Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FAY-20
in United States, Canada

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-07-11 08:35


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 110833
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

The system has lacked significant organized deep convection for
some time now, and therefore it has degenerated into a
post-tropical low pressure system. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated, perhaps generously, at 30 kt over the Atlantic waters
well to the southeast of the center. Continued weakening is
likely, and the cyclone should dissipate over eastern Canada by
late Sunday.

The low is moving just east of due north or around 010/15 kt. Over
the next day or so, the system should continue to move between a
mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and a trough near the
Great Lakes until it loses its identity.

This is the last advisory on this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 42.4N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 12/0600Z 49.0N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 12/1800Z 52.5N 67.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-11 08:35


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...FAY DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN NEW YORK...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay
was located near latitude 42.4 North, longitude 73.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28
km/h). A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward
speed is expected today, tonight and Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will continue to move
across portions of eastern New York this morning, then across
northwestern New England later today and over southeastern Canada
tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next day so, and the
post-tropical cyclone is likely to dissipate by late Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The post-tropical cyclone is expected to produce 1 to 2
inches of rain with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its
track from eastern New York into portions of New England. This
rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with
poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river
flooding is not expected; however, rapid rises on small streams and
isolated minor flooding is possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-11 08:33


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 110831
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020
0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 73.9W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 73.9W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 74.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.0N 70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 52.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.4N 73.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-07-11 05:34


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110532
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 74.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from East Rockaway New York to Watch
Hill Rhode Island including most of Long Island and Long Island
Sound has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 74.0 West. Fay is
moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will
move across portions of eastern New York this morning, then
across western New England into southeastern Canada later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected today, and the
system is expected to become a post-tropical low later this morning
and dissipate on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern
Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeast New York, and
portions of New England. This rain may result in flash flooding and
urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest
amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this
time; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor
flooding is possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-11 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 110234
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Satellite and radar data indicate that Fay is no longer generating
organized deep convection as the center moves into northern New
Jersey. A combination of radar, aircraft, buoy, and ship data show
that 30-35 kt winds are occurring over the water south of central
and western long Island, and based on this the initial intensity is
reduced to 35 kt. The central pressure of 1001 mb is based on
surface observations.

Barring the return of convection, Fay should continue to weaken and
become post-tropical on Saturday. After that, the system is
expected to dissipate on Sunday as it merges with a frontal system
over southeastern Canada. The new intensity forecast has only
minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now northward or 005 degrees at 15 kt. The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged, as Fay will be steered
generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation
between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an
approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The
storm is moving a little to the left of the previous forecast, so
the new forecast is nudged to the left due mainly to the initial
position and motion. The new forecast lies close to the consensus
models.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds are now
occurring well away from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania, northeast New Jersey
and across southeast New York, into portions of New England may
result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor
drainage. Isolated minor flooding is possible; however, widespread
river flooding is not expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for several more hours
over portions of coastal New York and Connecticut, including most
of Long Island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 41.0N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/1200Z 43.6N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 47.5N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 51.1N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-11 02:35


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 110231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH AND WEST OF EAST
ROCKAWAY...NEW YORK.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST ROCKAWAY NEW YORK TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
INCLUDING MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 74.2W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 74.2W AT 11/0300Z...INLAND
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 74.3W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.6N 73.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 47.5N 71.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 51.1N 68.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 74.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-07-11 02:34


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 74.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM NW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued south and west of East
Rockaway, New York.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East Rockaway New York to Watch Hill Rhode Island
including most of Long Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 74.2 West. Fay is
moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Fay will move across portions of southeastern New York tonight,
then across western New England into southeastern Canada on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Fay moves
farther inland, and the system is expected to become a post-
tropical low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
over water to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the
web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern
Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeast New York, and
portions of New England. This rain may result in flash flooding and
urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest
amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this
time; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor
flooding is possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area for the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-10 23:44


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 102342
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...FAY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.1N 74.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island
including Long Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located over eastern New Jersey near latitude 40.1 North, longitude
74.3 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Fay will move near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this
evening and then move inland over southeastern New York and western
New England tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after
Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
mainly over water to the east and southeast of the center. NOAA
buoy 44065 recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54 km/h) and
a wind gust of 43 mph (68 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the
web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from
northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New
Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain
could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with
poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on
small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but
widespread river flooding is not expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible this evening
across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-10 20:48


