Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PHILIPPE-23
in Bermuda, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, United States, Virgin Islands British, Virgin Islands U.S., Anguilla, Canada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 061454
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe Discussion Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

The center we were following overnight has become untrackable this
morning and appears to have become absorbed by the nearby frontal
zone. In addition, the overall cloud pattern now has the look of a
classic extratropical cyclone, with Philippe's center resembling
the triple point of an occlusion. Based on these recent
developments, Philippe is being declared a post-tropical cyclone.
The intensity remains 45 kt, mainly based on continuity.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or
020/14 kt, but this movement is becoming less representative as the
larger storm system takes over. Philippe's remnant center and
another non-tropical low to the west are likely to interact and/or
merge with each other during the next day or two, but the overall
system is expected to move northward or north-northwestward at
increasing forward speed into the weekend. This will bring the
center of the post-tropical cyclone to the coast of Nova Scotia or
Maine in about 48 hours, and then inland toward eastern Quebec
before it becomes absorbed by a separate but larger extratropical
low.

The post-tropical cyclone still has an opportunity to strengthen a
bit over the next day or so due to baroclinic influences. Due to
the system's structure and forward motion, the strongest winds are
expected to be on the eastern side of the circulation and will
most likely affect portions of Atlantic Canada. Weakening is
forecast after the system moves inland.

Future information on potential flooding impacts in the Northeast
United States can be found in products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and
in products issued by local National Weather Service Forecast
Offices on the web at http://weather.gov.

Additional information on marine impacts can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to move over portions of
Atlantic Canada and New England this weekend. Interests in those
areas should be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and
heavy rainfall and monitor statements from their local weather
office. The rainfall may produce isolated to scattered instances of
urban and flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 30.7N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 07/0000Z 33.1N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/1200Z 36.3N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/0000Z 40.0N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1200Z 44.9N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 49.1N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 061453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe Advisory Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

...PHILIPPE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL POSES A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 64.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of the post-tropical cyclone and refer to products
issued by their local weather offices.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Philippe was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 64.6 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
16 mph (26 km/h). A northward or north-northwestward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the system will continue passing Bermuda today and
will reach the coast of Atlantic Canada or eastern New England
Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND: Strong winds are possible over portions of Atlantic Canada
and eastern New England this weekend.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across Bermuda today. An
additional inch or less of rainfall is possible.

For portions of New York and New England, and Southeast Canada,
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum amounts of 5
inches, are expected this weekend. Isolated to scattered instances
of urban and flash flooding will be possible.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda for the next
few days. Swells are also affecting portions of the southeastern
U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east coast to
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These conditions
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on potential flooding
from this system in the Northeast U.S. can be found in products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center on the web at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and in products issued by local National
Weather Service Forecast offices on the web at www.weather.gov.

Additional information on marine impacts from this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 061452
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 64.6W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 64.6W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 33.1N 64.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.3N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 40.0N 66.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 330SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 44.9N 67.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 49.1N 70.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 64.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 061146
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
800 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

...PHILIPPE BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 64.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through
the day today.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 64.9 West. Philippe
is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A
general northward motion with a further increase in forward speed is
expected through Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest
is forecast by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Philippe will pass near Bermuda later today, and then reach the
coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night
into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so, but
Philippe is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. An elevated surface observing station at the
National Museum of Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of
46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda today.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across Bermuda
through today. This rainfall could result in flash flooding.

For portions of New York and New England, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe
as it moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered
instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

For portions of Southeast Canada, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches,
with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it
moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered
instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

SURF: Large swells from Philippe and another weather system will
continue to affect Bermuda for the next several days. Swells are
also reaching portions of the southeastern U.S. coast and will
spread northward along the east coast to Atlantic Canada during the
next couple of days. These conditions are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 060859
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

Philippe's structure this morning is consistent of a cyclone in the
initial stages of extratropical transition. While the low-level
circulation center appears better defined than yesterday at this
time, most of the deep convection remains displaced well east of the
center, a result likely caused by nearly 30 kt of SSW vertical wind
shear. There is another cloud band of linear convection to the
northwest of the center, but this appears more related to synoptic
forcing caused by an upper-level cutoff low triggering non-tropical
surface cyclogenesis west of Philippe. The interaction of this low
with Philippe will likely dictate how quickly its completion of
extratropical transition is. The initial intensity this advisory
remains at 45 kt, which remains on the high end of the satellite
estimates.

Philippe appears to be taking a jog to the north-northeast this
morning with some acceleration, estimated at 15/16 kt. The storm is
caught in the flow between the aforementioned cutoff low to its
west, and a amplified mid-level ridge to its east. An additional
complication is the non-tropical surface cyclone forming to the west
of Philippe that may also interact with it over the next day or so.
The end result of this interaction is that there might be a
short-term north-northeastward deviation in Philippe's motion, but
then pivots back north-northwest as the two systems undergo some
binary interaction with each other. The track guidance this cycle
shows this short-term deviation, but end up roughly along the
previous forecast track after 24 hours. The NHC track forecast is
thus only shifted some early on, showing a bit more of short-term
eastward bend before Philippe resumes a northward and then
north-northwestward track, close to the simple and corrected
consensus aids.

While environmental conditions are becoming increasingly hostile for
intensification as a tropical cyclone, Philippe's winds may still
increase slightly over the next 24-36 h as it gets some baroclinic
enhancement from the aforementioned upper-level trough interaction
with the system. This trough interaction is also likely responsible
for initiating its extratropical transition, and the latest forecast
now shows Philippe completing this process and becoming a
post-tropical cyclone in 36 h. Given the current structure, this
could occur sooner after passing by north of Bermuda. Another even
more amplified trough should fully capture this post-tropical
cyclone, and weakening is expected after Philippe moves inland over
New England and Atlantic Canada on Sunday. Whats left of Philippe
will be absorbed by a much larger mid-latitude cyclone that is
expected to occlude over Quebec. The official NHC intensity
continues to lie near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Based on the forecast for Philippe to become post-tropical
on Saturday, and after coordination with National Weather Service
offices in New England and the Canadian Hurricane Centre, the
current plan is for hazards in New England and Atlantic Canada to
be handled via local non-tropical statements and not issue tropical
watches or warnings. We will continually assess this plan if the
forecast evolves and tropical watches or warnings become warranted.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are beginning on Bermuda and expected
to continue today, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the island into early
Friday. This could produce flash flooding.

2. Philippe is expected to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
New England as a post-tropical cyclone this weekend. Regardless of
Philippe's intensity or structure, interests in those areas should
be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall
and monitor statements from their local weather office. The
rainfall may produce isolated to scattered instances of urban and
flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 29.5N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 31.9N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 35.0N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 38.1N 66.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/0600Z 42.3N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1800Z 48.1N 71.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 09/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 060853
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

...PHILIPPE TAKING A JOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
BERMUDA THROUGH TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through
the day today.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 65.3 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general
northward motion with a further increase in forward speed is
expected through Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest
is forecast by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Philippe will pass near Bermuda later today, and then reach the
coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night
into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so, but Philippe
is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. In the last hour, an elevated surface observing
station at National Museum of Bermuda reported a sustained wind of
46 mph (74 km/h), with gusts up to 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda today.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across Bermuda
through today. This rainfall could result in flash flooding.

For portions of New York and New England, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe
as it moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered
instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

For portions of Southeast Canada, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches,
with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it
moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered
instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another
weather system but will increase later today as Philippe approaches
the island. Swells are also reaching portions of the southeastern
U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east coast to
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These conditions
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 060849
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 65.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 65.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 65.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.9N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.0N 65.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 38.1N 66.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 42.3N 67.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 48.1N 71.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 65.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 060548
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 51A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
200 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

...PHILIPPE APPROACHING BERMUDA, WHERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 65.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12-24 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 65.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through
Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass
near or just west of Bermuda later today, and then reach the coast
of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so, but Philippe
is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center. In the past hour, an elevated surface observing
station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently reported a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with gusts up to 47 mph (76
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
shortly.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches expected across Bermuda
through today. This rainfall could result in flash flooding.

For portions of New York and New England, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe
as it moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered
instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

For portions of Southeast Canada, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches,
with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it
moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered
instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another
weather system but will increase later today as Philippe approaches
the island. Swells are also reaching portions of the southeastern
U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east coast to
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These conditions
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 060232
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

Satellite imagery of Philippe shows little change in structure with
the center still exposed to the west of a growing area of deep
convection. Radar data from Bermuda indicate outer rain bands from
the system are moving across Bermuda. However, the winds so far are
below tropical storm force. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt,
which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity
estimates.

Philippe is moving northward at 14 kt. The storm is currently
moving between an upper-level cutoff low off the Florida coast, and
a ridge over the central Atlantic. This flow is expected to
accelerate Philippe further northward during the next few days. The
center of Philippe is expected to pass by Bermuda on Friday, and
reach the coast of Maine and Atlantic Canada Saturday night or
early Sunday. This forecast track has been shifted slightly to the
left of the previous advisory, closer to the HCCA and ECMWF models.

Philippe is behaving like a hybrid system. Even though the cyclone
is facing strong wind shear and lower SSTs during the next couple
of days, Philippe may pull most of its energy from an upper-level
cutoff low just to its west. Due to these conditions, some
intensification is predicted during the next day or so. Weakening
is expected as Philippe moves inland over New England and Atlantic
Canada this weekend. The official NHC intensity forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope.

Based on the forecast for Philippe to become post-tropical by
Saturday, and after coordination with National Weather Service
offices in New England and the Canadian Hurricane Centre, the
current plan is for hazards in New England and Atlantic Canada to
be handled via local non-tropical statements and not issue tropical
watches or warnings. We will continually assess this plan if the
forecast evolves and tropical watches or warnings become warranted.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the island into
early Friday. This could produce flash flooding.

2. Philippe is expected to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
New England as a post-tropical cyclone this weekend. Regardless of
Philippe's intensity or structure, interests in those areas should
be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall
and monitor statements from their local weather office. The
rainfall could produce isolated to scattered instances of urban and
flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 28.2N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 30.5N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 33.6N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 36.7N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 40.5N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1200Z 45.7N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 09/0000Z 49.5N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 060231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

...PHILIPPE TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON BERMUDA BEGINNING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 66.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-24 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 66.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through
Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass
near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then reach the coast of
Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but
Philippe is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches expected across Bermuda
through Friday. This rainfall could result in flash flooding.

For portions of New York and New England, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe
as it moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered
instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

For portions of Southeast Canada, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches,
with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it
moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered
instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another
weather system but will increase early Friday as Philippe approaches
the island. Swells are also reaching portions of the southeastern
U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east coast to
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These conditions
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 060230
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 66.0W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 66.0W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.5N 65.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 33.6N 65.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.7N 66.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 40.5N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 45.7N 69.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 49.5N 73.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 66.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 052346
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 50A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
800 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

...RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 66.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 66.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through
Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass
near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then reach the coast of
Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so. Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but
Philippe is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected across
Bermuda through Friday. This rainfall could result in flash
flooding.

For portions of New York and New England, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected as the storm
moves through the region Saturday and Saturday night. Isolated to
scattered instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

For portions of Southeast Canada, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches,
with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it
moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered
instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another
weather system but will increase further tonight as Philippe
approaches the island. Swells are also reaching portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east
coast to Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These
conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 052053
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

Philippe's convective structure is gradually evolving as it begins
to run into an old frontal zone to its north. A band of rain is
developing over the northern part of the circulation along the
old front and is beginning to move over Bermuda, while other deep
convection extends east and southeast of the center. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt based on this morning's aircraft
reconnaissance data. Another mission is scheduled into Philippe
this evening.

The current motion is a little faster toward the north, or 360/12
kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. Philippe should
continue accelerating northward over the western Atlantic during
the next 60 hours while moving between a mid-level high over the
central Atlantic and a deep-layer trough off the southeastern U.S.
coast. On this track, the center will approach the coasts of Nova
Scotia, New Brunswick, and eastern Maine Saturday night. After
that time, Philippe is expected to turn north-northwestward ahead
of an approaching mid-latitude trough, and it is forecast to become
absorbed by another area of low pressure over eastern Quebec late
Sunday. The NHC track forecast generally lies close to the TVCA
and HCCA consensus aids during the entire forecast period.

Diagnoses from the SHIPS model suggest that southwesterly shear
will increase to 30 kt or more over the next 12-24 hours. Because
of that, no intensification is anticipated in the short term.
Extratropical transition is likely to begin on Friday as Philippe
moves into and tightens the thickness gradient to its north, and
that process could cause the storm to strengthen a little due to
baroclinic influences. This scenario is supported by the GFS and
ECMWF global models, as well as LGEM, IVCN, and HCCA consensus aids.
Extratropical transition is forecast to be complete by 48 hours
(Saturday afternoon) as Philippe becomes fully frontal, but the
intensity is unlikely to change much before the center reaches land.
Weakening is forecast once Philippe moves inland, and it's likely
that the strongest winds from the system will occur on the eastern
side of the circulation, primarily over parts of Atlantic Canada.

Based on the forecast for Philippe to become post-tropical by
Saturday, and after coordination with National Weather Service
offices in New England and the Canadian Hurricane Centre, the
current plan is for hazards in New England and Atlantic Canada to
be handled via local non-tropical statements and not issue tropical
watches or warnings. We will continually assess this plan if the
forecast evolves and tropical watches or warnings become warranted.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the island today into
early Friday. This could produce flash flooding.

2. Philippe is expected to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
New England as a post-tropical cyclone this weekend. Regardless of
Philippe's intensity or structure, interests in those areas should
be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall
and monitor statements from their local weather office. The
rainfall could produce isolated to scattered instances of urban and
flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 27.0N 66.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 29.2N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 32.5N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 35.5N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 39.0N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/0600Z 43.8N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1800Z 48.6N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 052050
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

...OUTERMOST RAIN BANDS FROM PHILIPPE REACHING BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE ISLAND EARLY
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 66.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 66.2 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Saturday nigh. A turn toward the north-northwest is
forecast early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Philippe will pass near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then
reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine
Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but
Philippe is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected across
Bermuda through Friday. This rainfall could result in flash
flooding.

For portions of New York and New England, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe
as it moves through the region Saturday and Saturday night.
Isolated to scattered instances of urban and flash flooding are
expected.

For portions of Southeast Canada, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches,
with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it
moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered
instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another
weather system but will increase further tonight as Philippe
approaches the island. Swells are also reaching portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east
coast to Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These
conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 052050
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 66.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 66.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.2N 65.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.5N 66.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 39.0N 66.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.8N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 48.6N 71.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 66.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 051750
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
200 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS APPROACHING BERMUDA FROM THE SOUTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 66.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 66.3 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through late Saturday. A turn toward the north-northwest is
possible Saturday night or early Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Philippe will pass near or just west of Bermuda on Friday,
and then reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern
Maine Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two.
Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but
Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday
as it approaches Atlantic Canada and eastern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda today with rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches expected through Friday. These rainfall
amounts could result in scattered flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another
weather system but will begin to increase further later today as
Philippe approaches the island. Swells are also reaching portions
of the southeastern U.S. coast and will spread northward along the
east coast to Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These
conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 051454
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

Philippe's low-level circulation remains broad this morning with
most of the associated deep convection located within the eastern
semicircle. Despite the continued disorganized structure, an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission this morning measured peak
850-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt and SFMR surface winds of 40-45
kt. Based on these data, Philippe's initial intensity is raised to
45 kt.

The latest fixes suggest that Philippe is moving just west of due
north (355 degrees) at 10 kt. This northward motion, with an
increase in forward speed, is expected to continue through Saturday
while Philippe moves over the western Atlantic between a deep-layer
trough east of Florida and a mid-level high over the central
Atlantic. A north-northwestward turn is likely to occur as the
cyclone is approaching Atlantic Canada or eastern New England, due
to a larger trough approaching from the west. Since Philippe may
interact with a baroclinic zone and a developing non-tropical low
to its west in another day or two, the nuances of the track
forecast still need to be worked out, but nearly all of the track
guidance agrees on the forecast scenario described above. The NHC
forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid and brings the center
to the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine
between 60 and 72 hours. The center should then be absorbed by a
broad area of low pressure to its west over Quebec some time on
Sunday.

