Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HALIMA-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.2S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.2S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 84.4E.
01APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1012
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND CIRRUS CANOPY HAS SHEARED FURTHER
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED LLC IN
THE 011101Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW 2.5/35KTS, ADT 2.0/30KTS,
AND SATCON 34KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG (25KT+)
RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION AT THE LOW
LEVELS. TC HALIMA IS EXPECTED CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 12 FEET.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010720
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 43/10/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 01/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 84.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/04/2022 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 02/04/2022 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 0

36H: 02/04/2022 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 0

48H: 03/04/2022 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE N'A PAS
REPRIS SUR LE SYSTEME. LE CENTRE APPARAIT TOTALEMENT EXPOSE SUR LES
IMAGES VISIBLES DE LA MATINEE. A DEFAUT DE PASSES ASCAT, LES DONNEES
SMAP ET SMOS DE 0012Z ET 0035Z INDIQUAIENT DE VENTS MAXIMAUX COMPRIS
ENTRE 30 ET 35KT. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ABAISSEE A 30KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME EST ACTUELLEMENT
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ET DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT CE VENDREDI
SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX DIRECTEURS FAIBLES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL
BAROMETRIQUE VERS 850-700 HPA. NEANMOINS, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT
ETRE REPRIS PROGRESSIVEMENT CE SOIR ET DEMAIN DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE
SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS L'OUEST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA REMONTEE D'UNE THALWEG D'ALTITUDE POURRAIT
A NOUVEAU RENFORCER L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU
SYSTEME DEMAIN SAMEDI ET FAVORISER LA PRESENCE DE GRAND FRAIS.
NEANMOINS CELA NE DEVRAIT PAS PERMETTRE DE REELLE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION. HALIMA DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DISPARAITRE
DIMANCHE ET LUNDI SOUS LA FORME D'UN THALWEG DE SURFACE DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT A NOUVEAU HOSTILE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN CONCERNANT LE SYSTEME HALIMA EMIS PAR LE
CMRS DE LA REUNION. IL CONTINUERA D'ETRE SUIVI DANS LE BULLETIN
AWIO21 FMEE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010720
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/10/20212022
1.A REMNANT LOW 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 84.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/01 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 0

36H: 2022/04/02 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 0

48H: 2022/04/03 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DID NOT REAPPEAR ON
THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER APPEARS TOTALLY EXPOSED ON THIS MORNING'S
VISIBLE IMAGES. FOR LACK OF ASCAT PASSES, THE 0012Z AND 0035Z SMAP
AND SMOS DATA INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35KT. THE
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY AND
SHOULD KEEP DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY THIS FRIDAY UNDER THE EFFECT OF WEAK
STEERING FLOWS IN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION IN THE 850-700 HPA
LAYERS. HOWEVER, THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVELY PICKED UP BY
THE TRADE WIND FLOW ON A WESTWARD TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AN UPPER TROUGH COMING FROM THE SOUTH, WILL
LIKELY INCREASE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
TOMORROW SATURDAY, AND SO FAVOR THE PRESENCE OF NEAR GALE FORCE WIND.
HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IS NOT EXPECTED. HALIMA SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY DISAPPEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RMSC LA REUNION ON HALIMA. IT
WILL STILL BE MONITORED IN THE AWIO20 FMEE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 010620
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/04/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 043/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 01/04/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 10 (HALIMA) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 84.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/01 AT 18 UTC:
19.6 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/02 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RMSC LA REUNION ABOUT HALIMA
EXCEPT REINTENSIFICATION. THIS LOW WILL STILL BE MONITORED IN THE
FQIO25 FIMP BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII S.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.4S 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 84.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.3S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.2S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.1S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.0S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 84.0E.
01APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 997
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010036
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 42/10/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 84.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/04/2022 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 0

24H: 02/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 0

36H: 02/04/2022 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 260 NO: 0

48H: 03/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 0

60H: 03/04/2022 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 04/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION ORAGEUSE A POURSUIVI
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT TOUT EN SE DEPORTANT VERS L'EST SOUS L'EFFET D'UN
CISAILLEMENT EN HAUSSE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 2218Z MONTRE UN
VORTEX QUASIMENT DEPOURVU DE CONVECTION PROFONDE, LAQUELLE SE TROUVE
REJETEE A 50 MN A L'EST DU CENTRE. ELLE MONTRE AUSSI QUE, PENDANT QUE
LA CONVECTION S'EST DECALEE VERS L'EST, LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
EST RESTE QUASIMENT STATIONNAIRE DEPUIS LES PASSES ASCAT DE JEUDI
SOIR. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT
CONTINUE A SE RECHAUFFER A L'APLOMB DU CENTRE DE SURFACE, AVEC DES
BURSTS CONVECTIFS RESTANT AU-DELA DE 60 MN A L'EST DU CENTRE. CE
DEPHASAGE DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE PAR RAPPORT AU MINIMUM DE SURFACE
CONDUIT A DECLASSER LE SYSTEME EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE, MAIS AVEC
DES VENTS QUI DEPASSENT ENCORE VRAISEMBLABLEMENT LE SEUIL DE COUP DE
VENT PAR INERTIE : LES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES SONT ABAISSES A 35 KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME EST ACTUELLEMENT EN PHASE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ET DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT CE VENDREDI
SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX DIRECTEURS FAIBLES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL
BAROMETRIQUE VERS 850-700 HPA. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE MINIMUM
RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
ORIENTEE VERS L'OUEST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT A COMMENCE A
ADVECTER L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST A L'APLOMB DU
MINIMUM DE SURFACE, AMORCANT AINSI L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DU
SYSTEME. CE PROCESSUS DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE A COURT TERME ET
PROVOQUER LE COMBLEMENT GRADUEL DU SYSTEME. DU VENT DE LA FORCE DU
GRAND FRAIS DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD,
ESSENTIELLEMENT PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010036
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/10/20212022
1.A REMNANT LOW 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 84.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

24H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 0

36H: 2022/04/02 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 0

48H: 2022/04/03 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 0

60H: 2022/04/03 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2022/04/04 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN WHILE
DRIFTING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM'S CENTER DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR.
THE 2218Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A VORTEX ALMOST DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION, WHICH IS REJECTED 50 MN EAST OF THE CENTER. IT ALSO SHOWS
THAT, WHILE CONVECTION HAS MOVED EASTWARD, THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS
BEEN ALMOST STATIONARY SINCE THURSDAY EVENING'S ASCAT PASSES. ON THE
LAST SATELLITE IMAGES, CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM WITH REMNANT
CONVECTIVE BURSTS STAYING BEYOND 60 MN EAST FROM THE CENTER. THE FACT
THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW OUT OF PHASE WITH THE SURFACE LOW LEADS
TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A REMNANT LOW, BUT WITH WINDS THAT PROBABLY
STILL EXCEED GALE FORCE THRESHOLD BY INERTIA : ESTIMATED MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE THUS LOWERED TO 35 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A QUASI-STATIONARY
PHASE AND SHOULD KEEP MOVING VERY SLOWLY THIS FRIDAY UNDER THE EFFECT
OF WEAK STEERING FLOWS IN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION IN THE 850-700
HPA LAYERS. FROM SATURDAY, THE REMNANT FILLING LOW SHOULD START
MOVING STEADIER ON A WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, INCREASING WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO DRIVE DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR FROM THE WEST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX, THUS
INITIATING THE SYSTEM'S FINAL WEAKENING. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE
IN THE SHORT TERM AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY FILL. NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FOR A WHILE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
ESSENTIALLY BY GRADIENT EFFECT.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 010018
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/04/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 042/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 01/04/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 10 (HALIMA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 84.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/01 AT 12 UTC:
19.5 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/02 AT 00 UTC:
19.4 S / 83.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311840
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 41/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 31/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 84.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/04/2022 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 01/04/2022 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 0

36H: 02/04/2022 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 0

48H: 02/04/2022 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 260 NO: 0

60H: 03/04/2022 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 03/04/2022 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

LA CONVECTION ORAGEUSE QUI S'EST NETTEMENT RENFORCEE DEPUIS 1100Z EST
RESTEE VIGOUREUSE JUSQU'A 1630Z AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS A MOINS DE
-80C AU SEIN D'UN CDO EN EXPANSION. LE CENTRE S'EST AINSI PLACE
ENCORE PLUS A L'INTERIEUR DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE, FAISANT ENCORE
LEGEREMENT MONTER LE DT. UNE PASSE SMOS DE 1215Z INDIQUE DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX A 48KT LIMITES AU QUADRANT SUD SOUS LA CONVECTION. LES
PASSES ASCAT DE 1547Z ET 1634Z MONTRENT DES VENTS MAXIMAUX JUSQU'A
40/42KT AU SUD ET A L'EST DE LA CIRCULATION MAIS POSSIBLEMENT
PERTURBES PAR LA CONVECTION. CES ELEMENTS SUGGERENT QUE L'INTENSITE
S'EST POTENTIELLEMENT APPROCHEE DE 45KT ENTRE 12 ET 15UTC EN PHASE
AVEC CE PUISSANT BURST CONVECTIF. TOUTEFOIS, LA CONVECTION S'EST
ATTENUEE DEPUIS 1630Z AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT
PROGRESSIVEMENT RECHAUFFES. CETTE EVOLUTION RECENTE SUGGERE UN
POSSIBLE DEBUT D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. L'INTENSITE RESTE DONC ESTIMEE A
40KT A 18UTC, MEME SI DES VENTS LOCAUX A 45KT NE SONT PAS
COMPLETEMENT EXCLUS. PAR AILLEURS, LES PASSES ASCAT ONT PERMIS DE
REACTUALISER LES EXTENSIONS DE VENTS, AVEC UNE CIRCULATION DEVENANT
ASSEZ ALLONGEE ET L'ABSENCE DE COUP DE VENT DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD-OUEST.

LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE TRES LENTE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST CETTE NUIT,
LIEE A UN FLUX DIRECTEUR INFLUENCE PAR LES COUCHES 700-500 HPA. AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME VENDREDI MATIN, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
DEVRAIT DESCENDRE PLUS BAS AVEC D'ABORD UNE SITUATION DE COL
BAROMETRIQUE VERS 850-700 HPA VENDREDI AVANT UNE REPRISE DU MINIMUM
RESIDUEL DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE CE WEEK-END AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE
ORIENTEE VERS L'OUEST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HALIMA CONTINUE DE BENEFICIER D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE, COMMENCANT A ETRE TOUTEFOIS EN HAUSSE,
MATERIALISE A L'IMAGERIE AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UN ARC DE CIRRUS DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. HALIMA DEVRAIT ENCORE MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CETTE NUIT AVANT QU'UNE HAUSSE
SUBSTANTIELLE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ICI VENDREDI MATIN NE VIENNE
RENFORCER L'IMPACT DE L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR LA
CIRCULATION. HALIMA DEVRAIT EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
(CONVECTION PROFONDE DEPHASEE AVEC LE MINIMUM DE SURFACE) ET SE
COMBLER ENSUITE GRADUELLEMENT LES JOURS SUIVANTS. DU VENT DE LA FORCE
DU GRAND FRAIS DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD,
ESSENTIELLEMENT PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/31 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 84.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2022/04/01 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 0

36H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 0

48H: 2022/04/02 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 0

60H: 2022/04/03 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2022/04/03 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

CONVECTION HAS REMAINED VIGOROUS SINCE 1100Z AND UNTIL 1630Z WITH
COLD CLOUD TOPS REACHING LESS THAN -80C WITHIN AN EXPANDING CDO. THE
SYSTEM'S CENTER HAS THUS BEEN LOCATED EVEN MORE INSIDE THE CDO,
YIELDING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER DT THAN PREVIOUSLY. A 1215Z SMOS PASS
INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS AT 48KT LOCALLY IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT
UNDER THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AREA. 1547Z AND 1634Z ASCAT PASSES
SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 40/42KT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION
BUT POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE SQUALLS. THESE ELEMENTS SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY MAY HAVE TEMPORARILY GOT NEAR TO 45KT
BETWEEN 12 AND 15UTC IN PHASE WITH THIS POWERFUL CONVECTIVE BURST.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS NOW WEAKENED SINCE 1630Z WITH RECENT IMAGERY
SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THIS RECENT EVOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY THUS REMAINS
ESTIMATED AT 40KT AT 18UTC, EVEN IF LOCAL WINDS NEAR 45KT ARE NOT
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. MOREOVER, ASCAT DATA HAS ENABLED TO UPDATE WIND
EXTENSIONS, DEPICTING A MORE ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND THE ABSENCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON A VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRACK TONIGHT, DUE TO
STEERING FLOW FROM THE 700-500 HPA LAYERS. WHILE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD SHIFT TO LOWER LAYERS,
WITH AT FIRST A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION AROUND 850-700 HPA ON FRIDAY
BEFORE THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS
FLOW THIS WEEKEND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR, WHICH IS NEVERTHELESS STARTING TO INCREASE,
MATERIALIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BY THE PRESENCE OF A CIRRUS ARC IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. HALIMA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING REINFORCES DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR
INTRUSIONS ONTO THE CIRCULATION. HALIMA SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A REMNANT
LOW (DEEP CONVECTION OUT OF PHASE WITH THE SURFACE MINIMUM) AND THEN
GRADUALLY FILL IN OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FOR A WHILE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, ESSENTIALLY BY
GRADIENT EFFECT.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 311820
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 84.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
19.4 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/01 AT 18 UTC:
19.4 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 84.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 84.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.4S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.3S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.3S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.2S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 84.3E.
31MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1009 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 16
FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 40/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 31/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 83.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 01/04/2022 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 0

36H: 02/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

48H: 02/04/2022 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 0

60H: 03/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 0

72H: 03/04/2022 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

UNE CONVECTION VIGOUREUSE S'EST MAINTENUE DEPUIS 06Z DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. DEPUIS 10Z, CETTE CONVECTION ORAGEUSE S'EST
SENSIBLEMENT RENFORCEE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS ASSOCIES JUSQU'A
-85C/-90C EN BORD DE FAUCHEE MSG-1. LE CENTRE EST ESTIME SOUS LA
BORDURE NORD DE LA MASSE, FAISANT MONTER LE DT D'UNE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 40 KT COMPTE TENU DE
L'EVOLUTION RECENTE ET EN EXTRAPOLATION DES DONNEES ASCAT DE CE
MATIN.

LA TRAJECTOIRE SEMBLE AVOIR ENCORE RALENTIE DEPUIS CE MATIN. UNE
LENTE DERIVE EST, LIEE A UN FLUX DIRECTEUR INFLUENCE PAR LES COUCHES
700-500 HPA, POURRAIT ENCORE SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A LA NUIT PROCHAINE
AVANT QUE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME RAMENE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PLUS
BAS AVEC D'ABORD UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE VERS 850-700 HPA
VENDREDI AVANT UNE REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PAR LE FLUX D'ALIZE CE
WEEK-END AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HALIMA CONTINUE DE BENEFICIER D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE, COMMENCANT A ETRE TOUTEFOIS EN HAUSSE,
D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST. CELA SE MATERIALISE A L'IMAGERIE AVEC
L'APPARITION D'UN ARC DE CIRRUS DANS L EDEMI-CERCLE OUEST. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, HALIMA DEVRAIT ENCORE MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE JUSQU'A CE SOIR AVANT QU'UNE HAUSSE SUBSTANTIELLE
DU CISAILLEMENT EN COURS DE NUIT NE VIENNE RENFORCER L'IMPACT DE
L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR LA CIRCULATION. HALIMA DEVRAIT
EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE (CONVECTION PROFONDE DEPHASEE AVEC
LE MINIMUM DE SURFACE) ET SE COMBLER ENSUITE GRADUELLEMENT LES JOURS
SUIVANTS. DU VENT DE LA FORCE DU GRAND FRAIS, VOIRE LOCALEMENT ET
TEMPORAIREMENT DU COUP DE VENT, DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD, ESSENTIELLEMENT PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 83.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

48H: 2022/04/02 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2022/04/03 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/03 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

A VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED SINCE 06Z IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE 10Z, THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ASSOCIATED VERY COLD TOPS UP TO
-85C/-90C SEEN WITH THE EASTERN SCOPE OF MSG-1. THE CENTER IS
ESTIMATED UNDER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MASS, RAISING THE DT OF A
SHEARED PATTERN. THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT CONSIDERING THE
RECENT EVOLUTION AND EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE ASCAT DATA OF THIS
MORNING.

THE TRACK SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AGAIN SINCE THIS MORNING. A SLOW
EASTERLY DRIFT, LINKED TO A STEERING FLOW INFLUENCED BY THE 700-500
HPA LAYERS, COULD STILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL NEXT NIGHT BEFORE THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BRINGS BACK THE STEERING FLOW LOWER WITH
FIRST A SITUATION OF BAROMETRIC COL AROUND 850-700 HPA ON FRIDAY
BEFORE A RESUMPTION OF THE STEERING FLOW BY THE TRADEWINDS FLOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST ORIENTED TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM A MODERATE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR, STARTING TO INCREASE HOWEVER. THIS
IS MATERIALIZED IN THE IMAGERY WITH THE APPEARANCE OF AN ARC OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. IN THIS CONTEXT, HALIMA
SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY UNTIL
TONIGHT BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NIGHT
REINFORCES THE IMPACT OF THE DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR ON THE
CIRCULATION. HALIMA SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A REMNANT LOW (DEEP CONVECTION
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE SURFACE MINIMUM) AND THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN THE
FOLLOWING DAYS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, EVEN LOCALLY AND TEMPORARILY
GALE FORCE WINDS, SHOULD MAINTAIN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE,
ESSENTIALLY BY GRADIENT EFFECT.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 311219
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 040/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 83.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/01 AT 00 UTC:
19.6 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/01 AT 12 UTC:
19.5 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310639
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 39/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 83.7 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 0

24H: 01/04/2022 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 0

36H: 01/04/2022 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 0

48H: 02/04/2022 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 0

60H: 02/04/2022 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 120 NO: 0

72H: 03/04/2022 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HALIMA CONTINUE DE FLUCTUER SENSIBLEMENT
AU GRE DES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION PROFONDE SE CANTONNANT
PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
LES PASS ASCAT DE 0318Z ET DE 0405Z ONT PERMIS DE PRECISER LA
POSITION, L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DE HALIMA. AVEC DES VENTS A
38-40 KT LUS SUR LES DEUX PASS, L'INTENSITE RESTE INCHANGEE A 40 KT
EN PHASE AVEC L'ESTIMATION SATCON DE 0404Z A 45 KT (VENTS 1-MIN).

LA DERIVE EST LENTE, LIEE A UN FLUX DIRECTEUR INFLUENCE PAR LES
COUCHES 700-500 HPA, DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A LA NUIT PROCHAINE
AVANT QUE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME RAMENE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PLUS
BAS AVEC D'ABORD UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE VERS 850-700 HPA
VENDREDI AVANT UNE REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PAR LE FLUX D'ALIZE CE
WEEK-END AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HALIMA CONTINUE DE BENEFICIER D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE A MODERE (MOINS DE 10 KT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST D'APRES LE CIMSS A 03 UTC) PRESERVANT PARTIELLEMENT LE
SYSTEME DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT TRES SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, HALIMA DEVRAIT ENCORE MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE JUSQU'A CE SOIR AVANT QU'UNE HAUSSE SUBSTANTIELLE
DU CISAILLEMENT EN COURS DE NUIT NE VIENNE RENFORCER L'IMPACT DE
L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR LA CIRCULATION. HALIMA DEVRAIT
EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE (CONVECTION PROFONDE DEPHASEE AVEC
LE MINIMUM DE SURFACE) ET SE COMBLER ENSUITE GRADUELLEMENT LES JOURS
SUIVANTS. DU VENT DE LA FORCE DU GRAND FRAIS, VOIRE LOCALEMENT ET
TEMPORAIREMENT DU COUP DE VENT, DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD, ESSENTIELLEMENT PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 83.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2022/04/01 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0

60H: 2022/04/02 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/03 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HALIMA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
DEEP CONVECTION OUTBREAKS CONFINED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE ASCAT PASSES OF 0318Z AND 0405Z HAVE ALLOWED TO CLARIFY THE
POSITION, INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF HALIMA. WITH WINDS AT 38-40 KT
READ ON BOTH PASSES, THE INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 40 KT IN
PHASE WITH THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 0404Z AT 45 KT (1-MIN WINDS).

