Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000957
Name CHENESO-23
From - To 18 Jan - 29 Jan
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h Category 2
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (24 Jan 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
WMO-RSMC La Réunion 106 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS JTWC 83 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
GFS 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5
ECMWF 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Madagascar - Tropical Storm CHENESO (ECHO 19 Jan 2023)Thu, 19 Jan 2023 11:07

  • Tropical Storm CHENESO formed over south-western Indian Ocean and made landfall north of Antalaha around 10:45 a.m. local time on 19 January. It is moving southwest at 15 km/h. The average wind is estimated at 90 km/h with gusts of 120 km/h.
  • Despite the weakening of the system, the gusts of winds remain dangerous and are likely to damage or destroy vulnerable homes and infrastructure, especially for the Sava and Analanjirofo regions for the next 10 hours.
  • The alert level remains unchanged. Red alerts have been issued for Sava, Dana, and Analanjirofo Regions in northern Madagascar, as heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected to affect this area on 19-20 January. The main concern is a possible severity of floods in all the cities and areas vulnerable to floods, especially those located in the north-east, in the highland and in the eastern coasts.    
  • BNGRC and UN OCHA have asked all the rapid assessment teams to be on stand-by for any eventual deployment. 
Madagascar - Tropical storm CHENESO, update (ECHO 20 Jan 2023)Fri, 20 Jan 2023 11:43

  • Tropical Storm CHENESO made landfall on 19 January in the north of Antalaha, in Sava Region, on the north-eastern coast of Madagascar, with maximum sustained winds up to 106 km/h.
  • According to the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), initial data collected on the 19 January show: 1 death (Sava region), 1 missing person (Diana region), 2,224 disaster victims, i.e. 738 households, spread over 2 regions; 214 people displaced preventively in 2 accommodation sites. Data for Diana and Sava regions are not yet available.
  • CHENESO is forecast to move south-west across central-western Madagascar, as a Tropical Depression, and reach the Mozambique Channel in the early morning of 23 January. 
  • Authorities are worried about flash floods, landslides, strong winds and dangerous sea movements. Heavy rains are expected to continue throughout the end of the week along the central-eastern coast and the north-west region.
  • DG ECHO continues to monitor the situation.
CHENESO-23 - EC/ECHO daily mapFri, 20 Jan 2023 17:56

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Madagascar - Tropical Storm CHENESO, update (ECHO 23 Jan 2023)Mon, 23 Jan 2023 11:37

  • Tropical Storm CHENESO affecting northern and central Madagascar on 19-23 January, has led to casualties and damage.
  • The National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), reports 3 deaths, 6 missing, about 7,240 individuals displaced and 13,180 people affected. Nearly 4,000 houses and 85 classrooms have been damaged or destroyed, while a number of settlements are isolated, as several road sections have been damaged. Disturbed weather will continue at least until the middle of this week. The sustained heavy rains are likely to generate widespread flooding and landslides.
  • BNGRC is leading the response coordination. Local authorities are providing assistance to cover basic needs of displaced population. Humanitarian partners remain on standby to support the Government-led response if required.
  • The tropical storm is preparing to come out to sea today. For the next 3 days, its potential for re-intensification into a tropical storm is significant. 
Madagascar - Tropical storm CHENESO, update (ECHO 24 Jan 2023)Tue, 24 Jan 2023 10:24

  • After moving across northern and central-western Madagascar, CHENESO has reached the Mozambique Channel. On 24 January at 7.00 UTC, its center was located on the sea, about 180 km west of coastal Morondava City (Menabe Region, central-western Madagascar, with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h.
  • To date, the reported humanitarian impact caused by the passage of CHENESO includes three fatalities, 14 missing people and 17,129 affected people across 9 regions as reported by the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC). The number of displaced people has increased to 8,334 material damage has been reported to 5,600 flooded houses.
  • However, heavy and persistent rainfall continue across Madagascar. The national Met-Service had issued a red Flood Watch for several river basins in the Northwest and Southeast of the country.
  • Over the next three days, CHENESO is expected to intensify, while moving south over the Mozambique Channel, not far from the Malagasy coast.
Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone CHENESO, update (ECHO 25 Jan 2023)Wed, 25 Jan 2023 10:52

