Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAVANNAH-19
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAVANNAH-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (16 Mar 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 104 km/h 0.2 m 305 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 187 km/h 0.4 m 1778 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

198 km/h

Up to Few people affected can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormCocos (Keeling) Islands596 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 14 Mar 2019 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Cocos (Keeling) Islands




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 14 Mar 2019 00:00 305 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in La Ferme, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 16 Mar 2019 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Mar 2019 23:00 La Ferme Mauritius  0.2
16 Mar 2019 23:00 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.2
15 Mar 2019 11:30 West Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands  0.2
16 Mar 2019 14:15 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.1
16 Mar 2019 14:15 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.1

Calculation folder at this link