Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for LIDIA-23
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 110837
TCDEP5

Remnants Of Lidia Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

The satellite structure of Lidia has rapidly deteriorated overnight
over the mountainous terrain of western Mexico. Surface observations
and satellite data indicate the system no longer has a well-defined
center, and therefore this will be the final NHC advisory on Lidia.
Even though the system has dissipated, moisture associated with
Lidia's remnants could result in additional heavy rainfall and
flooding over portions of western Mexico today.

Key Messages:

1. Additional rainfall associated with the remnants of Lidia may
produce flash and urban flooding across portions of western Mexico
today, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near
the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 22.5N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF LIDIA
12H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 110836
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Lidia Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...LIDIA DISSIPATES, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 102.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the
Pacific coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Lidia were located near
latitude 22.5 North, longitude 102.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the remnants of Lidia can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: The remnants of Lidia are expected to produce an
additional 2 to 4 inches across portions of western Mexico through
today, bringing storm total amounts to 12 inches locally. This
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect the west coast of Mexico and
the Baja California peninsula through today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 110836
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0900 UTC WED OCT 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 102.5W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 102.5W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 103.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 102.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 110547
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...LIDIA PRODUCING FLOODING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES
FURTHER INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 103.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM N OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM NE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning for
the Pacific coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to San Blas to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located inland near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 103.5 West.
Lidia is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). This
general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
today. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will continue
moving inland over west-central Mexico this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected today as Lidia
continues moving inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through today across the
state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of west-central Mexico
will gradually subside overnight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the
tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Swells from Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and
the Baja California peninsula through today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 110242
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Lidia is estimated to have made landfall around 2350 UTC near Las
Penitas in the Mexican state of Jalisco. Satellite imagery showed
an eye briefly clearing and warming before reaching the coastline,
and the maximum sustained wind speed was estimated to be 120 kt.
Since that time, the structure of Lidia has degraded. The eye is
no longer apparent and convection around the center is no longer
symmetric. The initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to
90 kt. Continued rapid weakening is expected for the next day
while Lidia moves over the elevated terrain in west-central Mexico.
Model guidance shows the storm will dissipate within 24 hours, and
this is reflected in the official intensity forecast.

The hurricane's motion is estimated to be 60/15 kt. Lidia is
expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow of a mid- to
upper-level trough located over northern Mexico. Minor adjustments
have been made to the NHC track forecast. Even as Lidia dissipates,
remnant moisture could result in flooding rainfall and possible
mudslides as it moves inland.


Key Messages:

1. Lidia is moving inland over west-central Mexico as a hurricane.
Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected along the path
of the storm overnight.

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.

3. Dangerous water levels along the coast of west-central Mexico
will gradually subside overnight.

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 20.6N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 22.1N 102.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 110242
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lidia Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...HURRICANE LIDIA MOVING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 104.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
the Pacific coast of west-central Mexico from El Roblito to San
Blas and Las Islas Marias.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Pacific coast of west-central Mexico from El Roblito to
Mazatlan.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 104.7 West. Lidia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a slightly
faster east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Lidia will continue moving inland
over west-central Mexico tonight and Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as Lidia moves inland tonight
and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where Lidia
made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of
west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area. Tropical
storm conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm
warning areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of
Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 110241
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 104.7W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 25SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 104.7W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 102.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 104.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 102356
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
600 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LIDIA MAKES LANDFALL
IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND
OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 105.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Manzanillo to El Roblito

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* El Roblito to Mazatlan
* Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Satellite imagery indicates that the eye of Lidia has made landfall
along the coast of west-central Mexico near Las Penitas in the state
of Jalisco around 550 PM MDT (2350 UTC) with maximum winds estimated
to be near 140 mph (220 km/h).

At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located
on the coast near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 105.5 West. Lidia
is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
slightly faster east-northeastward motion is expected through
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move inland
over west-central Mexico tonight and Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lidia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected as Lidia moves
inland tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where Lidia
made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of
west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area. Tropical
storm conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm
warning areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of
Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ65 KNHC 102128
TCUEP5

Hurricane Lidia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
330 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...LIDIA STRENGTHENS INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

Recent satellite data indicate that Lidia has continued to rapidly
strengthen and has estimated maximum winds near 140 mph (220 km/h).
Lidia is now a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 942 mb (27.82 in.).
Some additional strengthening is possible before Lidia makes
landfall this evening.

SUMMARY OF 330 PM MDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 106.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 102009
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Lidia became a major hurricane around 1800 UTC and has continued to
intensify since that time. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently
found that the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to 950 mb.
In addition, the maximum 700-mb flight-level wind measured by the
aircraft was 116 kt, which adjusts to about 105 kt at the surface.
The maximum SFMR surface wind reported was 108 kt. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt. Lidia has
strengthened by a very impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours.
Although the eye has just become evident in geostationary satellite
images, it has been clearly seen in microwave data for much
of the day. Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and
magnitude, and has become more symmetric during the past few hours.

The outer rain bands of Lidia are beginning to spread across
portions of west-central Mexico, and weather conditions are
expected to steadily worsen into the evening. The center of Lidia
is forecast to make landfall in west-central Mexico later this
evening.

As mentioned above, Lidia has rapidly strengthened over very warm
SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the past day
or so. Since the environmental conditions are not expected to
change, Lidia could reach category 4 strength before it makes
landfall. Rapid weakening is expected once the center moves inland,
and Lidia is forecast to dissipate on Wednesday over the rugged
terrain of central Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Lidia is expected to make landfall in west-central Mexico as a
major hurricane this evening. Life-threatening hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area.

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of
west-central Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 106.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 21.2N 104.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 23.2N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 102008
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lidia Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE LIDIA FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO THIS EVENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 106.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Manzanillo to El Roblito

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* El Roblito to Mazatlan
* Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
6 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
nearing completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.6 West. Lidia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly faster
east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Lidia should make landfall within the
hurricane warning area in west-central Mexico this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lidia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible and
Lidia could become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane
before it reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after
Lidia moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
this evening. Preparations to protect life and property be nearing
completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of
Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 102008
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.6W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.6W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.2N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.2N 100.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ65 KNHC 101943
TCUEP5

Hurricane Lidia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
145 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...LIDIA STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY AND IS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Lidia has strengthened rapidly and has maximum winds near 125
mph (200 km/h). The minimum pressure is estimated to be 950 mb
(28.05 in.). An updated intensity forecast to reflect this change
will be issued within the next hour.

SUMMARY OF 145 PM MDT...1945 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 106.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...120 KM SW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 101757
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...LIDIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 107.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...260 KM SW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Manzanillo to El Roblito

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* El Roblito to Mazatlan
* Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
6 to 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.2 West. Lidia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Lidia should make landfall within the
hurricane warning area in west-central Mexico this evening or
overnight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and
Lidia will likely be at or near major hurricane strength when it
reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after Lidia moves
inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
later this afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this
afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of
Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 101432
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Lidia is strengthening as it approaches west-central Mexico.
Microwave images from a few hours ago indicated that the hurricane
has developed a well-defined inner core with an eyewall that is
nearly closed. Although an eye is not present in geostationary
satellite images, the central dense overcast has become more
circular during the last few hours. The Dvorak estimates have
increased and now range from 77 to 90 kt, and based on that data and
the improvement in the system's organization, the initial intensity
is increased to 85 kt. This increase in wind speed makes Lidia a
category 2 hurricane. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are in route
to investigate Lidia this afternoon, and will provide a better
estimate of the hurricane's intensity. The outer rain bands of
Lidia are nearing Isla Las Marias and west-central Mexico, and
conditions are expected to worsen in that region through the day.

Lidia is accelerating to the east-northeast, and the latest initial
motion is 070/13 kt. The mid- to upper-level trough just to the
west of the hurricane will steer it quickly toward west-central
Mexico and the center should make landfall this evening. However,
as noted above, weather conditions will deteriorate well before
then since most of the strong winds are east of the center. The
NHC track forecast is a touch to the south of the previous one and
near the various consensus aids.

Additional strengthening is expected due to a combination of very
warm SSTs near 30 C and a favorable upper-level wind pattern.
Lidia will likely be near major hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the
hurricane regional models, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON. Rapid
weakening is expected once Lidia moves inland, and the hurricane is
expected to dissipate by late Wednesday over the rugged terrain of
central Mexico.

Based on the forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward.

Key Messages:

1. Lidia is expected to continue to strengthen as it approaches
west-central Mexico today. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning this afternoon.

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of
west-central Mexico.

