Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
11 Feb 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (11 Feb 16:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 115 km/h 0.7 m 233 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 112 km/h 0.7 m 1634 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Feb 2023 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 10 Feb 2023 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 10 Feb 2023 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 11 Feb 2023 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 11 Feb 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia, East Timor, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa7,107,029
+
Indonesia6,290,726 
East Timor94,537 
Malawi51,878 
Mozambique308,032 
Zimbabwe125,590 
South Africa236,262 
50-100 mmIndonesia, East Timor, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Eswatini112,935,358
+
Indonesia87,022,688 
East Timor142,270 
Tanzania26,000 
Zambia6,737 
Malawi3,437,831 
Mozambique11,103,798 
Madagascar207,346 
Zimbabwe3,276,892 
South Africa7,697,361 
Eswatini14,431 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 217 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 174 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 379 -
- - - - - Indonesia, South Africa
Blue 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 228 210 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 8 09 Feb 2023 00:00 229 30 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 9 09 Feb 2023 12:00 310 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 10 Feb 2023 00:00 307 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 11 10 Feb 2023 12:00 207 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 12 11 Feb 2023 00:00 256 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique, Eswatini
Blue 13 11 Feb 2023 12:00 368 7.1 million
- - - - Indonesia, East Timor, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Eswatini




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC