Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for JUDY-23
in Vanuatu
28 Feb 2023 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JUDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Vanuatu, New Caledonia
Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (28 Feb 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Vanuatu)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 176 km/h 0.7 m 426 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 0.7 m 710 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 50 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2023 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3Vanuatu107 
CAT. 2Vanuatu11,023 
CAT. 1Vanuatu, New Caledonia39,301
+
Vanuatu39,295 
New Caledonia06 
Tropical StormVanuatu117,230 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 Feb 2023 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Feb 2023 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Feb 2023 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Feb 2023 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Feb 2023 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 6 28 Feb 2023 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 7 28 Feb 2023 12:00 151 7 thousand
- - - - Solomon Islands, Vanuatu
GREEN 8 28 Feb 2023 18:00 194 50 thousand
- - Vanuatu, New Caledonia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2023 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmVanuatu4,897 
250-500 mmVanuatu26,959 
100-250 mmVanuatu, New Caledonia102,508
+
Vanuatu102,501 
New Caledonia06 
50-100 mmVanuatu24,421 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 Feb 2023 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Feb 2023 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Feb 2023 12:00 225 Few people
- - - - Solomon Islands
Blue 4 27 Feb 2023 18:00 213 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 28 Feb 2023 00:00 190 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
Blue 6 28 Feb 2023 06:00 279 Few people
- - - - Vanuatu
Blue 7 28 Feb 2023 12:00 205 4 thousand
- - - - Vanuatu
Blue 8 28 Feb 2023 18:00 846 130 thousand
- - Vanuatu, New Caledonia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2023 18:00 UTC