Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NANMADOL-22 in Japan from 12 Sep 2022 18:00 UTC to 19 Sep 2022 18:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 200000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 31
NAME LOW FROM 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 200000UTC 39.8N 142.6E
MOVEMENT NE 43KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 39N 143E
MOVE ENE 40KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHWEST 400NM NORTHEAST =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 39N 143E
MOVE ENE 40KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHWEST 400NM NORTHEAST =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 38.6N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE ENE 40KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM NORTHWEST 350NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 200900UTC 42.5N 148.7E 45NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 202100UTC 48.9N 162.8E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

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Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 38.6N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE ENE 40KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM NORTHWEST 350NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 48.9N 162.8E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 192100
WARNING 192100.
WARNING VALID 202100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 985 HPA
AT 38.6N 140.7E HONSHU MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 40 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 350
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 42.5N 148.7E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 48.9N 162.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 37.4N 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.4N 137.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.0N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 41.5N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 37.8N 138.3E.
19SEP22. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
263 NM SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 191852Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITH
A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABSORBED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL BAND, WHICH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER CENTRAL HONSHU AND
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN HONSHU AND HOKKAIDO. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 191700Z RJTD RADAR FIX AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM WAJIMA (37.4N 136.9E). AS THE SYSTEM CENTER TRACKED
OVER WAJIMA, THE WINDS SWITCHED FROM SOUTHERLY AT 16 KNOTS AT 191600Z
TO NORTHERLY AT 37 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 987.2MB. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT ASCAT DATA, WHICH
SHOWED A SMALL PATCH OF 50 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT IS HEDGED ABOVE AN RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS). TS 16W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR
THE JET AND IS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS A COLD-CORE, EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH
TAU 24 WITH STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40-60
KNOTS) AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH MANY MODELS INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET.//
NNNN

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Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 37.7N, 138.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT03. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 191800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 30
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 191800UTC 37.5N 138.3E
MOVEMENT ENE 39KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 200600UTC 41.5N 147.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 37.7N 138.6E GOOD
MOVE ENE 32KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM NORTHWEST 350NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 200600UTC 42.4N 148.1E 45NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 201800UTC 48.7N 162.2E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

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Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 37.7N 138.6E GOOD
MOVE ENE 32KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM NORTHWEST 350NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 48.7N 162.2E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 985 HPA
AT 37.7N 138.6E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 32 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 350
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 42.4N 148.1E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 48.7N 162.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 37.0N 135.8E GOOD
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 400NM NORTHWEST 350NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 200300UTC 41.0N 144.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE NE 60KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 201500UTC 48.3N 159.4E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 191500
WARNING 191500.
WARNING VALID 201500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 980 HPA
AT 37.0N 135.8E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 350
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 41.0N 144.9E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 48.3N 159.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 37.0N 135.8E GOOD
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 400NM NORTHWEST 350NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 48.3N 159.4E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 36.1N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.1N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.5N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 40.4N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 36.7N 135.8E.
19SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM NORTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 36.1N, 134.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
NOAA-19/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT12. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT06 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT18. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 191200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 191200UTC 36.0N 134.8E
MOVEMENT ENE 18KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 191800UTC 37.3N 137.6E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
12HR
POSITION 200000UTC 38.8N 141.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 200600UTC 40.5N 145.0E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 36.1N 134.6E GOOD
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 200000UTC 39.2N 141.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE NE 37KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 201200UTC 46.7N 155.9E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 36.1N 134.6E GOOD
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 46.7N 155.9E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 980 HPA
AT 36.1N 134.6E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 39.2N 141.7E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 46.7N 155.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190900UTC 35.7N 133.7E
MOVEMENT ENE 24KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 191500UTC 36.7N 136.4E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
12HR
POSITION 192100UTC 37.9N 139.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
18HR
POSITION 200300UTC 39.3N 142.6E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 35.5N 133.2E GOOD
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 192100UTC 38.2N 139.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 33KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 200900UTC 44.0N 150.6E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 190900
WARNING 190900.
WARNING VALID 200900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 980 HPA
AT 35.5N 133.2E HONSHU MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 38.2N 139.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 44.0N 150.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 35.5N 133.2E GOOD
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 44.0N 150.6E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 34.8N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.8N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 37.1N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.6N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 41.9N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 35.4N 133.6E.
19SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 33
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z,
200300Z AND 200900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 35.3N, 132.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LAND, DRY AIR AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190600UTC 35.2N 132.3E
MOVEMENT NE 18KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 191200UTC 36.0N 134.5E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
12HR
POSITION 191800UTC 37.0N 137.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
18HR
POSITION 200000UTC 38.2N 140.2E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 200600UTC 39.6N 143.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 35.3N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 191800UTC 37.3N 138.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 200600UTC 42.1N 147.4E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 35.3N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 42.1N 147.4E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 975 HPA
AT 35.3N 132.4E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 37.3N 138.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 42.1N 147.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190300UTC 34.4N 131.3E
MOVEMENT NE 11KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 190600UTC 34.9N 132.1E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
06HR
POSITION 190900UTC 35.4N 133.1E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
12HR
POSITION 191500UTC 36.4N 135.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
18HR
POSITION 192100UTC 37.4N 138.5E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 200300UTC 38.9N 142.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 34.4N 131.6E GOOD
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 140NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 191500UTC 36.6N 135.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 26KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 200300UTC 39.6N 143.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 34KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 210000UTC 45.5N 156.7E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 190300
WARNING 190300.
WARNING VALID 200300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 131.6E HONSHU MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 36.6N 135.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 39.6N 143.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 34.4N 131.6E GOOD
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 140NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 39.6N 143.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 34KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 210000UTC 45.5N 156.7E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 026
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 16W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 34.1N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 35.8N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.1N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 41.0N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 131.9E.
19SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NANMADOL IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 33.9N, 130.8E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND, DRY AIR AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190000UTC 34.0N 130.8E
MOVEMENT NNE 9KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 190300UTC 34.7N 131.4E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
06HR
POSITION 190600UTC 35.2N 132.1E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
12HR
POSITION 191200UTC 35.9N 133.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
18HR
POSITION 191800UTC 36.6N 136.6E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 200000UTC 37.7N 139.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
30HR
POSITION 200600UTC 39.1N 142.4E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 33.9N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 191200UTC 36.1N 134.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 200000UTC 38.6N 141.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 210000UTC 45.5N 156.7E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 33.9N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 38.6N 141.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 210000UTC 45.5N 156.7E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
975 HPA
AT 33.9N 130.8E KYUSYU MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 36.1N 134.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 38.6N 141.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 45.5N 156.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 182100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 182100UTC 33.6N 130.5E
MOVEMENT NNE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 190300UTC 34.6N 131.3E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
12HR
POSITION 190900UTC 35.6N 132.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
18HR
POSITION 191500UTC 36.2N 135.0E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 192100UTC 37.1N 138.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
30HR
POSITION 200300UTC 38.4N 140.9E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 200900UTC 39.8N 143.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 33.6N 130.6E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 190900UTC 35.6N 132.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 192100UTC 37.6N 138.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 25KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 201800UTC 42.4N 149.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 182100
WARNING 182100.
WARNING VALID 192100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 970 HPA
AT 33.6N 130.6E KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 35.6N 132.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 37.6N 138.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 33.6N 130.6E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 37.6N 138.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 25KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 201800UTC 42.4N 149.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 33.1N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.1N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 35.1N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 36.6N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 38.8N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 41.6N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 131.0E.
18SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 33.2N, 130.4E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
960HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW TCHP, LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 181800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 181800UTC 33.2N 130.4E
MOVEMENT N 12KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 190000UTC 34.1N 130.8E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
12HR
POSITION 190600UTC 35.0N 131.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
18HR
POSITION 191200UTC 35.7N 133.6E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 191800UTC 36.5N 136.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
30HR
POSITION 200000UTC 37.3N 139.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 200600UTC 38.7N 142.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
42HR
POSITION 201200UTC 40.7N 145.6E WITHIN 85NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 33.2N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 190600UTC 35.1N 131.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 191800UTC 36.4N 135.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 201800UTC 42.4N 149.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 33.2N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 36.4N 135.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 201800UTC 42.4N 149.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 960 HPA
AT 33.2N 130.4E KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 35.1N 131.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 36.4N 135.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 42.4N 149.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 181500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 181500UTC 32.6N 130.4E
MOVEMENT N 14KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 182100UTC 33.4N 130.4E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
12HR
POSITION 190300UTC 34.3N 131.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
18HR
POSITION 190900UTC 35.0N 132.7E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 191500UTC 35.6N 134.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
30HR
POSITION 192100UTC 36.5N 137.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 200300UTC 37.9N 140.6E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
42HR
POSITION 200900UTC 39.5N 143.7E WITHIN 85NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 201500UTC 41.4N 147.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 32.7N 130.5E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 190300UTC 34.5N 131.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 191500UTC 36.4N 134.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 201200UTC 41.6N 146.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 181500
WARNING 181500.
