Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NIGEL-23
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220834
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023

Nigel has completed its transition to an extra-tropical cyclone this
morning. Convection from earlier has waned, and is well displaced
from the exposed low-level center. Based on a blend of an earlier
partial ASCAT pass and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this
advisory.

The system is encountering very strong vertical wind shear and ocean
temperatures below 20 degrees Celsius. The system is forecast to
continue to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. However,
the system will remain a strong extra-tropical cyclone with an
expanding wind field. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and lies near the model consensus.

Nigel continues to race northeastward at 32 kt. A northeastward
motion is forecast to continue the next day or so, as it remains in
the flow along the southern edge of a deep mid-latitude trough.
Afterwards, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of a large
extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic, with the two
extratropical systems merging in about 48 h. The model guidance
remains in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies in the
center of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 46.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/1800Z 48.8N 27.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/1800Z 56.4N 23.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220834
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023

...NIGEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.3N 32.6W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel
was located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 32.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 37 mph (59
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
day or so. A slower northward or north-northwestward motion is
expected this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220833
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 32.6W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 190SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 480SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 32.6W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.4N 34.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 48.8N 27.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 200SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 260SE 200SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 56.4N 23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 32.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220241
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023

Nigel has not quite completed its transition to a post-tropical
cyclone. A burst of deep convection formed near the center a few
hours ago, and it is therefore still considered a tropical system.
Based on a partial ASCAT pass and the latest satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this
advisory.

Cold ocean waters and significant vertical wind shear should cause
Nigel to weaken further. The hurricane should become a powerful
extratropical cyclone within about 12 hours. As noted previously,
Nigel continues to grow in size and an expansion of the 34-kt wind
field is expected during the next couple of days.

The hurricane is moving east-northeastward at 32 kt. An east-
northeastward to northeastward motion along the southeastern side of
a deep-layer mid-latitude trough is expected during the next day or
so. Beyond a day, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of a
large extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. The two
features should merge in about 60 h and the official forecast now
shows dissipation at the time. The model guidance remains tightly
clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the center of the
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 45.1N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 47.5N 30.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 23/0000Z 51.3N 25.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/1200Z 55.0N 23.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0000Z 56.9N 25.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220240
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023

...NIGEL SOON TO BE EXTRATROPICAL...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.1N 36.7W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 45.1 North, longitude 36.7 West. Nigel is moving
toward the east-northeast near 37 mph (59 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A slower
northward or north-northwestward motion is expected this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone
tonight or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220239
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.1N 36.7W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 32 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 180SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..230NE 360SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.1N 36.7W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.2N 38.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 47.5N 30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 110SE 90SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 220SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 51.3N 25.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 200SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 55.0N 23.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 56.9N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.1N 36.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 212044
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 21 2023

Nigel's satellite presentation has begun to degrade as increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear has caused the deep convection to
become displaced to the northeast of the low-level center. A blend
of the latest Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers and the
objective estimates yields an initial intensity estimate of 70 kt.

A continued increase in vertical wind shear and cooler waters along
the track of Nigel should cause additional weakening. Nigel is
expected to quickly complete its extratropical transition by 12
hours, and only gradual weakening is forecast after that time. The
storm has grown in size, and a continue expansion of the 34-kt wind
field is expected during the next couple of days.

Nigel is moving east-northeastward or 060/32 kt. An east-
northeastward to northeastward motion along the southeastern
side of a strong deep-layer mid-latitude trough is expected during
the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Nigel should rotate
around the eastern side of a large extratropical cyclone over the
North Atlantic. The dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered,
and the NHC forecast is near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 43.7N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 46.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 22/1800Z 49.4N 27.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 53.6N 23.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 57.0N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0600Z 57.5N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212043
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 21 2023

...NIGEL GROWING IN SIZE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC ...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.7N 40.8W
ABOUT 630 MI...1020 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 43.7 North, longitude 40.8 West. Nigel is moving
toward the east-northeast near 37 mph (59 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A slower
northward or north-northwestward motion is expected this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or
early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 212043
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.7N 40.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 32 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 180SE 180SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 330SE 360SW 410NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.7N 40.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 42.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 46.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 110SE 90SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 220SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 49.4N 27.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 200SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 53.6N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 57.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 57.5N 25.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...330NE 420SE 250SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.7N 40.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 211436
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2023

Nigel is still maintaining some deep convection, with cloud tops
in bands to near -70 deg C. However, increasing southwesterly
vertical wind shear is beginning to cause an elongation of the cloud
pattern toward the northeast. Subjective Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB continue to give Current
Intensity numbers corresponding to 77 kt, and objective ADT
estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little lower than that value. The
advisory intensity is held at 75 kt.

The current motion is quickly northeastward, or about 050/26 kt.
Nigel is embedded in the flow on the southeastern side of a strong
deep-layer mid-latitude trough. This steering pattern should
continue to carry the cyclone rapidly toward the northeast through
tonight. On Friday, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of
a large extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic.

Vertical wind shear over Nigel should become very high within the
next 24 hours, and the cyclone will be moving over significantly
cooler waters later today. Therefore weakening should occur, and
global model guidance indicates that the system will become
embedded in a frontal zone by early Friday. In 2 to 3 days, Nigel
is expected to merge with the large cyclone over the North
Atlantic, and dissipate.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 42.2N 45.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 44.2N 38.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 47.3N 30.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0000Z 51.0N 24.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1200Z 55.2N 22.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0000Z 57.4N 24.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211436
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2023

...NIGEL MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.2N 45.0W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 42.2 North, longitude 45.0 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or
early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 211436
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 45.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 330SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 45.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 44.2N 38.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 47.3N 30.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 51.0N 24.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 55.2N 22.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 57.4N 24.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.2N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210839
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2023

Nigel is starting to feel the effects of increased vertical wind
shear this morning. Proxy-vis and infrared satellite imagery show
that the large, ragged eye from the past few days has become
obscured. An AMSR microwave pass at 0513 UTC confirmed that the
eyewall structure has collapsed, and a thick curved band on the
northern side is all that remains. Vertical wind shear has the deep
convection displaced to the northern side of the system, within the
main banding feature, with cold cloud tops in the northwest
semicircle near -70 Celsius. Subjective satellite current intensity
(CI) values were 4.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Given the degradation
in the satellite appearance and these estimates, the initial
intensity is set to 75 kt for this advisory.

Nigel is moving swiftly to the northeast at an estimated motion of
50/ 26 kt. The system is currently moving within the flow ahead of a
mid-latitude trough off the northeast US Coast and Atlantic
Canada, with this quick northeast motion expected to continue
during the next day or two. Late Friday and into the weekend,
models show Nigel interacting with a larger polar low over the
North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory and remains near the consensus aids.