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 19.2N 107.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 20.2N 105.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 22.2N 102.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 101431
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lidia Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...LIDIA STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 107.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has modified the Hurricane Warning to
extend from Manzanillo to El Roblito and extended the Tropical
Storm Warning southward to Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Manzanillo to El Roblito

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* El Roblito to Mazatlan
* Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.8 West. Lidia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
east-northeast motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Lidia should make landfall within the hurricane
warning area in west-central Mexico this evening or overnight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast today and
Lidia could be near major hurricane strength as it approaches the
west-central coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after
Lidia moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
later this afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this
afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 101431
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
1500 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 60SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 100SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.2N 105.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 25SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.2N 102.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 101131
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
600 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 108.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Mazatlan
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12-18 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 18 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.3 West. Lidia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster
east-northeast motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Lidia should make landfall within the hurricane
warning area in west-central Mexico late this evening or overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast today while Lidia
approaches the west-central coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening
is expected after Lidia moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
later this afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this
afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area
this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 100842
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Lidia continues to have robust burst of convection this morning,
with cold cloud tops near -90 degrees Celsius. The recent
convective burst is near the well-defined mid-level core that was
depicted from an earlier SSMIS microwave pass. Subjective Dvorak
final T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are T4.0 (65 kt) and T4.5 (77 kt),
respectively. UW-CIMSS objective estimates range between 70-77 kt as
well. Based on the improved satellite imagery and recent
subjective and objective estimates, the initial intensity is raised
to 75 kt.

Lidia's estimated motion is east-northeast or 70 degrees at 10 kt.
The hurricane should move faster to the east-northeast later today
ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough advancing from the northwest.
The center of Lidia will approach the west-central coast of Mexico
later this afternoon and evening, with the system forecast to move
inland along the west-central coast of Mexico within the hurricane
warning area by tonight. The track guidance has once again trended
southward this cycle. The NHC forecast has been nudged further south
by about 20 n mi, and it lies close to the multi-model consensus
aids.

Low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the
track of Lidia should allow for further strengthening up until
landfall, consistent with the regional hurricane models and the
global model suite. While the 12 h intensity forecast of
90 kt is unchanged from the peak of the previous forecast (near the
upper-end of the intensity guidance), Lidia could intensify further
up to landfall. Increasing shear and the high terrain of Mexico
will result in rapid weakening after landfall and Lidia is expected
to dissipate by 36 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Lidia is expected to continue to strengthen as it approaches
west-central Mexico today. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning this afternoon.

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of
west-central Mexico.

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 18.6N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 19.5N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 21.1N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 100841
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0900 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 80SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 109.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.5N 107.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.1N 104.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 109.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 100842
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lidia Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...LIDIA STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 109.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from
Manzanillo to Playa Perula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Mazatlan
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located
near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 109.2 West. Lidia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster
east-northeast motion is expected later today. On the forecast
track, the center of Lidia should approach the west-central coast
of Mexico within the hurricane warning area this afternoon and move
inland over west-central Mexico late this evening or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast today as
Lidia approaches the west-central coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening
is expected after Lidia moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
later this afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this
afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area
later this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 100544
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 109.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Mazatlan
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 109.7 West. Lidia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected later today. On the
forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the west-central
coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area on later today and
move inland over west-central Mexico late today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast today as Lidia
approaches the coast of west-central Mexico. Rapid weakening is
expected after Lidia moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
later today, with winds expected to first reach tropical
storm strength by this morning, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 100246
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Lidia has become better organized this evening, with an increase in
deep convection and banding near the center. An 0122 UTC SSMIS
microwave overpass revealed a well-defined mid-level center that
could be slight tilted from the low-level center. The upper-level
outflow has also become a little better established over the western
portion of the system. Subjective Dvorak data T-numbers from TAFB
and SAB are both T4.0 (65 kt), and the objective estimates are
close to that value as well. Based on the increase in organization
and recent subjective and objective estimates, the initial
intensity is raised to 65 kt, making Lidia a hurricane.

The initial motion estimate is east-northeast or 065 kt degrees at
9 kt. Lidia should accelerate east-northeastward ahead of mid- to
upper-level trough approaching from the northwest. On this
motion, the center of Lidia will approach the west-central coast of
Mexico on Tuesday. This storm is forecast to move inland along
the west-central coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area
by Tuesday evening. The track guidance is in good agreement, but
it has again trended slightly south. The updated NHC forecast has
been nudged in that direction, and it lies close to the TVCE
multi-model consensus aid.

Low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs along the track of Lidia
is likely to allow for significant strengthening while the storm
heads toward west-central Mexico. The global and regional
dynamical models nearly unanimously call for significant deepening
during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
is a little higher than before. This is near the upper-end of the
interpolated intensity guidance, but a little lower than the raw
regional hurricane model output. Increasing shear near the time of
landfall, and interaction with land after Lidia moves onshore is
expected to result in rapid weakening and dissipation of the
cyclone by 48 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Lidia is now a hurricane and it is expected to continue to
strengthen as it approaches west-central Mexico on Tuesday.
Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon.

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of
west-central Mexico.

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 18.2N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 20.6N 105.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 22.5N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 100243
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lidia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...LIDIA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 110.2W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning north of Mazatlan.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Mazatlan
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 110.2 West. Lidia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the west-central
coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area on Tuesday and
move inland over west-central Mexico late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight
and Tuesday as Lidia approaches the coast of west-central Mexico.
Rapid weakening is expected after Lidia moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
on Tuesday, with winds expected to first reach tropical
storm strength by Tuesday morning, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 100242
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0300 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 110.2W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 110.2W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.6N 105.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.5N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 110.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 092356
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
600 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...LIDIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 110.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 110.6 West. Lidia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected this evening and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach Las Islas
Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight and Tuesday, and Lidia
is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas Marias
and the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
on Tuesday, with winds expected to first reach tropical
storm strength by Tuesday morning, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 092037
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Satellite images indicate that Lidia is becoming better organized.
Deep convection is consolidating near the center and it appears that
an inner core is forming. In addition, a large curved band has
developed on the south and east sides of the circulation. The Air
Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Lidia earlier this afternoon
and found that the minimum pressure was quite low, around 985 mb. A
combination of the aircraft flight-level wind and SFMR data support
increasing the wind speed to 60 kt, and is possible that this is
conservative. The aircraft data and recent satellite images
suggest that the center has reformed to the south of the previous
positions.

Since the center of Lidia appears to have reformed, the initial
motion of 065/7 kt is uncertain. Water vapor images show a mid- to
upper-level trough approaching Lidia, and that feature should steer
the storm relatively quickly to the east-northeast toward
west-central Mexico. The main change for this forecast cycle is
associated with Lidia's reformation, which is roughly 1 degree south
of the previous estimates. Based on the initial position
adjustment, the new track forecast lies to the south of the previous
prediction. This forecast is close to the consensus aids and
roughly halfway between the fast GFS solution and the much slower
ECMWF run. Based on the new forecast, Lidia is expected to reach
the coast of Mexico Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Since Lidia appears to be developing an inner core while moving into
conducive environmental conditions, significant strengthening is
forecast. The storm is expected to move over SSTs near 30 C and
into a favorable upper-level wind pattern. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement
with the hurricane regional models. Rapid weakening is forecast once
Lidia moves inland due to the rugged terrain in west-central Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen before it reaches west-central
Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning Tuesday.

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast
of west-central Mexico.

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 18.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 092036
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...LIDIA ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 110.9W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 110.9 West. Lidia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected this evening and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach Las Islas
Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast later today and Tuesday, and
Lidia is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas
Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 985 mb (29.09 inches) is based on
data collected by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
on Tuesday, with winds expected to first reach tropical
storm strength by Tuesday morning, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 092036
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 110.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 091755
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LIDIA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 111.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.5 West. Lidia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected later today and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach Las Islas
Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico Tuesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast later today and
Tuesday, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches
Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
on Tuesday, with winds expected to first reach tropical
storm strength by early Tuesday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 091433
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Deep convection has been on the increase during the past several
hours, but it is unclear if it has resulted in Lidia strengthening
yet. Throughout Lidia's lifespan, there has been notable
uncertainty in the initial intensity, and it is no different at the
current time. The latest satellite intensity estimates span from
47 to 65 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held
at 55 kt. However, the ASCAT data mentioned in the previous
discussion supported a lower wind speed estimate. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are currently en route to investigate Lidia, and
the data they collect should provide very valuable information in
estimating Lidia's intensity and structure.

Lidia has made the expected turn to the northeast, and the initial
motion is now estimated to be 045/5 kt. A mid- to upper-level
trough that is approaching Lidia should cause the storm to
accelerate to the northeast or east-northeast later today through
Tuesday. The models are in fair agreement on the overall path of
Lidia, but there is still a significant spread in the timing of
landfall with the GFS showing Lidia reaching the coast about 12
hours before the ECMWF shows landfall. The NHC track forecast
continues to lie between those solutions and remains close to the
various consensus models. Based on the forecast approach, Lidia
will likely reach the coast by late Tuesday.

The environmental conditions are becoming increasingly conducive for
strengthening. The storm is expected to move over SSTs near 30 C
and into a conducive upper-level wind pattern related to a favorable
trough interaction for the system. The models show significant or
rapid strengthening before Lidia reaches the coast, and the forecast
continues to follow suit and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope. Rapid weakening is forecast once Lidia moves inland due
to the rugged terrain in west-central Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central
Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning Tuesday.

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast
of west-central Mexico.

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 18.5N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 20.0N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 21.4N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 23.1N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 091432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 111.8W
ABOUT 330 MI...525 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Playa
Perula to Escuinapa. The government of Mexico has also issued a
Tropical Storm Warning from Manzanillo to Playa Perula and from
Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 111.8 West. Lidia is
moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster
northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected later today
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should
approach Las Islas Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over
west-central Mexico Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast later today and Tuesday, and Lidia
is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas Marias
and the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
on Tuesday, with winds expected to first reach tropical
storm strength by early Tuesday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 091431
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
1500 UTC MON OCT 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.8W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 80SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.8W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.1N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 111.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 091149
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
600 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...LIDIA TURNING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 112.1W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 112.1 West. Lidia is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster
northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected later today
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should
approach Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on
Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast later today and Tuesday, and Lidia
is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas Marias
and the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
on Tuesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength for the warning area by early Tuesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical
storm conditions possible on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 090844
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Lidia's convective structure has improved during the last several
hours with deep bursts of convection, and cold cloud tops near -90
degrees Celsius at times. The low-level center has become embedded
beneath this recent burst as well. There is a fairly large range of
intensity estimates this advisory cycle, however. Subjective Dvorak
satellite final-T intensity estimates are a T4.0/ 65 kts, from both
TAFB and SAB. Objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and
AiDT are 51 kt and 61 kt, respectively. An ASCAT-B pass from a few
hours ago depicted a much weaker wind field around 35 kt, although
the convective pattern has markedly improved since that time. Using
a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set to an uncertain
55 kt for this advisory. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon, which will
provide valuable in-situ data to bring clarity to Lidia's intensity.

Vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to relax over the
next 24-36 hr while Lidia moves over warm sea surface temperatures
on its approach to west-central Mexico. Models are in fairly good
agreement with this strengthening scenario, and Lidia is forecast
to become a hurricane late today, with the peak intensity unchanged
from the previous advisory of 85 kt when the system is near the
coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HFIP
corrected consensus model, on the higher side of the guidance.
After Lidia makes landfall, rapid weakening is expected given the
high terrain, and the system is now forecast to dissipate by 60 h.

Lidia is moving north-northeastward or 020 degrees at 4 kt. A
faster motion to the northeast and east-northeast is expected later
today and Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the
system. The track guidance has shifted slightly south this
cycle, with still some along-track timing differences with the GFS
being the fastest. The NHC track forecast has been nudged
southward and lies near the various consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central
Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on Tuesday, and hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch areas beginning Tuesday.

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south where
the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of
west-central Mexico.

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 18.2N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 18.7N 111.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 19.4N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 20.7N 107.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 22.6N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090843
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 112.4W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for Las
Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 112.4 West. Lidia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster
northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected later today
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should
approach Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on
Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico Tuesday night.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast
later today and Tuesday, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane
when it approaches Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central
Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
by Tuesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength for the warning area by early Tuesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical
storm conditions possible on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 090843
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0900 UTC MON OCT 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.4W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.4W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.7N 111.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.4N 109.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.6N 104.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 112.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090550
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
1200 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...LIDIA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS, RAINFALL IMPACTS, STORM SURGE,
AND HIGH SURF ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 112.6W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 112.6 West. A microwave
pass that was received just after the previous advisory depicted
that the center was further south than estimated at 0300 UTC.
Lidia is moving toward the north near 6 mph (10 km/h). A faster
northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected later today
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should
approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on
Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast later today and Tuesday, and Lidia
is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches the Islas Marias
and the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 090245
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Lidia's convective structure has become somewhat less organized
since this afternoon. The cloud tops have warmed and there has been
an overall decrease in the deep convection near the center. There
were some arc clouds noted in late evening visible satellite
images which suggests the system may have entrained some drier
mid-level air. Despite the recent loss of organization, the
initial intensity is held at 60 kt, which is a blend of the
various subjective and objective satellite estimates.

It is interesting to note that simulated satellite imagery from
the 18Z GFS and regional hurricane models showed a decrease in
convection this evening, but they also indicated a return of the
convection overnight, which is expected to lead to strengthening on
Monday. The upper-level winds over the system are forecast to
become more conducive for strengthening while Lidia moves over
slightly warmer SSTs on its approach to west-central Mexico. Much
of the dynamical model guidance calls for steady strengthening
beginning tomorrow, and the latest NHC forecast shows a slightly
higher peak intensity before landfall. This is in good agreement
within the latest HFIP corrected consensus model. It should be
mentioned that if Lidia is able to finally able to establish an
inner core within the next 12-24 hours, this intensity forecast
could be on the conservative side. Rapid weakening is expected
after Lidia moves inland over west-central Mexico. A 72-hour point
is provided for continuity but it is very likely that the cyclone
will have dissipated by that time.

Lidia is moving northward or 010 degrees at 6 kt. A faster motion
to the northeast and east-northeast is expected on Monday and
Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the storm from
the northwest. The track guidance has not changed much this cycle,
with the GFS still quite a bit faster than the remainder of the
dynamical aids. The NHC track forecast remains near the latest
consensus models, and is very similar to the previous official
forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central
Mexico, and hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch areas beginning Tuesday.

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south where
the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of
west-central Mexico.

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 18.2N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 18.8N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 19.4N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.3N 108.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 21.8N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 23.7N 103.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 25.6N 100.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090244
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...LIDIA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
...INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS, RAINFALL IMPACTS, STORM SURGE,
AND HIGH SURF ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 112.6W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 112.6 West. Lidia is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach
the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday,
and move inland over west-central Mexico Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight.
Strengthening is forecast on Monday and Tuesday, and Lidia is
expected to be a hurricane when it approaches the Islas Marias
and the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 090243
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0300 UTC MON OCT 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.8N 112.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.4N 110.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.8N 106.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.7N 103.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.6N 100.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 112.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 082355
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...LIDIA MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 112.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 112.7 West. Lidia is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach
the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to
be a hurricane before it approaches the coast of west-central
Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, western portions of the
state of Nayarit and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 082037
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Lidia has become a little better organized this afternoon.
Satellite images indicate that deep convection has been increasing
and gradually becoming more symmetric. However, microwave data
show that the low- and mid-level centers are still not well aligned,
and there is a notable southwest tilt with height. The initial
intensity is again held at 60 kt, near the low end of the satellite
estimates, but if the trends continue, Lidia could become a
hurricane tonight.

The storm has now turned northward at 6 kt. A faster motion to the
northeast and east-northeast is expected on Monday and Tuesday as a
mid- to upper-level trough approaches the system. There has not
been any significant change with the new models runs, with the GFS
remaining the fastest solution and the ECMWF the slowest. The NHC
track forecast has again been nudged northward this cycle toward
the latest consensus aids. Based on the latest guidance, Lidia will
likely make landfall in west-central Mexico late Tuesday.

Lidia could strengthen a little tonight or early Monday, but more
notable intensification seems likely late Monday and Tuesday in
part due to a favorable trough interaction while Lidia moves over
SSTs near 30 C. The models have trended higher this cycle and the
NHC intensity forecast has followed suit, and is in line with the
HCCA and IVCN models. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall
and Lidia will likely dissipate over central Mexico in a few days.

Based on the forecast and the track uncertainty, the government of
Mexico has issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches for portions
of west-central Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central
Mexico, and hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch areas beginning Tuesday.

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, western
portions of the state of Nayarit and coastal portions of Jalisco
in southwest Mexico.

3. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 17.6N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 18.3N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 18.9N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 19.7N 109.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 20.9N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 22.6N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z 24.5N 102.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 082036
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 112.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for Las Islas
Marias and for the coast of west-central Mexico from Playa Perula
to Mazatlan. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical
Storm Watch from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya and from Manzanillo
to Playa Perula

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 112.8 West. Lidia is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach
the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to
be a hurricane before it approaches the coast of west-central
Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical
Storm Watch areas beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, western portions of the
state of Nayarit and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 082036
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.8W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.8W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.3N 112.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.9N 111.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.7N 109.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.9N 107.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.6N 104.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 102.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 112.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 081433
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Lidia continues to be relatively steady state this morning.
Geostationary satellite images show little change in the convective
pattern, and recent microwave data indicate that the system remains
sheared with the low-level center located on the north side of the
thunderstorm activity. There is a large spread in the latest
satellite intensity estimates that currently range from 49-77 kt.
Given the structure of Lidia in microwave data, the initial
wind speed is held steady at 60 kt, closer to the lower end of the
intensity estimates.

The storm has been moving slowly north-northwestward at about 4 kt
over the past 12-18 hours. A turn to the north should occur later
today, followed by a considerably faster motion to the northeast or
east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough
approaches the cyclone. There is a fair amount of model spread on
how sharply Lidia turns to the right and how quickly it moves toward
the coast of Mexico. The NHC official track forecast has been
nudged to the left, or north, at 48 and 60 h toward the latest
consensus aids.

Given the current structure of Lidia and ongoing mid-level shear,
little change in strength seems likely during the next day or so.
However, the models show a more favorable upper-level pattern
developing over the system on Monday and Tuesday while it moves over
29-30 C SSTs. These conditions should allow Lidia to strengthen,
and it is expected to reach the coast of Mexico by late Tuesday as a
hurricane. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The NHC
intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and
is similar to the previous one.

Based on the latest forecast, Hurricane Watches will likely be
required for portions of west-central Mexico later today.


Key Messages:

1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while it moves
toward the west-central coast of Mexico on Tuesday. There is an
increasing risk of strong winds and heavy rain for the Islas Marias
and portions of the west-central coast of Mexico. Interests in these
locations should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as
watches will likely be required later today or tonight.

2. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.9N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 17.6N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 18.3N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 19.0N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 19.9N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 21.3N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.0N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 081432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...LIDIA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE
ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 112.8W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Islas Marias and along the west-central coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Watches will
likely be required for portions of these areas later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 112.8 West. Lidia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow
northward motion is expected later today, followed by a much
faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach
the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but some
strengthening is forecast on Monday and Tuesday, and Lidia is
forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 081431
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.0N 110.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.3N 106.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.0N 103.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 112.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 080834
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Overnight GOES-18 Proxy-Vis satellite imagery and a recent SSMIS
microwave overpass indicate that Lidia's vertical structure remains
slightly tilted toward the north, with the center located near the
northern edge of the cloud mass. The initial intensity is held at 60
kt for this advisory and is based primarily on UW-CIMSS objective
intensity techniques of the Deep Multispectral and IR Intensity TC
estimators, which both yield an intensity estimate of 59 kt.

The statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance indicates
that the deep-layer shear impeding Lidia's intensification rate
during the past few days will decrease soon. This more conducive
upper wind pattern should cause the cyclone to become a more
vertically coherent system. Therefore, strengthening is expected
while Lidia traverses warm (29-30C) sea surface temperatures, and
Lidia is forecast to become a hurricane early Monday. The NHC
intensity is based on a blend of the IVCN consensus and the Decay
SHIPS and is just below the HFIP HCCA corrected consensus beyond
the 48-hour period, which indicates a peak of 85 kt.

Lidia is drifting generally north-northwestward or 335/2 kt,
and this slow generally northward motion is expected to continue
through today while the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge. On Monday, Lidia is forecast to turn toward the
north-northeast to northeast and accelerate toward the west-central
coast of Mexico in response to a major shortwave trough approaching
the system from the northeast. No significant changes were made to
the previous advisory and the new official track forecast lies
closely to the various multi-model consensus aids.



Key Messages:

1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane while it moves
toward the west-central coast of Mexico on Tuesday. There is an
increasing risk of strong winds and heavy rain for the Islas Marias
and portions of the west-central coast of Mexico. Interests in these
locations should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as
watches could be required later today or tonight.

2. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 16.4N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 17.1N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 17.9N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 18.6N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 19.3N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 20.3N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 21.9N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080834
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...LIDIA MOVING LITTLE WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE
ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 112.5W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Islas Marias and along the west-central coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be
required for portions of these areas later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 112.5 West. Lidia is
drifting north-northwestward near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow
generally northward motion is expected to continue through today,
followed by an accelerated northeastward motion on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach
the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is expected through early next
week, and Lidia is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 080834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0900 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 112.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.1N 112.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.9N 112.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.6N 111.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.3N 109.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.3N 106.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.9N 103.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 080241
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023

The satellite presentation of Lidia has improved since yesterday.
Recent AMSR2 and SSMIS passive microwave images show signs of a
mid-level eye feature in the 89 GHz channel. However, the vortex
still appears tilted, with the low-level 37 GHz center situated to
the northeast of the mid-level center. While the upper-level outflow
is still restricted on the eastern side of the storm, the center has
been located deeper underneath the cold convective canopy today. As
a result, the satellite intensity estimates have risen, but they
seem a little high based on the earlier ASCAT data. The initial
intensity is raised to 60 kt, which is in best agreement with recent
UW-CIMSS SATCON and D-PRINT estimates.

The moderate easterly shear over Lidia is forecast to persist for
another 12-24 h, then weaken into early next week. The weaker
shear should allow Lidia to become more vertically aligned and
strengthen within a diffluent upper-level environment while moving
over very warm waters. Most of the intensity guidance shows
strengthening after 24 h while Lidia moves toward the coast of
Mexico. The regional hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF, HMON) show some
potential for significant intensification, and overall it appears
more likely that Lidia reaches the coast at hurricane strength early
next week. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised
at 24-72 h, though it still lies below the IVCN and HCCA aids. Given
the large spread noted in the intensity guidance, future adjustments
are certainly possible.

Lidia has not moved much since the last advisory, and its estimated
initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/3 kt. The storm is
expected to slowly turn northward on Sunday while moving around the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Then, the southwesterly flow
ahead of an upper-level trough to the north will cause Lidia to
accelerate northeastward toward the west-central coast of Mexico.
The largest spread in the track models is related to the forward
speed of Lidia while it interacts with the trough. The GFS brings
Lidia inland over mainland Mexico about 24 h earlier than the rest
of the global models, and thus there is more uncertainty in the
longer-range track forecast. For now, the NHC track follows a
consensus approach and lies between the TVCE and HCCA aids, similar
to but slightly faster than the previous prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane while it moves
toward the west-central coast of Mexico early next week. There is an
increasing risk of strong winds and heavy rain for the Islas Marias
and portions of the west-central coast of Mexico. Interests in these
locations should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as
watches could be required as early as Sunday.

2. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 16.1N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 17.6N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 18.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 18.9N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 19.8N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 21.1N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 24.0N 101.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080240
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023

...LIDIA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 112.6W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Islas Marias and along the west-central coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be
required for portions of these areas on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 112.6 West. Lidia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast
of west-central Mexico early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is expected through
early next week, and Lidia is forecast to become a hurricane by
early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 080240
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.6W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.6W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 112.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.6N 112.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.3N 111.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 101.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 112.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 072047
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023

Recent partial ASCAT passes and infrared satellite imagery indicate
that the center of Lidia has been located well underneath the
large, cold convective canopy for the past several hours. This
suggests that the northeasterly to easterly shear may have
decreased slightly compared to yesterday. However, recent SSMIS and
GMI passes indicate that the structure has not improved much. The
recent ASCAT passes also suggest that the winds have not increased
yet. Despite subjective Dvorak estimates ranging from 65 to 77 kt
and objective estimates ranging from 51 to 63 kt, the intensity is
held at 55 kt for this advisory based on the ASCAT data.

There is not much change to the track forecast reasoning. The
microwave and ASCAT data indicate that Lidia has not made any
significant northward progress yet. The motion is estimated at 280/3
kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected to occur over the next
24 h, after which time, the cyclone is expected to begin interacting
with an approaching trough from the north. This interaction will
result in an acceleration early next week toward the northeast and
in the general direction of west-central Mexico. The NHC forecast is
similar to the previous forecast through 60 h, but shows a faster
northeastward motion around the time of landfall and after landfall,
and is in best agreement with the TVCE consensus aid. It should be
noted that there remains significant along-track spread in the
guidance, meaning that there is some uncertainty in the timing of
landfall.

Moderate easterly shear is likely to inhibit significant
intensification through early Sunday. However, the shear is expected
to briefly relax late Sunday through Monday night, as the cyclone
moves northward over warm sea-surface temperatures. Lidia is
therefore forecast to intensify to hurricane strength by Monday. It
should be noted that Lidia could intensify a bit more quickly than
forecast, considering the center is now well underneath the cold
convective canopy. As the storm approaches landfall in Mexico,
southwesterly shear is expected to increase, but this shear may not
have time to affect the cyclone much before it makes landfall.
Furthermore, it should be noted that the deterministic GFS global
model depicts very low central pressures, suggesting Lidia could
maintain hurricane intensity through landfall. Other reliable
statistical models and consensus aids are not as aggressive. The NHC
forecast is similar to the prior forecast, except it brings Lidia to
hurricane strength a bit sooner. Confidence in the intensity
forecast is below average. Interests in west-central Mexico should
remain attentive to forecast updates in the coming days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.1N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.6N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 17.4N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 18.2N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 19.3N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 20.3N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 22.9N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 072046
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023

...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND APPROACH THE
COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 112.5W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Lidia is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a faster northeastward
motion on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Lidia is forecast
to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast
of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 072045
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 110SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.3N 110.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.3N 107.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 22.9N 103.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 071444
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023

Infrared satellite imagery this morning indicates that easterly
shear continues to impact Lidia. A recent AMSR-2 microwave pass
showed the low-level center embedded along the eastern edge of the
most intense deep convection. Based on a blend of subjective and
objective intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB and UW-CIMSS,
respectively, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.

