Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for JUDY-23
in Vanuatu
03 Mar 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JUDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia
Exposed population 60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 205 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (28 Feb 07:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Vanuatu)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 205 km/h 0.7 m 710 mm 2.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 0.7 m 710 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 60 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Mar 2023 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3Vanuatu5,351 
CAT. 2Vanuatu, New Caledonia9,710
+
Vanuatu9,707 
New Caledonia02 
CAT. 1Vanuatu42,772 
Tropical StormSolomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia126,522
+
Solomon Islands1,117 
Vanuatu125,400 
New Caledonia04 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 Feb 2023 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Feb 2023 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Feb 2023 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Feb 2023 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Feb 2023 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 6 28 Feb 2023 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 7 28 Feb 2023 12:00 151 7 thousand
- - - - Solomon Islands, Vanuatu
GREEN 8 28 Feb 2023 18:00 176 20 thousand
- - - Vanuatu
RED 9 01 Mar 2023 00:00 180 30 thousand
- - - Vanuatu
RED 10 01 Mar 2023 06:00 202 30 thousand
- - Vanuatu
GREEN 11 01 Mar 2023 12:00 205 -
- - - - - Vanuatu, New Caledonia
GREEN 12 01 Mar 2023 18:00 180 Few people
-
- - - Vanuatu, New Caledonia
GREEN 13 02 Mar 2023 00:00 166 -
- - - - - New Caledonia
GREEN 14 02 Mar 2023 06:00 166 -
- - - - - New Caledonia
GREEN 15 02 Mar 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 02 Mar 2023 18:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 03 Mar 2023 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 03 Mar 2023 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 03 Mar 2023 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Mar 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmVanuatu12,244 
250-500 mmVanuatu37,335 
100-250 mmSolomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia116,518
+
Solomon Islands1,117 
Vanuatu115,397 
New Caledonia02 
50-100 mmSolomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia43,313
+
Solomon Islands106 
Vanuatu43,202 
New Caledonia04 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 Feb 2023 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Feb 2023 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Feb 2023 12:00 225 Few people
- - - - Solomon Islands
Blue 4 27 Feb 2023 18:00 213 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 28 Feb 2023 00:00 190 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
Blue 6 28 Feb 2023 06:00 279 Few people
- - - - Vanuatu
Blue 7 28 Feb 2023 12:00 205 4 thousand
- - - - Vanuatu
Blue 8 28 Feb 2023 18:00 426 90 thousand
- - - Vanuatu
Blue 9 01 Mar 2023 00:00 293 30 thousand
- - - Vanuatu
Blue 10 01 Mar 2023 06:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Vanuatu
Blue 11 01 Mar 2023 12:00 225 5 thousand
- - - - Vanuatu, New Caledonia
Blue 12 01 Mar 2023 18:00 223 Few people
- - - - Vanuatu, New Caledonia
Blue 13 02 Mar 2023 00:00 214 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 02 Mar 2023 06:00 209 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 02 Mar 2023 12:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 02 Mar 2023 18:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 03 Mar 2023 00:00 98 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 03 Mar 2023 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 03 Mar 2023 12:00 237 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Mar 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mVanuatu, New Zealand28,338
+
Vanuatu444 
New Zealand27,893 
0.25 - 0.5 mPapua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, New Caledonia, Australia, New Zealand137,781
+
Papua New Guinea33,473 
Solomon Islands4,927 
Vanuatu7,615 
Fiji9,306 
New Caledonia4,648 
Australia13,661 
New Zealand64,146 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Mar 2023 12:00 UTC