The hurricane is moving into a more hostile environment with
vertical deep layer shear forecast to further increase, and sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track continue to cool over
the northern Atlantic. Nigel is also entering a drier mid-level air
mass with relative humidities below 40 percent. Nigel should begin
to transition into an extratropical cyclone very soon, and this
process is expected to be complete in about 24 hours. The ECMWF and
GFS SHIPS guidance show extratropical transition occuring even
sooner than what is forecast. The official intensity forecast shows
gradual weakening, with Nigel becoming a powerful extratropical
cyclone on Friday. By the end of the forecast period, Nigel will
become absorbed in the aforementioned larger polar low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 40.6N 47.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 42.9N 42.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 45.9N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 22/1800Z 49.5N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/0600Z 53.1N 23.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/1800Z 56.8N 23.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0600Z 58.3N 24.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210839
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2023

...NIGEL MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 47.8W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 40.6 North, longitude 47.8 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Nigel currently affecting Bermuda will
gradually subside through tonight. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210838
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 47.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 330SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 47.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.9N 42.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 45.9N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 160SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 49.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 53.1N 23.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 56.8N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 58.3N 24.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.6N 47.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210237
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2023

Geostationary satellite imagery shows Nigel's outflow being
impinged upon by an upstream trough. Still, the hurricane has
maintained its large, ragged eye surrounded by deep convection
with cloud top temperatures ranging from -60 to -70 degrees C.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T4.5/77 kt,
and the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane has begun to accelerate northeastward at an estimated
045/22 kt. Nigel's forward speed is expected to increase through
Friday in the flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough exiting the
northeast US coast. By the weekend, global models show Nigel
interacting with a large extratropical system over the North
Atlantic. Little changes have been made to the latest NHC forecast,
which is largely an update of the previous prediction.

Nigel is nearing the 26 degree isotherm and should cross over it
in a few hours. Deep-layer vertical wind shear is also expected to
increase significantly over the next 24 hours. Nigel should begin
to transition into an extratropical cyclone soon, and this process
is expected to be complete in about 48 hours. The official
intensity prediction shows gradual weakening through day 2, and
Nigel is forecast to become a powerful extratropical cyclone on
Friday. By the end of the forecast period, Nigel should be absorbed
by the larger mid-latitude cyclone mentioned previously.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 39.0N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 41.2N 46.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 44.2N 39.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 47.3N 31.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 50.9N 25.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/1200Z 54.9N 22.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0000Z 56.6N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0000Z 58.0N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210236
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2023

...NIGEL ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 50.4W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 50.4 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and is expected to
accelerate northeastward over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Nigel currently affecting Bermuda will
gradually subside through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210236
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 50.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 320SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 50.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 51.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.2N 46.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 44.2N 39.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 170SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 47.3N 31.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 220SE 170SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 50.9N 25.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 240SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 54.9N 22.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 56.6N 22.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 58.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 50.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 202038
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2023

Nigel has changed little in organization on satellite images since
earlier today. The ragged-looking eye remains quite large, reported
to be 60 n mi in diameter by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
There are still bands of deep convection with cloud tops to near -70
deg C, primarily over the northwestern and western portions of the
circulation, and the overall cloud pattern continues to have a
symmetrical appearance. The central pressure measured by the
aircraft has not changed much since earlier today and wind data from
the plane suggest that the intensity remains near 80 kt.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite images show
that the hurricane's motion is beginning to bend to the right and is
now north-northeastward, or around 030/16 kt. Nigel should move
along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical high pressure cell
tonight. In 12 to about 60 hours, the flow on the southeastern
side of a strong mid-latitude 500 mb trough should carry the system
northeastward at a fast pace toward, and over, the northern
Atlantic. According to the global models, in 72 to 96 hours, Nigel
should undergo a binary interaction with a large extratropical low
over the North Atlantic. By 120 hours or sooner, the system is
forecast to merge with this low.

Over the next few days, Nigel will be moving over progressively
cooler ocean waters and into an environment of stronger
southwesterly vertical wind shear. Gradual weakening is forecast,
and the system is expected to become embedded in a baroclinic zone
on Friday. Therefore, extratropical transition is indicated in the
48 hour forecast. Since Nigel is expected to merge with the
aforementioned North Atlantic low in about 5 days, dissipation is
shown at the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 37.4N 53.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 39.8N 49.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 42.8N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 45.7N 35.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 49.0N 27.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/1800Z 56.0N 23.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/1800Z 57.0N 23.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202037
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2023

...NIGEL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 53.0W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 53.0 West. Nigel is moving
toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion over the next day
or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Nigel will affect Bermuda during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 202036
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 53.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 53.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 53.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.8N 49.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.8N 43.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 170SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 45.7N 35.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 220SE 170SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 49.0N 27.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 240SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 56.0N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 53.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 201443
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2023

Nigel is maintaining a ragged-appearing eye on visible and
infrared satellite imagery. Bands of deep convection with tops to
around -70C continue to rotate around the center, and the system's
cloud pattern remains fairly symmetrical. Although microwave
imagery from around 0900 UTC showed a closed eyewall, recent
geostationary images suggest breaks in the eyewall over the
eastern portion of the circulation. Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and
SAB are 4.5, corresponding to a 77-kt intensity, and an objective
ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS was 79 kt. Based on these values, the
advisory intensity estimate was reduced only slightly, to 80 kt.
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Nigel
soon.

The hurricane is moving northward, or perhaps slightly east of
north, with an initial motion of 010/16 kt. The system has been
moving around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure
area. A mid-latitude trough to the northwest of Nigel should cause
the cyclone to turn toward the northeast and the cyclone
should continue to move northeastward at a faster forward speed over
the next couple of days. In 48 to 72 hours, Nigel is expected to
rotate counter-clockwise around the eastern side of a large
extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic. Although the
official forecast shows track points at 4 and 5 days, there is a
good chance that Nigel will merge with, or become absorbed by, the
other cyclone around that time. The official forecast is very
similar to the previous NHC track prediction.

Nigel has only about 12 hours remaining before moving over cooler
waters, and southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to increase
tonight. Gradual weakening is expected over the next 2-3 days, in
general agreement with the consensus intensity forecast guidance.
The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast period is
uncertain, given the distinct possibility that Nigel could merge
with the other extratropical cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 36.1N 54.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 38.4N 51.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 41.6N 46.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 44.6N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 47.6N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/0000Z 51.3N 24.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/1200Z 55.0N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/1200Z 57.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1200Z 58.0N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2023

...NIGEL HEADED NORTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 54.4W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 54.4 West. Nigel is moving
toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed
by a faster northeastward motion over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Nigel will affect Bermuda during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 201442
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 54.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 54.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 54.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 38.4N 51.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.6N 46.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 44.6N 39.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 47.6N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 220SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 51.3N 24.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 55.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 57.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 58.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 54.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200841
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2023

Nigel's overall satellite appearance has not changed much from the
previous advisory. Deep convection remains on the southern portion
of a thick band around the center of the system. Infrared imagery
shows that the eyewall has been opened on the northern side, but has
tried to fill in recently. There have been no microwave passes over
the system overnight to get a better idea of the overall structure
of Nigel. Subjective intensity estimates have remained fairly
steady, with a CI of 4.5/5.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Given
these estimates and similar satellite appearance, the initial
intensity is held at 85 kt.

Nigel has about 18-24 hours before it is expected to move over
cooler sea surface temperatures and into significantly stronger
vertical wind shear. As a result, the latest NHC intensity forecast
shows Nigel remaining steady to slightly weakening in the short
term, followed by steady weakening through the remainder of the
forecast period. Although weakening is forecast, Nigel is expected
to be a strong extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours.

The system is moving toward the north at 14 kt, as Nigel rounds the
edge of a mid-level ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic.
Later today, the system is expected to turn northeastward and
accelerate in the flow of a deep-layer trough located over Atlantic
Canada. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement in the
short term with only slight along-track speed differences. The NHC
track forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, and lies
near the consensus aids, but still not as fast as HCCA. As Nigel
reaches high latitudes, the extratropical low is forecast to
interact with a broader cyclonic circulation over the north
Atlantic, and it is possible that Nigel gets absorbed by this
broader circulation towards the end of the period. There is higher
track uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period due to this
interaction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 34.4N 54.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 36.7N 53.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 39.8N 49.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 42.8N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 45.7N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 22/1800Z 49.2N 28.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0600Z 52.4N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0600Z 57.1N 23.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0600Z 59.1N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2023

...NIGEL HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 54.9W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 54.9 West. Nigel is moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nigel has likely reached its peak intensity, with gradual
weakening expected later today, followed by faster rate of weakening
on Friday. Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Nigel will affect Bermuda during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200838
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 54.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 54.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 55.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.7N 53.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.8N 49.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.8N 43.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 45.7N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 49.2N 28.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 52.4N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 57.1N 23.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 59.1N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 54.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200240
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2023

Nigel appears to be succumbing to the effects of southerly wind
shear this evening. Deep convection in the eastern portion of the
circulation has eroded, and the eyewall has opened to the northeast.
Still, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range
between 102 to 77 kt. The initial intensity is held at a possibly
generous 85 kt, to represent a blend of these estimates.

Global model guidance suggests oceanic and environmental conditions
could be marginally conducive for strengthening for only a short
while longer. In a day or so, Nigel is expected to move over
waters cooler than 26 degrees Celsius, and the deep-layer vertical
wind shear is forecast to significantly increase. As a result, the
latest NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity
of 90 kt in the short-term forecast, followed by steady weakening
through the remainder of the forecast period. Nigel should become
a powerful extratropical cyclone in about 60 h.

The hurricane is moving toward the north at 13 kt on the western
edge of a mid-level ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic. By
Wednesday, Nigel is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate
in the flow of a deep-layer trough located over the northeastern
United States and Atlantic Canada. In the first few days, there is
little spread in the track guidance envelope, and only minor
adjustments have been made to the latest official forecast. As
Nigel moves poleward, the extratropical low is forecast to interact
with a broader cyclonic circulation over the north Atlantic on days
4 and 5, which introduces increased track uncertainty late in the
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 33.2N 54.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 35.3N 54.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 38.4N 51.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 41.6N 46.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 44.4N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 47.5N 31.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0000Z 50.8N 25.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0000Z 57.1N 22.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z 58.9N 21.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2023

...NIGEL TURNS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 54.7W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 54.7 West. Nigel is moving
toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through early
Wednesday. Weakening is expected on Thursday and Friday. Nigel is
forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Nigel will affect Bermuda during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200237
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 54.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 54.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.3N 54.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 38.4N 51.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.6N 46.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 44.4N 39.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 47.5N 31.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 50.8N 25.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 170SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 57.1N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 58.9N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 54.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 192044
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2023

The satellite structure of Nigel has improved this afternoon.
Satellite images indicate a solid ring of deep convection surrounds
the large, 45 to 50-n-mi wide eye of the hurricane. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters have conducted research missions into Nigel today
and provided helpful data to better assess the hurricane's structure
and intensity. The aircraft recorded peak 700-mb flight-level winds
of around 100 kt, which reduces to a surface intensity of 90 kt
using a standard reduction factor. However, peak SFMR winds from
both planes were around 75 kt, and dropsonde data indicate only
modest pressure falls to around 974 mb. Based on a blend of these
data, the initial intensity is set at 85 kt for this advisory. The
wind radii were adjusted slightly outward based on the aircraft data
and scatterometer data received just after the previous advisory.

Given its improved structure, additional near-term strengthening is
forecast as Nigel moves over 28C SSTs in a weak vertical shear
environment. By late Wednesday, the guidance indicates deep-layer
shear will increase while the hurricane quickly moves into a drier
environment over much cooler waters. So, the NHC forecast shows
steady weakening through late week that closely follows the latest
multi-model consensus aids. The global model fields indicate that
Nigel will complete its extratropical transition by 60 h, which is
reflected in this advisory.

It appears that Nigel has begun to turn more northward, and its
initial motion is now north-northwestward (330/12 kt). The steering
ridge to the northeast of Nigel will continue to slide eastward
through tonight. As a result, the hurricane is expected to turn
northward around the western periphery of this ridge. Then, Nigel
should turn northeastward and accelerate within the flow ahead of a
deep-layer trough moving across the northeastern United States and
Atlantic Canada. The track guidance remains well clustered around
this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast was only nudged
slightly west based on the latest TVCA and HCCA aids. As Nigel moves
deeper into the mid-latitudes, the extratropical low is forecast to
become captured within a broader cyclonic circulation over the north
Atlantic on days 4 and 5, which introduces increased track
uncertainty late in the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 31.8N 54.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 33.7N 54.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 36.7N 53.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 39.8N 49.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 42.8N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 45.7N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 48.6N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z 56.0N 20.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z 58.0N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192042
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND NIGEL HAS STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 54.7W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 54.7 West. Nigel is moving
toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight, followed by an acceleration toward the
northeast through the rest of the week.

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is possible through early Wednesday.
Weakening is expected on Thursday and Friday. Nigel is forecast to
become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Nigel will affect Bermuda during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 191452
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2023

Nigel continues to exhibit a large eye about 50 n mi across on
satellite images this morning. The surrounding deep convection has
intensified somewhat over the southern and western portions of the
circulation, and the overall cloud pattern is fairly symmetrical.
The current intensity estimate is increased to 80 kt in agreement
with the latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the hurricane shortly
and should provide a more accurate estimate of Nigel's intensity.

There is still about one more day for the hurricane to intensify
while it remains over SSTs near 28 deg C with weak vertical wind
shear. Therefore, the official forecast shows some short-term
strengthening and this is generally above the model guidance. In
48 to 72 hours, the dynamical model guidance shows a large increase
in shear which, along with cooler waters, should result in
weakening. By 72 hours, the global model forecast indicates that
Nigel will become a frontal low over the northern Atlantic and this
is shown in the official forecast.

