Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for KOPPU-15 in Philippines from 13 Oct 2015 00:00 UTC to 16 Oct 2015 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for KOPPU-15

in Philippines

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KOPPU-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Philippines
Exposed population	290 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.9 m (17 Oct 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	-- (Philippines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	213 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	259 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	2
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.6 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Oct 2015 00:00	213	---	No people	Philippines
2	13 Oct 2015 06:00	231	---	2.2 million	Philippines
3	13 Oct 2015 12:00	222	---	2.3 million	Philippines
4	13 Oct 2015 18:00	222	---	2.4 million	Philippines
5	14 Oct 2015 00:00	185	---	2.2 million	Philippines
6	14 Oct 2015 06:00	222	---	1.2 million	Philippines
7	14 Oct 2015 12:00	222	---	1.9 million	Philippines
8	14 Oct 2015 18:00	204	---	2.4 million	Philippines
9	15 Oct 2015 00:00	204	---	2.5 million	Philippines
10	15 Oct 2015 06:00	185	---	3.2 million	Philippines
11	15 Oct 2015 12:00	185	---	3.7 million	Philippines
12	15 Oct 2015 18:00	213	---	3.5 million	Philippines
13	16 Oct 2015 00:00	213	---	2.6 million	Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	13 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	15.6, 143.1
2	13 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.7, 140.1
3	13 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.8, 139
4	13 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.7, 137.8
5	14 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.6, 136.1
6	14 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.8, 135
7	14 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.7, 133.7
8	14 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.2, 132.8
9	15 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.3, 131.8
10	15 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.7, 130.2
11	15 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.8, 128.9
12	15 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	15.5, 128
13	16 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	37000 people	15.6, 127.3	Philippines
13	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	730000 people	15.7, 125.8	Philippines
13	17 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 3	204	<1000 people	18.1 million people	15.9, 124.2	Philippines
13	17 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 4	213	1 million people	32.8 million people	16, 122.8	Philippines
13	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 3	185	2.1 million people	31.7 million people	16.3, 121.7	Philippines
13	19 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 1	130	810000 people	7.4 million people	17.3, 121.2	Philippines
13	20 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	3.1 million people	18.3, 121.3	Philippines
13	21 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	19.6, 121.3	Philippines

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Philippines	Cagayan Valley
Philippines	Southern Tagalog
Philippines	Central Luzon
Philippines	Cordillera Administrative Region
Philippines	Ilocos

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Santiago	Cagayan Valley	Philippines	City	110000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Cauayan	CYZ	61	Civ.	Paved	No	5700
Bagabag		249	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Mrmp		117
Baler	BQA	9	Civ.	Paved	No	3900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Baler		Philippines
Abulog		Philippines
Casiguaran		Philippines

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Magat	Magat	1983

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.9m in Casiguran B, Philippines. This height is estimated for 17 Oct 2015 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (141 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 16 Oct 2015 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	Casiguran B	Philippines	0.9
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	Dinipan	Philippines	0.9
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	Casiguran	Philippines	0.9
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	Pasaruboy	Philippines	0.9
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	Casiguran	Philippines	0.7
	17 Oct 2015 18:00	Diniyog	Philippines	0.5
	17 Oct 2015 18:00	Tarigtig Pt	Philippines	0.5
	17 Oct 2015 23:00	Debutunan Pt	Philippines	0.4
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Bugallon	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Manila	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Carael	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Bateng	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Alacan	Philippines	0.3
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Pequit	Philippines	0.3
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Pabanong	Philippines	0.3
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Hinabangan	Philippines	0.3
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Wright	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Baloboc	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Canaoalan	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Dagupan	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Meycauayan	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Tanza	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Tinajeros	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Caloocan	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Binmale	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Pamarauan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Imus	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Debutunan	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Bangon	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Maniboc	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 21:00	Mualbual	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	San Andres	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Cavite	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 19:00	Alilinu	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 19:00	Catuguran	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Lingayen	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Labangan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Damaloguen	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Tanza	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Binakayan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Tehero	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Narombacan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Amaya	Philippines	0.2
	17 Oct 2015 18:00	Baler	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 00:00	Taccuen	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 00:00	San Juan	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 00:00	Fugu	Philippines	0.2
	16 Oct 2015 13:00	Bikal	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 19:00	Bagacay	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 19:00	Guintampilan	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Tatabunan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Capantolan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Mangas	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	General Trias	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 00:00	Naguilian	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 00:00	Abulug	Philippines	0.2
	16 Oct 2015 13:00	Bagas	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Macalonud	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Catbalogan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Tondol	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Nabaul	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Aringay	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Caba	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	San Cornelio	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Balanga	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Pilar	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Orion	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Limay	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Abucay	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Samal	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Hermosa	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Orani	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Dolaoan	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 20:00	Bisagu	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 20:00	Aparri	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 00:00	Bangan	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 20:00	Linao	Philippines	0.2
	16 Oct 2015 23:00	Panganiban	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Barceloneta	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Pilar	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 19:00	Babatngon	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 13:00	Pagsanjan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 19:00	Balaton	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 16:00	Dinapigui	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Panasgasan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Agoo	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 21:00	Miguel	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 19:00	San Vicente	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 18:00	Cavayan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 18:00	Labigan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 18:00	Malbug	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Lucap	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Santiago	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 19:00	Bitaogan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 19:00	Calolbon	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 13:00	Garchitorena	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Naic	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Cabcaben	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Maragondon	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 22:00	Buenavista	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Mandao	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 20:00	Guiom	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Lucero	Philippines	0.1
	20 Oct 2015 00:00	Cabuluan	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 12:00	Polillo	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 16:00	Guijalo	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 16:00	Pandanan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 13:00	Colongcogong	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 14:00	Sialat	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 16:00	Manambrag	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 16:00	Gitoma	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 21:00	Pandan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Culaba	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Tabojab	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Caibiran	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Daram	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Igot	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Bauang	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Baccuit	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Palintocang	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 21:00	Borongan	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 17:00	Punta	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Santa Margarita	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Bantayan	Philippines	0.1
	20 Oct 2015 00:00	Namuac	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 16:00	Caramoan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 14:00	San Vicente	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 13:00	Silanga	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Capitun-an	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Paet	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Rizal	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 13:00	Bahay	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 13:00	Mapid	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 19:00	Adiagnao	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Barana	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 19:00	Tandoc	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 17:00	Divilican	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Alaminos	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 14:00	Calbayog	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Madridejos	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Pamaoran	Philippines	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.