Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TAMMY-23
in Virgin Islands British, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Bermuda, Barbados, Dominica

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 290836
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023

During the past 18 to 24 hours, Tammy has only been maintaining a
small and disorganized patch of deep convection well to the
northeast of the fully exposed center. Accordingly, the Dvorak
classifications have been decreasing, and the latest estimate from
TAFB is a T1.0/2.0. Satellite images also show that the low-level
center has become elongated and is losing definition. Based on
these characteristics, Tammy no longer qualifies as a tropical
cyclone, and this is the last advisory on this system. The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

Tammy is moving eastward at 16 kt in the mid-latitude westerlies. A
fairly sharp turn to the south is expected to occur tonight followed
by a motion to the southwest on Monday and Tuesday as the
post-tropical cyclone moves around the east side of a building
subtropical ridge. Tammy is expected to slowly weaken due to
continued strong vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment, and it
will likely dissipate in a few days.

Additional and future information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 32.4N 53.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/1800Z 31.6N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0600Z 30.1N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1800Z 28.5N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 27.2N 46.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/1800Z 26.1N 48.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 290835
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023

...TAMMY NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 53.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy
was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 53.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 18 mph (30
km/h). A turn to the south is expected tonight, followed by a
motion to the southwest on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Tammy. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 290835
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 53.3W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 53.3W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 54.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.6N 50.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.1N 47.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.5N 46.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 27.2N 46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.1N 48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 53.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 290243
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

Tammy's second time as a tropical cyclone appears near its end.
While some sheared puffs of moderate convection have attempted to
re-form off to the northeast of an increasingly elongated
circulation center, this activity lacks sufficient organization to
maintain Tammy as a tropical cyclone. For now, advisories will be
continued in the event that there could be one final nocturnal burst
of deeper convection closer to the center. In the mean time,
satellite intensity estimates and recent ASCAT data suggest some
continued spin down from this afternoon, and the initial intensity
is set at 35 kt this advisory. If more organized convection does not
return soon, Tammy could become a post-tropical low as soon as
overnight, and likely during the day tomorrow as the storm succumbs
to the increasingly hostile high shear and dry mid-level air
environment.

Tammy is beginning to lose latitude, with the estimated motion now
east-southeast at 105/15 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, Tammy or its
remnant low should be primarily steered clockwise around an
amplifying ridge to the storm's north and west. This should result
in a further turn southeastward and then southward before the
low-level circulation opens up into a trough. The latest NHC
forecast is once again a bit faster than the prior forecast, but
lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 32.6N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 32.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 30.5N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z 27.5N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/1200Z 26.5N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 290241
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

...TAMMY'S SECOND TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARLY UP...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 55.2W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 55.2 West. Tammy is
moving toward the east-southeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and the
cyclone is expected to gradually turn southward before dissipating
by the middle part of next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected, and Tammy is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low as soon as tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 290241
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 55.2W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 55.2W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 56.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 48.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 55.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 282037
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

As anticipated, Tropical Storm Tammy has weakened slightly today.
The convection has waned in the vicinity of the low-level
circulation center, which is now completely exposed on visible
satellite imagery and largely devoid of convection. Current
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
continued to trend downward, and a blend of these estimates supports
a reduction of Tammy's initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory.

The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the prior
NHC forecast. It is possible that convection may return episodically
during the next day or so, but a combination of strong shear and a
dry mid-level airmass will likely preclude intensification
throughout the forecast period. Tammy is forecast to gradually
weaken over the next few days and become a remnant low early next
week. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast and
represents a blend of the prior forecast and the intensity consensus
guidance.

After accelerating earlier this morning, Tammy is now moving
steadily eastward at 90/13 kt. Beginning tonight, the tropical storm
is expected to gradually turn southeastward and then southward
during the next day or two as it tracks along the northern and
eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Early next week, Tammy and
its remnants are forecast to make a gradual turn to the southwest
before dissipating. The new NHC forecast is slightly faster than the
prior advisory and represents a blend of consensus aids and the
prior NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 33.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 33.0N 54.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 31.8N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 30.3N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 28.6N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/0600Z 27.4N 46.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 47.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 282036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

...TAMMY WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 57.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 57.0 West. Tammy is
moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h), and the tropical
storm is expected to gradually turn southward and eventually
southwestward as a remnant low early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Tammy is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 282036
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 57.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 57.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 58.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 33.0N 54.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.8N 50.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.3N 47.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.6N 46.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 27.4N 46.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.8N 47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 281449
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

Tammy has not changed much this morning. The impact of strong
westerly wind shear is evident, with an exposed low-level center
apparent in visible satellite imagery. Modest deep convection
remains confined to the eastern half of the circulation, and cloud
tops have continued to gradually warm. The subjective TAFB
satellite estimate of T3.0/45 kt and a blend of objective satellite
estimates continue to support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this
advisory.

Under the continued influence of strong shear for the next 48
hours, as well as a dry mid-level airmass approaching from the
northwest, Tammy is expected to continue weakening. Global and
regional models suggest that most of the deep convection will
diminish by late Sunday or Monday, at which time Tammy is forecast
to become a remnant low. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior
forecast and represents a blend of the prior forecast and intensity
consensus models.

Tammy has accelerated this morning and is now moving east-northeast
or 080/10 kt. The tropical storm is expected to continue eastward
and southeastward for the next day or so along the northern
periphery of a mid-level ridge. Early next week, Tammy and its
remnants are forecast to make a gradual turn toward the
south and southwest before dissipating. The new NHC forecast is
slightly faster than the prior advisory and represents a blend of
consensus aids HCCA and TVCN with the prior NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 33.3N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 33.1N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 32.3N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 30.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 29.2N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/0000Z 27.8N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1200Z 27.1N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 27.5N 51.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 281448
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

...TAMMY TURNING EASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 58.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 58.7 West. Tammy is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the southeast
tonight. Early next week, Tammy is forecast to turn southward and
eventually southwestward as a remnant low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Tammy is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect Bermuda
through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 281447
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 58.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 58.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 59.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 33.1N 56.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.3N 53.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.9N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.2N 48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.8N 48.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 27.1N 49.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 51.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 58.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 280845
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

Tammy continues to be a sheared system with limited convection this
morning. Cloud tops have been warming since last evening, with only
occasional burst near the center. A partial scatterometer pass that
arrived shortly after the previous advisory, depicted winds on the
eastern side of the system were 40-45 knots. This ASCAT data is in
good agreement with the latest TAFB satellite intensity estimate of
T3.0/45 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt
based on this data and the degraded satellite presentation.

Strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue over Tammy the
next few days, which should result in further weakening. While sea
surface temperatures are marginal, there is increasingly dry air
along the forecast track. The GFS and ECMWF model-simulated
satellite data indicate Tammy could be completely devoid of
convection within 36- 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast
is lower than the previous one, following the latest consensus aids.
Post-tropical remnant low status is now shown in 48 h, although this
could occur even sooner than forecast.

Tammy has turned northward and then northeastward overnight. The
long-term motion of Tammy is northeast at 50/6 kt. A faster eastward
to southeastward motion is forecast throughout the weekend as Tammy
moves around the northern and eastern sides of a mid-level ridge.
As the cyclone weakens and becomes more shallow it is forecast to
slow down and turn southward-southwestward early next week as the
ridge becomes positioned to its west. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous, and lies between the simple and
corrected consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 33.0N 60.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 33.0N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 32.6N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 31.7N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.4N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z 28.9N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0600Z 27.5N 50.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 27.9N 53.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 280844
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

...TAMMY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 60.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 60.1 West. Tammy is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This northeast
motion will continue through this afternoon, followed by a faster
eastward to east-southeastward motion tonight through Monday. On the
forecast track, Tammy will continue to move away from Bermuda today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next few days,
and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early
next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect Bermuda
through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 280843
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 60.1W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 300SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 60.1W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 61.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 33.0N 58.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.7N 53.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.4N 50.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.9N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 27.5N 50.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.9N 53.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 60.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 280236
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023

Strong southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Tammy tonight. Its
limited convection is confined to the northeastern portion of its
circulation, which is partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite
images. This shear has resulted in the vortex becoming vertically
tilted, with the mid-level center displaced to the northeast of the
low-level center in recent AMSR2 passive microwave images. Based on
these structural changes and the decreasing satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS, the initial intensity is lowered
to 50 kt.

The deep-layer shear is expected to persist over Tammy during the
next few days, which should result in weakening while the storm
moves over marginal SSTs. While the forecast track does bring the
center of Tammy over warmer waters by early next week, the much
drier and more convergent upper-level environment should make it
difficult for Tammy to sustain organized convection. In fact, GFS
and ECMWF model-simulated satellite data indicate Tammy could be
completely devoid of convection within the next 2-3 days. The
updated NHC forecast is lower than the previous one, following the
latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Post-tropical remnant low status is shown
in 72 h, although this could occur even sooner than forecast.

The long-term motion of Tammy is north-northwestward (335/4 kt), but
recent satellite images indicate the cyclone is now turning
northward as anticipated. A faster eastward to southeastward motion
is forecast over the weekend as Tammy moves around the northern and
eastern sides of a mid-level ridge. Then, the weakening cyclone is
forecast to slow down and turn southward on Monday as the ridge
becomes positioned to its west. No major changes were made to the
NHC track forecast, which still lies between the simple and
corrected consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 32.7N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 32.9N 60.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 32.6N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 31.9N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 30.5N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 29.1N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 28.2N 51.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 28.1N 52.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 280234
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 61.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 760SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 61.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 32.9N 60.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.6N 57.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.9N 55.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 52.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.1N 51.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.2N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 28.1N 52.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 61.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 280235
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023

...SHEARED TAMMY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 61.3W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 61.3 West. Tammy is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the north and northeast is expected through early Saturday, followed
by a faster eastward to east-southeastward motion on Sunday and
Monday. On the forecast track, Tammy will move away from Bermuda on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next few days, and
Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect Bermuda
through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 272034
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023

Tammy's cloud pattern hasn't changed much on satellite images since
earlier today. There has been some cooling of the convective cloud
tops to about -60 deg C near the center of circulation along with a
few banding features. There is limited upper-level outflow to the
south and east of the system. The current intensity is held at 55
kt in agreement with an objective ADT Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS.

Tammy is currently situated over SSTs of around 25 deg C in a
marginally moist mid-level air mass. The dynamical guidance
indicates a significant increase in vertical wind shear during the
next day or so. This should cause a gradual weakening trend to
commence soon. Later in the forecast period, although the ocean
waters under Tammy should get a little warmer, strong shear and
substantially drier air should cause continued weakening. The
official intensity forecast is above most of the model guidance, so
Tammy could weaken to a depression sooner than shown here.

Tammy is currently moving slowly northwestward at about 320/3
kt. The cyclone should soon turn to an eastward track and move
along the northern side of a subtropical ridge for a couple of
days. Later in the forecast period, Tammy is expected to turn
southward and move along the eastern side of a mid-level high. The
official track forecast lies between the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 32.5N 61.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 32.7N 60.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 32.7N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.3N 56.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 31.2N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 28.5N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 28.0N 51.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 27.5N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 272033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023

...TAMMY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The gale warning for Bermuda is discontinued. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Tammy.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 61.4 West. Tammy is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn to the
north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the east over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Tammy will begin to
move away from Bermuda Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds are expected in Bermuda through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 272033
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 61.4W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 700SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 61.4W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 61.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.7N 60.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.7N 59.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.3N 56.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.2N 53.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 28.0N 51.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 61.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 271443
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 27 2023

Tammy appears to have become separate from the frontal zone in
which it was formerly embedded. Satellite imagery shows that
moderately deep convection has developed in a fairly symmetrical
pattern near the center, and there are also convective bands
surrounding the center. This change in structure indicates that
the system has evolved back into a tropical cyclone, so advisories
are being re-initiated on Tammy. Extrapolation of earlier
scatterometer data suggest that the current intensity is around 55
kt.

Over the next few days, the atmospheric and oceanic environment
for Tammy should result in gradual weakening. The cyclone is
currently over marginal SSTs, and westerly vertical wind shear is
likely to increase. Later in the forecast period, Tammy will
probably move over slightly warmer waters, but dry air and strong
shear will likely cause continued weakening. The official
intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance and
shows the cyclone weakening to a depression in 5 days, although
given the environment this may occur sooner.

The storm is drifting slowly northwestward, with a motion near
320/3 kt. Tammy should turn eastward in 12 to 24 hours under the
influence of mid-level westerly flow on the north side of a
subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period, the system is
expected to turn southeastward and southward on the eastern side of
a subtropical anticyclone and west of a broad trough over the
eastern Atlantic. The official forecast is similar to, but
somewhat slower than, the model consensus prediction and roughly in
the middle of the track guidance suite.

Gusty winds are expected in Bermuda through tonight, and a gale
warning is in effect for that island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 32.2N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 32.4N 61.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 32.7N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 32.5N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 32.0N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 30.7N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 29.0N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 27.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 28.0N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 271442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 27 2023

...TAMMY REDEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 61.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A gale warning is in effect for Bermuda. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Tammy.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 61.1 West. Tammy is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn to the
north is expected tonight followed by a turn to the east over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Tammy will begin to
move away from Bermuda Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day
or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds to near gale force are expected in Bermuda
through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 271441
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 61.1W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 80SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 760SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 61.1W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 61.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 32.4N 61.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 32.7N 59.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.7N 51.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 27.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 260843
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Thu Oct 26 2023

Tammy appears to have completed its transition to a post-tropical
cyclone, merging with the nearby front. The cloud pattern has become
more comma shaped, with a long linear convective band, and is no
longer producing deep convection near the center. The cyclone is
now frontal but likely still has a warm core, indicating that it is
a warm seclusion-type of extratropical cyclone. Despite the
transition, it remains a strong cyclone, and the initial intensity
is 75 kt, based on current intensity satellite estimates.

The cyclone has slowed down and made a northward turn overnight, and
recently the system is turning more north-northwestward. The
estimated long-term motion is 355/10 kt. Over the next day or so,
Tammy is forecast to slow down and move generally northwestward to
west-northwestward. Beyond 36 h there continues to be high
uncertainty in the track forecast, with no more clarity from the
latest global model runs. The global models continue to have
enormous spread, and ensemble solutions that diverge in opposite
directions. Given the uncertainty, there is little change from the
previous forecast at this time range.

Although post-tropical, Tammy remains a powerful cyclone. In the
near term, the increasing shear and drier air associated with a
deep-layer trough to the west should continue to cause convection to
dissipate, and the system to weaken over the next few days. Global
model fields indicate Tammy could shed its frontal structure by 36
h. A reduction in wind shear is forecast soon thereafter, and
convection could redevelop near Tammy's center in about 2-3 days
while it moves over 25-26C sea surface temperatures. Though it is
not explicitly forecast, there is some potential based on the GFS
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery that Tammy could reacquire
tropical characteristics this weekend or early next week. The
chances of the system transitioning back to a tropical cyclone will
be evaluated in routine Tropical Weather Outlooks.

This is the last NHC advisory. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 30.5N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 26/1800Z 31.2N 59.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0600Z 31.5N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1800Z 31.9N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/0600Z 32.3N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/1800Z 32.4N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 29/0600Z 32.4N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/0600Z 32.3N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 31/0600Z 32.2N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 260842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Thu Oct 26 2023

...TAMMY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL, BUT IT IS STILL PRODUCING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...
... THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 58.4W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy
was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 58.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19
km/h). The system should begin to move northwestward later this
morning, followed by a slower west-northwestward motion on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swell will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the
northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 260841
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0900 UTC THU OCT 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 58.4W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 100SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 600SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 58.4W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 58.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 31.2N 59.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.9N 62.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.3N 62.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.4N 61.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.4N 60.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 32.3N 59.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 32.2N 58.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 58.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 260241
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 25 2023

The extratropical transition of Tammy appears to be well underway.
The eye is no longer apparent in satellite images, and deep
convection has eroded over the western portion of the circulation. A
dry slot has become evident between the small area of convection
near Tammy's center and a long, linear convective band well to its
east and southeast. Based on the lower satellite intensity estimates
this evening, the initial intensity is brought down to 80 kt for
this advisory.

If it hasn't already, Tammy is expected to completely merge with a
nearby front soon. In the near term, the increasing shear and drier
air associated with a deep-layer trough to the west should result in
a significant disruption of Tammy's convection. However, Tammy will
remain a powerful cyclone even after it becomes post-tropical, with
an expanding outer wind field during this time. After the rapid warm
seclusion process is completed, global model fields indicate Tammy
could shed its frontal structure by 36 h. A reduction in wind shear
is forecast soon thereafter, and convection could redevelop near
Tammy's center in 2-3 days while it moves over 25-26C waters. Though
it is not explicitly forecast, there is some potential based on the
GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery that Tammy could reacquire
tropical characteristics this weekend or early next week.

The long-term motion of Tammy is 015 degrees/17 kt, but more
recently the cyclone appears to be turning northward as expected.
Over the next day or so, Tammy is forecast to slow down and move
generally northwestward. From there, the global and regional models
offer little clarity regarding the future track of Tammy, with
extremely divergent solutions beyond about 36 h. The track
differences appear to be related to the extent of Tammy's
interaction with a cutoff mid-level low that develops to the
southwest of Tammy later this week. Several of the global models
(ECMWF, UKMET, CMC) show this feature moving westward and remaining
far enough away from Tammy that little interaction occurs. These
models move Tammy generally eastward through early next week. The
latest GFS and regional model runs show Tammy rotating around this
mid-level feature and moving much farther west and southwest over
the southwestern Atlantic. The spread between the 96-h GFS and ECMWF
forecast positions is almost 1400 n mi, making the longer-term track
forecast highly uncertain. Given this enormous spread, little change
was made to the official forecast tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 29.9N 57.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 30.7N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0000Z 31.3N 59.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1200Z 31.6N 60.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/0000Z 31.9N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/1200Z 32.1N 61.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 29/0000Z 32.2N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/0000Z 32.4N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 31/0000Z 32.5N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 260240
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 25 2023

...TAMMY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL FRONTAL LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 57.8W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 57.8 West. Tammy is moving
toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A northward to
northwestward turn is expected overnight, followed by a slower
west-northwestward motion on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next few
days. Tammy is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone
early on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swell will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the
northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 260239
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0300 UTC THU OCT 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 57.8W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 450SW 570NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 57.8W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 57.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.7N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.3N 59.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 110SE 110SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.6N 60.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.9N 62.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 32.1N 61.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.2N 61.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 32.4N 60.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 32.5N 59.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 57.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 252051
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Wed Oct 25 2023

Tammy is beginning to interact with a front to its north. The eye
has lost some of its definition as the northern eyewall slowly
erodes. Outflow is now limited to the southern and eastern portions
of the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates have fallen since the last advisory. Final T-numbers from
SAB and TAFB are both T4.5 and ADT is down to T4.2. Given the recent
degradation in satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been
lowered to 85 kt.

It appears that Tammy has moved out of the region with favorable
upper-level dynamics. Strong upper-level winds and surrounding dry
air are expected to steadily weaken the system through the forecast
period. Model guidance shows that the hurricane should become
entangled with the frontal feature to its north and transition into
an extratropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. By 48 hours, the
global models depict Tammy occluding and shedding its front.
Therefore, the most recent NHC forecast shows the system as a
post-tropical cyclone instead of extratropical beginning at day 2.
There is a possibility that Tammy could regain tropical or
subtropical status as the vortex meanders over sufficiently warm
ocean waters during days 2 and 3.

Tammy is still moving northeastward, but model guidance insists that
the hurricane will make a turn to the north shortly. This is
followed by a northwestward turn with a slower forward speed by
Thursday. By Friday, Tammy is expected to meander over the
northwestern Atlantic in the light steering currents between two
building ridges over the eastern Atlantic and southeastern United
States. The official NHC track forecast shows Tammy slowly turning
back to the east by the weekend. However, more model guidance is
showing a faster turn to the east resulting in a large spread in the
track guidance envelope. The current forecast is on the western edge
of the track solutions and is closest to the GFS. Further
adjustments may be needed if these trends continue.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 28.0N 57.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 29.5N 58.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 30.5N 59.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0600Z 31.1N 60.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1800Z 31.5N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0600Z 31.8N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/1800Z 32.1N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 29/1800Z 32.5N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/1800Z 32.8N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 252050
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Wed Oct 25 2023

...TAMMY INTERACTING WITH A NEARBY FRONT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 57.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 57.9 West.Tammy is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward turn is
expected tonight, followed by a turn to the west-northwest by Friday
with a decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected for the next few
days. Tammy is forecast to become a powerful extratropical cyclone
by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
Bermuda, the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 252050
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 57.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 57.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 58.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.5N 58.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.5N 59.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.1N 60.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.5N 61.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 31.8N 61.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.1N 61.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 32.5N 61.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 32.8N 61.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 57.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/R. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 251454
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 25 2023

Tammy has improved its satellite presentation this morning. Since
the previous advisory, the hurricane briefly had a symmetric eye in
the satellite infrared and microwave imagery. A nearby deep-layer
trough appears to be limiting the western portion of Tammy's
outflow. The subjective and objective intensity estimates have
increased to 89 to 92 kt, and therefore the initial intensity has
been raised to 90 kt.

The upper-level environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the next few hours with enhanced 200 mb divergence
associated with the aforementioned trough. After 12 hours, the
divergence is expected to decrease and strong shear, cooling SSTs,
and surrounding dry subsident air should gradually weaken the
hurricane. Model guidance suggests Tammy will undergo extratropical
transition by Thursday and as a result, the tropical-storm-force
wind field is expected to expand. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and follows the various consensus
aids.

Tammy is moving northeastward at about 11 kt, within the flow
between a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Later today, the
cyclone is expected to turn northward followed by a
north-northwestward to northwestward turn on Thursday with a slower
forward speed. By Friday, Tammy is expected to meander over the
northwestern Atlantic in the light steering currents between two
building ridges over the eastern Atlantic and southeastern United
States. The 3- to 5-day steering flow forecast is rather uncertain
and as a result there is a large spread in the track model guidance
after 48 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is east of the
previous prediction and favors the left side of the guidance
envelope.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 26.6N 59.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 28.2N 58.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 29.8N 59.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 30.5N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z 31.0N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0000Z 31.2N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1200Z 31.4N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1200Z 31.7N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1200Z 31.9N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 251454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 25 2023

...TAMMY STRENGTHENS FURTHER WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 59.3W
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 59.3 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northward turn is
expected later today, followed by a slower northwestward to
west-northwestward motion on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected for the next few
days. Tammy is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone
by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
Bermuda, the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 251453
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1500 UTC WED OCT 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 59.3W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 59.3W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 59.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.2N 58.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.8N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.5N 60.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 61.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.2N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 31.4N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 31.7N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 31.9N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 250841
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Wed Oct 25 2023

Satellite data indicate Tammy has strengthened this morning.
Proxy-vis and infrared imagery depict a ragged eye has developed
with deep convection wrapping around the center. There has been no
microwave imagery this morning, but earlier SSMI/S and GMI
images showed a tight inner core. The subjective Dvorak final-T
intensity estimates have increased this cycle with a T5.0 and T4.5
from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Given the improved satellite
imagery and using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity
is raised to 85 kt for this advisory.

Although vertical wind shear is analyzed to have increased over
the hurricane, the system is strengthening beneath upper-level
divergence associated with a deep-layer trough over the western
Atlantic. Models suggest some additional strengthening is possible
over the next 12 hours or so, which is reflected in the NHC
intensity forecast. Tammy is then expected to merge with a cold
front, which is currently analyzed by TAFB and OPC just northwest of
the system. Tammy is expected to undergo an extratropical
transition, with this transition forecast to be complete within 24
hours. As this transition occurs Tammy's wind field will expand as
it becomes a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone. Global models
are in fairly good agreement that the cyclone will then weaken
throughout the remainder of the forecast period. There is some
potential it could shed its frontal structure this weekend, but for
now the model-simulated satellite imagery does not show much
increase in convection during that time.