Little change in intensity is expected during the next day or two,
particularly since model guidance suggests that the shear over
Philippe could strengthen further. Despite the shear, some
additional strengthening is possible in about 48 hours when
Philippe could receive an injection of baroclinic energy from the
trough located east of Florida. That process should also
kick-start extratropical transition, and the NHC forecast shows the
transition complete by 60 hours (late Saturday) when Philippe is
located offshore of Nova Scotia. Weakening is forecast once
Philippe moves inland, and it's likely that the strongest winds from
the system will continue to occur on the eastern side of the
circulation, primarily over parts of Atlantic Canada.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect. Heavy rainfall will also begin to affect the island today,
which could produce flash-flooding.

2. Philippe is expected to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England as a post-tropical cyclone this weekend.
Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests in those
areas should be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and
heavy rainfall and monitor statements from their local weather
office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 25.6N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 27.7N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 30.9N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 34.2N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 37.6N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 41.8N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 47.4N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 051453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

...PHILIPPE STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA EARLY
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 66.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 66.3 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through late Saturday. A turn toward the north-northwest is
possible Saturday night or early Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Philippe will near or just west of Bermuda on Friday,
and then reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern
Maine Saturday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next day or two. Some strengthening is possible Friday night or
Saturday, but Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone on Saturday as it approaches Atlantic Canada and eastern
New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
to the east of the center. Saildrone SD-1041, located about 135
miles (215 km) southeast of Philippe's center, recently measured a
sustained wind of 38 mph (60 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (73 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda today with rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches expected through Friday. These rainfall
amounts could result in scattered flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another
weather system but will begin to increase further later today as
Philippe approaches the island. Swells are also reaching portions
of the southeastern U.S. coast and will spread northward along the
east coast to Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These
conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 051453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC THU OCT 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 66.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 66.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.7N 66.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.9N 66.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N 66.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.6N 66.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 41.8N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 47.4N 68.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 66.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 051151
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
800 AM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PHILIPPE A LITTLE
STRONGER BUT STILL IN A STATE OF DISORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 66.3W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 24.9 North, longitude 66.3 West. Philippe is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda on
Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts based on aircraft reconnaissance and Saildrone data.
Additional gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few
days. Philippe is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Saturday as it approaches Atlantic Canada and New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
to the east of the center. Saildrone SD-1041, located about
100 miles (160 km) east-southeast of Philippe's center, recently
measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph
(76 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1005 mb
(29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda today with rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches expected through Friday. These rainfall
amounts could result in scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
should continue to gradually diminish this morning.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
by tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further later today as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 050849
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

Philippe's low-level structure continues to be quite broad and
diffuse this morning. This structure has made finding the center
position quite a challenge. An earlier 0513 UTC GMI microwave pass
confirmed this broad structure, though it did hint at a tighter
mesoscale feature tucked under the convection to the southeast of
the broader low-level rotation seen on 1-minute GOES-16 imagery. The
initial intensity remains 35 kt this advisory, in agreement with the
TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate, in addition to an earlier received
saildrone observation that had sustained tropical-storm-force winds
well to the southeast of the broad circulation center.

Because the center is difficult to pinpoint, the initial motion is
also uncertain, estimated due north at 360/12 kt. The storm's
current motion is a result of it being steered between a mid-level
ridge positioned to its east, and a mid- to upper-level low
positioned to its west. This pattern should persist, leading to
Philippe gradually accelerating towards Bermuda over the next 24-36
h. Interestingly, the guidance has quite a bit of spread this cycle
in the short-term, likely related to how the current broad and
diffuse circulation interacts with the trough to its west, with the
HAFS-A/B runs notably pivoting Philippe further west early on than
the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track forecast ops to favor
the simple consensus aids, though it is worth noting the HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) is farther west due to the
influence of these HAFS tracks. I guess it is not all that
surprising to see Philippe throw one additional curve ball in the
track forecast given the extreme difficulty the track forecast for
this system has proven to be over the last couple of weeks. After
48 hours, the guidance actually comes back into better agreement,
showing a gradual bend north-northwest and northwest when Philippe,
now a post-tropical cyclone, reaches the coast of Atlantic Canada
or New England this weekend.

The intensity forecast presents its own challenges. Assuming that
Philippe remains a distinct entity relative to the developing
non-tropical low to its west, the storm could intensify while it
interacts with this upper-level trough to its west. However, its
unclear if this will prove to be a favorable trough interaction, or
if this trough will ultimately just absorb the tropical cyclone
without much increase in the winds. Regardless, after Philippe
passes north of Bermuda, increasing baroclinicity will hasten its
transition to an extratropical cyclone. However, FSU phase-space
diagrams suggest the system could undergo a warm-seclusion-type
transition, resulting in further deepening even after the system
becomes extratropical. The post-tropical cyclone is then expected to
weaken once it moves inland over Maine and/or Atlantic Canada. The
NHC intensity forecast continues to lie near the middle of the
guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. Heavy
rainfall will also begin to affect the island later today, which
could produce flash-flooding.

2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone by this
weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests
in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared
for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 24.8N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 26.7N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 30.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 33.3N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 36.7N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 40.2N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 45.2N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 09/0600Z 50.5N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 050844
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Thu Oct 05 2023

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BEGINNING
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 65.9W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 65.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda on
Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Philippe
is then forecast to become a Post-Tropical Cyclone on Saturday as it
approaches Atlantic Canada and New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center. In the last few hours, Saildrone SD-1041 reported a
wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda today with rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches expected through Friday. These rainfall
amounts could result in scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
should continue to gradually diminish this morning.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
by tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further later today as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 050842
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC THU OCT 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 65.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 65.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.7N 66.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 30.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.7N 66.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 40.2N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...230NE 210SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 45.2N 67.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 50.5N 76.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 65.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 050551
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 47A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
200 AM AST Thu Oct 05 2023


...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 65.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 65.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (16 km/h). This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda on
Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. In the last several hours, Saildrone SD-1068
located to the southeast of Philippe's center reported a sustained
wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 50 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda later today with
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches expected through Friday.

These rainfall amounts could result in scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
should gradually diminish early this morning.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
by tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further later today as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 050242
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

Philippe has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The storm still resembles an elongated trough in satellite images
with a north-south oriented area of deep convection extending a
couple of hundred north and several hundred miles south of the
center. Areas of heavy rain continue to linger near Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands. Since the system appears to be steady in
strength, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the
earlier aicraft data. This wind speed estimate is also in line with
the latest satellite intensity estimates.

The storm is moving northward at 11 kt in the flow between a ridge
over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low off the
Florida coast. This northward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next few days, taking the center
of the system across Bermuda in 36-48 hours. Philippe will likely
turn northwestward into Maine and Atlantic Canada this weekend when
another trough cuts off over the northeastern U.S. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

Nearly all of the models show slow strengthening during the next 2
or 3 days, which seems to be due to baroclinic influences from the
trough/low currently east of Florida. The mid- to upper-level
trough/low will likely merge with Philippe in 48-60 hours, which
should cause the system to develop frontal features and become
extratropical after it passes Bermuda. The post-tropical cyclone
is expected to weaken once it moves inland over Maine and Atlantic
Canada. The NHC intensity forecast also lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Heavy
rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday.

2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this
weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests
in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared
for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 23.8N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 25.4N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 28.4N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 31.9N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 35.3N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 39.0N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 43.3N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 51.6N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 050238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

...PHILIPPE STILL PRODUCING RAINS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 66.1W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 66.1 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda
on Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches expected through Friday.

These rainfall amounts could result in scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
should diminish on Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 050236
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 66.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 66.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 66.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.4N 66.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.4N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.9N 65.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.3N 66.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 39.0N 66.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.3N 67.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 51.6N 73.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 66.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 042346
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 46A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
800 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 66.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 66.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda
on Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
Some strengthening is possible on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with
rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches expected through Friday.

These rainfall amounts may result in scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
will continue to diminish during the next few hours.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Friday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 042038
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

Philippe still has an elongated circulation with discrete clusters
of deep convection extending well to the east and south of the
center. Aircraft and satellite-derived wind data suggest that the
maximum winds have decreased a bit, and Philippe is barely a
tropical storm. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
only measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 39 kt, and although
SFMR winds were reported between 35-40 kt, a comparison with ASCAT
data and a visual assessment from the flight crew indicate that
these data were at least 10 kt too high. The consensus of all
available data suggest that 35 kt is a more representative value
for the initial intensity.

The latest fixes indicate that Philippe has turned northward with
an initial motion of 350/10 kt. A northward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through the next 3 days while
Philippe moves between a deep-layer trough just east of Florida and
the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. After day 3, a
larger trough is forecast to move across eastern North America and
become negatively tilted, which is expected to cause Philippe to
bend to the north-northwest when it reaches Atlantic Canada or
eastern New England over the weekend. The track models (at
least the ones that carry Philippe for the entire forecast period)
remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track
forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid.

The forecast for Philippe's intensity and structure remains complex.
The 12Z GFS still shows a separate non-tropical low developing over
the western Atlantic, with Philippe becoming absorbed by the warm
front to the east of the low in 2-3 days. However, that appears to
be an outlier scenario at this time since the ECMWF, UKMET, and
Canadian models keep Philippe as a distinct and dominant low. Even
if it doesn't become absorbed, Philippe is likely to become
frontal by day 3, and the NHC forecast now shows the system as
extratropical by Saturday afternoon. Little change in strength is
likely during the next couple of days, but Philippe could strengthen
a little due to baroclinic influences while it goes through
extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast is below the
intensity consensus aids for the first 48 hours, but then is between
IVCN and the ECMWF after that time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect.
Heavy rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday.

2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this
weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests
in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared
for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 22.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 24.0N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.6N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 29.8N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 33.3N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 36.9N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 40.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1800Z 50.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 042037
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

...PHILIPPE TURNS NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 65.9W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
for Bermuda to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 65.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Philippe will approach and pass
near Bermuda Thursday night and Friday, and approach eastern New
England and Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite-derived winds indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast during the next day or so. Some strengthening is
possible on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1004 mb
(29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with
rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches expected through Friday.

These rainfall amounts may result in scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
will continue to diminish this evening.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Friday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 042037
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.9W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.9W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 66.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.6N 66.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.8N 65.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.3N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.9N 65.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 40.9N 65.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 65.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 041745
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
200 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING PHILIPPE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A northward motion at a
faster forward speed is forecast to begin tonight and continue into
the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will
approach Bermuda Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Some strengthening is possible late this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the east of the center. A saildrone located about 110 miles
(175 km) southeast of Philippe's center recently reported a
sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde and buoy data is
1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following additional
rainfall totals through today:

The U.S. and British Virgin Islands: 1 to 3 inches, with storm
totals of 6 to 12 inches.

Portions of northeast and southeast Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches, with
storm totals of 2 to 4 inches

Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches expected through Friday.

These rainfall amounts may result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Friday morning. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions
of the the Virgin Islands through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 041442
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

Visible satellite images this morning indicate that Philippe's
low-level circulation remains elongated, and the center is still
located on the northwestern edge of an area of deep convection.
This convective activity continues to produce heavy rains over the
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as northeastern Puerto
Rico. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on a blend of the
latest subjective and objective satellite estimates, with sustained
tropical-storm-force winds limited to the eastern semicircle.

Philippe has turned toward the north-northwest with an initial
motion of 335/6 kt. The flow between a strong mid-tropospheric
high over the central Atlantic and a deep-layer trough just off the
east coast of Florida is expected to steer Philippe northward, and
at a faster forward speed, beginning tonight and continuing for the
next few days. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
general scenario, although there is some east-to-west spread among
the models related to how Philippe interacts with a non-tropical
low that is forecast to develop to its west in about 2-3 days.
After day 3, a deeper trough is forecast to swing across eastern
North America, and much of the guidance suggests that Philippe
might bend back to the left a bit and approach Atlantic Canada or
eastern Maine in 3-4 days. Overall, the NHC track forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the TVCX and HCCA
consensus aids, and is also nearly identical to the previous
prediction.

Overall, moderate-to-strong vertical shear is expected to persist
over Philippe during the next few days, and very little change in
intensity is forecast during that time. Once Philippe begins to
interact with the developing low pressure to its west and the
associated upper-level trough, baroclinic influences could support
some strengthening. This strengthening is shown by most of the
intensity models, including the GFS and ECMWF global models, and
the official forecast therefore shows a peak intensity of 50 kt at
60 and 72 hours. Model-based phase-space diagrams, simulated
satellite imagery, and SHIPS diagnostics all suggest that Philippe
will become attached to a front between days 3 and 4 to the north
of Bermuda, and the official forecast therefore shows a completion
of extratropical transition by Sunday morning.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered
flash flooding across portions of the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands through today. Heavy rainfall from Philippe will begin to
affect Bermuda on Thursday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the
island.

3. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this
weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure,
interests in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be
prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 21.2N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 22.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 24.7N 66.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 27.6N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 30.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 34.2N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 37.8N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 46.8N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 52.9N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 041441
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

...PHILIPPE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BUT HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE TO DOUSE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A northward motion at a
faster forward speed is forecast to begin tonight and continue into
the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will
approach Bermuda Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Some strengthening is possible late this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following additional
rainfall totals through today:

The U.S. and British Virgin Islands: 1 to 3 inches, with storm
totals of 6 to 12 inches.

Portions of northeast and southeast Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches, with
storm totals of 2 to 4 inches

Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches expected through Friday.

These rainfall amounts may result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Friday morning. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions
of the the Virgin Islands through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 041441
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 65.7W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 65.7W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 65.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.7N 66.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.6N 65.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.8N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N 65.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.8N 65.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 80SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.8N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 52.9N 71.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 65.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040849
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

Philippe remains a disorganized tropical storm this morning, yet
continues to produce heavy rainfall over the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands. This activity remains displaced well to the southeast of
the estimated circulation center, and appears to be more associated
with the storm's inflow interacting with a well-defined mid-level
circulation just north of St. Thomas, which is evident from radar in
Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data received just after the last
advisory showed values around 40 kt in this area of convection, and
the initial intensity will be held at 40 kt. This value is on the
higher end of the Dvorak intensity estimates, but does match the
most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate.

The earlier scatterometer data suggested that Philippe had slowed
down some, possibly due to the ongoing convection to its southeast,
but its latest motion appears to have resumed a more northwestward
motion at 325/8 kt. The track guidance remains in agreement about
the storm turning more northward later today, with gradual
acceleration as the mid-level ridge that has been impeding its
poleward progress gradually shifts eastward, and Philippe becomes
steered between a deep-layer low to its west, and the aforementioned
ridge to its east. Compared to the previous cycle, the guidance has
shifted a bit eastward over the first 2-3 days of the forecast
period, and the latest NHC track forecast was shifted a bit further
east early on, but not as far as the consensus aids. After Philippe
passes by Bermuda on Friday, it is forecast to interact with a much
more amplified trough swinging into the northeastern United States
this weekend. This evolution may result in Philippe's track
potentially bending back north-northwest on Saturday, approaching
Atlantic Canada and New England as it phases with the larger trough.
There still remains quite a bit of spread in the track guidance by
96 h due to this interaction.

The intensity forecast remains murky. Right now, the low-level
circulation of Philippe remains diffuse, and even though vertical
wind shear could potentially slacken some over the next 24 hours,
the cyclone appears to be in no state to intensify in the
short-term. Thereafter, Philippe may have an opportunity to take
advantage of some synoptic mid-latitude dynamics associated with the
initial upper-level trough positioned to the west of its
circulation. Thus, some gradual intensification is shown between
36-60 h. With that said, some of the model guidance (like the most
recent GFS run) shows Philippe instead being absorbed into this
non-tropical feature, though that solution is not shown at this
time. Regardless, increasing baroclinicity should also begin to
initiate extratropical transition after 48 hours, which is forecast
to be fully complete sometime in the 72-96 h forecast time frame.
The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the middle of the
guidance envelope, and is also close to the HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach (HCCA).