Lidia has begun its turn toward the northwest, and the storm is
currently moving west-northwestward at approximately 4 kt. A slow
turn to the north is expected during the next day or so, after which
time it is expected to begin interacting with an approaching trough
from the north. This interaction will result in an acceleration
early next week toward the northeast and in the general direction
of west-central Mexico. While some uncertainty exists in the
forward speed forecast, the current forecast is very similar to the
prior forecast and lies between the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Easterly shear is forecast to remain strong and inhibit significant
intensification through the weekend. During this time the NHC
intensity forecast shows little change. However, early next week
the shear is expected to briefly relax as the storm begins to
accelerate northeastward over warm sea-surface temperatures. During
this time, Lidia is forecast to intensify to hurricane strength. Of
note, southwesterly shear is expected to increase as the storm
approaches Mexico, and the spread is quite large among the intensity
guidance aids. The ECMWF and GFS global models both depict central
pressures that suggest Lidia could maintain hurricane intensity,
while other reliable statistical models and consensus aids are not
as aggressive. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast and
near the center of the guidance envelope. Confidence in the
intensity forecast is low considering the wide range of solutions,
but interests in west-central Mexico should remain attentive to
forecast updates in the coming days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.2N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 16.5N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 17.9N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 18.6N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 19.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 21.6N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.9N 102.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 071443
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023

...LIDIA FORECAST TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 112.2W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 112.2 West. Lidia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a gradual
turn toward the north is expected this weekend, followed by a
faster northeastward motion on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast this weekend, but
Lidia could become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast
of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 071442
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
1500 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 112.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 90SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 112.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.5N 112.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.9N 112.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 21.6N 105.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.9N 102.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 070833
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023

Scatterometer and microwave data indicate that Lidia remains a
sheared tropical storm. The center of the storm is on the eastern
edge of an intense convective cloud shield, much as it has been
for days now. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt on this
advisory, representing a compromise between coarse scatterometer
data indicating 40-45 kt, and much higher satellite estimates.

The center of Lidia has either moved or re-formed a bit to the
south, and it seems to be moving westward at about 4 kt. Lidia
should slowly turn to the northwest and north during the next day
or two while ridging weakens nearby. After that time, a trough
diving in from the eastern Pacific and northwestern Mexico should
force the storm northeastward with increasing forward speed, in the
general direction of west-central Mexico. There is still a very
large difference in the forward speeds of the guidance, with the
GFS-based guidance much faster than the rest of the suite. Overall,
most of the models are leaning toward a faster solution, and the
next NHC track forecast is adjusted northeastward from the last
one, though still well behind the GFS model.

Persistent easterly shear is not forecast to abate during the next
couple of days, thus little change in Lidia's intensity is
anticipated during that time. This shear could relax while the
cyclone approaches Mexico, and gradual strengthening is shown then
while Lidia moves over very warm waters, though some of the
guidance increase the shear again before landfall. There continues
to be a large spread in the intensity models, from major hurricane
strength to a tropical storm near landfall, resulting from the high
track and environmental uncertainty. The new forecast is reduced
during the short term, consistent with the model trend, and is about
the same as the last one at longer range. This is considered a
low-confidence prediction due to the reliance on the track forecast
and the huge model spread.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.0N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 16.1N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 16.6N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 17.9N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 18.5N 111.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 19.2N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 21.0N 106.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 24.0N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 070831
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023

...LIDIA FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 111.9W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 111.9 West. Lidia is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northwest and north is expected this weekend, followed by a
slightly faster northeastward motion on Monday.

Satellite data show that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is
anticipated this weekend, but Lidia could become a hurricane early
next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast
of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 070830
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0900 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 111.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 90SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 105SE 105SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 111.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.1N 112.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.9N 112.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.5N 111.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 21.0N 106.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N 102.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 070310
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0300 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.3N 113.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.9N 113.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.5N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 111.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 070254
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023

Moderate easterly deep-layer shear continues over Lidia this
evening. Earlier visible satellite images along with AMSR2 and SSMIS
passive microwave data indicate the low-level center lies near the
northeastern edge of a large convective mass. The cyclone continues
to produce very deep convection, with infrared cloud tops as cold as
-85 deg C. But, the tilted vertical structure signifies that Lidia
has likely not strengthened, and the initial intensity is held at 60
kt. This is once again in best agreement with the UW-CIMSS SATCON,
D-PRINT, and D-MINT estimates. The ASCAT-B and -C overpasses
expected over Lidia later tonight should help to better assess the
low-level structure and refine the wind radii values.

Lidia is moving slowly westward at 275/5 kt. In the near term,
models are in good agreement that the storm will gradually turn
northwestward and northward during the next couple of days. By early
next week, a developing shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific is
forecast to cause Lidia to accelerate northeastward and move toward
the southwestern or west-central coast of Mexico. There is increased
spread in the guidance beyond 72 h, particularly in the along-track
direction. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the
right of the previous prediction, bringing it closer to the latest
consensus aids. The day 5 forecast position is just inland over
western Mexico, but note uncertainty is high as the GFS and ECMWF
are over 24 h apart in terms of when Lidia might reach the coast.

Although Lidia is currently moving over very warm SSTs, the easterly
shear is forecast to persist over the next couple of days. Thus,
only small intensity fluctuations are forecast through the weekend,
and Lidia could hover near or just below hurricane intensity during
this period. The global and regional models suggest there is a brief
window where Lidia could move under an upper-level ridge in about 3
days, providing a brief respite from the shear and allowing the
cyclone to become better organized. There is also some potential for
positive trough interaction thereafter, despite the increased
southwesterly shear forecast at 96-120 h. The spread in the
intensity guidance grows substantially beyond day 3. The HAFS-A and
-B models show Lidia peaking as a major hurricane, while the GFS
shows a hurricane and other global and regional models keep the
system a tropical storm. Overall, there is enough model evidence to
warrant showing slight strengthening later in the period, but the
longer-range intensity forecast is highly uncertain and future
adjustments may be required.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.4N 111.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 16.8N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 17.3N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 17.9N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 19.0N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 22.5N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 070253
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023

...LIDIA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 111.6W
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 111.6 West. Lidia is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northwest and north is expected this weekend, followed by a
slightly faster northeastward motion on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next
couple of days, and Lidia could become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast
of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula on Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 062038
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023

Lidia remains sheared, with its low-level center nearly exposed in
recent visible satellite imagery. Confidence in the center position
of Lidia is therefore much higher than it was six hours ago. Recent
Dvorak intensity fixes still appear to be inflated relative to
Lidia's observed structure. Thus, the intensity estimate is again
based heavily on objective techniques that incorporate microwave
data, such as the UW-CIMSS DMINT, which still support an intensity
near 60 kt.

For the next 2-3 days, confidence in the NHC track and intensity
forecasts is fairly high. Lidia is forecast to continue moving
generally westward to west-northwestward today, and then gradually
turn northward through the weekend. The tropical storm will likely
remain sheared during this time, which should result in only small
fluctuations in intensity. Lidia could still become a hurricane
tonight or over the weekend.

Beyond about 72 h, the forecast uncertainty increases substantially.
The tropical storm is forecast to interact with a mid-latitude
short-wave trough, which should cause it to accelerate
northeastward. The trough interaction will also cause a change in
the environmental mid- to upper-level wind pattern, resulting in a
southwesterly shear vector and an increase in upper-level difluence.
Some models, including both HAFS-A and HAFS-B, indicate that Lidia
could begin to strengthen at this time, while others keep it
steady-state and strongly sheared. There is also uncertainty with
the forward speed of Lidia. For instance, the GFS shows a much
faster forward speed than most other models. Run-to-run consistency
of the models in the 4-5 day time frame has been poor today, so only
very small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast at this time.
Larger changes may be required over the weekend as the forecast
becomes clearer.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.4N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.4N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 16.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 18.7N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 21.5N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Delgado


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 062037
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023

...SHEARED LIDIA REMAINS NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 111.2W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 111.2 West. Lidia is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue over the next day, followed by a gradual
turn toward the northwest, and then north, through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
two, and Lidia could become a hurricane tonight or over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast
of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula on Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Delgado/D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 062037
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.7N 112.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 111.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER DELGADO/D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 061456
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023

Lidia continues to produce very intense convection. Cloud tops as
cold as -95 deg C have been observed in the center of the main
convective mass during the past few hours. However, microwave data
from multiple polar-orbiting satellites during the past 6 hours
indicate that Lidia's center is not co-located with this convection.
Instead, the surface center appears to be displaced to the east,
with the tropical storm tilted by continued easterly shear. Recent
Dvorak estimates are not representative of this tilted structure, so
the intensity estimate is based more on the UW-CIMSS DPRINT, DMINT,
and SATCON techniques which incorporate microwave-based intensity
information. Based on those, the intensity remains 60 kt for this
advisory.

