Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PILAR-23
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 060242
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

After the low- and mid-level centers of Pilar decoupled this
morning, the system has failed to produce any deep convection near
the center. Although the system is still located over warm SSTs,
dry mid-level air and strong mid-level shear is likely to prevent
organized deep convection from returning. Therefore, Pilar has
become a post-tropical remnant low. The initial wind speed has been
lowered to 30 kt, based on a blend of the available satellite
estimates, but this could be generous. The system could still
produce a few bursts of deep convection during the next day or so,
but it should continue to gradually spin down. The global model
guidance indicates that the circulation will degenerate into a
trough of low pressure within 2-3 days, if not sooner.

They cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next day or two as the low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the
system weakens. Since the system has become vertically shallow, the
NHC track is along the left or south side of the guidance envelop
between the shallow Trajectory and Beta model (TABS), and the GFS
and UKMET ensemble means.

This is the last NHC advisory on Pilar. Additional information
on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 10.7N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 06/1200Z 11.2N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0000Z 11.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 13.9N 119.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 060241
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0300 UTC MON NOV 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 114.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 114.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.2N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 11.9N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.9N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 114.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PILAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 060241
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

...PILAR DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 114.8W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar
was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 114.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph
(13 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the
remnant low is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Pilar. Additional information on the remnant low can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 052033
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
200 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

Just after the issuance of the previous advisory, Pilar's center
popped out from beneath the convective overcast and is now located
at least 150 n mi to the southwest of an ongoing cluster of deep
convection. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are now
down to 2.0/30 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, and objective
estimates have fallen to between 35-40 kt. Based on these data,
Pilar's initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Strengthening
westerly to southwesterly shear is already taking its toll on
Pilar, and atmospheric conditions are only expected to become more
hostile over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is near
the low end of the guidance, most closely following the SHIPS,
LGEM, and GFS solutions, and shows Pilar becoming a remnant low by
36 hours. Since the storm remains over warm waters around 29
degrees Celsius, the forecast allows for the possibility of
convective redevelopment near the center tonight or on Monday. But
if this does not occur, Pilar could become post-tropical as early
as tonight. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in about 3
days.

With the center becoming more apparent earlier this morning, it's
clear that a westward motion has continued (now estimated to be
275/9 kt). The dynamical models are not handling Pilar's current
motion well at all since nearly all of them show an immediate
northwestward turn, and as a result, the NHC track forecast is
along the left side of the guidance envelope and leans toward the
shallow Trajectory and Beta model (TABS), especially in the short
term. This new prediction is significantly west of the previous
forecast due to the adjusted initial position, and accounting for
Pilar's recent motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 10.6N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 11.1N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 11.7N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 12.5N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 13.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z 15.0N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 052032
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
2100 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.1N 115.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.7N 116.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.5N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.7N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 052032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
200 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

...PILAR UNRAVELING...
...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 114.3W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 114.3 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Monday,
with a northwestward motion continuing through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast. Pilar could
degenerate into a remnant low as early as tonight or on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 051608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.11.2023

TROPICAL STORM PILAR ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.11.2023 10.2N 112.7W WEAK
00UTC 06.11.2023 10.8N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2023 11.4N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2023 12.3N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2023 13.6N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051608


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 051436
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
800 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

Pilar's cloud pattern has degraded a bit this morning, and a recent
SSMIS microwave image shows that mid-level circulation and deep
convection have decoupled to the northeast of the low-level center.
Still, the initial intensity remains 45 kt, possibly generously,
based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers and objective satellite
estimates. Although deep-layer shear is diagnosed in the SHIPS
model as being low, global model analyses suggest that stronger
mid-level southwesterly shear is occurring beneath the outflow
level. Therefore, some gradual weakening is likely over the next
day or so. After 24 hours, deeper-layer shear begins to increase to
the east of a trough, which should cause Pilar to weaken faster
through midweek. The cyclone is forecast to lose organized
convection and degenerate into a remnant low in about 2 days, and
then dissipate into a trough by day 4.

Pilar has slowed down and turned west-northwestward with an initial
motion of 285/7 kt in response to a mid-level trough extending
southwest of the Baja California peninsula. The storm is forecast
to turn toward the northwest in about 24 hours as it approaches the
trough, and continue on that heading until it dissipates in about 4
days. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous prediction
and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 10.8N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 11.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 12.1N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.1N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 14.6N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z 16.0N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 051436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1500 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 112.8W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 112.8W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.1N 114.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.1N 115.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.6N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.0N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.3N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 112.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 051436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
800 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

...PILAR TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 112.8W
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 112.8 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northwestward
motion is forecast to begin early Monday and continue through
midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Pilar
is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050838
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
200 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

Pilar hasn't changed much in in organization over the past several
hours. The storm continues to have some convective banding
features along with a somewhat ragged-looking Central Dense
Overcast. Cloud tops continue to be quite cold, at -70 deg C or
colder, and the upper-level outflow pattern also remains fairly
well defined. The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt in
agreement with subjective Dvorak values from TAFB and SAB, as well
as objective AI-ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. ASCAT scatterometer
data from a few hours ago suggest that this estimate may be a bit
generous, since that instrument showed somewhat lower wind speeds.
However it is assumed that there was some undersampling by ASCAT of
the maximum winds in this small tropical cyclone.

Vertical wind shear over the cyclone is expected to remain fairly
low today, and this along with a warm ocean could allow for a
little more short-term strengthening. In 24 hours and beyond,
however, the dynamical guidance shows a substantial increase in
shear as Pilar begins to encounter strong southwesterly flow
associated with a broad upper-level trough to its northwest. This
increased shear should cause weakening, and the system is
likely to be reduced to a remnant low pressure area in 2 to 3
days, or possibly sooner. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and is also close to the model
consensus.

A westward motion continues for now, at a slower forward speed of
around 10 kt. Over the next day or so, the mid-level ridge to the
north of Pilar is forecast to weaken due to the influence of a low
just to the west of the Baja California peninsula. As a result,
the system is likely to turn west-northwestward to northwestward
during the next 24 hours or so. The official forecast track is
somewhat to the right of the previous NHC prediction, but is still
near the southern side of the guidance suite. This is fairly close
to the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus
tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 10.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 11.0N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 11.6N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 12.5N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 13.8N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 15.2N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 16.5N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050836
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
200 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

...PILAR MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 112.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 112.1 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower west-
northwestward motion is expected to begin later this morning, and a
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but gradual
weakening is expected to begin tonight and continue through early
next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 050835
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0900 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 112.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 112.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.0N 113.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.6N 114.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.5N 115.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.8N 116.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.2N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.5N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 112.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050232
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
900 PM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

Pilar has become a little better organized this evening. There has
been an overall increase in banding and a couple of microwave
passes around 0000 UTC revealed a little better inner core
structure. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB were a
unanimous T3.0 (45 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMMS range
from 41 to 53 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial
wind speed has been increased to 45 kt for this advisory.

Low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs along the path of Pilar could
allow for some additional strengthening overnight. Most of the
intensity guidance indeed calls for some modest strengthening, and
the official forecast follow suit. By late Sunday, however,
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely to put an
end to any further intensification. A more significant increase in
southwesterly shear is predicted Sunday night and Monday, and
steady weakening is anticipated during that time. The small
tropical cyclone is likely to succumb to these unfavorable
conditions, and Pilar is forecast to become a remnant low in 2-3
days, and dissipate shortly thereafter.

Pilar is still moving westward, but at a slightly slower forward
speed of 12 kt. A turn to the west-northwest and then northwest
with a further reduction in forward speed is expected during the
next 24-36 hours as a mid-level ridge to the north of Pilar weakens.
There are still some differences in the dynamical guidance on how
vertically deep Pilar will remain, which affects how much latitude
the storm gains. Since the NHC forecast calls for weakening to
commence by late tomorrow, the NHC track forecast favors the
southern side of the guidance. The official forecast is in best
agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid, which is a little
south of the simple, multi-model consensus track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 10.5N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 10.8N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 11.5N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 12.3N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 13.2N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 14.2N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z 15.3N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
900 PM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

...PILAR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 111.6W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 111.6 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower west-
northwestward motion is expected to begin later tonight and continue
through Sunday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Sunday
night or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is
possible tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by late
Sunday and continue through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 050231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0300 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 111.6W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 111.6W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.8N 113.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.5N 114.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.2N 116.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.2N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.3N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 111.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 042034
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
300 PM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

Pilar continues to exhibit a central dense overcast pattern, and
outer banding features have become a little better defined during
the past several hours. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB have increased to 3.0/45 kt. However, an ASCAT-B pass from a
few hours ago showed peak winds around 35 kt over a small area in
the northwestern quadrant. Based on a compromise of these data, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt, but it is possible that Pilar
could be a little stronger.

The environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for
strengthening during the next day or so, and the models generally
show a little increase in Pilar's winds during that time. By early
Monday, however, the storm will be moving into an area of strong
vertical wind shear and notably drier air. These factors should
result in a weakening trend, and Pilar will likely become a remnant
low late Monday or early Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is a
touch higher than the previous one in the short term, and lies near
the middle of the guidance envelope.

Pilar is moving westward at 14 kt on the southwest side of a
mid-level ridge. A turn to the west-northwest and then the
northwest with a significant decrease in forward speed are forecast
as the ridge breaks down. Although the models generally agree on
the large-scale pattern, there are significant differences on how
vertically deep Pilar will be, which affects how much latitude the
storm gains. The GFS remains the model on the far right side while
the ECMWF is on the far left side of the guidance. Since Pilar is
expected to weaken early next week, the NHC track forecast continues
to favor the left side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement
with the ECMWF and HCCA models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 10.4N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 10.6N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 11.1N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 11.8N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 12.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 14.6N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 042033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
300 PM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

...PILAR HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 110.5W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 110.5 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A slower forward
motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is forecast early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day or so.
Steady weakening is forecast early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 042033
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
2100 UTC SAT NOV 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 110.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 110.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.1N 113.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.7N 116.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.6N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 041608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.11.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.8N 86.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.11.2023 0 9.8N 86.4W 1006 19
0000UTC 05.11.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM PILAR ANALYSED POSITION : 9.7N 108.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.11.2023 0 9.7N 108.7W 1003 31
0000UTC 05.11.2023 12 9.7N 111.0W 1002 30
1200UTC 05.11.2023 24 9.7N 112.9W 1003 25
0000UTC 06.11.2023 36 10.3N 114.0W 1002 26
1200UTC 06.11.2023 48 11.4N 114.9W 1003 24
0000UTC 07.11.2023 60 12.8N 116.3W 1003 24
1200UTC 07.11.2023 72 13.8N 117.9W 1004 22
0000UTC 08.11.2023 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041608


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 041451
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
900 AM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

Pilar's satellite presentation consists of a ragged cloud pattern
with a few new bursts of deep convection near surface center. The
initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory and is based
on a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB, and a recent SATCON analysis from UW-CIMSS.