Tammy is moving northeastward at an estimated motion of 45 degrees
at 9 knots, within the flow between a deep-layer trough over the
western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.
Tammy is expected to turn northward later today, then move slowly
northwestward in 2-3 days within weaker steering currents. The
long-range forecast remains uncertain, with not much run-to-run
model consistency and ensemble solutions that move in opposite
directions. Given the uncertainty, there is little change from the
previous forecast at this time range, with the NHC forecast track
showing the cyclone slowing and meandering through the end of the
the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 25.6N 60.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 27.0N 59.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 28.9N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/1800Z 30.0N 60.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0600Z 30.6N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/1800Z 31.0N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0600Z 31.3N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0600Z 31.2N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0600Z 31.0N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 250840
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Wed Oct 25 2023

...TAMMY STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 60.2W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 60.2 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward turn is
expected later today, followed by a slower northwestward motion on
Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today,
followed by weakening through late this week. Tammy is forecast to
become a powerful post-tropical cyclone by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 250840
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0900 UTC WED OCT 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 60.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 60.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.0N 59.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.9N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.0N 60.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 30.6N 61.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.0N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 31.3N 62.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 31.2N 63.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 31.0N 63.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 60.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 250239
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 24 2023

Satellite data indicate Tammy has strengthened tonight. Deep
convection has increased near and over the center of the hurricane
during the past several hours, resulting in a cold and expanding
central dense overcast with intermittent glimpses of a ragged eye.
Recent SSMIS and GMI passive microwave images show a tighter inner
core compared to earlier today, with a mid-level eyewall that mostly
wraps around the center. The subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB
and TAFB have risen to T4.5/77 kt and T4.0/65 kt, respectively, with
similar increases in the various UW-CIMSS objective estimates. Thus,
the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory.

Despite strengthening upper-level winds over Tammy, increasing
upper-level divergence associated with a deep-layer trough over the
western Atlantic could support some additional intensification in
the near term, as shown by the GFS and some of the regional models.
Given recent trends, the updated NHC intensity forecast is raised at
12-24 h to account for this potential. Then, Tammy is expected to
merge with a cold front currently analyzed to the northwest of the
hurricane. This extratropical transition is forecast to be completed
by 36 h, with an expansion of Tammy's wind field as it becomes a
hurricane-force extratropical cyclone. Thereafter, the global models
show the frontal cyclone weakening through the rest of the period.
There is some potential it could shed its frontal structure this
weekend, but for now the model-simulated satellite imagery does not
show much increase in convection during that time.

Tammy is moving northeastward (50 degrees/8 kt) within the flow
between a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Tammy is expected to
turn northward during the next day or so as it becomes captured by
the upper trough. The updated NHC forecast lies slightly right of
the previous one in the first 24 h, mostly based on the more
northeastward initial position. Then, the cyclone is forecast to
move more slowly northwestward in 2-3 days within weaker steering
currents. The long-range track forecast is highly uncertain, with
diverging global and ensemble model solutions that move the
shallower cyclone in opposite directions. Given the above-average
uncertainty, it seems prudent to make little change to this portion
of the track forecast at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 24.9N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 26.1N 59.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 28.1N 59.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 29.6N 59.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 30.5N 60.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/1200Z 30.9N 61.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 31.3N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 31.4N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z 31.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 250237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 24 2023

...TAMMY STRENGTHENS OVER OPEN WATERS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 60.7W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 60.7 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward turn is
expected on Wednesday, followed by a slower northwestward motion on
Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through
early Wednesday, followed by weakening through late this week. Tammy
is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 250236
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 60.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 60.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 61.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.1N 59.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.1N 59.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.6N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.5N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.9N 61.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.3N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 31.4N 63.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 60.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 242039
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
2100 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 61.7W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 61.7W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.6N 60.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 59.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.2N 59.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.4N 60.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.1N 61.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.6N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 32.0N 64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 242041
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Tue Oct 24 2023

There have not been many changes in the satellite appearance of
Tammy since the previous advisory. Bursts of convection continue to
wrap around the estimated surface center. An AMSR2 microwave
satellite pass at 1657 UTC showed a closed low-level circulation.
While a couple of ASCAT passes showed surface winds less than
hurricane strength, the resolution of the instrument likely cannot
capture the peak winds in Tammy's small inner core. The initial
intensity is held at 65 kt, closest to the TAFB satellite intensity
estimate, though this could be generous.

Simulated satellite imagery suggests Tammy could strengthen slightly
within a day or so when the hurricane enters a region of enhanced
upper-level divergence. Beyond this time frame, strong
southwesterly shear, dry mid-level relative humidities, and cooling
sea surface temperatures should cause Tammy to steadily weaken.
Global models now indicate the hurricane should transition into a
gale-force extratropical cyclone by 48 h, and this is reflected in
the official intensity prediction.

Tammy is moving to the northeast at about 7 kt. A mid-latitude
trough should turn the hurricane north-northeastward and northward
in a day or so. By Thursday, Tammy should bend to the northwest and
slow down within the light steering currents between two ridges. A
gradual westward turn is expected by the end of the forecast period.
The latest NHC track prediction is slightly to the south of the
previous advisory, and forward speed in the long-term forecast has
been slowed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 24.6N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 25.6N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 27.5N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 29.2N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.4N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0600Z 31.1N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1800Z 31.6N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1800Z 32.0N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/1800Z 32.0N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 242040
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Tue Oct 24 2023

...TAMMY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 61.7W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 61.7 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north
at a slower forward speed is forecast to begin on Thursday, followed
by a bend to the northwest on Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so,
followed by steady weakening. Tammy is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 241442
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 24 2023

The hurricane has held steady this morning. Satellite imagery
depicts deep bursts of convection mainly to the north of the center
and a large curved band around the northern and eastern portions of
the system. The most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite estimate is still
T4.0/65kt, and the initial intensity remains at 65 kt for this
advisory.

Tammy is moving northeastward with an estimated motion of 035/6 kt.
A mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic should steer
the hurricane more northward in a day or so. By day 2, most of the
global model guidance shows Tammy turning westward and slowing down
between two mid-level ridges through the remainder of the forecast
period. Only minor adjustments have been made in the latest NHC
track prediction, which lies in the middle of the track guidance
envelope.

Intensity guidance continues to suggest Tammy should slightly
strengthen in the near term. As the hurricane approaches the
mid-latitude trough, it should enter a region with enhanced
upper-level divergence, and thus strengthen. After about a day or
so, strong deep-layer vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface
temperatures should gradually weaken the cyclone. Tammy is still
expected to become a gale-force extratropical cyclone by 60 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 24.2N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 25.0N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 26.7N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 28.6N 59.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 30.1N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 31.2N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z 31.8N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1200Z 32.5N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/1200Z 32.6N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 241441
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 24 2023

...HURRICANE TAMMY HOLDS STEADY WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 62.3W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 62.3 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north
at a slower forward speed is forecast to begin on Thursday,
followed by a bend to the northwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so
followed by steady weakening. Tammy is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 241441
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1500 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 62.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 62.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 62.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.0N 61.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.7N 59.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.6N 59.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.1N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.2N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.8N 61.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.5N 63.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 32.6N 65.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 240848
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Tue Oct 24 2023

Tammy's satellite depiction has improved slightly compared to the
sheared convective pattern from yesterday evening. The latest
infrared satellite imagery depicts convective bursts are once again
wrapping around the southern portion of the system. Earlier
microwave imagery showed a well organized low-to mid-level
circulation. The most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite estimate held
steady at T4.0/65kt, which supports maintaining an initial intensity
of 65 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is currently moving northeastward, and should
continue this motion for the next day or two. A mid-latitude trough
approaching the system from the northwest will cause Tammy to begin
to move more northward during the middle of the forecast period. It
is after this point, the model guidance becomes increasingly
divergent. Models are split on whether another mid-latitude trough
will cause the system to accelerate east to northeastward, or have
Tammy not being picked up by this trough and move the system
westward to southwestward under a building mid-level ridge. The GFS
has trended towards the west-southwest track scenario, closer to
the ECMWF. Therefore, the NHC forecast track, which already favored
the ECMWF solution, remains similar to the previous advisory and is
close to a blend of GFS and ECMWF.

There is considerably better agreement among most of the
intensity guidance, which indicates slight strengthening is possible
during the next day or two, as Tammy interacts with an upper-level
trough. After 48 hours the system should begin to weaken and
start to transition into a post-tropical cyclone. The latest model
simulated satellite imagery depicts that this process is expected
to be complete in about 60 h, though Tammy will likely continue to
produce gale-to storm-force winds for several days even after this
transition occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 23.7N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 24.5N 61.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 25.9N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 27.9N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 29.5N 58.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 31.0N 59.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0600Z 31.7N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0600Z 32.4N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/0600Z 32.8N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240847
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Tue Oct 24 2023

...TAMMY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 62.8 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north
at a slower forward speed is forecast to begin on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two.
Weakening is expected after that. Tammy is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 240847
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0900 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 62.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 62.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 63.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.5N 61.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.9N 60.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.9N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.5N 58.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 31.0N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.7N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 32.4N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N 64.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 62.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240231
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 23 2023

...TAMMY STILL A HURRICANE AS IT HEADS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 63.1W
ABOUT 655 MI...1060 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 63.1 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north
at a slower forward speed is forecast to begin on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two.
Weakening is expected after that. Tammy is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches)
based on data from a NOAA Saildrone.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 240231
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 63.1W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 63.1W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 63.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.6N 62.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.7N 60.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 59.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.5N 58.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 58.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.1N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 130SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 32.0N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 32.5N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 63.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 232039
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Mon Oct 23 2023

Moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear seems to be disrupting
Tammy's circulation. Deep convection is being pulled northward away
from the estimated low-level center and mid-level dry air is working
its way around the southern side of the cyclone. Satellite
intensity estimate have decreased this cycle to 55 and 65 kt from
SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity has therefore
been lowered to 65 kt. While ASCAT missed the majority of the
hurricane's core, it did show winds on the western portion of the
circulation have decreased and the radii have been adjusted inward
accordingly.

Tammy is moving north-northeastward at 6 kt. A turn toward the
northeast is forecast shortly as Tammy is steered by a mid-level
ridge centered over the central subtropical Atlantic and the flow
ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the western Atlantic. Between
48-60 h, the model solutions begin to bifurcate. The ECMWF turns
the hurricane northward and then westward by the end of the forecast
period. The GFS and regional models tend to turn Tammy toward the
north and northeastward by day 5. The official forecast still
favors the ECMWF forecast and is similar to the previous advisory.

Models suggest that environmental conditions will be relatively
unfavorable. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to
increase and surrounding mid-level moisture to decrease through most
of the forecast period. However, in a day or so, when the hurricane
begins to interacts with the trough to its west, upper-level
divergence could enhance convection and cause some strengthening
through about 48 h. Tammy is then expected to gradually weaken and
complete its transition into an extratropical cyclone by day 3. The
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction, with a
slightly lower peak intensity of 75 kt.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 22.3N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 23.0N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 25.3N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.8N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 28.9N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 30.3N 59.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1800Z 31.7N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1800Z 32.5N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 232039
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Mon Oct 23 2023

...TAMMY TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 63.6 West. Tammy is moving
toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected to by Tuesday and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday. On Thursday a turn back toward the
north and north-northwest is forecast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
so followed by steady weakening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent NOAA
Saildrone data is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 232038
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 63.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 63.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 63.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.0N 61.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.3N 60.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.8N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.9N 58.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 105SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.3N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 140SE 130SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 31.7N 62.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.5N 65.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 231446
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 23 2023

Tammy appears to be holding steady in spite of the moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear. There have been regular bursts
of deep convection over the center and a fragmented band around the
eastern portion of the circulation. The latest intensity is held at
70 kt to represent a blend of the subjective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, which were 77 kt and 65 kt,
respectively.

