Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
02 Feb 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 47 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (02 Feb 04:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 47 km/h 0.4 m 13 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 1.1 m 444 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia08 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Feb 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia, Australia2,213
+
Indonesia2,200 
Australia13 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Australia4,148,065
+
Indonesia4,141,857 
Australia6,208 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Christmas Island, Australia35,844,798
+
Indonesia35,828,783 
Christmas Island1,419 
Australia14,596 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 00:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 12:00 13 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Feb 2021 00:00 291 4.2 million
- - - Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Point Samson, Australia. This height is estimated for 02 Feb 2021 04:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02 Feb 2021 04:30 Point Samson Australia  0.4
02 Feb 2021 04:30 Cossack Australia  0.4
02 Feb 2021 05:15 Dampier Australia  0.3
02 Feb 2021 05:15 Karratha Australia  0.3
02 Feb 2021 04:15 Wickham Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 21:30 Learmonth Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 10:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 07:30 Mardie Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 04:30 Onslow Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 16:45 Warroora Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 17:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 15:30 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 16:45 Cardabia Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 16:00 Quobba Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:00 Guring Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:00 Kota Agung Indonesia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 04:00 Glenroy Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Dalyellup Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Bunbury Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Binningup Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Picton Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Eaton Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Burragenup Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Australind Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Vasse Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Broadwater Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Busselton Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Wonnerup Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Ludlow Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 18:00 Exmouth Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 04:30 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Myalup Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 16:00 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 23:45 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 21:45 Carnarvon Australia  0.1