THE SLOW EASTWARDS DRIFT, LINKED TO A STEERING FLOW INFLUENCED BY THE
700-500 HPA LEVELS, SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL NEXT NIGHT BEFORE THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BRINGS BACK THE STEERING FLOW LOWER WITH
FIRST A SITUATION OF BAROMETRIC COL AROUND 850-700 HPA ON FRIDAY
BEFORE A RESUMPTION OF THE STEERING FLOW BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH A TRACK ORIENTED TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM A WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR (LESS THAN 10 KT FROM THE NORTH-WEST
ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS AT 03 UTC) PARTIALLY PRESERVING THE SYSTEM
FROM THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. IN THIS
CONTEXT, HALIMA SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY UNTIL TONIGHT BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE OF THE SHEAR
DURING THE NIGHT REINFORCES THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR OF THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE ON THE CIRCULATION. HALIMA SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A REMNANT
LOW (DEEP CONVECTION REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE LOW) AND THEN GRADUALLY
FILL IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO LOCALLY AND
TEMPORARILY GALE FORCE WINDS, SHOULD MAINTAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, ESSENTIALLY BY GRADIENT EFFECT.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO THE LAND AREA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 310618
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 83.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP
TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/31 AT 18 UTC:
19.6 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 83.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 83.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.3S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.2S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.1S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 83.4E.
31MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 965
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310043
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 38/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 31/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 83.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/03/2022 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 0

24H: 01/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

36H: 01/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 02/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 02/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 03/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT BIEN
RECHAUFFES INDIQUANT UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE FAIBLISSANTE. LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE PEUT ETRE DEFINIE COMME CISAILLEE VOIRE EN
BANDE INCURVEE DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES. LES ANALYSES DE CISAILLEMENT
DU CIMSS CONTINUENT DE NOTER UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
MAIS FAIBLISSANT. LA LOCALISATION PLUS PRECISE POSSIBLE GRACE AUX
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT PLAIDE POUR CETTE DERNIERE
CONFIGURATION. CELA PERMET AUSSI DE NOTER UNE ORIENTATION
EST-NORD-EST PLUS PRESENTE DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE
3.0 EST MAINTENUE ET PERMET UNE ESTIMATION DES VENTS A 40KT.

QUELQUES CHANGEMENTS DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE D'HALIMA : ELLE PRESENTE UNE
ORIENTATION EST-NORD-EST CERTAINEMENT PRECURSEUR UNE COMPOSANTE
TEMPORAIRE VERS L'EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS PRONONCEE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE. MAIS LA TRAJECTOIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H DEVRAIT
RESTER GLOBALEMENT LENTE, POUVANT PRESENTER UNE DIRECTION EST PUIS
OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI. DANS LA JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, HALIMA
S'AFFAIBLISSANT PLUS FRANCHEMENT, DEVRAIT SUBIR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
PLUS FRANC A UN NIVEAU PLUS BAS. AINSI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE
RECUPEREE PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET
TRANSITAIT VERS L'OUEST DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HALIMA CONTINUE DE SUBIR UNE CONTRAINTE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, MAIS FAIBLISSANTE, FAVORISANT L'ADVECTION D'AIR
SEC ET LIMITANT AINSI LA CONVECTION. DANS CE CONTEXTE, HALIMA DEVRAIT
MAINTENIR TEMPORAIREMENT UNE INTENSITE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
PENDANT PRES DE 12H AVANT DE FAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT EN JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD. LA
HAUSSE ASSOCIEE DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEFINITIF DU SYSTEME EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 83.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

24H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2022/04/02 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/04/03 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP WELL
INDICATING WEAKENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CAN BE
DEFINED AS SHEARED OR EVEN AS A CURVED BAND FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
SHEAR ANALYSES OF THE CIMSS CONTINUE TO NOTE A SHEAR OF AVERAGE
TROPOSPHERE BUT WEAKENING. THE MORE PRECISE LOCALIZATION POSSIBLE
THANKS TO THE MICROWAVE DATA OF THE NIGHT PLEADS FOR THIS LAST
CONFIGURATION. IT ALSO ALLOWS TO NOTE A MORE PRESENT EAST-NORTH-EAST
ORIENTATION IN THE TRAJECTORY. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.0 IS
MAINTAINED AND ALLOWS AN ESTIMATION OF THE WINDS AT 40KT.

SOME CHANGES IN HALIMA'S TRACK : IT PRESENTS AN EAST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION CERTAINLY PRECURSOR OF A TEMPORARY EASTWARD COMPONENT
DURING THE NEXT HOURS, UNDER THE TEMPORARY MORE PRONOUNCED INFLUENCE
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BUT THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SHOULD REMAIN SLOW OVERALL, POSSIBLY MOVING EAST THEN WEST UNTIL
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, HALIMA WEAKENING MORE FRANKLY, SHOULD UNDERGO A
MORE FRANK STEERING FLOW AT A LOWER LEVEL. THUS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
PICKED UP BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE'S STEERING FLOW AND TRANSIT
WESTWARD INTO THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WIND FLOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER MID-TROPOSPHERE
STRESS, BUT WEAKENING, FAVORING DRY AIR ADVECTION AND THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION. IN THIS CONTEXT, HALIMA SHOULD TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING MORE CLEARLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301846
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 82.7 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85

24H: 31/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 140

36H: 01/04/2022 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 01/04/2022 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 02/04/2022 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 02/04/2022 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/04/2022 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE N'A PAS
BEAUCOUP EVOLUE, RESTANT CISAILLEE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DE HALIMA. EN L'ABSENCE DE MICRO-ONDES RECENTES ET
DE PASSES ASCAT EXPLOITABLES, LA LOCALISATION RESTE DELICATE
NOTAMMENT DANS LES PERIODES DE DEPLACEMENT LENT COMME C'EST
ACTUELLEMENT LE CAS. L'ANALYSE DVORAK DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION PERMET
UNE ESTIMATION DES VENTS MOYENNES SUR 10 MINUTES A 40KT, C'EST-A-DIRE
QUE HALIMA CONSERVE SON INTENSITE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE D'HALIMA : CELUI-CI DEVRAIT
RESTER LENTE ET EN DIRECTION DU NORD-EST JUSQU'A VENDREDI, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE LOINTAINE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SE SITUANT AU NORD-NORD-EST. DANS LA JOURNEE DE VENDREDI,
HALIMA S'AFFAIBLISSANT PLUS FRANCHEMENT, DEVRAIT SUBIR UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR A UN NIVEAU PLUS BAS, DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.
AINSI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE RECUPEREE PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET TRANSITAIT VERS L'OUEST DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES
DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HALIMA CONTINUE DE SUBIR UNE FORTE CONTRAINTE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE FAVORISANT L'ADVECTION D'AIR SEC EN PERIPHERIE
IMMEDIATE DU SYSTEME ET SURTOUT A L'OUEST DE CELUI-CI. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, HALIMA DEVRAIT MAINTENIR TEMPORAIREMENT UNE INTENSITE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVANT DE FAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT EN JOURNEE
DE VENDREDI SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD. LA
HAUSSE ASSOCIEE DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEFINITIF DU SYSTEME EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 82.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 140

36H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2022/04/01 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2022/04/02 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/03 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH,
REMAINING SHEARED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF HALIMA. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVES AND EXPLOITABLE ASCAT
SWATH, THE LOCALIZATION REMAINS DELICATE, ESPECIALLY IN PERIODS OF
SLOW MOVEMENT AS IT IS CURRENTLY THE CASE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
THIS CONFIGURATION ALLOWS AN ESTIMATION OF THE AVERAGE WINDS OVER 10
MINUTES AT 40KT, I.E. HALIMA KEEPS ITS INTENSITY OF MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM.

LITTLE CHANGE IN HALIMA'S TRACK: IT SHOULD REMAIN SLOW AND
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FRIDAY, UNDER THE DISTANT INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE LOCATED NORTH-NORTHEAST. ON
FRIDAY, HALIMA WEAKENING MORE FRANKLY, SHOULD UNDERGO A STEERING FLOW
AT A LOWER LEVEL, OF LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE. THUS THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE RECOVERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING FLOW AND
TRANSIT WESTWARD IN THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WIND FLOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER STRONG
MID-TROPOSPHERE STRESS FAVORING THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE
IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF IT.
IN THIS CONTEXT, HALIMA SHOULD TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE WEAKENING MORE CLEARLY ON FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THE
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 301804
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 30/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 82.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 230 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/31 AT 06 UTC:
19.1 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/31 AT 18 UTC:
18.9 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.3S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.1S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.9S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.7S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 82.4E.
30MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 947
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301239
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 30/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 82.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 31/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 01/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 01/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 02/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 02/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 260 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/04/2022 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 04/04/2022 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST ENTRETENUE ET
ETENDUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD COMME LE MONTRE L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE
SSMIS DE 1117Z. PEU APRES L'HEURE DU RESEAU, LE CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES S'EST PEU A PEU EXPOSE EN BORDURE NORD DE LA CONVECTION
PRINCIPALE, TOUT EN PROGRESSANT LENTEMENT AU NORD-NORD-EST, SOUS
L'EFFET D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO ESTIME A 30KT PAR LES
DONNEES DU CIMSS. L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE AINSI QUE LES DONNES MIMIC-TPW
MONTRENT TOUJOURS L'AIR SEC QUI ENSERRE PEU A PEU LE COEUR CHAUD
D'HALIMA. L'HUMIDITE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EST AINSI RELEGUEE
GRADUELLEMENT AU SUD DU CENTRE DE SURFACE DE BASSES COUCHES. LE MET
ET LE DT PLAIDENT TOUJOURS POUR UN FT DE 3.0, LEGEREMENT AU-DESSUS
DES DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. HALIMA
EST DONC MAINTENU AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE POUR 40KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE D'HALIMA, DEVRAIT RESTER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE EN
DIRECTION DU NORD-NORD-EST JUSQU'A VENDREDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE
LOINTAINE DE LA BORDURE SUD-EST DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AU DELA , HALIMA DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS
FRANCHEMENT ET DURABLEMENT, ET DEVRAIT SUBIR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR A UN
NIVEAU PLUS BAS, DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPO; AINSI LA DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE DEVRAIT A TRE RECUPEREE ET A VACUEE RAPIDEMENT PAR DE LA
BORDURE SEPTENTRIONALE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, SE RENFORA ANT
PLUS AU SUD. MALGRA LA DISPERSION IMPORTANTE DES MEMBRES DES MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES EUROPEEN ET AMERICAIN A CES ECHEANCES, IL EST A PEU PRES
SUR QUE QU'HALIMA DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE DIRECTION GA NA RALE VERS
L'OUEST DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HALIMA POSITIONNE ACTUELLEMENT A L'APLOMB
D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPO, SUBIT UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND,
(EN BAISSE DEPUIS CES DERNIERES 24 HEURES). TOUTEFOIS, ET CE DEPUIS
PLUSIEURS JOURS, HALIMA ENDURE UNE FORTE CONTRAINTE EN TERMES DE
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO. CET ENVIRONNEMENT ASSOCIA A LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN PERIPHERIE IMMEDIATE DU SYSTEME ET SURTOUT A
L'OUEST DE CELUI-CI, VA FINIR PAR ANNIHILER DEFINITIVEMENT LES
VELLEITES D'INTENSIFICATION D'HALIMA. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME
DEVRAIT RESTER AU MOINS AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
AUJOURD'HUI, VOIRE DEMAIN JEUDI. PUIS EN FIN DESEMAINE, LE TALWEG DE
MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT SE DECALER VERS L'EST, EXPOSANT LE SYSTEME A UN
ENVIRONNEMENT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT PLUS SEC COUPLE A UNE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT, CE QUI DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF
DU SYSTEME EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 82.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/04/02 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/03 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/04 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND
EXTENDED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS SHOWN ON THE 1117Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. SHORTLY AFTER 12 UTC, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION, WHILE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
STRONG MID-TROPICAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 30KT BY THE LAST
CIMSS DATA. THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY AND THE MIMIC-TPW STILL DEPICT THE
DRY AIR THAT IS GRADUALLY ENCLOSING THE WARM CORE OF HALIMA. THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS THUS GRADUALLY RELEASED SOUTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTRE. THE MET AND DT STILL ARGUE FOR A FT OF 3.0,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA.
HALIMA IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FOR 40KT.

HALIMA'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK UNTIL FRIDAY, UNDER THE DISTANT INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT,
HALIMA SHOULD WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY AND DURABLY, AND SHOULD UNDERGO A
STEERING FLOW AT A LOWER LEVEL, OF LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE; THUS
THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION SHOULD BE RECOVERED AND EVACUATED QUICKLY BY
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, STRENGTHENING FURTHER
SOUTH. DESPITE THE WIDE DISPERSION OF THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS AT THESE PERRIODS, IT IS THEREFORE PRETTY SURE
THAT HALIMA SHOULD START A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION IN TRADE WINDS
FLOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED UNDER A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH, AND IS UNDERGOING WEAK DEEP VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, (DECREASING SINCE THE LAST 24 HOURS). HOWEVER, HALIMA HAS BEEN
UNDER STRONG MID-TROPO VWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE IMMEDIATE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST OF IT, WILL END UP
ANNIHILATING DEFINITIVELY THE HALIMA'S POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION.
THUS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST AT THE STAGE
OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM TODAY, OR EVEN TOMORROW THURSDAY. THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK, THE MID-TROPICAL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD,
EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
INCREASED VWS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE FINAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 301213
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 30/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 82.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO
190 NM IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, AND UP TO 255 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/31 AT 00 UTC:
19.2 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/31 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 300613
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 30/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 82.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/30 AT 18 UTC:
19.4 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/31 AT 06 UTC:
19.2 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.5S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.1S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.9S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.7S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.4S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 81.7E.
30MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 946
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300025
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 82.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95

24H: 31/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 0

36H: 31/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

48H: 01/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 01/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

72H: 02/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST MAINTENUE
PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, AVEC UN REGAIN DE CONVECTION
EN FIN DE PERIODE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ATTEIGNANT TEMPORAIREMENT
DES TEMPERATURES PLUS FROIDES (SOMMETS DE CB JUSQU'A -75/-80C)
ACCOMPAGNE D'UN ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE TEMPORAIRE.
LA STRUCTURE EVOLUE PLUTOT VERS UNE CONFIGURATIA ON CISAILLEE,
PRESENTANT UN ARC DE CIRRUS ASSEZ LOIN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.
LE SYSTEME SEMBLE SOUFFRIR DE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT, MEME
SI LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICALE RESTE POUR LE MOMENT RELATIVEMENT
FAIBLE, ET LIMITE LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME.
L'INTENSITE A ETE MAINTENUE A 45 KT, EN ATTENDANT D'AUTRES DONNEES
OBJECTIVES.

UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE ET HESITANTE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD SE
CONFIRME JUSQU'A JEUDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS FAIBLES
ET CONTRADICTOIRES. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, EN RAISON DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS
VERS L'OUEST DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE. LE DETAIL DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE INCERTAIN EN LIEN AVEC L'INCERTITUDE SUR
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, HALIMA BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A
MODERE DE L'ORDRE DE 10 A 15 KT, JUSQU'A MERCREDI, ALORS QUE LE
SYSTEME CIRCULE SOUS UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT ATYPIQUE POUR UN PHENOMENE CYCLONIQUE.
CE CISAILLEMENT MODESTE AINSI QUE L'AMELIORATION DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE D'ICI JEUDI, POURRAIENT FAVORISER LE MAINTIENT DE
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DU SYSTEME MERCREDI. NEANMOINS, LA PRESENCE
D'AIR TRES SEC EN PERIPHERIE IMMEDIATE DU SYSTEME REND CETTE
EVOLUTION FRAGILE, D'AUTANT QUE LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT REPARTIR A LA
HAUSSE A PARTIR DE JEUDI. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RESTER AU MOINS AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JUSQU'A JEUDI.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE TALWEG DEVRAIT SE DECALER VERS L'EST, EXPOSANT
LE SYSTEME A UN ENVIRONNEMENT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE COUPLE A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND, CE QUI
DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DU SYSTEME EN TOUTE
FIN DE SEMAINE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.MAINTENU QUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 82.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95

24H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/03 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH CLOUD TOPS TEMPORARILY REACHING COLDER
TEMPERATURES (TOPS OF CB UP TO -75/-80C) ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPORARY
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY.
THE STRUCTURE EVOLVES RATHER TOWARDS A SHEARED CONFIGURATION,
PRESENTING AN ARC OF CIRRUS CLOUDS RATHER FAR IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO SUFFER FROM THE PRESENCE OF SURROUNDING DRY AIR,
EVEN IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FOR THE MOMENT RELATIVELY WEAK,
AND LIMITS THE INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR WITHIN THE SYSTEM.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45 KT, WHILE WAITING FOR MORE
OBJECTIVE DATA.

A SLOW AND HESITANT TRAJECTORY IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IS
CONFIRMED UNTIL THURSDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK AND
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. FROM FRIDAY, DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM SHOULD BE RESUMED WESTWARD IN THE
LOW TROPOSPHERE ALIZE FLOW. THE DETAIL OF THE TRAJECTORY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN IN CONNECTION WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA IS BENEFITING FROM A WEAK TO MODERATE
SHEAR OF THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS CIRCULATING UNDER A MID TO HIGH TROPO TROUGH IN A RATHER ATYPICAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR A CYCLONIC PHENOMENON. THIS MODEST SHEAR AS WELL AS
THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY,
COULD FAVOUR THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE
IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM MAKES THIS EVOLUTION FRAGILE,
ESPECIALLY AS THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY. THUS,
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST AT THE STAGE OF
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.


HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 300011
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 30/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 82.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/30 AT 12 UTC:
19.7 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/31 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291811
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.8 S / 82.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 85

24H: 30/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 110

36H: 31/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 95

48H: 31/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 130

60H: 01/04/2022 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 130

72H: 01/04/2022 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2022 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST MAINTENUE
PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, MALGRE DES REGAINS
TEMPORAIRES DE CONVECTION DANS L'EST DE LA CIRCULATION, AVEC DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX ATTEIGNANT TEMPORAIREMENT DES TEMPERATURES FROIDES
(SOMMETS DE CB JUSQU'A -75/-80C).
LA STRUCTURE EVOLUE PLUTOT VERS UNE CONFIGURATIA ON CISAILLEE,
PRESENTANT UN ARC DE CIRRUS ASSEZ LOIN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.
LE SYSTEME SEMBLE SOUFFRIR DE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT, MEME
SI LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICALE RESTE POUR LE MEOMENT RELATIVEMENT
FAIBLE, ET LIMITE LES INTRUSIONS.
L'INTENSITE A ETE MIAINTENUE A 45 KT, EN ATTENDANT D'AUTRES DONNEES
OBJECTIVES.

UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE ET HESITANTE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD SE
CONFIRME JUSQU'A JEUDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS FAIBLES
ET CONTRADICTOIRES. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, EN RAISON DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS
VERS L'OUEST DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE. LE DETAIL DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE INCERTAIN EN LIEN AVEC L'INCERTITUDE SUR
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, HALIMA BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A
MODERE DE L'ORDRE DE 10 A 15 KT JUSQU'A MERCREDI, ALORS QUE LE
SYSTEME CIRCULE SOUS UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT ATYPIQUE POUR UN PHENOMENE CYCLONIQUE. CE
CISAILLEMENT MODESTE AINSI QUE L'AMELIORATION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
D'ICI JEUDI, POURRAIENT FAVORISER LE MAINTIENT DE L'INTENSITE
ACTUELLE DU SYSTEME MERCREDI. NEANMOINS, LA PRESENCE D'AIR TRES SEC
EN PERIPHERIE IMMEDIATE DU SYSTEME REND CETTE EVOLUTION FRAGILE,
D'AUTANT QUE LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT REPARTIR A LA HAUSSE A PARTIR DE
JEUDI. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER AU MOINS AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JUSQU'A JEUDI MATIN. A PARTIR DE JEUDI,
LE TALWEG DEVRAIT SE DECALER VERS L'EST, EXPOSANT LE SYSTEME A UN
ENVIRONNEMENT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
COUPLE A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND, CE QUI DEVRAIT CONDUIRE
A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DU SYSTEME EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.MAINTENU QUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291811
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 82.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 110

36H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 130

60H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 130

72H: 2022/04/01 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/02 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, DESPITE TEMPORARY UPSURGES OF CONVECTION
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH CLOUD TOPS TEMPORARILY
REACHING COLD TEMPERATURES (TOPS OF CB UP TO -75/-80C).
THE STRUCTURE EVOLVES RATHER TOWARDS A SHEARED CONFIGURATION, WITH AN
ARC OF CIRRUS CLOUDS QUITE FAR IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO SUFFER FROM THE PRESENCE OF SURROUNDING DRY AIR,
EVEN IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FOR THE MOMENT RELATIVELY WEAK,
AND LIMITS THE INTRUSIONS.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45 KT, WHILE WAITING FOR MORE
OBJECTIVE DATA.

A SLOW AND HESITANT TRAJECTORY IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IS
CONFIRMED UNTIL THURSDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK AND
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. FROM FRIDAY, DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM SHOULD BE RESUMED WESTWARD IN THE
LOW TROPOSPHERE ALIZE FLOW. THE DETAIL OF THE TRAJECTORY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN IN CONNECTION WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA IS BENEFITING FROM A WEAK TO MODERATE
SHEAR OF THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS CIRCULATING UNDER A MID TO HIGH TROPO TROUGH IN A RATHER ATYPICAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR A CYCLONIC PHENOMENON. THIS MODEST SHEAR AS WELL AS
THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY,
COULD FAVOUR THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE
IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM MAKES THIS EVOLUTION FRAGILE,
ESPECIALLY AS THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY. THUS,
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST AT THE STAGE OF
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.


HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291811
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 29/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 82.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/30 AT 06 UTC:
20.0 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/30 AT 18 UTC:
19.6 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 82.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 82.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.7S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.2S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.9S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.8S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.4S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 82.5E.
29MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1035 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291228
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.3 S / 82.6 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75

24H: 30/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 95

48H: 31/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 01/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 185

72H: 01/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 185

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 03/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST INTENSIFIEE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT
REFROIDIS (SOMMETS DE CB JUSQU'A -75/-80C). LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE
INCURVEE A MONTRE DES FLUCTUATIONS, REDEVENANT PLUS AFFIRMEE EN
IMAGERIE VISIBLE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, MAIS SANS STRUCTURE
PARTICULIEREMENT DURABLE. MALGRE UN SATCON ET UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN
LEGERE BAISSE, LE REGAIN DE CONVECTION ET L'AMELIORATION DE
L'APPARENCE SATELLITAIRE AUTOUR DE 12UTC CONDUISENT A MAINTENIR
L'INTENSITE A 45 KT, EN ATTENDANT D'AUTRES DONNEES OBJECTIVES.

UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE ET HESITANTE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD SE
CONFIRME JUSQU'A JEUDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS FAIBLES
ET CONTRADICTOIRES. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, EN RAISON DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS
VERS L'OUEST DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE. LE DETAIL DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE INCERTAIN EN LIEN AVEC L'INCERTITUDE SUR
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, HALIMA BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A
MODERE DE L'ORDRE DE 10 A 15 KT JUSQU'A MERCREDI, ALORS QUE LE
SYSTEME CIRCULE SOUS UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT ATYPIQUE POUR UN PHENOMENE CYCLONIQUE. CE
CISAILLEMENT MODESTE AINSI QUE L'AMELIORATION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
D'ICI JEUDI, POURRAIENT FAVORISER UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION
TEMPORAIRE DU SYSTEME MERCREDI. NEANMOINS, LA PRESENCE D'AIR TRES SEC
EN PERIPHERIE IMMEDIATE DU SYSTEME REND CETTE EVOLUTION FRAGILE,
D'AUTANT QUE LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT REPARTIR A LA HAUSSE A PARTIR DE
JEUDI. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER AU MOINS AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JUSQU'A JEUDI MATIN, AVEC UN POSSIBLE
PASSAGE EN FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE MERCREDI, COMME SUGGERE PAR LE
MODELE EUROPEEN IFS. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE TALWEG DEVRAIT SE DECALER
VERS L'EST, EXPOSANT LE SYSTEME A UN ENVIRONNEMENT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COUPLE A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND, CE QUI DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DU
SYSTEME EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 82.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75

24H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 185

72H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 185

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/02 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING CB TOPS (-75/-80C). THE CURVED
BAND PATTERN HAS SHOWN FLUCTUATIONS, BECOMING MORE ASSERTIVE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY ON THE LAST IMAGES, BUT WITHOUT ANY PARTICULARLY
LONG-LASTING STRUCTURE. IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY DECREASING SATCON AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES, THE RECENT STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS AND IMPROVEMENT
OF SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 12UTC LEAD US TO KEEP THE INTENSITY AT
45 KT, WHILE WAITING FOR FURTHER OBJECTIVE DATA.

A SLOW AND HESITANT NORTHWARD TRACK IS CONFIRMED UNTIL THURSDAY,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK AND CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. FROM
FRIDAY, DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING, THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TRACK
WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WINDS FLOW. THE DETAIL OF
THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN CONNECTION WITH UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA BENEFITS FROM WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER A
MID TO HIGH TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN A RATHER ATYPICAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
A CYCLONIC SYSTEM. THIS REDUCED SHEAR AS WELL AS THE IMPROVEMENT OF
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY COULD FAVOUR SLIGHT
TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION AROUND WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE
PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE SYSTEM'S IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY MAKES
THIS EVOLUTION SOMEHOW FRAGILE, ESPECIALLY AS WIND SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY. THUS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST AT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A POSSIBLE PEAK AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE
ON WEDNESDAY, AS SUGGESTED BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL IFS. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD, EXPOSING THE
SYSTEM TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED
WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE FINAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291213
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 29/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 82.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/30 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/30 AT 12 UTC:
20.0 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290720
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.8 S / 82.6 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 85

24H: 30/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 55

36H: 30/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 75

48H: 31/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65

60H: 31/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 01/04/2022 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2022 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 03/04/2022 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE
EST DEVENUE UN PEU PLUS ABOUTIE QUE LA NUIT DERNIERE, S'ENROULANT SUR
PLUS D'UN DEMI-TOUR AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DEVENANT PROGRESSIVEMENT UN
PEU MOINS CISAILLEE, CONDUISANT DONC A UNE LEGERE HAUSSE DE L'ANALYSE
DVORAK. UNE PASSE SMOS A 0052Z MONTRE PAR AILLEURS DES VENTS A 49 KT
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. LES DONNEES ASCAT PARTIELLES ENTRE 03 ET
04Z, PASSANT UNIQUEMENT SUR LA BORDURE EST DE LA CIRCULATION,
MONTRENT DES VENTS JUSQU'A 42 KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CELA
INDIQUE QUE DEPUIS LA NUIT DERNIERE ET JUSQU'A MAINTENANT, LE SYSTEME
EST A LA LIMITE ENTRE LES STADES DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ET DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. L'INTENSITE RESTE ESTIMEE A 45 KT, TOUJOURS
AU-DESSUS DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK ET DU SATCON. IL N'EST PAS EXCLU QUE
DES POINTES LOCALES A 50 KT SOIENT PRESENTES DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST.

LA TRAJECTOIRE EST EN TRAIN D'EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE VERS LE NORD ET VA
RESTER SUR CETTE DIRECTION GENERALE JUSQU'A MERCREDI-JEUDI, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS FAIBLES ET CONTRADICTOIRES. A PARTIR
DE VENDREDI, EN RAISON D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF DU SYSTEME,
LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS VERS L'OUEST DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE. UNE INCERTITUDE ASSEZ MARQUEE PERSISTE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE EN LIEN AVEC L'INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME, NOTAMMENT D'ICI JEUDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, HALIMA BENEFICIE D'UNE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT
(SEULEMENT 10 A 15 KT CE MARDI) QUI DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A
MERCREDI EN MILIEU DE JOURNEE, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CIRCULE SOUS UN
TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT ATYPIQUE
POUR UN PHENOMENE CYCLONIQUE. SI LE CISAILLEMENT BAISSE ET QUE LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE S'AMELIORE D'ICI JEUDI, DE L'AIR TRES SEC RESTE
PAR CONTRE PRESENT EN PERIPHERIE IMMEDIATE DU SYSTEME. COMPTE TENU DE
LA FAIBLESSE ATTENDUE DU DEPLACEMENT ET DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST, LES PROBABILITES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION
SIGNIFICATIVES SONT ASSEZ FAIBLES MAIS NE PEUVENT ETRE COMPLETEMENT
EXCLUES. LA PREVISION CMRS TABLE SUR UN PLATEAU DE L'INTENSITE AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 36H MAIS DES FLUCTUATIONS SONT PROBABLES SUR
CETTE PERIODE (PREVISION PLUS INCERTAINE QUE LA NORMALE). A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI SOIR, LE TALWEG DEVRAIT SE DECALER VERS L'EST, EXPOSANT LE
SYSTEME A UN ENVIRONNEMENT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE COUPLE A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DU
SYSTEME EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290720
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 82.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

60H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/03 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS
BECOME A BIT MORE COMPLETE THAN LAST NIGHT, WRAPPING MORE THAN HALF
WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN ALSO HINTS AT A SLIGHTLY
LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS LEADS TO A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS. A 0052Z SMOS PASS SHOWS WINDS REACHING UP
TO 49 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA BETWEEN 03
AND 04Z, WHICH ONLY SAMPLED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION, SHOW
WINDS UP TO 42 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS INDICATES THAT
SINCE LAST NIGHT AND UNTIL NOW, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN AT THE LIMIT
BETWEEN THE STAGES OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM. THE INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT, STILL ABOVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS AND SATCON. LOCAL WINDS UP TO 50 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.

HALIMA'S TRACK IS CURRENTLY MAKING A NORTHWARD TURN AND WILL REMAIN
ON THIS GENERAL DIRECTION UNTIL WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK AND CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. FROM FRIDAY, DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING, THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD IN
THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WINDS FLOW. THERE IS STILL QUITE A HIGH
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM DECREASE
WIND SHEAR (ONLY 10 TO 15 KT THIS TUESDAY) WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER A MID TO HIGH
TROPOSPHERE TROUGH IN A RATHER ATYPICAL ENVIRONMENT FOR A CYCLONIC
SYSTEM. ON THE ONE HAND, WHILE SHEAR REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE IN THE
SHORT TERM AND OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY INCREASES, ON THE
OTHER HAND SOME VERY DRY AIR REMAINS PRESENT IN THE IMMEDIATE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT AND
THE PERSISTENCE OF SLIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR, THE PROBABILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS QUITE LOW BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST EXPECTS A PLATEAU OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS BUT SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THIS PERIOD (THE
FORECAST'S UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY ABOVE NORMAL). FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD, EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR FROM THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE
SYSTEM'S FINAL WEAKENING BY THE WEEK-END.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290628
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.8 S / 82.6 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 85

24H: 30/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 55

36H: 30/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 75

48H: 31/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65

60H: 31/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 01/04/2022 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2022 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 03/04/2022 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE
EST DEVENUE UN PEU PLUS ABOUTIE QUE LA NUIT DERNIERE, S'ENROULANT SUR
PLUS D'UN DEMI-TOUR AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DEVENANT PROGRESSIVEMENT UN
PEU MOINS CISAILLEE, CONDUISANT DONC A UNE LEGERE HAUSSE DE L'ANALYSE
DVORAK. UNE PASSE SMOS A 0052Z MONTRE PAR AILLEURS DES VENTS A 49 KT
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. LES DONNEES ASCAT PARTIELLES ENTRE 03 ET
04Z, PASSANT UNIQUEMENT SUR LA BORDURE EST DE LA CIRCULATION,
MONTRENT DES VENTS JUSQU'A 42 KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CELA
INDIQUE QUE DEPUIS LA NUIT DERNIERE ET JUSQU'A MAINTENANT, LE SYSTEME
EST A LA LIMITE ENTRE LES STADES DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ET DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. L'INTENSITE RESTE ESTIMEE A 45 KT, TOUJOURS
AU-DESSUS DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK ET DU SATCON. IL N'EST PAS EXCLU QUE
DES POINTES LOCALES A 50 KT SOIENT PRESENTES DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST.

LA TRAJECTOIRE EST EN TRAIN D'EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE VERS LE NORD ET VA
RESTER SUR CETTE DIRECTION GENERALE JUSQU'A MERCREDI-JEUDI, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS FAIBLES ET CONTRADICTOIRES. A PARTIR
DE VENDREDI, EN RAISON D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF DU SYSTEME,
LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS VERS L'OUEST DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE. UNE INCERTITUDE ASSEZ MARQUEE PERSISTE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE EN LIEN AVEC L'INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME, NOTAMMENT D'ICI JEUDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, HALIMA BENEFICIE D'UNE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT
(SEULEMENT 10 A 15 KT CE MARDI) QUI DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A
MERCREDI EN MILIEU DE JOURNEE, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CIRCULE SOUS UN
TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT ATYPIQUE
POUR UN PHENOMENE CYCLONIQUE. SI LE CISAILLEMENT BAISSE ET QUE LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE S'AMELIORE D'ICI JEUDI, DE L'AIR TRES SEC RESTE
PAR CONTRE PRESENT EN PERIPHERIE IMMEDIATE DU SYSTEME. COMPTE TENU DE
LA FAIBLESSE ATTENDUE DU DEPLACEMENT ET DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST, LES PROBABILITES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION
SIGNIFICATIVES SONT ASSEZ FAIBLES MAIS NE PEUVENT ETRE COMPLETEMENT
EXCLUES. LA PREVISION CMRS TABLE SUR UN PLATEAU DE L'INTENSITE AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 36H MAIS DES FLUCTUATIONS SONT PROBABLES SUR
CETTE PERIODE (PREVISION PLUS INCERTAINE QUE LA NORMALE). A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI SOIR, LE TALWEG DEVRAIT SE DECALER VERS L'EST, EXPOSANT LE
SYSTEME A UN ENVIRONNEMENT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE COUPLE A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DU
SYSTEME EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 82.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

60H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/03 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS
BECOME A BIT MORE COMPLETE THAN LAST NIGHT, WRAPPING MORE THAN HALF
WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN ALSO HINTS AT A SLIGHTLY
LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS LEADS TO A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS. A 0052Z SMOS PASS SHOWS WINDS REACHING UP
TO 49 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA BETWEEN 03
AND 04Z, WHICH ONLY SAMPLED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION, SHOW
WINDS UP TO 42 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS INDICATES THAT
SINCE LAST NIGHT AND UNTIL NOW, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN AT THE LIMIT
BETWEEN THE STAGES OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM. THE INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT, STILL ABOVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS AND SATCON. LOCAL WINDS UP TO 50 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.

HALIMA'S TRACK IS CURRENTLY MAKING A NORTHWARD TURN AND WILL REMAIN
ON THIS GENERAL DIRECTION UNTIL WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK AND CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. FROM FRIDAY, DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING, THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD IN
THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WINDS FLOW. THERE IS STILL QUITE A HIGH
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM DECREASE
WIND SHEAR (ONLY 10 TO 15 KT THIS TUESDAY) WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER A MID TO HIGH
TROPOSPHERE TROUGH IN A RATHER ATYPICAL ENVIRONMENT FOR A CYCLONIC
SYSTEM. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE IN THE SHORT TERM, ON THE
OTHER HAND SOME VERY DRY AIR REMAINS PRESENT IN THE IMMEDIATE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT AND
THE PERSISTENCE OF SLIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR, THE PROBABILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS QUITE LOW BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST EXPECTS A PLATEAU OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS BUT SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THIS PERIOD (THE
FORECAST'S UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY ABOVE NORMAL). FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD, EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR FROM THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE
SYSTEM'S FINAL WEAKENING BY THE WEEK-END.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290625
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 29/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 82.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/29 AT 18 UTC:
21.0 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/30 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290614
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 29/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 82.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/29 AT 12 UTC:
21.6 S / 82.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/30 AT 00 UTC:
20.7 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 82.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 82.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.4S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.7S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.2S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.5S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.8S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 82.5E.
29MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1040 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290038
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1 S / 82.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 120

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 30/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 0

36H: 30/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 0

48H: 31/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 0

60H: 31/03/2022 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 120 NO: 0

72H: 01/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 120 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2022 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 03/04/2022 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HALIMA S'EST PLUTOT STABILISEE DEPUIS
LES SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT OBSERVES EN SOIREE D'HIER. UNE BANDE
INCURVEE S'ENROULE SUR UN DEMI-TOUR SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES
ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES RECENTES SUPPORTENT CETTE STABILISATION DE
L'INTENSITE QUI EST DONC LAISSEE A 45 KT.

COMME ENVISAGE PRECEDEMMENT LA TRAJECTOIRE S'EST ORIENTEE A L'EST EN
COURS DE NUIT APRES LE DEPLACEMENT NORD-EST OBSERVE EN SOIREE. LA
TENDANCE GENERALE VA RESTE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU NORD JUSQU'A MERCREDI-JEUDI EN PRESENCE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS FAIBLES ET POTENTIELLEMENT CONTRADICTOIRES. UNE
INCERTITUDE PERSISTE SUR CETTE PORTION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DEPENDANTE
DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. LES DEUX DERNIERS RESEAUX DES MODELES
AMERICAINS ET EUROPEENS CONVERGENT UN PEU PLUS QUE PRECEDEMMENT ET
C'EST DONC LA SOLUTION PRIVILEGIEE PAR LE CMRS.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CISAILLEMENTS PROFOND ET MOYEN ONT
SENSIBLEMENT BAISSE CETTE NUIT PASSANT DE 25 KT A PRES DE 15 KT POUR
LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND. CETTE BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT EXPLIQUE
PROBABLEMENT LE MAINTIEN CONSTATE DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE.
HALIMA EVOLUE MAINTENANT SOUS UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO DANS
UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT ATYPIQUE POUR UN PHENOMENE CYCLONIQUE. SI LE
CISAILLEMENT BAISSE, DE L'AIR TRES SEC RESTE PAR CONTRE PRESENT EN
PERIPHERIE IMMEDIATE DU SYSTEME. COMPTE TENU DE LA FAIBLESSE ATTENDUE
DU DEPLACEMENT ET DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
OUEST, LES PROBABILITES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVES SONT A
LA BAISSE ... MAIS NE PEUVENT ETRE COMPLETEMENT EXCLUES. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE TABLE SUR UN PLATEAU DE L'INTENSITE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 36H MAIS DES FLUCTUATIONS SONT PROBABLES SUR CETTE
PERIODE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR, LE TALWEG DEVRAIT SE DECALER VERS
L'EST, EXPOSANT LE SYSTEME A UN ENVIRONNEMENT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT PLUS
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COUPLE A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND A PARTIR DE JEUDI. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF EST ENVISAGE
A PARTIR DE LA.

DANS CE CONTEXTE ATYPIQUE, LA PREVISION RESTE GLOBALEMENT PLUS
INCERTAINE QUE LA NORMALE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 82.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/03 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0+

THE HALIMA CLOUD PATTERN HAS RATHER STABILIZED SINCE THE SIGNS OF
WEAKENING OBSERVED DURING YESTERDAY EVENING. A CURVED BAND IS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RECENT SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES SUPPORT THIS STABILIZATION OF THE INTENSITY WHICH IS
THEREFORE LEFT AT 45 KT.

AS ENVISAGED BEFORE, THE TRACK HAS BEEN ORIENTED TO THE EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AFTER THE NORTHEAST SHIFT OBSERVED DURING THE EVENING. THE
GENERAL TREND WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW TRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION UNTIL WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND
POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS ON
THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE
LAST TWO RUNS OF THE AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONVERGE A LITTLE
MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY AND IT IS THEREFORE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BY
THE CMRS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DEEP AND MEDIUM SHEARS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED LAST NIGHT FROM 25 KT TO NEARLY 15 KT FOR THE DEEP SHEAR.
THIS DECREASE OF SHEAR PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE OBSERVED MAINTENANCE OF
THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION. HALIMA IS NOW EVOLVING UNDER A MEDIUM TO
UPPER LEVELS TROUGH IN A RATHER ATYPICAL ENVIRONMENT FOR A TC. IF THE
SHEAR IS DECREASING, VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ON THE OTHER HAND PRESENT
IN THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOTION AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A WESTERLY SHEAR, THE
PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION ARE DECREASING... BUT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY EXCLUDED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
PLATEAU OF INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 36H BUT FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD, EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR
FROM THURSDAY. A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THEN ON.

IN THIS ATYPICAL CONTEXT, THE FORECAST REMAINS GLOBALLY MORE
UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290012
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 29/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 82.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/29 AT 12 UTC:
21.6 S / 82.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/30 AT 00 UTC:
20.7 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 281809
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 81.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/29 AT 06 UTC:
21.6 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/29 AT 18 UTC:
21.2 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 22.2S 81.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 81.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.9S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.4S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.6S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 81.8E.
28MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1030 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND
291500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281229
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 81.1 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/03/2022 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 35

24H: 29/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 35

36H: 30/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 35

48H: 30/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 35

60H: 31/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 35

72H: 31/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 02/04/2022 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
RENFORCEE EN REMONTANT EN AMONT DU CISAILLEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
NORD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION, REPLACANT LE CENTRE DE SURFACE
DAVANTAGE SOUS LA CONVECTION. LE SYSTEME EST AINSI PASSE D'UNE
CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE A UNE CONFIGURATION S'APPARENTANT A UNE BANDE
INCURVEE S'ENROULANT SUR ENVIRON 3 QUARTS DE TOUR, MAIS RESTANT PLUS
ACTIVE SUR LA DROITE DU CISAILLEMENT, QUI RESTE BIEN PRESENT. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1110Z CONFIRME CETTE EVOLUTION. LE SYSTEME
SEMBLE DONC RESISTER ASSEZ BIEN AU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE SECTEUR
OUEST A OUEST-NORD-OUEST DE L'ORDRE DE 20 A 25 KT, ET LE CISAILLEMENT
DE MOYENNE TROPO EST EN LEGERE BAISSE, COMME INDIQUE PAR LES ANALYSES
DU CIMSS. L'INTENSITE D'HALIMA EST AINSI MAINTENUE A 50KT COMME A
06UTC, RESTANT PLUS HAUTE QUE L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ET QUE LE
SATCON, MAIS PRENANT EN COMPTE LES DONNEES ASCAT DE CE MATIN ET LA
LEGERE AMELIORATION DE STRUCTURE OBSERVEE.