Dry, stable marine-layer mid-level air continues to prevent Pilar
from maintaining organized deep convection, and this negative
atmospheric contribution is expected to linger during the next
several days. Additionally, southwesterly shear is forecast to
increase during the next 36 hours, and this should induce a
weakening trend by Monday. Small intensity fluctuations are
still possible through the weekend, although the official forecast
does not explicitly indicate it. The intensity forecast follows the
various consensus intensity aids closely and indicates that Pilar
will become a remnant low in 60 hours and open up into a trough in
4 days or less.

Pilar's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt,
and is being steered by a subtropical ridge located to the north.
Global and regional models suggest that the above-mentioned
mid-tropospheric ridge will weaken near the Baja California
peninsula during the next day or so. This change in the synoptic
steering pattern should cause a reduction in the cyclone's forward
speed while gradually turning Pilar west-northwestward and
northwestward by Monday. There remains an increase in
across-track spread in the global models, specifically with the GFS
lying to the far right side of the guidance envelope beyond 36
hours, and the ECMWF on the far left side. The official forecast is
nudged toward the left side of the guidance suite and is close to
the NOAA HFIP HCCA corrected consensus model and the previous
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 10.2N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 10.3N 110.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 10.7N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 11.3N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 12.0N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 12.9N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 13.9N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 041450
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1500 UTC SAT NOV 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 109.1W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 109.1W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.3N 110.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.7N 112.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.3N 114.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.9N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.9N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 041451
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
900 AM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

...PILAR HEADING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...
...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 109.1W
ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 109.1 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A slower forward
motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is forecast early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the day or so.
Steady weakening is forecast early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 040836
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
300 AM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

Deep convection has continued to pulse near and to the east of the
center of Pilar overnight. There were no complete ASCAT passes over
the storm tonight, but a partial ASCAT-C pass suggests the strongest
winds remain confined to the northern semicircle. The various
satellite intensity estimates range from 30-44 kt, and the initial
intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Despite moving over warm waters in a weak to moderate westerly shear
environment, the small storm has struggled to sustain convection at
times during the past couple of days due to the negative effects of
dry air. In the near term, GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery
suggest this trend could continue. The upper-level environment is
forecast to become more diffluent in 24-36 h, and the GFS along with
some of the regional models show strengthening could occur during
this period. However, there are also indications that mid-level
shear will increase around the same time, which would likely result
in additional bouts of dry air intrusions. While small intensity
fluctuations seem possible during the next couple of days, the NHC
forecast follows the corrected consensus (HCCA) aid and shows no
change in strength through the weekend. Weakening is expected
beginning Monday as Pilar moves into a drier and strongly sheared
environment. Similar to the previous prediction, this forecast shows
degeneration into a remnant low by 72 h and dissipation by day 5.

A mid-level ridge to the north of Pilar is steering the storm
quickly westward (265 degrees/14 kt). This steering ridge is
forecast to become eroded by a mid-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula over the weekend. This should cause Pilar to
gradually slow down and gain some latitude, with a turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest forecast early next week. There is
large spread in the track guidance envelope beyond 24 h, with the
differences likely related to the strength and vertical depth of the
cyclone. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one and remains close to HCCA, which falls between the stronger
(weaker) models on the right (left) side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 9.8N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 9.8N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 10.1N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 10.6N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 11.3N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 11.9N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 12.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 040834
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0900 UTC SAT NOV 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 107.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 107.3W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 9.8N 109.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.1N 111.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 10.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.3N 115.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.7N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 040834
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
300 AM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

...PILAR MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 107.3W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 107.3 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A slower motion
toward the west-northwest or northwest is forecast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of
days. Steady weakening is forecast early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 040240
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
900 PM MDT Fri Nov 03 2023

Pilar is not much to look at tonight. The deep convective activity
near the center has been on a downward swing, though there are a few
convective clusters starting to redevelop close to the estimated
low-level center. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass on the 37-GHz
channel also suggested that, compared to yesterday, the low-level
banding features have become more diffuse. Satellite intensity
estimates continue to range from 30 to 40 kt, and given the earlier
scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt, though
this may be generous.

Small Pilar seems to be struggling in its current environment, which
is honestly not all that unfavorable, with light to moderate
westerly vertical wind shear, and plenty warm sea-surface
temperatures. However, the proximity of nearby dry air surrounding
the storm has continued to periodically snuff out its convection,
preventing much organization. Thus, the forecast continues to show
the storm maintaining its current intensity, assuming dry air will
continue to keep the small cyclone in check. After 36 h, shear
begins to increase further, and weakening after that point is
forecasted. The latest NHC intensity forecast show Pilar weakening
into a remnant low by 72 h with dissipation by 120 h, but both of
these statuses could occur sooner than forecast, as suggested by the
ECMWF model.

Pilar continues to move south of due west, with an initial motion of
260/15 kt. A well-established mid-level ridge located north of the
storm should continue to steer the tropical cyclone westward for the
next few days, though with gradual slowing of its forward motion as
the ridge begins to become eroded by a deep-layer trough located
near the Baja California Peninsula. This should ultimately result in
a bit more poleward motion in Pilar into early next week. Once
again, there is a large amount of track spread, mostly related to
how vertically deep Pilar remains in the model guidance. The GFS
continues to be steadfast in maintaining Pilar as a vertically deep
cyclone, and turns the system more northwestward as the trough
weakness develops. The ECWMF (and the vast majority of its
ensembles) ultimately decouple its mid-level circulation from the
low-level one, resulting in a faster and more westward track. The
NHC track forecast favors the latter scenario, which also is closer
to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. This forecast is just a touch
further south and west compared to the prior one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 9.9N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 9.7N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 9.9N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 10.5N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 11.1N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 11.8N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 12.4N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z 14.0N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 040235
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
900 PM MDT Fri Nov 03 2023

...PUNY PILAR STRUGGLING IN THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 106.2W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 106.2 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a gradual slowdown is expected during the next couple of
days. By early next week, a slower west-northwestward motion is
forecast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 040233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0300 UTC SAT NOV 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 106.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 106.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 9.7N 108.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 9.9N 111.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.1N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.8N 116.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.4N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 14.0N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 106.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 032034
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

Deep convection associated with Pilar continues to pulse, and it
still lacks banding features. The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, and a recent ASCAT pass showed
peak winds in the 35-40 kt range. Based on all of these data, the
initial intensity is nudged downward to 40 kt. Pilar remains a
very compact storm and is only producing a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds north of the center.

The storm is moving quickly westward at about 17 kt. Mid-level
ridging to the north of the storm should keep Pilar on a westward
path during the next couple of days. After that time, a turn to the
west-northwest or northwest is predicted as the ridge breaks down.
There is quite a bit of spread in the models with the GFS on the far
right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the far left
side. The NHC track forecast leans closer to the left side of the
guidance since Pilar is expected to be a weakening system and will
more likely move in the low-level flow.

Pilar will likely fluctuate in strength during the next couple of
days while it remains in marginal environmental conditions. After
that time, however, an increase in southerly vertical wind shear
and intrusions of dry air should cause a weakening trend. Pilar is
now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 9.9N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 10.0N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 10.2N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 10.8N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 11.4N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 12.1N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 13.8N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 15.5N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 032033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

...PILAR WEAKENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 104.6W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 104.6 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion is expected during the next couple of days. By early next
week, a slower west-northwestward motion is forecast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 032032
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
2100 UTC FRI NOV 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 104.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 104.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 9.9N 106.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.0N 109.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 10.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.1N 116.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 13.8N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 15.5N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 031447
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

Deep convection has re-developed over Pilar this morning. Multiple
microwave images depict that the low-level center is poorly
organized. This disruption in organization is likely due to
westerly shear. The pulsing nature of the convective structure of
Pilar continues to impact satellite intensity estimates, with those
estimates slightly decreased for this cycle. The initial intensity
leans toward the Dvorak CI-numbers, which was a 3.0 from TAFB. With
convection bursting once again and the Dvorak CI values, this
supports keeping the initial intensity steady at 45 kt.

Pilar is moving swiftly west-southwestward (255/18 kt), steered by a
mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the system. A
mid-level trough is forecast to approach the Baja California
peninsula this weekend, which will cause the ridge to weaken, and
Pilar should gradually slow down and turn to the west and
west-northwest through early next week. The track guidance remains
in fairly good agreement, with the main difference being the forward
speed of Pilar. The NHC forecast is slightly faster than the
previous, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids.

The convective structure of Pilar continues to fluctuate, with a
pulsing convective burst from time-to-time. Given the small size of
Pilar, intensity fluctuations are possible throughout the forecast
period as the system will be more susceptible within varying
environmental conditions. The intensity forecast shows very little
change in the intensity through the weekend. In about 3 days, as
Pilar moves northwestward, the system is expected to encounter
strong southwesterly shear and will weaken. Global models are in
fairly good agreement that Pilar will become a remnant low by the
end of the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 10.2N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 9.9N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 9.8N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 10.0N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 10.4N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 11.1N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 11.8N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 14.9N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 031446
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

...PILAR MOVING SWIFTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 103.0W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 103.0 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west-southwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn
toward the west and a decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next couple of days. A slower west-northwestward motion is
forecast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 031446
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1500 UTC FRI NOV 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 103.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 103.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 102.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 9.9N 105.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 9.8N 108.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.4N 113.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.1N 115.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.8N 116.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 103.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY




Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 030836
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

Deep convection over the center of Pilar has collapsed this morning.
The low-level circulation of the compact storm is exposed, and only
small areas of convective activity are noted well away from the
center. These changes are likely the result of some dry air
intrusions and westerly shear over the small cyclone. Given its
lackluster satellite presentation, and its increased distance from
the enhanced background flow associated with a gap wind event, it is
assumed that some weakening has occurred overnight. Thus, the
initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt.

Pilar is moving quickly west-southwestward (255/19 kt), steered by a
combination of the low-level northeasterly gap wind flow and the
flow associated with a mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of
the storm. A weakness is expected to develop in this ridge during
the next couple of days as a mid-level trough/cut-off low moves
toward the Baja California peninsula. This weakness in the ridge
should cause Pilar to gradually slow down and turn toward the west
and west-northwest through early next week. The track guidance is in
reasonably good agreement on this scenario. The latest NHC track
forecast generally remains between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids,
and this prediction is very similar to the previous one.

The westerly shear and bouts of dry air entrainment are likely to
continue over the next couple of days. The latest GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite imagery does show convection returning with
Pilar later this morning, but it also suggests that its convective
structure may continue fluctuating in the coming days. Since Pilar
is a small storm, it will be more susceptible to disruptions from
the marginal environmental conditions. Although Pilar will remain
over very warm waters, the intensity guidance generally shows little
change in strength through the weekend, and the NHC forecast follows
suit. As Pilar gains latitude at days 3-5, the cyclone is expected
to weaken as it encounters stronger southwesterly shear. In fact,
this forecast shows Pilar degenerating to a 30-kt remnant low by the
end of the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 10.4N 101.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 10.0N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 9.7N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 9.8N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 10.1N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 10.5N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 11.3N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 13.0N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 030835
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

...PILAR CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 101.4W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 101.4 West. Pilar is
moving quickly toward the west-southwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). A
turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days. A slower west-northwestward motion
is forecast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 030834
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0900 UTC FRI NOV 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 101.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 101.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 100.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.0N 103.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 9.7N 106.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 9.8N 109.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.1N 111.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 10.5N 113.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.3N 115.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 13.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 101.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 030244
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

On regular geostationary satellite imagery, Pilar's structure is not
that impressive, with pulsing deep convection near the center and a
continued lack of banding features. However, an earlier AMSR-2
microwave pass at 2003 UTC and a more recent 2231 UTC GPM pass show
the cyclone's low-level structure is more formidable, with a cyan
ring evident on the 37-GHz channel. However, the 89-GHz channel
shows the deeper convection is displaced northeast of the center,
possibly a result of moderate westerly vertical wind shear due to
the brisk Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind flow Pilar is embedded in.
While subjective Dvorak estimates remains on the lower side, at
T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, and T2.5/35 kt form SAB, the initial intensity
will remain 50 kt this advisory, out of respect for the earlier
scatterometer data. The maximum winds on Pilar's north side are
likely a result of Pilar's cyclonic vortex superimposed on the
larger gap-wind flow in the area.

This same flow appears to have caused Pilar to accelerate today, and
its estimated motion is currently rapid to the west-southwest at
250/19 kt. A continued west-southwestward motion with a gradual
slowdown is expected for the next day or so as the small cyclone is
steered by the low-level gap winds in addition to a mid-level ridge
draped along to its northwest. Farther upstream, an upper-level
trough is forecast to dig into the Baja California Peninsula, which
will ultimately erode the ridging at the same time Pilar leaves the
influence of the gap wind flow, allowing for a turn westward and
west-northwestward by the end of the forecast. The track aids this
evening have shifted faster and a bit farther south, influenced some
by the initial position assisted by the microwave data. The NHC
track forecast is a blend of the prior interpolated track with the
consensus aids.

As earlier stated, the environmental conditions do not appear all
that favorable for Pilar, as the gap winds the storm is embedded in
also contribute to moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The shear
direction is important, because that could result in Pilar importing
dry air upstream as seen in the GOES-18 water vapor imagery. In
addition, the cyclone is quite small, potentially making it more
susceptible than usual to less favorable environmental conditions.
Thus, the NHC intensity forecast continues to slow little change in
intensity or very gradual weakening, despite the storm moving over
warmer sea-surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast
favors a blend of the HAFS-A/B hurricane-dynamical guidance and IVCN
consensus aid. By early next week, even stronger vertical wind shear
will lead to a faster rate of weakening, and it's possible Pilar
could become a remnant low or dissipate by the end of the forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 10.7N 99.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 10.0N 101.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 9.7N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 9.6N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 9.8N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 10.1N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 10.8N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 11.8N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 13.6N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 030240
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

...SMALL PILAR MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EAST
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 99.2W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 99.2 West. Pilar is
moving rapidly toward the west-southwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This
general motion with a gradual slowdown is expected during the next
day or so, followed by a more westward and west-northwestward motion
by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Very gradual weakening is forecast over the next 2 to 3 days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 030240
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0300 UTC FRI NOV 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 99.2W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 99.2W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 98.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 10.0N 101.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 9.7N 105.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 9.6N 108.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 9.8N 110.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.1N 112.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 10.8N 114.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 11.8N 116.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 13.6N 118.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 99.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 022036
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

Pilar has not changed much during the past several hours. The storm
continues to produce a ragged area of deep convection that lacks
banding features with dry and stable air, associated with the
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, intruding into the
circulation. Despite this steady state appearance, a recent ASCAT-C
pass showed peak winds between 45 and 50 kt, and therefore, the
initial intensity is nudged back up to 50 kt. This value is above
the latest Dvorak classifications. Pilar is quite compact with its
tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend up to 60 n mi
from the center and its overall deep cloud field only extending a
little more than 100 n mi across.

The environmental conditions around Pilar during the next few days
are marginal. Although SSTs are warm, the vertical wind shear is
expected to be moderate and dry air in the vicinity of the cyclone
could continue to intrude into the circulation. The net result will
likely be fluctuations in strength through the weekend. By early
next week, however, Pilar is expected to move into a region of
stronger shear, and that should result in a weakening trend. The
NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, mostly based
on the initial intensity, and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The storm is moving just south of due west at 14 kt. A continued
swift west-southwestward to westward motion is expected during the
next day or two while the system remains steered by a low- to
mid-level ridge to its northwest. After that time, a slow down and
a westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted as the ridge
breaks down and the weakening system moves in the low- to mid-level
flow. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and little
change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 11.6N 96.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 10.9N 99.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 10.4N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 10.3N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 10.5N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 10.7N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 11.2N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 12.3N 114.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 13.6N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 022034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

...PILAR A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 96.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 96.9 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected during the next day or two. After that time, a
slower motion to the west or west-northwest is predicted.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 022033
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
2100 UTC THU NOV 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 96.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 96.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 96.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 10.9N 99.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.4N 102.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.3N 105.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.2N 112.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 12.3N 114.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 13.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 96.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 021436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

...PILAR MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 95.2W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 95.2 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest with an increase in forward motion is expected during
the next day or two, followed by a westward motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 021437
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

Pilar continues to have a burst of convection near the low-level
center this morning. There have been a few microwave passes this
morning, which depict the overall pulsing nature of the convective
structure of Pilar. The satellite intensity estimates have decreased
slightly this cycle. Given the nature of the pulsing convective
pattern, the initial intensity leans toward the Dvorak CI-numbers,
which were 3.0 and 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. This
supports keeping the initial intensity steady at 45 kt, but this
could be a little generous.

Pilar continues to accelerate westward this morning at an estimated
motion of 260/13 kt. A strengthening mid-level ridge is building to
the north and northeast of Pilar, which will steer the system
west-southwestward the next few days. A shortwave trough is forecast
to move in from the northwest and weaken the mid-level ridge late
this weekend. This will result in Pilar slowing down and turning
west to west-northwest early next week. The model guidance is
in fairly good agreement with this scenario, with the main
difference among the models being along-track with the forward
speed of Pilar. The NHC forecast is slightly faster than the
previous, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids.

The near term intensity forecast is a little tricky given the
pulsing convective nature of Pilar and the interaction with strong
low-level northerly winds associated with an ongoing Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event. The gap wind flow could introduce some
drier air into Pilar's circulation, which may briefly disrupt its
convective organization. Later this weekend, the system is forecast
to move over warm sea surface temperatures with weak to moderate
vertical wind shear. There is some spread in the intensity guidance
between 36-72h with some of the hurricane regional models showing
strengthening, while some of the global models show little change in
intensity. Given the favorable parameters and the guidance trends,
the NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous at
these time ranges, but still below the HWRF, HAFS-A and HCCA
corrected consensus. Towards the end of the forecast period, Pilar
will encounter a less favorable environment with increasing
southwesterly shear and drier air. Given the small size of Pilar,
intensity fluctuations are possible throughout the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 11.9N 95.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 11.2N 97.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 10.5N 100.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 10.1N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 10.2N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 10.5N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 10.9N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 11.9N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 13.1N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 021436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1500 UTC THU NOV 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 95.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 95.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 94.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.2N 97.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 10.5N 100.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.1N 104.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.5N 109.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 11.9N 114.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 13.1N 117.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 95.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY




Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 020838
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

After a lull in convective activity last night, a small area of deep
convection has developed and persisted with Pilar early this
morning. The center of the compact storm is located underneath a
small cold dense overcast, and the latest satellite intensity
estimates have risen as a result of this improved convective
structure. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt for this advisory,
in best agreement with a T3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak classification
from TAFB and a 45-kt SATCON estimate.

Pilar is accelerating westward away from land (265 degrees/12 kt).
As a mid-level ridge continues building to the north and northwest
of Pilar, the storm is expected to move faster to the west-southwest
during the next couple of days. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough
is forecast to move across the Baja California peninsula and weaken
the steering ridge. As a result, Pilar should slow down and turn
toward the west and west-northwest early next week. In general,
there is good agreement among the models on the future track of
Pilar, with more of the differences in the along-track direction.
Once again, the official NHC forecast is slightly faster than the
previous prediction based on the latest TVCE and HCCA aids.

Pilar is near a strong band of low-level northerly winds associated
with an ongoing Tehuantepec gap wind event. The gap wind flow could
introduce some drier air into Pilar's circulation and/or briefly
disrupt its convective organization. Otherwise, the storm is
forecast to move over warm waters in a generally weak to moderate
shear environment through this weekend. There is more spread noted
in the intensity guidance at 48-72 h. Some of the regional hurricane
models (HWRF, HAFS-A) show strengthening during this period, while
the global models and other regional guidance (HMON, HAFS-B) show
little change or some weakening. Given the higher initial intensity
and guidance trends this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is slightly
stronger than the previous one through the first few days of the
period. But overall, little change in strength is forecast during
the next few days. As Pilar gains latitude at days 4-5, it should
encounter stronger southwesterly shear and weaken more.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 12.3N 94.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 11.5N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 10.6N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 10.0N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 9.9N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 10.0N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 10.3N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 11.3N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 12.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 020836
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

...PILAR ACCELERATING WESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 94.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 94.1 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest with an increase in forward speed is expected during
the next couple of days, followed by a westward motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 020836
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0900 UTC THU NOV 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.5N 96.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 10.6N 99.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.0N 102.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 9.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.0N 108.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.3N 110.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 11.3N 113.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 12.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 94.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 020232
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

Deep convection near the center of Pilar has diminished
significantly this evening. Cloud tops associated with the cyclone
are now generally warmer than -50 deg C. This degradation in the
cloud structure could be at least partially be caused by the
system's passage over upwelled ocean waters near the coast. Another
factor could be some disruption due to the influence of a nearby
Tehuantepec gap wind event. Given the decrease in convection, it is
assumed that some weakening has occurred and the current intensity
is set at 40 kt for this advisory. This is close to the mean of
final T-numbers and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Center fixes indicate that the westward track is continuing with a
motion estimate of 270/10 kt. A prominent mid-level subtropical
ridge is expected to remain north of Pilar, and strengthen further,
during the next few days. This should force a westward to
west-southwestward motion with some increase in forward speed. The
official track forecast is again a little faster than the previous
one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model
consensus predictions.

The gap wind event and easterly vertical wind shear could cause
some additional weakening during the next day or so. Later in the
forecast period, moderate shear and marginal thermodynamic
conditions are likely to inhibit strengthening. The NHC forecast
shows very slow weakening through the period. However, there is a
possibility that the system will degenerate into a remnant low or a
trough within the next 5 days.


Key Messages:

1. The combination of previous heavy rainfall and any additional
rainfall from Pilar may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast from El
Salvador into southern Guatemala overnight.

2. Swells generated by Pilar and strong winds near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are expected to continue affecting the Pacific coast of
Central America during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 12.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 11.7N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 10.8N 97.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 9.9N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 9.4N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 9.5N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 9.7N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 10.5N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 11.3N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 020231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0300 UTC THU NOV 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 92.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 92.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.7N 94.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 10.8N 97.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 9.9N 101.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 9.4N 104.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 9.5N 106.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 9.7N 109.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 10.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 11.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 92.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 020232
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

...PILAR CONTINUING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 92.6 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a faster westward
to west-southwestward motion is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible during the
next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to
2 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, mainly in portions of El
Salvador and southern Guatemala overnight. The additional rainfall
may produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar and strong winds near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are expected to continue affecting the Pacific coast of
Central America during the next day or two. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 012045
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

...PILAR ACCELERATING WESTWARD AWAY FROM CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 91.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of El Salvador has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the coast of El Salvador.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 91.7 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster west-
southwestward motion is expected by tonight or early Thursday, and
that motion should continue into Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to
2 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, for portions of Central
America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras, western
Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica through Wednesday. The additional
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 012041
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

Convection over and near Pilar's low-level circulation continues to
flare periodically. A recent burst of convection has obscured the
center on visible satellite imagery. Satellite intensity estimates
have trended downward this cycle, with 45 kt from TAFB and SAB
and a range of 33-49 kt from various objective estimates. The
initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based on these values.

Pilar is accelerating westward with an estimated motion of 270/9
kt. This general motion with an increase in forward speed is
forecast for the next few days as the storm is steered along the
south side of a mid-level ridge. The model guidance has
accelerated again from the previous advisory. The latest forecast
track is a blend of the prior prediction and the latest simple and
corrected consensus aids.

Moderate deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to persist for
at least another 24 hours. While the shear decreases beyond a day,
Pilar will likely encounter a drier, more stable airmass associated
with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. These environmental
conditions, along with cooler, upwelled ocean waters should result
in a gradual weaken trend as indicated by the majority of the
dynamical intensity guidance. The official intensity forecast
reflects this scenario and is closest to the simple model consensus.
There remains the possibility that Pilar could weaken sooner and
become a post-tropical cyclone or open into a trough. However, the
official forecast conservatively maintains a 5-day forecast for now.


Key Messages:

1. Additional heavy rainfall from Pilar will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the
Pacific coast of Central America from southern El Salvador, across
southern Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica
through today.

2. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.0N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 11.1N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 10.2N 99.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 9.5N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 9.3N 105.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 9.4N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 10.0N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 10.9N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 012040
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
2100 UTC WED NOV 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 91.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 91.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.0N 93.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.1N 96.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 10.2N 99.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 9.5N 102.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 9.3N 105.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 9.4N 107.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 10.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 10.9N 115.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 91.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 012040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

...PILAR ACCELERATING WESTWARD AWAY FROM CENTRAL AMERICA....


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 91.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of El Salvador has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the coast of El Salvador.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 91.7 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster west-
southwestward motion is expected by tonight or early Thursday, and
that motion should continue into Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to
2 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, for portions of Central
America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras, western
Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica through Wednesday. The additional
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 011747
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
100 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

...PILAR MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST....
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING STILL A THREAT OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 91.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 91.2 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster west-
southwestward motion is expected by tonight or early Thursday, and
that motion should continue into Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Pilar will continue to move away from the coast of
Central America this afternoon and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, for portions of Central
America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras, western
Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica through today. The additional
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area in El Salvador through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 011446
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

Deep convection has continued to burst over the western portion of
Pilar's circulation this morning. However, the cloud tops have been
warming during the past couple of hours, and recent visible imagery
still indicates that the low-level circulation is located near the
eastern edge of the convection. The initial intensity is again held
at 50 kt, which is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Recent satellite fixes show that Pilar is now moving westward or
270 degrees at 6 kt. A much faster westward to west-southwestward
motion is expected during the next few days as a narrow mid-level
ridge builds across southern Mexico. The dynamical model guidance
continues to trend toward a faster solution, and the NHC track
forecast has again been sped up from the previous advisory. The
new forecast track lies between the previous interpolated forecast
and the latest HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

The moderate shear that has been plaguing Pilar is expected to
continue for another day or so. Although the shear may decrease
somewhat after that time, the storm is likely to encounter a drier
and more stable airmass from an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind
event. In addition, Pilar is expected to pass over an area of
slightly cooler upwelled waters to the south and southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. As a result of these unfavorable conditions,
most of the dynamical model guidance shows gradual weakening
during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows
suit. It should be noted that simulated satellite imagery from the
GFS suggests that Pilar could struggle to maintain organized deep
convection by the weekend. The NHC forecast maintains Pilar as a
tropical cyclone for the entire 5-day period, but it is possible
that the system degenerates into a remnant low or trough before the
end of the period. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty in
the longer range status and intensity of the system.


Key Messages:

1. Additional heavy rainfall from Pilar will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the
Pacific coast of Central America from southern El Salvador, across
southern Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica
through today.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Pacific coast of El Salvador where a Tropical Storm Watch remains
in effect.

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 12.5N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 12.2N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 11.6N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 10.6N 97.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 9.9N 100.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 9.4N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 9.3N 105.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 9.6N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 10.4N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 011445
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1500 UTC WED NOV 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 90.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 90.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 90.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.2N 91.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.6N 94.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 10.6N 97.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 9.9N 100.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 9.4N 103.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 9.3N 105.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 9.6N 110.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 10.4N 113.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 90.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 011445
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

...PILAR NOW MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA....
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING STILL A THREAT OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 90.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the Pacific coast of Nicaragua.

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the Pacific coast of Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 6 to 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 90.5 West. Pilar is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster west-
southwestward motion is expected by tonight, and that motion should
continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Pilar
will be moving away from the coast of Central America later today
and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, for portions of Central
America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras, western
Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica through today. The additional
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area in El Salvador through early this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 011152
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
700 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

...PILAR NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 89.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 6 to 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 89.9 West. Pilar is
moving toward the northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). Pilar has moved
little the past few hours, but it is forecast to turn westward later
today and then accelerate west-southwestward through Friday. On the
forecast track, Pilar will remain in close proximity to the coast
of Central America through this morning, but the core of the storm
is expected to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, for portions of Central
America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras, western
Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through today. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area through early this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 010840
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

Deep convection associated with Pilar has increased over the western
portion of the circulation this morning. Despite some continued
east-southeasterly shear over the cyclone, the cold dense overcast
has begun to expand eastward, and proxy-visible and shortwave
infrared satellite images suggest the center is no longer exposed.
The latest objective intensity estimates seem too low based on
recent satellite trends and yesterday's scatterometer data. A blend
of subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB
support holding the initial intensity at 50 kt.

Satellite images and recent fixes suggest Pilar is now moving
northwestward (325/3 kt). A more westward motion is expected later
today, followed by an acceleration to the west-southwest through
Friday as a mid-level ridge builds over central Mexico. This motion
away from land should be reinforced by the low-level northerly flow
well downstream of a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. The
only notable change to the NHC track forecast is a faster forward
speed during the first few days of the forecast, which is supported
by the latest TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

While the satellite structure of Pilar has improved during the
diurnal maximum period, the storm will continue to be impacted by
moderate shear during the next couple of days. Also, the regional
hurricane models show that the slow-moving cyclone has upwelled some
cooler waters, and Pilar is forecast to move over this cool wake
during the next day or two. In addition, model-simulated satellite
imagery indicates the storm's convection could be disrupted while it
encounters the drier low-level flow downstream of the ongoing gap
wind event. Not surprisingly, most of the intensity guidance shows
some gradual weakening during the next couple of days, and the
official NHC forecast follows suit. Later in the period, there is a
large spread in the intensity guidance, as the statistical-dynamical
aids show strengthening while the global and regional hurricane
models are much weaker. Similar to the previous prediction, this
forecast stays near the simple consensus (IVCN) and shows little
intensity change from days 3-5.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast
of Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern
Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through today.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, where a
Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect.