Although Lidia is tilted, its center is still obscured by the cirrus
canopy produced by its deep convection. Consequently, there is more
uncertainty than normal with the tropical storm's center location.
This is probably the largest source of uncertainty associated with
Lidia's track for the next 2 to 3 days. Lidia should move slowly
west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then gradually begin
to turn northward after that. After about 72 h, Lidia should begin
to accelerate northeastward, steered by a shortwave trough
approaching from the northwest. While the dynamical models agree
quite well on this general forecast, there is quite a bit of
disagreement on how fast Lidia will accelerate around day 4 and 5.
The NHC official track forecast has been nudged eastward, and lies
roughly halfway between the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

Continued easterly wind shear should prevent significant
strengthening during the next few days. That said, if the center can
co-locate slightly better with the convection, even temporarily,
some strengthening is possible. Beginning around 72 h, the upper-air
environment will change, with the shear direction switching to
westerly and upper-level difluence likely increasing. However, Lidia
will be moving into a drier environment at the same time, and most
intensity models do not show much change in the winds at that time,
up or down. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous one, and is higher than the model consensus in the short
term, in part out of respect to the higher-than-normal uncertainty
associated with Lidia's initial position and strength.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 16.5N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.6N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.0N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 17.5N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 18.2N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 18.8N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 061455
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023

...LIDIA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 110.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 445 MI...710 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 110.3 West. Lidia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a gradual
turn toward the northwest, and then north, through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two,
and Lidia could become a hurricane at any time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 061455
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
1500 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.3W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.3W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.6N 111.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.0N 112.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.2N 113.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 110.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060854
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023

Lidia's satellite presentation has improved during the past several
hours. Cloud tops remain very cold (-88 Celsius) and the cloud mass
has increased with a primary curved banding wrapping around from the
northwest to southeast side of the cyclone. Based on a recent
GPM/GMI overpass, however, the center is still located near the
northeastern edge of the convective canopy. Using a blend of the
subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the UW-CIMSS Deep
Multi-spectral Intensity TC estimator (D-MINT) objective analysis,
and the latest ATMS microwave intensity estimate, the initial
intensity is raised to 60 kt for this advisory.

Although the 20-25 kt of easterly shear has continued to impinge on
the eastern portion of the cyclone, the upper-wind pattern has
become appreciably diffluent. This favorable contribution along
with warm oceanic surface temperatures and a relatively moist
surrounding atmosphere should support further strengthening during
the next 48 hours. Afterward, a gradual weakening trend should
commence due to increasing southwesterly shear and Lidia moving into
a highly stable marine air mass. The official forecast shows Lidia
becoming a hurricane a little sooner than the previous intensity
forecast, and is based on a compromise of the statistical SHIPS and
LGEM intensity guidance.

The center of Lidia has been difficult to pinpoint this morning, and
Lidia is estimated to be moving in a somewhat uncertain direction
and forward speed of 295/4 kt. The cyclone is being steered by weak
mid-tropospheric flow produced by a subtropical ridge extending over
the eastern Pacific from the west coast of central Mexico. Near the
60 hour period, Lidia is forecast to turn northwestward to
north-northwestward while rounding the southwestern periphery of the
ridge. By the 72 hour period, the system should turn northward to
north-northeastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave trough
approaching Lidia from the northwest. The NHC track forecast
adjusted a little to the north of the previous one due to the
initial position adjustment, and closely follows the TVCE
multi-model consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.2N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.4N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.6N 111.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 16.8N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 19.1N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 20.5N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060853
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023

...LIDIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 110.3W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 110.3 West. Lidia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion
is expected to continue through Friday night or Saturday morning
with a slight increase forward speed. Later this weekend, a turn
back toward the west-northwest and then northwest is forecast.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060853
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0900 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 110.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 110.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.4N 110.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.6N 111.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.8N 112.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.1N 111.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 20.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 110.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060244
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023

Lidia seems to gradually be getting better organized. The estimated
low-level center appears to be more closely aligned with the deepest
convection, with cloud top temperatures of -90 degrees C. Still,
the majority of the convection is on the western portion of the
circulation. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55kt and the initial wind speed is raised
to 55 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving very slowly westward, at an estimated 270/2 kt.
Lidia is being steered by the weak currents of a mid-level ridge
located over Mexico. As the ridge strengthens, the cyclone will
continue to move westward at a slightly quicker pace for about the
next day. In a day or two, Lidia should begin to slowly turn
northward as the ridge begins to retreat eastward. By days 4 and
5, the system should accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of
an upper-level trough. The initial position needed to be adjusted
slightly southward based on the last-light visible imagery showing
the low-level spiral bands becoming more co-located with the deep
convection. This relocation shifted the official track forecast
southward from the previous advisory, which still lies between the
various consensus aids.

In terms of the intensity forecast, the atmospheric and oceanic
conditions are still mixed. The upper-level winds are expected to
induce moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear through the majority
of the forecast period. However, the warm sea surface temperature
and relatively decent mid-level humdities create conducive
conditions for strengthening. The model guidance indicates this
should lead to gradual strengthening for the next couple of days or
so. As the surrounding mid-level moisture decreases, the storm
should slowly weaken between days 3 through 5. The latest NHC
forecast shifted the peak intensity to 48 h and lies a little above
the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 15.8N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.9N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 15.9N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 16.0N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 16.4N 113.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 16.8N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 17.3N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 18.6N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060243
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023

...LIDIA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 110.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 110.1 West. Lidia is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday night or Saturday morning with a
slight increase forward speed. Later this weekend, a turn back
toward the west-northwest and then northwest is forecast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Lidia could become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060243
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0300 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 110.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 45SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 110.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.9N 110.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 112.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N 113.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 18.6N 110.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 110.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 052036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023

Lidia's overall satellite depiction has not changed much from the
previous advisory. There continues to be intermittent burst of
deeper convection within the convective shield. A SSMIS microwave
pass depicts that the low-level center remains displaced to the east
of the mid-level core, suggesting that Lidia has not become any
better organized as it continues to battle easterly wind shear. The
subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 50 to 65 kt.
A partial scatterometer pass hit the NW side of the system but did
not depict winds as high as the current estimates, but missed the
central core. Given the overall satellite depiction remains similar
to this morning, the peak intensity remains 50 kt for this
advisory.

Lidia continues to move slowly northwestward at 315/3 kt. The system
is being steered by a strengthening mid-level ridge centered over
central Mexico. As the ridge strengthens, the system will continue
to move slowly and turn towards west-northwest then westward. In a
few days, a mid-/upper-level trough is forecast to approach from
the northwest which will weaken the aforementioned ridge. This will
induce another turn of Lidia to the northwest, then north to
northeastward through the end of the forecast period. There
continues to be some spread within the guidance envelope on the
along-track forward speed and when the turn back to the northeast
occurs later in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous in the short-term, but is a little faster
towards the end of the forecast period based on a blend of the TVCE
and HCCA consensus aids.

Moderate deep-layer easterly shear should continue over Lidia
throughout the forecast period. Sea surface temperatures remain warm
along the forecast track, with moist mid-level RH values the next
few days. The cyclone should remain a small compact system, which
may allow for fluctuations in intensity. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous, and Lidia could become a
hurricane this weekend. Some weakening is forecast in about 3 days
due to an increase in drier mid-level air and continued easterly
shear. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, which lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.2N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 18.3N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 052035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023

...LIDIA LEISURELY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 109.9W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.9 West. Lidia is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a general
northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through tonight. A
turn toward the west is expected by Friday, followed by a turn back
toward the west-northwest and then northwest later this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Lidia could become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 052035
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.2N 111.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.5N 113.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 051453
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023

Lidia continues to have bursts of deep convection, with cold cloud
tops to -80 degrees Celsius, within the overall convective shield.
An AMSR2 microwave pass depicts that the mid-level core continues to
develop, with the low-level center displaced to the east of the
mid-level center. There is a wide range of satellite estimates this
morning. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB
were T3.5/55kt this cycle, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
AiDT and ADT range from 50 kt to 65 kt, respectively. However, an
earlier scatterometer pass around 0500 UTC had much lower winds
than anticipated near 35 kt. Given these higher satellite estimates
and satellite imagery, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt,
which is on the lower end of the estimates and a little uncertain.
Another scatterometer pass is anticipated over the system this
afternoon.

Lidia continues to move slowly northwestward at 315/4 kt. The
system is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over central
Mexico. By tonight, the ridge is forecast to strengthen to the
north which will cause the system to slow even more and turn
west-northwest then westward. In about 3 days, a mid-/upper-level
trough is forecast to approach from the northwest which
will weaken the aforementioned ridge. This will induce another turn
of Lidia to the northwest, then north to northeastward through
the end of the forecast period. There continues to be some spread
within the guidance envelope on the along-track forward speed and
when the turn back to the northeast occurs later in the forecast
period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is
based on a blend of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

Moderate deep-layer easterly shear should continue over Lidia
throughout the forecast period. Oceanic sea surface temperatures
remain warm along the forecast track, and the oceanic heat content
remains high. The system should remain a small compact system,
which may allow for fluctuations in intensity. GFS/ECMWF SHIPS
intensity probabilities of a 25-kt increase in 24 hr have increased
to 32 and 39 percent this cycle, respectively. While this is not
explicitly forecast, it is something where the trends will have to
continue to be monitored. The official intensity forecast has been
slightly raised in the short-term, with Lidia forecast to become a
hurricane in 48 h. Some weakening is forecast beyond 3 days due to
an increase in drier mid-level air and continued easterly shear. The
NHC intensity forecast lies near the simple corrected consensus,
IVCN intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.9N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.1N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 16.1N 110.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 16.0N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.0N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 16.3N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 17.7N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 18.1N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 051453
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023

...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LIDIA MOVING SLOWLY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 109.8W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. Lidia is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a general
northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through tonight. A
turn toward the west is expected by Friday, followed by a turn back
toward the west-northwest and then northwest later this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 051452
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
1500 UTC THU OCT 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 109.8W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 109.8W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 110.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 112.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 17.7N 114.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 112.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 050833
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a sheared cloud
pattern with the surface center located near the eastern edge of the
convective canopy. Although the upper wind pattern is quite
diffluent over Lidia, easterly shear continues to restrict the
intensification rate. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
yield 45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity remains
unchanged for this advisory. However, based on the 0411 UTC METOP-B
scatterometer overpass, this could be generous.

The statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS guidance indicates that the moderate
deep-layer shear should persist over Lidia through the majority of
the forecast period. Warm oceanic surface temperatures and a very
moist surrounding low- to mid-tropospheric thermodynamic environment
support modest strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC
forecast follows suit. The official intensity forecast shows a
peak intensity in 3 days and now indicates some weakening
afterward due to an increase in shear magnitude (a combination of
the cyclone's eastward trajectory and persistent easterly shear) and
is based on a blend of the SHIPS and IVCN intensity guidance.

Lidia's is still moving northwestward, or 315/4 kt, and is being
steered by a subtropical high located to the northeast over the
west coast of central Mexico. Around the 36-hour period, the ridge
is forecast to build temporarily and turn Lidia westward with some
further reduction in forward speed. In 72 hours, the cyclone should
gradually turn toward the northwest to north followed by a turn
toward the northeast near the end of the period in response to an
approaching sharp shortwave trough from the northwest, causing a
break in the aforementioned subtropical ridge. The NHC track
forecast is based on a blend of the TVCE and HFIP HCCA consensus
models and is shifted a little to the right of the previous
advisory beyond day 3.

Based on the METOP-B scatterometer swath, Lidia's wind radii were
increased slightly northeast through southwest.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.7N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.9N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 16.0N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 15.9N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 16.0N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 16.2N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 17.1N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 17.8N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 050833
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023

...LIDIA STILL HEADING NORTHWESTWARD BUT SLOWER...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 109.5W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 109.5 West. Lidia is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a general
northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through tonight. A
turn toward the west is expected by Friday night followed by a turn
back toward the west-northwest and then northwest over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 050832
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0900 UTC THU OCT 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.9N 109.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 111.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.9N 111.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 112.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.2N 113.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.1N 114.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 17.8N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 109.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 050237
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Lidia has maintained its small, sheared structure for the past
several hours. Convection has been waning, but infrared
geostationary imagery shows a growing burst of convection
developing west of the estimated low-level center. Microwave
imagery also revealed a large curved band around the western and
northern portion of the circulation. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity guidance nearly all agree on a 45-kt estimate,
and therefore, the initial intensity is held constant for this
advisory.

The storm has a somewhat uncertain motion since the center position
is obscured by the cirrus canopy, but the direction is estimated to
be northwestward, or 325/6 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico is
steering Lidia, and the storm is expected to maintain its current
motion for the next 12 hours or so. Then the ridge is forecast to
build and turn the cyclone westward in the next day or so, with a
slight decrease in forward motion. By day 5, global models predict
the ridge will erode and turn Lidia northwestward. There is still
above average spread in the model guidance, largely due to the
along-track differences in the westward progression of the storm.
The latest official track forecast has shifted slightly north of the
previous advisory and favors the simple consensus aid, TVCE.

There are competing factors contributing to the intensity forecast.
While the storm is forecast to be over warm ocean waters and in an
area of decent mid-level moisture, a limiting factor is still the
moderate-to-strong deep-layer vertical wind shear. Most models
show gradual strengthening, and minor adjustments have been made to
the latest NHC intensity forecast, which is closest to the IVCN
consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 15.6N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.2N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 16.3N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.1N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 16.0N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 16.1N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 16.5N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 17.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 050236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

...LIDIA MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 109.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 109.4 West. Lidia is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general
northwestward to north-northwestward motion with a reduction in
forward speed is forecast during the next day or so. Beginning
later Thursday, a much slower westward motion is expected.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 050236
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 109.4W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 109.4W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.2N 110.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 111.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 112.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.1N 113.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 16.5N 114.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 17.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 042038
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Lidia is experiencing a robust burst of convection very near the
center of low-level circulation in the past couple of hours, but
displays little overall change in appearance and organization since
this morning. Shortly after the previous advisory the low-level
center became exposed to the east of the deep convection on visible
GOES-18 satellite. Within the past few hours, the low-level center
is now under a deep burst of convection, allowing subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates this cycle from TAFB and SAB to remain at
T3.0/45 kt. Thus, initial intensity remains at 45 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion is north-northwestward or 335 degrees at 6 kt. A
mid-level ridge over Mexico will continue to steer the system
north-northwestward during the next day or so. Afterwards, a ridge
will build to the north of Lidia which will result in a slower
forward motion and a turn towards the west through the remainder of
the forecast period. There continues to be a large spread in the
along-track guidance as the system turns westward. Most of the
global models are faster, while the hurricane regional models and
HCCA corrected consensus aid are slower. Therefore, there is
increased uncertainty in the long range track forecast. The NHC
track exhibits little change from the previous advisory, and lies
between the faster global models and the slower regional models.

Models are in fairly good agreement that the moderate-to-strong
easterly vertical wind shear will persist over Lidia the next
several days. However, warm sea surface temperatures, a moist
environment and upper-level diffluence will allow slow strengthening
of the system. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast, and the intensity forecast lies near the IVCN consensus
aid.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.2N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.7N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 16.1N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 16.0N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 15.8N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 15.8N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 16.1N 114.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 16.6N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Konarik


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 042037
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

...LIDIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 108.9W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Lidia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This
north-northwest motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast
during the next day or so. Beginning late Thursday, a much slower
westward motion is expected.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Konarik


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 042037
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 108.9W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 108.9W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 109.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.8N 112.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.8N 113.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.1N 114.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 16.6N 114.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/KONARIK



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 041442
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Lidia continues to produce a large convective rain shield, with
a deep convective burst and cloud top temperatures around -80
degrees Celsius. An earlier microwave pass depicts that the system
continues to gradually organize with a mid-level core developing,
but the low-level center is still displaced to the east of the
mid-level core, due to easterly vertical wind shear. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates this cycle from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45
kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and intensity estimates
the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is north-northwestward or 335 degrees at 7 kt. A
mid-level ridge over Mexico will continue to steer the system
north-northwestward during the next day or so. Afterwards, a ridge
will build to the north of Lidia which will result in a slower
forward motion and a turn towards the west through the remainder of
the forecast period. There continues to be a large spread in the
along-track guidance as the system turns westward. Most of the
global models are faster, while the hurricane regional models and
HCCA corrected consensus are slower. Therefore, there is increased
uncertainty in the long range track forecast. The NHC track is
slightly faster than the previous, and lies between the faster
global models and the slower regional models.

Models are in fairly good agreement that the moderate-to-strong
easterly vertical wind shear will continue to persist over Lidia the
next several days. However, warm sea surface temperatures, a moist
environment and upper-level diffluence will allow slow strengthening
of the system. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast, and the intensity forecast lies near the IVCN consensus
aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.8N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 16.0N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 16.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 15.9N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 15.7N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 16.0N 114.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 16.3N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 041441
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

...LIDIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 108.6 West. Lidia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This
north-northwest motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast
during the next day or so. Beginning late Thursday, a much slower
westward motion is expected.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast over the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 041441
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.6W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.6W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.7N 112.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 16.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.3N 115.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 040842
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Earlier microwave imagery and recent geostationary satellite data
indicate that the low-level center of Lidia is located just beneath
the eastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud top
temperatures below -80 degrees C. The most recent subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0 (45 kt) and T2.5 (35
kt), respectively. Since the center appears to be slightly more
embedded within the deep convection, the initial intensity is raised
to 40 kt, using a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates. A very
recently arriving GMI microwave overpass shows that there has been
some increase in organization, but the mid-level center is
displaced about 30-40 n mi west of the low-level center.

The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330 degrees at
7 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A
mid-level ridge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to
steer the cyclone northwestward to north-northwestward during the
next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a narrow ridge is forecast to
build to the north of Lidia which should result in a slower westward
motion through much of the remainder of the forecast period. There
is still a large amount of along-track spread in the guidance after
the westward turn, with the UKMET and ECMWF on the faster side of
the guidance envelope. The GFS and HAFS-A/B models are much
slower. It should also be noted that there is unusually large
spread between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the various
multi-model consensus aids. This results in lower-than-normal
confidence in Lidia's long range track forecast. The NHC track
forecast is close to a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and regional
hurricane models.