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered
flash flooding across portions of the United States AND British Virgin
Islands through today.

2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through early today.

3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on
Bermuda late this week. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the
progress of Philippe, and Tropical Storm Watches could become
required for the island later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 20.5N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 21.4N 65.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 23.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 26.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 29.0N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 35.3N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 43.1N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 51.5N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040843
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 65.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe, as
Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast later today, followed by a faster motion
toward the north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Philippe will continue to move away from Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands today. Philippe will then approach Bermuda
Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
but some gradual intensification could occur after that time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through today:

The United States AND British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with
maximum amounts to 12 inches.

Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall is likely to result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
the Virgin Islands through early today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another couple of days. Swells are expected to
reach Bermuda by late Thursday. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040842
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.4N 65.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N 65.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 60SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 43.1N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 51.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040233
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

Even though the center of Philippe is more than one hundred miles
north of the Virgin Islands, heavy rains on the system's south side
continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
The cyclone remains poorly organized with the low-level circulation
appearing diffuse and convection remaining ragged and lacking
organization. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, which is near
the high end of the satellite intensity estimates.

Philippe is moving northwestward, or 310 degrees, at 10 kt. The
models are in good agreement in showing Philippe turning
north-northwestward to northward on Wednesday when the storm moves
between a mid- to upper-level high over the central Atlantic and a
cut off low off the Florida coast. These features should provide
the steering currents for Philippe through the remainder of the
week, causing a northward motion with some increase in forward
speed. The storm is likely to be near Bermuda on Friday. A larger
trough is expected to move across eastern Canada and the
northeastern U.S. late this week and cut off over the weekend. In
response, Philippe could turn northwestward into northern New
England or Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days.

The storm continues to feel the effects of west-northwesterly shear
and dry air entrainment, and its poor structure suggests that
little, if any, intensification is likely in the short term. The
models show some strengthening late this week and early this weekend
when Philippe likely gets some baroclinic support from the nearby
trough. This interaction should also cause Philippe to gain frontal
features and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days before it reaches
northern New England or Atlantic Canada. The NHC intensity forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered
flash flooding across portions of the United States AND British Virgin
Islands through Wednesday.

2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday.

3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on
Bermuda late this week. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the
progress of Philippe.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 21.2N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 22.8N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 24.9N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 27.8N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 30.7N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 33.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 40.5N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z 49.0N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040232
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 65.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a faster
motion toward the north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will continue to move away from the
Virgin Islands. Philippe will then approach Bermuda Thursday night
and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Wednesday:

The United States AND British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with
maximum amounts to 12 inches.

Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
the Virgin Islands through early Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another couple of days. Swells are expected to
reach Bermuda by late Thursday. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040232
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC WED OCT 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 65.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 65.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 65.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.2N 65.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.8N 66.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.9N 66.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.8N 66.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.7N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 33.9N 65.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 40SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 40.5N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 49.0N 69.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 65.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 032042
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

Philippe has continued to lose organization for much of the day.
Satellite images and aircraft fixes from this morning indicate that
the circulation has become elongated, and the remaining deep
convection has relatively little, if any, organization relative to
the center, which is now located just north of the Virgin Islands.
The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier SFMR data,
but this could be generous given the overall loss of convective
organization.

The current motion is northwestward, or 310/10 kt. Over the next
couple of days, Philippe is expected to turn northward between a
strong mid-level high over the subtropical Atlantic and a developing
cut-off low east of Florida, with its forward speed increasing in
2-3 days when it becomes positioned between these two features. The
northward motion is expected to continue through the end of the
forecast period as another deep-layer trough moves eastward across
eastern North America. The most notable change in this NHC forecast
is that the guidance has again shifted westward, both due to an
adjustment caused by Philippe's recent motion and a general westward
trend in the track guidance. The official forecast is close to the
TVCA consensus aid, but it's not as far to the west as the latest
ECMWF and HCCA solutions. The risk continues to increase for some
form of Philippe, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, to reach
Atlantic Canada or eastern New England in about 5 days.

The deep-layer trough located near the east coast of the United
States is likely to keep moderate-to-strong westerly or
southwesterly shear over Philippe for much of the forecast period.
As a result, little change in strength is forecast during the next
2-3 days. The GFS and ECMWF are now in good agreement that a
separate baroclinic/non-tropical low will develop just to the west
of Philippe in about 3 days. These two systems are likely to
interact, with Philippe becoming attached to the warm front, and
therefore becoming extratropical, by day 4. It's possible that
Philippe could strengthen slightly due to this baroclinic
interaction, and that scenario is shown in the official forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered
flash flooding across portions of the northern Leeward Islands and
the British Virgin Islands into early Wednesday.

2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday.

3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on
Bermuda later this week. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the
progress of Philippe.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.6N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 20.4N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 23.8N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 29.2N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 32.2N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 38.1N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1800Z 45.8N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 032041
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

...PHILIPPE BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 64.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 64.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a faster
motion toward the north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move away from the Virgin
Islands. Philippe will then approach Bermuda Thursday night and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts into early Wednesday:

Anguilla southward to Montserrat, including St. Kitts and Nevis,
and the British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts
to 12 inches.

The remainder of the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands:
1 to 4 inches

The U.S. Virgin Islands and northeast Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 032040
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 64.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 64.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 64.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 65.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.2N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.2N 65.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 40SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 38.1N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 45.8N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 64.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031742
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
200 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

...PHILIPPE PASSING BY THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A POORLY
DEFINED CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the poorly defined center of Tropical
Storm Philippe was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 64.4
West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today,
followed by a northward motion late Wednesday through Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to move away
from the Virgin Islands beginning tonight. However, the strongest
winds and heaviest rains will likely occur in the islands to the
southeast of the center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Philippe could begin to strengthen a bit late this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts into early Wednesday:

Anguilla southward to Montserrat, including St. Kitts and Nevis,
and the British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts
to 12 inches.

The remainder of the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands:
1 to 4 inches

The U.S. Virgin Islands and northeast Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the British Virgin
Islands through today. Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere
in the Leeward Islands today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 031449
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

Philippe's center has become exposed to the northwest of the deep
convection, and visible satellite images from this morning suggest
that it has lost definition. This is confirmed by the crew from an
ongoing Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, which
indicated a center uncertainty of 10 n mi. The plane has only
measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 41 kt and SFMR winds of
35-40 kt mainly within the southeastern quadrant over the waters
between the northern Leeward Islands. Dropsonde data also indicate
the pressure has risen to 1004 mb. Based on these data, Philippe's
initial intensity is set at 40 kt.

Philippe has sped up a bit, although it has not yet begun to turn
to right. The current motion is barely northwestward (305 degrees)
at 9 kt, with the center now passing just to the northeast of
Anegada Island in the British Virgin Islands. The track guidance
insists that Philippe will turn toward the north-northwest later
today as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high
over the central Atlantic. However, the shallow, sheared structure
of the cyclone may cause it to remain on the western side of the
guidance envelope in the short term, potentially delaying any
northward turn. The guidance is in good agreement that the
northward turn will eventually occur, but then there are significant
speed differences as the storm moves across the western Atlantic.
Primarily due to the storm's resistance to begin turning, the new
NHC track forecast has been shifted about 45-50 n mi to the west of
the previous prediction, but it lies very close to the latest TVCA
and HCCA consensus aids. Except for HWRF and HMON (which turn
Philippe to the east), the rest of the guidance is in more agreement
that the storm may approach Atlantic Canada in about 5 days.

Moderate to strong shear is expected to persist over Philippe for
awhile. Therefore, little change in strength is expected during
the next day or two. The upper-level environment may become a
little more conducive for strengthening when Philippe moves
northward over the western Atlantic, but confidence in that
occurring is still quite low. The NHC intensity forecast continues
to show some modest strengthening and is close to the HCCA
consensus aid. Global models fields, as well as phase-space
diagrams, indicate that Philippe could acquire frontal features as
it is approaching Atlantic Canada, and the NHC forecast therefore
shows it becoming post-tropical by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on Anguilla
and are possible on the British Virgin Islands through today.
Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in the Leeward Islands
today.

2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered
flash flooding across portions of the northern Leeward Islands and
the British Virgin Islands into early Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.9N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.8N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 21.2N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 22.9N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 27.3N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 30.1N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 35.5N 63.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 41.7N 63.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

...CENTER OF PHILIPPE PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 63.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Barbuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 63.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a
northward motion late Wednesday through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass just north of
the British Virgin Islands today and then move away from the
northern Leeward Islands beginning tonight. However, the strongest
winds and heaviest rains will likely occur in the islands to the
southeast of the center.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
couple of days. Philippe could begin to strengthen a bit late this
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts into early Wednesday:

Anguilla southward to Montserrat, including St. Kitts and Nevis,
and the British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts
to 12 inches.

The remainder of the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands:
1 to 4 inches

The U.S. Virgin Islands and northeast Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area and possible within the watch area today. Strong
gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in the Leeward Islands today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 031448
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 63.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 63.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 64.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.2N 65.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.9N 65.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.3N 65.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.1N 64.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 40SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 35.5N 63.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 41.7N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 63.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031154
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
800 AM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 63.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF ANEGADA BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands. The Tropical Storm Warning
for Antigua has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 18.6 North, longitude 63.5 West. Philippe is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should
continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by
tonight, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to move north of
the Leeward Islands today. However, the strongest winds and
heaviest rains will likely occur in the islands to the south of the
center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
two, but Philippe could begin to strengthen after midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts into early Wednesday:

Barbuda southward to Dominica: 4 to 8 inches

Rest of Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands: 3 to 5 inches

Virgin Islands: 1 to 3 inches

This rainfall is expected to result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area and possible within the watch area today. Strong
gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in the Leeward Islands today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 62.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 62.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 62.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 63.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.6N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.1N 64.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.9N 64.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.0N 64.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.3N 64.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 32.8N 62.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 38.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 62.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030546
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
200 AM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 62.4W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Antigua
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 62.4 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
general northwestward motion is forecast to begin later today. On
the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to continue
passing near the northern Leeward Islands this morning, and then
begin moving north of those islands later today. However, the
strongest winds and heaviest rains will likely occur in the islands
to the south of the center. A turn toward the north-northwest is
forecast by tonight, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two,
but Philippe could begin to intensify around the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts into early Wednesday:

Barbuda southward to Dominica: 4 to 8 inches

Rest of Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands: 3 to 5 inches

This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area today. Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in
the Leeward Islands through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030245
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

Philippe continues to be under the influence of significant
westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear. The center, which
is located on the northwestern edge of the main area of deep
convection, recently passed over Barbuda. Most of the stronger
convection is over the southern and southeastern portions of the
circulation, so the Leeward Islands should continue to experience
strong winds and heavy rains even when the center of the storm
begins to move north of those islands. The current intensity is
kept at 45 kt based on SFMR-observed surface winds from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is still investigating the system.

The cyclone has wobbled west-northwestward this evening and the
current motion estimate is 300/6 kt. Over the next few days,
Philippe should move along the western periphery of a mid-level
subtropical high pressure area. Most of the guidance model tracks
have shifted even farther west, with the exception of the GFS
deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts, which appear to be
eastern outliers at this time. Based the new dynamical model
consensus, the official forecast track is, again, shifted farther
west from the previous one. Later in the forecast period, the
spread in the guidance models increases. Notably,the GFS
prediction shows that a mid-tropospheric trough over the
northwestern Atlantic fails to capture the cyclone and take it
northward into Atlantic Canada, but keeps Philippe moving slowly
over the subtropical Atlantic at 5 days and even beyond.

Little change in intensity is likely for the next couple of days
while the storm remains in an environment of strong vertical wind
shear. In 2 to 3 days, the global models suggest that Philippe
could encounter a more favorable upper-tropospheric wind
environment, with more anticyclonic and diffluent upper-level winds
evolving over the system. Therefore, some strengthening is
predicted in the latter half of the forecast period. The official
intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance,
however.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across Barbuda and
Antigua tonight while Philippe passes just north of the area.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should continue
to monitor this system.

2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered
flash flooding across portions of the Leeward and northern Windward
Islands, particularly between Barbuda and Dominica, into early
Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.8N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.4N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.7N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 21.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 23.0N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 24.8N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 26.9N 64.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 31.6N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 36.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 62.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Antigua

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 6
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 62.1 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
generally northwestward motion is forecast on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to continue
passing near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early
Tuesday, and move north of those islands by late Tuesday. However,
the strongest winds and heavy rains will likely occur in the islands
to the south of the center. A turn toward the north-northwest is
forecast by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two,
but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the
middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts into early Wednesday:

Barbuda southward to Dominica: 4 to 8 inches

Rest of Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands: 3 to 5 inches

This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area tonight. Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere
in the Leeward Islands tonight and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030244
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 62.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 62.1W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 61.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 62.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.7N 63.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.3N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 64.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.8N 64.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 26.9N 64.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 31.6N 62.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 36.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 62.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 022355
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
800 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Antigua

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 6
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
generally northwestward motion is forecast through early Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to
continue passing near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and move
north of those islands on Tuesday. The strongest winds and heavy
rains will likely occur in the islands after the center passes. A
turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by late Tuesday,
followed by a northward motion on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the
middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 022157
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
600 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...PHILIPPE MAKES LANDFALL IN BARBUDA...

Satellite imagery indicate that the center of Philippe made
landfall on the island of Barbuda around 6 PM AST (2200 UTC).
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h).
The latest minimum pressure central pressure is estimated to be 999
mb (29.50 inches).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM AST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 61.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 022056
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

The center of Philippe remains exposed this afternoon with
some convection firing closer to the center over the last few
hours. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms remain displaced to the
south and southeast of the center as high northwesterly vertical
wind shear persists. The initial intensity is again held steady at
45 kt for this advisory, consistent with SFMR data from the Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission showing a large area
of 40-45 surface winds mostly on the east and southeast side of the
system earlier this afternoon. Another Air Force Reserve mission is
scheduled for this evening.

The storm continues to move to the northwest (305 degrees) at 6 kt
this afternoon. Philippe refuses to gain much vertical depth as a
tropical cyclone and has been steered more by the lower-level
ridge. Thus, the track forecast is again adjusted westward to
match recent satellite trends and in line with the weaker model
guidance. The cyclone is forecast to pass near Barbuda tonight
before turning north-northwest north of the Leeward Islands.
Around mid-week, Philippe should turn northward due to flow between
a mid-level trough in the southwest Atlantic and the subtropical
ridge. Uncertainty greatly increases after that point, with huge
differences showing up between the GFS- and ECMWF-based guidance.
The differences in model track forecasts are related to whether this
trough captures Philippe's circulation, causing Philippe to move
more to the north-northwest, or whether it is shunted more to the
northeast ahead of the trough. Consistent with model guidance, the
track forecast has shifted farther west from the previous advisory
and is in line with the consensus aids and mean ensemble track
guidance. Further adjustments to the west may be necessary.

Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to
prevent significant strengthening in the short term. Shear is
forecast to decrease a bit for a short period of time in the next 2
to 3 days and could allow for some strengthening. However, almost
all of the guidance is showing a less conducive environment, and
the NHC forecast reflects this trend, lying on the high end of
model guidance but in line with HCCA. The uncertainty is extremely
large at the end of the forecast period as some models are now
showing an extratropical transition due to the mid-latitude trough,
but a lot depends on how strong Philippe eventually becomes, which
has clearly not been very predictable during this storm's lifetime.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across Barbuda and
Antigua beginning this evening while Philippe passes near and
north of the area. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward
Islands should continue to monitor this system.

2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered
flash flooding over the northern Leeward Islands, particularly
across Barbuda and Antigua, through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.6N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.2N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.1N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 20.6N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 22.2N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 23.9N 63.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 26.0N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 30.6N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 022055
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR ANTIGUA...
...PHILIPPE LIKELY TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND SOME FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 61.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Antigua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Antigua

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 6
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 61.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is anticipated through early Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Philippe is expected to pass near the northern
Leeward Islands tonight and north of those islands on Tuesday. The
strongest winds and heavy rains will likely occur in the islands
after the center passes. A turn toward the north-northwest is
forecast to occur by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around
the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas beginning this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 022054
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 61.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 61.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 61.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 62.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N 62.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.6N 63.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.2N 63.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.9N 63.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.0N 63.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 30.6N 62.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 61.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEVENSON

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021754
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
200 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 61.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 6-12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 6-12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter near latitude 17.3
North, longitude 61.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest
near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is anticipated through
early Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast to
occur by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass
near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands tonight. The
strongest winds and heavy rains will likely occur in the islands
after the center passes.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around
the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches)
based on dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches

Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area and possible in the watch area beginning this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 021456
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

The center of Philippe has become exposed this morning with
convection and heavy rainfall displaced to the south and southeast
of the center as high northwesterly vertical wind shear persists.
The initial intensity is held steady at 45 kt for this advisory,
consistent with SFMR data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft mission showing a large area of 40-45 surface winds.

Center fixes and 1-min visible imagery during the morning indicate
that Philippe is moving erratically to the west-northwest (300
degrees) at 6 kt. The short-term part of track forecast is adjusted
westward to match recent satellite trends, which necessitates the
Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda. After passing close to that
island, Philippe is forecast to move northwest to north-northwest
around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the
subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days. Around
mid-week, Philippe should turn northward between the aforementioned
ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the southwestern
Atlantic. Beyond 96 hours, track uncertainty increases as to
whether the ridge or trough will dominate, which is also partially
connected to how strong Philippe becomes. Stronger solutions take
the system on a more east-northeastward track at longer range while
weaker solutions take the system more northward. Overall, the track
forecast for this advisory was adjusted farther west than the
previous advisory, after considering the latest ECMWF and ensemble
aids.

Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to prevent
significant strengthening in the short term. In a couple of days,
Philippe is expected to encounter a more favorable upper-level wind
pattern as it moves northward over the Atlantic. This could allow
for steady strengthening, and much of the guidance predicts that
Philippe will become a hurricane in 3 to 4 days. The intensity
forecast is consistent with the consensus aids, although the
uncertainty is pretty high at long range given how Philippe has so
far refused to intensify for days now.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across Barbuda and
possible across Antigua beginning this evening while Philippe passes
near or just northeast of the area. Interests elsewhere in the
northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this system.

2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered
flash flooding over the northern Leeward Islands, particularly
across Barbuda and Antigua, through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.1N 60.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.8N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.9N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 20.2N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 21.8N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 23.5N 62.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 25.3N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 29.2N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 32.5N 59.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BARBUDA...
...PHILIPPE COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 60.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter near latitude 17.1
North, longitude 60.7 West. Philippe is moving toward the
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northwestward motion is
expected to resume later today through early Tuesday. A turn toward
the north-northwest is forecast to occur by late Tuesday, followed
by a northward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Philippe is expected to pass near or just northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands tonight. Note that the strongest
winds and heavy rains will likely occur after the center passes.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around
the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches)
based off dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches

Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area beginning this evening and are possible in the watch area
beginning this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 021454
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC MON OCT 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 60.7W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 60.7W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 61.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 62.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.2N 62.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 62.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.5N 62.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.3N 62.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 29.2N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 32.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 60.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEVENSON

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021157
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
800 AM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...PHILIPPE COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 60.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Philippe is moving toward
the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northwestward motion
is expected to resume later today through early Tuesday. A turn
toward the north-northwest is forecast to occur by late Tuesday,
followed by a northward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass near or just
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around
the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches

Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas
beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020839
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

The overall structure of Philippe has changed very little during the
past day or so. Deep convection remains confined to the
southeastern portion of the circulation due to moderate to strong
northwesterly vertical wind shear. There is no significant banding
features, but the cloud tops within the main convective mass are
quite cold. Radar imagery from Barbados shows very heavy rainfall
is occurring just east of the Lesser Antilles. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt in deference to the earlier aircraft
data, and the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates which are
unchanged from before. The next Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft mission is scheduled to investigate Philippe later this
morning.

Center fixes during the past 6-12 hours indicate that Philippe has
turned northwestward (315 degrees) and is moving a little faster,
around 6 kt. Philippe is forecast to move around the southwestern
portion of a mid-level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic during
the next couple of days. After that time, Philippe should turn
northward between the aforementioned ridge and a mid- to upper-level
trough over the southwestern Atlantic. Around day 5, there is
increasing uncertainty as to whether Philippe will turn
east-northeastward or continue on a more northerly trajectory ahead
of a large trough moving into the eastern United States. Little
change was made to the previous forecast through 72 hours, but after
that time the track was adjusted northwestward closer to the GFS
ensemble mean. The new track is not as far west as the latest ECMWF
or the multi-model consensus aids.

Strong westerly vertical wind shear is expected to prevent
significant strengthening for about another 12-24 hours. After that
time, Philippe is expected to encounter a more favorable upper-level
wind pattern as it moves northward over the Atlantic. This should
allow for steady strengthening, and much of the guidance predicts
that Philippe will become a hurricane in 3 to 4 days. The NHC
intensity forecast follows suit, and is a blend of the HFIP
corrected consensus model and the multi-model (ICVN) intensity aid.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands through tonight while Philippe passes near
or just northeast of the area, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect for Antigua and Barbuda. Interests elsewhere in the northern
Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this system.

2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered
flash flooding, particularly across Barbuda and Antigua, through
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.1N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.7N 60.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 18.6N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 19.8N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 21.2N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 22.7N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 24.6N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 28.3N 60.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 31.7N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...CENTER OF PHILIPPE TO PASS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY...
...COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 60.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 60.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast to occur by late Tuesday, followed by a
northward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Philippe is expected to pass near or just northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but
Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the
middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches

Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas
beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020543
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
200 AM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...PHILIPPE NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 59.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM ENE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches
could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A track toward the
northwest is expected to continue today followed by a northward
motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Philippe is expected to pass near or just northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly
around the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by
later this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020236
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

Philippe's cloud pattern has not become significantly better
organized since earlier today. The system is still producing very
deep convection with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder mainly over
the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. There are no obvious
curved convective banding features at this time. Some new
thunderstorms have developed near and over the center and this was
noted by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters who have been investigating
the storm this evening. Observations from the aircraft indicate
little change in strength, with peak SFMR-observed surface winds
near 45 kt.

The tropical cyclone has moved rather slowly over the past several
hours and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or
300/4 kt. Philippe should turn northwestward to northward along
the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area for the
next few days. Then, the system should turn north-northeastward
and move through a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance
through 48 hours has shifted eastward on this cycle. In an attempt
to maintain continuity from the previous forecasts, the NHC track
is not shifted eastward as much as shown by the model consensus,
and the change through 24 hours is fairly slight. Late in the
forecast period, there is uncertainty as to how soon the cyclone
will move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The new GFS model
run suggests that the system may turn eastward and stay in the
subtropics through 5 days. If this turns out to be true, then
Philippe could have a prolonged existence.

The environment for Philippe in the short term does not appear
conducive for significant strengthening, with fairly strong
westerly vertical wind shear likely to continue to affect the
system through Monday. When the system moves farther north over
the Atlantic, it may encounter a region of reduced shear as
indicated by some of the dynamical guidance. The official forecast
still shows the system becoming a hurricane in the 3- to 5-day time
frame and this is also supported by the IVCN model intensity
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night while Philippe
passes near or just northeast of the area, and a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda. Interests elsewhere
in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this
system as additional watches or warnings could be required later
tonight or Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered
flash flooding, particularly across Barbuda and Antigua, through
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.6N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.0N 59.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.8N 60.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 20.3N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 22.0N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 23.8N 61.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 27.5N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 30.1N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020235
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

...SLOW-MOVING PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING
TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 59.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches
could be required tonight or on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 59.1 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A track
toward the northwest is forecast on Monday followed by a northward
motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Philippe is expected to pass near or just northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the
middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by
Monday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 012353
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
800 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 59.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches
could be required tonight or on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 59.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A track
toward the northwest is forecast through Monday followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the
middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily east and southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by
Monday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 012034
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

The structure of Philippe has not changed much since this morning. A
large area of deep convection remains in the southeastern quadrant
of the cyclone, with a small burst near the center. The initial
wind speed is held at 45 kt, per the latest satellite
classifications, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to be inside the storm tonight.

The southward progress of Philippe has thankfully stopped today,
and recent fixes show it moving between west-northwest and
northwest at about 6 kt. A building ridge well to the northeast
should steer the storm generally northwestward tonight and Monday,
with a turn to the north forecast on Tuesday while the system moves
around the western periphery of the ridge. Eventually a faster
north-northeastward motion is anticipated at long range as the storm
enters the mid-latitudes. While the track forecast has been
adjusted a bit to the east, this should not be interpreted as the
end of any threat to the Leeward Islands with still some models
near those islands. Notably, a very strong rain band on the
southern side of Philippe will be very close to moving over the
northern Leeward Islands, and it could turn out that rainfall and
flooding would be the main hazard of the storm.

There's been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning from the
last cycle, with strong shear near Philippe expected to limit
intensification during the next couple of days. There remains a
decent chance that the shear could relax by the middle of the week,
allowing Philippe to become a hurricane after it recurves into the
subtropical central Atlantic. Guidance has been inconsistent at
long range with the storm, so the best course of action seems to
be to hold the forecast steady to see if any notable trends emerge.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night while Philippe
passes near or just northeast of the area, and a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda. Interests elsewhere
in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this
system as additional watches or warnings could be required later
today or tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered
flash flooding, particularly across Barbuda and Antigua, through
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 16.4N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 17.0N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.7N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.7N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.9N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 21.4N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 23.1N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 26.9N 61.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 30.0N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 012033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO PHILIPPE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 59.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches
could be required tonight or on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 59.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A track
toward the northwest is forecast through Monday followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Philippe could
begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by
Monday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 012032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 185NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 58.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 59.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.7N 60.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.7N 61.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.9N 62.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.4N 62.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.1N 62.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 26.9N 61.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 30.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 59.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011743
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
200 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT STARTING OVERNIGHT FOR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 58.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 58.8 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through
tonight. A track toward the northwest with an increase in forward
speed is expected on Monday, followed by a northward motion on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast
to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on
Monday and Monday night.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Philippe could
begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles (275 km),
primarily east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by
Monday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.10.2023

TROPICAL STORM RINA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 54.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2023 24.7N 54.4W WEAK
00UTC 02.10.2023 27.0N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2023 29.6N 53.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 58.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2023 16.3N 58.6W WEAK
00UTC 02.10.2023 17.6N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2023 18.0N 60.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2023 19.0N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2023 20.5N 62.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2023 22.0N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2023 24.0N 62.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2023 26.0N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2023 27.8N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2023 29.6N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2023 30.2N 60.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2023 30.1N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2023 30.1N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2023 29.1N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2023 28.6N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011611

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 011456
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

Philippe is not a well organized tropical cyclone at this time,
with any of the associated deep convection about a degree southeast
of the center due to persistent northwesterly shear. Satellite
intensity estimates are about the same as before, so the initial
wind speed is held 45 kt on this advisory. A scatterometer pass
just received also supports that value.

The storm appears to be moving westward this morning, judging from
fixes on the visible imagery. Weak mid-level ridging is forecast to
build east of the tropical cyclone soon, which probably will steer
Philippe toward the west-northwest or northwest later today, and
eventually northward as it moves into the subtropics. The
short-term forecast steering is extremely challenging due to the
changing depth of associated deep convection, the cyclone vortex
strength, and the related steering flow. Regardless, it is clear
that the risk to the northern Leeward Islands has increased, and the
new forecast is adjusted west of the previous one, which
necessitated the tropical storm watches. Further westward shifts
and other watches/warnings are possible later today since Philippe
has not been a well-behaved system in such a complex steering flow.

Strong shear should continue near Philippe for the next day or so,
leading to little overall change in strength during that time. A
gradual lessening of the shear is anticipated by Tuesday, but model
guidance is in poor agreement on whether the shear will be low
enough for significant strengthening, like many of the regional
hurricane models suggest, or if Philippe stays sheared like the
ECMWF solution. For now, the forecast takes the middle of the road
in the guidance, leading to little change from the last NHC
prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night while Philippe
passes near or just northeast of the area, and a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued for Antigua and Barbuda. Interests elsewhere
in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this
system as additional watches or warnings could be required later
today or tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered
flash flooding, particularly across Barbuda and Antigua, through
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 16.1N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 17.1N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.9N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 19.0N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 20.3N 62.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 22.0N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 25.8N 61.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 29.5N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

...TRACK OF PHILIPPE SHIFTING WESTWARD SO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
ISSUED FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 58.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm for Antigua
and Barbuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 58.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion is expected to begin today and continue
into tonight. A turn toward the northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected on Monday, followed by a northward
motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe
is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly
around the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles (275 km),
primarily east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by
Monday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 011452
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 58.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 135SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 58.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 58.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 60.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.9N 61.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 62.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.3N 62.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.0N 62.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.8N 61.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 29.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 58.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010851
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

The center of Philippe has become exposed to the northwest of the
large convective mass seen infrared satellite imagery. A very
timely AMSR2 microwave overpass helped to pinpoint the center
location around 0600 UTC, and since that time the center has become
more apparent in the geostationary satellite imagery. Philippe is
still producing a large area of convection with clouds tops colder
than -80 deg C to the southeast of its center. The latest Dvorak
satellite estimates range from 45 kt from SAB to 55 kt from TAFB.
The initial intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with the
earlier scatterometer data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Philippe again this morning.

Philippe is moving a little faster toward the west overnight. A
weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should begin
to steer Philippe west-northwestward to northwestward by later
today, and that motion is expected to continue into Monday. The
track guidance has once more shifted westward during the first
couple of days, which has again necessitated a westward shift in
the NHC track forecast during that time. The new track forecast is
a little closer to the northern Leeward Islands. It should be
noted that the model guidance continues to show very little outward
extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the western semicircle of
Philippe through 48 hours, however given the typical track forecast
uncertainty tropical storm watches or warnings could be required
for a portion of the northern Leeward Islands later today. After
48 hours, Philippe is expected to turn northward as it moves around
the western side of the ridge. Later in the forecast period, a
mid-tropospheric trough over the western Atlantic should cause
Philippe to turn north-northeastward.

The global models and the SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that
the west-northwesterly vertical shear over Philippe will remain
strong during the next couple of days. Therefore, little change in
strength is expected during that time. Later in the forecast
period, the vertical shear could lessen somewhat allowing Philippe
to strengthen. The intensity models are generally lower this
cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted downward but it
remains at the upper end of guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night. Interests
there should continue to monitor the progress of this system as
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for a portion
of that area later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 16.4N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 16.9N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 17.6N 59.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 19.2N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 20.4N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 25.5N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 28.9N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

...PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 58.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may
be required for a portion of that area later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 58.2 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion is expected to begin today and continue
into tonight. A turn toward the northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward
motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe
is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or
so. Some strengthening is possible by late Monday as Philippe
begins to move north of the Leeward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce 1 to 4 inches of rain
across portions of the Leeward Islands by Monday into Tuesday. This
rainfall may result in isolated flash flooding.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible in portions of the northern
leeward islands by Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010846
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 58.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 135SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 58.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 57.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.9N 58.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.6N 59.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N 61.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.4N 61.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 25.5N 61.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 28.9N 59.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 58.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010245
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

Philippe's convective cloud pattern remains rather ragged-looking,
but there are very cold cloud tops of -80 deg C or colder over the
southeastern part of the circulation. The center of circulation is
estimated to be near the northwestern edge of the main area of deep
convection. There is little evidence of banding features at this
time. The current intensity estimate is kept at 45 kt in agreement
with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB although objective
satellite estimates are somewhat lower. A recent scatterometer
pass showed slightly higher winds over the southeastern quadrant
but these are believed to be rain-inflated. Another Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Philippe tomorrow
morning to check on the intensity of the storm.