The hurricane is moving northward at 005/6 kt. Tammy should
continue to turn north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow
between a mid-latitude trough over the western Atlantic and a
mid-level ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic. Beyond 60 h,
there is still a significant spread in the model guidance. Most of
the regional models and the GFS model forecast Tammy to continue
northward around the western side of the ridge. A different cluster
of model solutions, including the ECMWF, merge Tammy with a cutoff
low that forms from the trough and turns the cyclone northwestward
to westward. The latest NHC track forecast favors the latter
scenario and has been nudged slightly north of the previous
prediction.

Southwesterly shear appears to be influencing Tammy's structure.
The vertical wind shear is expected to persist and likely increase
in about 36 h, forcing some dry mid-level air into the cyclone's
circulation. These environmental conditions should lead to gradual
weakening. Model guidance predicts that Tammy should undergo
structural changes over the next couple of days as it interacts with
the aforementioned cutoff low. The latest official intensity
forecast now shows Tammy becoming extratropical in 72 hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rain from Tammy will remain possible over the British
Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands through today. This rainfall may
produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 21.9N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 22.7N 63.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 23.6N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 24.5N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 25.8N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 27.3N 58.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 29.1N 58.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1200Z 31.2N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1200Z 32.4N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 230850
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Mon Oct 23 2023

Tammy's structure overnight appears to have undergone an evolution.
After maintaining a small compact presentation for several days,
Tammy's convective structure has broadened out, with convective
bands taking on a more fragmented appearance around the center. Some
of this change could be related to some dry air that may have been
entrained into the circulation earlier tonight. On the other hand,
the upper-level outflow has expanded some to the south and west,
suggesting a brief respite in the shear that has been affecting
Tammy. Data from the last pass of the NOAA-P3 reconnaissance mission
suggested the winds were perhaps a bit lower, while both subjective
and objective satellite estimates were also somewhat lower than
earlier. The initial intensity was nudged downward to 70 kt this
advisory.

Tammy has made the long awaited turn northward, with the estimated
motion now at 355/9 kt. A continued turn to the north-northeast and
northeast is anticipated over the next 24-36 hours as the hurricane
briefly becomes steered in between a mid-latitude trough passing by
to its north, and an established mid-level ridge located to its
east. The track guidance is at least in good agreement on this track
evolution for the first 48-60 h. After that time, a piece of the
aforementioned trough is expected to cutoff and dig southward to the
west of Tammy. How the tropical cyclone reacts to this synoptic
feature will likely be dependent on its vertical depth, and its
location when the trough interacts with it. If anything, the track
guidance spread is even larger than it was a few cycles ago, with a
range of solutions from a quick pivot back west (the HAFS-A/B runs)
after 60 h versus a continued northeastward track without much of a
leftward turn at all (the latest GFS forecast). Overall the track
consensus aids have shifted a bit more poleward before Tammy turns
westward, and the NHC track was shifted a little further east and
north compared to the prior one. However, this track forecast
remains of low confidence and is highly uncertain, which is best
exemplified by the 00 UTC ECMWF ensemble guidance, which shows more
than a 1500 mile southwest-to-northeast spread in the various member
solutions in 5 days.

Tammy's somewhat broader structure could delay some intensification
in the immediate short-term, but most of the intensity guidance
remains adamant about some strengthening occuring in the next 24-36
h as the hurricane remains over 28-29 C sea-surface-temperatures and
moderate wind shear between 15-20 kt. However after 48 hours,
vertical wind shear is expected to rapidly increase out of the
southwest which should begin to weaken the tropical cyclone. This
forecast remains near or just a bit below the consensus aids HCCA
and IVCN during this time frame. After 72 h, The cutoff trough
digging in to the west of Tammy will likely impart some cool and
very dry mid-latitude air into the storm's core, initiating
extratropical transition as deep central convection is also stripped
away by the increased shear. This process could be completed in 96
h, especially if Tammy moves further north like the GFS and ECMWF
models are forecasting. However, there also remains some uncertainty
about this evolution, as a further south track before the storm
pivots west could allow it to remain over warmer sea-surface
temperatures and potentially prevent extratropical transition from
completing, as suggested by the HAFS-A/B runs.

Even as Tammy moves away from the Leeward islands, a prominent
feeder band has formed over these islands, likely prolonging the
heavy rain threat for these areas through this morning.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rain from Tammy will remain possible over the British
Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands, and northern Windward Islands
through this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 21.4N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 22.2N 63.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 23.2N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 24.1N 61.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 25.1N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 26.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 28.0N 58.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 30.4N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0600Z 32.0N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 230844
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Mon Oct 23 2023

...TAMMY TURNING NORTHWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURING OVER PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Tammy is now moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast or northeast is expected to begin later today
and continue into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple
of days followed by weakening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall across portions of the British Virgin Islands, the
Leeward Islands, and the northern Windward Islands through this
morning, bringing storm total maximum amounts to 12 inches in the
Leeward Islands. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 230843
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0900 UTC MON OCT 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.2N 62.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.1N 61.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.1N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.5N 59.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 100SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.0N 58.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 140SE 130SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.4N 59.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 32.0N 62.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 230237
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

Satellite images show that Tammy has not become better organized
over the past several hours. In fact, the Central Dense Overcast
(CDO) has become more fragmented in appearance and the center
appears to be near the southern portion of the CDO. There are
however a couple of prominent convective bands over the eastern
portion of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is restricted over
the southern semicircle of the system, suggesting the influence of
southerly vertical wind shear. SFMR-observed surface winds from a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission into
Tammy support a current intensity of 70-75 kt, so the advisory
intensity estimate is unchanged.

A center position estimate from the aircraft indicates that the
motion remains northwestward, or 325/8 kt at this time. The
cyclone should turn northward to northeastward over the next 72
hours or so while moving around the western side of a mid-level
subtropical high. Later in the forecast period, Tammy should begin
to interact with a cyclonic circulation that cuts off from an
eastward-moving mid-latitude trough over the western Atlantic.
This should cause the system to turn westward around the northern
side of the larger circulation in 3-5 days. There continues to be
a fairly large spread in the track guidance in this time frame,
however.

The dynamical guidance indicates that Tammy will be in an
environment of significant south-southwesterly vertical wind shear
for the next few days. This negative influence could be
counteracted somewhat by the presence of a moist and unstable
air mass along with warm ocean waters. Therefore some slight
strengthening is still predicted, along the lines of the
Decay-SHIPS model. This is also similar to the previous official
intensity forecast. By day 4, Tammy should begin to merge with a
baroclinic zone and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and
ECMWF models depict a frontal appearance. Therefore the system is
forecast to have become extratropical by 96 hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rain from Tammy will remain possible over the British
Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands, and northern Windward Islands into
Monday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 20.8N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 21.5N 63.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 22.5N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 23.2N 62.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 24.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 25.3N 60.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 26.6N 59.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 29.6N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 230236
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

...HEAVY RAINS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 64.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 64.0 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected late tonight, followed by a north-northeast or
northeast motion on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall across portions of the British Virgin Islands, the
Leeward Islands, and the northern Windward Islands into Monday
morning, bringing storm total maximum amounts to 12 inches in the
Leeward Islands. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 230236
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 64.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 64.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 63.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 63.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.5N 63.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.2N 62.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.3N 60.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.6N 59.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.6N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 222035
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

The core of Tammy continues to pull away from the northern Leeward
Islands, but a trailing area of heavy rain continues to affect
portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. The NOAA Hurricane
Hunters found maximum 750-mb flight-level winds of 83 kt and peak
SFMR winds of around 70 kt. In addition, the minimum pressure has
fallen to 988 mb. These data support nudging the initial intensity
up to 75 kt. Tammy continues to have a small central dense
overcast pattern in satellite images with very cold cloud tops
evident near the center. An ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago was
helpful in adjusting the 34- and 50-kt wind radii, and it confirmed
that Tammy remains a relatively compact tropical cyclone.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 8 kt on the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic.
A turn to the north is forecast to occur late tonight, followed by a
northeastward motion beginning Monday night when a large-scale
trough over the northeast U.S. shifts eastward, eroding the ridge.
After that time, the models show the trough cutting off and merging
with Tammy, which will likely cause a sharp turn to the left. The
models have come in slightly better agreement in the overall
scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track
forecast.

Tammy will likely fluctuate in strength during the next few days
while it remains over warm SSTs and in a moderate wind shear
environment. After Tammy merges with the trough, dry air
entrainment and stronger shear should cause weakening and likely
lead to extratropical transition in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle
of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward
Islands through tonight. This rainfall may produce isolated flash
and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.9N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.9N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 22.0N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 22.8N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.6N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 24.4N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 25.8N 60.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 28.9N 60.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1800Z 30.7N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 222034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

...HEAVY RAINS LINGER ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 63.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 63.4 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected late tonight, followed by a north-northeast or
northeast motion on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with storm total maximum amounts of
12 inches

Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches, storm total
maximum 6 inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum storm total amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 222034
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
2100 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 63.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 63.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.9N 63.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 63.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.8N 62.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.4N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 60.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.9N 60.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 30.7N 64.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 63.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 221435
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

Tammy is slowly pulling away from the northern Leeward Islands and
all of the hurricane warnings were dropped at the 1200 UTC
intermediate advisory. However, there is still a trailing area of
showers and thunderstorms that will likely cause heavy rain across
portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands throughout the day.
The hurricane is exhibiting a central dense overcast pattern in
satellite images with very cold cloud tops persisting near the
center. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
investigating Tammy, and based on the data they have collected, the
initial intensity is nudged downward slightly to 70 kt. Tammy
remains a fairly compact and asymmetric tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds only extending up to
20 n mi and 120 n mi from the center, respectively. The wind radii
are particularly small on the southwest side of the system.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 8 kt on the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic.
A turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight, followed by a
northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday when a large-scale
trough over the northeast U.S. shifts eastward, eroding the ridge.
After that time, the models show the trough cutting off and merging
with Tammy, which could cause a turn to the left. Although the
models are in better agreement than they were yesterday, there is
still a considerable amount of spread at long range due to
differences in the synoptic pattern and model predicted intensity
of Tammy. Only small changes were made to the previous NHC track
forecast, and it continues to lie close to the HCCA guidance.

The environmental factors for Tammy appear to be mixed. The system
is expected to remain over warm SSTs during at least the next few
days, but it will also be in an environment of moderate vertical
wind shear. Therefore, fluctuations in strength seem likely over
the next few days. After Tammy merges with the trough, dry air
entrainment and stronger shear should cause some weakening and
likely lead to extratropical transition in 4 to 5 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and near
the middle of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward
Islands through tonight. This rainfall may produce isolated flash
and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.1N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 20.1N 63.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 63.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 22.3N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 23.0N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 23.6N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 27.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 30.0N 63.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 221434
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

...TAMMY PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 63.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 63.0 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion is expected today. A turn toward the north is expected
tonight, followed by a north-northeast or northeast motion on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with storm total maximum amounts of
12 inches

Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches, storm total
maximum 6 inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum storm total amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 221434
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1500 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 63.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 63.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.1N 63.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 63.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.3N 63.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 30.0N 63.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 63.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 221144
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
800 AM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

...TAMMY PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 62.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Hurricane Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 62.5 West. Tammy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north or
north-northeast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today followed by fluctuations
in strength thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with storm total maximum amounts of
12 inches

Martinique and Dominica: An additional 2 to 4 inches, with storm
total maximum of 6 inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum storm total amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 221023
TCUAT5

Hurricane Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
625 AM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

...HURRICANE WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BARBUDA...

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
for Barbuda. According to the Meteorological Service in Antigua,
maximum sustained winds were are as high as 90 mph (145 km/h) over
Barbuda last night.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220911
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0900 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 62.3W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 62.3W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 62.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.8N 63.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.9N 63.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.7N 63.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.2N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.8N 61.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 26.0N 61.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 29.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 62.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220856
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

Tammy is beginning to pull away form the northernmost Leeward
islands this morning. The final fix of the prior Air Force
reconnaissance mission suggested the pressure was holding steady
with an eyewall that remained open to the southwest. This structure
was also consistent with the last few radar images out of Guadeloupe
as the Tammy moved out of its range. On satellite, the storm
continues to produce a compact central dense overcast (CDO) of deep
convection with overshooting cloud tops as cold as -85 to -90 C.
However moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear still appears to
be keeping the small hurricane in check with a sharp edge to its CDO
on the west side. The initial intensity is held at 75 kt this
advisory, which is a little under the subjective Dvorak
classifications form TAFB and SAB given the earlier aircraft data.
Another set of Air Force Reserve C-130 and NOAA-P3 aircraft are set
to sample the hurricane again later this morning.

