Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BLAS-22 in Mexico from 14 Jun 2022 09:00 UTC to 20 Jun 2022 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAS-22

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAS-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (17 Jun 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	158 km/h	0.5 m	243 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	162 km/h	0.5 m	882 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jun 2022 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	United States	02

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 Jun 2022 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 Jun 2022 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Jun 2022 18:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico
4	15 Jun 2022 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	15 Jun 2022 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	15 Jun 2022 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	15 Jun 2022 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	16 Jun 2022 00:00	130	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
9	16 Jun 2022 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	16 Jun 2022 12:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	16 Jun 2022 18:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
12	17 Jun 2022 00:00	162	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
13	17 Jun 2022 06:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

882 mm

Up to 750 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jun 2022 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras	749,239	+
	Mexico	676,416
	Belize	9,796
	Guatemala	20,079
	Honduras	42,946
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador	11,016,546	+
	United States	12,998
	Mexico	6,397,535
	Belize	244,840
	Guatemala	2,326,411
	Honduras	1,697,631
	El Salvador	337,128

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 Jun 2022 06:00	208	Few people			-	-	-	-	Nicaragua
2	14 Jun 2022 12:00	118	-		-	-	-	-	-	El Salvador
3	14 Jun 2022 18:00	84	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 Jun 2022 00:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	15 Jun 2022 06:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
6	15 Jun 2022 12:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	15 Jun 2022 18:00	214	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	16 Jun 2022 00:00	221	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
9	16 Jun 2022 06:00	203	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
10	16 Jun 2022 12:00	165	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	16 Jun 2022 18:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	17 Jun 2022 00:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	17 Jun 2022 06:00	334	750 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Corozal, Corozal, Belize. This height is estimated for 16/06/2022 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jun 2022 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16/06/2022 22:00	Corozal, Corozal	Belize	0.3
	16/06/2022 22:00	Quintana Roo, Calderita	Mexico	0.3
	17/06/2022 05:00	Belize, Belize City	Belize	0.3
	14/06/2022 07:00	Baja California Sur, San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.3
	16/06/2022 23:00	Corozal, Santeneja	Belize	0.3
	17/06/2022 05:00	Toledo, Cattle Landing	Belize	0.3
	17/06/2022 06:00	Corozal, Ambergris Cay San Pedro	Belize	0.2
	17/06/2022 06:00	Corozal, Ambergris Cay Bacalar Chico	Belize	0.2
	17/06/2022 06:00	Quintana Roo, Majahual	Mexico	0.2
	16/06/2022 00:00	Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real	Mexico	0.2
	15/06/2022 04:00	Sonora, La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	14/06/2022 07:00	Baja California Sur, El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	16/06/2022 21:00	Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	15/06/2022 07:00	Louisiana, Cypremort Point	United States	0.2
	15/06/2022 04:00	Louisiana, Cameron	United States	0.2
	15/06/2022 05:00	Baja California, Puertecitos	Mexico	0.2
	15/06/2022 02:00	Texas, El Campo Club Community	United States	0.2
	15/06/2022 07:00	Texas, Beach City	United States	0.2
	15/06/2022 08:00	Texas, Cedar Point	United States	0.2
	14/06/2022 07:00	Baja California Sur, Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	14/06/2022 07:00	Baja California Sur, Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	14/06/2022 13:00	Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.1
	14/06/2022 07:00	Baja California Sur, Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	14/06/2022 07:00	Baja California Sur, El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	15/06/2022 08:00	Texas, Seabrook	United States	0.1
	15/06/2022 21:00	Texas, North Beach	United States	0.1
	15/06/2022 08:00	Texas, Smith Point	United States	0.1
	16/06/2022 02:00	Texas, Caplen	United States	0.1
	16/06/2022 02:00	Texas, Gilchrist	United States	0.1
	16/06/2022 02:00	Texas, Crystal Beach	United States	0.1
	16/06/2022 02:00	Texas, Patton	United States	0.1
	15/06/2022 02:00	Tamaulipas, El Mezquite	Mexico	0.1
	14/06/2022 20:00	Escuintla, El Naranjo	Guatemala	0.1
	15/06/2022 05:00	Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.1
	17/06/2022 02:00	Sonora, Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	14/06/2022 23:00	Sonora, Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	15/06/2022 11:00	Escuintla, Sipacate	Guatemala	0.1
	16/06/2022 00:00	Sinaloa, Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	14/06/2022 08:00	Oaxaca, Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1
	15/06/2022 01:00	Sonora, San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	17/06/2022 04:00	Texas, Port Ingleside	United States	0.1
	14/06/2022 09:00	Baja California Sur, Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	16/06/2022 10:00	Louisiana, West Point	United States	0.1
	16/06/2022 23:00	Escuintla, La Barrita	Guatemala	0.1
	15/06/2022 01:00	Alabama, Bellefontaine	United States	0.1
	16/06/2022 23:00	Escuintla, San Jose	Guatemala	0.1
	16/06/2022 23:00	Escuintla, Iztapa	Guatemala	0.1
	16/06/2022 23:00	Santa Rosa, Papaturro	Guatemala	0.1
	17/06/2022 01:00	Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach	United States	0.1
	17/06/2022 01:00	Baja California Sur, San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	16/06/2022 10:00	Louisiana, Breton	United States	0.1
	17/06/2022 02:00	Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor	United States	0.1
	17/06/2022 00:00	Valle, Puerto Grande	Honduras	0.1
	14/06/2022 11:00	Baja California Sur, Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	16/06/2022 00:00	Louisiana, Cocodrie	United States	0.1
	16/06/2022 23:00	Veracruz, Buen Pais	Mexico	0.1
	15/06/2022 01:00	Alabama, Bayleys Corner	United States	0.1
	15/06/2022 01:00	Alabama, Mon Louis	United States	0.1
	17/06/2022 03:00	Texas, Quintana	United States	0.1
	16/06/2022 01:00	Alabama, Heron Bay	United States	0.1
	16/06/2022 01:00	Alabama, Alabama Port	United States	0.1
	17/06/2022 00:00	Valle, El Ajustillo	Honduras	0.1
	17/06/2022 00:00	Michoacan de Ocampo, Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	16/06/2022 23:00	Veracruz, Veracruz	Mexico	0.1
	15/06/2022 22:00	Mississippi, Pass Christian	United States	0.1
	15/06/2022 22:00	Mississippi, White Harbor	United States	0.1
	17/06/2022 01:00	Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas	Mexico	0.1
	15/06/2022 22:00	Mississippi, Bay St Louis	United States	0.1
	15/06/2022 22:00	Mississippi, Henderson Point	United States	0.1
	17/06/2022 04:00	Veracruz, Anton Lizardo	Mexico	0.1
	15/06/2022 03:00	Mississippi, Edgewater Park	United States	0.1
	15/06/2022 03:00	Mississippi, Beauvoir	United States	0.1
	15/06/2022 03:00	Mississippi, Mississippi City	United States	0.1
	15/06/2022 03:00	Mississippi, Handsboro	United States	0.1
	16/06/2022 21:00	Oaxaca, Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	16/06/2022 22:00	Oaxaca, Bajos de Chila	Mexico	0.1
	17/06/2022 02:00	Tamaulipas, El Porvenir	Mexico	0.1
	16/06/2022 01:00	Alabama, Fort Morgan	United States	0.1
	17/06/2022 03:00	Tamaulipas, El Mezquital	Mexico	0.1
	16/06/2022 18:00	Louisiana, Medicant Island Bassa Bassa	United States	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.