The motion is somewhat uncertain since the center is not easy to
locate in nighttime satellite imagery. However it appears that
Philippe is moving more to the right and the initial motion
estimate is now 230/4 kt. Steering currents are expected to remain
ill-defined for the next day or two, but a weak mid-level high to
the northeast of the system should cause Philippe to turn
northwestward on Sunday. In about 3 days, a turn to the north is
expected as the cyclone moves along the western side of the high.
Late in the forecast period, the system should turn toward the
north-northeast on the southeast side of a mid-tropospheric trough
over the western Atlantic. The latest track guidance for the next
48 hours or so, in particular the new GFS, has shifted westward
from the previous cycle. This has resulted in a westward shift of
the model consensus and necessitated a westward shift in the NHC
track as well, which is now closer to the northern Leeward Islands.
It should be noted that the model guidance continues to show very
little outward extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the
western semicircle of Philippe through 48 hours, and this forecast
still does not necessitate the issuance of tropical storm watches
for those islands. However, interests there should continue to
monitor the progress of Philippe.

Based on the global model forecasts, the system is likely to
continue experiencing significant vertical wind shear for the next
day or two. Therefore only a slow increase in intensity is
forecast during the next couple of days. Later in the forecast
period, vertical shear is expected to lessen somewhat which should
allow the system to strengthen into a hurricane, as suggested by
the regional hurricane model, HAFS-A. However, the official
intensity forecast is now above most of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 16.1N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 16.5N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 17.1N 58.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 17.8N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 18.6N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 19.6N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 21.1N 61.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 24.8N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 28.5N 59.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 57.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday and
Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Philippe could become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010243
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 57.0W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 135SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 57.0W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N 57.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.1N 58.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N 59.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N 60.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.6N 61.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.1N 61.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 24.8N 61.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 28.5N 59.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 302043
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

Philippe remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Its low-level center
has become increasingly separated from the deep convection today.
Visible satellite images and and fixes from the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters indicate the center is farther south and slightly east of
our previous estimates. In terms of Philippe's current intensity,
there were mixed signals in the aircraft data. The peak 850-mb
flight-level winds were only 49 kt, and a center dropsonde indicated
no change of the minimum pressure (999 mb) since the previous
flight. On the other hand, the SFMR retrievals showed winds of 45-50
kt outside of convection that were visually supported by the flight
crew, but a coincident dropsonde reported much lower near-surface
wind speeds. Given the conflicting data and less impressive
satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The tropical storm has continued to move southwestward today, with
an initial motion of 215/4 kt. In the near term, the models suggest
Philippe will not move very much and could drift erratically through
early Sunday while Tropical Storm Rina passes to its north. Then,
there is general agreement that the storm will turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest around the western extent of a low- to
mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. While there is still a
large spread in the track guidance during the 24-72 h time frame, it
is noteworthy that the 12z ECMWF has trended eastward this cycle and
shows Philippe passing farther east of the northern Leeward Islands.
The latest NHC track forecast is slightly farther south and west
early in the forecast due to the center relocation. However, the
updated prediction ends up near or slightly east of the previous
forecast at 36-72 h, in best agreement with the TVCA simple
consensus. By days 4-5, Philippe is forecast to accelerate northward
and northeastward between a central Atlantic ridge and a deep-layer
trough over the western Atlantic.

Only modest strengthening is forecast during the next 24-36 h while
Philippe contends with moderate to strong northwesterly shear. The
upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
intensification in a couple of days or so, which should allow the
cyclone to become more vertically aligned and establish an inner
core. Thus, more strengthening is forecast at days 2-4 while
Philippe moves over the very warm SSTs of the central Atlantic,
which is supported by almost all of the intensity guidance. The NHC
forecast calls for Philippe to become a hurricane by 60 h with
continued strengthening thereafter. The peak intensity was raised to
bring the NHC forecast slightly closer to the latest HCCA and IVCN
aids at days 4-5, but it is noted that the regional hurricane models
are even stronger than the current NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 16.3N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 16.2N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 16.6N 57.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 17.4N 58.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 18.5N 58.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 19.9N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 21.6N 59.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 25.7N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 29.5N 56.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 302042
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

...PHILIPPE STILL SHEARED AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 56.5W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 56.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest with an increase in forward speed is
expected Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward motion on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Philippe could become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 302042
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 56.5W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 15SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 56.5W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 56.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.2N 56.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.6N 57.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.4N 58.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 58.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.6N 59.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 25.7N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 29.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 56.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 301455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

The satellite presentation of Philippe has not changed much this
morning. The partially exposed low-level circulation lies on the
western edge of a deep convective mass, as northwesterly shear
continues to affect the storm's stucture. Recent UW-CIMSS objective
estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
have generally held steady, and so the initial intensity remains at
45 kt for this advisory. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
are scheduled to investigate the system later today.

The estimated initial motion of Philippe is southwestward (210/4
kt). Philippe is not expected to move much during the next 12-24 h,
although there is uncertainty even in the near term related to the
extent of the interaction between Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina
to its northeast. Most of the models show a slow and generally
westward motion during the next day or so, which is reflected in
the NHC forecast. Then, model spread increases regarding the timing
of Philippe's turn toward the northwest and north early next week.
Stronger model solutions (GFS, HAFS-A) depict an earlier turn along
the eastern side of the guidance envelope, while weaker models
(ECMWF, UKMET) show the storm making it west of 60W before turning.
Given the greater-than-normal model spread, the NHC forecast remains
near the TVCA and HCCA aids for this portion of the forecast, with
a slight westward adjustment from the previous prediction. By days
4-5, Philippe is forecast to move faster toward the north and
northeast between a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic and a
deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic.

Given the sheared structure of Philippe, only minor intensity
fluctuations are expected during the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the
shear is generally forecast to decrease on Monday and Tuesday,
although the magnitude remains at least somewhat dependent on how
far west Philippe tracks. Based on our latest track forecast, it is
assumed that the shear will relax enough to be conducive for some
strengthening over the 29-29.5C SSTs, and this prediction shows
Philippe becoming a hurricane by 60 h. Overall, the environment
appears reasonably favorable for continued strengthening through
days 4-5 as the cyclone moves into the subtropical Atlantic. The
updated intensity forecast has been raised during this period to
show additional strengthening, although it still lies below the
IVCN and HCCA aids, so further adjustments could be necessary.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 16.9N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 16.8N 56.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 17.0N 57.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 17.6N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 18.5N 58.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 19.7N 59.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 21.0N 59.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 24.9N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 28.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 301454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE PHILIPPE LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 56.3W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 56.3 West. Philippe is
moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow turn toward
the west-southwest and west is expected through early Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest Sunday
night through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Philippe could become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 301454
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 56.3W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 56.3W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 56.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.8N 56.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.0N 57.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.6N 58.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.5N 58.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 59.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.0N 59.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.9N 59.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 28.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 56.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 300835
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter crew investigated Philippe a
few hours ago and found that the minimum pressure had fallen to 999
mb, however the maximum winds do not appear to have increased. The
maximum flight-level wind was 46 kt at 700 mb, and SFMR readings
outside of deep convection were as high as 45 kt (SFMR measurements
higher than 50 kt appeared questionable due to coincident heavy
rain). The low-level center remains located on the northwestern
edge of the deep convection due to continued shear.

The reconnaissance fixes showed that Philippe has been moving toward
the south-southwest (200 degrees) at about 4 kt. The storm has
moved a little farther south than expected, possibly due to a more
pronounced binary interaction with Tropical Storm Rina about 450 n
mi to its east-northeast. As the interaction continues, Philippe is
forecast to move slowly toward the west and then northwest during
the next few days. However, there is still quite a bit of model
spread in how far west Philippe will get before it turns, and the
ECMWF and HAFS-B models in particularly bring the storm very close
to the northern Leeward Islands in about 48 hours. The NHC track
forecast has been shifted west of the previous prediction and lies
just to the west of the TVCA consensus aid. It is noteworthy that
several models and ensemble members still lie west of the new
forecast, and it's possible that additional adjustments may be
required in future forecast cycles. All models show Philippe
accelerating toward the north and north-northeast by days 4 and 5,
steered by the flow between a mid-level high over the central
Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic.

The intensity forecast remains tricky and is complicated by
competing positive and negative environmental factors. On one hand,
moderate-to-strong northwesterly shear is likely to continue at
least for the next 48 hours. However, the magnitude of the shear
will depend on Philippe's exact location, and it could also be
offset by a more diffluent upper-level environment. Since the storm
has already been overachieving in the sheared environment, the NHC
intensity forecast shows gradual strengthening during the next few
days, and is near or just below the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids
through 60 hours. The atmosphere could become more favorable for
strengthening after that time, and the NHC forecast now shows
Philippe reaching hurricane intensity while it recurves toward the
subtropical Atlantic. It's worth noting that this new forecast is
still on the conservative side, and that many of the intensity
models and consensus aids are at least 20 kt higher on days 4 and 5.
Only the ECMWF and its SHIPS and LGEM derivatives remain on the
weaker end of the scale and don't bring Philippe to hurricane
strength.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 17.1N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 16.9N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 16.9N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 17.3N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 18.0N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 19.2N 59.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 20.7N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 24.1N 59.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 28.1N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 300835
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO LINGER JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 55.9W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 55.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow turn
toward the southwest and west is expected through tonight, followed
by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest Sunday night and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Philippe could become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 300834
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 55.9W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 55.9W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 55.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.9N 56.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.3N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.0N 58.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.2N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.7N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 24.1N 59.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 28.1N 56.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 55.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 300237
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

Deep convection continues to pulse over the southeastern portion of
Philippe's circulation this evening. The center is located near
the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to moderate
westerly shear. The intensity is held at 45 kt, and is based on
the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and a T3.0 (45 kt)
subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. Another Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled overnight, and this
mission should provide a full assessment of Philippe's structure
and intensity.

The earlier aircraft center fixes and more recent satellite
position estimates indicate that Philippe is moving slowly
southwestward. This motion is being influenced by Philippe's
interaction with Tropical Storm Rina located to Philippe's
east-northeast. As the two tropical cyclone's continue to
interact, Philippe is expected to move slowly west-southwestward
to westward during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the
distance between the tropical cyclones should increase, and
Philippe is forecast to turn northwestward when a mid-level ridge
builds over the central Atlantic. After 72 hours, Philippe is
expected to turn northward between the aforementioned ridge and a
mid- to upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic.
Although the models are in general agreement on this scenario,
there is significant spread on the longitude of the northward turn,
and on how fast Philippe moves later in the period. The updated
NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids, and very
close to the previous advisory.

The moderate shear that has been affecting Philippe the past few
days could lessen during the next day or two. This should allow
for some gradual strengthening over the weekend. After that time,
there is a bifurcation in the intensity guidance with the
GFS-based SHIPS model, the HMON, the HWRF, and even the GFS showing
a more favorable upper-air environment and more significant
deepening with a track farther east. Meanwhile, the ECMWF-based
SHIPS guidance, and the HAFS-A and HAFS-B which show a more westward
track keeps stronger southwesterly vertical wind shear over the
storm and therefore less strengthening. The NHC intensity foreast
is near the middle of these two scenarios, but is a bit more
conservative than the lastest intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 17.6N 55.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 17.3N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.2N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 17.8N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 18.7N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 20.2N 58.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 23.4N 58.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 27.3N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 300236
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

...PHILIPPE MEANDERING EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 55.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 55.8 West. Philippe is
moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday night. A turn toward the west
and northwest is forecast Sunday and Sunday night, and a slightly
faster northwest to north-northwest motion is expected by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 300236
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 55.8W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 55.8W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 55.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.3N 56.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.2N 56.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.2N 58.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 23.4N 58.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 27.3N 57.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 55.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 292033
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

Satellite imagery shows the center of Philippe has become exposed
again due to 15-20 kt of mid-level westerly shear. Deep convection
is generally confined to the southeast portion, with a growing band
to the south of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
investigated Philippe this afternoon and found the minimum pressure
to be 1002 mb and winds to support an intensity of 45 kt. Based on
the aircraft and ASCAT data, tropical-storm-force winds extend well
east and southeast of the center.

Philippe is moving a little faster this afternoon, but still
relatively slowly as it continues in a general southwest direction.
The current track is due to its interaction with Tropical Storm Rina
several hundred miles to its east. Since these tropical cyclones
are expected to continue to interact through the weekend, Philippe
is forecast to crawl southwestward through Sunday. After that time,
Rina is expected to separate from Philippe as a mid-level ridge
builds over the subtropical central Atlantic. In response, Philippe
should turn sharply northward early next week. Recent guidance has
shown an overall shift to the west, with the 12Z ECMWF model about
60 n mi west of its previous run. The NHC track forecast has also
been nudged to the west toward the various consensus models.

Although Philippe is still being affected by shear, the environment
over the next couple of days appears to become less hostile.
Moderate wind shear, upper-level diffluence, increasing mid-level
humidities around the storm, and very warm SSTs should allow
Philippe to gradually strengthen through the weekend. Beyond that
time, the intensity forecast becomes more dependent on the future
track. If Philippe tracks along the western side of the guidance, it
will likely weaken due to stronger wind shear. Whereas, if the
system tracks east of the NHC track, it could strengthen more than
predicted due to more favorable environmental factors. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous cycle in the
short term, but is still on the low end of the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 18.0N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 17.6N 56.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 17.3N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.2N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 17.6N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 18.3N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 19.5N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 22.9N 58.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 26.9N 57.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 292032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

...PHILIPPE SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO DRIFT AROUND EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 55.9W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 55.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Saturday night. A gradual
turn toward the west and northwest is forecast Sunday and Sunday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 292032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 55.9W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 55.9W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 55.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.6N 56.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.3N 56.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.2N 57.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.6N 57.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.3N 58.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 58.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.9N 58.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 26.9N 57.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 55.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 291448
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

There has been little change in Philippe's satellite appearance this
morning. The storm remains sheared with the low-level center
located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection.
The satellite intensity estimates continue to have a large spread,
ranging from 30 to 55 kt. ASCAT data should be available soon, and
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
Philippe this afternoon. Both of these datasets will provide a
better assessment of Philippe's intensity and structure.

Philippe has only moved roughly 40 miles over the past 24 hours, and
it has been generally drifting to the southwest during that time.
The slow motion over the past day or so is due to its interaction
with Tropical Storm Rina several hundred miles to its east. Since
these tropical cyclones are expected to continue to interact through
the weekend, Philippe is forecast to crawl southwestward during the
next 2 or 3 days. After that time, Rina is expected to separate
from Philippe as a mid-level ridge builds over the subtropical
central Atlantic. In response, Philippe should turn sharply
northward early next week. Although there remains a fair amount of
spread in the models, they are in considerably better agreement
today compared to the past couple of days. Overall, little change
was made to the previous track forecast, and it continues to lie
close to the various consensus models.

Although Philippe is still being affected by shear, the environment
over the next several days appears to become less hostile. Light
to moderate wind shear, increasing mid-level humidities around the
storm, and very warm SSTs should allow Philippe to gradually
strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward
again this cycle, but still lies on the lower end of the model
guidance. Additional upward revisions seem likely if the
guidance persists.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 18.3N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 18.1N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.4N 56.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 17.5N 56.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.4N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 26.1N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 291447
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

...PHILIPPE BARELY MOVING...
...EXPECTED TO DRIFT AROUND EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 55.3W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 55.3 West. Philippe is
moving very slowly toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday
night. A gradual turn toward the west and northwest is forecast
Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 291447
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.3W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.3W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 55.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 55.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 56.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 56.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.4N 57.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.1N 57.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 55.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 290838
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

A 0546 UTC GMI microwave pass showed that Philippe continues to
have a broad circulation, with the low-level center located
somewhere near the northwestern edge of a large area of deep
convection. There is a large range in the subjective Dvorak
estimates (30-55 kt), but the various objective numbers from
UW-CIMSS are in closer agreement (35-45 kt). Using a blend of
these values, as well as ASCAT data from last evening, Philippe's
intensity is held at 40 kt.

While there is a bit of uncertainty in the exact location of the
center, the storm does appear to be drifting toward the southwest
(235 degrees) at about 2 kt. Philippe's movement during the next
3-4 days is likely to be dictated by binary interaction with
Tropical Storm Rina to the east. The bulk of the track guidance
indicates that Philippe will dip farther toward the southwest during
the next 48 hours due to Rina's influence, but then turn toward the
northwest and north on days 3 through 5 as a mid-tropospheric high
builds over the central Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is
not much different from the previous prediction and is close to the
TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. The HAFS regional hurricane models
show little to no interaction between Philippe and Rina during the
next few days. However, with the two storms located only 500 n mi
apart from each other, some degree of interaction is likely, and
therefore the western solutions shown by those models (near or over
the northern Leeward Islands) appear to be outliers at this time.
That said, there continues to be larger-than-normal uncertainty in
Philippe's future track.

A combination of shear, dry air, and Philippe's proximity to Rina
are likely to cause little change in intensity for the next day or
so. However, the global models have trended toward Philippe not
only surviving the next few days, but also deepening in an
environment of increasing upper-level divergence (and still over
very warm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius). The NHC intensity
forecast has been nudged upward from 36 hours onward, although it
still sits well below most of the intensity models, including the
consensus aids, during the latter part of the forecast period.
Until it becomes more clear how Philippe will evolve over the next
couple of days, the official intensity forecast will remain on the
conservative side, but future adjustments to the forecast are
becoming more likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 18.5N 55.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.3N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 17.9N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 17.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 17.1N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 17.1N 56.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 17.6N 57.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 20.0N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 23.1N 58.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 290838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

...PHILIPPE LIKELY TO LOITER JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 55.2W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 55.2 West. Philippe is
moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday night. A gradual
turn toward the west and northwest is forecast Sunday and Sunday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so,
but some strengthening is possible over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 290837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 55.2W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 55.2W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 55.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.3N 55.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.9N 55.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.4N 56.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.1N 56.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.1N 56.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.6N 57.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 57.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 23.1N 58.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 55.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 290247
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2023

There has not been much change in Philippe's organization this
evening with deep convection pulsing around the eastern and
southern portions of the circulation. Satellite imagery and a very
recently arriving ASCAT pass indicate that the circulation is
quite elongated east to west. In fact, the ASCAT data suggests
Philippe likely lacks a well-defined center, but there are some
indications that a center may be trying to re-form farther east.
Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB were T2.0 (30 kt) and
T2.5 (35 kt), respectively at 00Z, but the recently arriving ASCAT
data revealed winds of around 35-36 kt. Given the typical
undersampling of that instrument, the initial wind speed is held
at 40 kt.

The scatterometer data suggests that Philippe is located a little
south of the previous estimates, but the storm appears to have moved
little since the previous advisory. The track forecast is still
quite challenging due to the current disorganized structure and the
close proximity of Tropical Storm Rina to Philippe's east. The
dynamical model guidance suggests that the cyclone will move slowly
southwestward as Rina moves to the northeast of Philippe during the
next two to three days. By early next week, the storm is forecast
to begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the
east-central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough over the
southwestern Atlantic. There is still significant spread in the
models on where Philippe makes the northward turn, but the guidance
is in slightly better agreement than 24 hours ago. The updated NHC
track is a little to the right of the previous forecast, but it
lies a little west of the latest consensus aids. There continues to
be larger-than-normal uncertainty in the latter portion of the
track forecast.

Westerly shear, dry air, and Philippe's close proximity to Rina
have continued to prevent any increase in organization today.
Those negative environmental factors are expected to linger during
the next day or so, and little overall change in strength is
forecast during that time. Although not explicitly shown in this
forecast or by most of the model guidance, it is possible that
Philippe's circulation becomes increasing elongated and the system
dissipates within the next couple of days. However, most of the
guidance shows Philippe surviving, and then finding a more favorable
environment in which to strengthen early next week. The NHC
intensity forecast has been nudged upward from 72-120 h, but it
remains below much the latest dynamical guidance and the consensus
aids. Until there is a bit more clarity it seems prudent to stay
on the more conservative side of the guidance. As with the track
forecast, there is still significant uncertainty in the long-range
intensity prediction for Philippe.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 18.3N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 18.2N 55.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 17.9N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 17.6N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 17.2N 56.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 17.0N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 17.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 18.8N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 21.7N 58.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 290246
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2023

...PHILIPPE MOVING VERY SLOWLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 55.0W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 55.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
westward or southwestward motion is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, but
Philippe could dissipate during that time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 290246
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.2N 55.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.9N 55.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.6N 55.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.2N 56.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.0N 56.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.8N 57.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 58.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 55.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 282047
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2023

Philippe remains poorly organized. Visible satellite images
indicate that the circulation is elongated from east to west and
appears to have multiple centers along a trough axis. The center
position listed in the advisory seems to be the main center and
there is some deep convection on its east and southeast sides.
Philippe barely meets the criteria needed for a tropical cyclone as
it has lost some organization today. The initial intensity is
lowered to 40 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite
intensity estimates.

The initial motion is highly uncertain since the storm is elongated
and confidence in the initial position remains low. The track
forecast is challenging, in part due to Philippe's close proximity
to Tropical Storm Rina. During the next few days, Philippe will
likely move slowly southwestward as it rotates around Rina
currently to its east. By late in the weekend, however, a sharp
northward turn is expected when a mid-level ridge becomes
established over the central subtropical Atlantic. There remains a
very large east-west spread in the models, and disagreements on
where Philippe makes its northward turn. The GFS is the right-most
model while the ECMWF remains the model farthest west. The NHC
track forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains
closest to the ECMWF model, which has been performing best so far
for this storm.

The observed weakening of the system today appears to be related to
its interaction with Rina and some environmental dry air. Since
these factors are expected to persist, some additional weakening is
forecast during the next day or so, and it is possible that Philippe
dissipates sometime during the next couple of days. However, if the
storm does survive, environmental conditions are expected to become
a little more favorable when Philippe and Rina become more
separated later in the forecast period. There is a huge spread in
the intensity models with HWRF, HMON, and the GFS showing Philippe
becoming a significant hurricane while the HAFS-A and HAFS-B models
show gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little
lower than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise
unchanged and closer to the low end of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 18.9N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 18.9N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 18.7N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 18.3N 56.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 17.9N 56.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 17.5N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 17.0N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 18.6N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 20.6N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 282047
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2023

...PHILIPPE'S FATE IS UNCERTAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 55.1W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 55.1 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
westward or southwestward motion is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, but
Philippe could dissipate during that time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 282047
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC THU SEP 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 55.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 55.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 55.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.9N 55.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.7N 55.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.3N 56.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 56.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.0N 57.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 58.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 20.6N 59.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 55.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 281436
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023

Philippe remains a very disorganized and elongated storm.
Geostationary and microwave satellite images show a low-level
circulation center well to the west of the mid-level center, where
most of the deep convection is currently concentrated. The
estimated center position shown in this advisory is roughly midway
between those features, however confidence is very low on the
storm's position. In fact, it is possible that Philippe no longer
has a well-defined center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt,
which is near the high end of the satellite intensity estimates.

The initial motion is highly uncertain since the storm is elongated
and confidence in the initial position is very low. The track
forecast is challenging, in part due to Philippe's close proximity
to newly formed Tropical Storm Rina. In the short term, a slow
southwestward motion seems likely as Philippe moves in weak steering
currents between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northeast and
Rina to its east-southeast. By late in the weekend, a mid-level
ridge is anticipated to build over the subtropical central Atlantic,
and that feature should cause Philippe to turn sharply northward
east of the northern Leeward Islands. The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted to the south for the first couple of days, but lies to
the east of the previous forecast at days 4 and 5. This prediction
is closest to the ECMWF model.

The environmental conditions for Philippe no longer seem unfavorable
given its expected to track to the east of the islands and not
within a region of strong shear. Therefore, the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted upward and generally shows little change
in strength during the next several days. This prediction still
lies near the low end of the model guidance, however, so future
advisories might show a higher intensity forecast if the guidance
persists.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 18.6N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 55.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 18.6N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 18.4N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 18.0N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 17.6N 57.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 17.3N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 17.7N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 20.0N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/A Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 281435
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023

...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND REMAIN EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 54.6W
ABOUT 560 MI...895 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 54.6 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
westward or southwestward motion is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/A Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 281433
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 54.6W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 54.6W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 54.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.7N 55.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N 55.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.4N 56.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 56.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.6N 57.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 58.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 54.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 280900
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023

Philippe remains a disorganized, sheared storm. Deep convection
has continued through the night to the southeast of the estimated
low-level center. Imagery from a 0525 UTC satellite microwave pass
showed a decent curved band associated with this convection in the
89 GHz channel. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the storm entirely.
The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, closest
to the TAFB Dvorak estimate.

There is still low confidence in Philippe's track forecast. As
stated in previous advisories, the future location of the storm is
closely linked to its structure and intensity. Should Philippe
remain a weaker, shallower cyclone, it is more likely to follow the
low-level westerly to southwesterly flow. This advisory favors that
scenario and shows the storm slowly drifting generally westward to
southwestward through day 4. By day 5, global models are suggesting
a trough to the north will lift Philippe or its remnants
northwestward. A complicating factor to this track forecast is the
proximity of an area of disturbed weather to the east of the
cyclone. Some models are still showing a binary interaction between
the two systems, which will largely depend on the strength of each.
Significant changes have been made to the most recent track
forecast, that are largely related to a slower westward progression
of Philippe. Still, this forecast is a blend of the previous
advisory and the latest model guidance. Further adjustments may be
required in subsequent advisories.

Philippe is in an environment with moderate southwesterly vertical
wind shear and lower, upshear, mid-level relative humidities. These
conditions are likely to inhibit intensification in the near-term
time frame. In about 48 h, global models predict the vertical wind
shear to increase and likely cause Philippe to gradually weaken
through the forecast period. However, there remains
higher-than-average uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The
latest NHC forecast still calls for Philippe to become a remnant low
by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 18.8N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 19.1N 55.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 19.3N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 19.2N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 18.9N 57.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 18.5N 57.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 18.0N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 18.2N 59.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 280900
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023

...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO DRIFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 54.6W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 54.6 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a slower westward to west-southwestward
motion by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
with slow weakening forecast this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe may produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and portions of Puerto
Rico this weekend and into early next week. Heavy rainfall from
Philippe may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 280900
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 54.6W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 54.6W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 54.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.1N 55.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.3N 56.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.2N 56.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.9N 57.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.5N 57.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.0N 58.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 18.2N 59.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 54.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 280235
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023

Deep convection has persisted around the eastern portion of
Philippe's circulation this evening, however there is not much
evidence of curved bands. The low-level center may have reformed or
become slightly better defined just to the west of the main
convective mass since the previous advisory. There has been no
recent microwave imagery to gain a better look at the cyclone's
structure and scatterometer appears likely to miss the center this
evening. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.0
(45 kt) and T2.5 (35 kt) from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The
initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, in deference
to the earlier scatterometer data and latest TAFB estimate.

The track forecast for Philippe remains quite complicated, and it is
very dependent on the future intensity and vertical depth of the
cyclone. The current disorganized structure of Philippe and its
present environment of moderate southwesterly shear is likely to
inhibit strengthening over the next couple of days. The main
question is whether Philippe weakens and becomes more vertically
shallow or if it maintains some vertical coherence during that time.
If it becomes vertically shallow, Philippe is likely to move
generally westward or west-southwestward within the low-level
steering flow. If it remains more vertically deep, the cyclone is
likely to move little as it remains to the southeast of a mid-level
ridge. Another complicating factor is a disturbance (AL91) to
Philippe's southeast. The latest GFS run moves that system close
enough to Philippe that binary interaction occurs between the two
systems. However this run appears to have initialized Philippe
stronger than it actually is, which may have led to the solution
where Philippe remains the dominate system. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF weakens Philippe and keeps more separation between the two
systems, taking a weaker Philippe westward or west-southwestward.
The NHC forecast currently favors the latter scenario, but there is
an unusually large amount of uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast. In general, the guidance is a bit slower this cycle and
the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track
forecast is not as slow as the consensus aids, but is a blend
of the previous official forecast and the latest consensus models.
It would not be surprising if additional adjustments to the track
forecast are required in subsequent advisories.

As mentioned above, moderate southwesterly shear and a slightly
drier airmass ahead of Philippe are likely to inhibit significant
convective organization of the cyclone at least during the next day
or two. That is likely to cause some gradual weakening, and the NHC
intensity forecast follows that thinking and calls for the system to
weaken during that time. However, there is still a lot of
uncertainty as to whether Philippe weakens and becomes a remnant low
later in the period, or moves little and remains a tropical cyclone.
The latest forecast maintains continuity from the previous few
advisories and calls for Philippe to become a remnant low, but this
is a low confidence forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 18.2N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.7N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.0N 56.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 19.0N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 19.0N 58.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 18.7N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 18.5N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 18.5N 62.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z 18.5N 63.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 280235
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023

...DISORGANIZED PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 54.5W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S and
British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress
of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 54.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the
next day or so, followed by a slower general westward motion by this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
with slow weakening forecast this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the east of the center. Saildrone (1069) located well
north-northeast of the center of Philippe has reported a peak
one-minute wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h)
within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe may produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and portions of Puerto
Rico Saturday through Monday. Heavy rainfall from Philippe may
produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 280234
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 54.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 54.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 54.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.7N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 56.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.0N 57.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N 58.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.7N 59.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.5N 60.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 18.5N 62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.5N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 54.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 272038
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023

Philippe's convection continues to oscillate this afternoon. Shortly
after the previous advisory, the convection waned and has become
less organized. An ASCAT-C pass showed that the center of the system
has become more ill-defined, with the low-level center difficult to
pinpoint this afternoon. Convection continues to redevelop back to
the east, with the expected mean center on the west side of the
convection. This was further supported by an AMSR microwave
overpass depicting and overall lack of organization. Subjective
Dvorak data-T numbers have come down with the current intensity
estimates remaining at 3.0. Given the earlier ASCAT-B pass and the
CI intensity estimates, the initial intensity will is held at 45
kt, but this could be generous.

This is a fairly complicated intensity and track forecast. Philippe
is in a sheared environment, and currently lacks organization. The
system is forecast to move into a slightly drier mid-level airmass
in a few days, which may also inhibit the overall convective
pattern. Some slight fluctuations in intensity may occur due to the
pulsing convective nature of the system during the next few days,
with an overall slow weakening trend later this weekend. There
remains uncertainty in the intensity forecast and it is possible
Philippe maintains its tropical cyclone status as it reaches the
northern Leeward Islands, or the system could weaken and open into
a trough.

The estimated motion is west-northwestward at 4 kt. Philippe is
currently being steered by the flow around a weak mid-level ridge
and is expected to move west-northwestward over the next couple of
days. In the latter part of the forecast period, a weakening and
shallow system should turn toward the west-southwest. There is
unusually large spread in the model guidance this cycle with the GFS
and ECMWF over 1100 miles apart on Day 5. The GFS is stronger and on
the right side, of the guidance envelope which has pulled the
consensus aids right as well. The ECMWF is weaker and on the left
side of the guidance. The track forecast is highly dependent on the
intensity forecast, however. The official track forecast is similar
to the previous forecast, just slower given the initial slower
motion, which is closest to the ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 17.7N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 18.1N 55.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 18.6N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 18.9N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 18.9N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 18.8N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 18.7N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 18.4N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 18.2N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 272037
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023

...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWER...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 54.0W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S and
British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress
of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 54.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two,
with slow weakening forecast this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain
across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
northern and eastern Puerto Rico Saturday through Monday. Elsewhere
across Puerto Rico, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected. Heavy
rainfall from Philippe may produce isolated urban and small stream
flooding impacts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 272036
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 54.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 54.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 53.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.1N 55.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N 56.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.9N 57.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.9N 58.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.8N 60.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N 61.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.4N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 54.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 271453
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2023

Visible, infrared and microwave imagery depicts that Philippe is a
slightly better organized system this morning. A burst of deep
convection continues near and east of the center. In addition,
earlier AMSR and SSMI/S microwave passes show that a convective
band has been developing on the eastern side of the circulation.
However, visible satellite images within the past hour depict that
the low-level center is becoming partially exposed on the western
edge of the convection. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have increased this cycle, with a TAFB Dvorak
data-T number of 3.0, 45 kt. Given the developing banding feature
and satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is raised
to 45 kt for this advisory. This is also in agreement with a
recent ASCAT-B pass.