HALIMA RESTE JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE
L'EST ENTRE UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD ET UN TALWEG DE
MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO AU SUD. A PARTIR DE MARDI, HALIMA VA RALENTIR
SA COURSE EN EFFECTUANT UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD EN
PRESENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS FAIBLES ET POTENTIELLEMENT
CONTRADICTOIRES. UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE PERSISTE SUR CETTE PORTION DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE ENTRE MARDI ET JEUDI, QUI SERA DEPENDANTE DE LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE, ELLE-MEME TRES INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN ENTRE LES PREVISIONS
D'ENSEMBLE ET DETERMINISTES DU MODELE EUROPEEN IFS AINSI QUE LE
MODELE ANGLAIS UKMO, QUI SEMBLENT MIEUX PRENDRE EN COMPTE L'INTENSITE
ET LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT QUI ETAIT ATTENDU CE LUNDI,
EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, N'A FINALEMENT PAS EU LIEU,
PROBABLEMENT GRACE AU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DANS LA MEME DIRECTION
QUE LE VECTEUR CISAILLEMENT. SACHANT QUE CE DERNIER EST EN TRAIN DE
DIMINUER, IL N'EST PLUS PREVU D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PARTICULIER A TRES
COURT TERME. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LES GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DIVERGENT
FORTEMENT, AVEC DEUX OPTIONS QUI SE DESSINENT: AFFAIBLISSEMENT
JUSQU'A DISSIPATION OU RE-INTENSIFICATION TEMPORAIRE GRACE A UN
CISAILLEMENT PLUS FAIBLE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT EN
MILIEU DE SEMANIE. LE CMRS OPTE PLUTOT POUR CE SECOND SCENARIO EN LE
LISSANT UN PEU, SUGGERANT UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION D'ICI MERCREDI
OU JEUDI. SI LA PRESENTE PREVISION MONTE DANS LE HAUT DU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL N'EST CEPENDANT
PAS A EXCLURE. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEFINITIF DEVRAIT S'ENCLENCHER EN RAISON D'UNE NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ADVECTANT MASSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC A L'APLOMB DU CENTRE
DU SYSTEME.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 81.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/04/02 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED UPSHEAR
IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION, ENABLING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BECOME A BIT MORE CENTERED BELOW THE SYSTEM'S
CONVECTION AREA. THE SYSTEM HAS THUS CHANGED FROM A SHEARED PATTERN
TO A PATTERN RESEMBLING A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND ABOUT 0.75 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL, BUT REMAINS MORE ACTIVE TO THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE
SHEAR, WHICH IS STILL VERY PRESENT. THE 1110Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
CONFIRMS THIS EVOLUTION. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO RESIST QUITE WELL TO THE
DEEP WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 TO 25
KT, AND THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASING, AS INDICATED
BY THE CIMSS ANALYSIS. HALIMA'S INTENSITY IS THUS MAINTAINED AT 50KT,
LIKE AT 06UTC, REMAINING HIGHER THAN BOTH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AND SATCON, BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS MORNING'S ASCAT DATA AND THE
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF STRUCTURE OBSERVED.

HALIMA REMAINS UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING ON AN EASTWARD TRACK BETWEEN A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID TO HIGH TROPOSPHERE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, HALIMA WILL SLOW DOWN ITS
COURSE AND MAKE A GENERAL NORTHWARD TURN IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND
POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS PART OF THE TRACK BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE FORECAST INTENSITY, WHICH IS ITSELF VERY
UNCERTAIN. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO BETWEEN
THE ENSEMBLE EPS AND DETERMINIST IFS EUROPEAN FORECASTS AND THE
ENGLISH UKMO MODEL, WHICH SEEM TO BETTER TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY AND TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE WEAKENING THAT WAS EXPECTED THIS MONDAY,
LINKED TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS NOT HAPPENED, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR VECTOR. AS
IT IS CURRENTLY DECREASING, NO PARTICULAR FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. FROM TUESDAY, INTENSITY GUIDANCE
DIVERGES STRONGLY, WITH TWO MAIN OPTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM : PROLONGED
WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OR TEMPORARY RE-INTENSIFICATION THANKS TO
WEAKER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AROUND MID-WEEK. THE
RSMC'S FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SECOND OPTION, SUGGESTING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THURSDAY. WHILE THE PRESENT FORECAST CLIMBS UP
TO THE TOP OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
NOT RULED OUT. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A FINAL WEAKENING PHASE SHOULD
START DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR, BRINGING MASSIVE DRY AIR
INTRUSION OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 281206
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 81.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/29 AT 00 UTC:
22.2 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/29 AT 12 UTC:
21.4 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280632
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1 S / 80.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 60 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/03/2022 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 110

24H: 29/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 110

36H: 29/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 110

48H: 30/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 405 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 110

60H: 30/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 415 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 110

72H: 31/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2022 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 445 SO: 305 NO: 175

120H: 02/04/2022 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE MODEREE
S'EST MAINTENUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DE LA CIRCULATION TANDIS QUE
LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES DEVIENT PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSE SOUS L'EFFET
DU CISAILLEMENT. LES PASSES SCATTEROMETRIQUES DE LA MATINEE MONTRENT
LA PRESENCE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST
(48KT SUR L'ASCAT-C DE 0421Z, SACHANT QU'IL Y A SOUS-ESTIMATION DANS
CES GAMMES DE VENTS). PAR AILLEURS, LA STRUCTURE DES VENTS EST
DEVENUE UN PEU PLUS ASYMETRIQUE ET LEGEREMENT ALLONGEE SOUS L'EFFET
DU CISAILLEMENT. MALGRE UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DONNANT UN CI A 3.0
PENALISE PAR LA CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE DU SYSTEME, L'INTENSITE EST
BASEE SUR LES DONNEES ASCAT ET ESTIMEE A 50KT A 06UTC. PAR COHERENCE
ET CONTINUITE TEMPORELLE AVEC LES ANALYSES PRECEDENTES, L'INTENSITE
DU POINT DE 00UTC, QUI AVAIT ETE ESTIMEE A 45KT, A ETE RETOUCHEE A
50KT DANS LA BEST-TRACK.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HALIMA RESTE ACTUELLEMENT SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST ENTRE UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD ET UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO AU SUD. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, HALIMA VA RALENTIR SA COURSE EN EFFECTUANT UN VIRAGE
EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD EN PRESENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS FAIBLES
ET POTENTIELLEMENT CONTRADICTOIRES. DE L'INCERTITUDE PERSISTE SUR
CETTE PORTION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE QUI SERA DEPENDANTE DE LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DONNANT
UN PEU PLUS DE POIDS A LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND EST A SON MAXIMUM
ACTUELLEMENT, MAIS LE SYSTEME A RESISTE RELATIVEMENT BIEN JUSQU'A
PRESENT EN RAISON DE SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DANS LA DIRECTION DU
CISAILLEMENT. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT NEANMOINS SE POURSUIVRE CE
LUNDI ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER A SUBIR DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. LES
GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DIVERGENT FORTEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI. DEUX
OPTIONS SE DESSINENT: UNE POURSUITE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'A
DISSIPATION OU UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION PLUS OU MOINS TEMPORAIRE AVEC
UN SYSTEME BENEFICIANT D'UN CISAILLEMENT TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS FAIBLE
ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT. LE CMRS OPTE POUR UN COMPROMIS,
AVEC UN MAINTIEN AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE SUIVI D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF EN SECONDE PARTIE DE
SEMAINE.

HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 80.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110

24H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 110

36H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 110

48H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 405 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 110

60H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 415 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 110

72H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 445 SW: 305 NW: 175

120H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER BECOMES PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO WIND SHEAR. THIS
MORNING'S SCATTEROMETRIC DATA SHOW THE PRESENCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT (48KT ON THE 0421Z ASCAT-C, TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THAT THERE IS AN UNDERESTIMATION IN THESE WIND RANGES). ON
THE OTHER HAND, THE WIND STRUCTURE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ASYMMETRICAL
AND SLIGHTLY ELONGATED UNDER THE EFFECT OF SHEAR. DESPITE A DVORAK
ANALYSIS GIVING A CI OF 3.0 PENALIZED BY THE SYSTEM'S SHEARED
PATTERN, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
DATA AND ESTIMATED AT 50KT AT 06UTC. IN ORDER TO KEEP GOOD
CONSISTENCY AND TEMPORAL CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ANALYSES, THE
INTENSITY OF THE 00UTC ANALYSIS, WHICH WAS ESTIMATED AT 45KT, HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50KT IN THE BEST-TRACK.

HALIMA IS CURRENTLY ON AN EASTWARD TRACK BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID TO HIGH TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, HALIMA WILL SLOW DOWN WHILE MAKING A
TURN IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND
POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS ON
THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE GIVING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DEEP SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT ITS MAXIMUM, BUT
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELATIVELY RESILIENT SO FAR BECAUSE OF ITS RAPID
MOVEMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
SHEAR-DRIVEN INTRUSIONS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY DIVERGENT FROM TUESDAY, WITH TWO MAIN OPTIONS :
A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OR A MORE OR LESS
TEMPORARY RE-INTENSIFICATION THANKS TO TEMPORARILY WEAKER SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THE RSMC OPTS FOR A COMPROMISE, KEEPING
THE SYSTEM AT TROPICAL STORM STAGE UNTIL MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280616
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 80.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/28 AT 18 UTC:
22.1 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/29 AT 06 UTC:
21.5 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.3S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.3S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.3S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 80.1E.
28MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 973
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND
290300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280037
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.9 S / 79.8 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 280 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/03/2022 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 85

24H: 29/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

36H: 29/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55

48H: 30/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75

60H: 30/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 31/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 120 NO: 0

120H: 02/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A NETTEMENT
FAIBLI. ELLE PERSISTE ENCORE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST MAIS LES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT RECHAUFFEES DEPUIS 18Z. LES PASSES SSMIS DE
2238Z ET 2311Z MONTRE MALGRE TOUT QUE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES EN 37COLOR EST ENCORE ASSEZ MARQUEE. AU VU DES DERNIERES
ANALYSES SATCON ET DE CES ELEMENTS, L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 45KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HALIMA RESTE ACTUELLEMENT SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST ENTRE UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD ET UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO AU SUD.
AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN, HALIMA VA RALENTIR PROGRESSIVEMENT SA COURSE,
EN CONTOURNANT UNE LARGE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POSITIONNEE
ENTRE 10S-20S ET 60E-80E. AU-DELA , HALIMA DEVRAIT ENCORE RALENTIR EN
DERIVANT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD EN PRESENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
FAIBLES ET POTENTIELLEMENT CONTRADICTOIRES (DORSALE PRESENTE AU
NORD-EST AMENANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD-OUEST A NORD). DE
L'INCERTITUDE PERSISTE SUR CETTE PORTION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE SERA DEPENDANTE DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS EXCLUANT CERTAINS MODELES COMME
LE GFS. LES DERNIERS RUNS AMERICAINS ISOLES DE LA PLUPART DES AUTRES
MODELES, NE SEMBLAIENT PAS COHERENTS AVEC LES EVOLUTIONS RECENTES DU
SYSTEME RENDANT MOINS CREDIBLE LEUR PREVISION.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE FAVORISENT
PLUS VRAIMENT UNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. LE CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND EST EN HAUSSE MAIS LE SYSTEME RESISTE ASSEZ BIEN
VRAISEMBLABLEMENT EN RAISON DE SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DANS LA
DIRECTION DU CISAILLEMENT. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT NEANMOINS SE
POURSUIVRE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER A SUBIR DES INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. LES
GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DIVERGENT A PARTIR DE MARDI. DEUX OPTIONS SE
DESSINENT: UNE POURSUITE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'A DISSIPATION OU
UNE RE-INTESIFICATION PLUS OU MOINS TEMPORAIRE AVEC UN SYSTEME
BENEFICIANT D'UN CISAILLEMENT TEMPORAIREMENT ATTENUE SOUS UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE LE CMRS OPTE POUR UN COMPROMIS AVEC UN MAINTIEN AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE EN LIEN AVEC LA
BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT (ET DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ CHAUDES), SUIVI D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

LA TEMPETE TROPICALE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 79.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

120H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLEARLY WEAKENED. IT
STILL PERSISTS IN THE SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED UP SINCE 18Z. THE 2238Z AND 2311Z SSMIS PASS SHOW NEVERTHELESS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN 37COLOR IS STILL QUITE MARKED. IN
VIEW OF THE LAST SATCON ANALYSIS AND OF THESE ELEMENTS, THE INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 45KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA REMAINS ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID TO HIGH LEVELS
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. TODAY AND TOMORROW, HALIMA WILL PROGRESSIVELY
SLOW DOWN, ROUNDING A LARGE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE POSITIONED
BETWEEN 10S-20S AND 60S-80S. BEYOND THAT, HALIMA SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AGAIN BY DRIFTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK AND POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (RIDGE PRESENT IN
THE NORTHEAST DRIVING A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW).
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THIS PART OF THE TRACK AND THE TRAJECTORY
WILL DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS EXCLUDING SOME MODELS LIKE GFS. THE LATEST GFS RUNS,
DIVERGING FROM MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, DID NOT SEEM CONSISTENT WITH
THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF HALIMA, MAKING IT LESS BELIEVABLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY
FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION ANYMORE. THE DEEP SHEAR IS
INCREASING BUT THE SYSTEM IS RESISTING QUITE WELL PROBABLY BECAUSE OF
ITS MOTION IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IMPACTED BY DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS IN THE MID LEVELS, DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
GUIDELINES DIVERGE FROM TUESDAY. TWO OPTIONS ARE EMERGING: THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OR A MORE OR LESS
TEMPORARY RE-INTESIFICATION WITH A SYSTEM BENEFITING FROM LOWER SHEAR
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE RSMC FAVORS A COMPROMISE WITH THE
MAINTENANCE AT THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE UP TO WEDNESDAY IN RELATION
WITH THE DECREASE OF SHEAR (AND STILL QUITE WARM WATERS), FOLLOWED BY
A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING LATER THIS WEEK.

TROPICAL STORM HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO POPULATED AREAS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280018
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 79.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/28 AT 12 UTC:
22.0 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/29 AT 00 UTC:
21.8 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271848
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.4 S / 79.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 280 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75

24H: 28/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85

36H: 29/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

48H: 29/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55

60H: 30/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 30/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 120 NO: 0

120H: 01/04/2022 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

DEPUIS 12Z PLUSIEURS BURSTS DE CONVECTION SE SONT SUCCEDES DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT MODERE A
FORT DE NORD-OUEST. LES IMAGES SSMIS DE FIN DE JOURNEE (1324Z ET
1123Z) MONTRENT LA PERSISTANCE D'UN OEIL MAL DEFINI EN 89COLOR MEME
SI LA STRUCTURE N'EST PAS PRESENTE SUR LES 37COLOR. EN L'ABSENCE DE
PASSE ASCAT PROCHE DU COEUR, L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE D'HALIMA RESTE UN
PEU INCERTAINE. AU VU DES DERNIERES ANALYSES DU SATCON EN ACCORD AVEC
LES ELEMENTS PRECEDENTS, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 50KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HALIMA RESTE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST ENTRE UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD ET UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO AU SUD. EN PREMIERE PARTIE
DE SEMAINE, HALIMA VA RALENTIR PROGRESSIVEMENT SA COURSE, EN
CONTOURNANT UNE LARGE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POSITIONNEE
ENTRE 10S-20S ET 60E-80E. AU-DELA , HALIMA DEVRAIT ENCORE RALENTIR EN
DERIVANT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD EN PRESENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
FAIBLES ET POTENTIELLEMENT CONTRADICTOIRES (DORSALE PRESENTE AU
NORD-EST AMENANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD-OUEST A NORD). UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE EXISTE ALORS SUR CETTE PORTION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE ET SERA
DEPENDANTE DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST
BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS EXCLUANT CERTAINS MODELES COMME LE GFS ET SE
RETROUVE DONC PLUS A L'EST QUE LORS DU PRECEDENT RESEAU. LES DERNIERS
RUNS AMERICAINS ISOLES DE LA PLUPART DES AUTRES MODELES, NE
SEMBLAIENT PAS COHERENTS AVEC LES EVOLUTIONS RECENTES DU SYSTEME
RENDANT MOINS CREDIBLE LEUR PREVISION.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE FAVORISENT
PLUS VRAIMENT UNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. LE CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND EST EN HAUSSE MAIS LE SYSTEME RESISTE ASSEZ BIEN
VRAISEMBLABLEMENT EN RAISON DE SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DANS LA
DIRECTION DU CISAILLEMENT. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT NEANMOINS SE
POURSUIVRE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER A SUBIR DES INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. LES
GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DIVERGENT A PARTIR DE MARDI. DEUX OPTIONS SE
DESSINENT: UNE POURSUITE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'A DISSIPATION OU
UNE RE-INTESIFICATION PLUS OU MOINS TEMPORAIRE AVEC UN SYSTEME
BENEFICIANT D'UN CISAILLEMENT TEMPORAIREMENT ATTENUE SOUS UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE LE CMRS OPTE POUR UN COMPROMIS AVEC UN MAINTIEN AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE EN LIEN AVEC LA
BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT (ET DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ CHAUDES), SUIVI D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

LA TEMPETE TROPICALE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 79.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75

24H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

36H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

120H: 2022/04/01 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

SINCE 12Z SEVERAL SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO THE MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. LATE DAY SSMIS IMAGES (1324Z AND 1123Z)
SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OF A POORLY DEFINED EYE IN 89COLOR EVEN IF THE
STRUCTURE IS ABSENT ON 37COLOR. IN THE ABSENCE OF ASCAT PASS CLOSE TO
THE CORE TONIGHT, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF HALIMA REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. IN VIEW OF THE LAST SATCON ANALYSIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ELEMENTS, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA REMAINS ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID TO HIGH LEVELS
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, HALIMA WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLOW
DOWN, ROUNDING A LARGE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE POSITIONED BETWEEN
10S-20S AND 60S-80S. BEYOND THAT, HALIMA SHOULD SLOW DOWN AGAIN BY
DRIFTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND
POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (RIDGE PRESENT IN THE
NORTHEAST DRIVING A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW). A
STRONG UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THIS PART OF THE TRACK AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS EXCLUDING SOME MODELS LIKE GFS AND IS THUS EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS RSMC FORECAST. THE LATEST GFS RUNS, DIVERGING FROM MOST OF
THE OTHER MODELS, DID NOT SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT EVOLUTION
OF HALIMA, MAKING IT LESS BELIEVABLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY
FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION ANYMORE. THE DEEP SHEAR IS
INCREASING BUT THE SYSTEM IS RESISTING QUITE WELL PROBABLY BECAUSE OF
ITS MOTION IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IMPACTED BY DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS IN THE MID LEVELS, DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
GUIDELINES DIVERGE FROM TUESDAY. TWO OPTIONS ARE EMERGING: THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OR A MORE OR LESS
TEMPORARY RE-INTESIFICATION WITH A SYSTEM BENEFITING FROM LOWER SHEAR
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE RSMC FAVORS A COMPROMISE WITH THE
MAINTENANCE AT THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE UP TO WEDNESDAY IN RELATION
WITH THE DECREASE OF SHEAR (AND STILL QUITE WARM WATERS), FOLLOWED BY
A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IN THE LATE THIS WEEK.

TROPICAL STORM HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO POPULATED AREAS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271826
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 79.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/28 AT 06 UTC:
21.9 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/28 AT 18 UTC:
21.9 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 77.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 120

24H: 28/03/2022 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 95

36H: 29/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 95

48H: 29/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

60H: 30/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

72H: 30/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 0

120H: 01/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- ET CI=3.5

DEPUIS 08Z, UN PUISSANT BURST DE CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST MIS EN
PLACE PRES DU CENTRE A PARTIR DU QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. CETTE ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE NOTABLE SEMBLE S'ENTRETENIR AVEC L'APPARITION DE NOUVEAUX
FOYERS SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES
COMPLEMENTAIRES POUR PRECISER L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE, CELLE-CI EST
LAISSEE A 50 KT COMPTE TENU DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE ET EN ETANT
LEGEREMENT AU-DESSUS DU SATCON (47 KT A 0826Z, VENTS 1-MIN).

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HALIMA RESTE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE ONDULANT
ENTRE L'EST-SUD-EST ET LE SUD-EST ENTRE UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD ET UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO AU SUD. EN
PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE, HALIMA VA RALENTIR PROGRESSIVEMENT SA
COURSE, EN CONTOURNANT UNE LARGE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
POSITIONNEE ENTRE 10S-20S ET 60E-80E. AU-DELA , HALIMA DEVRAIT ENCORE
RALENTIR EN DERIVANT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD EN PRESENCE DE
FLUX DIRECTEURS FAIBLES ET POTENTIELLEMENT CONTRADICTOIRES (DORSALE
PRESENTE AU NORD-EST AMENANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD-OUEST A NORD).
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE EXISTE ALORS SUR CETTE PORTION DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE ET SERA DEPENDANTE DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE FAVORISENT
PLUS VRAIMENT UNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. LE CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND EST EN HAUSSE MAIS LE SYSTEME RESISTE ASSEZ BIEN (PAS DE TILT
NET SUR L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE) VRAISEMBLABLEMENT EN RAISON DE SON CAP
QUI SE FAIT DE FACON PARALLELE AU CISAILLEMENT ACTUELLEMENT. UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT NEANMOINS SE POURSUIVRE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
CONTINUER A SUBIR DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. LES GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DIVERGENT A
PARTIR DE MARDI. DEUX OPTIONS SE DESSINENT: UNE POURSUITE DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'A DISSIPATION OU UNE RE-INTESIFICATION PLUS
OU MOINS TEMPORAIRE AVEC UN SYSTEME BENEFICIANT D'UN CISAILLEMENT
TEMPORAIREMENT ATTENUE SOUS UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET DANS UN SECOND
TEMPS D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS EST PRESERVANT PLUS DURABLEMENT LE
SYSTEME DES CONDITIONS CISAILLEES (SCENARIO UKMO/00Z, NVGM/00Z). LE
CMRS OPTE POUR UN COMPROMIS AVEC UN MAINTIEN AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE EN LIEN AVEC LA BAISSE DE
CISAILLEMENT (ET DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ CHAUDES), SUIVI D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 77.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120

24H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95

36H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 0

120H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- AND CI=3.5

SINCE 08Z, A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SET UP NEAR THE
CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS NOTABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINED WITH THE APPEARANCE OF NEW BURTS ON THE LAST
IMAGES. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL DATA TO REFINE THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE, THIS ONE IS LEFT AT 50 KT CONSIDERING THE RECENT EVOLUTION
AND BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SATCON (47 KT AT 0826Z, 1-MIN WINDS).

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA REMAINS ON AN UNDULATING TRACK BETWEEN
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND A MID TO HIGH TROPO TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IN THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK, HALIMA WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLOW DOWN, ROUNDING A LARGE
RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE POSITIONED BETWEEN 10S-20S AND 60S-80S.
BEYOND THAT, HALIMA SHOULD SLOW DOWN AGAIN BY DRIFTING IN A GENERAL
NORTHWARD DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND POTENTIALLY
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (RIDGE PRESENT IN THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH STEERING FLOW). A STRONG UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
THIS PART OF THE TRACK AND WILL DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY
FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION ANYMORE. THE DEEP SHEAR IS
INCREASING BUT THE SYSTEM IS RESISTING QUITE WELL (NO CLEAR TILT ON
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY) PROBABLY BECAUSE OF ITS HEADING WHICH IS
CURRENTLY PARALLEL TO THE SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, A WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECTED TO INTRUSIONS
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, DUE TO THE EFFECT OF SHEAR. THE
INTENSITY GUIDELINES DIVERGE FROM TUESDAY. TWO OPTIONS ARE EMERGING:
A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OR A MORE OR LESS
TEMPORARY RE-INTESIFICATION WITH A SYSTEM BENEFITING FROM A
TEMPORARILY ATTENUATED SHEAR UNDER AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH AND IN A
SECOND TIME FROM A MORE EASTERN TRACK PRESERVING THE SYSTEM MORE
DURABLY FROM THE SHEARED CONDITIONS (SCENARIO UKMO/00Z, NVGM/00Z).
THE CMRS OPTS FOR A COMPROMISE WITH A MAINTENANCE AT THE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE UP TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN CONNECTION WITH THE
DECREASE OF SHEAR (AND STILL QUITE WARM WATERS), FOLLOWED BY A
DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

CYCLONE HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO POPULATED AREAS DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 21.0S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 78.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.8S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.1S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.8S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.2S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 78.6E.
27MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 895 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270642
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 76.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 140

24H: 28/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 140

36H: 28/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 95

48H: 29/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 29/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85

72H: 30/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100

120H: 01/04/2022 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ ET CI=3.5

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION DE HALIMA CONTINUE DE
FLUCTUER SENSIBLEMENT A L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE SOUS L'EFFET D'UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS HOSTILE AU MAINTIEN D'UN PHENOMENE
CYCLONIQUE (CISAILLEMENT ET INTRUSION D'AIR SEC PRINCIPALEMENT). LES
VELLEITES DE RECONSTITUTION D'UN COEUR INTERNE VISIBLE PAR MOMENT SUR
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES (COMME SUR L'AMSR2 DE LA NUIT DERNIERE) NE
PERVIENNENT PAS A PERSISTER. L'INTENSITE A 50 KT EST BASEE SUR UN BON
ACCORD ENTRE LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES AINSI QUE LES
DONNEES DES PASS ASCAT DE 0348Z ET 0441Z SUGGERANT LA PRESENCE DE
VENT DE FORCE TEMPETE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HALIMA A SENSIBLEMENT REDRESSE EN DIRECTION
DE L'EST SUR LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES ENTRE UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD ET UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO AU SUD. A
PARTIR DU DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, HALIMA VA RALENTIR
PROGRESSIVEMENT SA COURSE, DU AU DECALAGE VERS L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET AU GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSABLE SUBTROPICAL AU
SUD-OUEST, IMPULSANT AINSI UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST-NORD-EST DANS
UN PREMIER TEMPS PUIS NORD-EST ENSUITE A PARTIR DE MARDI OU MERCREDI.
AU-DELA , HALIMA DEVRAIT NETTEMENT RALENTIR, SE RETROUVANT EN MARGE
LOINTAINE DES PRINCIPAUX ACTEURS SYNOPTIQUES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
ET DEVRAIT INCURVER UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU NORD A NORD-OUEST
SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE EN MARGE SUD-OUEST DU
SYSTEME. BIEN QUE CE SCENARIO GLOBAL SOIT PORTE PAR LES DERNIERES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, UNE FORTE DISPERSION PERSISTE AU DELA DES 48
HEURES DE PREVISION ET SURTOUT EN FIN DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LE CAP
EXACT ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE
EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MEILLEURS MODELES NUMERIQUES
DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE FAVORISENT
PLUS VRAIMENT UNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. EN EFFET, EN PLUS DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ACTUELLEMENT OBSERVE, LE
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT EGALEMENT SE RENFORCER
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ACTUEL DEVRAIT DONC SE POURSUIVRE PLUS OU MOINS
RAPIDEMENT, ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER A SUBIR DES INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. LES
GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DIVERGENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. DEUX OPTIONS SE
DESSINENT: UNE POURSUITE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'A DISSIPATION
(OPTION SUPPORTEE PAR GFS/00Z, HWRF/00Z, ARP/00Z AINSI QUE LA
MAJORITE DES MEMBRES DE L'EPS/18Z ET DU GEFS/00Z) OU UNE
RE-INTESIFICATION PLUS OU MOINS TEMPORAIRE POTENTIELLEMENT ASSOCIEE A
DES TRAJECTOIRES DERIVANT PLUS LONGUEMENT VERS L'EST PERMETTANT DE
LIMITER L'IMPACT D'UN CISAILLEMENT RESTANT DE SECTEUR OUEST (OPTION
SUPPORTEE PARTIELLEMENT PAR IFS/18Z, UKMO/00Z ET NVGM/18Z). LE CMRS
OPTE PLUS POUR LA PREMIERE OPTION MAIS ON NOTERA QUE LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE PLUS INCERTAINE QUE LA NORMALE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 76.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 140

24H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 140

36H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85

72H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100

120H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ AND CI=3.5

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN HALIMA'S CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY UNDER THE EFFECT
OF AN ENVIRONMENT MORE AND MORE HOSTILE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF A TC
(SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION MAINLY). THE RECONSTITUTION OF AN
INTERNAL CORE VISIBLE AT TIMES ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AS ON THE AMSR2
LAST NIGHT) DOES NOT PERSIST. THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT IS BASED ON A
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AS WELL AS
DATA FROM THE 0348Z AND 0441Z ASCAT PASSES SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MOVED MORE IN AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND A MID TO UPPER LEVELS TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. FROM THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLOW DOWN ITS
COURSE, DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
THE EQUATOR AND THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST, THUS IMPELLING A TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTH-EAST AT
FIRST THEN NORTH-EAST FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT, HALIMA
SHOULD CLEARLY SLOW DOWN, BEING ON THE FAR MARGIN OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC ACTORS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE AND SHOULD CURVE A TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH TO NORTH-WEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN MARGIN OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THIS GLOBAL
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, A STRONG
DISPERSION PERSISTS BEYOND THE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST AND ESPECIALLY AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK ON THE EXACT HEADING AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE BEST
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY
FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT, IN ADDITION TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED, THE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. THE CURRENT WEAKENING SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE MORE OR LESS
RAPIDLY, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECTED TO INTRUSIONS
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SHEAR.
THE INTENSITY GUIDELINES DIVERGE FROM WEDNESDAY. TWO OPTIONS ARE
EMERGING: A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION (OPTION
SUPPORTED BY GFS/00Z, HWRF/00Z, ARP/00Z AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF
EPS/18Z AND GEFS/00Z MEMBERS) OR A MORE OR LESS TEMPORARY
RE-INTESIFICATION POTENTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH LONGER EASTWARD
DRIFTING TRACK ALLOWING TO LIMIT THE IMPACT OF A PERSISTANT WESTERLY
SHEAR (OPTION PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY IFS/18Z, UKMO/00Z AND NVGM/18Z).
THE CMRS OPTS MORE FOR THE FIRST OPTION BUT WE NOTE THAT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL.

CYCLONE HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 270620
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 76.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/27 AT 18 UTC:
21.1 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/28 AT 06 UTC:
21.8 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 75.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 75.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.2S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.0S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.1S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.8S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.8S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.6S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 76.4E.
27MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 776
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270039
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 75.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 155 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

24H: 28/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 165 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 28/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 130 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 100

48H: 29/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 130 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 100

60H: 29/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65

72H: 30/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 75

120H: 01/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 ET CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EST
RESTEE EN MARGE DES FAIBLES BOUFFEES CONVECTIVES QUI SE SONT
DECLENCHEES DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EST A METTRE EN RELATION AVEC LA
PROXIMITA DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI APPORTE ACTUELLEMENT UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE (30 A 40KT SELON LES
DONNEES DU CIMSS). A CELA S'AJOUTE EGALEMENT UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC
EN BORDURE OUEST ET NORD QUI VIENT CONTOURNER PEU A PEU LE SYSTEME.
CELLE-CI EST D'AILLEURS BIEN VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE AINSI
QUE SUR LA MIMIC-TPW DU CIMMS. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE AMSR2 DE 2018Z
PRESENTE EGALEMENT UNE EROSION DU MUR INTERNE DANS SA PARTIE NORD ET
OUEST, ET A PERMIS EGALEMENT DE DETERMINER PLUS EFFICACEMENT LA
POSITION DU SYSTEME, PAR RAPPORT A LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE. LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A DONC CONTINUE A SE DEGRADER LEGEREMENT AU
FIL DES HEURES. AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE DU SYSTEME ET DES
DERNIERES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES (SATCON, ADT ET AIDT),
L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 55KT PAR INERTIE, LEGEREMENT AU DESSUS DES
DONNEES OBJECTIVES.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HALIMA GARDE UN BON RYTHME EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. A PARTIR DU DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, HALIMA VA RALENTIR PROGRESSIVEMENT SA COURSE, DU AU
DECALAGE VERS L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET AU
GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSABLE SUBTROPICAL AU SUD-OUEST, IMPULSANT AINSI
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST-NORD-EST DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS PUIS
NORD-EST ENSUITE A PARTIR DE MARDI OU MERCREDI. AU-DELA , HALIMA
DEVRAIT NETTEMENT RALENTIR, SE RETROUVANT EN MARGE LOINTAINE DES
PRINCIPAUX ACTEURS SYNOPTIQUES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET DEVRAIT
INCURVER UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU NORD A NORD-OUEST SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE EN MARGE SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME.
BIEN QUE CE SCENARIO GLOBAL SOIT PORTE PAR LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES, UNE FORTE DISPERSION PERSISTE AU DELA DES 48 HEURES DE
PREVISION ET SURTOUT EN FIN DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LE CAP EXACT ET
LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE EST BASEE
SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MEILLEURS MODELES NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE FAVORISENT
PLUS VRAIMENT UNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. EN EFFET, EN PLUS DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ACTUELLEMENT OBSERVE, LE
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT EGALEMENT SE RENFORCER
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT, ET
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER A SUBIR DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. MALGRA CE
CONTEXTE DIFFICILE HALIMA POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT SE MAINTENIR AU
STADE DE TEMPETE ENTRE MARDI ET MERCREDI, GRACE A UN RETOUR SALVATEUR
SUR DES EAUX DE SURFACE PLUS CHAUDES ET UN RETOUR TEMPORAIRE DU
CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SOUS LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE GRACE A UNE
LEGERE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. NEANMOINS L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU
THALWEG PAR L'OUEST A PARTIR DE JEUDI POURRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT
CONDUIRE A UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIVE CETTE
FOIS-CI. CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ASSEZ INCERTAINE, EN LIEN
AVEC LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME QUI RESTE FRAGILE AUX FLUCTUATIONS
DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT. CETTE PREVISION SERA PROBABLEMENT TRES
DEPENDANTE DE L'EVOLUTION DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES A COURTE
ECHEANCE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 75.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

24H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100

48H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 100

60H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

120H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 ET CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED ON THE
MARGIN OF THE FLARING CONVECTIVE PUSHES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING OF HALIMA IS LINKED
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY BRINGING
STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE (30 TO
40KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA). IN ADDITION, THERE IS ALSO AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS GRADUALLY BYPASSING THE LLC. THIS ONE IS WELL
DEPICTED ON THE CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS ON THE CIMMS
MIMIC-TPW. THE 2018Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS AN EROSION OF
THE INNER WALL IN ITS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART, AND ALSO ALLOWED TO
DETERMINE MORE PRECISELY THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH RESPECT TO
THE WEAK CONVECTION. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEGRADE SLIGHTLY.
GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (SATCON, ADT AND AIDT), THE INTENSITE IS HELD
AT 55KT, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE DATA.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, HALIMA IS KEEPING A GOOD PACE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
THE NORTHEAST. FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA WILL
PROGRESSIVELY SLOW DOWN ITS COURSE, DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHWEST, THUS IMPULSING A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST AT FIRST THEN NORTH-EAST FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND THAT, HALIMA SHOULD CLEARLY SLOW DOWN, BEING ON THE FAR MARGIN
OF THE MAIN MID-TROPOSPHERE SYNOPTIC ACTORS AND SHOULD CURVE A TRACK
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN MARGIN OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THIS GLOBAL
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, A STRONG
DISPERSION PERSISTS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK ON THE EXACT HEADING AND
SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE BEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY SEEM TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT, IN ADDITION TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED, THE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. THE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY, AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE
AIR DUE TO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HALIMA COULD TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN
ITSELF FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS BY KEEPING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS
CIRCULATION, THANKS TO A RETURN TO WARMER SURFECE WATERS,
NEVERTHELESS THE APPROACH OF A NEW UPPER TROUGH COULD DEFINITIVELY
LEAD TO A NEW DEFINITIVE WEAKENING PHASE THIS TIME. THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS SENSITIVE TO FLUCTUATIONS OF ITS ENVIRONMENT.
THE LATTER WILL PROBABLY BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.

CYCLONE HALIMA PRESENTS NO THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 270014
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 75.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
20.8 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/28 AT 00 UTC:
21.6 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261833
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6 S / 75.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 155 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

24H: 27/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 155 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 28/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 110

48H: 28/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 120

60H: 29/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 100

72H: 29/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 155

120H: 31/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A
CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER SOUS L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT
DE SECTEUR OUEST DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, COMME LE SUGGERENT LES
IMAGERIES SATELLITAIRES CLASSIQUES AINSI QUE LES DONNES DU CIMSS. LA
CONVECTION S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT EFFONDREE DES LA FIN D'APRES-MIDI,
AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DEVENANT DE PLUS EN PLUS CHAUD. CE N'EST QUE
DEUX HEURES AVANT L'HEURE DU RESEAU QUE LA CONVECTION A TENTE DE SE
RECONSTITUER FAIBLEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET SUD-EST DU
CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES. DE PLUS LE CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES COUCHES
S'EST RETROUVE PONCTUELLEMENT EXPOSA A PARTIR DE 17Z. EN L'ABSENCE
D'IMAGES MICRO-ONDES ET DE DONNEES DIFFUSOMETRIQUES, IL EST DELICAT
D'ESTIMER L'EVOLUTION DE L'ORGANISATION INTERNE D'HALIMA. TOUTEFOIS
AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE DU SYSTEME ET DES DERNIERES ANALYSES
SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES (SATCON, ADT ET AIDT), L'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSEE A 55KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HALIMA GARDE UN BON RYTHME EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. A PARTIR DU DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, HALIMA VA RALENTIR PROGRESSIVEMENT SA COURS, DU AU
DECALAGE VERS L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET AU
GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSABLE SUBTROPICAL AU SUD-OUEST, IMPULSANT AINSI
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST-NORD-EST DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS PUIS
NORD-EST ENSUITE A PARTIR DE MARDI OU MERCREDI. AU-DELA , HALIMA
DEVRAIT NETTEMENT RALENTIR, SE RETROUVANT EN MARGE LOINTAINE DES
PRINCIPAUX ACTEURS SYNOPTIQUES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET DEVRAIT
INCURVER UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU NORD A NORD-OUEST SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE EN MARGE SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME.
BIEN QUE CE SCENARIO GLOBAL SOIT PORTE PAR LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES, UNE FORTE DISPERSION PERSISTE EN FIN DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE SUR LE CAP EXACT ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME.
LA PREVISION ACTUELLE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MEILLEURS
MODELES NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS NE SEMBLENT PLUS VRAIMENT
REUNIES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. EN EFFET, EN PLUS DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ACTUELLEMENT OBSERVE, LE
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT EGALEMENT SE RENFORCER
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE GRADUELLEMENT, ET LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT SUBIR DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SOUS
L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. HALIMA POURRAIT POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT SE
MAINTENIR A PARTIR DE MARDI EN CONSERVANT DES VENTS DE FORCE GRAND
FRAIS DANS SA CIRCULATION, GRACE A UN RETOUR SUR DES EAUX DE SURFACE
PLUS CHAUDES, NEANMOINS L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU THALWEG PAR L'OUEST
POURRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT CONDUIRE A UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIVE CETTE FOIS-CI. CETTE PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE ASSEZ INCERTAINE, EN LIEN AVEC LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME QUI RESTE FRAGILE AUX FLUCTUATIONS DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT.
CETTE DERNIERE SERA PROBABLEMENT TRES DEPENDANTE DE L'EVOLUTION DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES A COURTE ECHEANCE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 75.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

24H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110

48H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 120

60H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 100

72H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 155

120H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS KEPT ON DEGRADING UNDER
THE EFFECT OF A MODERATE TO STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR, AS SUGGESTED BY THE CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CIMSS
DATA. THE CONVECTION PROGRESSIVELY COLLAPSED FROM THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUD TOPS GETTING WARMER AND WARMER. IT WAS ONLY TWO
HOURS BEFORE THE NETWORK TIME THAT THE CONVECTION TRIED TO
RECONSTITUTE ITSELF WEAKLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE LLC. MOREOVER THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER WAS PUNCTUALLY EXPOSED FROM
17Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND SCATTEROMETRIC DATA, IT
IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERNAL ORGANIZATION
OF HALIMA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (SATCON, AIDT AND ADT). THE
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55KT.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, HALIMA IS KEEPING A GOOD PACE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
THE NORTHEAST. FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA WILL
PROGRESSIVELY SLOW DOWN ITS COURSE, DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHWEST, THUS IMPULSING A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST AT FIRST THEN NORTH-EAST FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND THAT, HALIMA SHOULD CLEARLY SLOW DOWN, BEING ON THE FAR MARGIN
OF THE MAIN MID-TROPOSPHERE SYNOPTIC ACTORS AND SHOULD CURVE A TRACK
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN MARGIN OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THIS GLOBAL
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, A STRONG
DISPERSION PERSISTS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK ON THE EXACT HEADING AND
SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE BEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY SEEM TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT, IN ADDITION TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED, THE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. THE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY, AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE
AIR DUE TO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HALIMA COULD TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN
ITSELF FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS BY KEEPING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS
CIRCULATION, THANKS TO A RETURN TO WARMER SURFECE WATERS,
NEVERTHELESS THE APPROACH OF A NEW UPPER TROUGH COULD DEFINITIVELY
LEAD TO A NEW DEFINITIVE WEAKENING PHASE THIS TIME. THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS SENSITIVE TO FLUCTUATIONS OF ITS ENVIRONMENT.
THE LATTER WILL PROBABLY BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.