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 12.3N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 12.1N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 11.7N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 11.0N 95.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 10.2N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 9.6N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 9.2N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 9.5N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 10.0N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 010838
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

...PILAR EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 89.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 6 to 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 89.9 West. Pilar is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). Pilar is forecast
to turn westward later today and then accelerate west-southwestward
through Friday. On the forecast track, Pilar will remain in close
proximity to the coast of Central America through this morning, but
the core of the storm is expected to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, for portions of Central
America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras, western
Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through today. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 010835
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0900 UTC WED NOV 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 89.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 89.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 89.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.1N 90.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.7N 92.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.0N 95.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 10.2N 98.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 9.6N 101.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 9.2N 103.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 9.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 10.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 89.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 010546
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
100 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 89.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 6 to 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 89.6 West. Pilar is
drifting toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Pilar is forecast
to turn westward later today and then accelerate west-southwestward
through Friday. On the forecast track, Pilar may remain in close
proximity to the coast of Central America through this morning, but
the core of the storm is expected to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is anticipated over the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 36 mph (57 km/h) was recently
reported at the El Salvador International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, for portions of Central
America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras, western
Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through today. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area through this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 010239
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

After the previous advisory, a significant convective burst formed
mainly to the west of the center of Pilar that is now waning.
While the most recent GPM microwave pass missed the center of
the storm, it did catch a prominent curved band on the 37-GHz
channel extending to the northwest away from the center. Subjective
Dvorak estimates were T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB.
Taking a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is set at
50 kt this advisory. This value also assumes a bit of undersampling
from the ASCAT-B/C passes that had peak wind retrievals of 45 kt
outside of the convection earlier today. While the wind-radii were
adjusted a bit based on that scatterometer data, the 34-kt winds
remain just offshore of El Salvador.

Pilar has nudged a bit closer to the coast of El Salvador, with the
estimated motion a drift to the north at 360/2 kt. The upper-level
trough that had weakened the ridging over Mexico is lifting out, and
in response, mid-level ridging is becoming re-established over
Mexico. In addition, a significant gale-force gap wind event is
currently ongoing to the west of Pilar in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A
combination of these low and mid-level steering influences is
expected to start moving Pilar to the west and then west-southwest
beginning tomorrow and continuing through the end of this week. The
track guidance remains in fairly good agreement on this solution,
though was a bit further north early on given the initial position,
and further south towards the end of the forecast. The NHC track has
been adjusted accordingly, and still lies in between the reliable
TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

Pilar could be near its peak intensity as it continues to battle
moderate vertical wind shear out of the east. While this shear is
forecast to decrease in the next 24-48 hours, this is expected to be
offset by ocean upwelling, which is likely occurring near the slow
moving storm currently, in addition to the strong gap-wind flow
further west also putting a dent in the sea-surface temperatures
along Pilar's forecast track. This effect is most accurately
captured by the atmospheric-ocean coupled hurricane regional
guidance, which are all notably lower than the consensus aids as
they show Pilar traversing SSTs below 26 C over the next few days.
The aforementioned gap winds may also import dry mid-latitude air
near the circulation of Pilar as it begins to lose latitude. The
most recent GFS and ECMWF runs also show a weaker system than before
after the next 36-48 hours, so a bit more weakening is shown in the
latest NHC forecast. This forecast splits the difference between the
higher IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and the lower hurricane
regional model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast
of Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern
Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through
Wednesday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, where a
Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect.

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.9N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.9N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 11.7N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 11.3N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 10.6N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 9.8N 98.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 9.4N 101.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 9.0N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 10.0N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 010236
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...PILAR DRIFTING NORTHWARD BUT FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD
TOMORROW...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 89.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 12 to 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in
southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 89.4 West. Pilar is
drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). Beginning tomorrow
into Thursday, Pilar is forecast to start moving westward to
west-southwestward. On the forecast track, the storm may remain in
close proximity to coastal Central America into tomorrow, but
Pilar's core is forecast to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated over
the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5
to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, for portions of
Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern
Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through
Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area during the next day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 010236
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0300 UTC WED NOV 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 89.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 89.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 89.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.9N 89.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 91.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.3N 93.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 10.6N 96.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 9.8N 98.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 9.4N 101.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 9.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 10.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 89.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 312338
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...PILAR DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 89.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in
southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 89.4 West. Pilar is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). Pilar is forecast
to move little tonight into tomorrow. On the forecast track, Pilar
could move a little closer to the coast of El Salvador or Nicaragua
through early Wednesday, though the core of the system is expected
to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to begin moving
west-southwestward away from land by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so before
gradual weakening likely begins on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5
to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of
Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras,
western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through Wednesday. This
rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area during the next day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 312035
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Satellite imagery shows that Pilar's center remains exposed on the
southeast side of the main convective plume. Earlier AMSR2 and
SSMI/S microwave imagery depicts some partial banding features
within the northern semi-circle. Scatterometer ASCAT-B and -C passes
this afternoon shows satellite derived winds are around 40 to 45
knots. These values are in good agreement with the latest Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB, T/3.0 or 45
knots. Therefore, given the combination of data this the
initial intensity remains at 45 kt for this advisory.

Pilar is moving slowly east-northeastward or 060/3 kt. The storm is
forecast to move very little tonight as the steering currents over
the far eastern Pacific collapse. A mid-level ridge is then forecast
to build to the north and northeast of Pilar, which should cause the
storm to begin moving west-southwestward. As the mid-level ridge
continues to build westward, Pilar will be steered on a
west-southwestward to westward motion along the southern side of the
ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and lies near the latest consensus aids. The threat of
tropical-storm-force winds should begin to diminish as Pilar starts
moving westward, but the risk of heavy rain and flash-flooding is
expected to continue over portions of Central America over the next
couple of days.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so as
the storm is located over warm sea surface temperatures and moderate
vertical wind shear. In about 2 to 3 days vertical wind shear is
forecast to weaken, but dry air from a gap wind event from the Gulf
of Tehuantepec may limit intensification. Towards the end of the
period, the environmental conditions may become a little more
conducive and the official forecast depicts strengthening once
again. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the corrected HCCA
consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast
of Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern
Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through
Wednesday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, where a
Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect.

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 11.4N 89.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.5N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 11.5N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 11.2N 92.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 10.7N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 10.1N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 9.6N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 9.5N 105.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 10.1N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 312034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 89.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in
southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 89.5 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). Pilar is
forecast to move little tonight into early Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Pilar could move a little closer to the coast of El
Salvador or Nicaragua tonight through early Wednesday, though the
core of the system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is
forecast to begin moving west-southwestward away from land by
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so before
gradual weakening likely begins on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5
to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of
Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras,
western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through Wednesday. This
rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area during the next day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 312033
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
2100 UTC TUE OCT 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 89.5W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 89.5W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 89.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.5N 89.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.2N 92.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 10.7N 94.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 10.1N 97.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 9.6N 100.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 9.5N 105.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 10.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 89.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 311755
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 89.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in
southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 89.8 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slower
northeastward motion is expected to begin later today. Pilar is
forecast to move little tonight and early Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Pilar could move a little closer to the coast of El
Salvador or Nicaragua late today through early Wednesday, though
the core of the system is expected to remain offshore. The storm
is forecast to begin moving west-southwestward away from land by
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so
before gradual weakening likely begins on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5
to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of
Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras,
western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through Wednesday. This
rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area during the next day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 311600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 11.2N 90.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 90.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 11.5N 89.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.7N 90.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.5N 91.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.1N 93.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 10.5N 95.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 9.9N 98.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 9.4N 103.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 9.8N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311600Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 90.1W.
31OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1965
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 311444
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...HEAVY RAINS FROM PILAR SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 89.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in
southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 89.9 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slower northeastward
motion is expected to begin later today. Pilar is forecast to
move little tonight and early Wednesday On the forecast track,
Pilar could move a little closer to the coast of El Salvador or
Nicaragua late today through early Wednesday, though the core of the
system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to
begin moving west-southwestward away from land by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so before
gradual weakening likely begins on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5
to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of
Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras,
western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through Wednesday. This
rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area during the next day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 311444
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Pilar's structure has changed little since last night. GOES-16
one-minute visible satellite imagery shows that the center is
exposed to the southeast of the main convective mass, with some
banding noted over the far northeastern portion of the circulation.
Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB were
T3.0 or 45 kt at 1200 UTC, and the initial intensity remains at
that value for this advisory.

Pilar is still moving slowly eastward or 090/3 kt. The storm is
forecast to stall later today as the steering current over the far
eastern Pacific collapse. On Wednesday, a narrow mid-level
ridge is forecast to build to the north and northeast of Pilar
which should cause the storm to begin moving west-southwestward. A
west-southwestward to westward motion is then expected into the
weekend as the ridge builds westward to the north of the storm. The
latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
is a blend of the the ECMWF, GFS, and the latest consensus aids.
The Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Central America remains in
effect, but given the latest model trends it could be discontinued
later today or this evening. Although the threat of tropical-storm-
force winds appears to be diminishing, the risk of heavy rain and
flash flooding is expected to continue over portions of Central
America during the next couple of days.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so
as the storm is located within moderate vertical wind shear and
over warm sea surface temperatures. However, the latest NHC
forecast calls for a little less intensification during this time
than before. As Pilar moves westward the shear could relax, but
intrusions of dry air from a gap wind event are likely to hold the
intensity in check. Very late in the period, the intensity guidance
suggests that environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive to support some strengthening during the weekend, and the
NHC wind speed forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast
of Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern
Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through
Wednesday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, where a
Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect.