Philippe is expected to remain in a sheared environment
over the next few days. However, the GFS SHIPS vertical wind shear
forecast shows a slight decrease, which may allow to the storm to
withhold convection near the low-level center a little longer than
what was previously anticipated. Philippe is forecast to move into a
slightly drier mid-level airmass in a few days, which may also
inhibit the overall convective pattern. Some slight fluctuations in
intensity may occur due to the pulsing convective nature of the
system during the next few days, with an overall slow weakening
trend later this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast was raised
slightly given the initial higher intensity. There remains
uncertainty in the intensity forecast and it is possible Philippe
maintains its tropical cyclone status as it reaches the northern
Leeward Islands.

The storm has not gained much latitude this morning and continues to
move mainly westward at around 280/8 kt. Philippe is currently
being steered by the flow around a weak mid-level ridge and is
expected to move west-northwestward over the next couple of days.
In the latter part of the forecast period, the weakening and shallow
system should turn toward the west-southwest. The track forecast is
highly dependent on the intensity forecast, however. The official
track forecast has again been shifted southward in 3-5 days, but
not as far south as the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 17.5N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 18.0N 54.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 18.6N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.0N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 19.0N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 18.9N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 18.7N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 18.4N 64.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 18.1N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 271452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2023

...PHILIPPE SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 53.7W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S and
British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress
of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 53.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast the next day or
two, with slow weakening forecast this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain
across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and eastern
Puerto Rico Friday through Monday. Across western Puerto Rico, 1 to
2 inches of rain is expected. Heavy rainfall from Philippe may
produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 271451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC WED SEP 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 53.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 53.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 53.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N 54.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.6N 56.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 57.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.9N 60.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.7N 62.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.4N 64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 18.1N 66.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 53.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 270845
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2023

Philippe continues to be a disorganized tropical cyclone.
Satellite imagery shows a cloud pattern consisting of bursting deep
convection in an amorphous-looking blob just east of the estimated
center with a few areas of convection farther to the east and
southeast. Although there was some evidence earlier of a
convective band over the eastern periphery of the circulation, that
feature has since broken up into less-organized patches of showers
and thunderstorms. The current intensity estimate is held at 40 kt
based on earlier scatterometer measurements. However, subjective
and objective Dvorak intensity estimates suggest a weaker storm.

Philippe is expected to remain in a sheared environment, and
ingesting drier low- to mid-level air, over the next few days.
Wind fields from both the ECMWF and GFS models show Philippe's
circulation weakening below tropical storm strength around 48 hours
and beyond. Simulated satellite imagery from those models also
depict the system as lacking sufficient organized deep convection to
be considered a tropical cyclone while it approaches the northern
Leeward Islands. The official intensity forecast, like the previous
one, shows Philippe degenerating into a remnant low pressure area
around 72 hours.

The cyclone continues on a mainly westward heading at around 280/10
kt. Philippe is currently being steered by the flow to the south
of a weak mid-level anticyclone, and is expected to move
west-northwestward on the southwest side of this high during the
next couple of days. In the latter part of the forecast period,
the weakening and increasingly shallow system should turn toward
the west-southwest following the low-level trade winds. The
official track forecast has again been shifted a little southward in
3-5 days, following the TVCN consensus solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 18.4N 54.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 19.1N 55.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 19.6N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 19.6N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 19.5N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 19.4N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 19.0N 64.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 19.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 270842
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2023

...PHILIPPE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 52.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 52.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 270841
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC WED SEP 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 52.7W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 52.7W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 52.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.4N 54.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 55.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.6N 57.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N 58.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.5N 60.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.4N 62.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 19.0N 64.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 19.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 52.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 270240
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023

After the previous advisory, there was a convective burst with cloud
tops as cold as -80C that formed near the circulation center. More
recently, this burst has been waning in intensity, and it would not
be surprising to see the vortex become exposed again shortly as
20-30 kt southwesterly vertical wind shear continues. While
subjective and objective intensity estimates continue to suggest a
weaker storm, a helpful 0015 UTC ASCAT-B pass still showed a large
region of 35-40 kt winds in the northeastern side of the
circulation, in fact requiring an expansion of the tropical storm
force winds in that quadrant. Based primarily on the scatterometer
data, Philippe's intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.

The intensity forecast appears rather straightforward. The current
vertical wind shear over Philippe is expected to continue through
most of the forecast period, helping to import drier air into the
circulation, that should prevent additional convective bursts from
organizing the system. By 72 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF are in
agreement that Philippe should no longer have organized deep
convection, which is when the forecast shows the system becoming a
post-tropical remnant low. As mentioned previously, this could
happen sooner than forecasted given the unfavorable environment.

After moving south of due west earlier today, Philippe appears to
have resumed a north of due west heading, estimated at 280/10 kt.
The track guidance is in good agreement on this motion continuing
with a bend westward in 36-48 hours as the cyclone becomes
primarily steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track
forecast remains along or just south of the model guidance consensus
aids, and is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 17.4N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 17.9N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 18.8N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 19.4N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 19.8N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 20.0N 59.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 20.0N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 20.2N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 270236
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023

...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 52.0W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 52.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds remain
near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is
forecast over the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 270236
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 52.0W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 52.0W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 51.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.9N 53.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 55.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 56.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 59.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 20.2N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 52.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 262037
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023

Philippe remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical
storm. The low-level center continues to pull away from the
associated deep convection and is now located about 100 n
mi west of a small area of thunderstorms. In fact, the system
barely meets the convective criteria of a tropical cyclone.
Despite the ragged satellite appearance, the initial intensity is
held at 40 kt based on partial ASCAT data that showed a patch of
tropical-storm-force winds well east of the center earlier today.

The models are in agreement that strong shear will continue to
affect Philippe during the next several days, which in combination
with dry air entrainment should cause gradual weakening despite
its passage over warm SSTs. Simulated satellite images from the
GFS and ECMWF models show Philippe losing all of its deep
convection in a few days, and the NHC forecast continues to show
Philippe becoming a remnant low by day 4. However, it would not be
surprising if the system becomes a remnant low or opens into a
trough sooner than that.

Philippe has not gained any latitude since this time yesterday and
all of the models have had a notable north bias during that time
period. Based on recent trends and since Philippe is expected to
stay a decoupled and weak system moving in the low-level flow,
another shift to the left has been made in this forecast. This
prediction lies near the southern side of the model guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 17.1N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.3N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.4N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 56.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 19.7N 57.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 20.0N 59.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 20.1N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 20.2N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 20.3N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 262035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023

...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 51.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 51.3 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 262033
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC TUE SEP 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 51.3W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 51.3W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 50.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.3N 52.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.4N 54.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 56.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.7N 57.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 59.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.1N 61.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.2N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 20.3N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 51.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 261432
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2023

Philippe continues to struggle due to strong west-southwesterly
shear associated with a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest.
The low-level center is completely exposed and deep convection
remains well removed to the east of the center. The latest
satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 42 kt, and based on
that data, the initial wind speed is nudged downward to 40 kt.

The strong shear is not expected to let up over the next several
days, which should keep the storm asymmetric and weak. A
combination of the shear and dry air entrainment should lead to a
gradual decay, and simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF
models suggest that Philippe will likely degenerate into a remnant
low in 3 or 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope and now shows the system becoming a
remnant low by day 4.

Philippe continues to move westward, and it has not gained much
latitude over the past 24 hours due to its sheared structure.
Based on the previous track, the expected asymmetric structure, and
the new model guidance, the NHC track forecast is again shifted to
the left as Philippe is expected to continue to move in the low- to
mid-level flow. This forecast lies on the southern side of the
guidance envelope, in best agreement with the ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.3N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 17.9N 51.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.9N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 19.8N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 20.7N 56.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 21.2N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 21.2N 59.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 21.2N 62.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 261432
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2023

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 50.3W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 50.3 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 261431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 50.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 50.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.9N 51.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.9N 53.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.8N 55.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.7N 56.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N 58.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.2N 59.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.2N 62.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 50.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 260844
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2023

West-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with an
upper-level low near 26N 50W, continues to affect Philippe. The
low-level center of the tropical cyclone is located near the
western edge of an area of rather disorganized deep convection.
Some sporadic convection has been redeveloping nearer to the center
of the system, but overall Philippe's cloud pattern remains
disheveled in appearance and lacks banding features. The current
intensity estimate is kept at 45 kt in deference to the earlier
scatterometer data. However, subjective and objective Dvorak
intensity estimates are somewhat lower.

The global models indicate that the vertical shear over Philippe
is not likely to abate significantly during the forecast period,
with upper-tropospheric westerlies dominating the flow to the north
and northeast of the Greater Antilles through 120 hours. Also, the
model guidance indicates that Philippe will be encountering a
somewhat drier low- to mid-level air mass during the next several
days. These environmental factors should lead to gradual weakening,
and thus Philippe is forecast to become a depression and then a
remnant low in 3 and 5 days, respectively. This is in good
agreement with the corrected consensus intensity model, HCCA,
guidance.

Over the past day or so, the storm has been moving westward to
west-northwestward and the current motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A
weak mid-level ridge is expected to be maintained to the north
of Philippe for the next few days, which is likely to keep steering
the cyclone on a generally west-northwestward track. Later in the
forecast period, Philippe should be a weaker, shallower system and
move on a mainly westward heading, following the low-level easterly
flow. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC
track, only a little to the left and slightly faster in 3-5 days.
This lies between the model consensus and the latest ECMWF
prediction, which is even faster and a little farther south.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 17.7N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 18.2N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 19.1N 52.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 20.1N 53.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.0N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 21.6N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 21.9N 58.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 21.8N 60.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 21.8N 63.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 260841
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2023

...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 49.0W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 49.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 260840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 49.0W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 49.0W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.2N 50.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.1N 52.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 53.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 55.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.6N 56.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.9N 58.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.8N 60.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 21.8N 63.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 260248
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023

There have not been many changes to the appearance of Philippe
tonight. The low-level circulation continues to be primarily exposed
to the west of a rather misshapen area of deep convection. While
there are a few convective cells that have attempted to redevelop
closer to the circulation center, the storm remains disrupted by
20-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. While subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates continue to gradually
decrease, earlier GOES-16 1-minute meso sector low-level derived
motion winds north of Philippe were in the 50-60 kt range, which
typically would support somewhat higher winds. In addition, a
recently arriving ASCAT-C pass caught the eastern side of the
circulation, revealing peak winds in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore,
the initial intensity is adjusted to 45 kt for this advisory.

Despite the slightly higher initial intensity, Philippe's future
prospects appear increasingly dim (as a tropical cyclone), as the
current shear affecting the system is not expected to abate. In
fact, this shear may increase further after 48 hours. Because the
storm will still continue to traverse warm 29-30C sea-surface
temperatures, the storm is likely to continue generating convective
bursts east of the center for the majority of the forecast period.
However, it appears increasingly likely the shear will not be able
to be overcome, and the updated NHC intensity forecast now shows the
storm on a slow decline, ending with it becoming a remnant low
sometime in the day 4-5 time frame. This forecast is in good
agreement with the consensus aids, with remnant low status
occuring roughly when the ECMWF shows the system stopping to
produce organized convection.

Philippe appears to have resumed a more west-northwestward motion at
285/10 kt. Compared to 24 hours ago, the guidance has started to
come into better agreement that the storm should maintain a general
west-northwestward motion for the next 48-72 hours, not really
feeling the mid-level weakness developing to its north as it
gradually becomes more vertically shallow. The biggest change
compared to the prior advisory is showing a turn more westward by
the end of the forecast as the system becomes primarily steered by
the more east-to-west oriented low-level ridging. This leftward
adjustment to the track forecast is mainly in response to similar
leftward shifts in both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance that
have shifted to weaker solutions steered by the low-level flow. The
NHC track lies roughly in between the reliable consensus aids (TVCN,
HCCA) and the ECMWF and its ensemble mean, which remain on the south
and west side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.6N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.0N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 18.8N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 19.8N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 20.8N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 21.5N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 22.0N 57.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 22.0N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 260243
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST SHEAR BUT SATELLITE
WIND DATA SHOWS HIGHER WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 47.8W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 47.8 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds are near
50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast
over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 260241
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC TUE SEP 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 47.8W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 47.8W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 47.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 49.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.8N 51.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.8N 53.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 54.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 57.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 59.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 61.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 47.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 252038
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023

Visible satellite images continue to show Philippe with a fully
exposed center far removed to the west of all of the deep
convection. The continued disorganized appearance suggests at least
some weakening has occurred, and satellite intensity estimates
concur. Thus, the wind speed has been lowered to 40 kt.

Philippe continues to be impacted by 20-25 kt of deep-layer
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. This wind shear is forecast
by both GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models to persist or even
increase further during the next few days. This unfavorable shear
combined with dry air entrainment will hinder strengthening through
the forecast period. A few models suggest some slight increase in
intensity in the 48- to 72-hour time frame due to warmer sea-surface
temperatures, but other environmental factors will remain negative.
The new forecast indicates no change in strength over the next
several days, with some weakening toward the end of the forecast
period.

The exposed low-level center of Philippe has been moving west today
with a slight increase in forward motion this afternoon. The system
should veer toward the west-northwest tonight then turn northwest by
mid-week as Philippe moves toward a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. By late week, this weakness becomes less pronounced and the
overall steering flow diminishes. The forecast track at the end of
the period therefore slows and curves back toward the
west-northwest. There remains considerable spread in the track
models this afternoon, with the GFS and its ensemble members
representing far rightward outliers. With the ongoing motion to the
west and a leftward shift of the overall guidance output, the NHC
forecast track has been adjusted slightly west, especially beyond 72
hours due to the aforementioned steering flow changes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.3N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.7N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 18.4N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.3N 52.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.4N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 21.6N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 22.2N 56.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.9N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 23.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 252035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023

...PHILIPPE WEAKENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 46.7W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 46.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected by tonight, and a northwestward motion
is forecast to occur in a couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 252034
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 46.7W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 46.7W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 46.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 48.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.4N 50.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.3N 52.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.4N 54.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.6N 55.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.2N 56.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.9N 57.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.4N 59.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 46.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KONARIK/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 251442
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2023

Visible satellite images indicate that Philippe has become less
organized this morning. The low-level center has become fully
exposed with all of the deep convection now displaced well to the
east of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 45 kt, in
agreement with most of the satellite intensity estimates.

Philippe is currently experiencing about 20-25 kt of
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Both the GFS- and
ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the vertical wind shear increasing
even more during the next few days. These hostile winds and dry air
entrainment should cause Philippe to continue to struggle throughout
the forecast period. There is some spread in the guidance with a
couple of models showing slight strengthening and several of the
models showing slight weakening. Based on the guidance and expected
continued shear, the new forecast is lower than the previous one and
shows no change in strength during the next several days.