CYCLONE HALIMA PRESENTS NO THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 261815
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 75.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 195 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/27 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/27 AT 18 UTC:
21.3 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261302 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 74.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 27/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 28/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 110

48H: 28/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 100

60H: 29/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 100

72H: 29/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 100

120H: 31/03/2022 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A
CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER. EN EFFET, LE CENTRE D'HALIMA S'EST RETROUVE
EN MARGE DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AVEC UNE PARTIE DE LA CIRCULATION
INTERNE QUI EST DEVENU APPARENTE SUR LES IMAGERIES VISIBLES AUTOUR DE
9Z. LA CONFIGURATION S'EST TEMPORAIREMENT AMELIOREE ENTRE 9Z ET 11Z
AVEC UNE BANDE CONVECTIVE QUI S'EST ENROULE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD.
CEPENDANT, LES DERNIERES IMAGES SEMBLENT SUGERRER QUE L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE EST A NOUVEAU EN BAISSE AVEC DES SOMMETS QUI SE
RECHAUFFENT. LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1138Z CONFIRMENT CES TENDANCES AVEC UN
CENTRE EN MARGE DE LA BANDE INCURVEE ET LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LA
PARTIE EST DU COEUR. ETANT DONNEE CES EVOLUTIONS ET LES DERNIERES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES (SATCON NOTAMMENT), L'INTENSITE
EST ABAISSEE A 60KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HALIMA A ACCELERE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, HALIMA GLISSANT
AU SUD DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA
DORSABLE SUBTROPICAL AU SUD-OUEST, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA VERS
L'EST PUIS LE NORD-EST LUNDI OU MARDI. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, HALIMA DEVRAIT NETTEMENT RALENTIR, SE RETROUVANT EN MARGE
LOINTAINE DES PRINCIPAUX ACTEURS SYNOPTIQUES. BIEN QUE CE SCENARIO
GLOBAL SOIT ASSEZ CONSENSUEL, UNE FORTE DISPERSION PERSISTE LA
SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LE CAP EXACT ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
MEILLEURS MODELES NUMERIQUES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS NE SEMBLENT PLUS REUNIES POUR
UNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. EN PLUS DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT EGALEMENT
SE RENFORCER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE DEMAIN ET LUNDI,
EN LIEN AVEC LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. MARDI
ET MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT RETROUVER DES
CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE, UN
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DIVERGENCE AU SUD ET DES EAUX DE SURFACE PLUS
CHAUDES. NEANMOINS UN NOUVEAU THALWEG ET LE CISAILLEMENT QUI
L'ACCOMPAGNE POURRAIENT CONDUIRE A UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ASSEZ
INCERTAINE, EN LIEN AVEC LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME MAIS EGALEMENT
CETTE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION. CETTE DERNIERE SERA PROBABLEMENT
TRES DEPENDANTE DE L'EVOLUTION A COURTE ECHEANCE. AU VU DE LA
TENDANCE RECENTE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ACTUEL POURRAIT ETRE
IRREMEDIABLE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.A CONTI=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261302 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 74.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 110

48H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 100

60H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 100

72H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 100

120H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DECAY.
INDEED, HALIMA'S CENTER WAS ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH PARTS OF THE INNER CIRCULATION BECOMING APPARENT ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY AROUND 9Z. THE CONFIGURATION HAS TEMPORARILY IMPROVED BETWEEN
9Z AND 11Z WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE LAST IMAGES SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AGAIN DECLINING WITH WARMING TOPS. THE 1138Z
SSMIS PASS CONFIRMS THESE TRENDS WITH A CENTER ON THE EDGE OF THE
CURVED BAND AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CORE. GIVEN THESE EVOLUTIONS AND THE LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES (SATCON NOTABLY), THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA HAS ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
FROM SUNDAY, HALIMA SLIDING SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE
TRAJECTORY WILL TURN EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA SHOULD SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY, BEING IN REMOTE MARGIN OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC ACTORS.
ALTHOUGH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO IS WIDELY ACCEPTED, THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF DISCREPANCY, NEXT WEEK, ON THE EXACT BEARING AND MOTION SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
BEST NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONDITIONS NO LONGER SEEM TO BE PRESENT
FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION TO THE MIDSHEAR, THE
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TOMORROW AND MONDAY, IN RELATION TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS IN THE
MID-LEVELS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY
FIND MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH A DECREASING SHEAR, A STRONGER
DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH AND WARMER SST. NEVERTHELESS A NEW TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A NEW WEAKENING PHASE. THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER WILL
PROBABLY BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE SHORT TERM EVOLUTION. GIVEN THE
RECENT EVOLUTION, THE CURRENT WEAKENING MAY BE FATAL FOR HALIMA.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR THE INHABITED AREAS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 74.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 27/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 28/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 110

48H: 28/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 100

60H: 29/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 100

72H: 29/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 100

120H: 31/03/2022 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A
CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER. EN EFFET, LE CENTRE D'HALIMA S'EST RETROUVE
EN MARGE DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AVEC UNE PARTIE DE LA CIRCULATION
INTERNE QUI EST DEVENU APPARENTE SUR LES IMAGERIES VISIBLES AUTOUR DE
9Z. LA CONFIGURATION S'EST TEMPORAIREMENT AMELIOREE ENTRE 9Z ET 11Z
AVEC UNE BANDE CONVECTIVE QUI S'EST ENROULE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD.
CEPENDANT, LES DERNIERES IMAGES SEMBLENT SUGERRER QUE L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE EST A NOUVEAU EN BAISSE AVEC DES SOMMETS QUI SE
RECHAUFFENT. LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1138Z CONFIRMENT CES TENDANCES AVEC UN
CENTRE EN MARGE DE LA BANDE INCURVEE ET LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LA
PARTIE EST DU COEUR. ETANT DONNEE CES EVOLUTIONS ET LES DERNIERES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES (SATCON NOTAMMENT), L'INTENSITE
EST ABAISSEE A 60KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HALIMA A ACCELERE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, HALIMA GLISSANT
AU SUD DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA
DORSABLE SUBTROPICAL AU SUD-OUEST, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA VERS
L'EST PUIS LE NORD-EST LUNDI OU MARDI. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, HALIMA DEVRAIT NETTEMENT RALENTIR, SE RETROUVANT EN MARGE
LOINTAINE DES PRINCIPAUX ACTEURS SYNOPTIQUES. BIEN QUE CE SCENARIO
GLOBAL SOIT ASSEZ CONSENSUEL, UNE FORTE DISPERSION PERSISTE LA
SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LE CAP EXACT ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
MEILLEURS MODELES NUMERIQUES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS NE SEMBLENT PLUS REUNIES POUR
UNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. EN PLUS DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT EGALEMENT
SE RENFORCER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE DEMAIN ET LUNDI,
EN LIEN AVEC LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. MARDI
ET MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT RETROUVER DES
CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE, UN
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DIVERGENCE AU SUD ET DES EAUX DE SURFACE PLUS
CHAUDES. NEANMOINS UN NOUVEAU THALWEG ET LE CISAILLEMENT QUI
L'ACCOMPAGNE POURRAIENT CONDUIRE A UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ASSEZ
INCERTAINE, EN LIEN AVEC LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME MAIS EGALEMENT
CETTE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION. CETTE DERNIERE SERA PROBABLEMENT
TRES DEPENDANTE DE L'EVOLUTION A COURTE ECHEANCE. AU VU DE LA
TENDANCE RECENTE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ACTUEL POURRAIT ETRE
IRREMEDIABLE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.A CONTI=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 74.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 110

48H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 100

60H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 100

72H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 100

120H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DECAY.
INDEED, HALIMA'S CENTER WAS ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH PARTS OF THE INNER CIRCULATION BECOMING APPARENT ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY AROUND 9Z. THE CONFIGURATION HAS TEMPORARILY IMPROVED BETWEEN
9Z AND 11Z WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE LAST IMAGES SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AGAIN DECLINING WITH WARMING TOPS. THE 1138Z
SSMIS PASS CONFIRMS THESE TRENDS WITH A CENTER ON THE EDGE OF THE
CURVED BAND AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CORE. GIVEN THESE EVOLUTIONS AND THE LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES (SATCON NOTABLY), THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA HAS ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
FROM SUNDAY, HALIMA SLIDING SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE
TRAJECTORY WILL TURN EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA SHOULD SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY, BEING IN REMOTE MARGIN OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC ACTORS.
ALTHOUGH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO IS WIDELY ACCEPTED, THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF DISCREPANCY, NEXT WEEK, ON THE EXACT BEARING AND MOTION SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
BEST NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONDITIONS NO LONGER SEEM TO BE PRESENT
FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION TO THE MIDSHEAR, THE
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TOMORROW AND MONDAY, IN RELATION TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS IN THE
MID-LEVELS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY
FIND MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH A DECREASING SHEAR, A STRONGER
DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH AND WARMER SST. NEVERTHELESS A NEW TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A NEW WEAKENING PHASE. THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER WILL
PROBABLY BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE SHORT TERM EVOLUTION. GIVEN THE
RECENT EVOLUTION, THE CURRENT WEAKENING MAY BE FATAL FOR HALIMA.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR THE INHABITED AREAS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 261228
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 74.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/27 AT 00 UTC:
19.3 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
20.6 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260625
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/10/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 73.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 967 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 27/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 165 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 27/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 28/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 100

60H: 28/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 120

72H: 29/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65

120H: 31/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
DEGRADEE. LE CDO S'EST NETTEMENT RECHAUFFE ET L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
SEMBLE NETTEMENT PLUS MORCELE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE FIN DE NUIT
(SSMIS DE 2334Z ET 0104Z) MONTRENT L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA
CIRCULATION INTERNE AVEC UN OEIL EN PERTE DE DEFINITION. CET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT SEMBLE NETTEMENT LIE AU RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT
NOTAMMENT CELUI DE OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ANALYSE CE
MATIN A ENVIRON 30KT PAR LE CIMSS. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES ET VAPEUR
D'EAU TEMOIGNENT D'UNE INTRUSION SECHE IMPOROTANTE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD-EST CONCORDANT AVEC CE CISAILLEMENT. LA PETITE
TAILLE DU SYSTEME A DU EGALEMENT FAVORISER LA RAPIDITE DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES
ET OBJECTIVES AINSI QUE LES DONNEES ASCAT DE 0408Z, L'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSEE A 75KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HALIMA A COMMENCE A ACCELER EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, HALIMA GLISSANT
AU SUD DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA
DORSABLE SUBTROPICAL AU SUD-OUEST, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA VERS
L'EST PUIS LE NORD-EST LUNDI. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, HALIMA
DEVRAIT NETTEMENT RALENTIR, SE RETROUVANT EN MARGE LOINTAINE DES
PRINCIPAUX ACTEURS SYNOPTIQUES. BIEN QUE CE SCENARIO GLOBAL SOIT
ASSEZ CONSENSUELLE, UNE FORTE DISPERSION PERSISTE LA SEMAINE
PROCHAINE SUR LE CAP EXACT ET LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME.
LA PREVISION ACTUELLE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MEILLEURS
MODELES NUMERIQUES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS NE SEMBLENT PLUS REUNIES POUR
UNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE A COURTE ECHEANCE. EN PLUS DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT EGALEMENT SE RENFORCER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES
A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANC EN
LIEN AVEC LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, EST
ENVISAGEE DEMAIN ET LUNDI. MARDI ET MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLES AVEC UN
CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE, UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA DIVERGENCE AU SUD ET
DES EAUX DE SURFACE PLUS CHAUDES. NEANMOINS UN NOUVEAU THALWEG ET LE
CISAILLEMENT QUI L'ACCOMPAGNE POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ASSEZ
INCERTAINE, EN LIEN AVEC LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME MAIS EGALEMENT
CETTE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION. CETTE DERNIERE SERA PROBABLEMENT
TRES DEPENDANTE DE L'EVOLUTION A COURTE ECHEANCE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/10/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 73.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100

60H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 120

72H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. THE
CDO HAS CLEARLY WARMED UP AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE
MUCH MORE PATCHY. THE LATE NIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGES ( 2334Z AND 0104Z
SSMIS) SHOW THE WEAKENING OF THE INNER CIRCULATION WITH A FADING EYE.
THIS WEAKENING SEEMS TO BE CLEARLY RELATED TO THE SHEAR
STRENGTHENING, ESPECIALLY THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MIDSHEAR ANALYZED
THIS MORNING AROUND 30KT BY THE CIMSS. MICROWAVE AND WATER VAPOUR
IMAGES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY INTRUSION IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SHEAR. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
MUST ALSO HAVE FAVORED THE RAPIDITY OF THIS WEAKENING. IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND THE 0408Z ASCAT
DATA, THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 75KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. FROM SUNDAY, HALIMA SLIDING
SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE TRAJECTORY WILL TURN EASTWARD
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA
SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, BEING IN REMOTE MARGIN OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC ACTORS. ALTHOUGH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO IS WIDELY ACCEPTED,
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCY, NEXT WEEK, ON THE EXACT BEARING
AND MOTION SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE BEST NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONDITIONS NO LONGER SEEM TO BE PRESENT
FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AT SHORT RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE
MIDSHEAR, THE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING
IN RELATION TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY FIND MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH A DECREASING SHEAR,
A STRONGER DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH AND WARMER SST. NEVERTHELESS A NEW
TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A NEW WEAKENING PHASE.
THIS INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION. THE
LATTER WILL PROBABLY BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE SHORT TERM EVOLUTION.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR THE INHABITED AREAS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 260611
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA) 967 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 73.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/26 AT 18 UTC:
18.4 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/27 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260007
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/10/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 73.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/03/2022 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 27/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 27/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 28/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

60H: 28/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 35

72H: 29/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 31/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 40 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE HALIMA
A PERDU SA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL POUR LAISSER PLACE A UNE
CONFIGURATION EN CDO. LA CONVECTION PERIPHERIQUE S EST DAVANTAGE
ORGANISEE ET POURRAIT EXPLIQUER L'ETOUFFEMENT DE L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE CENTRALE. EN ABSENCE DE DONNES MICRO-ONDES ET D'ASCAT, LES
IMAGES INFRA-ROUGE ONT ETE UTILISEES POUR DETERMINER LA POSITION DU
CENTRE. EN ANALYSE DVORAK, L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 5.0, DONC UN CI
DE 5.5+ AVEC DES VENTS DE 95KT. ELLE EST CONFIRMEE PAR LES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES (ADT ET AIDT) ET DU SATCON.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE MOUVEMENT DU CYCLONE VERS LE SUD SE
MAINTIENT A COURT TERME SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE EN APPROCHE PAR LE SUD-SUD-OUEST ET AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, S'ETENDANT
AUSSI SUR LA FACADE EST DU SYSTEME. CE MOUVEMENT VA S'ACCELERER DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES EN PRENANT UNE COMPOSANTE SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, HALIMA GLISSANT AU SUD DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA VERS L'EST. MALGRE UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES
MODELES A LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE GONFLEMENT PLUS MARQUEE D UNE DORSALE A
L OUEST DU SYSTEME SEMBLE FAVORISER LE SCENARIO D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE NORD-EST EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HALIMA RESTE DANS DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES A COURT TERME (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, FORTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE). APRES
DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE EN COURS DE NUIT, HALIMA DEVRAIT POUVOIR
SE REINTENSIFIER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. CEPENDANT CETTE
INTENSIFICATION EST REVUE LEGEREMENT A LA BAISSE PAR RAPPORT A LA
PREVISION PRECEDENTE. PUIS DANS LES 24H A VENIR, L'APPROCHE D'UN
TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN NET RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE ET CONTINU
ASSOCIE A UNE POSSIBLE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EST DONC ENVISAGE, MAIS
L'AMPLEUR RESTE INCERTAINE. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT POURRAIT ETRE LIMITE
OU PROVISOIRE CAR UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE MARDI EST
PROBABLE AVEC UNE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE RESTE NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260007
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 73.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALIMA HAS
LOST ITS EYE CONFIGURATION TO A CDO CONFIGURATION. THE PERIPHERAL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND COULD EXPLAIN THE WEAKENING
OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE AND
ASCAT DATA, INFRARED IMAGES WERE USED TO DETERMINE THE POSITION OF
THE CENTER. IN DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 5.0, SO
A CI OF 5.5+ WITH WINDS OF 95KT. IT IS CONFIRMED BY THE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES (ADT AND AIDT) AND BY THE SATCON.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE TOWARDS THE SOUTH IS
MAINTAINED IN THE SHORT TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST,
EXTENDING ALSO ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MOVEMENT WILL
ACCELERATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY TAKING A SOUTH-EAST COMPONENT.
FROM SUNDAY, HALIMA SLIDING SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE
TRACK WILL TURN EASTWARD. IN SPITE OF A STRONG DISPERSION OF THE LONG
RANGE MODELS, THE MORE MARKED DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO FAVOUR THE SCENARIO OF A TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA REMAINS IN VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM (WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE WITH A POLAR COAST EVACUATION CHANNEL). AFTER FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY DURING THE NIGHT, HALIMA SHOULD BE ABLE TO REINTENSIFY
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS INTENSIFICATION IS REVISED
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD
FAVOR A CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WEST SHEAR. A RAPID AND
CONTINUOUS WEAKENING ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
IS THUS ENVISAGED, BUT THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS WEAKENING
COULD BE LIMITED OR TEMPORARY AS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS IS LIKELY WITH A DECREASE OF THE SHEAR. THE FORECAST
OF INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS NEVERTHELESS VERY
UNCERTAIN.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 260001
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 73.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 115 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/26 AT 12 UTC:
17.6 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/27 AT 00 UTC:
19.4 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251818
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/10/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.8 S / 73.4 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 939 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 26/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 27/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 27/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 28/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 28/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 30/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME HALIMA EST
RESTEE STATIONNAIRE AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL. LES ANALYSES
DVORAK RESTENT SUR UN CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE MALGRE UNE LEGERE
DEGRADATION DANS LA DERNIERE HEURE. LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS ET
GMI SONT COHERENTES AVEC LA LOCALISATION FAITE EN INFRAROUGE. LES
EXTENSIONS ONT ETE AJUSTEES AVEC LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1700Z
ESSENTIELLEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST (SYSTEME EN LIMITE DE
FAUCHEE). PAR AILLEURS L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 105KT PAR L'ANALYSE
DVORAK EST CONFIRMEE PAR LES DONNES SMAP DE 1256Z AVEC UNE VALEUR DE
98KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE MOUVEMENT DU CYCLONE VERS LE SUD SE
CONFIRME A COURT TERME SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE EN APPROCHE PAR LE SUD-SUD-OUEST ET AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, S'ETENDANT
AUSSI SUR LA FACADE EST DU SYSTEME. CE MOUVEMENT VA S'ACCELERER
SAMEDI EN PRENANT UNE COMPOSANTE SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE,
HALIMA GLISSANT AU SUD DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA VERS L'EST. MALGRE UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES
MODELES A LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE GONFLEMENT PLUS MARQUEE D UNE DORSALE A
L OUEST DU SYSTEME SEMBLE FAVORISER LE SCENARIO D UNE TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE NORD-EST EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HALIMA RESTE DANS DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, FORTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE). A
COURT TERME, SEULE L'OCCURRENCE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL POURRAIT TEMPERER LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION. EN
CONSEQUENCE, HALIMA POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
TRES INTENSE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. PUIS DANS LES 24-36H A
VENIR, L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN
NET RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
RAPIDE ET CONTINU ASSOCIE A UNE POSSIBLE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EST DONC
POSSIBLE, MAIS L'AMPLEUR RESTE INCERTAINE. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT
POURRAIT ETRE LIMITE OU PROVISOIRE CAR UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION A
PARTIR DE MARDI EST POSSIBLE AVEC UNE POSSIBLE BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE RESTE
NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/10/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 73.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/26 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE STRUCTURE OF THE HALIMA SYSTEM
REMAINED STATIONARY WITH AN EYE CONFIGURATION. DVORAK ANALYSES REMAIN
ON AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE A SLIGHT DEGRADATION IN THE
LAST HOUR. THE SSMIS AND GMI MICROWAVE PASSES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
INFRARED LOCALIZATION. THE EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH THE
1700Z ASCAT PASS ESSENTIALLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE (SYSTEM AT THE
LIMIT OF THE SWATH). MOREOVER THE INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 105KT BY THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE SMAP DATA FROM 1256Z WITH A VALUE
OF 98KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT IS CONFIRMED IN
THE SHORT TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, ALSO EXTENDING ALONG
THE SYSTEM'S EASTERN FLANK. THIS MOVEMENT WILL ACCELERATE ON SATURDAY
BY TAKING A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. FROM SUNDAY, HALIMA MOVING SOUTH
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE TRACK WILL TURN EASTWARD. IN SPITE
OF A STRONG DISPERSION OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS, THE MORE MARKED
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
SCENARIO OF A TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA REMAINS IN A VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
UNTIL SATURDAY (WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HIGH SST). WHILE THE CYCLONE'S
MOVEMENT ACCELERATES, IT SHOULD TAKE BETTER ADVANTAGE OF THE
AVAILABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THE SHORT TERM, ONLY A POSSIBLE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
CONSEQUENTLY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT WILL GET NEAR OR MAYBE REACH
THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN
IN THE NEXT 24-36H, THE APPROACH OF A SOUTH-WEST TROUGH SHOULD FAVOUR
A CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WEST SHEAR. A RAPID AND CONTINUOUS
WEAKENING ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IS THUS
POSSIBLE, BUT THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS WEAKENING COULD BE
LIMITED OR TEMPORARY AS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS
IS POSSIBLE WITH A POSSIBLE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR. THE FORECAST OF
INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS NEVERTHELESS VERY
UNCERTAIN.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 251806
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 25/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA) 939 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 73.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/26 AT 06 UTC:
16.6 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/26 AT 18 UTC:
18.7 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251230
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/10/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 73.4 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 939 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 26/03/2022 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 27/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 27/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 28/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 28/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65