The last center fix from the overnight Air Force mission suggested
that, after a brief west-northwest jog, Tammy had resumed a more
north-northwest motion, at 335/9 kt. Tammy should maintain this
motion or turn more northward during the remainder of today as it
moves along the western periphery of a large subtropical ridge. A
mid-latitude trough passing to the north of Tammy should then
position this ridge a bit southeast of the hurricane, and the
guidance shows Tammy responding by moving slowly north-northeastward
on Monday and Tuesday. However, most of the mid-latitude trough is
forecast to bypass the system, and this is where the guidance shows
dramatically increasing track spread. Most of the deterministic
models now show a deep-layer cutoff low breaking off from the
mid-latitude trough and dropping down to the west of Tammy, and the
vertical depth of the tropical cyclone will likely dictate how much
influence the cutoff low has on it. Much of the deterministic
guidance shows Tammy swinging around this cutoff and pivoting back
to the north or northwest by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
track forecast has been shifted a bit east and north of the prior
one, towards the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. However the leftward
turn at the end of the forecast happens at a variety of different
latitudes in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance. Thus, the track
forecast towards the end of the period is highly uncertain and of
low confidence.

As has been the case for the last couple of days, Tammy remains in
an environment of moderate 15-20 kt of southwesterly shear but
remains over warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. That has not
prevented gradual intensification of the hurricane thus far, and so
some additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so.
Afterwards as the shear begins to gradually increase, there will
likely be some inner core fluctuations and the NHC intensity
forecast shows a leveling off of Tammy during this period. After 72
h, the shear is likely to become prohibitively strong and weakening
is forecast to begin by that time, with Tammy likely dropping under
hurricane intensity sometime in the day 4-5 period. The significant
shear forecast however may be offset by some baroclinic forcing of
the upper-level trough interacting with Tammy at the end of the
period. However, like the track forecast, there is a range of
intensity solutions at these latter time periods, with the NHC
intensity forecast most closely following the consensus aids HCCA
and IVCN.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the warning area should continue
for the next few hours.

2. The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward
Islands through today. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 18.5N 62.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 19.5N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 20.8N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 21.9N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 22.7N 63.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 23.2N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 23.8N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 26.0N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 29.0N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220851
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

...TINY CORE OF TAMMY TREKKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 62.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 62.3 West. Tammy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the
north or north-northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Tammy will move further away from the northernmost Leeward
Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today followed by fluctuations
in strength thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the
northernmost Leeward Islands for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with storm total maximum amounts of
12 inches

Martinique and Dominica: An additional 2 to 4 inches, with storm
total maximum of 6 inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum storm total amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220556
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
200 AM AST Sun Oct 22 2023

...TAMMY NOW NORTHWEST OF BARBUDA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 62.1 West. Tammy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the
north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands by this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the
northern Leeward Islands through this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas
through this morning.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with storm total maximum amounts of
12 inches

Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches, storm total
maximum 6 inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum storm total amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220259
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, along with radar
imagery from Guadeloupe, indicate that the center of Tammy passed
over the island of Barbuda a couple of hours ago. The hurricane
continues to produce intense convection in a small CDO feature with
some ill-defined bands north and northeast of the center. The
eyewall has generally not been closed on the radar images. There
are still some areas of strong convection affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles to the south of Tammy. Flight-level and SFMR winds
along with Doppler velocity data suggested that the maximum winds
had decreased slightly, but there was an unofficial report of a
sustained wind of 78 kt from Barbuda. Based on a blend of the
aircraft data and the Barbuda observation, the intensity is held at
75 kt for this advisory.

Center fixes indicate that the hurricane continues on its
north-northwestward trek with an estimated motion of 330/9 kt. Over
the next couple of days, Tammy should turn northward while it moves
along the western side of a large subtropical high. Then, the
system should turn, at least temporarily, northeastward on the
southeastern periphery of a mid-tropospheric trough over the western
Atlantic. Beginning around 3 days, the track forecast becomes
challenging, since the global models indicate that the western
Atlantic trough will bypass Tammy after 72 hours while it continues
eastward. A ridge could then build in to the northwest of the
system and cause it to turn to the left. As noted earlier, there is
a very large spread in the track guidance in the latter part of the
forecast period. There is low confidence in the 4- and 5-day NHC
forecast positions.

Tammy should remain over very warm waters with moderate vertical
wind shear for the next couple of days. So, some slight
strengthening is still forecast. By 60 or 72 hours, increasing
shear is likely to induce a weakening trend. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of the northern Leeward Islands through early Sunday.

2. The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward
Islands through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore
winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.8N 61.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.8N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 20.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 21.5N 63.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 22.6N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 23.1N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 23.5N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 25.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 27.5N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220257
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

...TAMMY JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BARBUDA...
...CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 61.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for Antigua, and discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 61.9 West. Tammy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the
north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands by Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the
northern Leeward Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the British Virgin Islands
tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with storm total maximum amounts of
12 inches

Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches, storm total
maximum 6 inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum storm total amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220256
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 61.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 61.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.8N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.2N 63.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 63.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.6N 63.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.1N 63.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 25.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 27.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 61.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 220118
TCUAT5

Hurricane Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
915 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

...TAMMY MAKES LANDFALL IN BARBUDA...

Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that the
center of Hurricane Tammy has made landfall on the island of
Barbuda. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph (140
km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 990 mb
(29.23 inches).

SUMMARY OF 915 PM AST...0115 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 61.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212359
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
800 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

...TAMMY VERY NEAR BARBUDA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 61.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Hurricane
Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 61.6 West. Tammy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the
north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, and then
move north of the northern Leeward Islands by Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the
northern Leeward Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the British Virgin Islands
tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 212045
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

Tammy passed just east of Guadeloupe around 18Z and is now located
near Antigua. Radar imagery continues to show a tight and
well-organized inner core, and the earlier aircraft data indicated
that the hurricane-force winds were confined to that region.
Despite Tammy having passed just east of Dominica and Guadeloupe
today, surface observations indicate that winds did not get
particularly high at those locations due to Tammy being a very
compact hurricane. The initial intensity is held at 75 kt based on
the earlier aircraft data and steady state appearance in radar
images. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Tammy again this evening.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, 335 degrees, at 9 kt.
A continued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during
the next 12-24 hours, taking the core of Tammy over or just east of
the Leeward Islands during that time. After the hurricane pulls
north of the islands on Sunday, a turn to the north seems likely
when the system moves in the flow between a ridge over the central
Atlantic and a large trough over the western Atlantic. The spread
in the guidance continues to be very large in the 4- and 5-day time
frame. In fact, the difference in the model predicted center
positions of Tammy at day 5 is more than 1000 miles. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar is the previous one through day 3, but
is again slower than the earlier forecast at days 4 and 5, trending
toward the HCCA guidance.

Tammy is expected to remain over very warm 29 to 30 C SSTs during
the next few days, however, it will also remain in a moderate wind
shear environment. These conditions will likely result in slow
strengthening during the next few days. The opportunity for
strengthening will likely end early next when Tammy moves into a
region of stronger shear, which should cause a weakening trend. The
NHC intensity is again nudged upward, trending toward the latest
consensus models. However, the intensity forecast at long range is
of low confidence since Tammy's future strength will likely be
correlated to the track.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of the Leeward Islands through early Sunday.

2. The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward
Islands through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore
winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.0N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 18.1N 62.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 19.5N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 20.9N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 22.2N 63.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 23.1N 63.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 23.8N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 25.6N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 28.0N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212044
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

...TAMMY VERY NEAR ANTIGUA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 61.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
Guadeloupe, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
t 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 61.3 West. Tammy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the
north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands through early
Sunday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands by
Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward
across the northern Leeward Islands through tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas
through tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the British Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 212041
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
2100 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 61.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 61.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 61.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.1N 62.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 62.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.9N 63.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.1N 63.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.8N 63.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.6N 62.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 62.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 61.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211750
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
200 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

...TAMMY VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE AND ANTIGUA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 61.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 61.2 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the
north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands through early
Sunday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands by
Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next few
days, but Tammy is expected to remain a hurricane while it passes
near or over the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the hurricane
warning area during the next few hours and spread northward across
the Leeward Islands through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas today and
tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Martinique today and the British Virgin Islands tonight
and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 211451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

The center of Tammy is now located just to the east-southeast of
Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands. Satellite and radar data
indicate that the core of the hurricane is quite compact and despite
its close proximity to the islands, the strong winds remain just
offshore. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been
investigating Tammy this morning, and a combination of the data they
have collected indicate that the hurricane has strengthened a
little. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 75 kt based on
maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 86 kt and a peak SFMR wind of
74 kt. However, as noted above, the hurricane-force winds are
occurring over a small region very near the center.

The hurricane has turned to the right over the past several hours,
and the initial motion is now northwestward, 325 degrees, at 7 kt.
A continued northwestward motion is expected during the next 12-24
hours, taking the core of Tammy over or just east of the Leeward
Islands during that time. After the hurricane clears the islands,
a turn to the north seems likely when the system moves in the flow
between a ridge over the central Atlantic and a large trough over
the western Atlantic. There is a significant amount of spread in
the models in the days 3-5 time frame, which seems to be associated
with model differences in the magnitude of the trough and vertical
depth/intensity of Tammy. The NHC track forecast is a little to
the right and slower than the previous one based on the initial
position/motion and latest model guidance. However, given that the
spread in the model positions of Tammy are about 900 miles at day 5,
confidence is low in Tammy's long range track.

Tammy will likely fluctuate in strength over the next few days
while it remains in mixed environmental conditions of very warm
SSTs and moderate wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is a
touch higher than the previous one and generally near the IVCN and
HCCA models. Gradual weakening seems likely by the middle of next
week when it moves into a region of stronger shear, but the
intensity forecast at that range is of low confidence since its
future strength will likely be correlated to the track.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands through early Sunday.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will affect the Lesser Antilles north of
Martinique today, spreading across the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and possibly eastern Puerto Rico on Sunday. This rainfall
may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore
winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 16.0N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 21.3N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 22.3N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 23.2N 63.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 24.9N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 27.3N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 211450
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1500 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 60.7W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 60SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 60.7W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 60.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 63.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.3N 63.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.3N 63.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.2N 63.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.9N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 60.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211450
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

...TAMMY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE JUST EAST OF GUADELOUPE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 60.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Dominica has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch for the island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 60.7 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the
north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands through early
Sunday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands by
Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next few
days, but Tammy is expected to remain a hurricane while it passes
near or over the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the hurricane
warning area during the next few hours and spread northward across
the Leeward Islands through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas today and
tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Martinique today and the British Virgin Islands tonight
and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
800 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

...CORE OF TAMMY JUST EAST OF DOMINICA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 60.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 60.6 West. Tammy is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the
north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands through early
Sunday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands by
Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next few
days, but Tammy is expected to remain a hurricane while it passes
near or over the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data collected by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the hurricane
warning area later this morning and spread northward across the
Leeward Islands today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas today and tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas
today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible on
Martinique today and the British Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Portions of the Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts
of 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches.

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210841
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

Mosaic radar data from Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Barbados show
that Tammy's core is passing just to the east of Martinique and
Dominica. The eyewall has become more pronounced during the past
several hours although it is open on the south side. In infrared
satellite imagery, the hurricane has a relatively small CDO and a
prominent trailing convective band to the south, but no evidence of
an eye. Based on earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data,
Tammy's initial intensity remains 70 kt.