As noted earlier, the track forecast for Nigel appears to be
straightforward. The system is currently moving northwestward
along the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone. In 12
to 24 hours, Nigel should turn northward while it moves around
the high. Afterwards, the system is likely to accelerate
northeastward to the southeast and south of a strong mid-level
trough. In 3-5 days, Nigel is expected to rotate around the eastern
side of a large extratropical low over the North Atlantic. The NHC
track forecast is close to the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 30.5N 54.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 32.3N 54.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 35.0N 54.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 38.0N 51.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 41.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 43.8N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 46.5N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1200Z 59.0N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2023

...NIGEL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 54.3W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 54.3 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The hurricane is
forecast to turn northward late today, and then accelerate rapidly
northeastward through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Nigel could strengthen some more through early
Wednesday, but weakening is likely on Thursday and Friday. Nigel
is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Nigel are expected to reach Bermuda
later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 191451
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 54.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 54.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 53.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.3N 54.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.0N 54.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 38.0N 51.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.0N 46.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 43.8N 39.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 170SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 46.5N 31.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 170SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 59.0N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 54.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190833
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2023

Nigel is sending mixed signals this morning. While the large eye of
the hurricane has become better defined and warmer, convection
around the eyewall has weakened (and AMSR2 microwave data show the
eyewall is open on the north side). This convective disruption
appears to be due to persistent dry air and just enough shear to
entrain that air into the inner core. Satellite intensity estimates
remain about the same as 6 h ago, so the initial wind speed is
unchanged at 75 kt. Both of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter P-3 aircraft
are scheduled to be in the hurricane late this morning, so we should
have a more precise assessment of Nigel this afternoon.

The hurricane still has another day or so to intensify while it
remains in light-shear and warm-water conditions, which could
facilitate mixing out the dry air that has plagued the internal
convective structure. However, it seems like changes with Nigel will
be gradual since it has formed a large eye (which tends to be more
stable). Nigel should undergo a rapid extratropical transition from
48 to 72 h as it comes under the influence of a strong mid-latitude
trough. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast,
above the intensity consensus at short range and near the model
average at longer range. SAR data from yesterday evening did
suggest Nigel that has grown in size, so that's reflected in the
current and near-term forecast wind radii.

The track forecast seems straightforward with Nigel, as the current
northwestward motion should bend to northward late today while the
hurricane moves along the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge. Nigel should then move rather quickly northeastward through
late week due to fast flow ahead of a mid-latitudes trough dropping
out of the Canadian Maritimes, then northward as an extratropical
low this weekend as it is captured by the trough south of Iceland.
The new forecast is shifted a touch left to come into better
agreement with the consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 29.6N 53.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 31.2N 54.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 33.8N 54.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 36.7N 53.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 39.6N 49.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 42.5N 42.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 45.0N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0600Z 51.8N 21.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0600Z 58.5N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190831
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2023

...NIGEL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TODAY WITH A LARGE EYE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 53.6W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 53.6 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The hurricane is
forecast to turn northward late today, and then accelerate
rapidly northeastward through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nigel is forecast to strengthen some through early
Wednesday, with weakening likely on Thursday and Friday. Nigel is
forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Nigel are expected to reach Bermuda
later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190829
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 53.6W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 53.6W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 53.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.2N 54.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.8N 54.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.7N 53.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 49.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.5N 42.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 170SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 45.0N 34.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 170SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 51.8N 21.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 58.5N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 53.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190242
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2023

Nigel has become a little better organized this evening, with a
ragged eye becoming more apparent in infrared satellite imagery. An
earlier SSMIS microwave overpass revealed a fairly well-defined
low-level inner-core structure, but the eye was open to the
northwest. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were a consensus T4.5 (77 kt), and the various objective estimates
were in the 70-80 kt range at 0000 UTC. Based on a blend of these
intensity estimates, the initial wind speed is set at 75 kt for
this advisory.

Although Nigel's strengthening appears to have been disrupted by
dry air entrainment today, the hurricane has about another 24-36
hours within low shear conditions and over warm SSTs in which
to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast calls for additional
strengthening during that time, but the peak intensity has been
lowered slightly. After 36-48 hours, increasing southwesterly
vertical wind shear and cooler SSTS along the track of Nigel are
expected to cause gradual weakening. The NHC wind speed forecast
is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected-consensus aid, which
is at the higher end of the guidance in the short term. The global
models indicate that extratropical transition is likely to begin by
72 hours, and that process should be complete by day 4.

Nigel continues to move northwestward (310 degrees) at about 10 kt.
The hurricane should continue on that general heading and speed
through midday Tuesday, but as it nears the western extent of the
ridge, Nigel is predicted to turn northwestward and northward
shortly thereafter. By 48 hours, an approaching mid- to upper-level
trough is forecast to cause Nigel to accelerate northeastward over
the central and northeastern Atlantic through the remainder of the
forecast period. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, with
the primary differences being how much Nigel accelerates
northeastward later in the period. The NHC track forecast is a
blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models, nd is close
to the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 28.6N 52.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 29.9N 53.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 32.1N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 34.7N 54.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 37.6N 51.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 40.5N 46.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 43.4N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 50.0N 24.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0000Z 57.0N 17.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190240
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2023

...NIGEL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 52.7W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 52.7 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Tuesday. Nigel is forecast to turn
northward late Tuesday, and then accelerate northeastward through
the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by late
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Nigel are expected to reach Bermuda on
Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190240
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 52.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 52.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 52.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N 53.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.1N 54.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.7N 54.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 37.6N 51.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 40.5N 46.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 43.4N 39.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 50.0N 24.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 57.0N 17.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 52.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 182045
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2023

The center of Nigel is embedded within a central dense overcast of
cold infrared cloud tops this afternoon. Recent GMI microwave images
do not show much improvement to the hurricane's inner core
structure, as it appears some drier air could be intruding into the
north side of the circulation. There is no eye feature apparent in
conventional satellite imagery at this time. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimates are T4.0 (SAB) and T4.5 (TAFB). Meanwhile, the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON intensity estimates are 63 kt and 71
kt, respectively. A blend of these data support holding the initial
intensity at 70 kt for this advisory.

Despite seemingly conducive environmental conditions for
strengthening, Nigel's intensification appears to have been
disrupted, possibly by dry air entrainment related to some mid-level
shear. If the hurricane can solidify its inner core during the next
day or so, the very warm SSTs and relatively low shear should allow
for some strengthening in the near term. The NHC forecast has been
slightly lowered from the previous one but still shows Nigel peaking
near major hurricane intensity in 36-48 h. This prediction lies
above the latest intensity guidance, closest to HCCA and some of the
regional hurricane models (HAFS-A). Beyond 48 h, increasing
deep-layer shear associated with the upper trough and rapidly
cooling SSTs are forecast to induce steady weakening through the
rest of the period.

A mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic continues to steer Nigel
northwestward (320/10 kt). The hurricane is expected to turn
northward over the next couple of days while it moves around the
western periphery of this steering ridge. Then, an upper-level
trough moving across the western Atlantic is forecast to cause Nigel
to accelerate northeastward and move deeper in the mid-latitudes
through late this week. The NHC forecast remains near the center of
the tightly clustered track guidance, with a faster forward motion
shown later in the period in agreement with the TVCA and HCCA aids.
This takes Nigel more quickly into the mid-latitudes, and the latest
global model fields and phase diagrams suggest its extratropical
transition should be complete by 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 28.0N 52.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 29.2N 53.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 31.0N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 33.4N 54.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 36.2N 53.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 39.1N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 42.1N 43.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 48.0N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1800Z 56.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster B Reinhart/A Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 182044
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 52.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 52.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.2N 53.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.4N 54.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.2N 53.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.1N 50.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.1N 43.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 48.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 56.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 52.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER B REINHART/A REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182045
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2023

...NIGEL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 52.2W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 52.2 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Tuesday. Nigel is forecast to turn
northward late Tuesday, and then accelerate northeastward through
the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nigel is expected to strengthen during the next couple of
days. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin by late
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster B Reinhart/A Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181443
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2023

Nigel is exhibiting a somewhat ragged-looking eye on satellite
imagery, surrounded by bands of very deep convection with cloud
tops to -80 deg C. High-level outflow has become a bit restricted
over the northeastern quadrant of the circulation, but overall the
system continues to become better organized. The current intensity
estimate of 70 kt is a blend of subjective and objective
satellite-derived estimates.

During the next day or so, the hurricane should remain in an
environment that is quite conducive for strengthening. Vertical
shear is forecast to remain very low and SSTs are near 28 deg C.
The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) Index continues to show above
normal probabilities of RI. Accordingly, the official forecast
calls for a 30-kt increase in intensity during the ensuing 24
hours. In a couple of days, increasing shear and cooler waters are
likely to result in the beginning of a gradual weakening trend. In
4-5 days, global forecast models depict Nigel becoming involved with
a frontal zone over the North Atlantic. Therefore, the official
forecast shows the system as extratropical in 5 days, although this
transition could occur a little sooner than that.

Nigel's motion continues toward the northwest, or at about 325/10
kt. The hurricane is currently situated on the southwestern edge
of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next day or two, the
system should move around the western periphery of the high.
On this track, Nigel will turn northward in about 36 hours.
Thereafter, the cyclone should accelerate in the flow to the
southeast and south of a strong mid-latitude trough, and head into
the higher latitudes of the Atlantic. The track guidance is
fairly tightly clustered, and the new official forecast is
very similar to the previous one. This is also in close agreement
with the dynamical model consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 27.2N 51.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 28.4N 52.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 30.0N 53.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 32.0N 54.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 34.6N 54.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 37.4N 52.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 40.3N 47.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 46.5N 33.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 53.5N 20.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2023

...NIGEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 51.4W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 51.4 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Nigel is then
forecast to turn northward late Tuesday, and then accelerate
northeastward through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nigel is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a major
hurricane on Tuesday. A gradual weakening trend could start on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181442
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 51.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 51.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 51.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.4N 52.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.0N 53.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 54.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.6N 54.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 37.4N 52.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 40.3N 47.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 160SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 46.5N 33.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 53.5N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 51.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180844
TCDAT5

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2023

Infrared satellite imagery indicates that Nigel is getting better
organized in a hurry. Deep convective towers have been quickly
rotating around a developing eyewall, and an AMSR2 microwave pass
indicated that a low-level eye feature had developed. Intensity
estimates at 06 UTC ranged from 60-70 kt, and given the increasing
organization on satellite and microwave data, the initial wind speed
is raised to 70 kt.

It seems like the long-awaited rapid intensification phase of Nigel
is underway. Very deep convective cloud tops are in the central
dense overcast, with warm waters and light shear for at least a day
or two along the path of the hurricane. These conditions should
promote significant strengthening, and it makes sense to forecast a
period of rapid intensification, only moderated by somewhat cooler
waters after 36 hours, along with possible eyewall replacement
cycles. It is interesting to note that most of the regional
hurricane guidance has come down this cycle, with the hurricane
models showing a very deep, but larger system with lower maximum
winds. The new forecast is closer to the previous NHC interpolated
forecast, the statistical aids, and the COAMPS-TC ensemble. Nigel
should undergo a quick extratropical transition between days 4 and
5, consistent with all of the global model predictions.

Nigel is moving northwestward with an estimated motion of 325/10 kt.
This general northwestward to north-northwestward heading should
continue for the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge builds to
the northeast of the system. In a couple of days, Nigel will reach
the western edge of the ridge and turn more northward. By the end of
the forecast period, a strong trough will pick up the system, and
Nigel should accelerate quite rapidly towards the northeast. There
are no significant changes to report with the latest NHC track
forecast, as at last the rightward shift of the guidance seems to
have ended.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 26.5N 50.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 27.6N 51.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 29.1N 53.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 30.8N 54.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 33.1N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 35.7N 53.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 38.5N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 44.5N 37.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 51.5N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2023

...NIGEL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 50.7W
ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 50.7 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Nigel is then
forecast to turn northward late Tuesday, and then accelerate
northeastward through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Nigel is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a
major hurricane on Tuesday. A gradual weakening trend could start
late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180842
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 50.7W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 50.7W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 50.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.6N 51.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.1N 53.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.8N 54.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.1N 55.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.7N 53.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N 50.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 44.5N 37.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 51.5N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 50.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180239
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nigel Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

Proxy-vis and infrared satellite imagery show that Nigel is
becoming better organized and continues to strengthen this evening.
Deep convection continues to burst near the center, with cold cloud
tops to -80 degrees Celsius. An earlier SSMI/S microwave pass
depicts that an inner core has developed and it is vertically
aligned with the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB were T4.0/T3.5, respectively. Given a blend of these
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this
advisory.

Nigel is moving north-northwestward with an estimated motion of
330/10 kt. This general north-northwestward heading should continue
for the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge builds to the
northeast of the system. In about 2 to 3 days, Nigel should begin
to round the western edge of the ridge and move more northward. By
the end of the forecast period, a strong trough will pick up the
system, and Nigel should accelerate towards the northeast. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies near
the simple and corrected consensus aids.

The environment around Nigel is conducive for steady to rapid
intensification. Vertical wind shear is fairly low, with warm sea
surface temperatures, and outflow aloft continues to become more
pronounced. The SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification (RI) indices
continue to show above climatological normal chances of RI. Given
the improving structure and the favorable environment, the NHC
intensity forecast reflects this and forecasts rapid
intensification over the next 24-36 hrs, with Nigel expected to
become a hurricane overnight, and a major hurricane on Tuesday.
Towards the end of the period, Nigel will likely become a strong
extratropical cyclone as the aforementioned trough picks up the
system, and it becomes embedded within a frontal zone. The NHC
intensity forecast lies near the upper-end of the guidance envelope,
closest to the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 25.8N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 27.0N 51.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 28.5N 52.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 30.1N 54.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 32.1N 55.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 34.4N 54.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 37.4N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 43.1N 42.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 50.8N 28.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180238
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nigel Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

...NIGEL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 50.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nigel was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 50.2 West. Nigel is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
Nigel is then forecast to turn northward late Tuesday, and then
accelerate northeastward through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours. Nigel will likely become a hurricane overnight, and is
forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 172042
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nigel Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

Nigel's organization continues to increase, with several convective
bands noted over the northern portion of the circulation.
Although microwave imagery shows that an eyewall structure has not
yet formed, it seems likely that an inner core will develop fairly
soon. The current intensity is set at 55 kt based on a subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB although objective
estimates are a little lower.