120H: 30/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HALIMA
S'EST ENCORE UN PEU AMELIOREE AVEC UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI DONT LA
TEMPERATURE INFRAROUGE S'EST RECHAUFFEE, ENTOURE D'UNE CONVECTION
INTENSE ET UNE STRUCTURE BIEN CIRCULAIRE. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2
DE 0843Z CONFIRME UN ANNEAU CENTRAL TRES COMPACT ET BIEN CONSOLIDE.
LE RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX EST ESTIME A SEULEMENT 6 MN. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN DT MOYEN SUR 3 HEURES A 6.0+, CONDUISANT A
UNE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE A 105 KT A 12Z. PAR AILLEURS, LA
BEST-TRACK A ETE MISE A JOUR A POSTERIORI ENTRE LE 24 A 06Z ET LE 25
A 00Z AVEC DES INTENSITES REVUES A LA HAUSSE, COMME ANNONCE DANS LE
PRECEDENT BULLETIN CMRS.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE MOUVEMENT DU CYCLONE VERS LE SUD SE
CONFIRME A COURT TERME SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE EN APPROCHE PAR LE SUD-SUD-OUEST ET AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, S'ETENDANT
AUSSI SUR LA FACADE EST DU SYSTEME. CE MOUVEMENT VA S'ACCELERER
SAMEDI EN PRENANT UNE COMPOSANTE SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE,
HALIMA GLISSANT AU SUD DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA VERS L'EST. CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT ENSUITE
BASCULER PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME,
INDUISANT UNE ORIENTATION NORD-EST PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANTE A PARTIR
DE MARDI, MAIS AVEC UNE TRES FORTE DISPERSION DANS LES PREVISIONS A
CETTE ECHEANCE. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE SUIT UN SCENARIO MEDIAN PARMI
LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HALIMA RESTE DANS DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, FORTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE, SST
ELEVEES). DE PLUS, AVEC UN MOUVEMENT QUI S'ACCELERE, LE CYCLONE
DEVRAIT MIEUX PROFITER DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DISPONIBLE. A COURT
TERME, SEULE L'OCCURRENCE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
POURRAIT TEMPERER LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION. EN CONSEQUENCE,
HALIMA POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A
DIMANCHE, L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT FAVORISER
UN NET RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT
ENTRAINER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE ASSOCIE A UNE
POSSIBLE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC, MAIS DONT L'AMPLEUR RESTE INCERTAINE.
CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT POURRAIT ETRE LIMITE OU PROVISOIRE CAR CERTAINS
MODELES SUGGERENT UNE NOUVELLE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE
MARDI AVEC UNE POSSIBLE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET LE MAINTIEN D'UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE RESTE NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 73.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, HALIMA'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A BIT
MORE THE WELL-DEFINED EYE'S CENTRAL TEMPERATURE HAS KEPT WARMING AND
IS SURROUNDED BY INTENSE CONVECTION WITHIN A FAIRLY CIRCULAR
STRUCTURE. THE 0843Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS A VERY COMPACT AND
WELL CONSOLIDATED INNER CORE. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS
ESTIMATED AT ONLY 6 NM. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EIR EYE
PATTERN YIELDS A 3-HOUR-AVERAGED DT OF 6.0+, HENCE AN INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 105 KT. MOREOVER, THE BEST-TRACK HAS BEEN UPDATED
AFTER-HAND FROM THE 24TH AT 06Z TO THE 25TH AT 00Z WITH INCREASED
INTENSITIES, AS ANNOUNCED IN THE PREVIOUS RSMC BULLETIN.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT IS CONFIRMED IN
THE SHORT TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, ALSO EXTENDING ALONG
THE SYSTEM'S EASTERN FLANK. THIS MOVEMENT WILL ACCELERATE ON SATURDAY
BY TAKING A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. FROM SUNDAY, WHILE HALIMA WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE TRACK WILL MAKE AN
EASTWARD TURN. THIS RIDGE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING A MORE OR LESS IMPORTANT
NORTH-EAST ORIENTATION FROM TUESDAY, BUT WITH VERY STRONG DISPERSION
IN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A MEDIAN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA REMAINS IN A VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
UNTIL SATURDAY (WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HIGH SST). WHILE THE CYCLONE'S
MOVEMENT ACCELERATES, IT SHOULD TAKE BETTER ADVANTAGE OF THE
AVAILABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THE SHORT TERM, ONLY A POSSIBLE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
CONSEQUENTLY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT WILL GET NEAR OR MAYBE REACH
THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST
SHOULD FAVOUR INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR, ALTHOUGH ITS EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS WEAKENING
COULD BE LIMITED OR TEMPORARY AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FURTHER SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION FROM TUESDAY THANKS TO POSSIBLE DECREASING WIND SHEAR
AND SUFFICIENT REMNANT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS NEVERTHELESS VERY
UNCERTAIN.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 251213
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 25/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA) 939 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 73.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/26 AT 00 UTC:
15.8 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/26 AT 12 UTC:
17.7 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250641
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/10/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.6 S / 73.6 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/03/2022 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 165 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 26/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 26/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 205 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 27/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

60H: 27/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 350 SO: 230 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 28/03/2022 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 100

120H: 30/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 130 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL EST
DEVENUE DE PLUS EN PLUS NETTE SUR L'IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE ET VISIBLE,
LAISSANT APPARAITRE UN OEIL PARFAITEMENT CIRCULAIRE ET DE PETITE
DIMENSION. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DEPUIS JEUDI SOIR MONTRENT UN
ANNEAU CONVECTIF CENTRAL TRES SOLIDE ET COMPACT, AVEC UNE CONVECTION
VIGOUREUSE SUR TOUT LE POURTOUR DU RAYON DE VENTS MAXIMAUX. EN
COHERENCE AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE MOYENNEE SUR LES 3
DERNIERES HEURES ATTEIGNANT 6.0, L'INTENSITE DU CYCLONE EST ESTIMEE A
100 KT A 06Z. CELA INDIQUE UN PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE
DEPUIS HIER. PAR AILLEURS, SUR LA BASE DE DIVERSES DONNEES OBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES DEPUIS HIER 12Z (DONNEES SAR DU 24 A 1325Z MONTRANT DES
VENTS DEPASSANT LE STADE DE CYCLONE, PASSE SMAP A 0045Z MESURANT DES
VENTS A 91 KT, STRUCTURE ROBUSTE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES), ON PEUT ESTIMER A POSTERIORI QUE LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL ETAIT PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT DES JEUDI 12Z ET LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE A PU DEJA ETRE ATTEINT CE VENDREDI A 00Z).
LA BEST-TRACK SERA PROCHAINEMENT RETOUCHEE EN CONSEQUENCE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE RECENTE MONTRE QUE
LE CYCLONE A COMMENCE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD APRES AVOIR EU UN
MOUVEMENT TRES LENT ET HESITANT LA NUIT DERNIERE EN LIEN AVEC DES
FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. A PARTIR DE CE VENDREDI, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE EN APPROCHE
PAR LE SUD-SUD-OUEST ET AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST S'ETENDANT AUSSI SUR LA FACADE EST DU
SYSTEME, HALIMA VA CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD, D'ABORD
LENTE AUJOURD'HUI PUIS S'ACCELERANT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, HALIMA GLISSANT AU SUD DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA VERS L'EST. CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT ENSUITE
BASCULER PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME,
INDUISANT UNE COMPOSANTE NORD-EST DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE A PARTIR DE
MARDI, MAIS AVEC UNE FORTE DISPERSION DANS LES PREVISIONS A CETTE
ECHEANCE. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE RESTE PROCHE D'UN CONSENSUS DES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HALIMA EST DANS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES EXCELLENTES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL, FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE
POLAIRE, SST ELEVEES). DE PLUS, AVEC UN MOUVEMENT QUI S'ACCELERE UN
PEU CE VENDREDI, LE CYCLONE DEVRAIT MIEUX PROFITER DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE DISPONIBLE. SEULE L'OCCURRENCE D'EVENTUELS CYCLES DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIENT TEMPERER LE PROCESSUS
D'INTENSIFICATION D'ICI SAMEDI. EN CONSEQUENCE, ON NE PEUT EXCLURE
QUE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE SOIT ATTEINT DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24 A 36 HEURES (LA PRESENTE PREVISION MONTE A 115 KT MAIS
CELA POURRAIT ETRE ENCORE DAVANTAGE). A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR,
L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN NET
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT ENTRAINER
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF PAR INTRUSION D'AIR SEC ET AUSSI DU
FAIT D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE MOINS IMPORTANT VERS 23S. NEANMOINS CET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT POURRAIT ETRE PROVISOIRE CAR CERTAINS MODELES
SUGGERENT UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION QUAND LE SYSTEME BIFURQUE VERS
LE NORD-OUEST AUTOUR DE MARDI, RETROUVANT DES EAUX CHAUDES ET UN
CONTEXTE UN PEU MOINS CISAILLE. L'INTENSITE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE RESTE
NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE.

LE CYCLONE HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/10/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 73.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/25 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/26 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100

120H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, AN EYE PATTERN HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CLEAR
IN BOTH INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY, REVEALING A PERFECTLY CIRCULAR
AND SMALL EYE. MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT SHOW A VERY
SOLID AND COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CORE, WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION
ALL AROUND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SUBJECTIVE EIR DVORAK
ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS REACH 6.0, THUS THE CYCLONE'S
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 100 KT AT 06Z. THIS INDICATES THAT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE YESTERDAY. MOREOVER, BASED ON
VARIOUS OBJECTIVE DATA AVAILABLE SINCE THURSDAY 12Z (SAR DATA AT
1325Z SHOWING WINDS EXCEEDING THE CYCLONE STAGE, 0045Z SMAP PASS WITH
WINDS AT 91 KT, ROBUST STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE ON
MICROWAVE IMAGERY), WE CAN ESTIMATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WAS
PROBABLY REACHED FROM THURSDAY 12Z AND THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE COULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED THIS FRIDAY AT 00Z). THE
BEST-TRACK WILL BE SOON MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE
HAS BEGUN ITS SOUTHWARD TURN AFTER HAVING HAD A VERY SLOW AND
HESITATING MOVEMENT LAST NIGHT IN CONNECTION WITH CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS. FROM THIS FRIDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING ALSO ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA WILL
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, INITIALLY SLOW TODAY AND THEN
ACCELERATING FROM SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY, WHILE HALIMA SLIDES SOUTH OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE TRACK WILL TURN EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING A
NORTH-EASTERN COMPONENT IN THE TRACK FROM TUESDAY, BUT WITH STRONG
DISPERSION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO A COMPROMISE AMONG THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA WILL REMAIN IN VERY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL SATURDAY (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HIGH SST).
MOREOVER, WITH A MOVEMENT THAT ACCELERATES A LITTLE THIS FRIDAY, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TAKE BETTER ADVANTAGE OF THE AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. ONLY THE OCCURRENCE OF POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
COULD TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS UNTIL SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY, WE CANNOT EXCLUDE THAT THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE REACHED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS (THE
PRESENT FORECAST REACHES 115 KT BUT IT COULD BE EVEN MORE). FROM
SATURDAY EVENING, THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD
FAVOUR CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION AND ALSO BECAUSE OF A
LESS IMPORTANT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AROUND 23S. NEVERTHELESS THIS
WEAKENING COULD BE TEMPORARY AS SHOWN BY SOME MODELS WHICH SUGGEST
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHWESTWARDS AROUND
TUESDAY, FINDING WARM SST AGAIN AND A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 250620
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 25/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 73.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/25 AT 18 UTC:
14.7 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/26 AT 06 UTC:
16.4 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 73.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 73.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.9S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.6S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.5S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.3S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.4S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.0S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.3S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 73.6E.
25MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250015
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/10/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5 S / 73.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 969 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 90 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/03/2022 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 26/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 26/03/2022 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 27/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 27/03/2022 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 28/03/2022 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/03/2022 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 120

120H: 30/03/2022 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE
DANS LA MASSE, S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT AMELIORE, AVEC DES SOMMETS DE
PLUS EN PLUS FROIDS, ET UNE AUGMENTATION DE LA TAILLE ET DE LA
DEFINITION DU CDO, TRADUISANT L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.
L'ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE S'EST EGALEMENT RENFORCE PRES DU CENTRE. UN
OEIL EST PRESENT EN 37 ET 89GHZ SUR LA DERNIERE PASSE AMSR2 DE 2029Z,
ET PASSAGEREMENT SUR LES IMAGES SATELITES EN CANAL IR.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : HALIMA CONTINUE D'ETRE
SOUS INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES EXPLIQUANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE LENTE AVEC DES FLUCTUATIONS TEMPORAIRES EN DIRECTION.
AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
VERS L'OUEST, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE AU NORD
S'ETENDANT AUSSI SUR LA FACADE EST DU SYSTEME, HALIMA VA PRENDRE
PROCHAINEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHE VERS LE SUD EN
S'ACCELERANT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES EST EN
ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO.
A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, HALIMA GLISSANT PLUS AU SUD DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE HALIMA S'ORIENTERA VERS L'EST.
LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT BASCULER PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR LA
FACADE NORD-OUEST DE HALIMA INDUISANT UNE COMPOSANTE NORD-EST DANS LA
TRAJECTOIRE, PRECURSEUR D'UN POSSIBLE REBROUSSEMENT A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE RESTE PROCHE D'UN CONSENSUS DES
GUIDANCES.

ACTUELLEMENT HALIMA CONTINUE DE PRESENTER DES SIGNES
D'INTENSIFICATION ET CE CONTEXTE VA DURER JUSQU'A SAMEDI. EN EFFET,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT ETRE FAVORABLES A UN
DEVELOPPEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE : LE SYSTEME VA
CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUFFISANT, SOUS LA
DORSALE D'ALTITUDE LE PROTEGEANT DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL ET AVEC UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. L'OCCURRENCE DE
CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIENT TEMPERER LE
PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION SAMEDI. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA REMONTEE
D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN NET RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT ENTRAINER UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF PAR INTRUSION D'AIR SEC AU DESSUS DU
CENTRE.

LE SYSTEME HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250015
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 73.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/25 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 120

120H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE PATTERN OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE
MASS, HAS PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVED, WITH INCREASINGLY COLD TOPS, AND AN
INCREASE IN THE SIZE AND DEFINITION OF THE CDO, REFLECTING THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED
NEAR THE CENTER. AN EYE IS PRESENT IN 37 AND 89GHZ ON THE LAST AMSR2
PASS OF 2029Z, AND TEMPORARILY ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES IN IR CHANNEL.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY: HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS EXPLAINING A SLOW
TRAJECTORY WITH TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION. WITH THE SHIFT
OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO EXTENDING ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA WILL SOON TAKE A CLEARER
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY ACCELERATING FROM SATURDAY. ALL THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
IN THE LONGER TERM, AS HALIMA SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE NE RIDGE,
HALIMA'S TRAJECTORY WILL TURN EASTWARD. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ONTO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF HALIMA
INDUCING A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE TRACK, PRECURSOR TO A
POSSIBLE REROUTING ON A LONGER TIME SCALE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

CURRENTLY HALIMA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND THIS
CONTEXT WILL LAST UNTIL SATURDAY. INDEED, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPMENT TO THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE: THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE ON WATERS WITH
SUFFICIENT ENERGY POTENTIAL, UNDER THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE PROTECTING
IT FROM THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OCCURRENCE OF REPLACEMENT CYCLES OF THE
EYEWALL COULD TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ON SATURDAY. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE UPWELLING OF A SOUTHWEST TROUGH SHOULD FAVOUR A
CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY INTRUSION OF DRY AIR OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 250012
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 25/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA) 969 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 73.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/25 AT 12 UTC:
14.3 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/26 AT 00 UTC:
15.8 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241813
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.4 S / 74.3 E
(TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/03/2022 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 25/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 26/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 26/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 27/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 27/03/2022 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2022 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 185

120H: 29/03/2022 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 175

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE
DANS LA MASSE, S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT AMELIORE, AVEC DES SOMMETS DE
PLUS EN PLUS FROIDS, ET UNE AUGMENTATION DE LA TAILLE ET DE LA
DEFINITION DU CDO, TRADUISANT UN RENFORCEMENT DE L'INTENSITE.
L'ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE S'EST EGALEMENT RENFORCE PRES DU CENTRE.. LE
CENTRE SE SITUE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE LA
PLUS MARQUEE.


PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : HALIMA CONTINUE D'ETRE
SOUS INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES EXPLIQUANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE LENTE AVEC DES FLUCTUATIONS TEMPORAIRES EN DIRECTION AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VERS L'OUEST, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD S'ETENDANT AUSSI SUR LA FACADE EST DU SYSTEME,
HALIMA VA PRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHE VERS LE SUD EN
S'ACCELERANT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES EST EN
ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, HALIMA GLISSANT PLUS
AU SUD DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE HALIMA
S'ORIENTERA VERS L'EST. LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT
BASCULER PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DE HALIMA INDUISANT
UNE COMPOSANTE NORD-EST DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE, PRECURSEUR D'UN POSSIBLE
REBROUSSEMENT A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE RESTE
PROCHE D'UN CONSENSUS DES GUIDANCES.

ACTUELLEMENT HALIMA CONTINUE DE PRESENTER DES SIGNES
D'INTENSIFICATION ET CE CONTEXTE VA DURER JUSQU'A SAMEDI. EN EFFET,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT ETRE FAVORABLES A UN
DEVELOPPEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE : LE SYSTEME VA CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
SUFFISANT, SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE LE PROTEGEANT DU CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL ET AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE PLUS RAPIDE QU'ENVISAGEE A COURTE
ECHEANCE, SAUF SI LE SYSTEME RALENTIT UN PEU PLUS SA TRAJECTOIRE, LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE POUVANT VENIR A MANQUER. D'AUTRES PHENOMENES
COMME L'OCCURRENCE DE CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
POURRAIENT AUSSI TEMPERER LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION SAMEDI. A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA REMONTEE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UN NET RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, CE QUI
DEVRAIT ENTRAINER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF PAR INTRUSION D'AIR
SEC AU DESSUS DU CENTRE.

LE SYSTEME HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241813
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 74.3 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/25 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/25 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/26 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 185

120H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE PATTERN OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE
MASS, HAS PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVED, WITH COLDER AND COLDER TOPS, AND AN
INCREASE IN THE SIZE AND DEFINITION OF THE CDO, REFLECTING A
STRENGTHENING OF THE INTENSITY. THE ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY HAS ALSO
INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER. THE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE MOST MARKED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONFLICTING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS EXPLAINING A SLOW TRACK
WITH TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH
THE SHIFT OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO EXTENDING ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA WILL TAKE A TRACK TO THE SOUTH
AND ACCELERATE FROM SATURDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. ON A LONGER TIME SCALE, HALIMA IS SLIDING SOUTH OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, HALIMA COULD TURN EASTWARD. THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD TILT PROGRESSIVELY ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE
OF HALIMA INDUCING A NORTH-EASTERN COMPONENT IN THE TRACK, PRECURSOR
OF A POSSIBLE REROUTING ON A LONGER TIME SCALE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

CURRENTLY HALIMA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND THIS CONTEXT
WILL LAST UNTIL SATURDAY. INDEED, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPMENT TO THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE: THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE ON WATERS WITH
SUFFICIENT ENERGY POTENTIAL, UNDER THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE PROTECTING
IT FROM THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE FASTER THAN
ENVISAGED IN THE SHORT TERM, UNLESS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN ITS TRACK A
LITTLE MORE, AS THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL MAY WEAKEN. OTHER PHENOMENA
SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD ALSO
TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ON SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, THE ASCENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 241811
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 74.3 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/25 AT 06 UTC:
14.0 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/25 AT 18 UTC:
15.1 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 74.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 74.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.7S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.7S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.4S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.6S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.2S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.7S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.0S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 74.3E.
24MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 241200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241252
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.3 S / 74.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/03/2022 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 25/03/2022 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 26/03/2022 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 26/03/2022 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 27/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 27/03/2022 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2022 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 120

120H: 29/03/2022 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A FLUCTUE AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES
HEURES. PRESENTANT D'ABORD UNE AMORCE D'OEIL, HALIMA A MIGRE VERS UNE
CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. LE CENTRE SE SITUE DANS
LE SECTEUR SUD-EST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE LA PLUS MARQUEE. LA
LOCALISATION DANS UNE TELLE CONFIGURATION RESTE DELICATE MAIS LES
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1055UTC PERMETTENT DE PLACER LE CENTRE
SUR UNE POSITION PLUS A L'OUEST. EN TERME D'INTENSITE, L'ANALYSE
DVORAK DE 4.0- PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE 55KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : HALIMA CONTINUE D'ETRE
SOUS INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES EXPLIQUANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE LENTE AVEC DES FLUCTUATIONS TEMPORAIRES EN DIRECTION AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VERS L'OUEST, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD S'ETENDANT AUSSI SUR LA FACADE EST DU SYSTEME,
HALIMA VA PRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHE VERS LE SUD EN
S'ACCELERANT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES EST EN
ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, HALIMA GLISSANT PLUS
AU SUD DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE HALIMA
S'ORIENTERA VERS L'EST. LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT
BASCULER PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DE HALIMA INDUISANT
UNE COMPOSANTE NORD-EST DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE, PRECURSEUR D'UN POSSIBLE
REBROUSSEMENT A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE RESTE
PROCHE D'UN CONSENSUS DES GUIDANCES.