Aircraft fixes and the radar data indicate that Tammy has finally
turned northwestward at 305/8 kt. A strong mid-latitude trough
moving off the east coast of the United States is eroding the
western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, which should
cause Tammy to continue northwestward across the Leeward Islands
through tonight and early Sunday, and then turn north-northwestward
and northward Sunday and Monday. For the first 3 days of the
forecast, the new NHC track prediction is nearly on top of the
previous forecast and is close to the HCCA consensus aids. There
has been a dramatic change in the global model solutions beyond day
3. Some models (the ECMWF and UKMET) show the trough completely
bypassing Tammy and leaving the cyclone to stall north of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands, while others (the GFS and Canadian)
initially show Tammy turning northeastward but then interacting
with a shortwave trough and slowing down over the western Atlantic.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted significantly westward on
days 4 and 5 to account for these latest model trends.

Tammy will continue moving over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees
Celsius during the next few days, but the storm will also continue
to contend with some moderate westerly or southwesterly vertical
shear. Fluctuations in intensity will be possible during the next
few days depending on if the oceanic or atmospheric factors win
out, but all in all little change in strength is predicted during
the next 3 to 4 days. Some weakening is possible at the end of the
forecast period due to a more significant increase in shear.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands through Sunday.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will affect the Windward and Leeward
Islands today, spreading into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and eastern Puerto Rico as early as Sunday. This rainfall may
produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore
winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 15.2N 60.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.8N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 19.3N 63.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.6N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 21.9N 64.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 22.8N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 24.5N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 27.0N 62.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210841
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

...TAMMY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF DOMINICA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 60.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 60.4 West. Tammy is now moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy
will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands through
early Sunday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands
by Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next few
days, but Tammy is expected to remain a hurricane while it passes
near or over the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the hurricane
warning area later this morning and spread northward across the
Leeward Islands today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas today and tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas
today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible on
Martinique today and the British Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Portions of the Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts
of 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches.

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210840
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 60.4W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 60SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 60.4W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 60.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 61.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N 62.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.3N 63.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.6N 64.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.9N 64.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.8N 64.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 24.5N 63.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 62.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 60.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210549
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
200 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

...CENTER OF TAMMY PASSING EAST-NORTHEAST OF MARTINIQUE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 60.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 60.3 West. Tammy is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is anticipated this morning, followed by a
north-northwestward and northward turn tonight through Sunday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or
over portions of the Leeward Islands through tonight, and then move
north of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so
while the hurricane moves near or over portions of the Leeward
Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the hurricane
warning area later this morning and spread northward across the
Leeward Islands today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas today and tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas
today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible on
Martinique today and the British Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Portions of the Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts
of 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches.

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210258
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

Although the satellite and radar presentations of Tammy do not
appear to have become significantly better organized, with a small
CDO and limited convective banding features, reconnaissance
aircraft data indicate the hurricane has strengthened slightly.
Dropsonde and SFMR-observed surface winds from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support an intensity of 70 kt for this
advisory. This is a little above the most recent Dvorak estimates.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tammy
is still moving west-northwestward or at about 295/8 kt, so the
anticipated northwestward turn has not yet occurred. The hurricane
is moving along the southwestern periphery of a large subtropical
high pressure area. A strong mid-tropospheric trough moving off the
U.S. east coast should erode the western portion of the ridge and
cause Tammy to turn northwestward to northward during the next
couple of days. However, based on the more westward motion observed
by the Hurricane Hunters, the official track forecast has been
shifted somewhat to the west of the previous one through 48 hours.
This is a little west of the model consensus. The track guidance is
not in very good agreement on the movement of Tammy after is passes
the northern Leeward Islands. Some of the models, such as the
ECMWF, show the system moving quite slowly at 72 hours and beyond.
The GFS is an outlier with a more rapid north-northeastward motion.
Based on the dynamical model consensus, the NHC track forecast is
slower than the previous one in the 3- to 5-day time frame.

Tammy should remain in an environment of high oceanic heat content,
but with moderate vertical wind shear for the next couple of days.
Thus, some modest strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours, while the system passes near or over portions of the Leeward
Islands. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
previous one, and above the simple and corrected model consensus
guidance.

It should be noted that there is a significant area of deep
convection well to the south-southeast of the center which
could bring heavy rains to portions of the Lesser Antilles well
after the center of the hurricane passes by.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward
Islands by late tonight through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Lesser Antilles
within the warning area overnight.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will affect the Windward and Leeward
Islands into Saturday morning, spreading into the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico as early as Sunday. This
rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore
winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 14.7N 60.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 15.8N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 17.3N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 18.8N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 20.0N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 21.4N 64.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 22.4N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 24.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 27.0N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

...TAMMY A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE PASSING JUST EAST OF MARTINIQUE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.2 West. Tammy is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is anticipated tonight, followed by a north-northwestward
and northward turn Saturday night through Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over portions
of the Leeward Islands tonight through Saturday night, and then move
north of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so while the hurricane moves near or over portions
of the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area by late tonight or early
Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area in the Leeward Islands on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning tonight.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Portions of the Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts
of 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches.

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210254
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0300 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 60.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 60.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 59.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.8N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.8N 63.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 63.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 64.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.4N 64.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 60.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
800 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

...TAMMY CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 59.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 14.5
North, longitude 59.7 West. Tammy is moving toward the
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
is anticipated tonight, followed by a north-northwestward and
northward turn Saturday night through Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Tammy will move near or over portions of the
Leeward Islands tonight through Saturday night, and then move north
of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days while the hurricane moves near or over portions of the Leeward
Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
observations is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area by late tonight or early
Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area in the Leeward Islands on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning tonight.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches.

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 202050
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

Moderate shear that is likely undercutting the higher-level outflow
layer has disrupted the inner-core development seen earlier today.
The eye that became apparent in radar imagery from Barbados this
morning has degraded since that time, but there is still a large
curved band that wraps around the eastern and southern portions of
the circulation. The Air Force aircraft that investigated Tammy
through early afternoon measured SFMR winds of around 65 kt during
its final pass through the center, and it reported that the minimum
pressure had fallen to around 991 mb. Although there has been the
recent degradation of the inner core, the initial intensity remains
65 kt, and is based on the earlier aircraft data and more recent
subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. The next
reconnaissance mission into Tammy is scheduled for this evening.

Very recent radar imagery from Barbados suggest that Tammy may
finally be making its anticipated northwestward turn, however the
long-term motion is still west-northwestward about 6 kt. A more
pronounced northwestward motion should begin very soon as a
trough moving off the east coast of the United States erodes the
western portion of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.
The expected northwestward motion should bring the center of Tammy
near or over portions of the Leeward Islands later tonight and
Saturday. While the numerical model guidance is in relatively good
agreement during the first 48-72 hours of the forecast period, the
spread has greatly increased after that time. The GFS shows a
stronger and more vertically deep cyclone recurving over
west-central Atlantic after day 3, while the latest UKMET and ECMWF
models depict a weaker cyclone that is left behind by an
eastward-moving trough over the western Atlantic. The NHC forecast
continues to predict recurvature, although the latter portion has
been adjusted slower once again.

The environment ahead of Tammy is not predicted to change much
during the next day or so. Warm waters and moderate shear are
expected to allow for some modest strengthening during the next
couple of days, and the NHC intensity forecast during that time is
similar to the previous advisory. After Tammy moves north of the
Leeward Islands, increasing vertical wind shear is likely to
initiate weakening as Tammy moves northward. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the IVCN intensity aid. Due to the
differences in how fast Tammy recurves, there is more uncertainty
than normal on when Tammy will begin extratropical transition.
The current NHC forecast maintains Tammy as a hurricane through day
5, but if it trends toward the faster side of the guidance it could
be post-tropical by that time.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward
Islands by late tonight through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Lesser Antilles
within the warning area this evening or overnight.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands tonight and Saturday spreading into the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as early as Sunday.
This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore
winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 14.3N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.3N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.7N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 18.1N 62.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 19.5N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 20.8N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 22.0N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 24.5N 61.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 28.4N 57.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

...TAMMY MOVING CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 59.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 59.2 West. Tammy is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is anticipated by tonight, followed by a
north-northwestward and northward turn Saturday night through Sunday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or
over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight through Saturday
night, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Tammy is expected to be a hurricane while it moves near or
over portions of the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area by late tonight or early
Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area in the Leeward Islands on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning tonight.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches.

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 202049
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
2100 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 59.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 90SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 59.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 58.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.3N 60.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.7N 61.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.1N 62.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.8N 63.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 63.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 24.5N 61.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.4N 57.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 59.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 201814
TCUAT5

Hurricane Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
215 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Hurricane Warning for
St. Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Anguilla.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201754
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
200 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

...CENTER OF TAMMY EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 58.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Dominica has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches and warnings could be required later today or
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 58.9 West. Tammy is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn
toward the northwest is anticipated by this evening, followed by a
north-northwestward and northward turn Saturday night through Sunday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or
over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and on Saturday, and
then move north of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Tammy is expected to be a hurricane while it moves near or
over portions of the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning later today or tonight. Hurricane
conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late
tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area in the Leeward Islands on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6
inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 201459
TCDAT5

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft and radar imagery from Barbados shows that the inner core
structure of the storm has become much better organized this
morning. The radar imagery has depicted strong convection that has
quickly evolved into a curved band, and more recently a closed eye.
The aircraft data indicates that there is still some tilt to the
circulation, but the most recent center fixes indicate that the
pressure has fallen quickly to around 992 mb this morning. The
plane has reported flight-level winds of 71 kt at 700 mb, and SFMR
values of 65-70 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt for this advisory, making Tammy a hurricane.

Tammy is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 6 kt. The storm
should turn northwestward later today as an amplified trough moving
off the east coast of the U.S. and into the western Atlantic erodes
the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic. This motion is expected to bring the center of Tammy near
or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and Saturday. The
latest track prediction is similar to the previous advisory and
lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus during the first
36-48 hours. After Tammy moves north of the Leeward Islands, the
storm is forecast to turn northward and then begin to recurve in
the mid-latitude westerlies by days 4 and 5. There is increasing
along-track spread in the guidance after 72 hours due to how fast
Tammy accelerates northeastward. Much of the guidance has been
trending slower, and the official forecast has followed suit.

The environment consisting of warm SSTs and light to moderate
shear favors some additional strengthening during the next couple of
days. The updated NHC intensity forecast calls for strengthening
during the next 36-48 hours while Tammy approaches the Leeward
Islands. Once Tammy is north of the Leeward Islands, increasing
vertical wind shear is likely to limit additional intensification.
Near the end of the period, Tammy is likely to begin its
extratropical transition, but it is still shown to be a hurricane
at day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward
Islands by late tonight or Saturday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Lesser Antilles
within the warning area later today.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands later today and into Saturday morning,
spreading into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
as early as Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore
winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 14.1N 58.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.1N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 16.4N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 19.3N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 20.6N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 22.0N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 24.4N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 28.2N 57.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201458
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

...TAMMY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 58.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Guadeloupe.

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, and St. Kitts and Nevis.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 58.6 West. Tammy is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn
toward the northwest is anticipated by this evening, followed
by a north-northwestward and northward turn Saturday night through
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move
near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and on
Saturday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands on
Sunday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Tammy is expected to be a hurricane
while it moves near or over portions of the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning later today or tonight. Hurricane
conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late
tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area in the Leeward Islands on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6
inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 201457
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1500 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 58.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 20SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 90SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 58.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 58.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.1N 59.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.4N 60.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.6N 63.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 63.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.4N 61.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.2N 57.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 58.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 201401
TCUAT5

Hurricane Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1000 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

...TAMMY BECOMES A HURRICANE...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that Tammy has become a hurricane. The maximum winds are estimated
to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The initial and forecast
intensities will be updated with the next advisory that will be
issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 58.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201157
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
800 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND
TAMMY SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 58.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 58.4 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A
turn toward the northwest is anticipated by this evening, followed
by a north-northwestward and northward turn Saturday night through
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move
near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and on
Saturday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands on
Sunday.

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast
during the next few days, and Tammy is expected to be at or near
hurricane intensity while it moves near or over portions of the
Leeward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data
is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning later today and tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands on
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6
inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 200907
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
510 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

The government of the Netherlands has upgraded the Tropical Storm
Watch for Saba and Sint Eustatius to a Tropical Storm Warning.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200856
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

Tammy is still an asymmetric tropical storm, although the surface
center is embedded beneath a persistent area of deep convection.
Radar data from Barbados also suggest that the circulation remains
tilted from west to east with height. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Tammy a few hours ago and
measured maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 61 kt and SFMR
surface winds around 50 kt, indicating that the storm's intensity
remains 50 kt. The central pressure has fallen slightly to 1000 mb.