WARNING VALID 191500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 955 HPA
AT 32.7N 130.5E KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 34.5N 131.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 36.4N 134.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 32.7N 130.5E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 36.4N 134.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 201200UTC 41.6N 146.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 31.9N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 33.6N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 35.2N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 36.9N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 39.2N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 42.4N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 130.7E.
18SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z,
190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 31.9N, 130.5E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 181200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 181200UTC 31.9N 130.5E
MOVEMENT N 12KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 181800UTC 32.8N 130.2E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
12HR
POSITION 190000UTC 33.6N 130.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
18HR
POSITION 190600UTC 34.4N 131.5E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 191200UTC 35.1N 133.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
30HR
POSITION 191800UTC 36.0N 135.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 200000UTC 37.0N 138.6E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
42HR
POSITION 200600UTC 38.4N 141.6E WITHIN 85NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 201200UTC 40.5N 145.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 31.9N 130.5E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 190000UTC 34.0N 131.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 191200UTC 35.9N 133.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 201200UTC 41.6N 146.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 31.9N 130.5E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 35.9N 133.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 201200UTC 41.6N 146.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 940 HPA
AT 31.9N 130.5E KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 34.0N 131.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 35.9N 133.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 41.6N 146.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 180900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180900UTC 31.3N 130.6E
MOVEMENT N 12KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 181500UTC 32.4N 130.2E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
12HR
POSITION 182100UTC 33.2N 130.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
18HR
POSITION 190300UTC 34.0N 130.9E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 190900UTC 34.7N 132.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
30HR
POSITION 191500UTC 35.5N 134.4E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 192100UTC 36.5N 137.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
42HR
POSITION 200300UTC 37.6N 140.1E WITHIN 85NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 200900UTC 39.6N 143.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
60HR
POSITION 202100UTC 43.4N 150.8E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 31.3N 130.6E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 182100UTC 33.5N 130.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 190900UTC 35.1N 132.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 200600UTC 40.2N 143.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 27KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 210600UTC 47.5N 159.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 31.3N 130.6E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 35.1N 132.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 200600UTC 40.2N 143.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 27KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 210600UTC 47.5N 159.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 180900
WARNING 180900.
WARNING VALID 190900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 935 HPA
AT 31.3N 130.6E KYUSYU MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 33.5N 130.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 35.1N 132.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 30.7N 130.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 130.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 32.5N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 34.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 37.9N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 42.0N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 130.6E.
18SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z,
190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 30.7N, 130.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
930HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE
WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 180600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180600UTC 30.7N 130.6E
MOVEMENT N 10KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 181200UTC 31.7N 130.2E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
12HR
POSITION 181800UTC 32.7N 130.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
18HR
POSITION 190000UTC 33.7N 130.5E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 190600UTC 34.3N 131.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
30HR
POSITION 191200UTC 35.1N 133.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 191800UTC 36.0N 135.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
42HR
POSITION 200000UTC 37.0N 138.8E WITHIN 85NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 200600UTC 38.6N 142.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
60HR
POSITION 201800UTC 42.6N 149.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 30.7N 130.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 181800UTC 32.9N 130.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 190600UTC 34.8N 131.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 200600UTC 40.2N 143.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 27KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 210600UTC 47.5N 159.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 30.7N 130.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 34.8N 131.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 200600UTC 40.2N 143.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 27KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 210600UTC 47.5N 159.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 180600
WARNING 180600.
WARNING VALID 190600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 930 HPA
AT 30.7N 130.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 32.9N 130.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 34.8N 131.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 40.2N 143.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 47.5N 159.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 30.3N 130.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 181500UTC 32.4N 130.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 190300UTC 34.1N 130.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 200000UTC 37.8N 138.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 210000UTC 44.7N 152.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 180300
WARNING 180300.
WARNING VALID 190300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 930 HPA
AT 30.3N 130.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 32.4N 130.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 34.1N 130.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 30.3N 130.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 34.1N 130.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 200000UTC 37.8N 138.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 210000UTC 44.7N 152.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TTYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 29.7N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 131.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.8N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 33.7N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.7N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 36.1N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 39.4N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 44.2N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 130.8E.
18SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 29.7N, 131E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW
TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 180000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180000UTC 29.7N 131.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 180600UTC 30.6N 130.5E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
12HR
POSITION 181200UTC 31.7N 130.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
18HR
POSITION 181800UTC 32.7N 130.0E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 190000UTC 33.6N 130.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
30HR
POSITION 190600UTC 34.3N 131.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 191200UTC 35.1N 133.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
42HR
POSITION 191800UTC 36.1N 135.7E WITHIN 85NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 200000UTC 37.3N 138.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
60HR
POSITION 201200UTC 40.3N 145.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 29.7N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 181200UTC 32.0N 130.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 190000UTC 33.7N 130.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 200000UTC 37.8N 138.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 210000UTC 44.7N 152.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 29.7N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 33.7N 130.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 200000UTC 37.8N 138.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 210000UTC 44.7N 152.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 180000
WARNING 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 925 HPA
AT 29.7N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.0N 130.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 33.7N 130.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 37.8N 138.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 44.7N 152.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 29.0N 131.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 180900UTC 31.3N 130.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 182100UTC 33.2N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 191800UTC 36.1N 135.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 201800UTC 41.9N 148.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 172100
WARNING 172100.
WARNING VALID 182100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 925 HPA
AT 29.0N 131.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 31.3N 130.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 33.2N 130.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 29.0N 131.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 33.2N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 191800UTC 36.1N 135.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 201800UTC 41.9N 148.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 28.5N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.5N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 32.5N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 34.1N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.0N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 37.9N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 41.8N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 131.2E.
17SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 28.5N, 131.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 171800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171800UTC 28.5N 131.4E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 180600UTC 30.7N 130.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 181800UTC 32.7N 129.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 190600UTC 34.4N 131.5E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 191800UTC 36.1N 136.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 201800UTC 41.3N 147.6E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 28.5N 131.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 180600UTC 30.7N 130.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 181800UTC 32.8N 129.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 191800UTC 36.1N 135.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 201800UTC 41.9N 148.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 28.5N 131.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 32.8N 129.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 191800UTC 36.1N 135.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 201800UTC 41.9N 148.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 920 HPA
AT 28.5N 131.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 30.7N 130.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 32.8N 129.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 36.1N 135.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 41.9N 148.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 171500
WARNING 171500.
WARNING VALID 181500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 910 HPA
AT 27.9N 131.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 30.2N 130.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 32.4N 129.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 27.9N 131.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 180300UTC 30.2N 130.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 181500UTC 32.4N 129.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 191200UTC 35.6N 133.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 201200UTC 40.5N 144.6E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 27.9N 131.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 32.4N 129.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 191200UTC 35.6N 133.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 201200UTC 40.5N 144.6E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 16W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 27.6N 132.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 132.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 29.5N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.3N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 33.1N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.9N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 38.1N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 40.7N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 131.8E.
17SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z,
180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 132E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. NOAA-19/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 171200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171200UTC 27.5N 132.0E
MOVEMENT NW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 180000UTC 29.5N 130.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
24HR
POSITION 181200UTC 31.8N 129.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
36HR
POSITION 190000UTC 33.4N 129.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 191200UTC 35.0N 133.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 201200UTC 40.1N 145.0E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 27.5N 132.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 180000UTC 29.7N 130.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 181200UTC 31.9N 129.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 191200UTC 35.6N 133.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 201200UTC 40.5N 144.6E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 27.5N 132.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 31.9N 129.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 191200UTC 35.6N 133.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 201200UTC 40.5N 144.6E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 910 HPA
AT 27.5N 132.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 29.7N 130.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 31.9N 129.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 35.6N 133.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 40.5N 144.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 27.1N 132.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 172100UTC 29.1N 131.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 180900UTC 31.5N 130.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 190600UTC 34.5N 131.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 200600UTC 39.0N 141.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 210600UTC 45.4N 158.3E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 170900
WARNING 170900.
WARNING VALID 180900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 910 HPA
AT 27.1N 132.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 29.1N 131.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 31.5N 130.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 27.1N 132.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 31.5N 130.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 190600UTC 34.5N 131.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 200600UTC 39.0N 141.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 26.7N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.3N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.1N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 32.2N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 33.8N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 36.0N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 39.0N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 41.6N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 132.1E.