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 11.2N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 11.5N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 11.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 11.5N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 11.1N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 10.5N 95.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 9.9N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 9.4N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 9.8N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 311443
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1500 UTC TUE OCT 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 89.9W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 89.9W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 90.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.5N 89.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.7N 90.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.5N 91.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N 93.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 10.5N 95.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 9.9N 98.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 9.4N 103.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 9.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 89.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 31/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 311151
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...HEAVY RAINS FROM PILAR AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 90.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in
southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 90.2 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast
track, Pilar could be approaching the coast of El Salvador or
Nicaragua late today through early Wednesday, though the core of the
system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to
begin moving west-southwestward away from land by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Pilar could intensify some over the next day or two before
gradual weakening likely begins on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of
Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through
Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical Storm
Watch areas this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 11.2N 90.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 90.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 11.6N 89.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 11.8N 89.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.7N 90.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.3N 92.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 10.7N 94.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 10.1N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 9.2N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.5N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 90.4W.
31OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1948
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 310839
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

While deep convection has increased with Pilar overnight, the
center of the storm remains mostly exposed on the southeastern
side of a burst of deep convection. It seems like moderate shear
is preventing the system from strengthening, with basically no
thunderstorm activity southeast of the center. The initial wind
speed remains 45 kt based on a blend of the available intensity
estimates.

Pilar continues to creep east-northeastward, or 075/3 kt, a little
slower than the previous advisory. The steering flow is expected to
collapse later today, with most of the guidance stalling Pilar just
east of 90W, then accelerating the storm west-southwestward as a
mid-level ridge builds by Thursday. Generally, the model guidance
stays a touch farther offshore than the last cycle, and the official
forecast follows the trend. Little change was made at long range,
with the previous forecast coming in very close to the model
consensus. It is possible that later today the Tropical Storm Watch
could be discontinued for portions of Central America, but there
remains a significant heavy rain and flash flooding threat.

The storm still has a chance to intensify over the next day or so
within moderate wind shear conditions but in a moist and unstable
air mass along with warm ocean waters. It seems like the chances of
Pilar becoming a hurricane have decreased, and the peak NHC wind
speed forecast is dropped 5 kt from the previous one, slightly above
the model consensus. It remains to be seen how Pilar maintains
itself in a challenging environment after 60 hours, with dry air
intrusions from a gap wind event and easterly wind shear. The
intensity forecast is maintained at 45 kt at long range, blending
reliable guidance showing tropical depression to hurricane strength,
and the uncertainty is high at long range.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast
of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through
Wednesday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning later today
along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and
Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect.

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 11.4N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 11.6N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 11.8N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 11.7N 90.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 11.3N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 10.7N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 10.1N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 9.2N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 9.5N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 310836
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...PILAR COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 90.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in
southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 90.4 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast
track, Pilar could be approaching the coast of El Salvador or
Nicaragua late today through early Wednesday, though the core of
the system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast
to begin moving west-southwestward away from land by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Pilar could intensify some over the next day or two before
gradual weakening likely begins on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of
Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through
Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical Storm
Watch areas this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 310835
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0900 UTC TUE OCT 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 90.4W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 90.4W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 90.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 11.6N 89.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.8N 89.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.7N 90.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.3N 92.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 10.7N 94.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 10.1N 97.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 9.2N 102.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 9.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 90.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 310538
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...HEAVY RAINS FROM PILAR MOVING INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 90.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in
southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located by satellite imagery near latitude 11.2 North, longitude
90.6 West. Pilar is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
an east-northeast motion is expected to resume later today through
early Wednesday. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the
coast of El Salvador or Nicaragua late today through early
Wednesday, though the core of the system is expected to remain
offshore. The storm is forecast to begin moving west-southwestward
away from land by late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Pilar could be near
hurricane strength by late today. Weakening is expected to begin
by late Wednesday and continue through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of
Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through
Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical Storm
Watch areas this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 91.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 91.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 11.4N 90.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 11.7N 89.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.9N 90.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.6N 91.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.1N 92.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 10.5N 95.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.3N 100.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.3N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310400Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 90.8W.
31OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1928
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND 010400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 310241
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Pilar has not strengthened this evening. In fact, the system looks
less organized on satellite images with the center becoming exposed
on the southern side of a ragged-looking area of deep convection.
There are some poorly-defined banding features over the western
portion of the circulation, and the upper-level outflow does not
appear to be very pronounced. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB are 3.0 which corresponds to 45 kt, and objective
satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased a bit
from earlier today. The intensity estimate is held at 45 kt for
this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is slowly east-northeastward, or 070/4
kt, which is about the same as in the previous advisory. There is
currently a weakness in the ridge to the northeast of Pilar which is
apparently inducing the east-northeastward motion. This movement is
expected to continue a little while longer, bringing the center of
the cyclone closer to the coast on Tuesday. Over the next few days,
a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast and north of
the system. This steering evolution should cause Pilar to make a
sharp turn and move west-southwestward away from the coast beginning
Wednesday. A continued west-southwestward to westward track is
likely for the rest of the forecast period. The official track
forecast is close to the model consensus, and does not bring the
center of Pilar closer to the coast than previously forecast.

Although moderate vertical wind shear is likely to continue
affecting Pilar, a moist and unstable air mass along with warm ocean
waters should allow some strengthening during the next day or so.
Later in the forecast period, easterly shear could inhibit
strengthening. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the
simple and corrected model consensus predictions.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast
of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through
Wednesday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning early Tuesday
along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and
Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. Interests
elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, and Nicaragua should
monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or
warnings could be needed tomorrow.

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 11.3N 90.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 11.4N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 11.7N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 11.9N 90.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 11.6N 91.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 11.1N 92.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 10.5N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 9.3N 100.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 9.3N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 310241
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

...PILAR EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 90.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 90.9 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. On
the forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador or
Nicaragua Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the core of the
system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to
begin moving west-southwestward away from land by late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and Pilar could be near hurricane
strength by late Tuesday. Weakening is expected to begin by late
Wednesday and continue through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of
Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through
Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area Tuesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 310240
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0300 UTC TUE OCT 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 90.9W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 90.9W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 91.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.4N 90.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.7N 89.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.9N 90.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.6N 91.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N 92.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 10.5N 95.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 9.3N 100.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 9.3N 105.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 90.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 31/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 302347 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Corrected location in the summary and discussion

...PILAR EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 91.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 91.0 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion
is expected to continue through early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador or Nicaragua
Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the core of the system is
expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to move
west-southwestward away from land on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
and Pilar could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday. Weakening is
expected to begin on Wednesday and continue through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of Central
America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Wednesday.
This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 302340
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

...PILAR EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 90.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 90.9 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion
is expected to continue through early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador or Nicaragua
Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the core of the system is
expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to move
west-southwestward away from land on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
and Pilar could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday. Weakening is
expected to begin on Wednesday and continue through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of Central
America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Wednesday.
This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 302045
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Pilar seems to have held somewhat steady this afternoon. 1-minute
geostationary satellite visible imagery shows the low-level
circulation beginning to be exposed just east of the deep convection
as the central deep overcast gradually clears. Recent microwave
imagery revealed a decent curved band wrapping around the western
and northern portions of the core. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates range from 39-51 kt and the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt, closest to the SAB T3.0/45 kt value.

The storm continues to move slowly east-northeastward. Models
generally agree on this motion, which should continue for the next
day or so. By Tuesday evening, Pilar is forecast to stall near the
coast of El Salvador with the core of the storm offshore. By
Wednesday the storm is expected to turn west-southwestward, away
from the coastline, in the flow of a building ridge over the western
Caribbean and Central America. The latest NHC track forecast is
shifted slightly north of the previous prediction, largely due to
the northward shift in the initial position.

Moderate east-southeasterly shear appears to be affecting Pilar.
However, most of the model guidance indicates that the storm should
steadily strengthen for the next day or so over the warm waters and
in a moist airmass. After 36 h, the deep-layer shear should
increase which will likely induce a weakening trend. By days 3-5,
the shear is expected to abate somewhat. Once again, the long-range
official intensity forecast has been increased slightly and is close
to the various consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, near the Pacific
coast of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica
through Wednesday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning early Tuesday
along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and
Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. Interests
elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, and Nicaragua should
monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or
warnings could be needed later tonight.

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.4N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 11.6N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 11.9N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.3N 89.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 12.2N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 11.8N 91.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 11.2N 93.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 10.1N 98.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 9.9N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 302044
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
2100 UTC MON OCT 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 91.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 91.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 11.6N 90.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 11.9N 89.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.3N 89.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.2N 89.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.8N 91.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.2N 93.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 10.1N 98.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 9.9N 104.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 91.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 31/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 302044
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

...PILAR EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 91.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 91.2 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion
is expected to continue through early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador or Nicaragua
Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the core of the system is
expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to move
west-southwestward away from land on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and
Pilar could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday. Weakening is
expected to begin on Wednesday and continue through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, for portions of Central
America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Wednesday.
This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 301750
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

...PILAR EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 91.2W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 91.2 West. Pilar has
recently been moving more northeastward, but an east-northeastward
motion near 6 mph (9 km/h) is expected to resume later today. On the
forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador or
Nicaragua Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the core of the
system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to
move west-southwestward away from land on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further strengthening is expected during the next day or
so, and Pilar could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday.
Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and continue through
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, for portions of Central
America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Wednesday.
This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 301451
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Pilar appears to have intensified this morning. Satellite imagery
indicate that very deep convection is located to the northwest of
the center, with more organization in low-level banding features
noted in recent microwave passes. The initial wind speed is set to
45 kt, which matches the recent TAFB satellite classification and is
close to the UW-CIMSS satellite consensus value. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the system
this afternoon for a more precise look at the storm.

The storm continues moving slowly to the east-northeast, and most
models continue this motion for the next day or so. Thereafter,
nearly all of the models stall Pilar near the coast of Central
America by Tuesday night, though they still keep the core of the
storm offshore. On Wednesday, Pilar will likely turn west-
southwestward away from land as a mid-level ridge builds to the
north of the system, and most of the guidance shows the storm moving
very close to or just north of its track on approach to Central
America. Only small changes were made to the previous NHC
forecast, generally near or a bit north of the last track
prediction.