The aircraft center fixes indicate that Tammy has continued to slow
down and is moving toward the west-northwest (290 degrees) at 7 kt.
An amplified deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United
States is beginning to push the Atlantic subtropical ridge
eastward, and this pattern evolution should allow Tammy to turn
northwestward by this evening, with its center passing very near or
over the Leeward Islands tonight and on Saturday. The new NHC
forecast is very close to the previous track prediction during the
first 36 hours and lies near the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.
After 36 hours, the track guidance has shifted a bit west and
slowed down, apparently due to the aforementioned trough lifting to
the northeast and leaving Tammy behind. As a result, the official
forecast continues to show recurvature over the central Atlantic by
day 5, but at a relatively slow forward speed.

SHIPS guidance suggests that deep-layer shear over Tammy should
decrease a bit over the next 24 hours, but model fields indicate
there could be some mid-level shear below the outflow level.
Still, environmental conditions appear conducive to support gradual
strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast brings Tammy to
hurricane intensity by 36 hours as the center passes near or over
the Leeward Islands. It is possible that Tammy could become a
hurricane before that time, as suggested by several models
including SHIPS, HAFS-B, HWRF, and the HCCA corrected consensus. A
peak in intensity is forecast in 3-4 days, before southwesterly
vertical shear increases in earnest ahead of the trough. Model
fields suggest that extratropical transition could begin toward the
end of the forecast period, but for now Tammy is still shown as a
hurricane on day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tammy is expected to strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday
while it moves near or over portions of the Leeward Islands.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the
Lesser Antilles within the tropical storm warning area this
afternoon or evening, with hurricane conditions possible within the
hurricane watch area on Saturday. Additional watches and warnings
could be required later today.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands today, spreading into the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This rainfall
may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 14.0N 58.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 14.7N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 15.9N 60.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 17.3N 61.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 18.8N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 20.3N 63.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 21.7N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 24.3N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 27.8N 58.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200855
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

...TAMMY FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 58.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM NE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 58.3 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A
turn toward the northwest is anticipated by this evening, followed
by a north-northwestward and northward turn Saturday night through
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move
near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and on
Saturday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands on
Sunday.

Data from a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Tammy is expected to be at or near hurricane
intensity while it moves near or over portions of the Leeward
Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1000 mb
(29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning later today and tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands on
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6
inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200855
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0900 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 58.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 90SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 58.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 57.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.7N 59.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 60.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 61.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.8N 62.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.3N 63.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.7N 63.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 24.3N 61.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.8N 58.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 58.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200555
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
200 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING TAMMY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 58.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings could be required tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 58.0 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual
turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
later today, and this motion should continue through Saturday. A
more northward motion is forecast to begin Saturday night or Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over
the Leeward Islands later today through Saturday, and then move
north of the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday.

Data collected so far by a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph
(95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected to
begin later today and continue into this weekend. Tammy is forecast
to be at or near hurricane intensity when it moves near the Leeward
Islands tonight and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1002 mb
(29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions
are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6
inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200246
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

Tammy appears to be in the process of reorganizing. The low-level
circulation we had been following appears to have slowed down
tonight, as confirmed by the last few fixes from the NOAA-P3
reconnaissance aircraft that has been in the storm tonight. In
addition, the Tail-Doppler Radar (TDR) on board the aircraft has
shown that the tilt between the low-level (1 km) and mid-level (5
km) center has been reduced as a result of this slowdown. There is
also evidence of convection beginning to wrap into the up-shear
quadrant of the system on both GPM microwave imagery available at
2350 UTC and recent radar images from Barbados. However, this
restructuring has not yet resulted in an increase in the maximum
sustained winds, which remain about 50 kt for this advisory, in
agreement with a blend of the subjective Dvorak data and the
earlier TDR data in the northeast quadrant.

Recon fixes indicate the Tammy is still moving generally
west-northwestward but slower at 290/9 kt. There is not much new to
report from the track reasoning this cycle. An enhanced mid-level
ridge (anomalously strong for this time of year) is beginning to
shift eastward as a sharp mid-latitude trough approaches from the
west. This shift should allow Tammy to turn gradually to the
northwest and then north-northwest over the next 2-3 days. However,
the forward motion related to this turn is forecast to be rather
slow, related to an upper-level cutoff low south of the mid-level
ridge weakening its steering influence on Tammy. Compared to 24
hours ago, the global model guidance is in better agreement on this
track solution, but continues to trend slower and a bit east of the
prior cycle. Thus, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted quite a
bit slower and a little further east of the prior one, blending the
prior track with the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN. It should be
noted that both the GFS and ECMWF remain on the east side of the
guidance envelope, and further adjustments in that direction may be
needed in subsequent cycles. Tammy is still forecast to recurve to
the north-northeast by the end of the forecast period. However,
there is a substantial amount of spread in the along-track direction
in both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, related to whether or not Tammy
is fully picked up by the mid-latitude trough.

Assuming Tammy is in the process of becoming better vertically
aligned, the storm has an opportunity to intensify as shear remains
light to moderate (10-20 kt) and sea-surface temperatures remain
quite warm (near 30 C). The guidance this cycle shows a bit more
short-term intensification than before, and the NHC intensity
forecast follows suit, showing gradual intensification to hurricane
intensity in 36 h and a bit more intensification through day 4.
Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear at the end of the of
forecast period may begin to induce weakening as Tammy moves into
the stronger mid-latitude flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough. The
NHC intensity forecast is close to or just a shade under the latest
consensus aids HCCA and IVCN.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the Lesser Antilles beginning Friday, where a tropical storm
warning is in effect. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are
possible elsewhere in the Leeward Islands where hurricane and
tropical storm watches are currently in effect. Additional watches
and warnings could be required on Friday.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This rainfall
may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 13.8N 57.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 14.3N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 15.3N 59.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 16.6N 61.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 18.0N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 21.5N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 24.0N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 28.0N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200243
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

...TAMMY SLOWING DOWN AND REORGANIZING...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TOMORROW FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 57.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Hurricane Watch
for St. Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings could be required tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 57.1 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual
turn to the northwest with some additional slowdown is forecast on
Friday, and this motion should continue through Saturday. A more
northward motion is forecast to begin Saturday night or Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the
Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday, and then move north of the
Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected to begin on Friday and continue
into this weekend. Tammy is forecast to be at or near hurricane
intensity when it moves near the Leeward Islands Friday night and
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning tomorrow. Hurricane conditions
are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands Friday night and
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area beginning tomorrow.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6
inches

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200242
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 57.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 57.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 56.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.3N 58.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.3N 59.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.6N 61.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 57.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200020 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 6A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
800 PM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

Corrected changes to watching and warnings

...TAMMY SLOWING DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 56.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch for Anguilla.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Anguilla and St. Barthelemy
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 56.8 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (16 km/h). A gradual
turn to the northwest with some additional slowdown is forecast
tonight into Friday, and this motion should continue through
Saturday. A more northward motion is forecast to begin Saturday
night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday, and then
move north of the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from both Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
tonight, but gradual strengthening is expected to begin on Friday
and continue into this weekend. Tammy is forecast to be at or near
hurricane intensity when it moves near the Leeward Islands Friday
night and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure is estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning Friday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands Friday night and
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, across the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with
maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce
isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192359
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
800 PM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

...TAMMY SLOWING DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 56.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch for Anguilla and St. Barthelemy.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Martin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Anguilla and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Anguilla and St. Barthelemy
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 56.8 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (16 km/h). A gradual
turn to the northwest with some additional slowdown is forecast
tonight into Friday, and this motion should continue through
Saturday. A more northward motion is forecast to begin Saturday
night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday, and then
move north of the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from both Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
tonight, but gradual strengthening is expected to begin on Friday
and continue into this weekend. Tammy is forecast to be at or near
hurricane intensity when it moves near the Leeward Islands Friday
night and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure is estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning Friday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands Friday night and
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, across the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with
maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce
isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 192055
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

Tammy has not become any better organized since this morning. The
center of the cyclone has become partially exposed to the west and
northwest of the main area of deep convection, and there is little
evidence of banding except over the southeastern portion of the
storm. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been
investigating Tammy this afternoon and has reported peak 850 mb
flight-level winds of 53 kt and SFMR values of around 40 kt.
Earlier scatterometer data revealed some 40-45 kt vectors over the
southeastern portion of the circulation. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory.

After taking a more westward jog earlier this afternoon, the latest
aircraft fixes suggest the west-northwestward motion has resumed.
The latest motion estimate is 285 degrees at 11 kt. Tammy is
nearing the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic and the cyclone should turn northwestward within
the next day or so. This motion is expected to bring the center of
Tammy near or over portions of the Leeward Islands late Friday and
Saturday. Once Tammy is north of the Leeward Islands on Sunday,
it is expected to turn northward around the western side of the
aforementioned ridge. There has been little overall change with
the track guidance this cycle. The GFS and ECMWF models remain
along the eastern side of the guidance envelope, while the models
that show less strengthening are along the far western side of the
guidance. The NHC track forecast remains nears the middle of the
guidance envelope between the HFIP corrected consensus and the TCVA
simple consensus aid.

The current structure of Tammy does not suggest that it will
strengthen very quickly during the next day or so, but warm SSTs
and moderate vertical shear conditions could allow for some
modest intensification after that and the NHC official forecast
still calls for Tammy to become a hurricane in a couple of days.
After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast after
Tammy moves north of the Leeward Islands and recurves over the
central Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the Lesser Antilles beginning Friday, where a tropical storm
warning is in effect. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are
possible elsewhere in the Leeward Islands where hurricane and
tropical storm watches are currently in effect. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required tonight.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This rainfall
may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 13.7N 56.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 14.2N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 15.0N 59.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 16.4N 61.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 17.9N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 19.5N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 21.0N 63.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 24.3N 62.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 28.5N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192054
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

...CENTER OF TAMMY EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 56.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Dominica has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 56.6 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast on Friday, and this motion should continue
through Saturday. A northward motion is forecast to begin Saturday
night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday, and then
move north of the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, but gradual
strengthening is expected to begin on Friday and continue into this
weekend. Tammy is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity when
it moves near the Leeward Islands Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure is estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning Friday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands Friday night and
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, across the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with
maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce
isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 192054
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
2100 UTC THU OCT 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 56.6W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 60SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 56.6W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 56.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.2N 58.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.0N 59.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 61.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.9N 62.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.5N 63.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 63.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.3N 62.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 56.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191756
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
200 PM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TAMMY MOVING WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 56.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 56.4 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight. A turn
toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, and this motion should
continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and Tammy is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
moves near the Leeward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning Friday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands Friday night and
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Sunday, Tammy is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Windward and Leeward Islands. Rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches are
expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto
Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding,
along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles today, and will continue into the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 191501
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

Tammy is a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located on the
northwestern edge of the main convective mass. Despite this
structure, the storm has strengthened since yesterday. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Tammy this morning found
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 49 kt and peak SFMR winds of 50
kt. Based on these data, the intensity was increased to 50 kt on a
Special advisory that was issued at 1200 UTC. The plane did not
find any stronger winds since that time, and the initial intensity
remains 50 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Tammy this
afternoon.

Tammy is moving west-northwestward or 285 degrees at 13 kt. The
storm is forecast to reach the southwestern periphery of a
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic by Friday, and this
should cause Tammy to slow down and turn northwestward during the
next 24 to 36 hours. This motion is forecast to bring the center of
the storm near or over portions of the Leeward Islands late Friday
and Saturday. After Tammy moves north of the Leeward Islands, the
storm is expected to turn northward around the western side of the
ridge. There is still significant spread on exactly when the
northwestward turn occurs with the GFS and ECMWF along the right
side of the guidance envelope, with some of the regional hurricane
models along the left side. The NHC track is near the middle of
the guidance envelope closest to the HFIP corrected consensus
model.

