Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




2021-02-04 21:06


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 18S SIO 210204202241
2021020418 18S EIGHTEEN 018 01 235 03 SATL 040
T000 248S 1131E 035 R034 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 253S 1127E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 263S 1126E 035 R034 000 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 277S 1128E 040 R034 020 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 24.8S 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.3S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.3S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.7S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 113.0E.
04FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
1821012818 159S1266E 15
1821012900 164S1261E 15
1821012906 168S1258E 20
1821012912 172S1256E 20
1821012918 176S1254E 20
1821013000 179S1251E 25
1821013006 183S1246E 30
1821013012 187S1240E 30
1821013018 192S1235E 30
1821013100 201S1229E 30
1821013106 210S1223E 30
1821013112 214S1211E 30
1821013118 213S1202E 30
1821020100 207S1194E 30
1821020106 206S1190E 30
1821020112 211S1181E 30
1821020118 215S1171E 30
1821020200 222S1163E 30
1821020206 229S1157E 30
1821020212 236S1151E 30
1821020218 240S1145E 30
1821020300 238S1144E 30
1821020306 239S1143E 30
1821020312 238S1144E 30
1821020318 238S1148E 30
1821020400 243S1143E 30
1821020406 244S1137E 35
1821020412 246S1134E 35
1821020418 248S1131E 35
NNNN

>

2021-02-04 21:05


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 24.8S 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.3S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.3S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.7S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 113.0E.
04FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
EAST OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CENTER IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 34NM WEST OF CARNARVON, WHICH IS REPORTING SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) OF 24 KNOTS AND A MSLP OF 996MB,
WHICH TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO A 35-40 KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE. A
041354Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS
OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE FIELD OF STABLE,
COOL-AIR STRATOCUMULUS AS EVIDENT IN EIR. OVERALL, THIS DATA
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) WIND SHEAR
(VWS), SPEED DIVERGENCE INTO THE WESTERLIES OFFSET TO THE SOUTH, AND
MARGINAL SST VALUES (25-26C). TC 18S WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AS A
STR BUILDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DUE TO THE
SOUTHWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES WITH INCREASING VWS (30-45 KNOTS). TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-02-04 08:57


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 18S SIO 210204082619
2021020406 18S EIGHTEEN 016 01 260 06 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 244S 1137E 035 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 245S 1131E 035 R034 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 249S 1127E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 261S 1127E 035 R034 020 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 276S 1131E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 24.4S 113.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 113.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.5S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.9S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.1S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.6S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 113.6E.
04FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
128 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
1821012818 159S1266E 15
1821012900 164S1261E 15
1821012906 168S1258E 20
1821012912 172S1256E 20
1821012918 176S1254E 20
1821013000 179S1251E 25
1821013006 183S1246E 30
1821013012 187S1240E 30
1821013018 192S1235E 30
1821013100 201S1229E 30
1821013106 210S1223E 30
1821013112 214S1211E 30
1821013118 213S1202E 30
1821020100 207S1194E 30
1821020106 206S1190E 30
1821020112 211S1181E 30
1821020118 215S1171E 30
1821020200 222S1163E 30
1821020206 229S1157E 30
1821020212 236S1151E 30
1821020218 240S1145E 30
1821020300 238S1144E 30
1821020306 239S1143E 30
1821020312 238S1144E 30
1821020318 238S1148E 30
1821020400 243S1143E 30
1821020406 244S1137E 35
NNNN

>

2021-02-04 08:48


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 24.4S 113.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 113.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.5S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.9S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.1S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.6S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 113.6E.
04FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
128 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM
THE CARNARVON RADAR INDICATES THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
OVER LAND, OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CENTER IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 30NM NORTH OF CARNARVON, WHICH IS REPORTING SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) OF 24-27 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 37 KNOTS; THE MINIMUM SLP THUS FAR IS 991.8MB, WHICH TYPICALLY
CORRESPONDS TO A 35-40 KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH A 24-HOUR
DECREASE OF 5.0MB. A 040215Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE
SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE FIELD OF STABLE, COOL-AIR STRATOCUMULUS AS EVIDENT IN
MSI. OVERALL, THIS DATA SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
35 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND POLEWARD VENTING
INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MARGINAL SST VALUES (26C) WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 18S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS A STR BUILDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WITH INCREASING VWS (30-45 KNOTS),
WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU
48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-03 01:53


