Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
09 Feb 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 0 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (12 Mar 12:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 0 km/h n.a. 310 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 112 km/h 0.7 m 1634 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Feb 2023 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
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Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMalawi4,820 
500-750 mmMalawi, Mozambique214,399
+
Malawi211,496 
Mozambique2,902 
250-500 mmMalawi, Mozambique5,388,105
+
Malawi2,515,384 
Mozambique2,872,720 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe8,239,252
+
Tanzania1,529 
Indonesia359,250 
Zambia42,616 
Malawi3,512,463 
Mozambique4,282,734 
Zimbabwe40,658 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Indonesia, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa27,482,446
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo4,378,779 
Rwanda58,992 
Tanzania2,745,550 
Indonesia11,528,739 
Burundi639,434 
Zambia1,049,429 
Malawi2,195,125 
Mauritius188 
Mozambique4,460,269 
Madagascar19,960 
Zimbabwe396,309 
South Africa9,665 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 217 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 174 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 379 -
- - - - - Indonesia, South Africa
Blue 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 228 210 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 8 09 Feb 2023 00:00 229 30 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 9 09 Feb 2023 12:00 344 8.3 million
- - - - Indonesia, Tanzania, East Timor, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Zambia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC