Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DANILO-21
in , Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

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Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100709
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 40/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 60.4 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

24H: 11/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

36H: 11/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 12/01/2021 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 12/01/2021 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A FAIBLI ET UN VORTEX DE SURFACE EST CLAIREMENT
APPARENT. LA PASSE ASCAT ET LA PRESENCE D'UNE DEUXIEME FAIBLE VORTEX
AU NORD DE LA CIRCULATION POURRAIT SUGGERER QUE LE CENTRE
DEPRESSIONAIRE REEL SE SITUE PLUS AU NORD. LA POSITION SERA
EVENTUELLEMENT REAJUSTEE A 12Z. LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT NE MONTRENT
PAS DE GRAND FRAIS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE,
DANILO SE DIRIGE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS LES
MASCAREIGNES. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE MAURICE LA NUIT PROCHAINE PUIS DANS LA
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI DE LA REUNION.

A PARTIR D'AUJOURD'HUI, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE SE MET EN
PLACE COTE POLAIRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT LEGEREMENT PLUS HUMIDE. LA CONVECTION POURRAIT AINSI SE
MAITENIR DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD NOTAMMENT LA NUIT PAR EFFET DU CYCLE
DIURNE SUR MER.

LUNDI SOIR, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DISPARAIT. DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
DE NOUVEAU PEU FAVORABLE, LA CYCLOLYSE DEFINITIVE DE CE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU ENTRE LA REUNION ET MADAGASCAR.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST
ATTENDUE AVEC DES FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES ET DES RAFALES NOTAMMENT EN
ALTITUDE. NEANMOINS CES IMPACTS DEPENDRONT FORTEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE REELLE DU PHENOMENE. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD POURRAIT
LIMITER CES IMPACTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100709
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/6/20202021
1.A REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 60.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

24H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2021/01/12 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/01/12 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENED AND A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS CLAIRLY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITES IMAGES. ASCAT DATA THE EXISTENCE OF A SMALL
SECONDARY VORTEX NORTH MAY SUGGEST THAT THE LOWEST PRESSURE MAY BE
NORTH OF THE CURRENT ESTIMATED CENTER. ITS LOCATION MAY BE ADJUSTED
AT 12Z. LAST ASCAT SWATH DO NOT SHOW ANY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, DANILO IS
TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MASCARENES. THIS
TRACK SHOULD BRING DANILO IN THE VICINITY OF MAURITIUS TONIGHT AND
REUNION ISLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TODAY, A BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD DEVELOP POLEWARD AHEAD
OF A MID-LATITUDES UPPER TROUGH WITHIN A SLIGHTLY LESS DRY
ENVIRONMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STILL OCCUR IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT GIVEN THE DIURNAL CYCLE
OVER SEA.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE DISAPPEARS. WITHIN THESE
UNCONDUCIVE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE BETWEEN LA
REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER GROUNDS. HOWEVER THESE THREATS WILL BE TIGHTLY RELATED TO THE
REAL TRACK OF THIS PHENOMENA. A SOUTHWARD TRACK IS LIEKLY TO REDUCE
THE EFFECTS OF DANILO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100628
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 60.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TOP 250NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/10 AT 18 UTC:
19.8 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

24H, VALID 2021/01/11 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100021
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 39/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 61.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

24H: 11/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

36H: 11/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 12/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 12/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 13/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
UNE POUSSEE CONVECTIVE PLUS ACTIVE QUE PRECEDEMMENT A REUSSI A SE
DECLENCHER PRES DU CENTRE ET A SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES
HEURES. ELLE RESTE CEPENDANT LOCALISEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD. EN
L'ABSENCE DE CISAILLEMENT ET AVEC UNE DIVERGENCE EN AUGMENTATION (CF
CIMSS ANALYSIS), CETTE LEGERE AMELIORATION DE LA PRESENTATION
SATELLITE POURRAIT SE CONFIRMER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE,
DANILO SE DIRIGE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS LES
MASCAREIGNES. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER A
PROXIMITE NORD OU SUR LES MASCAREIGNES : LUNDI POUR L'ILE MAURICE
PUIS DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI POUR LA REUNION. LES DERNIERES
RESEAUX DETERMINISTES ET L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN SUGGERENT DEUX SCENARIOS
A PARTIR DE LUNDI : LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE POURRAIT PARTIR PLEIN
OUEST OU CONTINUER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE
FAVORISE CETTE DERNIERE OPTION, REPRESENTEE PAR PLUS DE MEMBRES DE
L'EPS.

A PARTIR D'AUJOURD'HUI, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE SE MET EN
PLACE COTE POLAIRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT LEGEREMENT PLUS HUMIDE. LA CONVECTION POURRAIT AINSI
COMMENCER A SE REDEVELOPPER AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE.
CEPENDANT, LES GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE NE PROPOSENT PLUS DE
REINTENSIFICATION DE DANILO EN LIEN AVEC CETTE AMELIORATION DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES.
LUNDI SOIR, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DISPARAIT. DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
DE NOUVEAU PEU FAVORABLE, LA CYCLOLYSE DEFINITIVE DE CE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU ENTRE LA REUNION ET MADAGASCAR.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST
ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE PLUIES :

- POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, LA DEGRADATION PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE DEVRAIT SE
PROLONGER ENCORE AUJOURD'HUI. LES CUMULS DE PLUIE PREVUS AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H DA PASSENT ENCORE LES 50 MM.

- EN CE QUI CONCERNE LE SECTEUR MAURICE-REUNION, DANILO DEVRAIT
PASSER A PROXIMITE, VOIRE SUR CES ILES, ENTRE CE SOIR (ARRIVEE SUR
MAURICE) ET MARDI (ELOIGNEMENT DE LA REUNION). NOUS INVITONS LES
POPULATIONS DE CES ILES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DES PREVISIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100021
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/6/20202021
1.A REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 61.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

24H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2021/01/12 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/01/12 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/01/13 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE BURST MANAGED TO TRIGGER NEAR THE CENTER AND
MAINTAIN OVER THE LAST 6 HRS. IT REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT. WITH NO SHEAR AND WITH AN UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASING
POLEWARD (CF CIMSS ANALYSIS), THIS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE SAT
PRESENTATION COULD CONFIRM OVER THE NEXT HOURS.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, DANILO IS
TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MASCARENES. THIS
TRACK SHOULD BRING DANILO IN THE NORTHERN VICINITY OF THE MASCARENES
: MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR LA REUNION. THE LAST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO SCENARIOS FROM MONDAY
: THE RESIDUAL LOW COULD TURN WESTWARD OR CONTINUE ON ITS
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE LATTER
OPTION, CHOSEN BY THE MAJORITY OF THE EPS MEMBERS.

FROM TODAY, A BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD DEVELOP POLEWARD AHEAD
OF A MID-LATITUDES UPPER TROUGH WITHIN A SLIGHTLY LESS DRY
ENVIRONMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, CONVECTION COULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP WITHIN
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCES AVAILABLE
DO NOT FORECAST ANY REINTENSIFICATION ANY MORE, EVEN TEMPORARY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE DISAPPEARS. WITHIN THESE
UNCONDUCIVE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE BETWEEN LA
REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES THIS WEEK-END. A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL.

- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DEGRADATION SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT. FORECASTED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXCEED 50 MM OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

- FOR MAURITIUS-LA REUNION, DANILO SHOULD TRACK CLOSE, OR EVEN OVER,
THESE ISLANDS BETWEEN TONIGHT (ARRIVAL IN MAURITIUS) AND TUESDAY
(AWAY FROM LA REUNION). THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED
TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE WEATHER FORECASTS ISSUED BY THEIR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100013
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 040/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 61.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TOP 250NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/10 AT 12 UTC:
19.2 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

24H, VALID 2021/01/11 AT 00 UTC:
19.4 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091818
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 38/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6 S / 62.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/01/2021 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

24H: 10/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

36H: 11/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 11/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 12/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 12/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE DE DANILO
N'A PAS EVOLUE. SEULEMENT QUELQUES CELLULES CONVECTIVES ISOLEES SE
DECLENCHENT SPORADIQUEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PRES DU CENTRE. LA
CONVECTION EST PLUS FORTE LOIN AU SUD-EST, DANS LA CONVERGENCE DE
SURFACE OCCASIONNEE ENTRE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE ET LES
ALIZES. LE CENTRE DE DANILO PASSE ACTUELLEMENT SUR LA BOUEE OMM
5601578 QUI RELEVE UNE PRESSION CORRIGEE DE 1003HPA. LA PASSE ASCAT-B
COUVRE UNE LARGE PARTIE DE LA CIRCULATION DE DANILO ET NE MONTRE PLUS
DE VENTS DE FORCE GRAND FRAIS.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE,
DANILO VA SE DIRIGER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS
LES MASCAREIGNES. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER A
PROXIMITE NORD OU SUR LES MASCAREIGNES : LUNDI POUR L'ILE MAURICE
PUIS DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI POUR LA REUNION. LES DERNIERES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES ONT EU TENDANCE A SE DECALER VERS LE NORD,
PROPOSANT AINSI UN PASSAGE LEGEREMENT PLUS AU LARGE DES MASCAREIGNES.

A COURT TERME, L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EMPECHE LA CONVECTION
DE SE METTRE EN PLACE. TOUTEFOIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE SE MET EN PLACE COTE POLAIRE, A L'AVANT D'UN
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. DANS LE MEME TEMPS, UNE ALIMENTATION HUMIDE DE
BASSES COUCHES POURRAIT SE REMETTRE EN PLACE. CEPENDANT, LES
GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE LES PLUS RECENTES NE PROPOSENT PLUS DE
REINTENSIFICATION DE DANILO EN LIEN AVEC CETTE AMELIORATION DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, MEME TEMPORAIRE.
LUNDI SOIR, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DISPARAIT. DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
DE NOUVEAU PEU FAVORABLE, LA CYCLOLYSE DEFINITIVE DE CE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU ENTRE LA REUNION ET MADAGASCAR.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST
ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE PLUIES :

- POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, LA DEGRADATION PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE DEVRAIT SE
PROLONGER CETTE NUIT PROCHAINE. PAS DE RAFALES VRAIMENT REMARQUABLES
ATTENDUES MAIS DES CUMULS DE PLUIE POTENTIELLEMENT GENERALISES
POUVANT DA PASSER 50 MM SUR 24 HEURES.

- EN CE QUI CONCERNE LE SECTEUR MAURICE-REUNION, DANILO DEVRAIT
PASSER A PROXIMITE, VOIRE SUR CES ILES, ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR (ARRIVEE
SUR MAURICE) ET MARDI (ELOIGNEMENT DE LA REUNION). NOUS INVITONS LES
POPULATIONS DE CES ILES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DES PREVISIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/6/20202021
1.A REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 62.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

24H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/01/12 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/01/12 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, DANILO'S SAT PRESENTATION DID NOT EVOLVE WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERING NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CONVECTION IS STRONGER IN THE
SOUTH-EAST, ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
AND THE TRADE WINDS. DANILO'S CENTER IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER OMM
BUOY 5601578 WHICH MEASURES 1003HPA. THE ASCAT-B SWATH COVERS A LARGE
PART OF DANILO'S CIRCULATION AND DOES NOT SHOW NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
ANY MORE.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, DANILO IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
MASCARENES. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING DANILO IN THE NORTHERN VICINITY
OF THE MASCARENES : MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR LA
REUNION. THE LAST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAVE ALL SLIGHTLY SHIFTED
NORTHWARD, AWAY FROM THE MASCARENES.

IN THE SHORT TERM, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PREVENTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY, A BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE APPEARS
POLEWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDES UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE, THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD TEMPORARILY BECOME LESS DRY. HOWEVER, THE MOST
RECENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE DO NOT FORECAST ANY REINTENSIFICATION ANY
MORE, EVEN TEMPORARY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE DISAPPEARS. WITHIN THESE
UNCONDUCIVE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE BETWEEN LA
REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES THIS WEEK-END. A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL.

- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DEGRADATION SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT. NO REALLY REMARKABLE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD EXCEED 50 MM OVER 24
HOURS.

- FOR MAURITIUS-LA REUNION, DANILO SHOULD TRACK CLOSE, OR EVEN OVER,
THESE ISLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT (ARRIVAL IN MAURITIUS) AND TUESDAY
(AWAY FROM LA REUNION). THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITERD
TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE WEATHER FORECASTS ISSUED BY THEIR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091807
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 62.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300-NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN
THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/10 AT 06 UTC:
18.9 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

24H, VALID 2021/01/10 AT 18 UTC:
19.1 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091258 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 63.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 10/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 110 NO: 0

36H: 11/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 185 NO: 0

48H: 11/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 185 NO: 0

60H: 12/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 110 NO: 0

72H: 12/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA POSITION DU CENTRE EST MAINTENANT BIEN DEFINIE, AVEC UNE
CIRCULATION COMPLETEMENT EXPOSEE. LA CONVECTION SE REFORME PAR
BOUFFEES LOIN DU CENTRE AU SEIN D'UNE LIGNE DE CONVERGENCE QUI ABORDE
L'ILE DE RODRIGUE, ALORS QUE CLE CENTRE EST EN TRAIN DE PASSE AU PLIS
PRES A PRES DE 200KM AU NORD.
LES DERNIERES DONNA ES ASCAT DE CE MATIN MAINTIENNENT DU GRAND FRAIS
SEULEMENT DANS LE CADRAN SUD-EST.
LE SYSTEME A ETE DECLASSE EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE A 30 KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION: DANILO VA GRADUELLEMENT SE
DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE EN DIRECTION DES MASCAREIGNES.
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER A PROXIMITE NORD OU
SUR LES ILES MAURICE PUIS LA REUNION ENTRE DIMANCHE ET MARDI. LE
CONSENSUS DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES A EU TENDANCE A RALENTIR
GLOBALEMENT LE TIMING ET A PRENDRE UNE OPTION UN PEU PLUS ZONALE
APRES LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE MAURICE.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE: A COURT TERME, L'ETAT TRES
DEGRADEE DE LA CIRCULATION DE DANIELO ET L'ABONDANCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE NE SONT PAS FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION
IMMEDIATE. TOUTEFOIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, DANILO POURRA BA NA FICIER
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ET D'UNE POSSIBLE MEILLEURE ALIMENTATION HUMIDE EN BASSE
COUCHE, QUI POURRAIT CONDUIRE AU MAINTIENT DE L'INTENSITA ACTUELLE
VOIRE LEGEREMENT SUPERIEURE. LA MAJORITE DES GUIDANCES ET LES MEMBRES
DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN SONT MAINTENANT EN
ACCORD AVEC CETTE EVOLUTION.
DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE SUD
DISPARAIT. PAR MANQUE DE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES ET ALORS QUE
L'ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE ASSEZ SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LA CYCLOLYSE
DEFINITIVE DE CE SYSTEME, SI ELLE NE SE PRODUIT PAS AVANT, DEVRAIT
AVOIR LIEU ENTRE LA REUNION ET MADAGASCAR.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST
ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE PLUIES.

- POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, LA DEGRADATION PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE DEVRAIT SE
PROLONGER LA NUIT PROCHAINE. PAS DE RAFALES VRAIMENT REMARQUABLES
ATTENDUES MAIS DES CUMULS DE PLUIE POTENTIELLEMENT GENERALISES
POUVANT DA PASSER 50 MM SUR 24 HEURES.

- EN CE QUI CONCERNE LE SECTEUR MAURICE-REUNION, LE TIMING DE PASSAGE
A PROXIMITE, VOIRE SUR CES ILES, DEVRAIT SE FAIRE ENTRE DIMANCHE
(ARRIVEE SUR MAURICE) ET MARDI (ELOIGNEMENT DE LA REUNION). NOUS
INVITONS LES POPULATIONS DE CES ILES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DES
PREVISIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091258 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/6/20202021
1.A REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 110 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 0

60H: 2021/01/12 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2021/01/12 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE POSITION OF THE CENTRE IS NOW WELL DEFINED, WITH A FULLY EXPOSED
CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTION IS REFORMING BY PUFFS FAR FROM THE CENTRE
WITHIN A LINE OF CONVERGENCE WHICH APPROACHES THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUE,
WHEREAS THE CENTRE IS PASSING CLOSE TO 200KM TO THE NORTH.
THE LATEST ASCAT DATA OF THIS MORNING MAINTAIN NEAR GALE FORCE ONLY
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO RESIDUAL
DEPRESSION AT 30 KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST: DANILO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. THIS TRACK SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS
CLOSE TO THE NORTH OR OVER THE MAURITIUS ISLAND AND THEN LA REUNION
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCES HAS TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE OVERALL TIMING AND TO TAKE A
MORE ZONAL OPTION AFTER THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, THE VERY DEGRADED
STATE OF DANIELO'S CIRCULATION AND THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN IMMEDIATE NTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM A
GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE POLEWARDS, IN FRONT OF AN UPPER LEVELS
TROUGH AND A POSSIBLE BETTER WET FEED IN THE LOW LAYERS, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ONE. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDEBOOKS AND MEMBERS OF THE OVERALL
FORECAST OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT THIS HYPOTHESIS.
IN THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE TO
THE SOUTH DISAPPEARS. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LAYERS AND WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE, THE DEFINITIVE CYCLOLYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM, IF IT DOES NOT
OCCUR BEFORE, SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN LA REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE
TO THE MASCARENES. A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINFALL.

- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DEGRADATION SHOULD WIN TODAY AND
CONTINUE NEXT NIGHT. NO REALLY REMARKABLE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD EXCEED 50 MM
OVER 24 HOURS.

- AS FAR AS THE MAURITIUS- LA REUNION SECTOR IS CONCERNED, THE TIMING
OF THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO OR EVEN ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
BETWEEN SUNDAY (ARRIVAL IN MAURITIUS) AND TUESDAY (AWAY FROM LA
REUNION). WE INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091204
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 038/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/10 AT 00 UTC:
18.7 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/10 AT 12 UTC:
19.2 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091050
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 63.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 10/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 165 NO: 0

36H: 10/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SO: 165 NO: 55

48H: 11/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SO: 165 NO: 55

60H: 11/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SO: 165 NO: 55

72H: 12/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA POSITION DU CENTRE EST MAINTENANT BIEN DEFINIE, AVEC UNE
CIRCULATION COMPLETEMENT EXPOSEE. LA CONVECTION SE REFORME PAR
BOUFFEES LOIN DU CENTRE AU SEIN D'UNE LIGNE DE CONVERGENCE QUI ABORDE
L'ILE DE RODRIGUE, ALORS QUE CLE CENTRE EST EN TRAIN DE PASSE AU PLIS
PRES A PRES DE 200KM AU NORD.
LES DERNIERES DONNA ES ASCAT DE CE MATIN MAINTIENNENT DU GRAND FRAIS
SEULEMENT DANS LE CADRAN SUD-EST.
LE SYSTEME A ETE DECLASSE EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE A 30 KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION: DANILO VA GRADUELLEMENT SE
DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE EN DIRECTION DES MASCAREIGNES.
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER A PROXIMITE NORD OU
SUR LES ILES MAURICE PUIS LA REUNION ENTRE DIMANCHE ET MARDI. LE
CONSENSUS DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES A EU TENDANCE A RALENTIR
GLOBALEMENT LE TIMING ET A PRENDRE UNE OPTION UN PEU PLUS ZONALE
APRES LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE MAURICE.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE: A COURT TERME, L'ETAT TRES
DEGRADEE DE LA CIRCULATION DE DANIELO ET L'ABONDANCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE NE SONT PAS FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION
IMMEDIATE. TOUTEFOIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, DANILO POURRA BA NA FICIER
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ET D'UNE POSSIBLE MEILLEURE ALIMENTATION HUMIDE EN BASSE
COUCHE, QUI POURRAIT CONDUIRE AU MAINTIENT DE L'INTENSITA ACTUELLE
VOIRE LEGEREMENT SUPERIEURE. LA MAJORITE DES GUIDANCES ET LES MEMBRES
DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN SONT MAINTENANT EN
ACCORD AVEC CETTE EVOLUTION.
DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE SUD
DISPARAIT. PAR MANQUE DE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES ET ALORS QUE
L'ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE ASSEZ SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LA CYCLOLYSE
DEFINITIVE DE CE SYSTEME, SI ELLE NE SE PRODUIT PAS AVANT, DEVRAIT
AVOIR LIEU ENTRE LA REUNION ET MADAGASCAR.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST
ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE PLUIES.

- POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, LA DEGRADATION PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE DEVRAIT SE
PROLONGER LA NUIT PROCHAINE. PAS DE RAFALES VRAIMENT REMARQUABLES
ATTENDUES MAIS DES CUMULS DE PLUIE POTENTIELLEMENT GENERALISES
POUVANT DA PASSER 50 MM SUR 24 HEURES.

- EN CE QUI CONCERNE LE SECTEUR MAURICE-REUNION, LE TIMING DE PASSAGE
A PROXIMITE, VOIRE SUR CES ILES, DEVRAIT SE FAIRE ENTRE DIMANCHE
(ARRIVEE SUR MAURICE) ET MARDI (ELOIGNEMENT DE LA REUNION). NOUS
INVITONS LES POPULATIONS DE CES ILES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DES
PREVISIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 63.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 165 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SW: 165 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SW: 165 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SW: 165 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/12 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE POSITION OF THE CENTRE IS NOW WELL DEFINED, WITH A FULLY EXPOSED
CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTION IS REFORMING BY PUFFS FAR FROM THE CENTRE
WITHIN A LINE OF CONVERGENCE WHICH APPROACHES THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUE,
WHEREAS THE CENTRE IS PASSING CLOSE TO 200KM TO THE NORTH.
THE LATEST ASCAT DATA OF THIS MORNING MAINTAIN NEAR GALE FORCE ONLY
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO RESIDUAL
DEPRESSION AT 30 KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST: DANILO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. THIS TRACK SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS
CLOSE TO THE NORTH OR OVER THE MAURITIUS ISLAND AND THEN LA REUNION
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCES HAS TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE OVERALL TIMING AND TO TAKE A
MORE ZONAL OPTION AFTER THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, THE VERY DEGRADED
STATE OF DANIELO'S CIRCULATION AND THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN IMMEDIATE NTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM A
GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE POLEWARDS, IN FRONT OF AN UPPER LEVELS
TROUGH AND A POSSIBLE BETTER WET FEED IN THE LOW LAYERS, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ONE. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDEBOOKS AND MEMBERS OF THE OVERALL
FORECAST OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT THIS HYPOTHESIS.
IN THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE TO
THE SOUTH DISAPPEARS. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LAYERS AND WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE, THE DEFINITIVE CYCLOLYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM, IF IT DOES NOT
OCCUR BEFORE, SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN LA REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE
TO THE MASCARENES. A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINFALL.

- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DEGRADATION SHOULD WIN TODAY AND
CONTINUE NEXT NIGHT. NO REALLY REMARKABLE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD EXCEED 50 MM
OVER 24 HOURS.

- AS FAR AS THE MAURITIUS- LA REUNION SECTOR IS CONCERNED, THE TIMING
OF THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO OR EVEN ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
BETWEEN SUNDAY (ARRIVAL IN MAURITIUS) AND TUESDAY (AWAY FROM LA
REUNION). WE INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090649
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 63.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 10/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 165 NO: 0

36H: 10/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SO: 165 NO: 55

48H: 11/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SO: 165 NO: 55

60H: 11/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SO: 165 NO: 55

72H: 12/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA POSITION DU CENTRE EST MAINTENANT BIEN DEFINIE, AVEC UNE
CIRCULATION COMPLETEMENT EXPOSE, AVEC LE CONVECTION LOIN DU CENTRE
PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST.
LES DERNIERES DONNA ES ASCAT MAINTIENNENT DU GRAND FRAIS SEULEMENT
DANS LE CADRAN SUD-EST. L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 30 KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION: DANILO VA GRADUELLEMENT SE
DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE EN DIRECTION DES MASCAREIGNES.
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER A PROXIMITE NORD OU
SUR LES ILES MAURICE PUIS LA REUNION ENTRE DIMANCHE ET MARDI. LE
CONSENSUS DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES A EU TENDANCE A RALENTIR
GLOBALEMENT LE TIMING ET A PRENDRE UNE OPTION UN PEU PLUS ZONALE
APRES LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE MAURICE.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE: A COURT TERME, L'ETAT TRES
DEGRADEE DE LA CIRCULATION DE DANIELO ET L'ABONDANCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE NE SONT PAS FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION
IMMEDIATE. TOUTEFOIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, DANILO POURRA BA NA FICIER
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ET D'UNE POSSIBLE MEILLEURE ALIMENTATION HUMIDE EN BASSE
COUCHE, QUI POURRAIT CONDUIRE AU MAINTIENT DE L'INTENSITA ACTUELLE
VOIRE LEGEREMENT SUPERIEURE.
NEANMOINS, LE STADE MINIMALE DE LA TEMPETE N'EST TOUTEFOIS QUASIMENT
PLUS SUGGERE PAR LA MAJORITE DES GUIDANCES ET LES MEMBRES DE LA
PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN,
SEUL LE MODELE AROME/18Z, ENVISAGE ENCORE CETTE HYPOTHESE.
DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE SUD
DISPARAIT. PAR MANQUE DE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES ET ALORS QUE
L'ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE ASSEZ SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LA CYCLOLYSE
DEFINITIVE DE CE SYSTEME, SI ELLE NE SE PRODUIT PAS AVANT, DEVRAIT
AVOIR LIEU ENTRE LA REUNION ET MADAGASCAR.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST
ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE PLUIES.

- POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, LA DEGRADATION DEVRAIT GAGNER AUJOURD'HUI ET
SE PROLONGER LA NUIT PROCHAINE. PAS DE RAFALES VRAIMENT REMARQUABLES
ATTENDUES MAIS DES CUMULS DE PLUIE POTENTIELLEMENT GENERALISES
POUVANT DA PASSER 50 MM SUR 24 HEURES.

- EN CE QUI CONCERNE LE SECTEUR MAURICE-REUNION, LE TIMING DE PASSAGE
A PROXIMITE, VOIRE SUR CES ILES, DEVRAIT SE FAIRE ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR
(ARRIVEE SUR MAURICE) ET MARDI (ELOIGNEMENT DE LA REUNION). NOUS
INVITONS LES POPULATIONS DE CES ILES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DES
PREVISIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 63.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 165 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SW: 165 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SW: 165 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 370 SW: 165 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/12 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE POSITION OF THE CENTRE IS NOW WELL DEFINED, WITH A FULLY EXPOSED
CIRCULATION, WITH CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTRE MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE LATEST ASCAT DATA MAINTAIN NEAR GALE FORCE ONLY IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST: DANILO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. THIS TRACK SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS
CLOSE TO THE NORTH OR OVER THE MAURITIUS ISLAND AND THEN LA REUNION
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCES HAS TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE OVERALL TIMING AND TO TAKE A
MORE ZONAL OPTION AFTER THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, THE VERY DEGRADED
STATE OF DANIELO'S CIRCULATION AND THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN IMMEDIATE NTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM A
GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE POLEWARDS, IN FRONT OF AN UPPER LEVELS
TROUGH AND A POSSIBLE BETTER WET FEED IN THE LOW LAYERS, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ONE, NEVERTHELESS, THE MINIMAL STAGE OF THE STORM IS ALMOST NO
LONGER SUGGESTED BY THE MAJORITY OF GUIDEBOOKS AND MEMBERS OF THE
OVERALL FORECAST OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE,
ONLY THE AROME/18Z MODEL, STILL CONSIDERS THIS HYPOTHESIS.
IN THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE TO
THE SOUTH DISAPPEARS. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LAYERS AND WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE, THE DEFINITIVE CYCLOLYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM, IF IT DOES NOT
OCCUR BEFORE, SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN LA REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE
TO THE MASCARENES. A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINFALL.

- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DEGRADATION SHOULD WIN TODAY AND
CONTINUE NEXT NIGHT. NO REALLY REMARKABLE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD EXCEED 50 MM
OVER 24 HOURS.

- AS FAR AS THE MAURITIUS- LA REUNION SECTOR IS CONCERNED, THE TIMING
OF THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO OR EVEN ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING (ARRIVAL IN MAURITIUS) AND TUESDAY (AWAY FROM
LA REUNION). WE INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090614
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 63.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
18.4 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/10 AT 06 UTC:
19.0 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210109013139
2021010900 08S DANILO 020 01 260 13 SATL 060
T000 184S 0642E 025
T012 190S 0624E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.0S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 63.8E.
09JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION
AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
090017Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW, WITH ONLY TWO DISCRETE CONVECTIVE TOWERS AMID
OTHERWISE SHALLOW CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 25 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY A FMEE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0/2.0 (25-30 KNOTS), AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.2. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT VWS IS GENERALLY LOW (5-10 KTS), HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE PROVIDING POOR OUTFLOW SUPPORT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING TO BETWEEN 26-27 DEG C. THE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS ALSO WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC.
TC DANILO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH 32NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 AS THIS SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER WATER.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FLAT, WITH THE 10-MEMBER COAMPS-TC
ENSEMBLE INDICATING AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A STEADY OR
WEAKENING TREND. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR, HI. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS
11 FEET.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010418 157S 763E 50
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010600 166S 760E 45
0821010606 165S 753E 40
0821010612 164S 745E 35
0821010618 163S 736E 35
0821010700 163S 727E 35
0821010706 163S 714E 35
0821010712 164S 702E 35
0821010718 167S 690E 40
0821010800 172S 680E 40
0821010806 176S 673E 35
0821010812 180S 666E 30
0821010818 182S 656E 30
0821010900 184S 642E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.0S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 63.8E.
09JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION
AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
090017Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW, WITH ONLY TWO DISCRETE CONVECTIVE TOWERS AMID
OTHERWISE SHALLOW CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 25 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY A FMEE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0/2.0 (25-30 KNOTS), AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.2. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT VWS IS GENERALLY LOW (5-10 KTS), HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE PROVIDING POOR OUTFLOW SUPPORT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING TO BETWEEN 26-27 DEG C. THE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS ALSO WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC.
TC DANILO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH 32NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 AS THIS SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER WATER.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FLAT, WITH THE 10-MEMBER COAMPS-TC
ENSEMBLE INDICATING AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A STEADY OR
WEAKENING TREND. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090054
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/6/20202021
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 64.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.0/2.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

24H: 10/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 55

36H: 10/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 55

48H: 11/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 35

60H: 11/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 35

72H: 12/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=1.0 CI=2.0

LA STRUCTURE DE DANILO RESTE TRES MAL DEFINIE AVEC UNE CIRCULATION
ALLONGEE ET UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EN BAISSE AUX EXTREMITES NORD ET
SUD DE LA CIRCULATION. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES (AMSR2 ET GPM)
MONTRENT QU'UN CENTRE UN PEU MIEUX DEFINI SEMBLE SE RECONSTITUER AU
SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION. LA CONFIANCE EN LA POSITION RESTE FAIBLE CAR
IL PARAIT ENCORE INCERTAIN QUE CE CENTRE DEVIENNE LE CENTRE PRINCIPAL
AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE. EN L'ABSENCE D'ELEMENT OBJECTIF, L'INTENSITE
EST LAISSEE A 25 KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION: DANILO VA GRADUELLEMENT SE
DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE EN DIRECTION DES MASCAREIGNES.
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER A PROXIMITE OU SUR
LES ILES MAURICE PUIS LA REUNION ENTRE DIMANCHE ET MARDI. LE
CONSENSUS DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES A EU TENDANCE A RALENTIR
GLOBALEMENT LE TIMING ET A PRENDRE UNE OPTION PLUS ZONALE APRES LE
PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE MAURICE.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE: A COURT TERME, L'ETAT TRES
DEGRADEE DE LA CIRCULATION DE DANIELO ET L'ABONDANCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE NE SONT PAS FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION
IMMEDIATE. TOUTEFOIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, DANILO POURRA BA NA FICIER
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ET D'UNE POSSIBLE MEILLEURE ALIMENTATION HUMIDE EN BASSE
COUCHE. CE SCENARIO QUI CONDUIT A UNE INTENSIFICATION PEU DURABLE DU
SYSTEME JUSQU'AU STADE MINIMALE DE LA TEMPETE, N'EST TOUTEFOIS
QUASIMENT PLUS SUGGERE PAR LA MAJORITE DES GUIDANCES ET LES MEMBRES
DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN. SEUL LES MODELES
AROME/12Z ET UKMO/12Z DONNENT ENCORE DU CREDIT A CETTE HYPOTHESE. SUR
CETTE PARTIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE FAVORISE
DONC LE SCENARIO LE PLUS DYNAMIQUE. IL EST A NOTER QUE LA CONFIANCE
EN LA PREVISION EST FAIBLE. DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI, LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE SUD DISPARAIT. PAR MANQUE DE CONVERGENCE
DE BASSES COUCHES ET ALORS QUE L'ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE ASSEZ SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LA CYCLOLYSE DEFINITIVE DE CE SYSTEME, SI ELLE
NE SE PRODUIT PAS AVANT, DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU ENTRE LA REUNION ET
MADAGASCAR.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST
ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE PLUIES.

- POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, LA DEGRADATION SE FAIT ATTENDRE MAIS DEVRAIT
GAGNER AUJOURD'HUI ET SE PROLONGER LA NUIT PROCHAINE. PAS DE RAFALES
VRAIMENT REMARQUABLES ATTENDUES MAIS DES CUMULS DE PLUIE
POTENTIELLEMENT GENERALISES POUVANT DA PASSER 50 MM SUR 24 HEURES.

- EN CE QUI CONCERNE LE SECTEUR MAURICE-REUNION, LE TIMING DE PASSAGE
A PROXIMITE, VOIRE SUR CES ILES, A PRIS DU RETARD ET DEVRAIT SE FAIRE
ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR (ARRIVEE SUR MAURICE) ET MARDI MATIN (ELOIGNEMENT
DE LA REUNION). NOUS INVITONS LES POPULATIONS DE CES ILES A SE TENIR
AU COURANT DES PREVISIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090054
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/6/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 64.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/2.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

24H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

60H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

72H: 2021/01/12 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/13 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.0 CI=2.0

THE STRUCTURE OF DANILO REMAINS VERY POORLY DEFINED WITH AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN EXTREMITIES. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMSR2 AND GPM) SHOW
THAT A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED CENTRE SEEMS TO BE RECONSTITUTING
ITSELF. CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION REMAINS LOW AS IT STILL SEEMS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS CENTRE WILL BECOME THE MAIN CENTRE DURING THE
DAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OBJECTIVE ELEMENT, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT
AT 25 KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST: DANILO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. THIS TRACK SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS
CLOSE TO OR OVER THE MAURITIUS ISLAND AND THEN LA REUNION BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCES
HAS TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE OVERALL TIMING AND TO TAKE A MORE ZONAL
OPTION AFTER THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, THE VERY DEGRADED
STATE OF DANIELO'S CIRCULATION AND THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN IMMEDIATE
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO
BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE POLEWARDS, IN FRONT OF AN
UPPER LEVELS TROUGH AND A POSSIBLE BETTER WET FEED IN THE LOW LAYERS.
THIS SCENARIO, WHICH LEADS TO AN UNSUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM UP TO THE MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM STAGE, IS HOWEVER HARDLY
SUGGESTED ANYMORE BY THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND MEMBERS OF THE
CENTRAL EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONLY THE AROME/12Z AND UKMO/12Z
MODELS STILL GIVE CREDIT TO THIS HYPOTHESIS. ON THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST, THE INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE FAVOURS THE MOST DYNAMIC
SCENARIO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW.
IN THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE TO
THE SOUTH DISAPPEARS. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LAYERS AND WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE, THE DEFINITIVE CYCLOLYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM, IF IT DOES NOT
OCCUR BEFORE, SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN LA REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE
TO THE MASCARENES. A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINFALL.

- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DEGRADATION IS DELAYED BUT SHOULD
WIN TODAY AND CONTINUE NEXT NIGHT. NO REALLY REMARKABLE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED BUT POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD
EXCEED 50 MM OVER 24 HOURS.

- AS FAR AS THE MAURITIUS- LA REUNION SECTOR IS CONCERNED, THE TIMING
OF THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO OR EVEN ON THESE ISLANDS HAS BEEN DELAYED AND
SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING (ARRIVAL IN MAURITIUS) AND
TUESDAY MORNING (AWAY FROM LA REUNION). WE INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF
THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090031
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 (DANILO) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 64.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS, REACHING LOCALLY 30
KT FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/09 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER

24H, VALID 2021/01/10 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210108132617
2021010812 08S DANILO 019 01 240 08 SATL 060
T000 180S 0666E 030
T012 182S 0652E 030
T024 186S 0637E 035 R034 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 193S 0616E 035 R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 200S 0595E 040 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 219S 0567E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 231S 0536E 035 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 244S 0511E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 66.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 66.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.2S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.6S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.3S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.0S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.9S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.1S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.4S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 66.2E.
08JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 542
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 08S HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST, AND NEARLY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. AT THE 1200Z HOUR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FLARING ONCE MORE, BUT REMAINS LIMITED IN SCOPE AND AREAL COVERAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VERY BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT IS SUPPORTED GENERALLY BY A PARTIAL 081210Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED SHALLOW BANDING WITH MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 30 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T2.0-T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS), AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.5. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WHILE VWS IS LOW (5-10 KTS) AND SSTS ARE WARM (27-28 DEG C), THERE IS MINIMAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AS EVIDENCED BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NO DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE LACK OF OUTFLOW HAS HINDERED SUSTAINED CORE CONVECTION, AND LED TO THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH 185NM SPREAD AT TAU 72 INCREASING TO 316NM AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS A WHOLE HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A CHANGE IN THE STORM MOTION OF THE PREVIOUS 12-HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING BUT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO STRONGER AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO. AS OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND DISSIPATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE-FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010418 157S 763E 50
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010600 166S 760E 45
0821010606 165S 753E 40
0821010612 164S 745E 35
0821010618 163S 736E 35
0821010700 163S 727E 35
0821010706 163S 714E 35
0821010712 164S 702E 35
0821010718 167S 690E 40
0821010800 172S 680E 40
0821010806 176S 673E 35
0821010812 180S 666E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081841
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/6/20202021
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 64.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.0/2.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

24H: 09/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 55

36H: 10/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 55

48H: 10/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35

60H: 11/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 35

72H: 11/01/2021 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/01/2021 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 13/01/2021 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=1.0 CI=2.0

LA STRUCTURE DE DANILO RESTE TRES MAL DEFINIE AVEC UNE CIRCULATION
ALLONGEE PRESENTANT ENCORE DES POLES DE CONVECTION PROFONDE A SES
EXTREMITES NORD-OUEST ET SUD-EST. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE RESTE PLUS
FORTE ET PERSISTANTE DANS LA PARTIE SUD-EST ... CE QUI PEUT LAISSER
CRAINDRE UNE REFORMATION DU CENTRE PLUS AU SUD MAIS NI LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES, NI LES PASS ASCAT RECENTES (MEME PARTIELLES) NE
SUGGERENT QUE C'EST LE CAS. LE CENTRE RESTE DONC LE BARYCENTRE DE LA
LARGE CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE DU SYSTEME. LES VENTS MAX ONT ETE
ABAISSES A 25 KT SUR LA BASE DES ASCAT PARTIELS QUI NE SUGGERENT QUE
DU 30 KT PRESENT DE FAA ON LOCALISE LOIN DU CENTRE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION: DANILO SE DEPLACE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN DIRECTION DES MASCAREIGNES. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER TRES PRES, VOIRE SUR LES ILES DE LA
REUNION ET DE MAURICE. CETTE PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN CONSENSUS DES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, DONT LES MEMBRES ENSEMBLISTES PASSANT AU SUD,
SONT DE MOINS EN MOINS NOMBREUX.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE: A COURT TERME, DANILO NE DEVRAIT
PAS RENCONTRER DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PROPICES A SON
INTENSIFICATION. EN EFFET, JUSQU'A LA FIN DE CE WEEK-END, DANILO
RENCONTRERA SUR SON PASSAGE UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE, SURTOUT
COUPLA E A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. TOUTEFOIS
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, DANILO POURRA BA NA FICIER D'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE,
ET D'UNE MEILLEURE ALIMENTATION HUMIDE EN BASSE COUCHE. CE SCENARIO
QUI CONDUIT A UNE INTENSIFICATION PEU DURABLE DU SYSTEME, EST
SUGGERE PAR CERTAINS MEMBRES DE L'EPS ET CERTAINS DETERMINISTES
(AROME). A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, DANILO DEVRAIT EGALEMENT RENCONTRER UN
POTENTIEL OCA ANIQUE MOINDRE AVEC DES EAUX MOINS CHAUDES, CE QUI
CONTRIBUERA A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET ENTRAINERA AINSI LE DEBUT DU
COMBLEMENT DEFINITIF DU METEORE.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE PROBABLE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE
PLUIES.

- POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, LA DEGRADATION DEVRAIT ARRIVER LA NUIT
PROCHAINE ET SE POURSUIVRE SAMEDI, AVEC DES CUMULS DE PLUIE
POTENTIELLEMENT GENERALISES POUVANT DA PASSER 50 MM SUR 24 HEURES.

- EN CE QUI CONCERNE LE SECTEUR MAURICE-REUNION, LE TIMING DE PASSAGE
A PROXIMITE, VOIRE SUR CES ILES, AVEC DEGRADATION NOTABLE DES
CONDITIONS METEROLOGIQUES DEVRAIT SE FAIRE POUR DIMANCHE/LUNDI. NOUS
INVITONS LES POPULATIONS DE CES ILES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DES
PREVISIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/6/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 64.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/2.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

24H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

60H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

72H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/12 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/01/13 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.0 CI=2.0

THE STRUCTURE OF DANILO REMAINS VERY POORLY DEFINED WITH AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION STILL SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION POLES AT ITS NORTH-WEST AND
SOUTH-EAST EXTREMITIES. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS STRONGER AND
PERSISTENT IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN PART ... WHICH MAY SUGGEST A
REFORMATION OF THE CENTRE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT NEITHER LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGES NOR RECENT (ALTHOUGH PARTIAL) ASCAT SWATHS SUGGEST THAT THIS
IS THE CASE. THE CENTRE REMAINS NEAR THE BARYCENTRE OF THE SYSTEM'S
WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 25
KT ON THE BASIS OF THE PARTIAL ASCAT WHICH SUGGEST THAT 30 KT WINDS
ARE ONLY PRESENT LOCALLY AND FAR FROM THE CENTRE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST RESONNING: DANILO IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM LOW TO MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. THIS TRACK SHOULD LEAD
DANILO TO COME VERY CLOSE TO, OR EVEN OVER THE ISLANDS OF LA REUNION
AND MAURITIUS. THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT
GUIDANCES, WHOSE MEMBERS TRACKING SOUTH TOGETHER ARE LESS AND LESS
NUMEROUS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, DANILO IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO ITS
INTENSIFICATION. INDEED, UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL
ENCOUNTER A SLIGHT CONSTRAINT ALOFT, ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY,
DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
THE POLAR COAST, IN FRONT OF A HIGH ALTITUDE TROUGH, AND A BETTER
MOIST FEED IN THE LOW LAYER. THIS SCENARIO, WHICH LEADS TO SOME
MODEST INTENSIFICATION, IS SUGGESTED BY SOME EPS MEMBERS AND SOME
DETERMINISTS MODELS (AROME). FROM WEDNESDAY, DANILO SHOULD ALSO
ENCOUNTER A LOWER OCEAN POTENTIAL WITH LESS WARM WATER, WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ITS WEAKENING AND THUS LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF THE
DEFINITIVE FILLING OF THE METEOR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO. A POSSIBLE DETERIORATION OF THE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY
IN TERMS OF RAIN.

- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DETERIORATION SHOULD ARRIVE NEXT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN EXCEED 50 MM OVER 24 HOURS.

- AS FOR THE SECTOR MAURITIUS-LA REUNION, THE TIMING OF PASSAGE NEAR,
OR OVER THESE ISLANDS, WITH SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DONE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE INVITE THE
POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081824
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 (DANILO) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 64.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH-EASTERN AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS, REACHING LOCALLY 30
KT FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
17.9 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER

24H, VALID 2021/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
18.7 S / 61.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081240
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/6/20202021
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 35 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 65.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 315 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 55

24H: 09/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 55

36H: 10/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 55

48H: 10/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 30 NO: 65

60H: 11/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 30 NO: 65

72H: 11/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 120 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/01/2021 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 55

120H: 13/01/2021 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA MASSE NUAGEUSE DE DANILO A
CONTINUA A SE DESORGANISER ET PRESENTE UNE CONFIGURATION DE ZONE
PERTURBEE SANS VERITABLE CENTRE BIEN DA FINI, AVEC UNE CIRCULATION DE
BASSE COUCHE ASSEZ LARGE ET ALLONGEE NORD-OUEST/SUD-EST COMME LE
MONTRENT LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES. LE CENTRE DE BASSE
COUCHE ANALYSE A ETE SITUE AU BARYCENTRE DES DEUX POLES CONVECTIFS,
DANS LA CONTINUITE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PRA CEDENTE (COMME LE LAISSE
SUPPOSER L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMI DE 1137Z).LE VENT MOYEN A ETE
MAINTENU A 30 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERLE SUD, ESSENTIELLEMENT LIE A LA
PERSISTANCE D'UN GRADIENT DE PRESSION AVEC LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO SE DEPLACE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN DIRECTION DES MASCAREIGNES. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER TRES PRES, VOIRE SUR LES ILES DE LA
REUNION ET DE MAURICE. CETTE PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN CONSENSUS DES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, DONT LES MEMBRES ENSEMBLISTES PASSANT AU SUD,
SONT DE MOINS EN MOINS NOMBREUX.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE: A COURT TERME, DANILO NE DEVRAIT
PAS RENCONTRER DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PROPICES A SON
INTENSIFICATION. EN EFFET, JUSQU'A LA FIN DE CE WEEK-END, DANILO
RENCONTRERA SUR SON PASSAGE UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE, SURTOUT
COUPLA E A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. TOUTEFOIS
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, DANILO POURRA BA NA FICIER D'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE,
ET D'UNE MEILLEURE ALIMENTATION HUMIDE EN BASSE COUCHE. CE SCENARIO
QUI CONDUIT A UNE INTENSIFICATION PEU DURABLE DU SYSTEME, EST
SUGGERE PAR CERTAINS MEMBRES DE L'EPS ET CERTAINS DETERMINISTES
(AROME). LE MODELE GFS PREVOIT UNE INTENSIFICATION DE DANILO PLUS TA
T, EN LE FAISANT PLONGER DAVANTAGE ET PLUS RAPIDEMENT VERS LE
SUD-OUEST. CE SCENARIO PARAIT IMPROBABLE AU VU DE LA STRUCTURE
ACTUELLE PARTICULIEREMENT DESORGANISEE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, DANILO
DEVRAIT EGALEMENT RENCONTRER UN POTENTIEL OCA ANIQUE MOINDRE AVEC DES
EAUX MOINS CHAUDES, CE QUI CONTRIBUERA A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET
ENTRAINERA AINSI LE DEBUT DU COMBLEMENT DEFINITIF DU METEORE.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE PROBABLE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE
PLUIES. POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, LA DEGRADATION DEVRAIT ARRIVER LA NUIT
PROCHAINE ET SE POURSUIVRE SAMEDI, AVEC DE POSSIBLES CUMULS DE PLUIE
POUVANT DA PASSER 50 MM SUR 24 HEURES.EN CE QUI CONCERNE LE SECTEUR
MAURICE-REUNION, LE TIMING DE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE, VOIRE SUR CES
ILES, AVEC DEGRADATION NOTABLE DES CONDITIONS METEROLOGIQUES DEVRAIT
SE FAIRE POUR DIMANCHE/LUNDI. NOUS INVITONS LES POPULATIONS DE CES
ILES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DES PREVISIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE
BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/6/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 65.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 315 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 30 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 30 NW: 65

72H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/12 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55

120H: 2021/01/13 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DANILO CLOUD MASS HAS CONTINUED TO
DISORGANIZE AND PRESENTS A DISTURBED ZONE PATTERN WITHOUT A WELL
DEFINED TRUE CENTER, WITH A FAIRLY BROAD AND ELONGATED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST LOW LAYER CIRCULATION AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES. THE LOW LAYER CENTER ANALYZED WAS LOCATED AT THE
CENTER OF THE TWO CONVECTIVE AREAS, IN THE CONTINUITY OF THE PREVIOUS
TRAJECTORY (AS SUGGESTED BY THE SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 1137Z). THE
MEAN WIND WAS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT IN THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE,
ESSENTIALLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, DANILO IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. THIS TRAJECTORY SHOULD LEAD DANILO
TO COME VERY CLOSE TO, OR EVEN OVER THE ISLANDS OF REUNION AND
MAURITIUS. THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES,
WHOSE MEMBERS TRACKING SOUTH TOGETHER ARE LESS AND LESS NUMEROUS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, DANILO IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO ITS
INTENSIFICATION. INDEED, UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL
ENCOUNTER A SLIGHT CONSTRAINT ALOFT, ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY,
DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
THE POLAR COAST, IN FRONT OF A HIGH ALTITUDE TROUGH, AND A BETTER WET
FEED IN THE LOW LAYER. THIS SCENARIO, WHICH LEADS TO AN UNSUSTAINABLE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, IS SUGGESTED BY SOME EPS MEMBERS AND
SOME DETERMINISTS MODELS (AROME). THE GFS MODEL PREDICTS AN EARLIER
INTENSIFICATION OF DANILO, BY MAKING IT DIVE FURTHER AND FASTER
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT
PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. FROM WEDNESDAY, DANILO SHOULD ALSO
ENCOUNTER A LOWER OCEAN POTENTIAL WITH LESS WARM WATER, WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ITS WEAKENING AND THUS LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF THE
DEFINITIVE FILLING OF THE METEOR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO. A POSSIBLE DETERIORATION OF THE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY
IN TERMS OF RAIN. FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DETERIORATION
SHOULD ARRIVE NEXT NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN EXCEED 50 MM OVER 24 HOURS. AS FOR
THE SECTOR MAURITIUS-MEETING, THE TIMING OF PASSAGE NEAR, OR EVEN ON
THESE ISLANDS, WITH SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE DONE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF THESE
ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081213
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 (DANILO) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 65.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT,
AND 260 NM IN THE NORTH-WEST QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/09 AT 00 UTC:
17.5 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/09 AT 12 UTC:
18.3 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080732
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 66.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 0

24H: 09/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 55

36H: 09/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 55

48H: 10/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 55

60H: 10/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SO: 35 NO: 65

72H: 11/01/2021 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 120 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/01/2021 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 530 SO: 390 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 165 NO: 75

120H: 13/01/2021 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 530 SO: 390 NO: 175

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIA RES HEURES, LA MASSE NUAGEUSE S'EST DISLOQUA E ET
PRESENTE UNE CONFIGURATION DE ZONE PERTURBEE SANS CENTRE BIEN DA
FINI, AVEC UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSE COUCHE ASSEZ LARGE ET ELONGEE
NORD-OUEST/SUD-EST. LE CENTRE DE BASSE COUCHE EST EN BORDURE
NORD-OUEST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE, COMME LE MONTRE
L'IMAGE MICRO ONDE AMSU-B DE 0454Z. LES DERNIERES PASSES ASCAT DE CE
MATIN RESTENT PARTIELLES ET DONNENT DES VALEURS DE L'ORDRE DE 25 A
30KT. DANS CES CONDITIONS LES VALEURS DE VENT MOYEN A 30KT SONT
ESSENTIELLEMENT LIEES A LA PERSISTANCE D'UN GRADIENT DE PRESSION AVEC
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO SE DEPLACE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU
COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES, PUIS AU DELA DANILO DEVRAIT INFLA
CHIR SA TRAJECTOIRE PLUS AU SUD-OUEST EN DIRECTION DES MASCAREIGNES
DU FAIT DU DECALAGE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST. A PARTIR DU
WEEK-END, DANILO DEVRAIT DONC S'ORIENTER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST ET
CETTE INFLECTION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER TRES
PRES, VOIRE SUR LES ILES DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE. CETTE PRESENTE
PREVISION EST UN CONSENSUS DES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, DONT LES
MEMBRES PASSANT AU SUD SONT DE MOINS EN MOINS NOMBREUX.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE: A COURT TERME, DANILO NE DEVRAIT
PAS RENCONTRER DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PROPICES A SON
INTENSIFICATION. EN EFFET, JUSQU'A LA FIN DE CE WEEK-END, DANILO
RENCONTRERA SUR SON PASSAGE UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE MODA RA E A
FORTE, COUPLA E A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.
TOUTEFOIS EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DANILO POURRA BA NA FICIER
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE, ET D'UNE MEILLEURE ALIMENTATION HUMIDE EN BASSE COUCHE.
CE SCENARIO QUI CONDUIT A UNE INTENSIFICATION PASSAGERE DU SYSTEME
EST SUGGERE PAR CERTAINS MEMBRES DE L'EPS ET CERTAINS DETERMINISTES.
LE MODELE GFS EST QUANT A LUI CONSIDERE COMME TROP REACTIF PAR
RAPPORT A L'ANALYSE ET FAIT INTENSIFIER DANILO TROP RAPIDEMENT (CE
QUI PARAIT IMPROBABLE AU VU DE LA STRUCTURE ACTUELLE PARTICULIEREMENT
DESORGANISEE) EN LE FAISANT PLONGER DAVANTAGE ET PLUS RAPIDEMENT VERS
LE SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, DANILO DEVRAIT EGALEMENT
RENCONTRER UN POTENTIEL OCA ANIQUE MOINDRE AVEC DES EAUX MOINS
CHAUDES, CE QUI CONTRIBUERA A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET ENTRAINERA
AINSI LE DEBUT DU COMBLEMENT DEFINITIF DE DANILO.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE PROBABLE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE
PLUIES. POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES, LA DEGRADATION DEVRAIT ARRIVER
AUJOURD'HUI ET SE POURSUIVRE SAMEDI, MAIS LA DISTANCE DE DANILO
DEVRAIT LAISSER LES PLUS FORTES PLUIES AU NORD. EN CE QUI CONCERNENT
LE SECTEUR MAURICE-REUNION, LE TIMING DE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE, VOIRE
SUR CES ILES, AVEC DEGRADATION NOTABLE DES CONDITIONS METEROLOGIQUES
DEVRAIT SE FAIRE POUR DIMANCHE/LUNDI. NOUS INVITONS LES POPULATIONS
DE CES ILES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DES PREVISIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PAR
LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080732
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 66.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 65

72H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/12 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 530 SW: 390 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/13 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 530 SW: 390 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0-

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE CLOUD MASS HAS BROKEN UP AND PRESENTS A
DISTURBED ZONE PATTERN WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED CENTER, WITH A FAIRLY
BROAD AND ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AS SHOWN IN THE AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE OF
0454Z. THE LAST ASCAT SWATHS OF THIS MORNING REMAIN PARTIAL AND GIVE
VALUES OF THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30KT. IN THESE CONDITIONS THE MEAN WIND
VALUES AT 30KT ARE ESSENTIALLY RELATED TO THE PERSISTENCE OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, DANILO IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM LOW
TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. THIS SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN BEYOND THAT, DANILO SHOULD SHIFT ITS
TRAJECTORY FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.
DUE TO THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGHS GEOPOTENTIAL. FROM THE
WEEKEND, DANILO SHOULD THUS BE ORIENTED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND
THIS INFLECTION OF TRAJECTORY SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS VERY CLOSE,
EVEN ON THE ISLANDS OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS. THIS PRESENT FORECAST
IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES, WHOSE MEMBERS PASSING
SOUTH ARE LESS AND LESS NUMEROUS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, DANILO IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO ITS
INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT, UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL
ENCOUNTER A MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR ALOFT, COUPLED WITH AN INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, IN FRONT OF A TROUGH ALOFT, AND FROM A BETTER WET FEED IN
THE LOW LAYER. THIS SCENARIO LEADING TO A TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM IS SUGGESTED BY SOME EPS MEMBERS AND SOME DETERMINISTS.
THE GFS MODEL IS CONSIDERED TOO REACTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE ANALYSIS
AND MAKES DANILO INTENSIFY TOO QUICKLY (WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM) BY MAKING IT DIVE FURTHER AND
FASTER TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, DANILO SHOULD
ALSO ENCOUNTER LESS OCEANIC POTENTIAL WITH LESS WARM WATER, WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ITS WEAKENING AND THUS LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF
THE DEFINITIVE FILLING OF DANILO.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES. A PROBABLE DEGRADATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAIN. FOR
RODRIGUES ISLAND, THE DEGRADATION SHOULD ARRIVE TODAY AND CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY, BUT THE DISTANCE OF DANILO SHOULD LEAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS
IN THE NORTH. AS REGARDS THE SECTOR MAURITIUS-MEETING, THE TIMING OF
PASSAGE NEAR, OR EVEN ON THESE ISLANDS, WITH NOTABLE DEGRADATION OF
THE METEROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DONE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE
INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080626
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 66.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 350 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/08 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
17.9 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210108011452
2021010800 08S DANILO 018 01 250 11 SATL 050
T000 171S 0679E 040 R034 000 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 173S 0656E 045 R034 020 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 176S 0637E 045 R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 181S 0619E 040 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 189S 0604E 040 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 207S 0574E 040 R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 221S 0537E 035 R034 020 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 235S 0502E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.3S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.6S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.1S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.9S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.7S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.1S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.5S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 67.3E.
08JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
629 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010418 157S 763E 50
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010600 166S 760E 45
0821010606 165S 753E 40
0821010612 164S 745E 35
0821010618 163S 736E 35
0821010700 163S 727E 35
0821010706 163S 714E 35
0821010712 164S 702E 35
0821010718 167S 690E 40
0821010800 171S 679E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.3S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.6S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.1S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.9S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.7S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.1S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.5S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 67.3E.
08JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
629 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A BROADLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 072035Z AMSR2
89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE
REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER WITH 5-7 KNOTS AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 38 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT (10-MINUTE AVERAGE). THIS,
ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA, SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS, WHICH IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5(35
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST
VALUES (27-28C). ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, TC 08S CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF
205NM AT TAU 72 INCREASING TO 405NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS OUTPERFORMED THE INDIVIDUAL
MODEL TRACKERS THUS FAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REMAINED
CHALLENGING AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE NEAR MADAGASCAR BY TAU 120 AS SST COOLS TO 26C. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE-FORCE
SUBTROPICAL LOW SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080023
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 67.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 55

24H: 09/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 20 NO: 65

36H: 09/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 30 NO: 65

48H: 10/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 30 NO: 65

60H: 10/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 390 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 30 NO: 65

72H: 11/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 230 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/01/2021 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 65

120H: 13/01/2021 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A EVOLUE EN
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTE BIEN
MARQUEE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE ESTIME. LES DERNIERES PASSES ASCAT QUI
DATENT DE PLUS DE 6H, DONNAIENT DES VALEURS DE 30KT AVEC TRES
LOCALEMENT 35KT SOUS CONVECTION. DANS CES CONDITIONS ET SUIVANT
L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE 2.5, LES VALEURS DE VENT A 00UTC RESTENT DE
L'ORDRE DE 30KT.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES 24-30
PROCHAINS HEURES, PRESENTANT UNE COMPOSANTE OUEST UN PEU PLUS
PERSISTANTE QUE LORS DE LA PRECEDENTE PREVISION DU FAIT DU DECALAGE
LEGEREMENT PLUS TARDIF DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST. A PARTIR
DU WEEK-END, DANILO DEVRAIT DONC S'ORIENTER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST
ET CETTE INFLECTION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER DANILO A PASSER
TRES PRES VOIRE SUR LES ILES REUNION ET MAURICE. CETTE PRESENTE
PREVISION EST UN CONSENSUS DES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, DONT LES
MEMBRES PASSANT AU SUD SONT DE MOINS EN MOINS NOMBREUX.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE : SOUS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT D'ALTITUDE PLUS PROPICE, DANILO NE PRESENTERA TOUTEFOIS
UNE REINTENSIFICATION QU'AVEC UN RETARD DE 30 A 36H, LE TEMPS QUE
L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES SE REMETTE EN PLACE. IL FAUT DONC
ATTENDRE CE WEEK-END ET LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
POLAIRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE POUR QUE CERTAINS MEMBRES DE
L'EPS ET CERTAINS DETERMINISTES SUGGERENT UNE LEGERE
REINTENSIFICATION, SCENARIO QUE SUIT LE CMRS. A CES ECHEANCES (PRES
DE 60H), L'INCERTITUDE SUR LES PREVISIONS D'INTENSITE RESTE
IMPORTANTE, FAIT D'AUTANT PLUS REMARQUABLE QUE LE METEORE TRANSITE A
PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITEES. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA DEGRADATION DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (AIR SEC, CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE ET
MANQUE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE) DEVRAIT ENTRAINER LE DEBUT DU
COMBLEMENT DEFINITIF DE DANILO.

CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE
PROBABLE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE
D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE PLUIES. POUR L'ILE RODRIGUES,
LA DEGRADATION DEVRAIT ARRIVER AUJOURD'HUI ET SE POURSUIVRE SAMEDI,
MAIS LA DISTANCE DE DANILO DEVRAIT LAISSER LES PLUS FORTES PLUIES AU
NORD. EN CE QUI CONCERNENT LE SECTEUR MAURICE - REUNION, LE TIMING DE
PASSAGE A PROXIMITE VOIRE SUR CES ILES AVEC DEGRADATION NOTABLE DES
CONDITIONS METEROLOGIQUES DEVRAIT SE FAIRE POUR DIMANCHE / LUNDI.
NOUS INVITONS LES POPULATIONS DE CES ILES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DES
PREVISIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 67.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 20 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 30 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 30 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 30 NW: 65

72H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/12 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 65

120H: 2021/01/13 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED WELL MARKED NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER. THE LAST ASCAT SWATHS, WHICH ARE MORE THAN 6 HOURS
OLD, GAVE VALUES OF 30KT WITH VERY LOCALLY 35KT UNDER CONVECTION.
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND FOLLOWING THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 2.5, THE
WIND VALUES AT 00UTC REMAIN AROUND 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE.
THIS SHIFT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS, PRESENTING A
WESTERN COMPONENT A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY LATER SHIFT OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HIGH TOWARDS THE
EAST. FROM THE WEEKEND, DANILO SHOULD THUS BE DIRECTED TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST AND THIS INFLECTION OF TRACK SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS
VERY CLOSE OR EVEN ON THE ISLANDS OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS. THIS
PRESENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES, WHOSE
MEMBERS PASSING TO THE SOUTH ARE LESS AND LESS NUMEROUS.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: UNDER A MORE FAVOURABLE
ALTITUDE ENVIRONMENT, DANILO WILL HOWEVER ONLY PRESENT A
REINTENSIFICATION WITH A DELAY OF 30 TO 36 HOURS, THE TIME FOR THE
LOW LAYER FEEDING TO RECOVER. IT IS THEREFORE NECESSARY TO WAIT UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE AT THE
FRONT OF A HIGH ALTITUDE TALWEG FOR SOME EPS MEMBERS AND SOME
DETERMINISTS TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION, A SCENARIO THAT
THE CMRS IS FOLLOWING. AT THESE TIMES (NEARLY 60H), THE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE INTENSITY PREDICTIONS REMAINS IMPORTANT, ALL THE MORE
REMARKABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS CLOSE TO INHABITED LANDS. FROM
MONDAY, THE DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (DRY AIR,
ALTITUDE SHEAR AND LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LEAD TO THE
BEGINNING OF THE FINAL FILLING OF DANILO.

THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE TO THE MASCARENES. A
PROBABLE DEGRADATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAIN. FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND,
THE DEGRADATION SHOULD ARRIVE TODAY AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, BUT THE
DISTANCE FROM DANILO SHOULD LEAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN THE NORTH. AS
REGARDS THE MAURITIUS - REUNION SECTOR, THE TIMING OF PASSAGE NEAR OR
EVEN ON THESE ISLANDS WITH NOTABLE DEGRADATION OF THE METEROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DONE FOR SUNDAY / MONDAY. WE INVITE THE
POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE WEATHER FORECAST
THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080009
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 67.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 210NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/08 AT 12 UTC:
17.1 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 5 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/09 AT 00 UTC:
17.4 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 10 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071831
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 69.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 55

24H: 08/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 55

36H: 09/01/2021 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 35 NO: 65

48H: 09/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 10/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 10/01/2021 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/01/2021 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 390 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SO: 175 NO: 85

120H: 12/01/2021 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SO: 390 NO: 175

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES DERNIA RES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A CONTINUA DE
PRA SENTER UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVA E ATTEIGNANT
DIFFICILEMENT LA MOITIA DE LA SPIRALE. DES BOUFFA ES CONVECTIVES
SONT NOTABLES A L'OUEST IMMA DITA DU CENTRE AU COURS DES DERNIA RES
HEURES. CETTE CONFIGURATION LAISSE UNE VALEUR DE 2.5 A L'ANALYSE
DVORAK AU SEUIL SUPA RIEUR DE DA PRESSION TROPICALE, PERMETTANT UNE
ESTIMATION DE VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 30KT.

EN TERMES DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO SE DA PLACE VERS
L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS
DES 24-30 PROCHAINS HEURES. A PARTIR DU WEEK-END, DANILO DEVRAIT
S'ORIENTER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DECALAGE DES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST. CETTE INFLECTION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT
AMENER DANILO A PASSER AU SUD DES ILES RA UNION ET MAURICE. CETTE
PRA SENTE PRA VISION EST UN CONSENSUS DES DIFFA RENTES GUIDANCES EN A
CARTANT CELLES QUI ONT UNE TRAJECTOIRE UN PEU PLUS NORD. LES PRA
VISIONS ENSEMBLISTES CONTINUENT EN EFFET DE PRA SENTER UN CERTAIN
NOMBRE DE MEMBRES PASSANT EN LIMITE NORD DES ILES DES MASCAREIGNES,
SCA NARIO QUI ENGENDRAIT DES CONDITIONS MA TA OROLOGIQUES PLUS DA
GRADA ES POUR LA RA UNION ET MAURICE.

LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS MONTRENT QUE LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT FAIBLIT.
CETTE AMA LIORATION DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES D'ALTITUDE NE
SERA TOUTEFOIS PROPICE A LA RA INTENSIFICATION DE DANILO QU'AVEC UN
RETARD DE 30 A 36H, LE TEMPS QUE L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES SE
REMETTE EN PLACE. IL FAUT ATTENDRE CE WEEK-END ET LA MISE EN PLACE
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
POUR QUE CERTAINS MEMBRES DE L'EPS ET CERTAINS DETERMINISTES SUGGA
RENT UNE LA GA RE RA INTENSIFICATION, SCA NARIO QUE SUIT LE CMRS. A
CES A CHA ANCES (PRA S DE 60H), L'INCERTITUDE SUR LES PRA VISIONS
D'INTENSITA RESTE IMPORTANTE, FAIT D'AUTANT PLUS REMARQUABLE QUE LE
MA TA ORE TRANSITE A PROXIMITA DES TERRES HABITA ES. A PARTIR DE
LUNDI, LA DA GRADATION DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (AIR SEC,
CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE ET MANQUE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE) DEVRAIT
ENTRAA NER LE DA BUT DU COMBLEMENT DA FINITIF DE DANILO.

CE WEEK-END, DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE
PROBABLE DA GRADATION DES CONDITIONS MA TA OROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE
D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE PLUIES. POUR L'A LE RODRIGUES,
LA DA GRADATION DEVRAIT ARRIVER VENDREDI / SAMEDI, MAIS LA DISTANCE
DE DANILO DEVRAIT LAISSER LES PLUS FORTES PLUIES LOIN AU NORD. EN CE
QUI CONCERNENT LE SECTEUR MAURICE - RA UNION, LE TIMING DEVRAIT SE
FAIRE POUR DIMANCHE / LUNDI. NOUS INVITONS LES POPULATIONS DE CES
ILES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DES PRA VISIONS MA TA OROLOGIQUES PAR LE
BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE MA TA OROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 69.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 390 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 85

120H: 2021/01/12 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SW: 390 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO SHOW A CURVED
BAND PATTERN THAT BARELY REACHED HALF OF THE SPIRAL. CONVECTIVE BURST
IS NOTICEABLE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS. THIS PATTERN LEAVES A VALUE OF 2.5 IN THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AT THE UPPER THRESHOLD OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION, ALLOWING AN
ESTIMATE OF WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE. THIS
SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. FROM THE
WEEKEND ONWARDS, DANILO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SHIFT OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE EAST. THIS INFLECTION
OF THE TRACK SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION
ISLAND AND MAURITIUS. THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT
GUIDANCES, EXCLUDING THOSE WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
INDEED, THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CERTAIN NUMBER
OF MEMBERS PASSING AT THE NORTHERN LIMIT OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, A
SCENARIO THAT WOULD LEAD TO WORSE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR REUNION
ISLAND AND MAURITIUS.

CIMSS ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING. HOWEVER, THIS
IMPROVEMENT IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT ALTITUDE WILL ONLY BE
CONDUCIVE TO THE REINTENSIFICATION OF DANILO WITH A DELAY OF 30 TO 36
HOURS, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FEEDING RECOVERS. IT IS NOT UNTIL THIS
WEEKEND AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE AT THE FRONT
OF A HIGH ALTITUDE TROUGH THAT SOME EPS MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION, A SCENARIO THAT THE RSMC
IS FOLLOWING. AT THESE DATES (CLOSE TO 60 HOURS), THE UNCERTAINTY ON
INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, A FACT THAT IS ALL THE MORE
REMARKABLE SINCE THE METEOR TRANSITS CLOSE TO INHABITED LANDS. FROM
MONDAY, THE DEGRADATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (DRY AIR,
ALTITUDE SHEAR AND LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LEAD TO THE
START OF THE FINAL FILLING OF DANILO.

THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE TO THE MASCARENES. A
PROBABLE DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST
TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINFALL.FOR THE ISLAND RODRIGUES,
THE DEGRADATION SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY / SATURDAY, BUT THE DISTANCE OF
DANILO SHOULD LEAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FAR TO THE NORTH. REGARDING
THE MAURITIUS - RA UNION SECTOR, THE TIMING SHOULD BE FOR SUNDAY /
MONDAY. WE INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071817 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 69.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP
TO 140NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/08 AT 06 UTC:
17.1 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 5 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/08 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 5 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071805
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 69.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP
TO 140NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/08 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/08 AT 12 UTC:
16.8 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 70.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 70.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.4S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.5S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.1S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.6S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.4S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.6S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.0S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 69.7E.
07JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071151Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTORS
OF THE LLCC. WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDS EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND IS HEDGED BELOW AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T2.8. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW
(5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (27-28C) SSTS BEING OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT. TC 08S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORHTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TC 08S TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH LOW VWS, SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO 40 KTS. NEAR TAU 36,
OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE MORE, BRIEFLY TAPPING INTO A POLEWARD
CHANNEL, WHICH, COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW VWS, WILL RESULT IN A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 48. INCREASING VWS,
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, AND DECREASED OUTFLOW WILL COMBINE BY TAU
72 TO BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 96 THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
VERY LOW OHC WATERS AND CONVERGENT OUTFLOW FORMS ALOFT, BEGINNING A
RAPID WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH 85NM SPREAD AT TAU 72, INCREASING TO 160NM AT TAU 120,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071212
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 69.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SO: 280 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 0

24H: 08/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 0

36H: 09/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 110

48H: 09/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 130

60H: 10/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 150

72H: 10/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 215

120H: 12/01/2021 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0;CI=2.5

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DANILO AU COURS
DES DERNIERES 12H, DES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SPORADIQUES CONTINUENT DE
SE DEVELOPPER PREFERENTIELLEMENT SUR L'OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. AVEC
LE CYCLE DIURNE, ELLES SE SONT ESSOUFLEES AU COURS DES TOUTES
DERNIERES HEURES. LE CENTRE DE DANILO EST PASSE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE
DE LA BOUEE OMM 5601576 QUI A RELEVE 995HPA A 1000Z (CORRECTION DE LA
MAREE BAROMETRIQUE COMPRISE).

EN TERMES DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO SE DEPLACE VERS
L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES
2 PROCHAINS JOURS. A PARTIR DU WEEK-END, DANILO DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DECALAGE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS
L'EST. LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN EST MODEREE SUR LA
PERIODE DE PREVISION.

LA CONTRAINTE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI A AFFAIBLIT DANILO EST EN
TRAIN DE GRADUELLEMENT DISPARAITRE SELON LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS. LA
MAJORITE DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES NE TRADUIT PAS CETTE AMELIORATION
DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PAR UNE REINTENSIFICATION AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 36H. IL FAUT ATTENDRE CE WEEK-END ET LA MISE EN PLACE
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
POUR QUE CERTAINS MEMBRES DE L'EPS ET CERTAINS DETERMINISTES (ARPEGE
00Z, AROME 00Z, IFS 00Z) SUGGERENT UNE LEGERE REINTENSIFICATION.
CEPENDANT, LE THALWEG POURRAIT EGALEMENT INTERAGIR AVEC L'ENVELOPPE
HUMIDE DE DANILO, CE QUI PERTURBERAIT LA CONVERGENCE DE
BASSES-COUCHES, RENDANT AINSI UNE REINTENSIFICATION PLUS DIFFICILE.
ENFIN, CERTAINS MODELES COMME LE GFS PROPOSENT TOUT SIMPLEMENT LA
MISE EN PLACE RAPIDE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR
NORD. AINSI, IL SUBSISTE UNE INCERTITUDE MODEREE CONCERNANT
L'INTENSITE DE DANILO AU VOISINAGE DES MASCAREIGNES (DEPRESSION OU
TEMPETE).
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(AIR SEC, CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE ET MANQUE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE)
DEVRAIT ENTRAINER LE COMBLEMENT DEFINITIF DE DANILO.

CE WEEK-END DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE
PROBABLE DA GRADATION DES CONDITIONS MA TA OROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE
D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE PLUIES : VENDREDI / SAMEDI
POUR L'A LE RODRIGUES ET A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE POUR LE SECTEUR MAURICE
- RA UNION. L'AMPLEUR DE CETTE DA GRADATION RESTE A PRA CISER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071212
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 69.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SW: 280 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 110

48H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 130

60H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 150

72H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 215

120H: 2021/01/12 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0;CI=2.5

LITTLE CHANGE ON DANILO'S CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE LAST 12 HRS, WITH
SPORADIC CONVECTIVE BURSTS STILL OCCURRING PREFERENTIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE, CONVECTION
SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE VERY LAST HOURS. DANILO'S
CENTER PASSED IN THE VICINITY OF WMO BUOY NB 5601576 THAT GAVE A
995HPA READING AT 1000Z (WITH THE BAROMETRIC TIDE ADJUSTMENT).

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. FROM THE WEEKEND, DANILO
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGHS TOWARDS THE EAST. THE EURO ENSEMBLE DISPERSION IS MODERATE OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT AFFECTED DANILO IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING
ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
DOES NOT TRANSLATES THIS IMPROVEMENT IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS A
RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. FROM SATURDAY, WITH A
POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, SOME
EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS (ARPEGE 00Z, AROME
00Z, IFS 00Z) STILL SUGGEST A MODERATE REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER,
THE UPPER TROUGH COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH DANILO'S WARM ENVELOPE,
THUS DISTURBING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE POLEWARD AND POTENTIALLY
COMPROMISE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. LASTLY, SOME MODELS LIKE
GFS ALSO FORECAST THE QUICK APPEARANCE OF A STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR.
CONSEQUENTLY, A MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING DANILO'S
INTENSITY DURING ITS PASSAGE NEAR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS (TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM).
FROM MONDAY, DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (DRY AIR, SHEAR
AND LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LEAD TO DANILO'S DEFINITIVE
WEAKENING.

THIS WEEKEND DANILO WILL THEREFORE TRACK NEAR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.
A PROBABLE DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM
EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINS : FRIDAY / SATURDAY FOR
RODRIGUES AND FROM SUNDAY FOR THE MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION SECTOR.
THE SEVERITY OF THIS DETERIORATION REMAINS TO BE SPECIFIED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071203
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 69.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/08 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/08 AT 12 UTC:
16.8 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070621
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 71.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SO: 280 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 75

24H: 08/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 95

36H: 08/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 110

48H: 09/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 130

60H: 09/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 150

72H: 10/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 165

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 585 SO: 335 NO: 185

120H: 12/01/2021 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DANILO A GLOBALEMENT PEU CHANGE AU COURS
DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. DES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION INTERMITTENTES SE
DECLENCHENT TOUJOURS DE FACON SPORADIQUES A PROXIMITE OUEST DU CENTRE
DE CIRCULATION. UNE BONNE PARTIE DE LA MOITIE NORD-EST DE LA
CIRCULATION RESTE EXPOSEE ET TEMOIGNE AINSI DE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LA PASSE ASCAT-A DE 0400Z COUVRE LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET MONTRE DES VENTS MAX DE L'ORDRE DU GRAND FRAIS
AU SEIN DU DEMI-CERCLE SUD, EN ACCORD AVEC L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU
CMRS.

EN TERMES DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO SE DEPLACE VERS
L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES
2 PROCHAINS JOURS. A PARTIR DU WEEK-END, DANILO DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DECALAGE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS
L'EST.

DANILO RESTE SOUMIS A UN CISAILLEMENT MODEREE DE SECTEUR
NORD-NORD-EST EN MOYENNE ALTITUDE QUI APPORTE DE L'AIR SEC AU-DESSUS
DE LA CIRCULATION DE SURFACE ET EMPECHE TOUJOURS LA RECONSTITUTION DE
SON COEUR CHAUD. CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT AVOIR TENDANCE A SE
RELACHER PROGRESSIVEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H, MAIS AUCUNE DES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES NE TRADUIT CETTE AMELIORATION DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PAR UNE REINTENSIFICATION. IL FAUT ATTENDRE CE
WEEK-END ET LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE A
L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE POUR QUE CERTAINS MEMBRES DE L'EPS ET
UNE MINORITE DE DETERMINISTES (ARPEGE, AROME) SUGGERENT UNE
REINTENSIFICATION. CEPENDANT, LE THALWEG DEVRAIT EGALEMENT INTERAGIR
AVEC LA PARTIE SUD DE L'ENVELOPPE HUMIDE DE BASSES-COUCHES DE DANILO.
CETTE INTERACTION BAROCLINE PARTICIPERAIT A L'APPARITION D'UN THALWEG
DE SURFACE AU SUD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION, CE QUI POURRAIT PERTURBER
LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES-COUCHES ET EMPECHER LE RENFORCEMENT DE
DANILO. C'EST CE SCENARIO QUI SEMBLE PLEBISCITE PAR LA MAJORITE DES
RUNS DETERMINISTES RECENTS. MALGRE TOUT, IL SUBSISTE UNE INCERTITUDE
MODEREE CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE DE DANILO AU VOISINAGE DES
MASCAREIGNES.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT
D'ALTITUDE ET LA PRESENCE D'AIR TRES SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
DANILO EST PREVU SE COMBLER EN S'EVACUANT VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

CE WEEK-END DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE
PROBABLE DA GRADATION DES CONDITIONS MA TA OROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE
D'EST EN OUEST, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE PLUIES: VENDREDI / SAMEDI POUR
L'A LE RODRIGUES ET A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE POUR LE SECTEUR MAURICE - RA
UNION. L'AMPLEUR DE CETTE DA GRADATION RESTE A PRA CISER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070621
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 71.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SW: 280 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 75

24H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 95

36H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 110

48H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 130

60H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 150

72H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 165

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 185

120H: 2021/01/12 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

DANILO'S CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE LAST 6 HRS. SOME
SPORADIC CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE OCCURRING PREFERENTIALLY IN THE
WESTERN VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A MAJOR PART OF THE
NORTH-EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS EXPOSED AND STILL
SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE AREA. THE 0400Z
ASCAT-A SWATH COVERS THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STILL SHOWS MAX
WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. FROM THE WEEKEND, DANILO
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGHS TOWARDS THE EAST.

DANILO STILL UNDERGOES A NORTH-NORTH-EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT
CARRY DRY AIR OVER ITS CENTER AND PREVENT THE RECONSTRUCTION OF ITS
WARM CORE. THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 48 HRS. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TRANSLATES THIS
IMPROVEMENT IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS A RE-INTENSIFICATION. FROM
SATURDAY, WITH A POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH, SOME EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A MINORITY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (ARPEGE, AROME) STILL SUGGEST A
REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF DANILO'S LOW-LEVEL WARM ENVELOPE.
THIS BAROCLINIC INTERACTION COULD CREATE A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH-WEST
OF THE CIRCULATION, DRASTICALLY DISTURBING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
POLEWARD AND THUS PREVENTING THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE CHOSEN BY THE MAJORITY OF THE MOST RECENT
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. A MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING
DANILO'S INTENSITY DURING ITS PASSAGE NEAR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.
FROM MONDAY, WITH A STRONG UPPER SHEAR AND VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR,
DANILO SHOULD FILL UP AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

THIS WEEKEND DANILO WILL THEREFORE TRACK NEAR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.
A PROBABLE DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM
EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINS : FRIDAY / SATURDAY FOR
RODRIGUES AND FROM SUNDAY FOR THE MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION SECTOR.
THE SEVERITY OF THIS DETERIORATION REMAINS TO BE SPECIFIED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070613
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 71.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/07 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/08 AT 06 UTC:
16.9 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210107012226
2021010700 08S DANILO 016 01 270 09 SATL 030
T000 163S 0727E 035 R034 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 085 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 165S 0704E 035 R034 000 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 167S 0682E 040 R034 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 169S 0660E 040 R034 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 173S 0641E 035 R034 020 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 187S 0607E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 204S 0577E 040 R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 223S 0544E 035 R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 72.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 72.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.5S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.7S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.9S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.3S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.7S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.4S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.3S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 72.1E.
07JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 906
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010418 157S 763E 50
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010600 166S 760E 45
0821010606 165S 753E 40
0821010612 164S 745E 35
0821010618 163S 736E 35
0821010700 163S 727E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 72.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 72.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.5S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.7S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.9S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.3S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.7S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.4S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.3S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 72.1E.
07JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
906 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062345Z 37GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOW SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH RAIN
BANDS FORMING WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED GMI IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTING ASCAT
DATA. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
FAIR WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28C. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS AT TAU 24 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEFORE WEAKENING TO 35 KNOTS AT
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR PEAKING AGAIN TO 40 KNOTS AT
TAU 96 DUE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
COOLER SSTS (26C). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72. BEYOND TAU
72, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH A 300 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070031
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 72.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SO: 370 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 0

24H: 08/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 0

36H: 08/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 0

48H: 09/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 0

60H: 09/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 55

72H: 10/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 12/01/2021 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES SUR LA PRESENTATION
NUAGEUSE DE DANILO QUI PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE
AVEC UN CENTRE QUI SE MAINTIENT EN BORDURE NORD-EST DE L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE. CELLE-CI RESTE TRES FLUCTUANTE AU GRE DES "BURST" DE
CONVECTION. EN ACCORD AVEC L'EVOLUTION DE PRESSION MESURA E PAR LA
BOUEE OMM-5601576 (QUI DEVRAIT SE TROUVER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU
CENTRE AUJOURD'HUI), ET DES PASS ASCAT DE CETTE APRES-MIDI,
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST DONC MAINTENUE A 30KT.

EN TERME DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES 2
PROCHAINS JOURS. A PARTIR DU WEEK-END, DANILO POURRAIT S'ORIENTER EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DECALAGE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS
L'EST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION RESTE TRA S INCERTAINE. LE
CISAILLEMENT QUI A IMPACTE DANILO DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES
DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS. DANS CE CONTEXTE ENCORE FAVORABLE AUX
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC RESTER
FAIBLE.

EN COURS DE WEEK-END, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POURRAIENT
REDEVENIR UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLES AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT. TOUTEFOIS, LA CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE
POURRAIT DEVENIR DE PLUS EN PLUS MAUVAISE: ELLE RESTE FAIBLE DU COTE
NORD AVEC UNE CONVERGENCE D'HUMIDITE CONTRARIEE PAR LA PRESENCE D'AIR
SEC EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. COTE SUD UNE INTERACTION BAROCLINE
ENTRE LA LIMITE SUD DE L'AIR CHAUD DE BASSES COUCHES ASSOCIE A
DANIELO ET UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PRESENT ENTRE LES MASCAREIGNES ET
MADAGASCAR EST SUGGERE PAR IFS ET GFS VERS 60E ENTRE 25S ET 30S.
CETTE INTERACTION BAROCLINE EST SUSCEPTIBLE DE SENSIBLEMENT
CONTRARIER L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES EGALEMENT COTE SUD. AINSI
CETTE POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION EST LOIN D'ETRE CERTAINE, CE QUE
REFLETE LES DONNEES ENSEMBLISTES EPS ET GEFS. LES GUIDANCES
DETERMINISTES LES PLUS FIABLES CONTINUENT DE DIVERGER A CE MOMENT LA:
SCENARIO DE RE-CREUSEMENT SUGGERE PAR IFS/UKMO ET DE COMBLEMENT PAR
GFS/HWRF.

EN FIN DE SEMAINE ET CE WEEK-END DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE PROBABLE DA GRADATION DES CONDITIONS MA TA
OROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST: VENDREDI / SAMEDI POUR L'A
LE RODRIGUES ET A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR OU DIMANCHE MATIN POUR LE
SECTEUR MAURICE - RA UNION. L'AMPLEUR DE CETTE DA GRADATION RESTE A
PRA CISER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 72.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SW: 370 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0

48H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2021/01/12 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5.

LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS ON THE DANILO'S CLOUD
PRESENTATION WHICH STILL PRESENTS A SHEARED PATTERN WITH A CENTER
REMAINING AT THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE
LATTER REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING PENDING ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
CONVECTIVE "BURST".
ACCORDING TO THE PRESSURE EVOLUTION MEASURED BY THE BUOY OMM-5601576
(WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER TODAY) AND
THE AFTERNOON ASCAT SWATHS, THE FINAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. FROM THE WEEKEND , DANILO COULD
MOVE MORE SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS
TOWARDS THE EAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE SHEAR
THAT IMPACTED DANILO SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN THIS
STILL FAVORABLE CONTEXT FOR DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVELS
DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD
BECOME WORSE AND WORSE: IT REMAINS WEAK ON THE NORTH SIDE WITH A
CONVERGENCE OF HUMIDITY COUNTERACTED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ON THE SOUTH SIDE, A BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LIMIT OF THE LOW LEVELS WARM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELO AND AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH PRESENT BETWEEN
THE MASCARENES AND MADAGASCAR IS SUGGESTED BY IFS AND GFS AROUND 60E
BETWEEN 25S AND 30S. THIS BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INTERFERE WITH THE SOUTH SIDE LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE.
SO THIS POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IS FAR FROM BEING CERTAIN, WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE DATA FROM EPS AND GEFS. THE MOST RELIABLE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDELINES CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AT THIS TIME: SCENARIO
OF RE-INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTED BY IFS/UKMO AND FILLING BY GFS/HWRF.

LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS NEAR THE
MASCARENES ISLANDS. A PROBABLE DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST: FRIDAY / SATURDAY FOR
RODRIGUES AND FROM SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
MAURITIUS LA REUNION SECTOR. THE EXTENT OF THIS DETERIORATION REMAINS
TO BE SPECIFIED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070020
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 72.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150
NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/07 AT 12 UTC:
16.4 S / 69.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/08 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/6/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 74.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SO: 370 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 0

24H: 07/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 0

36H: 08/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 0

48H: 08/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 0

60H: 09/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 0

72H: 09/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 11/01/2021 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES SUR LA PRESENTATION
NUAGEUSE DE DANILO QUI PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE
AVEC UN CENTRE EN BORDURE NORD-EST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. CELLE-CI
RESTE TRES FLUCTUANTE AU GRE DES "BURST" DE CONVECTION. EN ACCORD
AVEC LES PASS ASCAT DE CETTE APRES-MIDI, L'INTENSITE FINALE EST DONC
PASSE A 30KT.

EN TERME DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES 3
PROCHAINS JOURS. EN FIN DE PA RIODE, DANILO POURRAIT S'ORIENTER EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DECALAGE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS
L'EST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION RESTE TRA S INCERTAINE. LE
CISAILLEMENT QUI A IMPACTE DANILO DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES
DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS. DANS CE CONTEXTE ENCORE FAVORABLE AUX
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC RESTER
FAIBLE.

EN COURS DE WEEK-END, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POURRAIENT
REDEVENIR UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT. TOUTEFOIS, LA CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE
POURRAIT DEVENIR DE PLUS EN PLUS MAUVAISE: ELLE RESTE FAIBLE DU COTE
NORD AVEC UNE CONVERGENCE D'HUMIDITE CONTRARIEE PAR LA PRESENCE D'AIR
SEC EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. COTE SUD UNE INTERACTION BAROCLINE
ENTRE LA LIMITE SUD DE L'AIR CHAUD DE BASSES COUCHES ASSOCIE A
DANIELO ET UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PRESENT ENTRE LES MASCAREIGNES ET
MADAGASCAR EST SUGGERE PAR IFS ET GFS VERS 60E ENTRE 25S ET 30S.
CETTE INTERACTION BAROCLINE EST SUSCEPTIBLE DE SENSIBLEMENT
CONTRARIER L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES EGALEMENT COTE SUD. AINSI
CETTE POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION EST LOIN D'ETRE CERTAINE, CE QUE
REFLETE LES DONNEES ENSEMBLISTES EPS ET GEFS. LES GUIDANCES
DETERMINISTES LES PLUS FIABLES CONTINUENT DE DIVERGER A CE MOMENT LA:
SCENARIO DE RE-CREUSEMENT SUGGERE PAR IFS/UKMO ET DE COMBLEMENT PAR
GFS/HWRF.

EN FIN DE SEMAINE ET CE WEEK-END DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE PROBABLE DA GRADATION DES CONDITIONS MA TA
OROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST: VENDREDI / SAMEDI POUR L'A
LE RODRIGUES ET A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR OU DIMANCHE MATIN POUR LE
SECTEUR MAURICE - RA UNION. L'AMPLEUR DE CETTE DA GRADATION RESTE A
PRA CISER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 74.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SW: 370 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 0

48H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

60H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5.

LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS ON THE DANILO'S CLOUD
PRESENTATION WHICH STILL PRESENTS A SHEARED PATTERN WITH A CENTER AT
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE LATTER REMAINS
VERY FLUCTUATING PENDING ON THE OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTIVE "BURST".
ACCORDING TO THE AFTERNOON ASCAT SWATHS, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS DOWN
AT 30 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD,
DANILO COULD MOVE MORE SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS TOWARDS THE EAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE SHEAR
THAT IMPACTED DANILO SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN THIS
STILL FAVORABLE CONTEXT FOR DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVELS
DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD
BECOME WORSE AND WORSE: IT REMAINS WEAK ON THE NORTH SIDE WITH A
CONVERGENCE OF HUMIDITY COUNTERACTED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ON THE SOUTH SIDE, A BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LIMIT OF THE LOW LEVELS WARM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELO AND AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH PRESENT BETWEEN
THE MASCARENES AND MADAGASCAR IS SUGGESTED BY IFS AND GFS AROUND 60E
BETWEEN 25S AND 30S. THIS BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INTERFERE WITH THE SOUTH SIDE LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE.
SO THIS POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IS FAR FROM BEING CERTAIN, WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE DATA FROM EPS AND GEFS. THE MOST RELIABLE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDELINES CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AT THIS TIME: SCENARIO
OF RE-INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTED BY IFS/UKMO AND FILLING BY GFS/HWRF.

LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS NEAR THE
MASCARENES ISLANDS. A PROBABLE DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST: FRIDAY / SATURDAY FOR
RODRIGUES AND FROM SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
MAURITIUS LA REUNION SECTOR. THE EXTENT OF THIS DETERIORATION REMAINS
TO BE SPECIFIED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061818
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 74.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/07 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/07 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210106124945
2021010612 08S DANILO 015 01 270 08 SATL 025
T000 165S 0745E 035 R034 020 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 167S 0725E 040 R034 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 169S 0700E 040 R034 010 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 170S 0676E 040 R034 010 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 172S 0654E 040 R034 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 182S 0615E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 197S 0583E 035 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 215S 0555E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 74.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 74.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.7S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.0S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.2S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.2S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.7S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.5S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 74.0E.
06JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.
//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010418 157S 763E 50
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010600 166S 760E 45
0821010606 165S 753E 40
0821010612 165S 745E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 74.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 74.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.7S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.0S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.2S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.2S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.7S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.5S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 74.0E.
06JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED AS RAIN
BANDS UNRAVELED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION WEAKENED, DEFORMED AND
SHEARED WESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS LINED UP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AHEAD OF A FAINT
BUT DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 060900Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 060449Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING MAX 35-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY TREND OF T2.5/3.0
(35/45KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK SST AT 28C. TC 08S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH AND WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD UP TO TAU 48
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 40KTS BY TAU 12 - SUSTAINED UP TO TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW INDUCED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120 AFTER IT TRACKS OVER MAURITIUS AND
LA REUNION. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL
AND EQUAL SPREADING TO 290NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061245
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 74.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 595 SO: 445 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 0

24H: 07/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 55

36H: 08/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 0

48H: 08/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 0

60H: 09/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 0

72H: 09/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SO: 95 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SO: 30 NO: 65

120H: 11/01/2021 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES SUR LA PRESENTATION
NUAGEUSE DE DANILO QUI PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE
AVEC UN CENTRE EN BORDURE NORD-EST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. CELLE-CI
RESTE TRES FLUCTUANTE AU GRE DES "BURST" DE CONVECTION. LES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES PLAIDENT POUR UNE INTENSITE A
40 KT MAIS VU LA GLOBALE STABILITE DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
DEPUIS LES PASS ASCAT DE CE MATIN, L'INTENSITE FINALE EST LAISSEE
INCHANGEE A 35 KT.


EN TERME DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES 3
PROCHAINS JOURS. EN FIN DE PA RIODE, DANILO POURRAIT S'ORIENTER EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DECALAGE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS
L'EST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION RESTE TRA S INCERTAINE. LE
CISAILLEMENT QUI A IMPACTE DANILO DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES
DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS. DANS CE CONTEXTE ENCORE FAVORABLE AUX
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC RESTER
FAIBLE. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
POURRAIENT REDEVENIR UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT. TOUTEFOIS, LA CONVERGENCE DE
SURFACE POURRAIT DEVENIR DE PLUS EN PLUS MAUVAISE: ELLE RESTE FAIBLE
DU COTE NORD AVEC UNE CONVERGENCE D'HUMIDITE CONTRARIEE PAR LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. COTE SUD UNE INTERACTION
BAROCLINE ENTRE LA LIMITE SUD DE L'AIR CHAUD DE BASSES COUCHES
ASSOCIE A DANIELO ET UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PRESENT ENTRE LES
MASCAREIGNES ET MADAGASCAR EST SUGGERE PAR IFS ET GFS VERS 60E ENTRE
25S ET 30S. CETTE INTERACTION BAROCLINE EST SUSCEPTIBLE DE
SENSIBLEMENT CONTRARIER L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES EGALEMENT
COTE SUD. AINSI CETTE POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION EST LOIN D'ETRE
CERTAINE, CE QUE REFLETE LES DONNEES ENSEMBLISTES EPS ET GEFS. LES
GUIDANCES DETERMINISTES LES PLUS FIABLES CONTINUENT DE DIVERGER A CE
MOMENT LA: SCENARIO DE RE-CREUSEMENT SUGGERE PAR IFS/UKMO ET DE
COMBLEMENT PAR GFS/HWRF.

EN FIN DE SEMAINE ET CE WEEK-END DANILO VA DONC PASSER A PROXIMITE
DES MASCAREIGNES. UNE PROBABLE DA GRADATION DES CONDITIONS MA TA
OROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE D'EST EN OUEST: VENDREDI / SAMEDI POUR L'A
LE RODRIGUES ET A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR OU DIMANCHE MATIN POUR LE
SECTEUR MAURICE - RA UNION. L'AMPLEUR DE CETTE DA GRADATION RESTE A
PRA CISER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 74.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 595 SW: 445 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 0

48H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 0

60H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 0

72H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SW: 30 NW: 65

120H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS ON THE DANILO'S CLOUD
PRESENTATION WHICH STILL PRESENTS A SHEARED PATTERN WITH A CENTER AT
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE LATTER REMAINS
VERY FLUCTUATING PENDING ON THE OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTIVE "BURST".
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES PLEAD FOR AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT
BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL STABILITY OF THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION SINCE THE
MORNING ASCAT SWATHS, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS LEFT UNCHANGED AT 35 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD,
DANILO COULD MOVE MORE SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS TOWARDS THE EAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE SHEAR
THAT IMPACTED DANILO SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN THIS
STILL FAVORABLE CONTEXT FOR DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN LOW. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION
WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD BECOME WORSE AND WORSE: IT REMAINS WEAK ON
THE NORTH SIDE WITH A CONVERGENCE OF HUMIDITY COUNTERACTED BY THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ON THE SOUTH
SIDE, A BAROCLINIC INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LIMIT OF THE LOW
LEVELS WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELO AND AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH
PRESENT BETWEEN THE MASCARENES AND MADAGASCAR IS SUGGESTED BY IFS AND
GFS AROUND 60E BETWEEN 25S AND 30S. THIS BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS
LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INTERFERE WITH THE SOUTH SIDE LOW LEVELS
CONVERGENCE. SO THIS POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IS FAR FROM BEING
CERTAIN, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE DATA FROM EPS AND GEFS. THE MOST
RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDELINES CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AT THIS TIME:
SCENARIO OF RE-INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTED BY IFS/UKMO AND FILLING BY
GFS/HWRF.

LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS NEAR THE
MASCARENES ISLANDS. A PROBABLE DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST: FRIDAY / SATURDAY FOR
RODRIGUES AND FROM SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
MAURITIUS LA REUNION SECTOR. THE EXTENT OF THIS DETERIORATION REMAINS
TO BE SPECIFIED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061215
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 74.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/07 AT 00 UTC:
16.8 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/07 AT 12 UTC:
17.1 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060640
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 75.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 720 SO: 465 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 75 NO: 0

24H: 07/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 55

36H: 07/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 55

48H: 08/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 55

60H: 08/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 445 NO: 55

72H: 09/01/2021 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 445 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 280 SO: 470 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SO: 30 NO: 65

120H: 11/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SO: 45 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DANILO PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLE AVEC UN CENTRE EN
BORDURE NORD-EST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. CELLE-CI S'EST RENFORCEE
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H MAIS PRESENTE BEAUCOUP DE FLUCTUATIONS.
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE SE BASE SUR LES DIFFERENTES PASS ASCAT DE LA
MATINEE QUI MONTRENT DES VENTS MAX A 35 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

EN TERME DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES 3
PROCHAINS JOURS. EN FIN DE PA RIODE, DANILO POURRAIT S'ORIENTER EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DECALAGE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS
L'EST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION RESTE TRA S INCERTAINE. LE
CISAILLEMENT QUI A IMPACTE DANILO DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES
DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS. DANS CE CONTEXTE ENCORE FAVORABLE AUX
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER FAIBLE
DANS LES 2 A 3 PROCHAINS JOURS. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONEMENTALES POURRAIENT REDEVENIR UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLE AVEC UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT. TOUTEFOIS, LA
CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE DEVRAIT ETRE FAIBLE DU COTE NORD. AINSI CETTE
POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION EST LOIN D'ETRE CERTAINE. LES GUIDANCES
NUMERIQUES LES PLUS FIABLES DIVERGENT A CE MOMENT LA: SCENARIO DE
RE-CREUSEMENT SUGGERE PAR IFS ET DE COMBLEMENT PAR GFS / HWRF.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 75.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 720 SW: 465 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 445 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 445 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 280 SW: 470 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SW: 30 NW: 65

120H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SW: 45 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DANILO STILL PRESENTS A SHEAR PATTERN WITH A CENTER LOCATED AT THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS DEEP CONVECTION
HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT SHOWS A LOT OF
FLUCTUATIONS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE DIFFERENT ASCAT
SWATHS OF THE MORNING WHICH SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS AT 35 KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD,
DANILO COULD MOVE MORE SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS TOWARDS THE EAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE SHEAR
THAT IMPACTED DANILO SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN THIS
STILL FAVORABLE CONTEXT FOR DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR.
HOWEVER, SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE WEAK ON THE NORTH SIDE. SO
THIS POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. THE MOST RELIABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCES DIVERGE AT THIS TIME: RE-INTENSIFICATION
SUGGESTED BY IFS AND FILLING BY GFS / HWRF.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060621
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 75.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 390 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/06 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/07 AT 06 UTC:
17.1 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210106021341
2021010600 08S DANILO 014 01 240 06 SATL 060
T000 169S 0760E 050 R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 170S 0744E 045 R034 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 170S 0698E 040 R034 010 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 171S 0676E 040 R034 010 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 172S 0651E 040 R034 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 173S 0632E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 183S 0598E 035 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 201S 0569E 035 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.0S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.0S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.1S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.2S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.3S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.1S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 75.6E.
06JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 623
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.
//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010418 157S 763E 50
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010512 165S 766E 70
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010518 166S 765E 60
0821010600 169S 760E 50
0821010600 169S 760E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.0S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.0S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.1S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.2S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.3S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.1S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 75.6E.
06JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
623 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
RAPIDLY WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052314Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PGTW SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) OF T3.0/45 KNOTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT
27-28C. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD UP
THROUGH TAU 72 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE, BUT WITH RESTRICTED OUTFLOW AND COOLER SSTS. TC 08S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE HWRF SUGGESTS POSSIBLE RE-
INTENSIFICATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 96, BUT THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060035
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 76.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 555 SO: 520 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 230 SO: 350 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65

24H: 07/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SO: 215 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SO: 35 NO: 65

36H: 07/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 140 SO: 240 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 65

48H: 08/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 280 NO: 55

60H: 08/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 55

72H: 09/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SO: 470 NO: 55

120H: 11/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 155 SO: 45 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0- CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
DANILO A PEU CHANGE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE TRES FAIBLE
SOUS LA FORME DE QUELQUES BOUFFEES DE CONVECTION LOCALEMENT INTENSES.
CELA SUGGERE QUE L'AIR SEC ADVECTE PAR LE CISAILLEMENT EST TOUJOURS
PRESENT AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DE DANILO. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ABAISSEE
A 40KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DVORAK ET LE SATCON.
CEPENDANT CETTE ESTIMATION POURRAIT ETRE ENCORE SURESTIMEE EN
L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES FIABLES. AU VU DES RECENTES PASSES SSMIS (2327Z)
DISPONIBLES APRES 00Z, IL SEMBLERAIT QUE LA POSITION REELLE SOIT PLUS
AU NORD QU'INITIALEMENT ANALYSEE DANS LA LIMITE DES 25MN. LA POSITION
DE 00Z DANS LA BESTRACK SERA CORRIGEE A 06Z.

EN TERME DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO A CONTINUE DE SE
DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE
DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS. EN
FIN DE PA RIODE, DANILO POURRAIT S'ORIENTER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST
AVEC LE DECALAGE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION RESTE TRA S INCERTAINE. LE
CISAILLEMENT QUI A IMPACTE DANILO DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AUJOURD'HUI.
UNE AUTRE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST POURRAIT EGALEMENT AFFECTER LE
SYSTEME VENDREDI. DANS CE CONTEXTE ENCORE FAVORABLE AUX INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER FAIBLE DANS LES 3
PROCHAINS JOURS. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONEMENTALES
POURRAIENT REDEVENIR UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT. TOUTEFOIS, LA CONVERGENCE DE
SURFACE DEVRAIT ETRE FAIBLE DU COTE NORD. AINSI CETTE POSSIBLE
INTENSIFICATION EST LOIN D'ETRE CERTAINE. COMME LE SUGGERE CERTAINS
RUNS DETERMINISTES, L'INTENSITE POURRAIT ETRE PLUS MODESTE QUE LA
PRESENTE PREVISION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060035
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 76.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 555 SW: 520 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 230 SW: 350 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 215 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 140 SW: 240 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 280 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 470 NW: 55

120H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 155 SW: 45 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0- CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, DANILO CLOUD PATTERN BARELY EVOLVED.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED GLOBALLY WEAK EXCEPT TEMPORARILY WITHIN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGEST THAT THE DRY AIR
MASS BROUGHT BY THE SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT OVER THE CENTER. INTENSITY
IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO 40KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS AND SATCON. HOWEVER IT STILL MAY BE EXCESSIVE, GIVEN THE
LACK OF RELIABLE DATA. GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVED SSMIS (2327Z) AVAILABLE
AFTER 00Z, IT SEEMS THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INITIAL
POSITION, WITHIN THE 25NM RANGE. THE 00Z BESTRACK POSITION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE MODIFIED AT 06Z.

IN TERMS OF TRACK PREDICTION, DANILO KEPT ON MOVING WESTWARD DRIVEN
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
3 DAYS. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, DANILO COULD MOVE SOUTH-WESTARD
WITH THE SHIFT OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL HIGHS TOWARDS THE EAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE SHEAR
THAT HAS INFLUENCED DANILO SHOULD PERSIST TODAY. AN OTHER
NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT COULD ALSO IMPACT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. IN
THIS POORLY CONDUCIVE CONTEXT, FAVORABLE FOR DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER,
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE WEAK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. SO THIS
POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. AS SUGGESTED BY SOME
DETERMINISTIC RUNS, THE INTENSITY COULD BE WEAKER THAN THE PRESENT
FORECAST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060021
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 76.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/06 AT 12 UTC:
16.8 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/07 AT 00 UTC:
17.0 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051900
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 76.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 555 SO: 520 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SO: 205 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SO: 35 NO: 65

24H: 06/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 240 SO: 305 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 110 NO: 65

36H: 07/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 35 NO: 65

48H: 07/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 55

60H: 08/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 55

72H: 08/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 30 NO: 65

120H: 10/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 30 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5- CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD, LA CIRCULATION D'ALTITUDE ET CELLE DE SURFACE ONT ETE
TOTALEMENT DECOUPLEES. EN CONSEQUENCE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
EFFONDREE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1340Z ET AMSU-B DE 1646Z
LE CONFIRMENT. L'INTENSITE A ETE FIXEE A 45KT EN L'ABSENCE DE PASSES
SCATTEROMETRIQUES SUR LE CENTRE. LES DERNIERES DONNEES SEMBLENT PAR
AILLEURS INDIQUER UN DEBUT DE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST.

EN TERME DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, SI LA TRAJECTOIRE RECENTE SE
CONFIRME, LE DEPLACEMENT DE DANILO COMMENCE A ETRE PILOTE PAR LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS
DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS. EN FIN DE PA RIODE, DANILO POURRAIT S'ORIENTER
EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DECALAGE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
VERS L'EST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION RESTE TRA S INCERTAINE. LE
CISAILLEMENT QUI A IMPACTE DANILO DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR DEMAIN. UNE
AUTRE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST POURRAIT EGALEMENT AFFECTER LE SYSTEME
VENDREDI. DANS CE CONTEXTE PEU FAVORABLE ET FAVORABLE AUX INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER FAIBLE DANS LES 3
PROCHAINS JOURS. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONEMENTALES
POURRAIENT REDEVENIR UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT. TOUTEFOIS, LA CONVERGENCE DE
SURFACE DEVRAIT ETRE FAIBLE DU COTE NORD. AINSI CETTE POSSIBLE
INTENSIFICATION EST LOIN D'ETRE CERTAINE. COMME LE SUGGERE CERTAINS
RUNS DETERMINISTES, L'INTENSITE POURRAIT ETRE PLUS MODESTE QUE LA
PRESENTE PREVISION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051900
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 76.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 555 SW: 520 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 240 SW: 305 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 35 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 30 NW: 65

120H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 30 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR,
THE UPPER AND LOWER CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN TOTALLY SEPARATED. AS A
RESULT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COLLAPSED. THE 1340Z SSMIS AND 1646Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS. THE INTENSITY WAS FIXED AT 45KT
IN THE ABSENCE OF SCATTEROMETRIC DATA ON THE CENTRE. THE LATEST DATA
ALSO SEEMS TO INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF A WESTWARD SHIFT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK PREDICTION, IF THE RECENT TRACK IS CONFIRMED,
DANILO'S MOVEMENT IS STARTING TO BE DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, DANILO COULD MOVE SOUTH-WESTARD WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
GEOPOTENTIAL HIGHS TOWARDS THE EAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE SHEAR
THAT HAS INFLUENCED DANILO SHOULD PERSIST TOMORROW. ANOTHER
NORTH-WESTERN CONSTRAINT COULD ALSO IMPACT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. IN
THIS UNFAVOURABLE CONTEXT, CONDUCIVE TO DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER,
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE WEAK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. SO THIS
POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. AS SUGGESTED BY SOME
DETERMINISTIC RUNS, THE INTENSITY COULD BE MORE MODEST THAN THE
PRESENT FORECAST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051828
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 05/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 76.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/06 AT 06 UTC:
16.6 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/06 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.2S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.3S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.3S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.2S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.3S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.7S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.5S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 75.8E.
05JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 611
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED COMPACT DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SHORT RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE
CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 051044Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED WRAP. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK
SST AT 28C. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH HAS ASSUMED
STEERING FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL DRIVE
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD UP TO TAU 72 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU
24; AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW INDUCED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT TRACKS OVER MAURITIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL AND EQUAL SPREADING TO 220NM AT
TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210105122905
2021010512 08S DANILO 013 01 240 06 SATL 020
T000 167S 0760E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 172S 0751E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 173S 0735E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 173S 0713E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 172S 0688E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 173S 0643E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 187S 0604E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 205S 0574E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.2S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.3S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.3S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.2S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.3S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.7S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.5S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 75.8E.
05JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 611
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.
//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010418 157S 763E 50
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010500 161S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010506 164S 766E 65
0821010512 167S 760E 70
0821010512 167S 760E 70
0821010512 167S 760E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051234
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/6/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 77.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SO: 510 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 20 SO: 55 NO: 65

24H: 06/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 280 SO: 335 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 65

36H: 07/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 350 SO: 345 NO: 120

48H: 07/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 55

60H: 08/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 205 SO: 285 NO: 55

72H: 08/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 470 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 470 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 30 NO: 65

120H: 10/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 470 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 30 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

INITIALEMENT PRA SENT SOUS LA FORME D'UN CDO, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME
APPARAIT DESORMAIS SOUS LE FORME D'UNE STRUCTURE PLUS CISAILLA E,
AVEC UN CENTRE DA CALA EN BORDURE EST DE LA CONVECTION. CETTE
ANALYSE EST CORROBORA E A LA FOIS GRACE AUX IMAGES SATELLITAIRES
(AMSR2 DE 0819Z) AINSI QU'AUX DONNA ES DU CIMMS. L'ACTIVITA
CONVECTIVE RA SISTE A CE CISAILLEMENT COMME LE MONTRE LES IMAGES
SATELLITAIRES DANS LE CANAL HRV, OA ON VOIT DE NOMBREUSES BOUFFA ES
CONVECTIVES. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIME DES VENTS TOUJOURS A
55 KT. LES DONNA ES OBJECTIVES QUANT A ELLES SONT PLUTOT DE L'ORDRE
DE 50 KT EN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEPUIS CES DERNIA RES HEURES. LE SYSTA ME
RESTE POUR LE MOMENT AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPA TE TROPICALE. CONCERNANT
SA TRAJECTOIRE, SUR LES SIX DERNIA RES HEURES, DANILO A ENTREPRIS
TEMPORAIREMENT UN PETIT DA PLACEMENT VERS L'EST.

EN TERMES DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, DANILO RESTE SOUMIS A DES
FLUX CONTRAIRES, EN BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE JUSQU'A MERCREDI,
LUI DA FINISSANT PROCHAINEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST. PUIS
SOUS L'EFFET DE L'A VACUATION VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE A QUATORIALE,
LE DA PLACEMENT DE DANILO SERA DAVANTAGE PILOTA PAR LE FLUX D'EST
ENGENDRA PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. TOUTEFOIS, EN FIN DE PA RIODE,
DANILO POURRAIT TOURNER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. TOUTEFOIS, LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES EST PARTICULIEREMENT IMPORTANTE A CES ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION RESTE TRA S INCERTAINE ET LA PRA
VISION D'INTENSITA ACTUELLE A A TA REVUE A LA BAISSE PAR RAPPORT A
CE MATIN. A CE STADE DANILO VA SUBIR UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST A
NORD-EST MODA RA A FORT, COUPLA A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC, CE QUI
VA GRANDEMENT ATTA NUER SON INTENSITA AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36
HEURES, POUR ARRIVER AU STADE DE DA PRESSION TROPICALE. EN FIN DE PA
RIODE, LES CONTRAINTES D'ALTITUDE POURRAIENT SE RELACHER ET UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE SE METTRE EN PLACE CA TA POLAIRE, CE QUI POURRAIT
CONDUIRE A UNE LA GA RE REINTENSIFICATION DE DANILO CE WEEK-END,
SUIVANT LA PRA VISION ACTUELLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051234
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 77.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SW: 510 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 20 SW: 55 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 350 SW: 345 NW: 120

48H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 205 SW: 285 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 470 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 470 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 30 NW: 65

120H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 470 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 30 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

PREVIOUSLY PRESENT IN A CDO PATTERN, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM NOW
APPEARS AS A MORE SHEARED STRUCTURE, WITH A CENTER SHIFTED AT THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS ANALYSIS IS CONFIRMED BOTH BY
SATELLITE IMAGES (AMSR2 OF 0819Z) AND BY CIMMS DATA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RESISTS TO THIS SHEAR AS SHOWN BY THE
SATELLITE IMAGES IN THE HRV CHANNEL, WHERE WE SEE MANY CONVECTIVE
BURSTS. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES WINDS STILL AT 55 KT.
THE OBJECTIVE ASSETS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 50 KT IN WEAKENING SINCE
THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM REMAINS FOR THE MOMENT AT THE STAGE OF A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. CONCERNING ITS TRACK, OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS,
DANILO HAS TEMPORARILY STARTED A SMALL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO REMAINS SUBJECT TO CONTRARY FLOWS
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SOON SETTING A
WESTWARD TRACK. THEN, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE EASTWARD EVACUATION OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, DANILO'S MOVE WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY THE
EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, DANILO COULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHWEST FACE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS
PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT AT THESE TIMES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. AT THIS STAGE DANILO WILL UNDERGO MODERATE TO STRONG
EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT, COUPLED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
ALOFT, WHICH WILL GREATLY ATTENUATE ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS, TO REACH THE STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINTS COULD RELAX AND
A GOOD DIVERGENCE COULD DEVELOP ON THE POLAR SIDE, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO A SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION OF DANILO THIS WEEKEND, ACCORDING TO
THE PRESENT FORECAST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051207
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 05/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 77.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 275 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/06 AT 00 UTC:
17.1 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 10 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/06 AT 12 UTC:
17.3 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050632
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/6/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 76.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SO: 510 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 06/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SO: 220 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 06/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 380 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 95

48H: 07/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SO: 325 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 130 NO: 65

60H: 07/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SO: 240 NO: 55

72H: 08/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 140 SO: 175 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 470 SO: 470 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 110

120H: 10/01/2021 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SO: 470 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES DERNIA RES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTA ME N'A PAS A
VOLUA . IL S'AGIT DONC TOUJOURS D'UN CDO. TOUTEFOIS, ON REMARQUE SUR
LES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES CANAL VISIBLE DE CE MATIN, QUE LA CONVECTION
S'EST RECENTRA E AUTOUR DU CENTRE DU SYSTA ME. LES DERNIA RES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS F17 DE 0107Z INDIQUENT UN DA CALAGE VERS L'OUEST DU
CENTRE DE CIRCULATION DE BASSE COUCHE. CETTE OBSERVATION EST
CORROBORA E PAR L'A TUDE DU CISAILLEMENT EN ALTITUDE; EN HAUTE
TROPOSPHA RE, LE CISAILLEMENT EST MODA RA A FORT DE SECTEUR EST, EN
BORDURE DE LA DORSALE. EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE, LE CISAILLEMENT EST
PLUTA T MODA RA DE SECTEUR NORD-EST. EN TERMES D'ANALYSE D'INTENSITA
, L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK INDIQUE UNE ESTIMATION DE 55 KT. LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES (ADT ET SATCON) TABLENT POUR UNE ESTIMATION DE 50
KT.LE SYSTA ME RESTE ALORS AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPA TE TROPICALE.

EN TERMES DE PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, IL Y A PEU DE CHANGEMENT PAR
RAPPORT A LA PRA VISION PRA CA DENTE. EN EFFET, LE SYSTA ME EST
SOUMIS A DES FLUX CONTRAIRES, EN BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE
JUSQU'A MERCREDI. PUIS SOUS L'EFFET DE L'A VACUATION VERS L'EST DE
LA DORSALE A QUATORIALE, LE DA PLACEMENT DU SYSTA ME SERA DAVANTAGE
PILOTA PAR LE FLUX D'EST ENGENDRA PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.
TOUTEFOIS, EN FIN DE PA RIODE, DANILO POURRAIT TOURNER EN DIRECTION
DU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE MAIS
ACTUELLEMENT LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST PARTICULIEREMENT
IMPORTANTE A CES ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION RESTE TRA S INCERTAINE. LES DONNA
ES ANALYSA ES DU CIMMS MONTRENT UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-EST
EN MOYENNE PUIS DE SECTEUR EST EN HAUTE TROPOSPHERE. IL DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT ADVECTER DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR DU PHENOMENE.
LA MAJORITE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES SUGGA RENT AINSI UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. AINSI, DANILO DEVRAIT DERIVER SUR LA FACE NORD DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES A UNE INTENSITE MODEREE A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI. SAMEDI, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIT SE RELACHER ET
UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE SE METTRE EN PLACE, CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE
UNE REINTENSIFICATION DU METEORE CE WEEK-END PROCHAIN SUIVANT LA PRA
VISION ACTUELLE. CEPENDANT, D'AUTRES MODELES PREVOIENT LE MAINTIEN DE
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEFAVORABLES AU DEVELOPPEMENT DE DANILO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 76.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SW: 510 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95

48H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SW: 325 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 240 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 470 SW: 470 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 110

120H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SW: 470 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED.
IT IS THEREFORE STILL A CDO PATTERN.
HOWEVER, WE NOTICE ON THIS MORNING'S VISIBLE CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGES
THAT CONVECTION HAS FLARED OUT AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.
THE LATEST SSMIS F17 MICROWAVE IMAGES OF 0107Z INDICATE A WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS OBSERVATION IS
CONFIRMED BY THE ANALYSIS OF SHEAR ALOFT; IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE,
THE SHEAR IS MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE EASTERN SECTOR, AT THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, THE SHEAR IS MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ESTIMATE OF 55 KT. THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (ADT AND
SATCON) ESTIMATE A VALUE OF 50 KT, LEAVING THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. INDEED, THE SYSTEM IS SUBJECT TO CONTRARY FLOWS IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THEN, UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE EASTWARD EVACUATION OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY THE EASTWARD FLOW
GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, DANILO COULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHWEST FACE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT CURRENTLY THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS
PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT AT THESE TIMES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE CIMMS
DATA ANALYSIS SHOW A SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST SECTOR ON AVERAGE AND
THEN FROM THE EAST SECTOR IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE. IT SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY ADVECT DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING. THUS, DANILO
SHOULD TRACK ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AT A
MODERATE INTENSITY FROM WEDNESDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE ALTITUDE
CONSTRAINT COULD RELAX AND A GOOD DIVERGENCE COULD BE IN PLACE, WHICH
COULD ALLOW A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE METEOR THIS COMING WEEKEND
ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER, OTHER MODELS PREDICT THE
MAINTENANCE OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANILO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050605
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 05/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 76.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 275 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/05 AT 18 UTC:
16.9 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/06 AT 06 UTC:
17.2 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210105014237
2021010500 08S DANILO 012 01 165 04 SATL 060
T000 161S 0764E 065 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 168S 0765E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 172S 0755E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 172S 0743E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 170S 0724E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 168S 0683E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 171S 0653E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 181S 0619E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 76.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 76.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.8S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.2S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.2S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.0S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.8S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.1S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.1S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 76.4E.
05JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010418 157S 763E 50
0821010500 161S 764E 65
0821010500 161S 764E 65
0821010500 161S 764E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 76.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 76.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.8S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.2S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.2S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.0S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.8S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.1S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.1S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 76.4E.
05JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A TIMELY 042355Z GPM 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED THE CURVED BANDING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KTS) AND A 041915Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
55 KTS, AND CLOSER TO A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT)
CURRENT INTENSITY OF T3.9 (63 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND MODERATE RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC DANILO IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE THE
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NER TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. AS THE STR BECOMES THE MAIN
STEERING MECHANISM AT TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 96. IN THE NEAR TERM TC
DANILO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12, POSSIBLY RAPIDLY,
DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 DUE TO
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND MAINTAIN A 70KTS INTENSITY THEREAFTER
THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 96, TC
DANILO WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. IMPROVING OUTFLOW
ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 80 KTS BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT,
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 41NM AT TAU 24, AND ONLY MAXES TO 133
NM BY TAU 120. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050014
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/6/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 76.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SO: 510 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SO: 280 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 06/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 06/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SO: 325 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 65

48H: 07/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 55

60H: 07/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 195 SO: 280 NO: 55

72H: 08/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 175 SO: 270 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 470 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 20 NO: 65

120H: 10/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 470 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 30 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DE CDO S'EST BIEN
MAINTENUE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 2006Z
SUGGERENT QUE LA CONSOLIDATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE SE POURSUIT.
AU VU DE L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION PRESENT SUR L'IMAGE 89GHZ AMSR2 ET EN
ACCORD AVEC L'ESTIMATION DVORAK, L'INTENSITE EST REMONTEE AU NIVEAU
DE LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. CEPENDANT, L'IMAGE 37GHZ MONTRE UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST ET SA COMPARAISON AVEC L'IMAGE
89GHZ SUGGERE UN DECALAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. AINSI, LE CISAILLEMENT
DE NORD-EST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SEMBLE DEJA AFFECTER LA STRUCTURE
DU SYSTEME. LES ANALYSES DE MID-SHEAR DU CIMSS SUPPORTENT CETTE
HYPOTHESE, D'AUTANT QUE LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES
DISPONIBLES MONTRENT DES SIGNES DE DESORGANISATION DU CDO.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE
DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST CE MATIN. ENSUITE, SUITE A
L'EVACUATION DE LA DORSALE A QUATORIALE VERS L'EST, DANILO DEVRAIT
GRADUELLEMENT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. EN TOUTE FIN DE PERIODE, DANILO POURRAIT
TOURNER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE MAIS LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST
PARTICULIEREMENT IMPORTANTE A CES ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE.
CE MATIN, UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-EST AUGMENTE EN MOYENNE
PUIS EN HAUTE TROPOSPHERE. IL DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ADVECTER DE
L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR DU PHENOMENE. LA MAJORITE DES MODELES
DISPONIBLES SUGEERENT AINSI UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT. AINSI, DANILO DEVRAIT
DERIVER SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES A UNE
INTENSITE FAIBLE OU MODEREE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. VENDREDI, LA
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIT SE RELACHER ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE SE
METTRE EN PLACE, CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE REINTENSIFICATION DU
METEORE LE WEEK-END PROCHAIN. CEPENDANT, D'AUTRES MODELES PREVOIENT
LE MAINTIEN DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEFAVORABLES AU
DEVELOPPEMENT DE DANILO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050014
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 76.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SW: 510 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SW: 325 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 175 SW: 270 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 470 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 20 NW: 65

120H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 470 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 30 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CDO PATTERN MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER. THE
2006Z AMSR2 MW IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER
STRUCTURE KEEPS ON. GIVEN THE INNER CONVECTION RING DISPLAYED ON THE
89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE, THE
SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO THE SEVER TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
HOWEVER, THE 37GHZ IMAGE WHOS A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND ITS COMPARISON WITH THE 89GHZ IMAGE SUGGEST A
SOUTH-WESTWARD TILT. THUS, THE NORTH-EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR COULD
ALREADY BE AFFECTING DANILO'S STRUCTURE. THE MID-SHEAR CIMSS ANALYSIS
SUPPORT THIS HYPOTHESIS. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERY LAST SAT IMAGES
AVAILABLE ARE ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DISORGANIZATION OF THE CDO.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP
ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARD TODAY. FROM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD, DANILO IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID/LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. AT THE END OF THE TAUS, DANILO COULD TURN
SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT
THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THESE FORECAST LEAD
TIMES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN.
THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY IN THE MID THEN
UPPER LEVELS. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY INJECT DRY AIR IN THE INNER CORE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THUS SUGGEST A
WEAKENING TREND. DANILO IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AT A WEAK TO MODERATE INTENSITY. FROM
FRIDAY, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF AND A GOOD UPPER OUTFLOW
COULD APPEAR, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE TO DANILO'S DEVELOPMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050006
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 05/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 76.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 275 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/05 AT 12 UTC:
16.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/06 AT 00 UTC:
17.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041826
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 77.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SO: 510 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 130 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 315 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 05/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 345 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 120 NO: 85

36H: 06/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 240 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 55 NO: 65

48H: 06/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SO: 215 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 45 NO: 65

60H: 07/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 270 SO: 305 NO: 55

72H: 07/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 545 SO: 470 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 120

120H: 09/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 565 SO: 470 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SO: 70 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DE PUISSANTES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES
SE SONT MAINTENUES PRES DU CENTRE. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST DONC
DE NOUVEAU EN AMELIORATION AVEC LE MAINTIEN D'UN CDO AUX SOMMETS TRES
FROIDS. L'IMAGE 91GHZ SSMIS DE 1355Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE EN
COURS DE RECONSOLIDATION AVEC L'EMERGENCE D'UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION
ENCORE MAL DEFINI SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. LA PASSE ASCAT-A DE 1600Z A
PERMIS DE CONFIRMER UNE REAUGMENTATION DES VENTS EN SURFACE, TOUT EN
PERMETTANT UNE REACTUALISATION DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE
DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST CE SOIR ET DEMAIN MATIN. A PARTIR
DE LA MI-JOURNEE DE MARDI, SUITE A L'EVACUATION DE LA DORSALE A
QUATORIALE VERS L'EST, DANILO DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT REPRENDRE UN
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. EN
TOUTE FIN DE PERIODE, DANILO POURRAIT TOURNER EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE MAIS LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES EST PARTICULIEREMENT IMPORTANTE A CES
ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE.
LE SYSTEME POURRAIT BENEFICIER DE CONDITIONS ENCORE PLUTOT PROPICES A
UNE COURTE PERIODE DE REINTENSIFICATION CETTE NUIT. CEPENDANT, DES
DEMAIN MATIN, UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-EST SE MET EN PLACE EN
MOYENNE PUIS EN HAUTE TROPOSPHERE. IL DEVRAIT ADVECTER
PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR DU PHENOMENE. LA
MAJORITE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES SUGEERENT AINSI UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT,
MAIS PAS TOUS. SELON LE CONSENSUS CHOISI PAR LE CMRS, DANILO DEVRAIT
DERIVER SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES A UNE
INTENSITE FAIBLE OU MODEREE. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LA CONTRAINTE
D'ALTITUDE POURRAIT SE RELACHER ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE SE METTRE EN
PLACE, CE QUI PERMETTRAIT UNE NETTE REINTENSIFICATION DU METEORE.
CEPENDANT, D'AUTRES MODELES PREVOIENT UN RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT
DE NORD-EST QUI MAINTIENDRAIT DANILO A UNE FAIBLE INTENSITE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041826
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 77.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SW: 510 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/05 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 315 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 345 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 85

36H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 240 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 215 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 270 SW: 305 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 545 SW: 470 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 120

120H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 565 SW: 470 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SW: 70 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAINTAINED NEAR THE
CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS THUS IMPROVING WITH A CDO ASSOCIATED TO
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SSMIS 1355Z 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
RE-CONSOLIDATING INNER STRUCTURE, WITH THE EMERGENCE OF AN INNER
CONVECTION RING THAT IS STILL ILL-DEFINED ON THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE 1600Z ASCAT-A SWATH CONFIRMED AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS, WHILE PROVIDING RECENT WINDS EXTENSIONS DATA.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP
ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. FROM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD,
DANILO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE MID/LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. AT THE END OF THE TAUS,
DANILO COULD TURN SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS PARTICULARLY HIGH AT
THIS FORECAST LEAD TIMES.

INTENSITYWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THE STORM
COULD BENEFIT FROM RATHER GOOD CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY DURING A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. HOWEVER, TOMORROW, A NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD UP AT THE MID THEN HIGH LEVELS. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY
INJECT DRY AIR IN THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THUS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND, BUT NOT ALL.
FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS CHOSEN BY THE RMSC, DANILO IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AT A
WEAK TO MODERATE INTENSITY. FROM FRIDAY, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT COULD
EASE OFF AND A GOOD UPPER OUTFLOW COULD APPEAR, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN
DANILO IN A WEAKENED STATE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041818
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 77.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 275 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/05 AT 06 UTC:
16.4 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/05 AT 18 UTC:
16.9 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210104135548
2021010412 08S DANILO 011 01 170 07 SATL 060
T000 154S 0762E 050 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 161S 0763E 055 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 168S 0762E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 171S 0752E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 171S 0733E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 168S 0699E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 168S 0663E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 180S 0622E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 76.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 76.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.1S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.8S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.1S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.1S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.8S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.8S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 76.2E.
04JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS MOST LIKELY COMPLETELY ABSORBED THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S OVER THE PREVIOUS 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT WAS INVEST 93S TO THE NORTHWEST HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, AND CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FLARE OVER THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041100Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS, WITH THE LLCC JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION, PROVIDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF PGTW / FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T3.5 (35-45 KTS), AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.6 (56 KTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) WATERS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE NER WEAKENS AND RETREATS WESTWARD, AND A THE STR TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PRESUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE, PUSHING THE SYSTEM TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT TURN POLEWARD BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST AND THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE GALWEM AND UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AFTER ABSORBTION OF 93S, BUT THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TAU 36, LIMITED BY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BY TAU 48, SLOWLY IMPROVING OUTFLOW, LOW VWS AND CONTINUED WARM SSTS WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THOUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010400 138S 758E 55
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010406 147S 761E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
0821010412 154S 762E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 76.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 76.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.1S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.8S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.1S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.1S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.8S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.8S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 76.2E.
04JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS MOST LIKELY COMPLETELY ABSORBED THE
REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S OVER THE PREVIOUS 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE AREA OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT WAS INVEST 93S TO
THE NORTHWEST HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, AND CONVECTION
HAS STARTED TO FLARE OVER THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 041100Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED WELL DEFINED
CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS, WITH
THE LLCC JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION, PROVIDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 50 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF PGTW / FMEE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T3.5 (35-45 KTS), AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T3.6 (56 KTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53
KTS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS)
VWS, WARM (28-29C) WATERS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE NER WEAKENS AND
RETREATS WESTWARD, AND A THE STR TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. BY
TAU 36, THE STR WILL STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PRESUME THE DOMINATE
STEERING ROLE, PUSHING THE SYSTEM TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
EAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT TURN POLEWARD BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK
SCENARIO BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF THE TURN TO THE WEST AND THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE GALWEM AND
UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AFTER
ABSORBTION OF 93S, BUT THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TAU 36, LIMITED BY
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BY TAU 48, SLOWLY IMPROVING OUTFLOW, LOW VWS
AND CONTINUED WARM SSTS WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THOUGH TAU
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041313
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 76.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 270 NO: 95

24H: 05/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 250 NO: 95

36H: 06/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 130 NO: 55

48H: 06/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 55

60H: 07/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SO: 55 NO: 65

72H: 07/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 230 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 175 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 45 NO: 65

120H: 09/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SO: 390 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 20 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIA RES SIX HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A PROXIMITE
DU CENTRE DE DANILO S'EST LOCALEMENT RENFORCA , ET LE CENTRE EST A
NOUVEAU NOYE DANS LA MASSE. LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDE NE
MONTRENT PAS D'ORGANISATION BIEN DA FINIE, HORMIS LA PRESENCE DE CB A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION. L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE DU
SYSTEME EST DONC MAINTENUE A 35 KT.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES : FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX DE SUD-EST EN LIEN AVEC
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LE SYSTEME VA SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 48H. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, SUITE A L'EVACUATION DE LA
DORSALE A QUATORIALE VERS L'EST, DANILO DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UN
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE.
EN EFFET, LE SYSTEME VA RENCONTRER AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD. PLUSIEURS SCA NARIOS SE DESSINENT A
MOYENNE ECHEANCE SELON LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES DETERMINISTES. LE
MODELE ANGLAIS ET DES MEMBRES DE L'EPS PREVOIENT UN SYSTEME QUI
RESISTE AU CISAILLEMENT ET SE REINTENSIFIE SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE
ALORS QUE LE MODELE EUROPEEN PROPOSE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT QUASI
DEFINITIF DU PHENOMENE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041313
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 76.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 270 NW: 95

24H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 250 NW: 95

36H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 55 NW: 65

72H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 230 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 45 NW: 65

120H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 20 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

IN THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR DANILO CENTRE HAS
BEEN LOCALLY REINFORCED, AND THE CENTRE IS ONCE AGAIN EMBEDDED IN THE
CDO. THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA DO NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED
ORGANISATION, APART FROM THE PRESENCE OF CB IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRE. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED
AT 35 KT.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS: NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW IN RELATION TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW IN
RELATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, FOLLOWING THE EVACUATION
OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, DANILO SHOULD RESUME A
GENERAL WESTERLY MOVEMENT ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN.
INDEED, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A NORTH SECTOR SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL SCENARIOS ARE EMERGING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCES. THE ENGLISH MODEL
AND MEMBERS OF THE EPS FORECAST A SYSTEM THAT RESISTS SHEAR ALOFT AND
REINTENSIFIES BELOW THE HIGH RIDGE, WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN MODEL
PROPOSES AN ALMOST DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041230
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 76.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/05 AT 00 UTC:
15.7 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/05 AT 12 UTC:
16.2 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040720
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 75.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 335 SO: 370 NO: 465
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 380 SO: 390 NO: 350

24H: 05/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 405 SO: 390 NO: 345

36H: 05/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 435 SO: 390 NO: 335

48H: 06/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 465 SO: 390 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 240 NO: 165

60H: 06/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 490 SO: 390 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 165

72H: 07/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SO: 390 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 175

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 575 SO: 390 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 185

120H: 09/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 630 SO: 390 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 90

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=4.0

AU COURS DE SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A PROXIMITE
DU COEUR DE DANILO A NETTEMENT FAIBLI. LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES DE LA
FIN DE NUIT ONT MONTRE LA POURSUITE DE LA DEGRADATION DE LA
CIRCULATION DE SURFACE (SSMIS 0120Z). LES PASSES SCATTEROMETRIQUES DE
CE MATIN, N'ONT PAS MONTRE DES VENTS SUPERIEURS A 35KT, QUE CA SOIT
LES PASSES ASCAT B ET C OU LA SCATSAT. LE SYSTEME A EGALEMENT
FORTEMENT RALENTI CE QUI EST COHERENT AVEC UN CHANGEMENT DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR ET DONC UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN CONSEQUENCE LE SYSTEME A ETE
DECLASSE AU STADE INFERIEUR AVEC UNE INTENSITE MAXIMALE DE 35KT.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES : FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX DE SUD-EST EN LIEN AVEC
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LE SYSTEME VA SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 48H. A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR OU MERCREDI, SUITE A LA
DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE A QUATORIALE, DANILO DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UN
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT OBSERVE CETTE NUIT NE SEMBLE PAS LIE A UN
CISAILLEMENT SYNOPTIQUE. IL SE POURRAIT QU'IL SOIT DUE A
L'INTERACTION AVEC LA CIRCULATION DU SYSTEME 05 QUI A COMMENCE A
TOURNER AUTOUR DU COEUR DE DANILO. CE SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
SE RENFORCER LIMITATNT LES CHANCES D'INTENSIFICATION A COURTE
ECHEANCE.

EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DANILO DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLES. NEANMOINS CETTE
REPRISE D'INTENSIFICATION DEPENDRA FORTEMENT DE L'INTENSITE ET LA
STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME AU MOMENT DE LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT VERS
L'OUEST. LES DERNIERS RUNS DU MDOELE EUROPEEEN SUGGERENT UNE
DISPARITION TOTALE DE LA CIRCULATION INTERNE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040720
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 75.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/04 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 380 SW: 390 NW: 350

24H: 2021/01/05 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 405 SW: 390 NW: 345

36H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 435 SW: 390 NW: 335

48H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 165

60H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 490 SW: 390 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 165

72H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 175

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 575 SW: 390 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 185

120H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 630 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 90

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

IN THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR DANILO'S CORE HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE LATE NIGHT MICROWAVE SWATHS SHOWED THE
CONTINUED DEGRADATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (SSMIS 0120Z).
THIS MORNING SCATTEROMETER SWATHS DID NOT SHOW WINDS ABOVE 35KT,
EITHER ASCAT B AND C OR SCATSAT. THE SYSTEM ALSO SLOWED DOWN
STRONGLY, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
FLOW AND THEREFORE A WEAKENING. CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM WAS
DOWNGRADED TO THE LOWER STAGE WITH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 35KT.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING STEERING FLOWS: NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LINKED TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LINKED TO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
48H. FROM TUESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWING THE COLLAPSING OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, DANILO SHOULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL HIGHS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FORECAST IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE
WEAKENING OBSERVED OVERNIGHT DOES NOT SEEM RELATED TO A VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BUT RATHER TO THE DETRIMENTAL INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM 5
ROTATING AROUND DANILO CORE. TONIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR RENEWED DEEPENING AT SHORT RANGE.


IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO SHOULD REGAIN MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL. THIS SECOND DEEPENING WILL HOWEVER LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
PHASE. LAST EUROPEAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST A POSSIBLE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE
INNER CORE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 040634
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 75.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
15.0 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 190 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/05 AT 06 UTC:
15.4 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 185 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210104015742
2021010400 08S DANILO 010 01 150 15 SATL 050
T000 141S 0760E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 151S 0764E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 160S 0765E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 165S 0761E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 167S 0748E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 164S 0716E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 161S 0678E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 169S 0623E 080 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.1S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.0S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.5S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.7S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.4S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.1S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.9S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 76.1E.
04JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 468
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010318 128S 753E 55
0821010400 141S 760E 60
0821010400 141S 760E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.1S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.0S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.5S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.7S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.4S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.1S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.9S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 76.1E.
04JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
468 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 08S IS
UNDERGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S,
WHICH HAS WEAKENED AND IS CURRENTLY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF TC 08S. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO DISCRETE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION: THE EASTERN,
LARGER AREA OF EXPANDING CONVECTION OBSCURING TC DANILO'S LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND A SMALLER, MORE LINEAR AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S. A 032351Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES OF TC 08S WITH THE LLCC POSITIONED ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED AN AVERAGE OF PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.5-T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) AND A 040115Z ADT ESTIMATE OF
3.9 (63 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28-29C). HOWEVER, THE ABSORPTION OF
INVEST 93S IS LIKELY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL, THERE IS NOW
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS
AND A NEAR-COMPLETE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
INVEST 93S, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION. THE
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12-24. NEAR TAU 24,
INVEST 93S WILL GET FULLY ABSORBED INTO TC 08S AND A STR WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A MORE
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY
AFTER TAU 48 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. IMPROVED POLEWARD
VENTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72 WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS ANTICIPATED AT TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND
050300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040055
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/6/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.3 S / 76.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 165 SO: 95 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SO: 85 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 55 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 05/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SO: 95 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 05/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 75 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 45 NO: 65

48H: 06/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 65

60H: 06/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 07/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 55 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 35 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 09/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 65 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 55 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

DANILO A PRESENTE TOUTE LA NUIT UN CENTRE NOYE SOUS UNE MASSE
CONVECTIVE AUX SOMMETS TRES FROIDS ET PRESENTANT PAR MOMENT DES
VEILLEITES DE POINT CHAUD. LA SSMI DE 2225Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE
CENTRALE COMPACTE SANS COEUR TOUTEFOIS BIEN CONSTITUE. L'INTENSITE
FINALE EST LAISSEE A 55 KT EN LIMITE HAUTE DES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES
A 50-55 KT (SATCON ET ADT).

SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME, DANILO ACCELERE VERS LE
SUD-EST.
LUNDI ET MARDI, UN RALENTISSEMENT CONSEQUENT EST ATTENDU SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES : FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EN
LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX DE SUD-EST EN LIEN AVEC LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR OU MERCREDI, SUITE A LA
DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE A QUATORIALE, DANILO DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UN
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST ENCORE ASSEZ FAVORABLE
AUJOURD'HUI (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT ET ENVIRONNEMENT ENCORE ASSEZ HUMIDE
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE). L'INTENSITE EST LEGEREMENT AUGMENTEE DURANT
CETTE PERIODE MAIS COMPTE TENU DES PETITES DIMENSIONS DU SYSTEME, UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE APPARAA T COMME UNE ALTERNATIVE
CREDIBLE. DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI, L'ENVIRONNEMENT SE DEGRADE
AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ASSOCIE A
DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION. DANILO DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE MINIMAL DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE PENDANT CETTE PERIODE.
EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DANILO DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUS FAVORABLES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION
TRES GRADUELLE. (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET
ENVIRONNEMENT GRADUELLEMENT PLUS HUMIDE).

BIEN QUE LA MAJORITA DES GUIDANCES PARTENT SUR CE SCA NARIO DE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST, IL RESTE UNE GRANDE VARIABILITE D'UN RESEAU
A L'AUTRE. IL EXISTE DONC ENCORE UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LE
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION QUI POURRAIT A TRE MOINDRE EN FONCTION DE
LA LOCALISATION DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET LE TIMING DU VIRAGE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040055
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 76.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 55 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 75 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 45 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 55 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 35 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 65 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

DANILO PRESENTED ALL NIGHT LONG A CENTER COVERED UNDER A CONVECTIVE
MASS WITH VERY COLD TOPS AND PRESENTING AT TIMES SOME HINTS OF A WARM
SPOT. THE SSMI OF 2225Z SHOWS A COMPACT CENTRAL STRUCTURE WITHOUT
WELL DEFINED INNER CORE. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 55 KT AT THE
UPPER LIMIT OF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AT 50-55 KT (SATCON AND ADT).

UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
MID-TROPOSPHERE PRESENT IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, DANILO
ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A CONSEQUENT SLOWDOWN IS EXPECTED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING STEERING FLOWS: NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINKED TO
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LINKED TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. FROM TUESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWING THE COLLAPSING OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, DANILO SHOULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL HIGHS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL QUITE FAVORABLE TODAY
(LOW SHEAR AND STILL QUITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE). THE INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THIS PERIOD
BUT CONSIDERING THE SMALL DIMENSIONS OF THE SYSTEM, A MORE MARKED
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS AS A CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVE. DURING THE NIGHT
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE ENVIRONMENT DEGRADES WITH THE PRESENCE OF
A SHEAR CONSTRAINT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION. DANILO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
POTENTIALLY TO THE MINIMAL STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DURING
THIS PERIOD.
IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO SHOULD REGAIN MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR A VERY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
(LOW SHEAR BELOW THE UPPER RIDGE AND GRADUALLY MOISTER ENVIRONMENT).

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE START ON THIS WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY SCENARIO, THERE IS STILL A GREAT VARIABILITY FROM ONE RUN
TO ANOTHER. THERE IS THEREFORE STILL A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE LESS, DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 040022
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 76.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 12 UTC:
15.7 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/05 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210103200455
2021010318 08S DANILO 009 01 135 10 SATL XTRP 050
T000 127S 0750E 055 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 138S 0759E 050 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 149S 0762E 050 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 157S 0758E 045 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 161S 0747E 045 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 158S 0718E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 161S 0673E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 167S 0627E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 75.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 75.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.8S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.9S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.7S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.1S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.8S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.1S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.7S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 75.2E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010306 115S 734E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010312 120S 743E 55
0821010318 127S 750E 55
0821010318 127S 750E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 75.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 75.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.8S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.9S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.7S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.1S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.8S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.1S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.7S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 75.2E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
367 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 08S IS UNDERGOING FUJIWHARA
INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S, WHICH HAS WEAKENED AND
IS CURRENTLY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF TC
08S. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SYMMETRIC AREA OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 031409Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH (BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY) SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED
ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A 031446Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 56 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C).
HOWEVER, THE ABSORPTION OF INVEST 93S, APPROXIMATELY 140NM
SOUTH, IS LIKELY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE ONGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST
93S, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE 03/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
STRIKE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC, WHICH SHOWS LARGE SPREAD (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY SWATH
SIMILAR TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GALWEM
AND NAVGEM TRACKERS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION WITH A 170-250NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
FROM TAU 96 TO 120. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU
12-24. NEAR TAU 24-36, INVEST 93S WILL GET FULLY ABSORBED INTO TC
08S AND A STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL PRODUCE
A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36-48 BUT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY STEADILY
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS ANTICIPATED AT TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND
042100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031854
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/6/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.1 S / 75.3 E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/01/2021 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 04/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 55 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 05/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 05/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 95

60H: 06/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 110 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85

72H: 06/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 370 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 175

120H: 08/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 435 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 90

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

MALGRE LE FAIT QUE LE CDO SOIT DE PLUS PETITE TAILLE QUE 24H
AUPARAVANT, CELUI-CI RESTE CARACTERISE PAR DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS
AVEC DES VELLEITES DE POINTS CHAUD. DE PLUS LA GPM DE 1320Z A MONTRE
QUE LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL EST MIEUX DEFINI A LA FOIS EN 89 ET 37 GHZ
AVEC MOINS DE TILT QUE PRECEDEMENT. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE MONTRE EN
OUTRE QUE CETTE STRUCTURE EN OEIL S'INSERE AU SEIN D'UN COEUR CENTRAL
DE DIMENSION TRES REDUITE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST HAUSSEE A 55
KT EN SE BASANT SUR LA LIMITE HAUTE DES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES QUI
SONT A 50-55 KT.

L'INTERACTION AVEC LE SYSTEME 05 A INFLECHIE LE DEPLACEMENT DE DANILO
VERS LE SUD-EST. RENFORCE PAR L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME,
DANILO CONTINUERA A ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST.
LUNDI ET MARDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES : FLUX
DE NORD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX DE SUD-EST
EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DANILO RALENTIRA SA
TRAJECTOIRE.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, SUITE A LA DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE A
QUATORIALE, DANILO DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST ENCORE ASSEZ FAVORABLE AU
COURS DES PREMIERES 24H. L'INTENSITE EST PLAFONEE DURANT CETTE
PERIODE MAIS COMPTE TENU DES PETITES DIMENSIONS DU SYSTEME, UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE APPARAA T COMME UNE ALTERNATIVE
CREDIBLE. DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI, L'ENVIRONNEMENT SE DEGRADE
AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ASSOCIE A
UN ENVIRONNEMENT SEC FAVORISANT LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AU SEIN DE
LA CIRCULATION. DANILO DEVRAIT PEINER A SE MAINTENIR AU STADE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE PENDANT CETTE PERIODE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, AVEC L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DALINO DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUS FAVORABLES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE).

BIEN QUE LA MAJORITA DES GUIDANCES PARTENT SUR CE SCA NARIO DE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST, IL RESTE UNE GRANDE VARIABILITE D'UN RESEAU
A L'AUTRE. IL EXISTE DONC ENCORE UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LE
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION QUI POURRAIT A TRE MOINDRE EN FONCTION DE
LA LOCALISATION DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET LE TIMING DU VIRAGE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031854
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 75.3 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/04 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/04 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2021/01/05 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95

60H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 110 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85

72H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 370 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 175

120H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 435 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 90

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE CDO IS SMALLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, IT IS
STILL CHARACTERIZED BY VERY COLD TOPS WITH SOME HINT OF A WARM SPOT
BY TIME. MOREOVER THE GPM OF 1320Z SHOWED THAT THE EYE STRUCTURE IS
BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH 89 AND 37 GHZ WITH LESS TILT THAN BEFORE. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS FURTHERMORE THAT THIS EYE STRUCTURE FITS INTO
A VERY SMALL CENTRAL CORE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 55
KT BASED ON THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WHICH ARE
50-55 KT.

THE INTERACTION WITH THE 05 SYSTEM INFLECTED THE SOUTHEASTWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF DANILO. REINFORCED BY THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT IN THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM, DANILO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL
FLOWS: NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS LINKED TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOWS LINKED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO WILL SLOW
DOWN ITS TRACK.
FROM WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWING THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
DANILO SHOULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK ON THE NORTH FACE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL QUITE FAVORABLE
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FLAT DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT CONSIDERING THE SMALL DIMENSIONS OF THE SYSTEM, A MORE
MARKED INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE A CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVE. DURING
THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE ENVIRONMENT DETERIORATES WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A CONSTRAINT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, ASSOCIATED
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT FAVORING THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
CIRCULATION. DANILO SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE DURING THIS PERIOD.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, WITH THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DALINO SHOULD FIND MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR BELOW THE
HIGH RIDGE).

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCES START ON THIS WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY SCENARIO, THERE IS STILL A GREAT VARIABILITY FROM ONE
SYSTEM TO ANOTHER. THERE IS THEREFORE STILL A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON
THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 031833 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 03/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 75.3 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 245 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
14.8 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
15.8 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 031830
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 03/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 75.3 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 245 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
14.8 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
15.8 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210103133242
2021010312 08S DANILO 008 01 130 09 SATL 060
T000 123S 0742E 055 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 136S 0756E 055 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 148S 0761E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 158S 0761E 045 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 164S 0754E 045 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 166S 0723E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 166S 0683E 060 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 170S 0637E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 74.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 74.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.6S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.8S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.8S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.4S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.6S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.6S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.0S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 74.6E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FORMING A SYMMETRIC OVERCAST, OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031117Z SSMI COLOR 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH WEAKER CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE, AND ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.5 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK STEADILY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS AND LOW VWS BEING OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND GLOBAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAS BEGUN. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, 93S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF TC 08S THEN WRAP TOWARDS TC 08S, ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO ONE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. DURING THIS PROCESS TC 08S, AS THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS, WILL SLOWLY TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK WHILE SLOWING DOWN IN RESPONSE BOTH TO THE INTERACTION WITH 93S AND MOVEMENT INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE COL REGION BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 48 THE STR BUILDS IN SUFFICIENTLY TO NUDGE TC 08S ONTO A WESTWARD TRACK AND AS THE STR BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED, WILL SUPPORT A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS NOW DEPICTING A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL TRACKS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREE ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND GALWEM WHICH ARE NOW SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST AND EVENTUAL LOOP BACK TO THE NORTH. OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, GFS HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EQUATORWARD TRACK AFTER THE TURN TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THOUGH THE OVERALL SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE IT THROUGH TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE ULTIMATE TRACK WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE INTENSITY AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 117S 735E 55
0821010306 117S 735E 55
0821010312 123S 742E 55
0821010312 123S 742E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 74.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 74.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.6S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.8S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.8S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.4S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.6S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.6S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.0S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 74.6E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FORMING A SYMMETRIC OVERCAST,
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031117Z SSMI
COLOR 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH WEAKER CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.5 (55 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE, AND ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.5 AND A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK
STEADILY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS AND LOW VWS BEING OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
200NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND GLOBAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THE BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAS
BEGUN. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, 93S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO
THE SOUTH OF TC 08S THEN WRAP TOWARDS TC 08S, ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO
ONE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. DURING THIS PROCESS TC 08S, AS THE
DOMINATE OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS, WILL SLOWLY TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWARD
TRACK WHILE SLOWING DOWN IN RESPONSE BOTH TO THE INTERACTION WITH 93S
AND MOVEMENT INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE COL REGION
BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 48 THE STR BUILDS IN SUFFICIENTLY TO
NUDGE TC 08S ONTO A WESTWARD TRACK AND AS THE STR BECOMES MORE
ENTRENCHED, WILL SUPPORT A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS NOW DEPICTING A
WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL TRACKS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREE ON
THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC (GFS)
AND GALWEM WHICH ARE NOW SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST AND EVENTUAL LOOP
BACK TO THE NORTH. OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, GFS HAS
DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EQUATORWARD TRACK AFTER THE TURN TO THE WEST. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THOUGH THE OVERALL
SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE IT
THROUGH TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE ULTIMATE TRACK WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON THE INTENSITY AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN BOTH THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/6/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.9 S / 74.3 E
(ONZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 55 SO: 85 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/01/2021 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 30 NO: 65

24H: 04/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 75 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 30 NO: 75

36H: 05/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 45 NO: 75

48H: 05/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 100 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 06/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 95

72H: 06/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 130 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 100

120H: 08/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 150 SO: 65 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS
LA MASSE S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX RESTANT BIEN
FROIDS. LES DERNIERES DONNEES VENT SATELLITE ASCAT-A DE 03H30UTC ET
05UTC CONFIRMENT LA PRESENCE DE VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT DANS LE
CADRAN NORD-EST. LE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST DES TOUTES DERNIERES
HEURES MARQUENT LE DEBUT DE LA PERIODE D'INTERACTION AVEC LA
CIRCULATION DU SYSTEME 05 SITUA AU SUD ET QUI CIRCULE POUR SA PART
PLEIN OUEST.
LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 08H30UTC MONTRENT UN LEGER
TILD VERS L'OUEST, RESULTANT D'UNE CONTRAITE D'EST SUD-EST DE L'ORDRE
DE 15/20KT SELON LES DONNA ES DU CIMSS.

L'INTERACTION AVEC LE SYSTEME 05 DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT INFLECHIR LE
DEPLACEMENT DE DALINO VERS LE SUD-EST RENFORCE PAR L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
PRESENTE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME, DANILO CONTINUERA A ACCELERER VERS
LE SUD-EST.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES :
FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX DE
SUD-EST EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DANILO RALENTIRA SA
TRAJECTOIRE.
A PARTIR DE MARDI, SUITE A LA DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE A
QUATORIALE, DANILO POURRAIT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
PEU FAVORABLE A L'INTENSIFICATION POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES, AVEC
LA PRESENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ASSOCIE A UN
ENVIRONNEMENT SEC FAVORISANT LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATIION.
DANILO DEVRAIT PEINER A SE MAINTENIR AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE PENDANT CETTE PERIODE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, AVEC L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DALINO DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUS FAVORABLES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE).

BIEN QUE LA MAJORITA DES GUIDANCES PARTENT SUR CE SCA NARIO DE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST, IL RESTE UNE GRANDE VARIABILITE D'UN RESEAU
A L'AUTRE. IL EXISTE DONC ENCORE UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LE
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION QUI POURRAIT A TRE MOINDRE EN FONCTION DE
LA LOCALISATION DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET LE TIMING DU VIRAGE. LA
PRA SENTE PRA VISION PRA SENTE UN SCA NARIO AVANTAGEUX POUR
L'INTENSIFICATION DE DANILO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 74.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/04 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 30 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 75 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 30 NW: 75

36H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 75

48H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 95

72H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 130 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100

120H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 150 SW: 65 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH CLOUD TOPS REMAINING QUITE COLD.
THE LAST SATELLITE WIND DATA ASCAT-A OF 03H30UTC AND 05UTC CONFIRM
THE PRESENCE OF WINDS OF AROUND 50KT IN THE NORTH-EAST QUADRANT. THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LAST FEW HOURS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE
INTERACTION PERIOD WITH THE 05 SYSTEM CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTH,
WHICH IN TURN TRACKS WESTWARD.
THE LAST MICROWAVE DATA AMSR2 OF 08H30UTC SHOW A SLIGHT TILDE TOWARDS
THE WEST, RESULTING FROM AN EAST-SOUTH-EAST CONSTRAINT OF AROUND
15/20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA.


THE INTERACTION WITH THE 05 SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INFLECT THE
SOUTHEASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF DALINO REINFORCED BY THE GROWING
INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT
IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, DANILO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD.
FROM MONDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS:
NORTHWEST FLOW LINKED TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
LINKED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO WILL SLOW DOWN ITS TRACK.
FROM TUESDAY, FOLLOWING THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
DANILO COULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTWARD SHIFT ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE
HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT
VERY FAVOURABLE TO INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS, WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN MID TROPOSPHERE CONSTRAINT, ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY
ENVIRONMENT FAVOURING DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO THE CIRCULATION.
DANILO SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REMAIN AT THE STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM DURING THIS PERIOD.
FROM THURSDAY, WITH THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM UNDER THE EFFECT
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO SHOULD FIND MORE FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR BELOW THE
HIGH RIDGE).


ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCES START ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK
SCENARIO,THERE IS STILL GREAT VARIABILITY FROM ONE RUN TO ANOTHER.
THERE IS STILL A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE PRESENT FORECAST
PRESENTS AN ADVANTAGEOUS SCENARIO FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF DANILO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 031219 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 03/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 74.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCME.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 00 UTC:
13.8 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT,
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 12 UTC:
15.0 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT,
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 031214
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 03/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 74.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCME.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 00 UTC:
13.8 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT,
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 12 UTC:
15.0 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT,
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 11.7S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.8S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.0S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.0S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.0S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.6S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.1S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 73.9E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OF THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
A SHARP EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF, INDICATIVE OF
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT. A BROAD EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH MODERATE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IN A
030455Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICRWAVE IMAGE, AS WELL AS A 030457Z ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS, PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.5 (55 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (52
KTS) AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS, WHICH SHOWED A SMALL
AREA OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS, AND MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VWS, BUT RESTRICTED SOMEWHAT BY A MARGINAL OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT WITH NO DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SOME EASTERLY
PRESSURE FROM A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLCONE TO THE SOUTEAST NEAR
INVEST 93S IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF TC 08S. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THIS
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, INVEST 93S, APPROXIMATELY 260NM TO THE SOUTHEAST, WILL
TRACK WEST TO THE SOUTH OF TC 08S. AFTER TAU 36 HOWEVER, INVEST 93S
WILL BEGIN TO FUJIWHARA WITH TC 08S AND TRACK NORTHWARDS AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 08S WHICH, WHEN COMBINED BY A WEAKENING OF
THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WILL RESULT IN A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED OF TC 08S. INVEST 93S IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ABSORBED
BY TC 08S BY TAU 48. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS
MODIFIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A SHARP TURN WESTWARD BY TAU 72. TC 08S IS
THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE TURN TO THE WEST. IN LIGHT OF THE
RECENT MOTION, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN PUSHED A BIT TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH WHILE RETAINING THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO. THE GFS AND
HWRF REMAIN THE EASTERN OUTLIERS WHILE NAVGEM IS THE WESTERNMOST OF
THE TRACKERS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN THE POLEWARD OUTLIER THEREAFTER.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION, BUT, IN
LIGHT OF THE OVERALL UNCERTAINY IN THE GUIDANCE, IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12,
BUT WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS THE CORE IS DISRUPTED BY
INTERACTION AND ULTIMATE ABSORBTION OF INVEST 98S. AFTER THE SYSTEM
REFORMS AND BEGINS TO MOVE WEST, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, WITH DECREASED VWS AND MORE ROBUST OUTFLOW,
ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN, WITH A RANGE BETWEEN 40 KNOTS TO 95
KNOTS BETWEEN MODEL OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WHICH IS BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, BUT ABOVE IT AFTER TAU 96. IN LIGHT OF THE
EXTREME UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210103080108
2021010306 08S DANILO 007 01 120 08 SATL 060
T000 117S 0735E 055 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 128S 0749E 055 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 140S 0757E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 150S 0761E 045 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 160S 0759E 045 R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 166S 0732E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 167S 0693E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 171S 0646E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 11.7S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.8S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.0S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.0S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.0S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.6S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.1S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 73.9E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A SHARP EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF INDICATIVE OF EASTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT. A BROAD EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IN A 030455Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICRWAVE IMAGE, AS WELL AS A 030457Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (52 KTS) AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS, WHICH SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS, AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, BUT RESTRICTED SOMEWHAT BY A MARGINAL OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT WITH NO DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SOME EASTERLY PRESSURE FROM A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLCONE TO THE SOUTEAST NEAR INVEST 93S WHICH IS IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF TC 08S. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, INVEST 93S, CURRENTLY APPROXIMATELY 260NM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TRACK WEST TO THE SOUTH OF TC 08S. AFTER TAU 36 HOWEVER, INVEST 93S WILL BEGIN TO FUJIWHARA WITH TC 08S AND TRACK NORTHWARDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 08S, WHICH WHEN COMBINED BY A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WILL RESULT IN A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OF TC 08S. INVEST 93S IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ABSORBED BY TC 08S BY TAU 48. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS MODIFIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A SHARP TURN WESTWARD BY TAU 72. TC 08S IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE TURN TO THE WEST. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT MOTION, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN PUSHED A BIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WHILE RETAINING THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO. THE GFS AND HWRF REMAIN THE EASTERN OUTLIERS WHILE NAVGEM IS THE WESTERNMOST OF THE TRACKERS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN THE POLEWARD OUTLIER THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION, BUT IN LIGHT OF THE OVERALL UNCERTAINY IN THE GUIDANCE IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12, BUT WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS THE CORE IS DISRUPTED BY INTERACTION AND ULTIMATE ABSORBTION OF INVEST 98S. AFTER THE SYSTEM REFORMS AFTER ABSORBTION OF 93S AND BEGINS TO MOVE WEST, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, WITH DECREASED VWS AND MORE ROBUST OUTFLOW, ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN, WITH A RANGE BETWEEN 40 KNOTS TO 95 KNOTS BETWEEN MODEL OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WHICH IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, BUT ABOVE IT AFTER TAU 96. IN LIGHT OF THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010300 113S 728E 50
0821010306 117S 735E 55
0821010306 117S 735E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030642
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/6/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.9 S / 73.5 E
(ONZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SO: 85 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/01/2021 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 55 SO: 30 NO: 95

24H: 04/01/2021 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 55 NO: 75

36H: 04/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 65

48H: 05/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 75

60H: 05/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 75 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 75

72H: 06/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 95 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 370 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85

120H: 08/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 425 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE
S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX RESTANT BIEN FROIDS. LES
DERNIERES DONNEES VENT SATELLITE ASCAT-A DE 03H30UTC CONFIRMENT LA
PRESENCE DE VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT DANS LE CADRAN NORD-EST. ASSOCIA
AU SYSTEME 05, LOIN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, L'ACTIVITA CONVECTIVE
EST FORTE DANS LA ZONE DE RALENTISSEMENT DU FLUX DE MOUSSON.

DANILO CONTINUE SON DA PLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST AVEC UNE ACCA LA
RATION PROGRESSIVE. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME, DANILO CONTINUERA A
ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES :
FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX DE
SUD-EST EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DANILO RALENTIRA SA
TRAJECTOIRE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, SUITE A LA DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE
A QUATORIALE, DANILO POURRAIT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX. LE TIMING DE CE RALENTISSEMENT SUIVI DU VIRAGE SERA DA
CISIF POUR LA PRA VISION D'INTENSITA .

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT A TRE GA NER PROCHAINEMENT
PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, ET L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DANS LE
CADRAN NORD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION. SOUS CES CONDITIONS, DANILO
DEVRAIT SUBIR UN LA GER AFFAIBLISSEMENT. SUIVANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PRA
VUE DONT LE TIMING A SON IMPORTANCE, DANILO DEVRAIT SE PLACER
PROGRESSIVEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI SOUS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE
(FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE).

BIEN QUE LA MAJORITA DES GUIDANCES PARTENT SUR CE SCA NARIO DE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST, IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR
LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION QUI POURRAIT A TRE MOINDRE EN FONCTION
DE LA LOCALISATION DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET DU TIMING DU VIRAGE
VERS L'OUEST. LA PRA SENTE PRA VISION PRA SENTE UN SCA NARIO
AVANTAGEUX POUR L'INTENSIFICATION DE DANILO.GRANDISSANTE DE LA
DORSALE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 73.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/03 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 55 SW: 30 NW: 95

24H: 2021/01/04 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 75

36H: 2021/01/04 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/05 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75

60H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 75 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 75

72H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 95 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85

120H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 425 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE NIGHT, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH CLOUD TOPS REMAINING QUITE COLD. THE LAST SATELLITE
WIND DATA ASCAT-A OF 03H30UTC SHOW WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 50KT IN THE
NORTH-EAST QUADRANT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE 05 SYSTEM, FAR IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STRONG IN THE AREA OF
SLOWING MONSOON FLOW.

DANILO CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH A GRADUAL
ACCELERATION. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR EQUATORIAL
MID-TROPOSPHERE, DANILO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
FROM MONDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS:
NORTHWEST FLOW LINKED TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
LINKED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO WILL SLOW DOWN ITS TRACK.
FROM TUESDAY, FOLLOWING THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
DANILO COULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTWARD SHIFT ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE
HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THE TIMING OF THIS SLOWDOWN FOLLOWED
BY THE TURN WILL BE DECISIVE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE GENERATED SOON BY THE
PRESENCE OF A NORTHWESTERN CONSTRAINT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, AND
THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE INTO THE
NORTH-EAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS,
DANILO SHOULD PRESENT A SLIGHT WEAKENING.
FOLLOWING THE FORECASTED TRACK, WHOSE TIMING IS IMPORTANT, DANILO
SHOULD BE UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY FROM
TUESDAY FOR A MORE MARKED INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR BELOW THE HIGH
RIDGE).

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCES START ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK
SCENARIO, THERE IS STILL A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE PRESENT FORECAST
PRESENTS AN ADVANTAGEOUS SCENARIO FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF DANILO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 030624
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 03/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 73.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 400NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CERCME.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/03 AT 18 UTC:
13.3 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
14.7 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
SQUALLY WEATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM 05=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210103024103
2021010300 08S DANILO 006 01 115 02 SATL 045
T000 112S 0726E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 123S 0738E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 135S 0748E 045 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 148S 0753E 040 R034 130 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 155S 0753E 040 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 159S 0739E 045 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 159S 0699E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 159S 0663E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 190 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.3S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.5S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.8S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.5S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.9S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.9S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.9S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 72.9E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
0821010300 112S 726E 50
0821010300 112S 726E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.3S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.5S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.8S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.5S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.9S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.9S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.9S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 72.9E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
246 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
030003Z SSMIS 89 GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS DEEPER
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AT 50 KTS AND IS
HEDGED BETWEEN THE PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND T3.5 (55 KTS) RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.2 (49 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 93S
(LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM SOUTHEAST OT TC 08S), EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW FROM INVEST 93S IS IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF TC
08S AND IS SHEARING CORE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
THROUGH TAU 18 WITH LIMITED ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED. BY
TAU 24, TC 08S SHOULD BE WITHIN 60 NM OF INVEST 93S AT WHICH POINT
THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT UNTIL INVEST 93S IS
ABSORBED INTO TC 08S AROUND TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE, CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE WESTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEMS INTERACT AND
MERGE, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO FIRST WEAKEN AND THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS WESTWARD DUE TO WARM SST, IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, AND LOW VWS. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY INDUCED INTO THE FORECAST BY THE ONGOING FUJIWHARA
INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. OVERALL, THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK, TRACK SPEED, AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030023
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/6/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.5 S / 72.9 E
(ONZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/01/2021 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 75 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 100

24H: 04/01/2021 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 04/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 120 SO: 230 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65

48H: 05/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95

60H: 05/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 95

72H: 06/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SO: 315 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75

120H: 08/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE
S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX RESTANT BIEN FROIDS. LE
CENTRE ESTIMA SE SITUE SOUS LA MASSE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST DU FAIT
D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST. SUIVANT L'ANALYSE DVORAK, IL EST
POSSIBLE DE DA FINIR UNE VALEUR A 3.5. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNA ES VENT
SATELLITE, L'ESTIMATION DES VENTS DA COULANT DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST
PRISE ET LAISSE DONC DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT. A 00UTC, DANILO
PASSE DONC LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPA TE TROPICALE. ASSOCIA AU SYSTEME
05, LOIN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, L'ACTIVITA CONVECTIVE EST FORTE
DANS LA ZONE DE RALENTISSEMENT DU FLUX DE MOUSSON.

DANILO CONTINUE SON DA PLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST AVEC UNE ACCA LA
RATION PROGRESSIVE. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DU RENFORCEMENT D'UN FLUX D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST PROCHE
EQUATORIAL DE MOYENNE TROPO, DANILO CONTINUERA A ACCELERER VERS LE
SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRAIRES : FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE
ET FLUX DE SUD-EST EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DANILO
RALENTIRA SA TRAJECTOIRE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, SUITE A LA DISPARITION
DE LA DORSALE A QUATORIALE, DANILO POURRAIT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT
EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX. LE TIMING DE CE RALENTISSEMENT SUIVI DU
VIRAGE SERA DA CISIF POUR LA PRA VISION D'INTENSITA .

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT A TRE GA NER PROCHAINEMENT
PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR SEC. CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT PRA SENTER SUR
DANILO UN LA GER AFFAIBLISSEMENT. SUIVANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PRA VUE DONT
LE TIMING A SON IMPORTANCE, DANILO DEVRAIT SE PLACER A A CHA ANCE DE
MARDI SOUS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES POUR UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT SOUS LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE).

BIEN QUE LA MAJORITA DES GUIDANCES PARTENT SUR CE SCA NARIO DE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST, IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR
LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION QUI POURRAIT A TRE MOINDRE EN FONCTION
DE LA LOCALISATION DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET DU TIMING DU VIRAGE
VERS L'OUEST. LA PRA SENTE PRA VISION PRA SENTE UN SCA NARIO
AVANTAGEUX POUR L'INTENSIFICATION DE DANILO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 72.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 75 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 100

24H: 2021/01/04 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 120 SW: 230 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95

60H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 95

72H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE NIGHT, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH CLOUD TOPS REMAINING QUITE COLD. THE ESTIMATED CENTER
IS BELOW THE MASS IN THE SOUTH-EST SECTOR DUE TO A NORTHWEST
CONSTRAINT. FOLLOWING THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, IT IS POSSIBLE TO DEFINE A
VALUE OF 3.5. IN THE ABSENCE OF SATELLITE WIND DATA, THE WIND
ESTIMATE RESULTING FROM THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS TAKEN AND THEREFORE
LEAVES WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 50KT. AT 00UTC, DANILO PASSES THE
THRESHOLD OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. ASSOCIATED WITH THE 05 SYSTEM,
FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STRONG IN THE
AREA OF SLOWING MONSOON FLOW.

DANILO CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH A GRADUAL
ACCELERATION. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-TROPOSPHERE,
DANILO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. FROM MONDAY, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS: NORTHWEST FLOW LINKED TO
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW LINKED TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, DANILO WILL SLOW DOWN ITS TRACK. FROM TUESDAY, FOLLOWING THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, DANILO COULD RESUME A GENERAL
WESTWARD SHIFT ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL
GEOPOTENTIALS. THE TIMING OF THIS SLOWDOWN FOLLOWED BY THE TURN WILL
BE DECISIVE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE GENERATED SOON BY THE
PRESENCE OF A NORTHWESTERN CONSTRAINT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR. THIS STRESS SHOULD PRESENT A SLIGHT
WEAKENING ON DANILO. FOLLOWING THE FORECASTED TRACK, WHOSE TIMING IS
IMPORTANT, DANILO SHOULD BE UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BY TUESDAY FOR A MORE MARKED INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR BELOW THE
HIGH RIDGE).

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCES START ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK
SCENARIO, THERE IS STILL A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE PRESENT FORECAST
PRESENTS AN ADVANTAGEOUS SCENARIO FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF DANILO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 030003
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 03/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 72.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/03 AT 12 UTC:
12.8 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/04 AT 00 UTC:
14.7 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
SQUALLY WEATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM 05=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210102195342
2021010218 08S DANILO 005 01 135 01 SATL 045
T000 111S 0724E 045 R034 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 118S 0735E 050 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 129S 0745E 045 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 141S 0752E 040 R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 151S 0754E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 160S 0736E 045 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 160S 0706E 055 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 159S 0669E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 11.8S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.9S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.1S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.1S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.0S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.0S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.9S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 72.7E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 109S 722E 45
0821010212 110S 723E 45
0821010218 111S 724E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 11.8S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.9S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.1S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.1S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.0S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.0S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.9S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 72.7E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A
021701Z ASCAT-C WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH 42
KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED
ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 021745Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C).
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 93S, APPROXIMATELY 323NM
SOUTHEAST, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM 93S IS IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN
QUADRANT OF TC 08S, WHICH IS SHEARING CORE CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
IN GENERAL, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE ONGOING FUJIWHARA
INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE
02/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE STRIKE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC, WHICH SHOWS LARGE
SPREAD (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY SWATH SIMILAR TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE, SIMILARLY, SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS WITH
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK, TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS, AND IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12-24. AFTER TAU 24, INVEST 93S
WILL APPROACH WITHIN 100NM AND THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL FUJIWHARA AND
INVEST 93S WILL GET ABSORBED INTO TC 08S BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48,
THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE
WESTWARD. THE COMPLEX TRACK SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 12
THEN WEAKENING AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT AND MERGE. AFTER TAU 48,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE WITH WARM SST (28-
29C), IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH AND LOW VWS--THIS SHOULD ALLOW TC 08S TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021906
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 02/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.1 S / 72.4 E
(ONZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/01/2021 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

24H: 03/01/2021 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 55 NO: 85

36H: 04/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 140 SO: 195 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95

48H: 04/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95

60H: 05/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 100

72H: 05/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SO: 315 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 75

120H: 07/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 415 SO: 295 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 285 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DE DERNIA RES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS
LA MASSE S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC TOUTEFOIS UN FORT REFROIDISSEMENT DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX. L'ANALYSE DVORAK LAISSE TOUJOURS DANILO AU STADE DE
TEMPA TE TROPICALE MODA RA E CE QUE VALIDE LA PASSE SCATSAT DE
1430UTC.

DANILO A ENTAMA SON DA PLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST A UNE ALLURE
ENCORE FAIBLE. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU
RENFORCEMENT D'UN FLUX D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST PROCHE EQUATORIAL DE
MOYENNE TROPO, DANILO DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST. AVEC
L'EFFONDREMENT DE LA CONVECTION, LE SYSTA ME 05 VA PROGRESSIVEMENT
DISPARAITRE SOUS L'EFFET DE DANILO. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES : FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EN
LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX DE SUD-EST EN LIEN AVEC LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DANILO RALENTIRA SA TRAJECTOIRE. A PARTIR DE
MARDI, SUITE A LA DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE A QUATORIALE, DANILO
POURRAIT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST
SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ENCORE QUELQUE
PEU AU COURS DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES. PUIS DU FAIT DE LA PRESENCE
D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIEE A DE
L'AIR SEC, DANILO DEVRAIT PRA SENTER UN LA GER AFFAIBLISSEMENT.
SUIVANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PRA VUE, DANILO SE PLACERA SOUS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE
(FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE).

BIEN QUE LA MAJORITA DES GUIDANCES PARTENT SUR CE SCA NARIO DE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST, IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION QUI POURRAIT A TRE MOINDRE EN FONCTION DE
LA LOCALISATION DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET DU TIMING DU VIRAGE VERS
L'OUEST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021906
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1 S / 72.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/03 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

24H: 2021/01/03 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 85

36H: 2021/01/04 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 140 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95

48H: 2021/01/04 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95

60H: 2021/01/05 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100

72H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 415 SW: 295 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH HOWEVER A STRONG COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS STILL LEAVES DANILO AT THE STAGE OF A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM, WHICH IS VALIDATED BY THE SCATSAT SWATH OF 1430UTC.

DANILO STARTED ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AT A STILL WEAK PACE. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-TROPICAL FLOW, DANILO IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH THE COLLAPSE OF
CONVECTION, THE 05 SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DISAPPEAR UNDER THE EFFECT
OF DANILO. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING
DIRECTIONAL FLOWS: NORTHWEST FLOW RELATED TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW RELATED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO WILL SLOW ITS
TRACK. FROM TUESDAY, FOLLOWING THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, DANILO COULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTERLY SHIFT ON THE NORTH FACE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
MID-LEVELS NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, DANILO
SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WEAKENING. FOLLOWING THE FORECASTED TRACK,
DANILO WILL PLACE ITSELF UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO
A MORE MARKED INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR BELOW THE HIGH RIDGE).

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCES START ON THIS SCENARIO OF A
WESTWARD TRACK, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION, WHICH COULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE
HIGH RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 021817
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 02/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1 S / 72.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/03 AT 06 UTC:
12.0 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/03 AT 18 UTC:
14.0 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210102134040
2021010212 08S DANILO 004 01 105 04 SATL 060
T000 108S 0725E 045 R034 085 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 114S 0734E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 125S 0744E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 137S 0751E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 150S 0755E 040 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 159S 0744E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 160S 0720E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 162S 0685E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 10.8S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.4S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.5S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.7S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.0S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.9S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.0S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.2S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 72.7E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH A SHARP EASTERN (UPSHEAR) BOUNDARY AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED OUTER BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 021133Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE IN LINE WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE FMEE ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND ADT/SATCON ESTIMATES BETWEEN 50-55 KTS BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A GENERALLY MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, BEING OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION OF ITS OWN WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE IMPACT FROM INVEST 93S, CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SHARP UPSHEAR BOUNDARY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFIRMS HOWEVER THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY HIGH EASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93S TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS INDICATED BY THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR, TC 08S APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH TC 08S CONTINUING TO TRACK GNERALLY SOUTHEAST WHILE 93S TRACKS WEST THEN NORTH AS IT WRAPS INTO AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO TC 08S BY APPROXIMATELY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TC 08S IS TO SLOW AS IT ENTERS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER AND A BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72 THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM, AND TC 08S ACCELERATES WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION IS STILL VERY COMPLEX DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 08S AND INVEST 93S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY, BUT HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE SOUTHEAST TRACK, THEN WESTWARD, THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN TERMS OF TRACK SPEED AND TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE WEST. THE GFS, COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AND HWRF ARE GROUPED CLOSELY TOGETHER ON THE EASTERN MOST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE NAVGEM, GALWEM, AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE GROUPED ON THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSELY TRACKING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEAR-TERM AS VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG, PEAKING AT 50 KTS BY TAU 12. AS INVEST 93S BEGINS TO FUJIWHARA AND MERGE WITH TC 08S, IT WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY, TO 40 KTS. ONCE THE MERGER IS COMPLETE AND THE SYSTEM STARTS MOVING WEST IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM (27-28C) SSTS, LOW VWS AND MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, PEAKING AT 70 KTS BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A PEAK NEAR 100 KTS BY TAU 120, WHILE THE SHIPS-GFS INDICATES A 30 KT INTENSITY AT TAU 120. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST HAS INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN, THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE RESULTANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 107S 721E 45
0821010212 108S 725E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 10.8S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.4S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.5S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.7S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.0S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.9S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.0S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.2S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 72.7E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH A SHARP EASTERN
(UPSHEAR) BOUNDARY AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED OUTER BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 021133Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
DEPICTED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE IN LINE WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE FMEE
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND ADT/SATCON ESTIMATES BETWEEN 50-55 KTS
BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A GENERALLY MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, BEING OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP A
SECONDARY CIRCULATION OF ITS OWN WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE
IMPACT FROM INVEST 93S, CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SHARP UPSHEAR BOUNDARY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFIRMS
HOWEVER THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY HIGH EASTERLY
SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93S TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
INDICATED BY THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR, TC 08S APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED
TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC
08S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH TC 08S CONTINUING TO TRACK GNERALLY SOUTHEAST
WHILE 93S TRACKS WEST THEN NORTH AS IT WRAPS INTO AND BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO TC 08S BY APPROXIMATELY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TC 08S IS TO SLOW
AS IT ENTERS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER AND A BUILDING
STR TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72 THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING
MECHANISM, AND TC 08S ACCELERATES WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE
METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION IS STILL VERY COMPLEX DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 08S AND INVEST 93S. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY, BUT HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE
SOUTHEAST TRACK, THEN WESTWARD, THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
TERMS OF TRACK SPEED AND TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE WEST.
THE GFS, COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AND HWRF ARE GROUPED CLOSELY TOGETHER
ON THE EASTERN MOST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE NAVGEM,
GALWEM, AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE GROUPED ON THE WEST.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSELY TRACKING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TC
08S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEAR-TERM AS VWS IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG,
PEAKING AT 50 KTS BY TAU 12. AS INVEST 93S BEGINS TO FUJIWHARA AND
MERGE WITH TC 08S, IT WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY, TO 40 KTS.
ONCE THE MERGER IS COMPLETE AND THE SYSTEM STARTS MOVING WEST IN
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM (27-28C) SSTS, LOW VWS AND
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED, PEAKING AT 70 KTS BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A PEAK NEAR 100 KTS
BY TAU 120, WHILE THE SHIPS-GFS INDICATES A 30 KT INTENSITY AT TAU
120. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST HAS INCREASED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS RUN, THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS AND THE RESULTANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z,
030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021248
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 02/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8 S / 72.3 E
(DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/01/2021 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 155

24H: 03/01/2021 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 155

36H: 04/01/2021 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 155

48H: 04/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 155

60H: 05/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 155

72H: 05/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 335 SO: 230 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 155

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SO: 260 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 75

120H: 07/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 435 SO: 295 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 285 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

LE CENTRE DE DANILO EST RESTE MASQUE PAR DE LA CONVECTION TRES
PROFONDE ASSOCIEE A DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS MALGRE LA PHASE
DEFAVORABLE DU CYCLE DIURNE DE LA CONVECTION OCEANIQUE. L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE EST MONTEE A 45 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES GUIDANCES
OBJECTIVES (SATCON, ADT) QUI SONT MAINTENANT A 45/50 KT. LA SSMI DE
1133Z MONTRE QU'UN OEIL DE MOYENNE TROPO, LEGEREMENT TILTE VERS LE
NORD-OUEST, EST APPARU.

DANILO A GLOBALEMENT PEU BOUGE AUJOURD'HUI. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
HEURES, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU RENFORCEMENT D'UN FLUX D'OUEST A
NORD-OUEST PROCHE EQUATORIAL EN MOYENNE TROPO ET EN LIEN AVEC L'EFFET
FUJIWHARA AVEC LE SYSTEME 05, DANILO DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS LE
SUD-EST. ALE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE RESTE QUE LA TEMPETE DANILO
PRENNE LE DESSUS TANDIS QUE LE SYSTEME 05 FINISSE PAR DISPARAITRE AU
SEIN DE SA CIRCULATION.

EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, UNE FOIS LA CIRCULATION DU SYSTEME 05
DISPARUE, LE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT NETTEMENT RALENTIR EN RAISON DE LA
PRESENCE DE PLUSIEURS FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES : FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX DE SUD-EST EN LIEN AVEC
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE MARDI OU MERCREDI, ET LA
DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT REPRENDRE
UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE RENFORCER ENCORE QUELQUE
PEU A TRES COURT TERME. DES LA FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE, L'INTERACTION
DEFAVORABLE AVEC LE SYSTEME 05 ET LA PRESENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR SEC, POURRAIT
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. PAR LA SUITE, A L'ISSUE DE LA DISPARITION
PROBABLE DU SYSTEME 5, DANILO POURRAIT BENEFICIER DE CONDITIONS PLUS
FAVORABLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT
SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE).