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 030300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 24.2S 114.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 114.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.5S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.7S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.2S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.3S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.6S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 114.4E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
116 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED ITS DEEP
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS IT TRACKED OVER LAND SOUTH OF LEARMONTH.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FEATURE EVIDENT ON AN ABOM COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP THAT ALSO SHOWED ORGANIZED RAIN BANDS FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH
WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 18S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAS. AFTERWARD, THE
STORM MOTION WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) AS A SECONDARY STR
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING, RESULTING IN A
VERY SLOW WESTWARD TRACK TO TAU 36 AS THE TC EXITS INTO THE
INDIAN OCEAN. AFTER TAU 36, THE SECONDARY STR WEAKENS, ALLOWING
THE PRIMARY STR TO RESUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE TC SOUTHWESTWARD
THEN SOUTHWARD. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE IT
TRACKS OVER LAND BUT WILL INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS AFTER IT EXITS INTO
THE WARM (28C) INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARM SST PLUS LOW VWS WILL PROMOTE
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD,
COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING; HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE QS MOTION IN THE MID-PORTION, LENDS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z,
031500Z AND 032100Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TECHNICAL ERRORS IN THE
WARNING AND IN THE REMARKS SECTIONS OF PARAGRAPH 1.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-02 22:21


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 022100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 24.2S 114.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 114.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.5S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.7S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.2S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.3S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.6S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 114.4E.
02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
116 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED ITS DEEP
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS IT TRACKED OVER LAND SOUTH OF LEARMONTH.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FEATURE EVIDENT ON AN ABOM COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP THAT ALSO SHOWED ORGANIZED RAIN BANDS FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH
WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 18S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAS. AFTERWARD, THE
STORM MOTION WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) AS A SECONDARY STR
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING, RESULTING IN A
VERY SLOW WESTWARD TRACK TO TAU 36 AS THE TC EXITS INTO THE
INDIAN OCEAN. AFTER TAU 36, THE SECONDARY STR WEAKENS, ALLOWING
THE PRIMARY STR TO RESUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE TC SOUTHWESTWARD
THEN SOUTHWARD. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE IT
TRACKS OVER LAND BUT WILL INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS AFTER IT EXITS INTO
THE WARM (28C) INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARM SST PLUS LOW VWS WILL PROMOTE
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD,
COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING; HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE QS MOTION IN THE MID-PORTION, LENDS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z,
031500Z AND 032100Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TECHNICAL ERRORS IN THE
WARNING AND IN THE REMARKS SECTIONA OF PARAGRAPH 1.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-01 13:44


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 18S SIO 210201124007
2021020112 18S EIGHTEEN 005 01 240 10 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 211S 1181E 030
T012 218S 1162E 030
T024 224S 1148E 030
T036 226S 1137E 035 R034 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 225S 1130E 040 R034 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T072 225S 1122E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 240S 1121E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 261S 1125E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 21.1S 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.8S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.4S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.6S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.5S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.5S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.0S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 117.6E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
56 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
1821012818 159S1266E 15
1821012900 164S1261E 15
1821012906 168S1258E 20
1821012912 172S1256E 20
1821012918 176S1254E 20
1821013000 179S1251E 25
1821013006 183S1246E 30
1821013012 187S1240E 30
1821013018 192S1235E 30
1821013100 201S1229E 30
1821013106 210S1223E 30
1821013112 214S1211E 30
1821013118 213S1202E 30
1821020100 207S1194E 30
1821020106 206S1190E 30
1821020112 211S1181E 30
NNNN

>

2021-02-01 13:23


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 21.1S 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.8S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.4S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.6S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.5S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.5S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.0S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 117.6E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
56 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011100Z SSMIS 91GHZ DEPICT
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PORT HEDLAND
RADAR INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THUS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT HEDLAND,
WHICH IS REPORTING GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE OF 997MB.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA.
AFTER TAU 24, THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
COMPLEX WITH ANOTHER STR BUILDING WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY,
TC 18S SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL A BROAD TROUGH FORMS WEST OF
AUSTRALIA, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND WHILE ALL TRACKERS DEPICT THE SOUTHWARD TURN THERE
ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SOUTHWARD
TURN. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE IT TRACKS OVER LAND ALONG THE
COAST BUT WILL INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES THE EXMOUTH
PENINSULA AND LEARMONTH SOLAR OBSERVATORY. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 96
WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SST. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-01 08:34


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 18S SIO 210201074300
2021020106 18S EIGHTEEN 004 01 285 04 SATL RADR SYNP 015
T000 206S 1190E 030
T012 210S 1169E 030
T024 216S 1152E 030
T036 221S 1142E 035 R034 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 224S 1130E 040 R034 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 222S 1113E 045 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 236S 1107E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 253S 1112E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.6S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.0S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.6S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.1S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.4S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.2S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.6S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.3S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 118.5E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
29 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
1821012818 159S1266E 15
1821012900 164S1261E 15
1821012906 168S1258E 20
1821012912 172S1256E 20
1821012918 176S1254E 20
1821013000 179S1251E 25
1821013006 183S1246E 30
1821013012 187S1240E 30
1821013018 192S1235E 30
1821013100 201S1229E 30
1821013106 210S1223E 30
1821013112 214S1211E 30
1821013118 213S1202E 30
1821020100 207S1194E 30
1821020106 206S1190E 30
NNNN