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 102046
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Fay's structure is looking less tropical this afternoon. While the
central circulation is decidedly warm core, it is lacking deep
convection and consists entirely of low to mid-level clouds. The
deepest convection is found in cloud bands located well east and
southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt, with
the strongest winds found in a convective band northeast of the
center as seen in velocity data from the KOKX WSR-88D. The last fix
from the earlier aircraft mission provided a central pressure
estimate of 998 mb.

Gradual weakening should occur from here on as the cyclone begins to
interact more with land, however stronger winds are expected to
persist over water even after the center moves inland tonight. Fay
is shown as a 35-kt tropical storm inland at 12 hours, but those
winds are expected to be over water well southeast of the center by
that time. On Saturday, Fay should weaken as a post-tropical cyclone
and dissipate in 36 to 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 010/12 kt. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally
northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a
mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The new NHC track
forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to
affect areas well away from the cyclone's center.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania
northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New
England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas
with poor drainage. While isolated minor flooding is possible,
widespread river flooding is not expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and
tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts
of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 39.5N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 11/0600Z 41.7N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 45.7N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 12/0600Z 49.6N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-07-10 20:48


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 102046
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND LONG ISLAND...
...FAY MAKES LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW
JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 74.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Great Egg
Inlet, New Jersey, including southern Delaware Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island
including Long Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery indicated that the
center of Tropical Storm Fay has made landfall along the coast of
New Jersey about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of Atlantic City,
near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward to north-
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight
and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move
near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this evening and then
move inland over southeastern New York and western New England
tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after
the Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. A Weatherflow
site at Larchmont Harbor, New York, recently reported a sustained
wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). JFK
airport in New York City recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph
(72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the
web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from
northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New
Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain
could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with
poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on
small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but
widespread river flooding is not expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible late this
afternoon and evening across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast
New York, and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-07-10 20:47


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 102045
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF GREAT EGG
INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 74.3W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 160SE 0SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 74.3W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.7N 73.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.7N 72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.6N 69.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 74.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2020-07-10 17:34


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101732
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS FAY'S CENTER NEARS THE JERSEY SHORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 74.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound
* Southern Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 74.5 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is
forecast to move near the New Jersey coast this afternoon and
evening and move inland over the mid-Atlantic and northeast United
States tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today while the center remains
over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland,
and Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow site at Lewes, Delaware, recently
reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 53
mph (86 km/h). Another Weatherflow station at Seaside Heights, New
Jersey, recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a
wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from Delaware
northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York,
and southern New England. The rain may result in flash flooding and
urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest
amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this
time.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today across coastal
areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-07-10 14:53


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 101451
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Fay's circulation currently consists of a small low-level center
rotating around inside of a larger circulation. Deep convection is
displaced well to the north and southeast of the center as water
vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped into the circulation.
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay
this morning found that the pressure has fallen to around 999 mb,
and based on a blend of the SFMR peak winds of 45 kt and a 925-mb
peak flight level wind of 65 kt, the initial intensity is set to 50
kt for this advisory.

The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one.
Little change in strength is expected before Fay's center moves
inland later today or this evening, with weakening expected after
that time. While a 48-h forecast point is provided, most of the
models show the vortex dissipating by that time.

The initial motion estimate is 005/10. Fay will be steered generally
northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a
mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Little change was
made to the NHC track forecast, which lies close to the previous one
and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to
affect areas well away from the cyclone's center.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England may
result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor
drainage. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and
tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts
of Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long
Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 38.4N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1200Z 43.2N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z 47.1N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 50.7N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-07-10 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 74.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound
* Southern Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 38.4 North, longitude 74.5 West. Fay is moving toward the
north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move
near the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and evening and move
inland over the mid-Atlantic and northeast United States tonight and
Saturday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast today while the center remains over water. Weakening
should begin after the center moves inland, and Fay is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression by early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station at Lewes, Delaware, recently
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of
50 mph (80 km/h). A National Ocean Service observing site at Lewes
recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind
gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from Delaware
northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York,
and southern New England. The rain may result in flash flooding and
urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest
amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this
time.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today across coastal
areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-07-10 14:49


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 101447
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020
1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG
ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 74.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 74.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 74.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.2N 73.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 47.1N 71.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 50.7N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 74.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2020-07-10 12:02


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 101200
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar
indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north
and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching
the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few
hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay.