Pilar has a day or two to intensify in moderate shear conditions
within a very warm and moist environment. Most of the guidance
respond to this forcing by showing Pilar near hurricane strength,
and the official forecast continues the same peak as the last
advisory. In 36 to 48 hours, an increase in southeasterly shear
could cause Pilar to level off in intensity and eventually weaken,
along with any dry air intrusions from a gap wind event or
storm-induced upwelling. The long-range intensity guidance is a bit
higher than the last cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted
upward at that time frame.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, near the Pacific
coast of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica
through Wednesday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning early Tuesday
along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and
Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. Interests
elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, and Nicaragua should
monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or
warnings could be needed later today.

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific
coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 11.1N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 11.3N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 11.5N 89.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 12.0N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 12.1N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 11.7N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 11.2N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 10.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 9.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 301449
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1500 UTC MON OCT 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 91.2W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 210SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 91.2W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.3N 90.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.5N 89.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.1N 89.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 90.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.2N 92.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 10.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 9.3N 103.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 91.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 301449
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED WITH PILAR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 91.2W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 91.2 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a
continued east-northeastward motion is expected during the next day
or two. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast of El
Salvador or Nicaragua Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the
core of the system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is
forecast to move west-southwestward away from land on Thursday.

Satellite estimates indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further
strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Pilar could
be near hurricane strength on Tuesday. Weakening is expected to
begin on Wednesday and continue through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, for portions of Central
America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Wednesday.
This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 301150
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

...PILAR FORECAST TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 91.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 91.5 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a continued
slow east-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or
two. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast of El
Salvador Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the core of the
system is expected to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or
so, and Pilar could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday.
Weakening is expected to begin by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, in and near the Pacific
coast of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica
through Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to reach portions of
the Pacific coast of Central America later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 11.0N 92.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 92.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 11.1N 91.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 11.6N 90.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 12.0N 89.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 12.0N 89.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.7N 89.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.1N 91.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 9.8N 95.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 9.3N 100.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 91.7W.
30OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1900 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 300834
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

There has been little change with Pilar overnight. The storm is
still producing a concentrated area of deep convection, but
microwave data suggest that the low-level center is located near the
southeastern edge of the thunderstorms. The latest satellite
intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, but an ASCAT pass from a
few hours ago showed maximum reliable winds closer to 30 kt. Based
on a blend of all of these data, the initial intensity is held at 35
kt.

Pilar is moving slowly to the east-northeast, and that motion should
continue for the next couple of days. Nearly all of the models
stall Pilar near the coast of Central America on Tuesday and Tuesday
night, but at this point the reliable models keep the core of the
storm offshore. On Wednesday, Pilar will likely turn southwestward
away from land as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the
system. The cyclone will likely accelerate westward after that in
part due to an anticipated Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Only
small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast and this
one lies fairly close to the consensus aids.

The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen during the next day
or so as it remains over warm SSTs and in relatively favorable
atmospheric conditions. Pilar is expected to be near hurricane
strength when it is close to the coast of Central America.
However, beyond that time, the slow motion of the system could
cause ocean upwelling and the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event
will likely result in an increase in shear and intrusions of dry
and stable air. Therefore, a weakening trend is forecast beginning
late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast lies
at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls closer
to the middle of the guidance envelope from 72-120 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast
of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through
Wednesday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning early Tuesday
along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and
Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect.
Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala,
and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system as
additional watches or warnings could be needed later today.

3. Swells generated by Pilar will begin to affect portions
of the Pacific coast of Central America later today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 11.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 11.6N 90.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 12.0N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 12.0N 89.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 11.7N 89.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 11.1N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 9.8N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 9.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 300831
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

...PILAR EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 91.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 91.8 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a
continued slow east-northeastward motion is expected during the
next day or two. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the
coast of El Salvador Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the
core of the system is expected to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Pilar
could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday. Weakening is expected
to begin by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, in and near the Pacific
coast of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica
through Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to reach portions of
the Pacific coast of Central America later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 300831
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0900 UTC MON OCT 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 91.8W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 91.8W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 91.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 11.6N 90.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.0N 89.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.7N 89.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.1N 91.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 9.8N 95.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 9.3N 100.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 91.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 300530
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

...PILAR EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 91.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 91.7 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a continued
east-northeastward motion is anticipated for the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast of El
Salvador on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, though the core of the
system is forecast to stay offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next couple of
days, and Pilar could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Pilar is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, in and
around much of the Pacific coast of Central America, including the
country of El Salvador, through Wednesday. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to reach portions of
the Pacific coast of Central America later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 92.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 92.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 11.2N 91.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 11.6N 90.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.0N 89.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 12.3N 88.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 12.0N 88.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.2N 89.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 9.9N 93.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.0N 97.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 92.0W.
30OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 19E (PILAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1892 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 300249
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

A small but concentrated convective burst has been persisting near
the estimated center of the tropical cyclone tonight. After the
prior advisory, we received a fortuitous GPM microwave pass valid
at 2252 UTC that suggested the low-level circulation may have
tightened up some but was located just south of the deepest
convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were up to T2.5/35
kt form TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB. The objective estimates from
ADT, SATCON, and D-PRINT/MINT are all between 34-36 kt, and thus the
latest advisory is set at 35 kt this advisory, upgrading TD19-E to
Tropical Storm Pilar.

A more pronounced east-northeastward motion appears to be starting,
estimated at 060/4 kt. A continued motion to the east-northwest is
anticipated over the next 24-48 hours as Pilar's primary steering
influences are an equatorial ridge south of the storm providing
deep-layer westerlies in addition to a mid- to upper-level cutoff
low over the northwestern Caribbean that is interrupting the more
typical ridging that would be present to the north over Mexico. The
guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, but how far east
the tropical storm gets in the next 48 h remains uncertain, with the
latest HWRF and HAFS-B runs far enough east to affect the Gulf of
Fonseca with tropical storm conditions. For this reason, the
tropical storm watch has been extended eastward to portions of the
Pacific coast of Honduras and Nicaragua this advisory. On Tuesday,
Pilar is expected to stall and move very slowly as low to mid-level
ridging attempts to build back in to the north of the tropical
cyclone and a strong cold front induces a significant gap wind flow
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. By the middle of this week, the
enhanced low-level flow associated with the ridge and gap winds are
forecast to push Pilar away from Central America to the
west-southwest as a weakening tropical storm. As discussed
previously, the confidence of when or how sharp this turn away from
Central America will be is low given the inconsistent model guidance
over the past day. The NHC track this cycle is just a bit closer to
the coast and a touch east of the prior track, but is roughly in
between the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

A small core may be starting to take shape given the earlier
microwave imagery, and the persistent area of convection that Pilar
has been maintaining over the last 3-6 hours near the estimated
center. Most of the guidance maintains this small core structure
with intensification while the storm remains embedded in moderate
(15-20 kt) easterly vertical wind shear but is over warm 28-29 C
sea-surface temperatures in a moist mid-level air environment. The
latest NHC intensity forecast still takes Pilar to near hurricane
intensity in 36 h, on the higher end of the intensity guidance but
not far off the hurricane-regional guidance solutions. Afterwards,
it seems likely a combination of the dry mid-latitude gap-wind flow
in addition to possible cool upwelling of the shallow warm waters
due to slow motion near the coast of Central America could begin a
weakening trend. If the latest HWRF and HAFS-B runs end up being
correct, land interaction could also result in weakening. The
intensity forecast beyond 48 h is a little lower than the prior
advisory, as it is looking more likely that a combination of
moderate shear and additional dry stable air could prevent the storm
from re-intensifying even after it begins to move back over warmer
ocean waters away from its own cold wake.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and
urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain
along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,
through Wednesday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by early Tuesday into
Wednesday along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador,
Honduras, and Nicaragua where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in
effect. Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala,
and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system as
additional watches or warnings could be needed tomorrow.

3. Swells generated by the depression will begin to affect portions
of the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,
beginning on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 11.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 11.2N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 11.6N 90.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 12.0N 89.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 12.3N 88.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 12.0N 88.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 11.2N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 9.9N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 9.0N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 300242
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM PILAR...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA
THIS WEEK AS PILAR MOVES CLOSER TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 92.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the entire Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of
Fonseca.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
the Honduras and Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in along the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and Nicaragua
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 92.0 West. Pilar is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a continued
east-northeastward motion is anticipated for the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast
of El Salvador on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, though the core
of the system is forecast to stay offshore.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the
next couple of days, and Pilar could be near hurricane strength by
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Pilar is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, in and
around much of the Pacific coast of Central America, including the
country of El Salvador, through Wednesday. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to reach portions of
the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 300239
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0300 UTC MON OCT 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 92.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.2N 91.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.6N 90.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.0N 89.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 88.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.0N 88.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.2N 89.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 9.9N 93.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 9.0N 97.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 92.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 292348
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA
THIS WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES CLOSER TO EL SALVADOR...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in along the coasts of Guatemala, Honduras and
northwestern Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 92.4
West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6
km/h), and a northeast or east-northeastward motion is anticipated
for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression could
be near the coast of El Salvador on Tuesday night or early
Wednesday, though the core of the system is likely to stay offshore.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the system could be near hurricane strength in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce storm
total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
in and near much of the Pacific coast of Central America, including
the country of El Salvador, through Wednesday. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach
portions of the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 292056
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the
depression during the past several hours, mostly on the northwestern
side of the circulation. A scatterometer pass at 1600 UTC, however,
showed only 25-30 kt winds a fair distance northeast of the center.
With the subjective Dvorak estimates also 30 kt or less, the initial
wind speed will stay 30 kt on this advisory.

The scatterometer data suggested that the center was a bit southeast
of previous estimates, with only a northeastward drift noted during
the past 24 hours. The depression should begin to move more
steadily northeastward or east-northeastward by early Monday due to
steering flow associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the
northwestern Caribbean. This pattern will likely take the system
near the coast of El Salvador late on Tuesday, close enough
to warrant a Tropical Storm Watch, though most of the guidance
keeps the system offshore. The NHC forecast is shifted southeast of
the previous one, similar to the guidance trend. A strong cold front
is expected to push the system west-southwestward away from Central
America by late Wednesday. Confidence in the details of the track
forecast remains low since the model guidance has been inconsistent
with the track of the system, as well as the dependence on the
incoming cold front.