ACTUELLEMENT HALIMA CONTINUE DE PRESENTER DES SIGNES
D'INTENSIFICATION ET CE CONTEXTE VA DURER JUSQU'A SAMEDI. EN EFFET,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT ETRE FAVORABLES A UN
DEVELOPPEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE : LE SYSTEME VA CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
SUFFISANT, SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE LE PROTEGEANT DU CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL ET AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE PLUS RAPIDE QU'ENVISAGEE A COURTE
ECHEANCE, SAUF SI LE SYSTEME RALENTIT UN PEU PLUS SA TRAJECTOIRE, LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE POUVANT VENIR A MANQUER. D'AUTRES PHENOMENES
COMME L'OCCURRENCE DE CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
POURRAIENT AUSSI TEMPERER LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION SAMEDI. A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA REMONTEE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UN NET RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, CE QUI
DEVRAIT ENTRAINER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF PAR INTRUSION D'AIR
SEC AU DESSUS DU CENTRE.

LE SYSTEME HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241252
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 74.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/25 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/25 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 120

120H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS FLUCTUATED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. AT FIRST
SHOWING A BEGINNING OF AN EYE, HALIMA HAS MIGRATED TO A CENTER
CONFIGURATION EMBEDDED IN THE MASS. THE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF THE MOST MARKED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE
LOCALIZATION IN SUCH A CONFIGURATION REMAINS DELICATE BUT THE SSMIS
MICROWAVE DATA OF 1055UTC ALLOW TO PLACE THE CENTER ON A MORE WESTERN
POSITION. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 4.0- ALLOWS
TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF 55KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONFLICTING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS EXPLAINING A SLOW TRACK
WITH TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH
THE SHIFT OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO EXTENDING ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA WILL TAKE A TRACK TO THE SOUTH
AND ACCELERATE FROM SATURDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. ON A LONGER TIME SCALE, HALIMA IS SLIDING SOUTH OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, HALIMA COULD TURN EASTWARD. THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD TILT PROGRESSIVELY ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE
OF HALIMA INDUCING A NORTH-EASTERN COMPONENT IN THE TRACK, PRECURSOR
OF A POSSIBLE REROUTING ON A LONGER TIME SCALE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

CURRENTLY HALIMA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND THIS CONTEXT
WILL LAST UNTIL SATURDAY. INDEED, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPMENT TO THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE: THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE ON WATERS WITH
SUFFICIENT ENERGY POTENTIAL, UNDER THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE PROTECTING
IT FROM THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE FASTER THAN
ENVISAGED IN THE SHORT TERM, UNLESS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN ITS TRACK A
LITTLE MORE, AS THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL MAY WEAKEN. OTHER PHENOMENA
SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD ALSO
TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ON SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, THE ASCENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 241228 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 74.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/25 AT 00 UTC:
13.7 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/25 AT 12 UTC:
14.7 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 241201
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 74.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/25 AT 00 UTC:
13.9 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/25 AT 12 UTC:
14.7 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240656
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/10/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 75.2 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/03/2022 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 25/03/2022 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 25/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 26/03/2022 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 26/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 27/03/2022 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2022 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110

120H: 29/03/2022 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
INCURVEE D'HALIMA A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER ET MIGRE SUR LES DERNIERS
INSTANTS EN OEIL EN BANDE SUR LES IMAGES VISIBLES. LA PASSE
MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 0131UTC PLAIDE POUR UN CLASSEMENT EN FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE ALORS QUE LES DONNES ASCAT DE 0402UTC SOUS-EVALUENT
UN PEU LES 50KT QUE L'ON PEUT ESTIMER VIA L'ANALYSE DVORAK. A 00UTC,
HALIMA EST DONC CLASSEE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DANS UNE PHASE
D'INTENSIFCATION NOTABLE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : HALIMA CONTINUE D'ETRE
SOUS INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES EXPLICANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE LENTE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24-36H. AVEC LE DECALAGE DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VERS L'OUEST, LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE AU NORD S'ETENDANT AUSSI SUR
LA FACADE EST DU SYSTEME, HALIMA VA PRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
FRANCHE VERS LE SUD EN S'ACCELERANT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. L'ENSEMBLE
DES GUIDANCES EST EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE,
HALIMA GLISSE PLUS AU SUD DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, HALIMA
POURRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS L'EST. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE RESTE PROCHE
D'UN CONSENSUS DES GUIDANCES.

ACTUELLEMENT HALIMA PRESENTE DES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION ET CE
CONTEXTE VA DURER JUSQU'A SAMEDI. EN EFFET, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT ETRE FAVORABLES A UN DEVELOPPEMENT AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE : LE SYSTEME VA
CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUFFISANT, SOUS LA
DORSALE D'ALTITUDE LE PROTEGEANT DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL ET AVEC UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. L'INTENSIFICATION
POURRAIT ETRE PLUS RAPIDE QU'ENVISAGEE A COURTE ECHEANCE. D'AUTRES
PHENOMENES COMME L'OCCURRENCE DE CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL POURRAIENT AUSSI TEMPERER LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION
SAMEDI. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA REMONTEE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST
DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN NET RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST,
CE QUI DEVRAIT ENTRAINER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF PAR
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC AU DESSUS DU CENTRE.

LE SYSTEME HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240656
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 75.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/24 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/25 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/25 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/26 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110

120H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN OF HALIMA
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND MIGRATES OVER THE LAST FEW MOMENTS INTO
A BAND EYE ON THE VISIBLE IMAGES. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS OF 0131UTC
SUGGESTS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM CLASSIFICATION WHILE THE 0402UTC
ASCAT SWATH UNDERESTIMATE A FEW 50KT THAT CAN BE ESTIMATED VIA THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS. AT 00UTC, HALIMA IS THUS CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM IN A PHASE OF NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS EXPLAINING A SLOW TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24-36H. WITH THE SHIFT OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO EXTENDING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
HALIMA WILL TAKE A TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND ACCELERATE FROM SATURDAY.
ALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. ON A LONGER TIME
SCALE, HALIMA IS SLIDING SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, HALIMA
COULD TURN EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

CURRENTLY HALIMA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND THIS CONTEXT
WILL LAST UNTIL SATURDAY. INDEED, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPMENT TO THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE: THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE ON WATERS WITH
SUFFICIENT ENERGY POTENTIAL, UNDER THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE PROTECTING
IT FROM THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE FASTER THAN
ENVISAGED IN THE SHORT TERM. OTHER PHENOMENA SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE
OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD ALSO TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS ON SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE ASCENT OF AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION
OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 240611
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 75.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/24 AT 18 UTC:
13.8 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/25 AT 06 UTC:
14.5 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.2S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.0S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.3S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.3S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.7S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.3S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.1S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 75.5E.
24MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (CHARLOTTE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240056
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 75.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/03/2022 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65

24H: 25/03/2022 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 25/03/2022 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 26/03/2022 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 140 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 26/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 215 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 27/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/03/2022 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 29/03/2022 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'HALIMA
A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC LA FORMATION D'UNE BANDE INCURVEE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET PEUT ETRE L'APPARITION D'UN POINT CHAUD SUR
LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 2328Z
(ARRIVEE APRES LE RESEAU) CONFIRME LA NETTE CONSOLIDATION DU
CIRCULATION INTERNE. EN ACCORD AVEC CETTE EVOLUTION ET LES DERNIERES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST REHAUSSEE A 45KT.
MAIS CETTE ESTIMATION EST PEUT ETRE UN PEU TROP CONSERVATRICE.

LE SYSTEME A NETTEMENT RALENTI CES DERNIERES HEURES. IL A COMMENCE A
DEBUTER UNE VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD, EN EFFET, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST ET UNE
FAIBLESSE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER AU SUD DU SYSTEME. CES FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS. VENDREDI, ALORS QUE LA FAIBLESSE SE MAINTIENT AU SUD,
UNE DORSALE AXEE DE FACON MERIDIENNE ENTRE 80E ET 90E VIENT RENFORCER
UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE SECTEUR NORD FAISANT ACCELERER LE SYSTEME SUR UN
CAP MERIDIEN. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES EST EN ACCORD AVEC CE
SCENARIO. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD DU SYSTEME, HALIMA POURRAIT S'ORIENTER
VERS L'EST. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE RESTE PROCHE D'UN CONSENSUS DES
DETERMINISTES DE IFS ET GFS.

JUSQU'A SAMEDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT ETRE
FAVORABLE A UN DEVELOPPEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE : LE SYSTEME VA CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A FORT
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE LE PROTEGEANT DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL ET AVEC UNE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CEPENDANT LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT
ETRE TEMPORAIREMENT RALENTI JUSQU'A CE SOIR EN RAISON DE LA FAIBLE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. HALIMA POURRAIT ETRE AFFECTE PAR LE
REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES QU'IL GENERE. NEANMOINS LA
TENDANCE RECENTE OBSERVEE NE PLAIDE PAS POUR CETTE HYPOTHESE ET
L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE PLUS RAPIDE QU'ENVISAGEE
ACTUELLEMENT. D'AUTRES PROCESSUS COMME L'OCCURRENCE DE CYCLES DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT AUSSI TEMPERER LE PROCESSUS
D'INTENSIFICATION SAMEDI. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA REMONTEE D'UN
THALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN NET RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT ENTRAINER UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF PAR INTRUSION D'AIR SEC AU DESSUS DU
CENTRE.

LE SYSTEME HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENANCE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240056
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 75.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/24 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

24H: 2022/03/25 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/25 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.5-


DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, HALIMA'S CLOUD PATTERN KEPT ON IMPROVING
WITH THE BUILDING OF A CURVED BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
POSSIBLY THE APPEARANCE OF A WARM SPOT ON THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGES.
2328Z SSMIS PASS (AVAILABLE AFTER THE RUN TIME) CONFIRMS THE
SINGIFICANT IMPROVMENT OF THE INNER CORE. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
EVOLUTION AND THE LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, THE
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45KT EVEN IF THIS COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN DURING THE LAST HOURS. IT HAS
STARTED A TURN SOUTHWARD. INDEED, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND A WEAKNESS SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THESE CONFLICTING STEERING FLOWS SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW
MOTION AT FIRST. ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE WEAKNESS PERSISTS TO THE
SOUTH, A MERIDIAN ORIENTED RIDGE BETWEEN 80TH AND 90TH WILL
STRENGTHEN A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAKING THE SYSTEM ACCELERATE ON
A MERIDIAN COURSE. IN THE LONGER TERM, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA COULD MOVE
EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF IFS
AND GFS DETERMINISTS.

UNTIL SATURDAY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE:
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE PROTECTING IT FROM VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS COULD BE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN TODAY BECAUSE OF THE SLOW
MOTION. HALIMA COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE INDUCED COOLING OF THE
UNDERLYING WATERS. HOWEVER THE OBSEVRED RECENT TREND DO NO PLEAD FOR
THIS SCENARIO AND THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE MORE RAPID THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. OTHER PROCESSES SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD ALSO MODERATE THE INTENSIFICATION ON
SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE ASCENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 240032
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 75.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/24 AT 12 UTC:
13.2 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/25 AT 00 UTC:
13.8 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231834
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.7 S / 75.9 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/03/2022 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 85

24H: 24/03/2022 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 25/03/2022 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 25/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 150 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 26/03/2022 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SO: 150 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 26/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SO: 220 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2022 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 435 SO: 220 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 28/03/2022 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SO: 195 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 150

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'HALIMA
S'EST AMELIOREE. LE CENTRE DE SURFACE S'EST REPLACE AU COEUR DE
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AVEC DES SOMMETS PARTICULIEREMENT FROIDS. ELLE
S'EST DONC RENFORCEE AU VENT DU CISAILLEMENT (CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
EST EN BAISSE D'APRES LE CIMSS). LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES TEMOIGNENT DE
CETTE AMELIORATION AVEC DES SIGNES DE COURBURE PLUS NETS (SSMIS DE
1218Z ET 1108Z) EN ACCORD AVEC CETTE EVOLUTION, LES DONNEES DE LA
PASSE ASCAT DE 1655Z ET LES DERNIERES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET
OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST REHAUSSEE A 40KT.

LE SYSTEME A NETTEMENT RALENTI CES DERNIERES HEURES SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ENCORE OUEST. IL DEVRAIT DEBUTER UNE VIRAGE EN DIRECTION
DU SUD, EN EFFET, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE
DECALE VERS L'OUEST ET UNE FAIBLESSE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. CES FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE TRAJECTOIRE
LENTE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. VENDREDI, ALORS QUE LA FAIBLESSE SE
MAINTIENT AU SUD, UNE DORSALE AXEE DE FACON MERIDIENNE ENTRE 80E ET
90E VIENT RENFORCER UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE SECTEUR NORD FAISANT
ACCELERER LE SYSTEME SUR UN CAP MERIDIEN. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES
EST EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO. TOUTEFOIS LA LOCALISATION ET LE
TIMING DE CE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD RESTENT ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAIN AU
REGARD DE LA DISPERSION AFFICHEE PAR LES GUIDANCES. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD
DU SYSTEME, HALIMA POURRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS L'EST. LA PREVISION
OFFICIELLE RESTE PROCHE D'UN CONSENSUS DES DETERMINISTES DE IFS ET
GFS.

JUSQU'A SAMEDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT ETRE
FAVORABLE A UN DEVELOPPEMENT A STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE : LE SYSTEME VA CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A FORT
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE LE PROTEGEANT DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL ET AVEC UNE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CEPENDANT LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT
ETRE TEMPORAIREMENT RALENTI D'ICI DEMAIN EN RAISON DE LA FAIBLE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. HALIMA POURRAIT ETRE AFFECTE PAR LE
REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES QU'IL GENERE. D'AUTRES
PROCESSUS COMME L'OCCURRENCE DE CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL POURRAIT AUSSI TEMPERER LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION
VENDREDI OU SAMEDI. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA REMONTEE D'UN THALWEG PAR
LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN NET RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT ENTRAINER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF
PAR INTRUSION D'AIR SEC AU DESSUS DU CENTRE.

LE SYSTEME HALIMA NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENANCE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 75.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/24 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/24 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2022/03/25 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2022/03/25 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/26 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 435 SW: 220 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0


DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, HALIMA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. THE
SURFACE CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE CORE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH PARTICULARLY COLD TOPS. CONVECTION HAS THEREFORE INCREASED
UPSHEAR ( EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS). THE
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH STRONGER SIGNS OF
CURVATURE ( 1218Z AND 1108Z SSMIS) IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION,
1655Z ASCAT PASS DATA AND THE LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES,
THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40KT.

THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN DURING THE LAST HOURS STILL ON A
WESTERN TRACK. IT SHOULD START A TURN SOUTHWARD, INDEED, THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND A
WEAKNESS SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THESE CONFLICTING
STEERING FLOWS SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW MOTION AT FIRST. ON FRIDAY, WHILE
THE WEAKNESS PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH, A MERIDIAN ORIENTED RIDGE BETWEEN
80TH AND 90TH WILL STRENGTHEN A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAKING THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATE ON A MERIDIAN COURSE. ALL THE GUIDANCE AGREE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS TURN
SOUTHWARD IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN IN VIEW OF THE SPREAD AMONG THE
GUIDANCE. IN THE LONGER TERM, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA COULD MOVE EASTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF IFS AND GFS
DETERMINISTS.

UNTIL SATURDAY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE:
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE PROTECTING IT FROM VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS COULD BE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN TOMORROW BECAUSE OF THE LOW
SPEED OF MOVEMENT. HALIMA COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE INDUCED COOLING OF
THE UNDERLYING WATER. OTHER PROCESSES SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD ALSO MODERATE THE INTENSIFICATION ON
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE ASCENT OF AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION
OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 231823
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 75.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/24 AT 06 UTC:
13.0 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/24 AT 18 UTC:
13.6 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 75.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 75.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.8S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.4S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.3S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.3S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.8S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.7S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 75.7E.
23MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (CHARLOTTE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231315
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/10/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.6 S / 76.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/03/2022 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 24/03/2022 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 25/03/2022 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SO: 55 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 25/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 26/03/2022 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 140 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 26/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/03/2022 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SO: 240 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 28/03/2022 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.5+

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE, RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ FLUCTUANTE, AVEC UNE
CIRCULATION QUI EST APPARU TEMPORAIREMENT EN BORDURE NORD-EST DE LA
CONVECTION EN COURS DE MATINEE. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES RECENTE
(AMSR2 DE 0855Z) CONFIRME LA COURBURE DANS LES BASSES COUCHES, ET A
PERMIS DE RELOCALISER LA POSITION ANALYSA E A 06Z A UN PEU PLUS DE
30MN A L'EST.

LE SYSTEME A NETTEMENT RALENTI EN MATINEE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE ENCORE
OUEST. IL DEVRAIT DEBUTER UNE VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD, EN EFFET,
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST
ET UNE FAIBLESSE DEVRAIT SE FAIRE SENTIR DE PLUS EN PLUS AU SUD DU
SYSTEME.
EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE JEUDI MAIS SURTOUT VENDREDI, ALORS QUE LA
FAIBLESSE SE MAINTIENT AU SUD, UNE DORSALE AXEE DE FACON MERIDIENNE
ENTRE 80E ET 90E VIENT RENFORCER UN FLUX DIRECTEUR SE SECTEUR NORD
FAISANT ACCELERER LE SYSTEME SUR UN CAP MERIDIEN. L'ENSEMBLE DES
GUIDANCES EST EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO. TOUTEFOIS LA LOCALISATION
ET LE TIMING DE CE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD RESTENT ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAIN
AU REGARD DE LA DISPERSION AFFICHEE PAR LES GUIDANCES. LA PREVISION
OFFICIELLE RESTE PROCHE D'UN CONSENSUS DES DETERMINISTES DE IFS ET
GFS.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT A BAISSE SUR LE SYSTEME COMME LE
MONTRE L'EPANCHEMENT DE CIRRUS AUTOUR DE LA CIRCULATION. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TOUJOURS PREVUES S'AMELIORER
SENSIBLEMENT: LE SYSTEME VA CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A FORT POTENTIEL
ENERGETIQUE (SST A 29-30C). LA TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST VA
PROGRESSIVEMENT PLACER LE SYSTEME EN PHASE AVEC LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE
ET DES CONDITIONS ASSOCIEES DE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL. ENFIN,
LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE SERA FAVORISEE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS COTE
EQUATORIAL PUIS A PARTIR DE JEUDI SUR LES FACES NORD ET SUD DU
SYSTEME. LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE TEMPORAIREMENT
RALENTI AU MOMENT DU CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE EN RAISON DU
RALENTISSEMENT IMPORTANT DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT A CE MOMENT LA.
LE SYSTEME, POURRAIT ETRE AFFECTE PAR DES EAUX DE MER QU'IL A
LUI-MEME REFROIDIES. D'AUTRES PROCESSUS COMME L'OCCURRENCE DE CYCLES
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT AUSSI TEMPERER LE PROCESSUS
D'INTENSIFICATION DANS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTANT
BONNES AU MOINS JUSQU'A VENDREDI SOIR OU SAMEDI MATIN. AU FIL DU
WEEK-END, UNE POSSIBLE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST POURRAIT
COMMENCER A PROGRESSIVEMENT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME.

SUR LE SCENARIO ACTUEL, CE PHENOMENE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT RESTER LOIN
DE TOUTE TERRE HABITEE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231315
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 76.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/24 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/24 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/25 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/25 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL QUITE FLUCTUATING, WITH A
CIRCULATION THAT APPEARED TEMPORARILY AT THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING. THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSR2
FROM 0855Z) CONFIRMS THE CURVATURE IN THE LOW LAYERS, AND HAS ALLOWED
TO RELOCATE THE POSITION ANALYZED AT 06Z A LITTLE MORE THAN 30MN TO
THE EAST.

THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN IN THE MORNING ON A STILL WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY. IT SHOULD START A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH, INDEED, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND A WEAKNESS SHOULD BE FELT MORE AND MORE IN THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE
WEAKNESS IS MAINTAINED TO THE SOUTH, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ORIENTED MERIDIAN BETWEEN 80TH AND 90TH STRENGTHENS A NORTHERLY
DIRECTIONAL FLOW MAKING THE SYSTEM ACCELERATE ON A MERIDIAN COURSE.
ALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS TURN TO THE SOUTH IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN IN VIEW OF THE DISPERSION DISPLAYED BY THE GUIDELINES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF IFS AND GFS
DETERMINISTS.

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED ON THE SYSTEM AS SHOWN BY THE
CIRRUS SPREAD AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY: THE SYSTEM WILL
CIRCULATE OVER WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL (SST AT 29-30C). THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY WILL PROGRESSIVELY PLACE THE SYSTEM IN
PHASE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
CONDITIONS. FINALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORED AT
FIRST ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE AND THEN FROM THURSDAY ON THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD
BE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN AT THE TIME OF THE CHANGE OF TRAJECTORY
BECAUSE OF THE IMPORTANT SLOWING DOWN OF THE SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT AT
THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM, COULD BE AFFECTED BY SEA WATER THAT IT HAS
ITSELF COOLED. OTHER PROCESSES SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD ALSO TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, A POSSIBLE INCREASE
IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAR FROM ANY
INHABITED LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 231213
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 76.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND EXTENDING UP TO 350
NM IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN SECTORS.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/24 AT 00 UTC:
12.8 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/24 AT 12 UTC:
13.1 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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