Nigel continues northwestward with an estimated motion of 325/11 kt.
The system should continue on a generally northwestward track over
the next couple of days while a mid-level high builds to its
east-northeast. By Wednesday, Nigel should turn northward and move
along the western side of the high. Later in the forecast period,
the system is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow on
the southeast side of a strong mid-latitude trough. The NHC
forecast is roughly in the middle of the track guidance envelope and
lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus
solutions.

The system's environment appears to be very conducive for
strengthening. The vertical wind shear is quite weak and there is
well-defined upper-level anticyclonic outflow over the area. The
various rapid intensification (RI) indices are in agreement on a
significantly higher-than-normal likelihood of RI. This is also
reflected in the official intensity forecast, which shows Nigel
becoming a major hurricane within the next couple of days. By the
end of the forecast period, the system will likely become embedded
within a frontal zone and transition into a strong extratropical
cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 25.1N 49.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 26.3N 50.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 27.8N 52.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.2N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 31.0N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 33.1N 55.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 35.7N 54.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 41.3N 45.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 47.8N 31.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 172040
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nigel Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

...NIGEL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 49.5W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nigel was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 49.5 West. Nigel is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Nigel
is then forecast to turn northward by late Tuesday and accelerate
northeastward after that.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours. Nigel will likely become a hurricane tonight, and is
forecast to approach major hurricane intensity in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 172040
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 49.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 49.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N 50.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.8N 52.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.2N 53.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.1N 55.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.7N 54.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 41.3N 45.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 47.8N 31.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 49.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 171439
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nigel Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

Based on satellite imagery, Nigel appears to be steadily
strengthening. A prominent curved band of deep convection wraps
around the northern half of the tropical storm, with additional
convective activity recently observed very near its center.
Satellite intensity estimates range from around 45 to 55 kt, so the
initial intensity is set at a near-consensus value of 50 kt.

Nigel is in an environment that should support strengthening, and in
fact the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS rapid intensification models indicate
it has a near 50/50 chance of strengthening 25 kt in the next 24 h
and/or 55 kt in the next 48 h. Recent SSMIS imagery at 0911 UTC
indicated that the inner core of Nigel is probably not yet
well-enough developed to support immediate rapid intensification,
but that could happen at some point later today. Most of the
intensity models indicate that Nigel's intensity will peak in about
60 h, before increasing wind shear and cooler waters begin to affect
it. Extratropical transition should then begin in about 4 days, and
that process will likely be near complete at the end of the forecast
period. Only very small adjustments were made to the NHC intensity
forecast, which is very near the IVCN intensity consensus.

Likewise, nearly no changes were made to the official track
forecast. For the next 4-5 days, Nigel should generally move between
a ridge centered between Nigel and Margot, and a mid-latitude trough
that is forecast to move off the eastern coasts of the U.S. and
Canada early this week. These features will likely steer Nigel
generally northwestward for the next 2 days, and cause it to
accelerate northeastward after that. The NHC track forecast
continues to be based primarily on the HCCA and TVCN models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 24.0N 49.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 25.3N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 26.8N 51.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 28.2N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 29.8N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 31.8N 55.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 34.2N 54.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 39.6N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 46.5N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171438
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nigel Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

...NIGEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 49.1W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nigel was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 49.1 West. Nigel is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Nigel is
then forecast to turn northward by late Tuesday and accelerate
northeastward after that.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected and Nigel will
likely become a hurricane tonight or on Monday. Nigel is forecast to
approach major hurricane intensity by mid-week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 171437
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 49.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 49.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 48.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.3N 50.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.8N 51.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.2N 53.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 54.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.8N 55.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.2N 54.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 39.6N 49.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 46.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170845
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nigel Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

Nigel's satellite structure has improved overnight as deep
convection has taken on a distinct curved band appearance to the
north of the estimated center. With that said, we have not
received any recent microwave imagery to confirm if the low-level
circulation has tightened up or has become more embedded in the deep
convection, though derived motion winds from the 1-minute meso
sector over the system do suggest the center has likely tucked
underneath the convective cirrus canopy. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T3.0/45 kt, and the
recent objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 44-50 kt range.
The initial intensity will be set at 45 kt, on the lower end given
the uncertainty on the center position.

Based on the estimated position, Nigel has been moving somewhat
right of the prior track forecast, off to the north-northwest at
330/12 kt. This continued rightward motion relative to the track
forecast over the past 24 hours could be related to Margot eroding
the mid-level ridging located northeast of Nigel, in addition to a
mid- to upper-level trough favoring more convection on Nigel's
eastern flank overall. However, as Margot continues to weaken, this
mid-level ridging should rebuild, allowing Nigel to bend a bit more
northwestward in the 24-48 hour time frame. By the middle of next
week, the global model guidance is in good agreement that Nigel
should recurve to the northeast as it gets picked up by a
mid-latitude trough ejecting off the eastern U.S. coastline. The NHC
track forecast continues to lie near the TVCA and HCCA consensus
aids, which is a little east of the prior forecast, but not far off
of a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.

While it is unclear to know without recent microwave imagery if
Nigel is in the early stages of developing an inner core, the
improvement of the larger-scale structure on satellite suggests
further intensification is likely. Both GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance show vertical wind shear should remain low (under 10 kt)
for the next 48-72 hours, while sea-surface temperatures remain
between 28-30C. While mid-level relative humidity is a bit on the
low side, this may only help to tighten up the core from its initial
large origin assuming the shear remains low. SHIPS-RII and DTOPS
continue to suggest a significant chance of rapid intensification
over the next 2-3 days, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now
shows Nigel peaking as a category 3 hurricane again. This is a bit
higher than the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, but close to the raw
model output of the HAFS, HWRF, and COAMPS-TC models. By the end of
the forecast, Nigel will likely be undergoing extratropical
transition, though this process might not be complete until just
beyond the 120 h point.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 23.0N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 24.5N 49.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 26.0N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 27.5N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 28.8N 54.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 30.5N 55.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 32.7N 55.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 38.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 44.5N 40.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nigel Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

...NIGEL STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 48.6W
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nigel was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 48.6 West. Nigel is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a
general northwest to north-northwest motion is expected to continue
for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Nigel is expected to become a hurricane on
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170841
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.6W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.6W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 48.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N 49.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.5N 52.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 28.8N 54.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.5N 55.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.7N 55.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 38.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 44.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170241
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nigel Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

The satellite presentation of the cyclone has improved this evening
as there has been an increase in convective banding over the
northern portion of the circulation. The center appears to be
located near the southern portion of the convective mass. Dvorak
Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB were T2.5 (35 kt) at 0000 UTC
and objective satellite estimates from UW/CIMSS are in the 35 to 40
kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
raised to 35 kt. Nigel becomes the 10th named storm to form in
the Atlantic basin since August 20th.