>

2021-02-01 08:32


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.6S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.0S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.6S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.1S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.4S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.2S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.6S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.3S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 118.5E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
29 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR INDICATES A WELL-
ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. A 010619Z PARTIAL AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM PORT HEDLAND, WHICH IS REPORTING GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WITH A
SLP VALUE OF 994MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE STEERING PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMPLEX WITH ANOTHER STR BUILDING WEST OF
THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 18S SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL A
BROAD TROUGH FORMS WEST OF AUSTRALIA, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THIS SCENARIO WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND WHILE ALL TRACKERS DEPICT THE
SOUTHWARD TURN THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THIS SOUTHWARD TURN. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX, EVOLVING
STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE IT
TRACKS OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS AS
IT APPROACHES THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA AND LEARMONTH SOLAR OBSERVATORY.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96 WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z
AND 020900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-01 02:47


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 18S SIO 210201021324
2021020100 18S EIGHTEEN 003 01 315 10 SATL 060
T000 206S 1190E 030
T012 210S 1171E 030
T024 216S 1152E 030
T036 223S 1138E 035 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 224S 1127E 040 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD
T072 223S 1112E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 236S 1099E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 261S 1100E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.0S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.6S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.3S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.3S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.6S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.1S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 118.5E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
29 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
//
1821012818 159S1266E 15
1821012900 164S1261E 15
1821012906 168S1258E 20
1821012912 172S1256E 20
1821012918 176S1254E 20
1821013000 179S1251E 25
1821013006 183S1246E 30
1821013012 187S1240E 30
1821013018 192S1235E 30
1821013100 201S1229E 30
1821013106 210S1223E 30
1821013112 214S1211E 30
1821013118 213S1198E 30
1821020100 206S1190E 30
NNNN

>

2021-02-01 02:46


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.0S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.6S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.3S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.3S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.6S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.1S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 118.5E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
29 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-01-31 20:48


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 18S SIO 210131200009
2021013118 18S EIGHTEEN 002 01 275 12 SATL 050
T000 213S 1198E 030
T012 215S 1177E 030
T024 220S 1158E 030
T036 226S 1141E 030
T048 231S 1129E 040 R034 080 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 229S 1112E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 236S 1098E 045 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 256S 1096E 040 R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 21.3S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.5S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.0S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 22.6S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 23.1S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.6S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.6S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 119.3E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
90 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
//
1821012818 159S1266E 15
1821012900 164S1261E 15
1821012906 168S1258E 20
1821012912 172S1256E 20
1821012918 176S1254E 20
1821013000 179S1251E 25
1821013006 183S1246E 30
1821013012 187S1240E 30
1821013018 192S1235E 30
1821013100 201S1229E 30
1821013106 210S1223E 30
1821013112 214S1211E 30
1821013118 213S1198E 30
NNNN

>

2021-01-31 20:47


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 21.3S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.5S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.0S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 22.6S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 23.1S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.6S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.6S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 119.3E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTHEAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-01-31 14:13


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301451ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.5S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.7S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.2S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.8S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.7S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.7S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 120.6E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 394 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED ON MULTIPLE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 18S IS TRACKING OVER LAND
THROUGH WESTERN AUSTRALIA, HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST, IN
ADDITION TO A SECONDARY STR TO THE EAST. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND
INTENSIFY ONLY MINIMALLY TO 35 KTS BY TAU 48, AT AT
WHICH POINT IT WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH CONTINUED
LOW VWS AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL LEAD TO
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY
TAU 72. THEREAFTER, MODERATE (20-25) VWS AND COOLER SST
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH TC 18S
TRACKING SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 96 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96 BUT DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN THEREAFTER. THIS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ON
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z,
010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 301500).//
NNNN

>

2021-01-31 14:10


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 18S SIO 210131133518
2021013112 18S EIGHTEEN 001 01 240 15 SATL 060
T000 214S 1211E 030
T012 215S 1192E 030
T024 217S 1174E 030
T036 222S 1156E 030
T048 228S 1142E 035
T072 227S 1123E 050 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 227S 1111E 045 R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 238S 1107E 040 R034 170 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.5S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.7S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.2S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.8S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.7S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.7S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 120.6E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
394 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
//
1821012818 159S1266E 15
1821012900 164S1261E 15
1821012906 168S1258E 20
1821012912 172S1256E 20
1821012918 176S1254E 20
1821013000 179S1251E 25
1821013006 183S1246E 30
1821013012 187S1240E 30
1821013018 192S1235E 30
1821013100 201S1229E 30
1821013106 207S1225E 30
1821013112 214S1211E 30
NNNN

>