Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for KOPPU-15 in Philippines from 13 Oct 2015 00:00 UTC to 15 Oct 2015 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for KOPPU-15

in Philippines

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KOPPU-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Philippines
Exposed population	290 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (18 Oct 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	-- (Philippines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	204 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	259 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	2
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.5 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Oct 2015 00:00	213	---	No people	Philippines
2	13 Oct 2015 06:00	231	---	2.2 million	Philippines
3	13 Oct 2015 12:00	222	---	2.3 million	Philippines
4	13 Oct 2015 18:00	222	---	2.4 million	Philippines
5	14 Oct 2015 00:00	185	---	2.2 million	Philippines
6	14 Oct 2015 06:00	222	---	1.2 million	Philippines
7	14 Oct 2015 12:00	222	---	1.9 million	Philippines
8	14 Oct 2015 18:00	204	---	2.4 million	Philippines
9	15 Oct 2015 00:00	204	---	2.5 million	Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	13 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	15.6, 143.1
2	13 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.7, 140.1
3	13 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.8, 139
4	13 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.7, 137.8
5	14 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.6, 136.1
6	14 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.8, 135
7	14 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.7, 133.7
8	14 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.2, 132.8
9	15 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.3, 131.8
9	15 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.5, 129.7
9	16 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.7, 127.9
9	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	16, 126.4	Philippines
9	17 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	2.6 million people	16.2, 125	Philippines
9	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 3	204	570000 people	4.6 million people	16.6, 123.6	Philippines
9	19 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 2	157	2.5 million people	6.8 million people	17.1, 122.3	Philippines
9	20 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	17.8, 121.1	Philippines

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Philippines	Cagayan Valley
Philippines	Southern Tagalog
Philippines	Cordillera Administrative Region
Philippines	Ilocos

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Tuguegarao	Cagayan Valley	Philippines	City	110000 people
Cabagan	Cagayan Valley	Philippines	City	25000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Cauayan	CYZ	61	Civ.	Paved	No	5700
Palanan		50	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Tuguegarao	TUG	21	Civ.	Paved	No	5900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Palanan		Philippines

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Lapusan, Philippines. This height is estimated for 18 Oct 2015 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (40 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 15 Oct 2015 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Oct 2015 22:00	Lapusan	Philippines	0.4
	19 Oct 2015 00:00	Divilican	Philippines	0.3
	16 Oct 2015 05:00	Pequit	Philippines	0.2
	16 Oct 2015 05:00	Pabanong	Philippines	0.2
	16 Oct 2015 05:00	Hinabangan	Philippines	0.2
	16 Oct 2015 05:00	Wright	Philippines	0.2
	16 Oct 2015 05:00	Bangon	Philippines	0.2
	16 Oct 2015 04:00	Mualbual	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 00:00	Alilinu	Philippines	0.2
	16 Oct 2015 19:00	Bikal	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 00:00	Punta	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 03:00	San Andres	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 19:00	Bagas	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 20:00	Dinapigui	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 03:00	Tatabunan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 03:00	Narombacan	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 03:00	Pandan	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 10:00	Panganiban	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 18:00	Diniyog	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 04:00	Macalonud	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 05:00	Catbalogan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 03:00	Guintampilan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 03:00	Bagacay	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 00:00	Bisagu	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 00:00	Aparri	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 05:00	Babatngon	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 00:00	Pagsanjan	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 07:00	Guiom	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 00:00	Balza	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 00:00	Linao	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 20:00	Miguel	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 13:00	Labigan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 14:00	Binmale	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 14:00	Canaoalan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 14:00	Carael	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 14:00	Dagupan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 14:00	Bateng	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 13:00	Malbug	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Cavite	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 08:00	Borongan	Philippines	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.