Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAINE-22 Off-shore from 03 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC to 05 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAINE-22

Off-shore

04 Oct 2022 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (04 Oct 16:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	61 km/h	0.3 m	21 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	79 km/h	0.3 m	346 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	03 Oct 2022 18:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Oct 2022 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	04 Oct 2022 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Oct 2022 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	03 Oct 2022 18:00	308	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Oct 2022 00:00	73	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	04 Oct 2022 06:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Oct 2022 12:00	407	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 04 Oct 2022 16:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Oct 2022 16:15	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2022 16:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2022 16:30	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 12:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 12:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 14:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 14:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 17:15	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 12:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 12:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 12:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 12:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 12:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 14:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 14:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 18:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 16:00	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 16:00	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 16:00	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 18:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 15:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 15:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:00	Tierra Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 18:00	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 15:30	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:15	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Signal Hill	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Belmont Shore	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Surfside	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Seal Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Huntington Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Newport Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	San Pedro	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	Wilmington	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 18:00	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 13:30	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 13:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:15	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 15:45	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:30	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 18:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 15:30	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 15:45	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Azure Vista	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Ocean Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Fort Rosecrans	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Roseville	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Loma Portal	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	San Diego	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Coronado	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Imperial Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Boal	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	Clifton	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	Redondo Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	Rancho Palos Verdes	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	Rolling Hills Estates	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:30	Rolling Hills	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	The Muirlands	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Mission Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 17:45	Campland on the Bay Trailer Park	United States	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 13:15	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 13:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.