The SHIPS guidance indicates that moderate-to-strong easterly
vertical wind shear will persist over Lidia during the next several
days. However, other environmental conditions consisting of warm
sea surface temperatures and a moist environment favor some
strengthening. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls from
slow intensification during the next several days, but it is a
little lower than the previous forecast at the long range. The
updated NHC wind speed forecast is a little above the latest HCCA
and IVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.0N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.3N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 15.8N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 15.7N 110.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 15.6N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 15.5N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 15.9N 114.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 040841
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

...LIDIA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 108.3W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 108.3 West. Lidia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwest
to north-northwest motion with a reduction in forward speed is
forecast during the next day or so. Beginning late Thursday, a
much slower westward motion is expected.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 040840
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 108.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 108.3W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 108.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.3N 109.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.8N 110.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 110.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.6N 111.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.5N 113.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 15.9N 114.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 108.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 040245
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Lidia has changed little since the last advisory. Last-light
geostationary satellite imagery showed a small, deep burst of
convection forming over the low-level center, with the majority of
the cold cloud tops in the northwestern portion of the circulation.
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have held
steady this cycle, and the initial intensity remains at 35 kt.

The storm is moving northwestward at an estimated 6 kt. A mid-level
ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue
to steer the storm generally northwestward for the next day or so.
By Thursday, Lidia should turn west-northwestward to westward along
the south side of the ridge as it builds westward. While the model
guidance generally agrees on the turn westward, there is still quite
a bit of spread in the along-track speed. The corrected consensus
aid, HCCA, favors a slower solution while the simple consensus aids,
TVCN and TVCE, show faster forward speeds and a progression farther
to the west. The latest NHC track guidance is similar to the
previous advisory and favors the simple consensus aids.

Lidia is in an environment of moderate-to-strong easterly vertical
wind shear. Global models predict that these atmospheric conditions
should persist for the majority of the forecast period. Still,
other conditions such as the warm sea surface temperatures and a
relatively moist surrounding airmass, should allow for some gradual
strengthening. Only minor adjustments have been made to the
official intensity forecast, which is close to the consensus aid,
IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.4N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 15.0N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.5N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.7N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 15.7N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 15.7N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 15.5N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 15.7N 114.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 040245
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023

...LIDIA HOLDS STEADY IN STRONG SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 107.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 107.9 West. Lidia is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest to
north-northwest motion with a slower forward speed will continue for
the next couple of days. Beginning on Thursday, a turn to the
west-northwest and west are expected.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 040245
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0300 UTC WED OCT 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 108.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 108.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 111.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 15.5N 112.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 15.7N 114.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 032042
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Lidia continues to exhibit a curved band on geostationary and
microwave satellite imagery this afternoon. Deep convection is
predominately developing to the west of the low-level center due to
the influence of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the
objective intensity estimates, ADT and AiDT from UW-CIMSS.

The system is moving northwest at 320/7 kt around the southwestern
edge of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A mid- to upper-level
trough to the northwest will begin to weaken the ridge allowing
Lidia to move northwest to north-northwest during the next 48 hours.
Most models are now in agreement with a more westward motion in
Lidia between 48 and 72 hours. There are large differences in the
speed of the system, with the UKMET accelerating towards the west
faster than the other global models. The forward speed of the system
was adjusted slightly faster for this advisory in the short term,
and the track forecast is in line with the simple consensus aids.

Lidia is still battling some moderate easterly vertical wind shear.
The ECMWF/GFS SHIPS guidance depicts that moderate shear will remain
over the system throughout much of the forecast period despite
otherwise favorable environmental conditions. The guidance for RI
continues to lessen the probability with this cycle. The GFS, HWRF,
and SHIPS models still strengthen Lidia into a hurricane beyond 2
days, however much of the other guidance, including the HAFS models,
does not intensify Lidia as much. The NHC intensity forecast was
lowered slightly from the previous advisory and continues to show
gradual strengthening to a hurricane by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 12.8N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 13.7N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 14.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.2N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 15.9N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 15.8N 114.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 032041
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023

...LITTLE CHANGE IN LIDIA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 107.6W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 107.6 West. Lidia is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest
to north-northwest motion will continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and Lidia
could become a hurricane late this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 032041
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.7N 108.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.5N 108.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 109.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 110.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 114.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 107.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/STEVENSON



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 031450
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Lidia continues to have bursts of deep convection this morning,
with cold cloud tops to -80 degrees Celsius. An earlier AMSR2
microwave pass depicted a curved banding feature developing to the
west and north of the low-level center, as Lidia's convection
continues to organize. A blend of subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates are around 35 kt, which is in good
agreement with the earlier scatterometer passes from this morning.
Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory remains 35 kt.

The system is moving west-northwest at 300/8 kt, around the southern
edge of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A mid- to
upper-level trough to the northwest will begin to weaken the ridge
allowing Lidia to move more northwest to north-northwest the next
few days. The guidance envelope is in fairly good agreement with
this general motion the next 48 hours or so. Beyond day 2, there is
a little more uncertainty in the forecast as models differ on the
timing of the mid-level ridge building back in as the trough lifts
out of the area. The GFS and ECMWF turn the system more westward as
the ridge strengthens, compared to some of the hurricane regional
models, like HAFS-A and HAFS-B, which continue a more northward
motion. The NHC forecast is closer to the ECMWF/GFS solutions
through the end of the forecast period, with a slow turn westward.

Lidia is currently dealing with some moderate easterly vertical wind
shear. The ECMWF/GFS SHIPS guidance depicts that moderate shear will
remain over the system throughout the forecast period. The system
will remain over fairly warm sea-surface temperatures near 30 C, and
a favorable upper-level wind pattern with divergence aloft. RI
parameters are slightly lower in the short-term compared to the
previous cycle. However, the ECMWF-SHIPS has a 55 percent chance of
a 65-kt increase in 72 hours. While this will not be explicitly
forecast we will continue to monitor these parameters and trends in
subsequent forecasts. The NHC intensity forecast is fairly similar
to the previous showing gradual intensification throughout the
period, and lies near the IVCN simple consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 12.3N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.1N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 15.4N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 15.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 15.9N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 15.9N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 031449
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023

...LIDIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 107.6W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1205 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 107.6 West. Lidia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast over the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and Lidia
could become a hurricane towards the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 031448
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
1500 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 107.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 107.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.1N 108.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 110.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 15.9N 112.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 107.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/STEVENSON



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 030846
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023

The system we have been monitoring for the last several days to the
south of the coast of Mexico (Invest 98E) has become better
organized early this morning. A small but growing burst of deep
convection has formed near or just west of where the estimated
center is, and some curved banding features are starting to take
shape. In addition, we had two scatterometer passes between 04-05
UTC, showing the system has developed a well-defined closed
circulation, with winds between 30-35 kt along the western flank of
the circulation. Subjective intensity estimates were T1.5 from TAFB
And T2.0 from SAB. However, based primarily on the earlier satellite
wind-data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Lidia
with an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory.

Lidia's initial motion is somewhat uncertain since it only recently
became well-defined, but it is estimated to be moving slowly to the
west-northwest at 300/8 kt. This current motion is a result of the
system moving along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. However, a mid-
to upper-level trough located to its northwest is expected to erode
this ridge somewhat, allowing the tropical cyclone to turn northwest
or north-northwest in the next 24-48 hours. While the track guidance
is in relatively good agreement on this initial poleward turn, the
guidance spread increases quite dramatically after 48 hours, with
uncertainty if this poleward motion continues, or if Lidia turns
back westward as the trough lifts out and allows a mid-level ridge
to build back in. For this initial track forecast, the NHC forecast
favors the latest GFS and ECMWF global model solutions, which show a
narrow ridge building back in, allowing for a slow westward turn by
the end of the forecast period. This track forecast also lies
between the simple consensus aid TVCE, and a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF solutions (GFEX).

For the intensity forecast, Lidia appears like it will have to deal
with moderate easterly shear for the next several days, though the
ECMWF-SHIPS has lower shear than the GFS-SHIPS. To complicate
matters, the initial structure of Lidia appears rather small,
potentially making the system prone to larger-than-usual changes in
intensity, both up or down. Even though the shear may keep its
intensity in relative check, other environmental factors are quite
favorable, with sea-surface temperatures near 30 C, and ample
mid-level moisture. In fact, with the lower shear, the ECMWF-SHIPS
rapid intensification index (RII) shows a 31 percent chance of a 30
kt increase in intensity in 24 hours, and a 57 percent chance of 55
kt increase in 48 hours. However, the dynamical hurricane-regional
model guidance is much more subdued, but they appear to be
struggling to capture the current small structure of the system.
Thus, the initial intensity forecast is a relative compromise,
showing gradual intensification, with is higher than the
regional-hurricane model guidance, but is lower than the ECMWF-based
SHIPS and LGEM models. This initial forecast is somewhat higher than
the consensus aids IVCN and HCCA early on, but they end up near the
NHC intensity forecast by the end of the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 11.8N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 12.7N 108.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 13.6N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 14.4N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 15.2N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 15.5N 109.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 15.7N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 15.7N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 15.5N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


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Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 030843
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
0900 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 107.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 107.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.7N 108.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.6N 108.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.4N 109.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 109.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 109.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.7N 110.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.7N 111.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 107.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



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