DEPUIS LE RESEAU DE 06Z, LA CONFIANCE EST ACCRUE EN CE SCENARIO
PUISQU'IL EST SUGGERE PAR L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES FIABLES ET UN
GRAND NOMBRE DE MEMBRES DES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES EPS ET GEFS.
NEANMOINS COMPTE TENU DE LA COMPLEXITE DE LA SITUATION
METEOROLOGIQUE, L'INCERTITUDE SUR CETTE PREVISION RESTE IMPORTANTE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 72.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/03 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 155

24H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 155

36H: 2021/01/04 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 155

48H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 155

60H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 155

72H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 335 SW: 230 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 155

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SW: 260 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 435 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

THE CENTER OF DANILO REMAINS COVERED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TOPS DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE PHASE OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE OF OCEANIC CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW AT
45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (SATCON, ADT) WHICH
ARE NOW NEAR 45/50 KT. THE SSMI OF 1133Z SHOWS THAT A MIS LEVELS EYE,
SLIGHTLY TILTED TO THE NORTHWEST, HAS APPEARED.

DANILO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVERALL TODAY. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
FUJIWHARA EFFECT WITH THE 05 SYSTEM, DANILO SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE STORM DANILO WILL
TAKE OVER WHILE SYSTEM 05 WILL EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR IN ITS
CIRCULATION.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, ONCE THE CIRCULATION OF SYSTEM 05 DISAPPEARS, THE
MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
SEVERAL OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS: NORTHWEST FLOW RELATED TO THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RELATED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM COULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION ON THE NORTH
FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM. BY THE END OF NEXT NIGHT, THE UNFAVORABLE
INTERACTION WITH SYSTEM 05 AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVELS
NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, COULD WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THEREAFTER, AFTER THE PROBABLE DISAPPEARANCE OF SYSTEM 5,
DANILO COULD BENEFIT FROM MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING
(LOW SHEAR BELOW THE UPPER RIDGE).

SINCE THE 06Z RUN, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO HAS INCREASED
SINCE IT IS SUGGESTED BY ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCES AND A LARGE NUMBER OF
MEMBERS OF THE EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS,
CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION, THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS FORECAST REMAINS IMPORTANT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 021206
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 02/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 72.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/03 AT 00 UTC:
11.5 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 85 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/03 AT 12 UTC:
13.0 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 85 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210102074248
2021010206 08S DANILO 003 01 025 04 SATL 060
T000 105S 0722E 045 R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 107S 0729E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 116S 0738E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 128S 0745E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 143S 0747E 040 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 155S 0743E 045 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 160S 0727E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 162S 0693E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 10.5S 72.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 72.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 10.7S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 11.6S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.8S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.3S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.5S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.0S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.2S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 72.4E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UNFORTUNATELY, THERE HAS BEEN NO MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE 020100Z TO ASSIST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION, HOWEVER A TIMELY 020402Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED ENOUGH COVERAGE OF THE CIRCULATION TO LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (50 KTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA, WHICH INDICATED 40-45 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALSYSIS SUPPORTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. HOWEVER, THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM INVEST 93S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430NM EAST-SOUTHEAST IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VWS OF TC 08S, SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT IS STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER TO A MORE EASTWARD TRACK AS THE NER TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. AS THIS NER CONTINUES TO BUILD, TC 08S WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHEAST, THEN SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY COMPLEX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FUJIWHARA INTERACTION AND ULTIMATE MERGER WITH INVEST 93S APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THE UNCERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS INTERACTION ON THE TRACK IS REFLECTED IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BIFURCATION WITH HWRF, GFS, COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AND GALWEM SHOWING A SOUTHEAST OR EAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120, WHILE THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, NAVGEM, UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM VERSION) INDICATE A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, THEN A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST. THE LATTER GROUPING OF MODELS INDICATE THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO, WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHEY OF THE STRONG NER THROUGH TAU 36, THEN SLOWING AND TURNING SOUTH AS IT UNDERGOES BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S, ULTIMATELY ABSORBING IT BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, A STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS A MELD OF BOTH SCENARIOS, BUT FAVORS THE LATTER GROUPING OF MODELS AFTER TAU 36. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILARLY COMPLEX, PRIMARILY IN LIGHT OF THE IMPACT OF THE INTERACTION AND ABSORBTION OF INVEST 93S. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO FIGHT OFF THE EASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF INVEST 93S. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS AND MERGES WITH 93S, THEN STEADY AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER IMPROVED CONDITIONS OF WARM (27-28C) SSTS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VWS. DUE TO THE VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY SCENARIO AND GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 109S 720E 40
0821010206 105S 722E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 10.5S 72.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 72.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 10.7S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 11.6S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.8S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.3S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.5S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.0S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.2S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 72.4E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE HAS BEEN NO MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE 020100Z TO ASSIST WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION, HOWEVER A TIMELY 020402Z PARTIAL
ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED ENOUGH COVERAGE OF THE CIRCULATION
TO LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM
PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (50 KTS) AND A SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA, WHICH INDICATED 40-45 KNOT WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALSYSIS SUPPORTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C)
SSTS. HOWEVER, THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM INVEST 93S LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 430NM EAST-SOUTHEAST IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VWS OF TC 08S, SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT IS STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER TO
A MORE EASTWARD TRACK AS THE NER TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. AS THIS NER
CONTINUES TO BUILD, TC 08S WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHEAST, THEN SOUTHWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY
COMPLEX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FUJIWHARA INTERACTION AND ULTIMATE
MERGER WITH INVEST 93S APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THE UNCERTAIN IMPACT
OF THIS INTERACTION ON THE TRACK IS REFLECTED IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BIFURCATION WITH HWRF, GFS,
COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AND GALWEM SHOWING A SOUTHEAST OR EAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 120, WHILE THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, NAVGEM, UKMET,
UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM VERSION) INDICATE A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, THEN A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST.
THE LATTER GROUPING OF MODELS INDICATE THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO, WITH
THE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHEY OF THE STRONG NER
THROUGH TAU 36, THEN SLOWING AND TURNING SOUTH AS IT UNDERGOES BINARY
INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S, ULTIMATELY ABSORBING IT BY TAU 72. AFTER
TAU 72, A STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING TC 08S TO
ACCELERATE TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS A MELD OF
BOTH SCENARIOS, BUT FAVORS THE LATTER GROUPING OF MODELS AFTER TAU 36.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILARLY COMPLEX, PRIMARILY IN LIGHT OF THE
IMPACT OF THE INTERACTION AND ABSORBTION OF INVEST 93S. TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES
TO FIGHT OFF THE EASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF INVEST 93S.
BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS
AND MERGES WITH 93S, THEN STEADY AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER IMPROVED CONDITIONS
OF WARM (27-28C) SSTS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE
VWS. DUE TO THE VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY
SCENARIO AND GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE
JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND
030900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020635
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.5 S / 72.0 E
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/01/2021 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 110

24H: 03/01/2021 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 95 SO: 30 NO: 100

36H: 03/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 85

48H: 04/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 130 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 85

60H: 04/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 95

72H: 05/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 75

120H: 07/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 110 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

LA CONFIGURATION A PEU EVOLUEE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H AVEC UN
CENTRE TOUJOURS SITUEE EN BORDURE EST D'UNE MASSE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE
A DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE RESTE A 40 KT EN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES A 35/40 KT ET LES
GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES (SATCON, ADT) A 40/45 KT.

EN BORDURE LOINTAINE NORD-NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DANILO
A CONTINUE UNE LENTE DERIVE EN DIRECTION DU NORD CES DERNIERES
HEURES. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU
RENFORCEMENT D'UN FLUX D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST PROCHE EQUATORIAL EN
MOYENNE TROPO ET EN LIEN AVEC L'EFFET FUJIWHARA AVEC LE SYSTEME 05,
DANILO DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST. AU VU DES DERNIERES
GUIDANCES, IL SEMBLE TOUJOURS PLUS PROBABLE QUE LA TEMPETE DANILO
PRENNE LE DESSUS TANDIS QUE LE SYSTEME 05 FINISSE PAR DISPARAITRE AU
SEIN DE SA CIRCULATION. NEANMOINS DANS CE CONTEXTE LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. CETTE
PREVISION SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES FRANCAIS EUROPEENS ET
ANGLAIS, QUI SEMBLENT MIEUX ANALYSER LA SITUATION QUE LE MODELE
AMERICAIN.

EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, UNE FOIS LA CIRCULATION DU SYSTEME 05
DISPARU, LE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT NETTEMENT RALENTIR EN RAISON DE LA
PRESENCE DE PLUSIEURS FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES : FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX DE SUD-EST EN LIEN AVEC
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, ET LA DISPARITION DE
LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT
EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE RENFORCER ENCORE A COURT
TERME (JUSQU'EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE). AU-DELA, L'INTERACTION
DEFAVORABLE AVEC LE SYSTEME 05, LA PRESENCE D'UNE FORTE CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR SEC, A PARTIR
DE DIMANCHE POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. PAR LA SUITE, A L'ISSUE DE
LA DISPARITION PROBABLE DU SYSTEME 5, DANILO POURRAIT BENEFICIER DE
CONDITIONS PLUTOT FAVORABLE A UNE POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION PLUS
MARQUEE ... SI IL CONTINUE DE BENEFICIER D'UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES BIEN DEFINIE ...

IL EST DONC IMPORTANT DE SOULIGNER QUE CE SCENARIO DE PREVISION RESTE
TRES INCERTAIN ET NE FAIT PAS UNANIMITE PARMI LES GUIDANCES
HABITUELLEMENT FIABLES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 72.0 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/02 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 110

24H: 2021/01/03 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 95 SW: 30 NW: 100

36H: 2021/01/03 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 85

48H: 2021/01/04 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85

60H: 2021/01/04 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 95

72H: 2021/01/05 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 110 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

THE CONFIGURATION HAS EVOLVED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A
CENTER ALWAYS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TOPS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 40
KT IN COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AT 35/40 KT AND THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (SATCON, ADT) AT 40/45 KT.

AT THE FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO HAS
CONTINUED A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND TO THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
WITH THE 05 SYSTEM, DANILO SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
IN VIEW OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE, IT SEEMS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
THE STORM DANILO WILL TAKE OVER WHILE THE SYSTEM 05 WILL EVENTUALLY
DISAPPEAR WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS IN THIS CONTEXT THE
FORECAST OF TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY REMAINS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE FRENCH EUROPEAN AND
ENGLISH MODELS, WHICH SEEM TO ANALYZE THE SITUATION BETTER THAN THE
AMERICAN MODEL.

AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ONCE THE CIRCULATION OF THE 05 SYSTEM
HAS DISAPPEARED, THE MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS: NORTHWEST FLOW
LINKED TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW LINKED TO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM WEDNESDAY, AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM MAY RESUME A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION ON
THE NORTHERN FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER IN THE
SHORT TERM (UNTIL NEXT NIGHT). BEYOND THAT, THE UNFAVORABLE
INTERACTION WITH THE 05 SYSTEM, THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG NORTHWESTERN
STRESS IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, FROM SUNDAY
ON, COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER, AFTER THE PROBABLE
DISAPPEARANCE OF SYSTEM 5, DANILO MAY BENEFIT FROM CONDITIONS RATHER
FAVORABLE TO A POSSIBLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ... IF IT STILL HAVE
A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVELS CIRCULATION ...

IT IS THEREFORE IMPORTANT TO UNDERLINE THAT THIS FORECAST SCENARIO
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AND IS NOT UNANIMOUS AMONG THE USUALLY
RELIABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 020617
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 02/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 72.0 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/02 AT 18 UTC:
11.0 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/03 AT 06 UTC:
13.0 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210102012617
2021010200 08S DANILO 002 01 015 04 SATL 040
T000 108S 0720E 040 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 109S 0727E 045 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 116S 0735E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 128S 0741E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 140S 0743E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 157S 0741E 045 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 165S 0727E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 169S 0700E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 10.8S 72.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 72.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 10.9S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.6S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.8S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.0S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.5S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 72.2E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 719E 40
0821010200 108S 720E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 10.8S 72.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 72.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 10.9S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.6S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.8S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.0S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.5S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 72.2E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
224 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER AN OBSCURED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 020100Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF AN INTENSE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE PGTW/FMEE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C). HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST
93S, APPROXIMATELY 512NM EAST-SOUTHEAST, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM
93S IS IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF TC 08S, WHICH IS
SHEARING CORE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. IN GENERAL, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FUJIWHARA WITH INVEST 93S LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE 01/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE STRIKE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC,
WHICH SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY SWATH SIMILAR TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST AND A LOW PROBABILITY SWATH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, SIMILARLY, SHOWS A BIFURCATION WITH HWRF, UK-MET
AND COAMPS-TC(GFS AND NAVGEM VERSIONS) SHOWING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
WHILE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND UEMN
INDICATE A SOUTHWARD THEN WESTWARD TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST
FAVORS THE LATTER MODELS FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS: INITIALLY THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24-36; AFTER TAU 36, INVEST 93S
WILL APPROACH WITHIN 200NM AND THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL FUJIWHARA
(PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE) WITH TC 08S THE DOMINANT SYSTEM; INVEST
93S WILL GET ABSORBED INTO TC 08S BY TAU 72; AND AFTER TAU 72, THE
STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD.
THE COMPLEX TRACK SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 24 THEN
WEAKENING AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT AND MERGE. AFTER TAU 72,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH WARM SST (28-29C),
IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND LOW VWS--THIS SHOULD ALLOW TC 08S TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND
030300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020058
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 02/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.7 S / 71.9 E
(DIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/01/2021 12 UTC: 10.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 55 SO: 120 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 10 SO: 35 NO: 110

24H: 03/01/2021 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 65 SO: 165 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 10 SO: 35 NO: 100

36H: 03/01/2021 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 10 SO: 45 NO: 65

48H: 04/01/2021 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 04/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 65

72H: 05/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 165 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 75

120H: 07/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, UNE CONVECTION TRES PROFONDE AVEC
DES SOMMETS PARTICULIEREMENT FROIDS S'EST MAINTENUE PRES DU CENTRE.
LA PASSE SSMI DE 2255Z SUGGERE L'INFLUENCE D'UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR EST. LA SIGNATURE DE LA CIRCULATION DE SURFACE
SEMBLE PAR CONTRE S'ETRE AMELIOREE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC REHAUSSE A
40KT.

EN BORDURE LOITAINE NORD-NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DANILO
S'EST LENTEMENT DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DU NORD CES DERNIERES HEURES. AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU FLUX D'OUEST
EQUATORIAL PUIS EN LIEN AVEC L'EFFET FUJIWHARA AVEC LE SYSTEME 05,
DANILO DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST. AU VU DES DERNIERES
GUIDANCES, IL SEMBLE MAINTENANT PLUS PROBABLE QUE LA TEMPETE DANILO
PRENNE LE DESSUS TANDIS QUE LE SYSTEME 05 FINISSE PAR DISPARAITRE AU
SEIN DE SA CIRCULATION. NEANMOINS DANS CE CONTEXTE LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. CETTE
PREVISION SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES FRANCAIS EUROPEENS ET
ANGLAIS, QUI SEMBLENT MIEUX ANALYSER LA SITUATION QUE LE MODELE
AMERICAIN.

A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, L'ARRIVEE D'UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE EQUATORIALE
PAR LE NORD-EST DEVRAIT ACCELERER LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE
SUD. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, UNE FOIS LA CIRCULATION DU
SYSTEME 05 DISPARU, LE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT NETTEMENT RALENTIR EN
RAISON DE LA PRESENCE DE PLUSIEURS FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES : FLUX
DE NORD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX D'EST EN
LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, ET LA
DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REPRENDRE
SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST SUD OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, EN PLUS DE L'INTERACTION DEFAVORABLE AVEC LE
SYSTEME 05, LA PRESENCE D'UNE FORTE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME. PAR LA SUITE, A L'ISSUE DE LA DISPARITION PROBABLE DU
SYSTEME 5, DANILO DEVRAIT BENEFICIER DE CONDITIONS PLUTOT FAVORABLE
AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UNE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT.
NEANMOINS, L'INTENSITE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE DEPENDRA FORTEMENT DE
L'INTENSITE DE LA CIRCULATION A L'ISSUE DE LA FUSION DES DEUX
CIRCULATIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020058
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 71.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/02 12 UTC: 10.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 10 SW: 35 NW: 110

24H: 2021/01/03 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 65 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 10 SW: 35 NW: 100

36H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 10 SW: 45 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/04 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 65

72H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 165 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, A VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH PARTICULARLY
CLOUD TOPS OCCURED NEAR THE CENTER. 2255Z SSMI SWATH SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING. INTENSITY WAS THUS INCREASED TO 40KT.


ON THE FAR NORTH-NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO
HAS SLOWLY MOVED NORTHWARD IN THE LAST HOURS. TODAY, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN IN RELATION WITH
THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT WITH THE SYSTEM 05, DANILO SHOULD ACCELERATE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE LAST GUIDANCES, IT SEEMS NOW MORE
LIKELY THAT THE STORM DANILO WILL TAKE OVER WHILE THE SYSTEM 05 WILL
EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS IN THIS
CONTEXT THE FORECAST OF TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY REMAINS PARTICULARLY
UNCERTAIN. THIS PREDICTION IS LARGELY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
FRENCH, EUROPEAN AND ENGLISH MODEL THAT SEEMS TO ANALYZE BETTER THAN
THE AMERICAN THIS SITUATION.

FROM SUNDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A POWERFUL EQUATORIAL RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ONCE THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM 05 HAS DISAPPEARED, THE MOVEMENT
SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL
OPPOSING STEERING FLOWS : NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RELATED TO THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW RELATED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FROM WEDNESDAY, WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN
SID OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN ADDITION TO THE UNFAVORABLE INTERACTION
WITH SYSTEM 05, THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
SHEAR FROM SUNDAY COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER, AFTER THE
LIKELY DISAPPEARANCE OF SYSTEM 5, DANILO SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A RATHER
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW
SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE FORECATS WILL
STRONGLY DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RESULTING LOW AFTER THE
MERGING OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 020027
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 02/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 71.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM AROUND THE CENTER AND UP TO 200
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/02 AT 12 UTC:
10.9 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 5 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/03 AT 00 UTC:
11.9 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 5 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 210101200456
2021010118 08S DANILO 001 01 015 04 SATL 045
T000 112S 0721E 040 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 111S 0727E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 115S 0734E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 128S 0740E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 140S 0743E 050 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 157S 0741E 045 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 164S 0729E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 168S 0707E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.1S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.5S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 12.8S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.0S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.4S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.8S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 72.2E.
01JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
0820122906 104S 705E 20
0820122912 104S 718E 20
0820122918 109S 727E 20
0820123000 114S 728E 20
0820123006 117S 727E 20
0820123012 120S 726E 20
0820123018 121S 723E 25
0820123100 123S 721E 25
0820123106 121S 724E 25
0820123112 119S 725E 25
0820123118 120S 726E 25
0821010100 122S 726E 25
0821010106 120S 722E 30
0821010112 116S 720E 35
0821010118 112S 721E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.1S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.5S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 12.8S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.0S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.4S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.8S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 72.2E.
01JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
247 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH EXPANSIVE DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
011630Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. A 011632Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 35-40 KNOT WINDS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION, INITIAL INTENSITY AND INITIAL 34-KNOT WIND RADII WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND RANGE
FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST
(29C). HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 93S, APPROXIMATELY
550NM EAST-SOUTHEAST, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM 93S IS IMPINGING ON
THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF TC 08S, WHICH IS SHEARING CORE CONVECTION TO
THE WEST. IN GENERAL, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL
FUJIWHARA WITH INVEST 93S LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 01/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE STRIKE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC, WHICH SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY
SWATH SIMILAR TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND A LOW PROBABILITY SWATH
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, SIMILARLY, SHOWS
A BIFURCATION WITH HWRF, GFS, UK-MET AND COAMPS-TC(GFS) SHOWING A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WHILE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND UEMN INDICATE A SOUTHWARD THEN WESTWARD TRACK FORECAST. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE LATTER MODELS FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN-SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24-36; AFTER TAU
36, INVEST 93S WILL APPROACH WITHIN 200NM AND THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
FUJIWHARA (PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE) WITH TC 08S THE DOMINANT
SYSTEM; INVEST 93S WILL GET ABSORBED INTO TC 08S BY TAU 72; AND
AFTER TAU 72, THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO
ACCELERATE WESTWARD. THE COMPLEX TRACK SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED
THROUGH TAU 24 THEN WEAKENING AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT AND MERGE.
AFTER TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH WARM SST
(28-29C), IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH AND LOW VWS--THIS SHOULD ALLOW TC 08S TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z,
021500Z AND 022100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 010300).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 011957
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/6/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 01/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.9 S / 72.0 E
(DIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/01/2021 06 UTC: 10.7 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 30 NO: 85

24H: 02/01/2021 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 55 SO: 120 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 10 SO: 30 NO: 130

36H: 03/01/2021 06 UTC: 13.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 10 SO: 85 NO: 75

48H: 03/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SO: 100 NO: 65

60H: 04/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 45 SO: 150 NO: 65

72H: 04/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SO: 270 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65

120H: 06/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, DES PUISSANTES POUSSES CONVECTIVES
SE SONT MAITENUES A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE DE DANILO. LES
DIFFERENTES PASSES ASCAT DE LA SOIREE CONFIRMENT LA PRESENCE DE VENTS
DE FORCE COUP DE VENT. L'INTENSITE EST POUR L'INSTANT MAINTENUE A
35KT.

EN BORDURE LOITAINE NORD-NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DANILO
S'EST LENTEMENT DEPLACE VERS LE NORD-OUEST AUJOURD'HUI. AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU FLUX D'OUEST EQUATORIAL PUIS
EN LIEN AVEC L'EFFET FUJIWHARA AVEC LE SYSTEME 05, DANILO DEVRAIT
ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST. AU VU DES DERNIERS GUIDANCES, IL SEMBLE
MAINTENANT PLUS PROBABLE QUE LA TEMPETE DANILO PRENNE PAR LA SUITE LE
DESSUS TANDIS QUE LE SYSTEME 05 FINISSE PAS DISPARAITRE DANS SA
CIRCULATION. NEANMOINS DANS CE CONTEXTE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
ET D'INTENSITE RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. CETTE PREVISION SE
BASE EN GRANDE PARTIE SUR LE RUN DE 06Z DU MODELE EUROPEEN QUI
ANALYSAIT LE MIEUX LA SITUATION ACTUELLE, BIEN PLUS QUE LE MODELE
AMERICAIN.

A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, L'ARRIVEE D'UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE EQUATORIALE
PAR LE NORD-EST DEVRAIT ACCELERER LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE
SUD. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, UNE FOIS LA CIRCULATION DU
SYSTEME 05 DISPARU, LE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT NETTEMENT RALENTIR EN
RAISON DE LA PRESENCE DE PLUSIEURS FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRAIRES : FLUX
DE NORD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE ET FLUX D'EST EN
LIEN AVEC LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, ET LA
DISPARITION DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REPRENDRE
SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST SUD OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, EN PLUS DE L'INTERACTION DEFAVORABLE AVEC LE
SYSTEME 05, LA PRESENCE D'UNE FORTE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME. PAR LA SUITE, A L'ISSUE DE LA DISPARITION PROBABLE DU
SYSTEME 5, DANILO DEVRAIT BENEFICIER DE CONDITIONS PLUTOT FAVORABLE
AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UNE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT.
NEANMOINS, L'INTENSITE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE DEPENDRA FORTEMENT DE
L'INTENSITE DE LA CIRCULATION A L'ISSUE DE LA FUSION DES DEUX
CIRCULATIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 011957
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 72.0 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/02 06 UTC: 10.7 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 30 NW: 85

24H: 2021/01/02 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 10 SW: 30 NW: 130

36H: 2021/01/03 06 UTC: 13.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 10 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2021/01/03 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 100 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/04 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 45 SW: 150 NW: 65

72H: 2021/01/04 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65

120H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, POWERFUL AND VERY COLD CONVECTIVE BURSTS
HAPPENED NEAR THE INNER CORE OF DANILO. TONIGHT ASCAT SWATHS
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
35KT.

ON THE FAR NORTH-NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO
HAS SLOWLY MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TODAY. TOMORROW, UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY FLOW AND THEN IN RELATION WITH THE
FUJIWHARA EFFECT WITH THE SYSTEM 05, DANILO SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE LAST GUIDANCES, IT SEEMS NOW MORE LIKELY
THAT THE STORM DANILO WILL TAKE OVER LATER WHILE THE SYSTEM 05 WILL
EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR IN ITS CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS IN THIS CONTEXT
THE FORECAST OF TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY REMAINS PARTICULARLY
UNCERTAIN. THIS PREDICTION IS LARGELY BASED ON THE 06Z RUN OF THE
EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH ANALYZED THE CURRENT SITUATION FAR BETTER THAN
THE AMERICAN MODEL.

FROM SUNDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A POWERFUL EQUATORIAL RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ONCE THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM 05 HAS DISAPPEARED, THE MOVEMENT
SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL
OPPOSING STEERING FLOWS : NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RELATED TO THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW RELATED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FROM WEDNESDAY, WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN
SID OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN ADDITION TO THE UNFAVORABLE INTERACTION
WITH SYSTEM 05, THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
SHEAR FROM SUNDAY COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER, AFTER THE
LIKELY DISAPPEARANCE OF SYSTEM 5, DANILO SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A RATHER
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW
SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE FORECATS WILL
STRONGLY DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RESULTING LOW AFTER THE
MERGING OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 011833 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 01/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 72.0 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM AROUND THE CENTER AND UP TO 200
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/02 AT 06 UTC:
10.7 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/02 AT 18 UTC:
11.0 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 5 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 70 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 011820
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 01/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 72.0 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM AROUND THE CENTER AND UP TO 200
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/02 AT 06 UTC:
10.7 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/02 AT 18 UTC:
11.0 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 5 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 70 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>