No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts,
however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant
at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes
were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts.

Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800
AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland
Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These
rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New
Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1200Z 37.6N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-07-10 12:01


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101159
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DELAWARE
COASTLINE AS HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 74.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick
Island Delaware, including southern Delaware Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound
* Southern Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 37.6 North, longitude 74.7 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward to north-
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is
forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland
over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late tonight
or on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight while the
center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station at Lewes, Delaware recently
reported a sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 39
mph (63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower
Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey,
eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England.
These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts
occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning in the next few hours and spread northward
through the warning area tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of
New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-07-10 12:00


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 101158
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020
1200 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK
ISLAND DELAWARE...INCLUDING SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG
ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 74.7W AT 10/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 74.7W AT 10/1200Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 74.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 74.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2020-07-10 11:26


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 101124
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
725 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND
DELAWARE INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY...

Surface observations and radar data indicate that tropical-storm-
force winds now extend farther to the west of the center of Fay.
This necessitates an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning
southward from Cape May, New Jersey, to Fenwick Island, Delaware,
including the southern Delaware Bay.

A special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200
UTC) intermediate advisory to update the forecast and warnings for
Fay.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-07-10 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100842
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay early this
morning found that the storm had strengthened slightly, with
maximum SFMR-observed surface winds near 45 kt. Additionally, the
minimum central pressure had fallen a few mb since yesterday.
Since the center of the cyclone is exposed on the southwest side of
the main area of deep convection, and southwesterly shear over the
system is forecast to persist, little if any additional
strengthening is anticipated before landfall. Weakening should
commence after the center moves inland in 12-24 hours. The official
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model
consensus aids.

Center fixes from the Air Force plane show that the storm continues
moving northward at a slightly faster pace, or 360/9 kt. During
the next couple of days, Fay should move between a mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic and a short-wave trough dropping into the
Ohio Valley region. There has been little change to the official
track forecast, which remains close to the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus tracks.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland
Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These
rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 37.4N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-10 08:43


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...FAY SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 74.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 74.8 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move
inland over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late
tonight or on Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today and
tonight while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin
after the center moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the northeast and southeast of the center.

The Air Force plane reported a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb
(29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower
Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey,
eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England.
These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts
occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area today and spread northward through the
warning area tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for portions
of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of
New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-10 08:43


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100841
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020
0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG
ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 74.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 74.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 74.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-07-10 05:37


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100535
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...FAY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES ...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 74.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 36.7
North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 8
mph (13 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the
mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland over the mid-Atlantic
or the northeast United States late tonight or on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight
while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after
the center moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force plane is
1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 8 inches along and near its track across the mid
Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England.
These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts
occur.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area today and spread northward through the
warning area tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for portions
of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of
New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-10 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 100402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.07.2020

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 111.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.07.2020 0 18.1N 111.6W 991 44
1200UTC 10.07.2020 12 19.1N 113.8W 986 47
0000UTC 11.07.2020 24 19.9N 116.5W 984 49
1200UTC 11.07.2020 36 20.3N 119.1W 990 43
0000UTC 12.07.2020 48 20.8N 121.9W 994 41
1200UTC 12.07.2020 60 21.0N 124.3W 998 38
0000UTC 13.07.2020 72 21.4N 126.8W 1000 36
1200UTC 13.07.2020 84 22.0N 129.2W 1004 32
0000UTC 14.07.2020 96 22.7N 131.7W 1007 29
1200UTC 14.07.2020 108 23.5N 134.5W 1010 26
0000UTC 15.07.2020 120 24.1N 137.1W 1012 25
1200UTC 15.07.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N 74.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.07.2020 0 35.8N 74.7W 1008 30
1200UTC 10.07.2020 12 37.1N 75.2W 1005 32
0000UTC 11.07.2020 24 39.0N 74.5W 1002 29
1200UTC 11.07.2020 36 42.3N 73.4W 1000 27
0000UTC 12.07.2020 48 46.5N 73.4W 996 31
1200UTC 12.07.2020 60 49.8N 72.2W 990 19
0000UTC 13.07.2020 72 50.6N 71.8W 986 29
1200UTC 13.07.2020 84 49.6N 70.3W 996 24
0000UTC 14.07.2020 96 49.4N 69.0W 1004 21
1200UTC 14.07.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100401