Tammy will be moving over warm SSTS as it nears the Leeward Islands,
which should allow for gradual strengthening despite the presence
of light to moderate wind shear. Given the current sheared
structure, the NHC intensity forecast is a bit more conservative
during the first day or two than much of the intensity guidance.
Despite that, the updated NHC forecast calls for Tammy to be at or
near hurricane strength when it moves near or over the Leeward
Islands. Additional strengthening is expected after Tammy moves
north of the Leeward Islands and recurves over the central
Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, where a tropical storm warning is
in effect. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible
elsewhere in the Leeward Islands where hurricane and tropical storm
watches are currently in effect. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the northern
Windward and Leeward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This
rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 13.6N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 14.0N 57.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 14.8N 59.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 16.0N 60.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 17.5N 62.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 19.0N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 20.5N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 24.0N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 28.4N 57.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 191450
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1500 UTC THU OCT 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 55.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 30SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 55.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.0N 57.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.8N 59.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 60.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.5N 62.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 62.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.5N 63.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 62.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 57.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 55.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 191207
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
800 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Tammy has found that
the system has strengthened overnight. The plane has measured peak
700-mb flight level winds of 49 kt and several SFMR winds of 50 kt
in both the northeast and northern quadrants of the storm.
Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt. The
intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the next
few days while Tammy moves over warm SSTS and remains within an
environment of low to moderate vertical wind shear. Additional
updates to the intensity forecast may be required later this
morning.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles beginning on Friday, where tropical storm
watches are currently in effect. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the northern
Windward and Leeward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This
rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1200Z 13.5N 55.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 13.9N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 14.5N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 15.5N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 16.8N 61.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 18.4N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 19.9N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 23.3N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 27.2N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191201
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
800 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND TAMMY STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 55.1W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 55.1 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday
and Saturday.

Data from an a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days
and Tammy could be near hurricane intensity by early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday night, Tammy is expected to produce
storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10
inches, across portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward
Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of
4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into
eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 191201
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1200 UTC THU OCT 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 55.1W AT 19/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 55.1W AT 19/1200Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 54.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N 56.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N 58.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.8N 61.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.4N 62.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.9N 63.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 63.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.2N 59.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 55.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 191137
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TAMMY STRONGER...

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Tammy has found that
Tammy has strengthened this morning. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h). A Special Advisory will be
issued at 8 AM EDT (1200 UTC) to reflect this change in the initial
intensity and to update the intensity forecast. The Special
Advisory will replace the 8 AM EDT (1200 UTC) Intermediate Public
Advisory.

SUMMARY OF 735 AM AST...1135 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 55.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...750 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190903 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

...TAMMY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
FRIDAY...

Corrected to add St. Kitts to the Watches and Warnings Section

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 54.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 54.8 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Tammy
could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday night, Tammy is expected to produce
storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10
inches, across portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward
Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of
4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into
eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190854
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

Tammy has not changed much overnight. Satellite images show a
persistent area of deep convection, but the pattern remains ragged
with little evidence of banding features. The low-level center has
occasionally been exposed near the western edge of the convection
due to westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held
at 35 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from TAFB.
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the storm later
this morning, and the data they collect will provide a better
assessment of Tammy's intensity, center position, and overall
structure.

The storm is moving generally westward at about 15 kt. Tammy is
expected to turn west-northwestward later today and likely
northwestward on Friday as it moves along the southwestern periphery
of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. This should take
Tammy near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and Friday night.
After that time, a gradual turn to the north and then the northeast
is predicted as Tammy moves in the flow between the ridge and an
approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the western Atlantic.
The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one in the short
term, but is slower at days 4 and 5 based on the new model guidance.
The GFS and ECMWF models have come into better agreement this
cycle, and both lie a little to the right of the NHC forecast
during from 12 to 72 hours.

Tammy will be moving over very warm 30 C SSTs as it nears the
Leeward Islands, which should allow the storm to strengthen despite
continued moderate wind shear. The storm will likely be near
hurricane strength when it moves near the Leeward Islands.
Additional strengthening is expected when the system recurves over
the central Atlantic while it remains over warm water and also gains
baroclinic support from the aforementioned trough. The NHC
intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is
in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles beginning on Friday, where tropical storm
watches are currently in effect. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the northern
Windward and Leeward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This
rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 13.5N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 13.9N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 14.5N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 15.5N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 16.8N 61.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 18.4N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 19.9N 63.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 23.3N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 27.2N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190853
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

...TAMMY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 54.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, and Nevis.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 54.8 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Tammy
could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday night, Tammy is expected to produce
storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10
inches, across portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward
Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of
4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into
eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190853
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0900 UTC THU OCT 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 54.8W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 54.8W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 54.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N 56.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N 58.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.8N 61.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.4N 62.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.9N 63.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 63.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.2N 59.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 54.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190537
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
200 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

...TAMMY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 54.2W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique and Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later
tonight or on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 54.2 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days
and Tammy could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday night, Tammy is expected to produce
storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10
inches, across portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward
Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of
4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into
eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190255
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 18 2023

Tammy's center remains difficult to pinpoint this evening. While a
persistent area of deep convection continues to be present near and
to the south of the estimated center, an SSMIS microwave pass that
came in after the prior advisory suggested the tropical storm still
has poor structural organization with some vertical tilt. It is
possible the center remains somewhat elongated or it could be
attempting to redevelop further into the deep convection. The
initial intensity will remain 35 kt for this advisory, in best
agreement with the TAFB subjective intensity estimate at 00 UTC.
Data from NOAA-P3 and Air Force reconnaissance missions, set to
take off tomorrow, will be helpful to better diagnose Tammy's
structure.

The motion continues to be more uncertain than usual given the
current structure. The tropical storm still appears to be moving
westward, but is starting to slow down at 270/15 kt. A
well-established mid-level ridge is steering Tammy westward
currently, but it is expected to gradually erode as a sharp
mid-latitude trough swings off the Eastern U.S. seaboard in the next
couple of days. The net result of this pattern change is that Tammy
is forecast to slow down and begin turning gradually poleward toward
the west-northwest and northwest in the next 2-3 days. Beyond that
time, Tammy is forecast to move northward and may begin to recurve
into the open Atlantic by the end of the forecast. As mentioned
previously, the guidance generally agrees on this scenario, but
there are significant track details related to the model-depicted
vertical depth of Tammy and how sharp of a turn northward the storm
makes. There are also along-track differences too, with the ECMWF
much faster than the latest GFS forecast. Compared to the previous
cycle, the guidance has shifted eastward and is a bit slower too,
and the NHC track was shifted in that direction, roughly in between
the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.

The intensity forecast is somewhat tricky. SHIPS diagnosed shear
from the GFS and ECMWF is currently light to moderate, between 10-20
kt out of the northwest. The GFS-based SHIPS suggests this shear
could even lower some over the next 24-48 h. The lower shear,
combined with very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures could
potentially promote significant intensification. However, the
potential for any intensification is dependent on the storm
structure, which remains more uncertain than usual given the lack of
recent high resolution microwave or scatterometer data. To add to
the uncertainty, the most recent HAFS-A/B runs show little to no
intensification, and in fact appear to lose the vortex in their
inner-nest beyond 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast continues to
show intensification to around 55 kt over the next 36 h, but only
more gradual intensification thereafter, assuming that moderate
vertical wind shear will keep the storm in check. This forecast is
near or just above the consensus aids. However, this could end up on
the conservative side if Tammy is able to become more vertically
aligned in the short-term, as suggested by the latest GFS and HWRF
forecasts.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles beginning on Friday. Tropical storm watches are
currently in effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and
Guadeloupe, and additional watches or warnings will likely be
required on Thursday.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the northern
Windward and Leeward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This
rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 13.0N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 13.2N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 13.7N 56.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 14.3N 58.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 15.4N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 16.8N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 18.4N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 22.0N 63.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 27.5N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190249
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 18 2023

...TAMMY STARTING TO SLOW DOWN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 53.1W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique and Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later
tonight or on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 53.1 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward motion
with an additional slow down is expected on Thursday. A turn toward
the west-northwest is forecast by Thursday night, followed by a turn
toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward
Islands Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days
and Tammy could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday night, Tammy is expected to produce
storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10
inches, across portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward
Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of
4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into
eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190248
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 52.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.2N 55.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.7N 56.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.3N 58.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.8N 61.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.4N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 63.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 53.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182342
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
800 PM AST Wed Oct 18 2023

...TAMMY CONTINUES QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 52.5W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique and Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later
tonight or on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 52.5 West. Tammy is
moving quickly toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast by Thursday night, followed by
a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the
Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday night, Tammy is expected to produce
storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10
inches, across portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward
Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of
4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into
eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182253 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Wed Oct 18 2023

Corrected to indicate time of next intermediate advisory.

...TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 51.7W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados. The government of Dominica has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Dominica. The government of France has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for Martinique and Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique and Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later
tonight or on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 51.7 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward motion at
a slower forward speed is expected through Thursday. A turn toward
the west-northwest is forecast by Thursday night, followed by a turn
toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward
Islands Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday night, Tammy is expected to produce
storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10
inches, across portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward
Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of
4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into
eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 182044
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Wed Oct 18 2023

The tropical disturbance that NHC has been monitoring for many days
as it traversed the tropical Atlantic (AL94) has finally become
sufficiently organized, both convectively and circulation-wise, to
be designated as a tropical cyclone. The circulation still appears
a bit elongated in visible satellite images, but the convective
activity suggests that a well-defined center has formed. Earlier
scatterometer data showed winds of 30-35 kt to the northeast of the
center, and TAFB provided a Dvorak estimate of T2.5/35 kt.
Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Tammy,
with an initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion is westward (275 degrees) at a fast 20 kt, but
there is uncertainty in this estimate given that the center has
likely just recently formed. A strong mid-level ridge to the north
is forecast to keep Tammy on a westward motion, but slower, over the
next 24 hours or so. After that, a deep-layer trough moving across
the eastern United States is expected to push the ridge eastward,
allowing Tammy to turn toward the northwest and then north into the
weekend. The track models agree on this general scenario, with
Tammy moving over or near the Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday.
However, there are some notable differences, with some of the
stronger models (e.g., HWRF and GFS) showing a turn just before
Tammy reaches the islands, while the weaker models (e.g., HAFS and
HMON) move the storm farther west into the northeastern Caribbean
Sea. The initial NHC track forecast is between these two periphery
scenarios, and is close to the ECMWF, TVCA, and HCCA solutions.
After passing the Leeward Islands, Tammy is expected to
accelerate northeastward over the central Atlantic ahead of the
trough.

Global model fields and SHIPS model diagnoses suggest that Tammy may
deal with some vertical shear, and possibly some dry air in the
vicinity, over the next few days. On the other hand, the storm will
be moving over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius.
Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, with the NHC intensity prediction very close to the IVCN
and HCCA aids. While the forecast depicts a 55-kt tropical storm
moving across the islands, there could be adjustments to this
forecast once Tammy's current intensity and structure become
clearer, and users should be prepared for possible forecast changes.
After Tammy passes the Leeward Islands, the intensity models suggest
that some further intensification will be possible as it accelerates
northeastward over the central Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles beginning on Friday. Tropical storm watches are
currently in effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and
Guadeloupe, and additional watches or warnings will likely be
required tonight or on Thursday.

2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the northern
Windward and Leeward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This
rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 13.0N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.1N 53.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 13.5N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 14.1N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 15.0N 60.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 15.9N 61.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 17.5N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 21.4N 63.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182043
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 PM AST Wed Oct 18 2023

...TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 51.7W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados. The government of Dominica has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Dominica. The government of France has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for Martinique and Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique and Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later
tonight or on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 51.7 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward motion at
a slower forward speed is expected through Thursday. A turn toward
the west-northwest is forecast by Thursday night, followed by a turn
toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward
Islands Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning on Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday night, Tammy is expected to produce
storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10
inches, across portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward
Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of
4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into
eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 182043
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
2100 UTC WED OCT 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 51.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 51.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 51.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.1N 53.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.5N 55.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.1N 58.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.0N 60.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 61.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 62.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.4N 63.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 51.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>