Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
03 Feb 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.4 m (06 Feb 07:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 61 km/h 1.4 m 17 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 1.1 m 444 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia51 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Feb 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 03 Feb 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 03 Feb 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia905 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Australia2,586,525
+
Indonesia2,585,703 
Australia822 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Christmas Island, Australia23,796,457
+
Indonesia23,761,548 
Christmas Island1,419 
Australia33,490 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 00:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 12:00 13 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Feb 2021 00:00 13 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 03 Feb 2021 00:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 03 Feb 2021 12:00 325 2.6 million
- - - Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

1.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.4m in Hamelin Pool, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2021 07:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2021 07:45 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.4
06 Feb 2021 07:45 Hamelin Australia  1.4
06 Feb 2021 09:15 Gladstone Australia  1.2
06 Feb 2021 09:00 Nanga Australia  1.1
06 Feb 2021 09:15 Carrarang Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 09:15 Tamala Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 09:00 Shark Bay Australia  0.9
06 Feb 2021 09:00 Monkey Mia Australia  0.9
06 Feb 2021 01:15 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 01:15 Useless Loop Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 08:30 Denham Australia  0.7
06 Feb 2021 03:30 Carnarvon Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 09:00 Kalbarri Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 04:45 Dampier Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 04:45 Karratha Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 04:00 Wickham Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 09:30 Gregory Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 04:15 Point Samson Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 04:15 Cossack Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 21:00 Quobba Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 19:30 Mardie Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 16:45 Learmonth Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 21:15 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 08:45 Lynton Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 18:45 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 18:30 Guring Indonesia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 18:30 Kota Agung Indonesia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 17:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 05:45 Onslow Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 08:15 Horrocks Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 16:45 Warroora Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 20:00 Cardabia Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 12:00 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 05:00 Glenroy Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 06:30 Exmouth Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 12:00 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 18:30 Bandjaragung Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 18:30 Waiharoe Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 18:30 Karangberak Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Muntjar Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1