Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DANILO-21 in , Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 01 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC to 09 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DANILO-21

in , Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DANILO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	97 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (02 Jan 18:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	97 km/h	0.2 m	27 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	137 km/h	0.4 m	628 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 02 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	01 Jan 2021 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	02 Jan 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	02 Jan 2021 06:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	02 Jan 2021 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	02 Jan 2021 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 02 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	01 Jan 2021 18:00	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	02 Jan 2021 00:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	02 Jan 2021 06:00	38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	02 Jan 2021 12:00	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	02 Jan 2021 18:00	563	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Maniroka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 02 Jan 2021 18:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	02 Jan 2021 18:30	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.2
	02 Jan 2021 18:30	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.2
	02 Jan 2021 18:30	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.2
	02 Jan 2021 18:30	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.2
	02 Jan 2021 18:45	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:45	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:45	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:45	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 19:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 19:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 19:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 19:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 19:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:45	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:30	Ambodipont-Sahana	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:30	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:30	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:30	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:30	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:15	Antongompatatra	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:15	Bemanevika	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:15	Sambava	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:15	Farahalana	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2021 18:15	Antohamaro	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.