17SEP22. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM EAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z
IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND
180900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170600UTC 26.7N 132.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 171800UTC 28.2N 130.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
24HR
POSITION 180600UTC 30.3N 129.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 181800UTC 32.8N 129.6E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
48HR
POSITION 190600UTC 34.0N 131.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 200600UTC 38.0N 140.0E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 210600UTC 42.5N 150.3E WITHIN 150NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 26.7N, 132.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 26.7N 132.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 171800UTC 28.6N 131.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 180600UTC 31.0N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 190600UTC 34.5N 131.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 200600UTC 39.0N 141.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 210600UTC 45.4N 158.3E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 26.7N 132.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 31.0N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 190600UTC 34.5N 131.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 200600UTC 39.0N 141.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 910 HPA
AT 26.7N 132.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 28.6N 131.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 31.0N 130.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 34.5N 131.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 39.0N 141.9E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 45.4N 158.3E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 170300
WARNING 170300.
WARNING VALID 180300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 910 HPA
AT 26.4N 132.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 28.2N 131.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 30.4N 130.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 26.4N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 171500UTC 28.2N 131.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 180300UTC 30.4N 130.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 190000UTC 33.4N 130.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 200000UTC 36.1N 137.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 210000UTC 43.6N 152.0E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 26.4N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 30.4N 130.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 190000UTC 33.4N 130.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 200000UTC 36.1N 137.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 26.0N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.5N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 29.2N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.1N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 32.5N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 34.9N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 37.4N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 41.2N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 132.7E.
17SEP22. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287
NM EAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 26N, 133.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170000UTC 26.0N 133.1E
MOVEMENT NW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 171200UTC 27.4N 131.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
24HR
POSITION 180000UTC 29.4N 130.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 181200UTC 31.3N 129.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
48HR
POSITION 190000UTC 33.2N 130.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 200000UTC 36.9N 137.4E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
96HR
POSITION 210000UTC 42.5N 148.6E WITHIN 150NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 26.0N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 171200UTC 27.7N 131.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 180000UTC 29.8N 130.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 190000UTC 33.4N 130.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 200000UTC 36.1N 137.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 210000UTC 43.6N 152.0E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 26.0N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 29.8N 130.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 190000UTC 33.4N 130.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 200000UTC 36.1N 137.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 910 HPA
AT 26.0N 133.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 27.7N 131.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 29.8N 130.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 33.4N 130.1E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 36.1N 137.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 43.6N 152.0E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 25.7N 133.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 170900UTC 27.4N 131.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 172100UTC 29.2N 130.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 181800UTC 33.0N 129.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 191800UTC 36.0N 135.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 201800UTC 41.8N 147.4E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 25.7N 133.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 29.2N 130.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 181800UTC 33.0N 129.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 191800UTC 36.0N 135.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 162100
WARNING 162100.
WARNING VALID 172100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 910 HPA
AT 25.7N 133.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 27.4N 131.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 29.2N 130.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 25.5N 133.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 133.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.9N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.6N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.5N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 32.4N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.1N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 37.5N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 41.1N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 133.4E.
16SEP22. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329
NM EAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 25.5N, 133.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161800UTC 25.5N 133.7E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 170600UTC 27.0N 131.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
24HR
POSITION 171800UTC 28.6N 130.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
36HR
POSITION 180600UTC 30.6N 129.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 181800UTC 32.8N 129.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 191800UTC 36.0N 135.3E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 201800UTC 41.9N 146.6E WITHIN 150NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 25.5N 133.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 170600UTC 27.0N 132.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 171800UTC 28.8N 131.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 181800UTC 33.0N 129.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 191800UTC 36.0N 135.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 201800UTC 41.8N 147.4E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 25.5N 133.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 28.8N 131.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 181800UTC 33.0N 129.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 191800UTC 36.0N 135.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 910 HPA
AT 25.5N 133.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 27.0N 132.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 28.8N 131.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 33.0N 129.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 36.0N 135.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 41.8N 147.4E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 925 HPA
AT 25.2N 134.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 26.7N 132.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 28.5N 131.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 25.2N 134.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 170300UTC 26.7N 132.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 171500UTC 28.5N 131.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 181200UTC 32.6N 129.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 191200UTC 35.8N 134.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 201200UTC 40.7N 145.2E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 25.2N 134.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 28.5N 131.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 181200UTC 32.6N 129.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 191200UTC 35.8N 134.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 134.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2214 NANMADOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161200UTC 24.9N 134.7E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 170000UTC 26.2N 132.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 171200UTC 27.9N 131.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 180000UTC 29.6N 130.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 181200UTC 32.4N 129.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
72HR
POSITION 191200UTC 35.9N 134.1E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 201200UTC 41.0N 144.5E WITHIN 150NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 24.9N 134.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 170000UTC 26.3N 132.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 171200UTC 27.9N 131.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 181200UTC 32.6N 129.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 191200UTC 35.8N 134.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 201200UTC 40.7N 145.2E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 24.9N 134.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 27.9N 131.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 181200UTC 32.6N 129.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 191200UTC 35.8N 134.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 925 HPA
AT 24.9N 134.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 26.3N 132.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 27.9N 131.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.6N 129.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 35.8N 134.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 40.7N 145.2E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 160900
WARNING 160900.