>

2020-07-10 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 100401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.07.2020

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 111.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.07.2020 18.1N 111.6W MODERATE
12UTC 10.07.2020 19.1N 113.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.07.2020 19.9N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 20.3N 119.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.07.2020 20.8N 121.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2020 21.0N 124.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 21.4N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 22.0N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2020 22.7N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2020 23.5N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2020 24.1N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N 74.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.07.2020 35.8N 74.7W WEAK
12UTC 10.07.2020 37.1N 75.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2020 39.0N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 42.3N 73.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 46.5N 73.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2020 49.8N 72.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.07.2020 50.6N 71.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 49.6N 70.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.07.2020 49.4N 69.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100401

>

2020-07-10 02:42


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100239
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation center of Fay is elongated northeast-southwest, with
satellite and radar data showing a strong convective cluster at the
northeastern end of the elongation. There have been no
observations near the center during the past few hours, and the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from
the previous advisory. An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fay.

Due to the elongated center and the possibility the center is
trying to re-form near the convection, the initial motion is a
somewhat uncertain 010/7. There is no change to the forecast
philosophy from the previous advisory, and essentially no change to
the forecast track. Fay is expected to move generally northward
between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an
approaching mid-latitude trough for 24-36 h, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast until dissipation between 60-72 h. The
guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, and the
new forecast lies close to the various consensus models.

Fay is currently over the Gulf Stream and within an area of light
to moderate westerly shear caused by an upper-level trough to its
west and southwest. This is producing an environment that should
allow a little strengthening for the next 12-24 h. After that, the
storm should weaken as it passes over cooler waters north of the
Gulf Stream, followed by landfall over the northeastern United
States. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the
previous forecast in calling for extratropical transition between
48-60 h and dissipation shortly thereafter.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 36.3N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-10 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100238
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

...FAY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA ...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 74.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 74.8 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north-
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is
forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday or Friday
night, and move inland over the northeast United States late Friday
night or on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday while the
center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 8 inches along and near the track of Fay across
the mid Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New
England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest
amounts occur.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward
through the warning area Friday night.

STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for portions
of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Friday over portions
of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-10 02:40


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100238
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020
0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG
ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 74.8W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 74.8W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 74.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-07-09 23:43


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 092341
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

...FAY MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 74.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 74.8 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north-
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is
forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, and move
inland over the northeast United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday.
Weakening should begin after the center moves inland on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along
and near the track of Fay across the mid-Atlantic states into
southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result
in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward
through the warning area Friday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-09 21:00


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 092057
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have
shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North
Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer
Banks today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the
center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and
that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east
and southeast of the center.  Based on these observations, the
system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity
of 40 kt.

Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an
area of light to moderate westerly shear. These environmental
conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday.
After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the
mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of
the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification. Fay
should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or
Saturday.

Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a
highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally
northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic
and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The 12Z dynamical model
guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close
to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.  With the recent center
reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the
dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model
fields imply. As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side
of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is
indicated in the model fields.

The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the
mid-Atlantic states to southern New England.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-09 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 092055
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS FORMED
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 74.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey
northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and
Long Island Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to north-
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is
forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, and move
inland over the northeast United States on Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and
Friday. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along
and near the track of Fay across the mid-Atlantic states into
southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result
in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward
through the warning area Friday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-09 20:57


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 092055
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020
2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND
LONG ISLAND SOUND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG
ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 74.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 74.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 74.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 74.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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