Nigel is moving northwestward at about 14 kt. A mid-level ridge
to the northeast of the cyclone should steer the storm
northwestward during the next few days. After that time, Nigel is
expected to turn northward around the western side of the ridge. By
the middle of next week, the global model guidance indicates that
the storm should turn northeast ahead of a broad mid-latitude
trough over the western Atlantic. There is fairly good agreement
in the global model guidance on the overall scenario, but there are
some timing or forward speed difference later in the period. The
NHC forecast track is near the HFIP corrected consensus which is
close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for steady
intensification during the next few days, with low vertical wind
shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track.
A period of rapid intensification is is certainly possible within
the next two to three days. Although the SHIP RI probabilities are
not very high at the moment, DTOPS gives a 50 percent chance of a 65
kt increase in intensity during the next 72 hours. The NHC forecast
is close to that, showing a 60 kt increase in strength during the
time. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear is likely to
cause gradual weakening. The NHC wind speed forecast is closest to
the HFIP corrected consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 22.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 23.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 25.3N 50.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 26.7N 52.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 27.8N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 29.4N 55.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 31.3N 56.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 36.0N 55.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 41.9N 47.3W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170240
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nigel Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 48.0W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nigel was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 48.0 West. Nigel is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Nigel is expected to become a hurricane on
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170240
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 48.0W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 48.0W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 47.6W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.6N 49.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.3N 50.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.7N 52.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.8N 54.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.4N 55.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.3N 56.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 36.0N 55.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 41.9N 47.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 162035
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

The tropical depression remains poorly organized this afternoon.
However, visible satellite imagery continues to indicate a broad
region of low- and mid-level rotation, and deep convection has
increased somewhat in the northern semicircle of the disturbance.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB remain steady at 25 kt
and 35 kt, respectively. Based on the current structure and the
various intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion is estimated at 330/14 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple days as the depression
moves along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Consensus
track guidance, as well as the global and regional hurricane models,
are in general agreement during the early portion of the forecast
period. Early next week, the track forecast uncertainty increases
somewhat as the system will begin to interact with a deep-layer
trough. This trough interaction is expected to induce a more
poleward shift in the track and eventually recurve the system toward
the northeast after 96 hours. The NHC track forecast is in agreement
with the consensus aids, TVCN and HCCA, and slightly faster than
the prior forecast.

Environmental conditions remain favorable for intensification during
the next several days, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea
surface temperatures expected to persist along the forecast track.
The timing of intensification will depend on how quickly the system
is able to consolidate into a more compact structure. The current
intensity forecast assumes that it will take 24-36 hours for this to
happen, with the system expected to become a hurricane in 48 hours.
The current forecast reaches 95 kt by 72 h, although the regional
hurricane models HWRF and HAFS indicate that a major hurricane is
not out of the question. ECMWF-SHIPS guidance continues to indicate
the possibility of rapid intensification in the next 72 hours. By
mid-week, as the system recurves to the northeast, it is expected to
gradually weaken as southwesterly shear increases. The NHC forecast
is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is similar to both the
prior forecast and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 20.8N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 22.3N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 24.2N 49.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 25.6N 51.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 26.9N 52.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 28.3N 54.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 30.0N 56.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 34.6N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 39.6N 52.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 162034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 47.1W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 47.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system could become a hurricane by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 162034
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 47.1W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 47.1W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 46.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.3N 48.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.2N 49.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 25.6N 51.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.9N 52.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 28.3N 54.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.0N 56.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 34.6N 57.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 39.6N 52.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 47.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 161457
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

The tropical depression has not changed much this morning. The
center remains poorly defined, and visible satellite imagery
indicates a broad region of low- and mid-level rotation persisting
over a large area. Most of the deep convection is occurring in the
northern semicircle of the broad circulation. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from SAB and TAFB were 25 kt and 35 kt, respectively, and
are similar to the objective Dvorak estimates. Based on the
disorganized structure and the current intensity estimates, the
intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. A late arriving ASCAT
pass suggests that this estimate may be a bit generous.

Since the center of circulation is broad, the initial motion is
somewhat uncertain and estimated at 330/16 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple days as the depression
moves along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located to
the northeast of the system. Track guidance, including global and
regional hurricane models, is in general agreement that the system
will continue on a northwestward trajectory for the next several
days. After 72 hours, the track forecast uncertainty increases
somewhat as the system will begin to interact with a deep-layer
trough. This trough interaction is expected to induce a more
poleward shift in the track and eventually recurve the system toward
the northeast by 120 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
prior forecast and in agreement with the consensus aids, TVCN and
HCCA.

The system is currently in a favorable environment for
intensification, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface
temperatures expected to persist during the next several days.
However, the timing of intensification will depend on how quickly
the system is able to consolidate into a more compact structure. The
current intensity forecast assumes that it will take 24-36 hours for
this to happen, with the system expected to become a hurricane in 48
hours. The current forecast reaches 95 kt by 72 h, although some of
the regional hurricane models, including HWRF and HMON, indicate a
more rapid intensification. ECMWF-SHIPS guidance continues to
indicate a greater than a 40 percent chance of rapid intensification
in the next 72 hours. By mid-week, as the system recurves to the
northeast, it is expected to gradually weaken as southwesterly shear
increases. The NHC forecast is lower than the regional model
guidance and is similar to both the prior forecast and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 19.7N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 21.3N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 23.2N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 24.7N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 26.2N 52.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 27.5N 54.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 28.9N 56.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 32.8N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 37.0N 55.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 161455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 46.2W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 46.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30
km/h), and a general northwest or north-northwest motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the
system could become a hurricane early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 161454
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 46.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 46.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 45.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.3N 47.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.2N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.7N 50.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.2N 52.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.5N 54.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 28.9N 56.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 32.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 37.0N 55.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 46.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160857
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

Finding the exact center of the tropical depression this morning has
been a challenge. While there is a large region of mid-level
cyclonic rotation in the shortwave IR imagery, there isn't much
evidence that the low-level circulation has tightened up any from
the earlier ASCAT passes. This was confirmed by a 0501 UTC AMSR2
microwave pass which only had a subtle hint of banding with the
ongoing convection in the depression's northern semicircle.
Subjective Dvorak estimates were 25 kt and 35 kt from SAB and TAFB,
respectively. Objective intensity estimates were also in the 30-35
kt range. Given the continued broad structure, the intensity is held
at 30 kt for this advisory.