WARNING VALID 170900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 945 HPA
AT 24.5N 135.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 27.6N 131.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 24.5N 135.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 27.6N 131.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 180600UTC 31.5N 129.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 190600UTC 34.9N 131.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 200600UTC 39.2N 138.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 210600UTC 45.9N 150.1E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 24.5N 135.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 27.6N 131.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 180600UTC 31.5N 129.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 190600UTC 34.9N 131.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 135.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 135.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.5N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.9N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.7N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 33.6N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 36.6N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 40.1N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5N 134.9E.
16SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z
AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 24.2N, 135.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 24.2N 135.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 27.2N 132.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 180600UTC 31.5N 129.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 190600UTC 34.9N 131.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 200600UTC 39.2N 138.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 210600UTC 45.9N 150.1E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 24.2N 135.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 27.2N 132.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 180600UTC 31.5N 129.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 190600UTC 34.9N 131.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 950 HPA
AT 24.2N 135.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 27.2N 132.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 31.5N 129.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 34.9N 131.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 39.2N 138.2E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 45.9N 150.1E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 23.9N 135.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 27.0N 132.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 180000UTC 30.2N 130.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 190000UTC 34.2N 130.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 200000UTC 37.9N 136.2E 230NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 210000UTC 44.1N 146.4E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 160300
WARNING 160300.
WARNING VALID 170300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 950 HPA
AT 23.9N 135.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 27.0N 132.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 23.9N 135.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 27.0N 132.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 180000UTC 30.2N 130.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 190000UTC 34.2N 130.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 135.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 135.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.9N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.3N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.8N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 29.6N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 33.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 34.9N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 37.8N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 135.4E.
16SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND
170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 23.7N, 136E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 23.7N 136.0E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 26.6N 132.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 180000UTC 30.2N 130.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 190000UTC 34.2N 130.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 200000UTC 37.9N 136.2E 230NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 210000UTC 44.1N 146.4E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 23.7N 136.0E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 26.6N 132.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 180000UTC 30.2N 130.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 190000UTC 34.2N 130.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 950 HPA
AT 23.7N 136.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 26.6N 132.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 30.2N 130.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 34.2N 130.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 37.9N 136.2E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 44.1N 146.4E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 152100
WARNING 152100.
WARNING VALID 162100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 960 HPA
AT 23.5N 136.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 26.3N 133.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 23.5N 136.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 26.3N 133.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 171800UTC 29.0N 130.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 181800UTC 33.2N 129.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 191800UTC 37.3N 136.5E 230NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 201800UTC 44.3N 148.4E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 23.5N 136.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 26.3N 133.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 171800UTC 29.0N 130.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 181800UTC 33.2N 129.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 23.4N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.3N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.5N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.9N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.5N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 32.0N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 34.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 36.4N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 136.0E.
15SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 503 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 136.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP
AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 23.4N 136.4E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 25.9N 133.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 171800UTC 29.0N 130.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 181800UTC 33.2N 129.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 191800UTC 37.3N 136.5E 230NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 201800UTC 44.3N 148.4E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 23.4N 136.4E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 25.9N 133.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 171800UTC 29.0N 130.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 181800UTC 33.2N 129.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 965 HPA
AT 23.4N 136.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 25.9N 133.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 29.0N 130.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 33.2N 129.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 37.3N 136.5E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 44.3N 148.4E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 23.4N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 25.5N 133.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 171200UTC 28.0N 131.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 181200UTC 31.9N 129.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 191200UTC 36.1N 134.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 201200UTC 42.6N 144.2E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 151500
WARNING 151500.