  • The humanitarian impact continues to increase over northern and central Madagascar, due to the passage of CHENESO as a tropical storm on 19-23 January. 
  • According to the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), seven people have died and thirteen others are missing. Approximately 14,400 individuals have been temporarily displaced to 55 accommodation sites, while up to 35,000 people have been affected.
  • Widespread damage has been reported to nearly 10,570 houses, and about 100 classrooms, disrupting access to education for a number of students. Several communities in northern and central Madagascar have been isolated, as roads have been damaged by floods or landslides. 
  • Tropical cyclone CHENESO continues to strengthen, and on 25 January at 1.00 UTC, its centre was located on the Mozambique Channel, about 135 km west of coastal Morondava City (Menabe Region, central-western Madagascar). Over the next three days, CHENESO is expected to intensify, while moving south over the Mozambique Channel, not far from the Malagasy coast.
  • On 25-26 January, light to moderate rainfall is expected over north-western, central-western, and south-eastern Madagascar. 
CHENESO-23 - JRC emergency reportWed, 25 Jan 2023 10:48

A new JRC Emergency report is now available
Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone CHENESO, update (ECHO 26 Jan 2023)Thu, 26 Jan 2023 11:49

  • At least eight people died, and ten others are missing after the passage of Tropical Cyclone CHENESO on 19-23 January, as reported by the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC). The number of temporarily displaced people increased to 60,603. Some 47,000 people are affected, about 13,000 houses and some 100 classrooms are damaged. Search and rescue operationsv could be hindered by the disruption of several roads, which has isolated several communities.
  • The Copernicus Emergency Management System was activated in rapid mapping mode () on 25 January to support damage assessment.
  • Tropical Cyclone CHENESO remains nearly stationary in the Mozambique Channel. On 26 January at 7.00 UTC its center was located about 145 km west of coastal Morondava City, with maximum sustained winds of 137 km/h. On 26 January, CHENESO should start moving south-westward in the Mozambique Channel. 
  • On 26-27 January, heavy rainfall is expected over central-western Madagascar with light to moderate rainfall over the rest of the Island. Risk of flooding and landslides is of great concern.
Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone CHENESO, update (ECHO 27 Jan 2023)Fri, 27 Jan 2023 10:44

  • Madagascar still is impacted by the passage of CHENESO as a tropical storm on 19-23 January, resulting in at least 16 fatalities, and 19 missing people, as reported by the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC).
  • The number of temporarily displaced people stands at 26,000 individuals, while about 55,000 people have been affected, as material damage includes 13,350 houses, 18 medical centres, and more than 100 classrooms. Many settlements continue to be isolated. 
  • The Copernicus Emergency Management System was activated in rapid mapping mode () on 25 January and 12 maps have been produced so far.
  • The centre of tropical storm CHENESO was located on 27 January at 7.00 UTC on the Mozambique Channel, about 160 km of south-western Madagascar. CHENESO is expected to increase to a tropical cyclone, leaving the Mozambique Channel on the night of 28 January.
  • On 27-28 January, moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast over most of Madagascar, while red warnings for strong winds are in effect for the central western and southern coast.
CHENESO-23 - EC/ECHO daily mapFri, 27 Jan 2023 15:09

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone CHENESO, update (ECHO 30 Jan 2023)Mon, 30 Jan 2023 11:27

  • The humanitarian impact in northern and central Madagascar continues to increase after the island was affected by the passage of tropical cyclone CHENESO on 19-23 January.
  • According to the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), 27 people have died and 21 others are reportedly missing. Nearly 40,000 individuals remain displaced across seven regions of Madagascar, while approximately 85,000 persons have been affected. 
  • Material damage caused by floods, strong winds, and landslides includes 27,000 houses, 10 health centres, and about 150 schools. The flyover assessment of the North West area is currently underway. 
  • The Copernicus Emergency Management System was activated in rapid mapping mode () on 25 January to provide a damage assessment of the affected areas and 33 maps have been produced so far.
  • On 30-31 January, light rainfall is forecast over eastern Madagascar.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2023. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (39), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),