Given the current structure of the depression, its initial motion
has higher-than-normal uncertainty but is currently estimated at
330/12 kt. A general northwest to north-northwest motion is expected
to continue for the next day or two, as the system is steered
between a mid-level ridge centered to its northeast, and a
deep-layer trough, centered to its west. The track guidance in the
short-term has actually shifted a bit more poleward early on, and
the NHC track was nudged in that direction over the first 48 hours
or so. One interesting caveat to this track forecast is Margot,
which has weakened the overall magnitude of the ridge steering
TD15, and may explain the more poleward shift in the guidance
the last few cycles. Thereafter, as Margot moves out of the
picture, the mid-level ridge should briefly build back in, and
the guidance this cycle shows a subtle bend more northwestward
between 48-72 hours. However, another mid-latitude trough is
expected to move off the eastern U.S. coastline in about 4-5 days,
eroding this ridge enough to begin recurvature by the end of the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with
the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The intensity forecast early on is largely dependent on how TD15's
broad structure evolves, since environmentally vertical wind shear
is low, sea-surface temperatures are anomalously warm, and the
system is in a pocket of enhanced mid-level moisture. The
uncertainty of structural evolution is highlighted by the regional
hurricane models, which over the past few cycles have oscillated
between the system developing a small inner core versus a broader
structure that intensifies more slowly despite the favorable
environment. The latest intensity forecast assumes it will take a
day or so for the core to consolidate, only showing a slow rate of
intensification for the next 24 hours, which is on the low side of
the intensity guidance. However, assuming an inner core does form in
the 36-48 hour time frame, a period of rapid intensification is
possible, which is best highlighted by the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance
which shows a 45 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in intensity in
72 hours, more than eight times the climatological mean. This
possibility is shown in the NHC intensity forecast, which shows a
peak intensity of 95 kt in 72 hours. While not explicitly shown, it
still remains possible TD15 could become a major hurricane sometime
between the 72-96 hour forecast period, though some increase in
southwesterly shear and inner core fluctuations will likely result
in gradual weakening by the end of the forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast is somewhat higher than the consensus aids at peak
intensity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 17.9N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 19.6N 46.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 21.5N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 23.1N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 24.5N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 25.9N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 27.2N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 31.0N 58.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 35.5N 56.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160847
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 45.3W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 45.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and a general northwest or north-northwest motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
it could become a hurricane by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160846
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 45.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 45.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 45.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.6N 46.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 48.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.1N 49.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 51.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.9N 53.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 27.2N 55.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 31.0N 58.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 35.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 45.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160247
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

Deep convection has increased over the northern portion of the
depression's broad circulation this evening, however it is still
not particularly well organized. A recent ASCAT passed indicated
that the circulation is still broad and that the center may be
trying to reform farther north closer to the convection. The
scatterometer data revealed peak winds of 25-30 kt, and the initial
wind speed is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is a still somewhat uncertain 320/12 kt. A
deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic should steer the
depression northwestward through early next week. By late
Tuesday, a mid-latitude trough moving westward over the western
Atlantic is expected to cause the cyclone to turn north-
northwestward and northward near the end of the forecast period.
The track guidance is in relatively good agreement on this
scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

Given the current structure of the system, only gradual
strengthening is likely overnight. Once an inner core become
established a faster rate of strengthening seems likely as the
system traverses warm waters and remains in a low vertical wind
shear conditions. Steady to potentially rapid strengthening is
predicted later this weekend, and the system is forecast to become
a hurricane by late Sunday or Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is
near the higher-end of the guidance, close to the HCCA model
through 72 hours, and is then near the higher dynamical guidance at
96 h. By late in the period, increasing southwesterly vertical wind
shear is likely to cause some gradual weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 16.3N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 17.9N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 20.1N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 21.7N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 23.3N 50.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 24.7N 52.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 26.0N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 29.3N 57.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 34.1N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160246
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 44.7W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 44.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday and
it could become a hurricane by late this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160245
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 44.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 45.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.1N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.3N 50.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.7N 52.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.0N 54.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 29.3N 57.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 34.1N 58.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 152037
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

The depression has lost some convective organization since this
morning, but the low-level circulation appears to be better defined
in recent visible satellite imagery. There are a couple of bursts of
convection just north of the center, but there is a lack of overall
banding at this time. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, which
is in agreement with the latest Dvorak Data T-number from TAFB.

The center appears to have reformed to the north since this
morning, which had lead to a rather uncertain initial motion
estimate of 320/11 kt. The global model guidance suggests that
there could be some additional center reformations during the next
12-24 hours until an inner-core becomes better established. The
early portion of the track forecast was shifted northward, based on
the farther north initial position. A deep-layer ridge over the
central Atlantic is expected to steer the system northwestward
during the next several days. By day 4, a mid-latitude trough
moving over the western Atlantic should allow the cyclone to turn
north-northwestward near the end of the period. The 12Z dynamical
model guidance made a noticeable eastward shift, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The updated track
forecast is close to the consensus aids through 72 hours, but is
along the left side of the model envelope at days 4 and 5.

The depression is likely to only gradually intensify during the
next 12 hours or so as it is still in the formative stage and lacks
inner-core structure. After that time, a faster rate of
intensification is indicated in the official forecast while the
system remains in an environment of low vertical wind shear and it
traverses warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance
is somewhat lower this cycle, but the NHC forecast remains generally
the same as before. This is near the upper-end of the latest
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.4N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 16.7N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 18.5N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 20.4N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 22.0N 50.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 23.6N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 25.1N 53.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 28.0N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 32.0N 59.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 152036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 44.0W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 44.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a
faster rate of intensification is predicted later this weekend and
early next week. The depression is forecast to become a tropical
storm on Saturday and could become a hurricane late this weekend or
early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 152036
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 44.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 44.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 43.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N 45.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N 46.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 48.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.0N 50.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.6N 51.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.1N 53.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 28.0N 57.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 32.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 44.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 151458
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

1-min GOES-East visible imagery indicates improved organization of
Invest 97, with a well-defined surface center forming since
sunrise, along with large curved banding features. Thus the system
is designated as a tropical depression, and the initial intensity
is set to 30 kt, in closest agreement with the TAFB Dvorak
classification.

Our estimate of initial motion is northwestward at 10 kt, though
this is uncertain due to the recent center formation. A
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should be the dominant
steering mechanism during the next several days, sending the system
on a steady northwestward track. For a first forecast, guidance is
in remarkably good agreement, and the official forecast lies near
or west of the model consensus. Despite the good model agreement,
there is still some long-range uncertainty in how far west this
system moves, which partially depends on the strength of the
subtropical ridge in the wake of Tropical Storm Margot.

The depression is forecast to gradually intensify over the next
couple of days as moderate northeasterly shear and the initial broad
cyclone structure could provide a check on the intensification
rate. By early next week, this system is forecast to move over
near record warm sea-surface temperatures for the region in light
shear conditions. It probably sounds like a broken record at this
point in the season, but rapid intensification is a significant
possibility, and the official forecast could be conservative below.
The intensity forecast is near or above the intensity consensus,
only leveling off at 120 hours due to gradual SST cooling and the
possibility of eyewall replacement cycles, as suggested by the HAFS
model suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.4N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.5N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.2N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 18.9N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 20.5N 49.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 22.0N 51.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 23.4N 52.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 26.0N 56.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 29.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Churchill/Blake/Lamers

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 43.8W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 43.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm late today and could become a hurricane
late this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Churchill/Blake/Lamers

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 151453
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 43.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 43.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 44.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.2N 46.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 47.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 49.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 51.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.4N 52.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.0N 56.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 43.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CHURCHILL/BLAKE/LAMERS

>