WARNING VALID 161500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 970 HPA
AT 23.4N 136.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 25.5N 133.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 23.4N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 25.5N 133.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 171200UTC 28.0N 131.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 181200UTC 31.9N 129.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 23.4N 137.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 137.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.1N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 25.1N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.9N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.4N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.9N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 38.4N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 136.9E.
15SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 549 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z,
160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 137.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 23.4N 137.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 25.2N 134.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 171200UTC 28.0N 131.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 181200UTC 31.9N 129.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 191200UTC 36.1N 134.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 201200UTC 42.6N 144.2E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2214 NANMADOL (2214) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 23.4N 137.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 25.2N 134.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 171200UTC 28.0N 131.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 181200UTC 31.9N 129.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2214 NANMADOL (2214) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 23.4N 137.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 25.2N 134.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 28.0N 131.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 31.9N 129.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 36.1N 134.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 42.6N 144.2E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 150900
WARNING 150900.
WARNING VALID 160900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 975 HPA
AT 23.3N 137.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 25.0N 134.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 23.3N 137.6E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 25.0N 134.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 170600UTC 27.5N 131.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 180600UTC 31.4N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 190600UTC 35.4N 132.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 200600UTC 42.7N 144.3E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 23.3N 137.6E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 25.0N 134.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 170600UTC 27.5N 131.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 180600UTC 31.4N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 23.5N 137.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 137.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.0N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.8N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.0N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.3N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.5N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 33.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 37.6N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 137.5E.
15SEP22. TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 578 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 23.3N, 137.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 23.3N 137.9E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 24.7N 134.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 170600UTC 27.5N 131.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 180600UTC 31.4N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 190600UTC 35.4N 132.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 200600UTC 42.7N 144.3E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 23.3N 137.9E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 24.7N 134.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 170600UTC 27.5N 131.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 180600UTC 31.4N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 975 HPA
AT 23.3N 137.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 24.7N 134.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 27.5N 131.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 31.4N 129.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 35.4N 132.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 42.7N 144.3E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 150300
WARNING 150300.
WARNING VALID 160300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 980 HPA
AT 23.3N 138.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 24.6N 134.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 23.3N 138.5E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 24.6N 134.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 170000UTC 26.7N 132.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 180000UTC 30.0N 129.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 190000UTC 34.3N 131.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 200000UTC 40.1N 141.3E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 23.3N 138.5E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 24.6N 134.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 170000UTC 26.7N 132.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 180000UTC 30.0N 129.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 23.3N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.7N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.3N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 25.2N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.6N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 29.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 32.0N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 36.2N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 138.3E.
15SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 23.3N, 139.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 23.3N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 24.3N 135.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 170000UTC 26.7N 132.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 180000UTC 30.0N 129.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 190000UTC 34.3N 131.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 200000UTC 40.1N 141.3E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 23.3N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 24.3N 135.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 170000UTC 26.7N 132.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 180000UTC 30.0N 129.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 980 HPA
AT 23.3N 139.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 24.3N 135.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 26.7N 132.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 30.0N 129.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 34.3N 131.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 40.1N 141.3E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 142100
WARNING 142100.
WARNING VALID 152100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 985 HPA
AT 23.1N 139.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 24.0N 135.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 23.1N 139.5E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 24.0N 135.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 161800UTC 25.9N 132.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171800UTC 29.1N 130.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 181800UTC 33.3N 130.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 191800UTC 37.4N 137.8E 320NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 23.1N 139.5E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 24.0N 135.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 161800UTC 25.9N 132.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171800UTC 29.1N 130.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 23.1N 139.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 139.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.5N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.9N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.6N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.7N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.8N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 32.2N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 34.9N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 139.4E.
14SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131
NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 23.1N, 139.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP,
INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 23.1N 139.7E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 24.1N 135.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 161800UTC 25.9N 132.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171800UTC 29.1N 130.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 181800UTC 33.3N 130.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 191800UTC 37.4N 137.8E 320NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2214 NANMADOL (2214) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 23.1N 139.7E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 24.1N 135.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 161800UTC 25.9N 132.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171800UTC 29.1N 130.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 985 HPA
AT 23.1N 139.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 24.1N 135.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 25.9N 132.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 29.1N 130.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 33.3N 130.8E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 37.4N 137.8E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 990 HPA
AT 23.2N 140.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 23.9N 136.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 23.2N 140.2E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 23.9N 136.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 25.3N 133.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 171200UTC 28.1N 130.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 181200UTC 31.9N 129.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 191200UTC 36.4N 135.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 23.2N 140.2E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 23.9N 136.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 25.3N 133.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 171200UTC 28.1N 130.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 22.9N 140.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 140.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.2N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.5N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.1N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 25.1N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.9N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 33.7N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 140.1E.
14SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z
AND 151500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 23.3N, 140.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP,
INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 23.3N 140.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 24.0N 136.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161200UTC 25.3N 133.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 171200UTC 28.1N 130.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 181200UTC 31.9N 129.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 191200UTC 36.4N 135.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 23.3N 140.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 24.0N 136.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161200UTC 25.3N 133.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 171200UTC 28.1N 130.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 990 HPA
AT 23.3N 140.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 24.0N 136.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 25.3N 133.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 28.1N 130.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 31.9N 129.6E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 36.4N 135.2E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 994 HPA
AT 23.3N 140.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 23.9N 137.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 23.3N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 23.9N 137.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 24.7N 134.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 170600UTC 27.4N 131.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 180600UTC 31.1N 129.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 190600UTC 33.9N 132.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 23.3N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 23.9N 137.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 24.7N 134.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 170600UTC 27.4N 131.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 22.9N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.3N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.7N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.1N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.9N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.2N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.7N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 33.2N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 140.3E.
14SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z
AND 150900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 23.3N, 140.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 23.3N 140.7E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 24.0N 137.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 24.7N 134.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 170600UTC 27.4N 131.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 180600UTC 31.1N 129.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 190600UTC 33.9N 132.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 23.3N 140.7E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 24.0N 137.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 24.7N 134.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 170600UTC 27.4N 131.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 994 HPA
AT 23.3N 140.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 24.0N 137.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 24.7N 134.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 27.4N 131.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 31.1N 129.8E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 33.9N 132.1E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 22.9N 140.6E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 23.8N 137.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 160000UTC 24.3N 134.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 170000UTC 26.5N 131.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 180000UTC 29.3N 129.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 190000UTC 32.3N 128.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 22.9N 140.6E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 23.8N 137.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 160000UTC 24.3N 134.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 170000UTC 26.5N 131.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 22.5N, 140.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 140.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.2N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.5N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.9N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.3N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.1N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 32.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 140.3E.
14SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 22.5N 140.6E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 23.6N 138.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 160000UTC 24.3N 134.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 170000UTC 26.5N 131.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 180000UTC 29.3N 129.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 190000UTC 32.3N 128.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 22.5N 140.6E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 23.6N 138.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 160000UTC 24.3N 134.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 170000UTC 26.5N 131.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) 996 HPA
AT 22.5N 140.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 23.6N 138.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 24.3N 134.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 26.5N 131.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 29.3N 129.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 32.3N 128.3E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 22.5N 140.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 23.7N 138.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151800UTC 24.4N 135.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 161800UTC 26.0N 132.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 171800UTC 28.5N 129.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 181800UTC 31.5N 128.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 22.5N 140.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 23.7N 138.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151800UTC 24.4N 135.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 161800UTC 26.0N 132.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 22.5N 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.1N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.8N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.4N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 140.2E.
13SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 22.2N, 139.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(NANMADOL) STATUS. TS NANMADOL IS LOCATED AT 22.4N, 140.1E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND
THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 22.4N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 23.7N 139.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151800UTC 24.4N 135.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 161800UTC 26.0N 132.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 171800UTC 28.5N 129.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 181800UTC 31.5N 128.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2214 NANMADOL (2214) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 22.4N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 23.7N 139.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151800UTC 24.4N 135.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 161800UTC 26.0N 132.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2214 NANMADOL (2214) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA
AT 22.4N 140.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 23.7N 139.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 24.4N 135.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 26.0N 132.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 28.5N 129.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 31.5N 128.1E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 22.5N 139.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 139.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.0N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.4N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.8N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.2N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 25.8N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 28.1N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.5N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 139.6E.
13SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
167 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 22.1N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.5N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.0N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.4N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.8N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.7N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 139.3E.
13SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
199 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z
AND 140900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MERBOK)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 21.7N 138.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 138.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.0N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.5N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.1N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.6N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.8N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.6N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 29.6N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 138.6E.
13SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
242 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120153ZSEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 138.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 138.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.0N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.4N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.1N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.6N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.7N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.4N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.1N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 138.7E.
12SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
242 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 120200).//
//
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>

Global Telecommunication Service

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