Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAVANNAH-19
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAVANNAH-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (22 Mar 10:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h 0.2 m 480 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 187 km/h 0.4 m 1778 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 14 Mar 2019 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Mar 2019 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Mar 2019 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 14 Mar 2019 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 Mar 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 15 Mar 2019 06:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Mar 2019 12:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 15 Mar 2019 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 16 Mar 2019 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 16 Mar 2019 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 16 Mar 2019 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 16 Mar 2019 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 17 Mar 2019 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 17 Mar 2019 06:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 17 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 17 Mar 2019 18:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 18 Mar 2019 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 18 Mar 2019 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 18 Mar 2019 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 18 Mar 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 19 Mar 2019 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 19 Mar 2019 06:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 19 Mar 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

-1 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 19 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 14 Mar 2019 00:00 305 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 14 Mar 2019 06:00 295 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Mar 2019 12:00 300 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 14 Mar 2019 18:00 418 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 15 Mar 2019 00:00 360 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 15 Mar 2019 06:00 380 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 15 Mar 2019 12:00 391 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 15 Mar 2019 18:00 432 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 16 Mar 2019 00:00 475 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 16 Mar 2019 06:00 598 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 16 Mar 2019 12:00 650 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 16 Mar 2019 18:00 574 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 17 Mar 2019 00:00 685 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 17 Mar 2019 06:00 642 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 17 Mar 2019 12:00 711 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 17 Mar 2019 18:00 687 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 18 Mar 2019 00:00 443 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 18 Mar 2019 06:00 463 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 18 Mar 2019 12:00 259 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 18 Mar 2019 18:00 339 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 19 Mar 2019 00:00 360 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 19 Mar 2019 06:00 509 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 19 Mar 2019 12:00 480 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in La Ferme, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 22 Mar 2019 10:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Mar 2019 10:45 La Ferme Mauritius  0.2
22 Mar 2019 10:45 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.2
21 Mar 2019 11:15 West Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands  0.2
19 Mar 2019 13:30 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.2
19 Mar 2019 13:30 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.2

Calculation folder at this link