Geostationary and microwave satellite images indicate that Philippe
has jogged to the left this morning. Smoothing through this wobble
yields an initial motion of 280/11 kt. A turn back to the
west-northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northwestward
motion in a couple of days as Philippe moves toward a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. There is a vast amount of spread in the
track models this morning with the GFS and its ensemble mean on the
far right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the left
side. An examination of the GFS model fields suggests that the
model is showing a vortex that is likely too vertically aligned, and
not representative of the environmental conditions. Therefore,
that model is considered an outlier for the time being. The new
NHC track forecast is adjusted to the left toward the various
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.3N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.6N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.1N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 18.9N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 19.9N 52.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 21.1N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 22.1N 55.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 23.7N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 24.6N 57.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 251441
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2023

...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 45.5W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 45.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected by tonight, and a northwestward motion
is forecast to occur in a couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 251441
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 45.5W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 45.5W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 44.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.6N 47.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.1N 49.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.9N 51.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.9N 52.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.1N 54.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.1N 55.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.7N 56.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.6N 57.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 45.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KONARIK

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 250838
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2023

The satellite appearance of Philippe has remained steady overnight.
Burst of deep convection, with cold cloud tops to -80 C, continue
from time to time within the overall convective plume. An AMSR
microwave pass depicts that the convection remains displaced to the
east of the low-level center, with the system still lacking
organization. Philippe is struggling to become better organized due
to the strong mid-level shear impacting the system. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at T3.0/45-kt
this cycle, and the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

Philippe will continue to be in an environment with moderate to
strong mid-level shear, which will limit the overall organization of
the system. The storm is traversing fairly warm sea surface
temperatures around 29C and favorable mid-level RH values the next
few days. Given these mixed parameters and lack of organization, the
NHC forecast calls for Philippe to remain fairly steady with the
potential for some slow strengthening by the end of the period.
However, there remains uncertainty in the intensity forecast given
the guidance envelope. The ECMWF suggest the system remains steady
or may even weaken, while the GFS depicts strengthening with the
system moving far enough north into a lower shear environment. The
intensity forecast is similar to the previous, and is closest to the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The system is moving west-northwest at an estimated motion of 285/9
kt. Philippe should continue west-northwestward over the next day or
two, steered along the southern side of a mid-level ridge. In about
2 days, all models depict a weakness developing in the ridge, but
the track guidance diverges quite drastically, and it is directly
related to the intensity of the system. A deeper, stronger system,
like the GFS depicts, will feel the weakness in the ridge and curve
the system faster on a more northwestward track. However, a weaker,
shallow cyclone, like the ECMWF depicts, will cause the system to
continue on a west-northwestward or even westward track. The NHC
track forecast continues to be in the middle of the guidance, and
lies close to both the simple and corrected consensus aids. This
remains a low confidence track and intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.4N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 17.8N 45.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.3N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.0N 49.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 21.2N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 22.4N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 24.0N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 25.5N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2023

...PHILIPPE REMAINS STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 43.9W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1265 MI...2030 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 43.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected for the next day or two, with a gradual turn to
the northwest by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 250838
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 43.9W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 43.9W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.8N 45.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.3N 47.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 49.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 51.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.2N 53.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 250243
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2023

Another prominent convective burst has formed over Philippe (the
storm) since the prior advisory. However, indications from the last
received microwave imagery (a 2033 UTC F-16 SSMIS pass) suggest that
the large cirrus plume produced is mainly the product of a cluster
of cells in the down-shear quadrants of the storm, with little
indication of improved organization with the tropical cyclone. There
is also evidence of mid-level shear undercutting the outflow layer
to the west of the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at T3.0/45-kt, and Philippe's
initial intensity this advisory is held at 45 kt, which is also
close to a mean D-MINT value associated with the above mentioned
microwave pass.

The intensity forecast for the next 2-3 days is tricky, as vertical
wind shear (especially mid-level shear under the outflow layer)
already appears to be keeping Philippe in check, and preventing the
deep convection from wrapping around the center. Neither the GFS or
ECMWF suggest this shear will abate much for at least the next 2-3
days. In fact the primary reason why the forecast was held steady
over this time span is that the cyclone will also continue
traversing anomalously warm 29C sea-surface temperatures, while
mid-level moisture stays about the same or increases some during
this time span. However, it would not be surprising to see some
weakening in the short-term either, as suggested by the
regional-hurricane models, particularly HMON and COAMPS-TC
forecasts. After 72 hours, assuming the storm begins to turn
poleward, there is some potential the storm start moving north of
this shear zone, where some gradual intensification could begin. The
intensity forecast is largely similar to the prior advisory, and is
closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

Philippe continues to move west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. For the
next day or so, the guidance is in fairly good agreement on this
motion continuing as an extensive mid-level ridge centered north of
the cyclone remains in place. Beyond that time span, however, is
where the guidance diverges quite dramatically. While most of the
guidance agrees a large weakness will appear in the mid-level
ridging to the north of Philippe, whether or not the system is able
to turn northward into this weakness is largely a byproduct of how
vertically deep the cyclone is able to remain. Assuming the storm
remains at least somewhat vertically coherent, the track forecast
does show a turn northwest and then north-northwest by the end of
the 5-day forecast. However, the spread in the guidance at this time
period remains notable, with stronger solutions turning more north
or even northeast, while weaker (and solutions that dissipate
Philippe) maintaining a west-northwest heading. The NHC track
forecast continues to split the difference between these extremes,
and lies close to both the simple and corrected consensus aids. As
discussed previously, this remains a low confidence track and
intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.6N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.1N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 18.5N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 19.3N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 20.4N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 21.6N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 23.4N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 25.5N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250235
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2023

...PHILIPPE HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 43.3W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 43.3 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general
motion is expected for the next day or two, with a gradual turn to
the northwest anticipated by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast during the
next 2 to 3 days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 250234
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 43.3W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 45SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 43.3W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.6N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.1N 47.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 49.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.3N 51.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.4N 52.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.6N 54.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.4N 55.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 25.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 43.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 242040
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2023

Microwave and satellite data indicate that the center of Philippe
has re-formed to the northeast of earlier estimates. Overall, the
storm is reasonably well organized, with convection near the center
and a large central dense overcast. Intensity estimates are about
the same as the last cycle, so the initial wind speed remains 45 kt.

There aren't many changes to the intensity prediction reasoning in
this advisory. Increasing shear is forecast to otherwise counteract
a conducive environment, leading to little net change with Philippe
during the next couple of days. Afterwards, models are in quite
poor agreement on if the shear continues to rise to strong levels,
which causes dissipation like the ECMWF, or if it becomes more
manageable to allow for further intensification, similar to the
GFS's hurricane forecast at day 5. There are no obvious clues to
the correct solution, and this is probably a very difficult forecast
due to the feedback of Philippe's track affecting intensity, in
addition to the inherent challenges of moderate shear cases. Thus,
little change was made to the intensity forecast, which lies near
the overall model and corrected-consensus aids.

The storm appears to be moving west-northwestward or 290/10 kt. The
subtropical ridge to the north of Philippe is forecast to gradually
weaken and slide eastward in a day or two, allowing the tropical
storm to move more west-northwestward and northwestward by the
middle of the week. Uncertainty is large after that point, with the
track very likely also dependent on the intensity and vortex depth,
and the GFS and ECMWF models are on the opposite sides of the
guidance envelope. The long-range guidance has shifted a bit
westward on this cycle, and the new forecast follows that trend.
However, this forecast should be considered low-confidence in both
track and intensity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 16.8N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.3N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.8N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 18.2N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 18.8N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 19.7N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 21.0N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 23.0N 55.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 25.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 242038
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2023

...PHILIPPE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 42.5W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1975 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 42.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected for the next couple of days, with a turn
to the northwest anticipated by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast during the
next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 242037
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 42.5W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 42.5W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 42.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.3N 44.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.8N 46.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 48.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.8N 50.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.7N 52.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 25.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 42.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 241442
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023

Philippe is a challenging tropical cyclone to analyze this morning.
On one hand, the overall satellite presentation has improved since
yesterday, and a 0907Z SSMIS microwave pass shows a possible
mid-level eye. Yet the 1-min GOES16 imagery reveals a weak
low-level swirl southwest of the main convective blob, and ASCAT-B
near 12Z showed a disorganized inner core with less wind than one
might expect (albeit very contaminated with rain). Overall,
intensity estimates have risen since the last advisory, so the
initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, similar to the TAFB/SAB values,
but this should be considered fairly uncertain.

Little change in intensity is forecast with the storm during the
next couple of days as increasing shear is forecast to otherwise
counteract a conducive environment. There are a variety of
solutions after that point, with some models showing a stronger
Philippe after finding a lower-shear environment, while others
suggesting that the storm succumbs to the shear from an
upper-level trough. There are no easy answers here with moderate
shear cases in high SST/moisture conditions well known to have
higher errors due to an inherent lack of predictability. The new
forecast splits the difference in the model guidance, lying near
the consensus and the previous forecast, and we will just have to
see if a trend emerges for the eventual intensity of Philippe.

The long-term motion of the storm is westward or 280/10 kt. The
subtropical ridge to the north of Philippe is forecast to gradually
weaken and slide eastward in a day or two, allowing the tropical
storm to move more west-northwestward and northwestward by the
middle of the week. Uncertainty grows after that point, with the
track seemingly dependent on the intensity. A stronger system
would probably turn northward, like the GFS/HWRF/HMON models, while
a weaker one, like the UKMET/ECMWF solutions, would take a left
turn under the low-level subtropical ridge. For now, little change
was made to the long-range forecast given all of the uncertainty.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.2N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.5N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.9N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.4N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.0N 49.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 18.9N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 22.5N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 24.0N 55.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023

...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO BATTLE WIND SHEAR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 41.7W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 41.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a motion towards
the west or west-northwest is forecast during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little net change in strength is forecast during
the next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 241439
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 41.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 41.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 41.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 43.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.9N 45.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.4N 47.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 49.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.9N 51.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 24.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 41.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 240837
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023

Philippe is still trying to become better organized this morning.
There continues to be burst within the convection with very cold
cloud tops to -80 degrees Celsius. However, the convection remains
displaced to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. An
ASCAT pass that arrived just after the previous advisory revealed
winds on the northeast side of the system were near 40 kt.
Subjective satellite Dvorak estimates for this cycle from TAFB and
SAB were T3.0/T2.5, respectively. Using a blend of these estimates
and the scatterometer satellite-derived winds, the intensity for
this advisory is raised to 40 kt.

The system is moving westward at an estimated motion of 280/8 kt.
Philippe should continue westward fro the next couple of days,
steered along the southern side of a mid-level ridge. In about 2 to
3 days, a weakness in the ridge will develop and the tropical storm
should gradually turn west-northwest and then northwest. Models
have continued to slow the forward motion of Philippe towards the
end of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast was adjusted
accordingly. The NHC track forecast lies near the corrected
consensus aids throughout the period, with a slight nudge to the
left of the previous track.

Models depict that Philippe will take some time to get organized due
to mid-level vertical wind shear and some drier mid-level RH values.
This will lead to only slow strengthening the next few days. In
about 3 days, as Philippe approaches a mid-upper level trough,
deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to increase but
upper-level divergence should increase over the system as well. The
guidance continues to favor some additional strengthen through the
end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.6N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.9N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.3N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.3N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 18.1N 50.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 19.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 22.4N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 24.2N 55.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240837
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 41.4W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 41.4 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward
motion is expected over the next few days, with a turn towards
the west-northwest and northwest around the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 41.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 41.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 40.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 43.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.3N 45.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 47.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.3N 49.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 50.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.2N 52.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 54.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.2N 55.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 41.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 240247
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

Philippe is still a disorganized tropical storm. Geostationary
satellite imagery shows that deep convection is displaced to the
northeast of the low-level center. Recent satellite-derived wind
data revealed that the surface circulation is still elongated and
winds in the southwest quadrant are quite weak. The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, based on the ASCAT
observations.

The tropical storm is moving westward at an estimate 12 kt. This
general motion should continue for the next two days, as Philippe
moves along the south side of a mid-level ridge. By 60 h, the storm
should gradually turn to the west-northwest and northwest as it
reaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory through day 3, and has shifted to
the west and slightly slower at days 4 and 5.

Model guidance suggests Philippe should gradually organize and thus
slowly strengthen in the next few days. This is possibly due to
some mid-level vertical wind shear and upstream dry air. Beyond day
3, Philippe is expected to approach a mid- to upper-level trough,
that should increase deep-layer vertical wind shear, but could also
increase upper-level difluence. The intensity guidance generally
favors some slight intensification during this period. The latest
NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly
above the consensus aid, IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 15.4N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.5N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.3N 47.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 16.7N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 17.4N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 18.3N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 21.2N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 23.5N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240247
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

...PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 40.9W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 40.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued westward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected into early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240246
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 40.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 42.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 47.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.7N 49.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.4N 50.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 52.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.2N 53.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 40.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232059
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 2...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 39.7W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 39.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued westward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected into early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Very gradual strengthening is expected during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 232040
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

Overall, the structure of the cyclone hasn't changed significantly
since this morning. Its low-level center is still displaced west of
most of the associated deep convection. That said, satellite
intensity estimates are generally a little higher than they were
about 6 hours ago, ranging from about 30 to 35 kt. The intensity is
set at 35 kt, in best agreement with the latest subjective TAFB
Dvorak estimate and the objective UW-CIMSS DMINT and SATCON, making
the system Tropical Storm Philippe.

Philippe is expected to maintain its general structure for the next
couple of days, which should prevent it from substantially
strengthening. While the intensity guidance is generally slightly
higher than 6 h ago, the dynamical models remain in generally good
agreement on the intensity forecast for the next few days. Beyond 72
h, Philippe will approach a mid- to upper-level trough, which could
result in an increase of both upper-level difluence and deep-layer
shear. Slight additional intensification is possible at that point,
but no periods of significant strengthening are expected during the
next 5 days. The official intensity forecast remains near the IVCN
and HCCA intensity consensus aids.

The tropical storm continues to move westward, near 12 kt. This
should generally continue for the next couple of days until Philippe
approaches the aforementioned trough. At that point, as long as the
tropical storm has strengthened slightly as expected, it should
begin to turn northwestward, and then northward, influenced by the
deeper-layer steering flow imparted by the trough. The official
track forecast has been shifted slightly northeastward and slower
compared to the previous one, and is close to the latest HCCA
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.6N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.7N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.9N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 16.3N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.7N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.2N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 18.0N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 21.0N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 24.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232040
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE..


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 39.7W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 39.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued westward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected into early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Very gradual strengthening is expected during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 232039
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 39.7W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 39.7W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 39.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 41.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 43.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.3N 46.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 48.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 51.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 24.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 39.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 231448
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

Visible imagery since sunrise revealed that a small well-defined
center has formed on the western edge of an area of disturbed
weather located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Deep convection associated with the system is also
sufficiently organized to classify it as a tropical cyclone.
Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression
Seventeen.

ASCAT data valid around 1200 UTC indicated that maximum winds
associated with the depression are near 30 kt, and that is the basis
for the initial intensity. Since the cyclone's deep convection and
formative mid-level circulation are displaced well east of its
surface center, no significant change in strength is anticipated in
the short term. Deep-layer shear appears to be very weak, but model
soundings suggest some mid-layer shear may be responsible for the
current structure. This shear could lessen by early next week,
allowing for slow intensification to begin in an environment that
should otherwise support strengthening. The NHC forecast is very
near the intensity model consensus, with the statistical-dynamical
models generally showing a faster rate of strengthening than the
dynamical ones.

The depression is moving westward, with an initial forward speed
near 13 kt. The depression should continue westward for the next
several days, slowing down slightly as the subtropical ridge to its
north weakens and moves eastward. After about 3 days, a mid- to
upper-level trough over the central Atlantic should begin to turn
the cyclone northwestward, and then northward by day 5, as long as
Seventeen intensifies as forecasted. The NHC track forecast is
heavily based on HCCA through the full forecast period. Confidence
in the track forecast is somewhat lower than normal based on the
model spread and uncertainty as to when the system will be
vertically deep enough to begin gaining more latitude, but nearly
all available ensemble guidance shows the same general evolution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.6N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.7N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.2N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 16.6N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 17.1N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 19.5N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 23.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231447
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 38.8W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 38.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24
km/h) and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward
speed is expected during the next few days.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Very gradual
strengthening is expected through early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 231447
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 38.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 38.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 38.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.7N 41.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 43.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.2N 48.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.6N 50.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 51.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 23.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 38.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>