Gradual intensification is forecast during the next couple of days
with the system moving over warm waters in light or moderate shear.
Increasingly southeasterly shear is noted in all of the global
models on Tuesday, so the NHC forecast will level off then, but is
still close to hurricane strength. The latest guidance has come
down a bit, though since the corrected-consensus guidance is
unchanged, the NHC forecast is about the same as the previous one.
At long range, strong vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry and
stable air will likely cause a weakening trend.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and
urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain
along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,
through Wednesday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by early Tuesday into
Wednesday along portions of the coast of El Salvador where a
Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. Interests elsewhere along
the Pacific coast of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua should
monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or
warnings could be needed tonight or tomorrow.

3. Swells generated by the depression will begin to affect portions
of the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,
beginning on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 10.8N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 10.9N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.2N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 11.7N 90.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 12.0N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 12.0N 89.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 11.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 10.0N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 9.0N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 292054
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...
...FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 92.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of El Salvador has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the entire coast of El Salvador.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in along the coasts of Guatemala, Honduras and
northwestern Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 92.5
West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6
km/h), and a northeast or east-northeastward motion is anticipated
for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression could
be near the coast of El Salvador on Tuesday night or early
Wednesday, though the core of the system is likely to stay offshore.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the system could be near hurricane strength in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce storm
total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
in and near much of the Pacific coast of Central America, including
the country of El Salvador, through Wednesday. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach
portions of the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 292053
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
2100 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 92.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 92.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 92.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 10.9N 92.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.2N 91.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 11.7N 90.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.0N 89.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.4N 89.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 10.0N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 9.0N 97.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 92.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 291450
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

The depression is becoming a bit better organized this morning,
with a curved band seeming to wrap around the apparent center.
While overnight satellite showed multiple low-level swirls within
the large circulation envelope, it seems like the system is
consolidating now near a large burst of convection. Satellite
estimates still support an initial intensity of about 30 kt for this
advisory.

There hasn't been a lot of net movement with the system, with
perhaps a slight north-northeastward motion recently. The system
should begin to move northeastward or east-northeastward at a slow
pace later today as it becomes more steered by the flow associated
with a mid- to upper-level trough over the northwestern Caribbean.
This pattern will likely take the system near the coasts of El
Salvador or Guatemala later on Tuesday. There has been a slight
southeastward trend in the model guidance, and the NHC forecast is
nudged in that direction. After that time, the synoptic pattern is
unchanged with a strong cold front expected to move across Mexico
and the Gulf of Mexico, forcing the cyclone to reverse its course
and head southwestward away from land. The NHC track forecast is
again a little slower than the previous one at long range.
Confidence in the details of the track forecast remains low since
the forward speed of the cyclone and timing of the cold front will
make the difference in whether or not the system moves inland over
Central America or remains offshore.

If the low-level center can continue consolidating, then some
slow strengthening should begin later today. More significant
intensification is possible Monday assuming a central core can
develop, with almost all guidance showing the system near hurricane
strength on Tuesday. After that, strong vertical wind shear,
possible land interaction, and intrusions of dry air and stable air
will likely cause a weakening trend. Very little change was made
to the intensity forecast, which remains near the
corrected-consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and
urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain
along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,
through Wednesday.

2. The depression is expected to strengthen as it approaches
Guatemala and El Salvador, and tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be required for portions of those areas later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 11.0N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 11.2N 92.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 11.6N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 11.9N 91.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 12.2N 90.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 12.4N 89.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 11.8N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 10.7N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 9.5N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 291448
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 92.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in El Salvador and southern Guatemala should monitor the
progress of this system as watches will likely be required later
today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 92.8
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph
(4 km/h). The system is forecast to begin moving northeastward or
east-northeastward tonight, and it could be near the coast of El
Salvador or Guatemala on Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the system could be
near hurricane strength in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce storm
total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
in and near much of the Pacific coast of Central America, including
the country of El Salvador, through Wednesday. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach
portions of the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 291448
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1500 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.2N 92.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.6N 92.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.9N 91.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.2N 90.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.4N 89.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.8N 89.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 10.7N 92.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 9.5N 97.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 92.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 290834
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

The depression is not well organized this morning. The circulation
appears elongated east-west and deep convection is patchy and
lacking banding features. The Dvorak T-numbers are lower than they
were yesterday, but still generally support an initial intensity of
30 kt.

The system has been wobbling around since it developed yesterday,
but over the past 6 to 12 hours it has been generally moving slowly
north-northwestward, The models agree that the depression should
begin to move northeastward at a slow pace later today. The
northeastward motion should continue through Tuesday, taking the
system very near the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. After
that time, a strong cold front is expected to move across Mexico and
the Gulf of Mexico, and that should cause the cyclone to reverse its
course and head southwestward away from land. The NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous one and roughly
between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. It should be noted that
confidence in the details of the track forecast is low since the
forward speed of the cyclone and timing of the cold front will make
the difference in whether or not the system moves inland over
Central America or remains offshore.

Given the broad nature of the system currently, only slow
strengthening seems likely today. However, more steady
intensification is possible tonight through Tuesday while the
system remains over very warm SSTs and in favorable atmospheric
conditions. The cyclone will likely be near hurricane
strength when it is close to the coast of Guatemala and El
Salvador on Tuesday. After that, strong vertical wind shear,
possible land interaction, and intrusions of dry air and stable air
should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a
weakening trend. Only small changes were made to the previous NHC
intensity forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and
urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain
along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,
through Wednesday.

2. The depression is expected to strengthen as it approaches
Guatemala and El Salvador, and tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be required for portions of those areas later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 11.0N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 11.3N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 11.6N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 11.9N 91.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 12.4N 91.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 12.7N 90.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 12.3N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 11.0N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 9.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 290833
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 93.1W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in El Salvador and southern Guatemala should monitor the
progress of this system as watches will likely be required later
today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 93.1
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h). The system is forecast to begin moving northeastward by
tonight, and it could be near the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala
on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the system could be near
hurricane strength in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce storm
total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
in and near much of the Pacific coast of Central America, including
the country of El Salvador, through Wednesday. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach
portions of the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 290833
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 93.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 93.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 93.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 11.3N 93.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.6N 92.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.9N 91.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.4N 91.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.7N 90.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.3N 90.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 11.0N 92.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 9.3N 96.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 93.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 290242
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

The organization of the depression has not improved this evening.
The shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished and is mostly
confined to the northern and western portions of the circulation.
Recent satellite-derived wind data and microwave images suggest the
depression has not moved much since earlier today. Based on the
earlier scatterometer data, current structure, and a T2.0 subjective
Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The depression is currently within weak steering currents, and
little net motion is expected through Sunday while the system
meanders offshore of Central America. By early next week, the flow
associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea should steer the system generally northeastward
towards Central America. While the track models agree in principle
on this scenario, it remains unclear how close the cyclone will get
to the coast in 60-72 h and whether or not it will move inland.
Given this uncertainty, interests in Guatemala and El Salvador
should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as only small
track changes could result in greater land impacts. By the middle of
next week, the flow behind a cold frontal passage to the north
should push the cyclone southwestward and away from land. The
updated NHC track forecast lies between the previous prediction and
the latest multi-model consensus aids.

Given the current structure of the depression, only modest
strengthening is forecast in the near term. Once the system becomes
better organized, the 28-29 deg C waters and abundant mid-level
moisture should allow for more intensification in 24-48 h within a
weak to moderate shear environment. This is shown by most of the
intensity models, and the NHC forecast remains on the higher end of
the guidance envelope, closest to the GFS and HFIP corrected
consensus (HCCA). Later in the period, increasing deep-layer shear
and potential land interaction should result in some weakening,
although this portion of the forecast is more dependent on the
future track of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 10.6N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 10.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 11.2N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 11.5N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 12.1N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 12.8N 90.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 12.9N 89.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 10.5N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 9.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 290241
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
...INTERESTS IN EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA SHOULD MONITOR...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 92.8W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in El Salvador and southern Guatemala should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 92.8
West. The depression is nearly stationary, and little motion is
expected through Sunday. The system is forecast to begin moving
northeastward by Monday, and could approach the coast of El Salvador
or Guatemala on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
system could be near hurricane strength by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 290241
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 92.8W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 92.8W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 92.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.8N 92.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.2N 92.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.1N 91.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.8N 90.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.9N 89.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 10.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 9.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 92.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 282055
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

The very busy October in the eastern Pacific continues this
afternoon. Satellite images indicate that Invest 92E has re-formed
a large central dense overcast near the center with curved banding
features. Unlike yesterday, however, the low-level circulation has
become better defined, as indicated by ASCAT-B scatterometer
ambiguities from 1520Z, with a small closed low shown. With Dvorak
estimates of T2.0 from TAFB, this is indicative of organized deep
convection, and thus this system has become a tropical depression.
The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the non
rain-inflated scatterometer max winds of about that value.

There's been little net motion with this system during the last day
or so, and none is really expected during the next day or so with
light steering currents. A mid- to upper-level trough over the
northwestern Caribbean early next week is expected to draw the
depression northeastward towards Central America. The big question
is how close the system gets to land before ridging rebuilds after
the trough departs the region. Most of the global models move the
system quite close to Guatemala or El Salvador before being shunted
west-southwestward away from land, so this will be the official
forecast. This is a very uncertain forecast as only a one or two kt
speed difference during the next few days will have large
ramifications for any landfall chances.

The depression should be over warm waters in light or moderate shear
for the next few days. Most of the guidance show at least gradual
intensification in this pattern for 2-3 days, and the NHC intensity
forecast follows that trend, on the high side of the guidance
envelope. Around 72 h and beyond, a mix of land interaction and a
sharp increase in shear should cause weakening, and this is shown
below.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 10.5N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 10.7N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 10.9N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 11.6N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 12.3N 90.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 13.0N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 11.3N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 9.5N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 282055
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...INTERESTS IN EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA SHOULD MONITOR...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 92.7W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in El Salvador and southern Guatemala should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 92.7
West. The depression is stationary, and little motion is anticipated
this weekend. The system is forecast to move northeastward by
Monday, and could be approaching the coasts of El Salvador or
Guatemala on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 282055
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 92.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 92.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 92.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 10.7N 92.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 10.9N 92.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.6N 91.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.3N 90.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 11.3N 90.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 9.5N 94.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 92.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>