Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAVANNAH-19
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAVANNAH-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Mauritius,
Exposed population 40 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 187 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (25 Mar 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 187 km/h 0.4 m 1728 mm 1.5
GFS Overall 187 km/h 0.4 m 1778 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

198 km/h

Up to 40 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mauritius43508
+
Mauritius43361 
Other countries147 
Tropical StormCocos (Keeling) Islands596 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 14 Mar 2019 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Mar 2019 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Mar 2019 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 14 Mar 2019 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 Mar 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 15 Mar 2019 06:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Mar 2019 12:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 15 Mar 2019 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 16 Mar 2019 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 16 Mar 2019 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 16 Mar 2019 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 16 Mar 2019 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 17 Mar 2019 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 17 Mar 2019 06:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 17 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 17 Mar 2019 18:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 18 Mar 2019 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 18 Mar 2019 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 18 Mar 2019 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 18 Mar 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 19 Mar 2019 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 19 Mar 2019 06:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 19 Mar 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 19 Mar 2019 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 20 Mar 2019 00:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 20 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 20 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 20 Mar 2019 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 21 Mar 2019 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 21 Mar 2019 06:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 21 Mar 2019 12:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 21 Mar 2019 18:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 22 Mar 2019 00:00 198 - - - - - - -
GREEN 34 22 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
ORANGE 35 22 Mar 2019 12:00 187 40 thousand -
- - - - Mauritius, Other countries




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMauritius43508
+
Mauritius43361 
Other countries147 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Cocos (Keeling) Islands1111
+
Indonesia515 
Cocos (Keeling) Islands596 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 14 Mar 2019 00:00 305 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 14 Mar 2019 06:00 295 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Mar 2019 12:00 300 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 14 Mar 2019 18:00 418 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 15 Mar 2019 00:00 360 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 15 Mar 2019 06:00 380 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 15 Mar 2019 12:00 391 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 15 Mar 2019 18:00 432 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 16 Mar 2019 00:00 475 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 16 Mar 2019 06:00 598 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 16 Mar 2019 12:00 650 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 16 Mar 2019 18:00 574 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 17 Mar 2019 00:00 685 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 17 Mar 2019 06:00 642 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 17 Mar 2019 12:00 711 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 17 Mar 2019 18:00 687 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 18 Mar 2019 00:00 443 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 18 Mar 2019 06:00 463 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 18 Mar 2019 12:00 259 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 18 Mar 2019 18:00 339 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 19 Mar 2019 00:00 360 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 19 Mar 2019 06:00 509 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 19 Mar 2019 12:00 480 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 19 Mar 2019 18:00 460 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 20 Mar 2019 00:00 661 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 20 Mar 2019 06:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 20 Mar 2019 12:00 935 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 20 Mar 2019 18:00 1049 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 21 Mar 2019 00:00 1127 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 21 Mar 2019 06:00 966 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 21 Mar 2019 12:00 1241 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 21 Mar 2019 18:00 1723 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 22 Mar 2019 00:00 1685 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 22 Mar 2019 06:00 1824 - - - - - - -
Blue 35 22 Mar 2019 12:00 1728 40 thousand -
- - - - Mauritius, Other countries




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in La Ferme, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 25 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Mar 2019 12:00 La Ferme Mauritius  0.4
25 Mar 2019 12:00 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.4
21 Mar 2019 11:15 West Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands  0.2
17 Mar 2019 15:00 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.2
17 Mar 2019 15:00 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.2

Calculation folder at this link