Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAS-22
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 113.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 113.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.6N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.8N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.8N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 113.6W.
20JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
835 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z
IS 10 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 201436
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Blas has been unable
to produce organized deep convection near its center for almost 24
h. Although a couple of sporadic bursts of convection have occurred
to its north this morning, this is not deemed enough to maintain its
status as a tropical cyclone. Since the system has degenerated into
a remnant low, this will be the final NHC advisory on Blas. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a blend of Dvorak current
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB.

The remnant low is moving westward at 275/4 kt, and it is forecast
to continue moving slowly westward to west-northwestward over the
next couple of days. This will bring the system over cooler waters
and into a drier mid-level environment with increasing deep-layer
southerly shear. Therefore, the remnant low is expected to gradually
weaken and open into a trough by Wednesday.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1200Z 19.6N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 19.8N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 19.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 201435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...BLAS DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 113.6W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas
was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 113.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation
in a couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
remnant low is expected to open into a trough on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.6N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.8N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.8N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 113.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 025
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 113.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 113.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.2N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.4N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.6N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.6N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 113.4W.
20JUN22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
844 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z
AND 211000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 200839
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Blas Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

There is little or no deep convection remaining in association with
Blas, aside from a few showers well removed from the center over
the northeastern quadrant. A scatterometer pass revealed that
there are no longer winds of tropical storm force in the
circulation. Therefore the system is being downgraded to a
tropical depression on this advisory. Given the lack of deep
convection, it is likely that Blas will degenerate into a remnant
low later today. The cyclone should continue to spin down in an
unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, and open up into a
trough in a couple of days.

Blas continues to move slowly westward, or 275/4 kt. This general
motion should persist, within the low-level easterly flow,
until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast remains very
close to the previous one and to the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 19.1N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.2N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/0600Z 19.4N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1800Z 19.6N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 19.6N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 200837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Blas Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...BLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 113.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Blas was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 113.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue until dissipation in a
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Blas should decay into a remnant low pressure
area later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 200836
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0900 UTC MON JUN 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.2N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.4N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 200409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 93.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.06.2022 0 12.2N 93.8W 1007 30
1200UTC 20.06.2022 12 12.0N 94.8W 1007 30
0000UTC 21.06.2022 24 11.9N 97.5W 1007 28
1200UTC 21.06.2022 36 11.9N 99.7W 1007 27
0000UTC 22.06.2022 48 12.4N 102.0W 1005 27
1200UTC 22.06.2022 60 13.2N 104.0W 1004 27
0000UTC 23.06.2022 72 14.2N 105.8W 1001 32
1200UTC 23.06.2022 84 15.5N 107.8W 1000 31
0000UTC 24.06.2022 96 16.1N 110.1W 999 31
1200UTC 24.06.2022 108 16.6N 112.3W 1001 27
0000UTC 25.06.2022 120 16.6N 114.4W 1000 30
1200UTC 25.06.2022 132 16.2N 115.1W 1001 30
0000UTC 26.06.2022 144 16.8N 115.3W 1000 35

TROPICAL STORM BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.06.2022 0 18.9N 112.7W 1001 26
1200UTC 20.06.2022 12 19.1N 113.5W 1004 26
0000UTC 21.06.2022 24 18.9N 114.8W 1005 24
1200UTC 21.06.2022 36 18.8N 115.8W 1007 21
0000UTC 22.06.2022 48 18.5N 116.3W 1008 19
1200UTC 22.06.2022 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200408

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 200408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 93.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.06.2022 12.2N 93.8W WEAK
12UTC 20.06.2022 12.0N 94.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 11.9N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 11.9N 99.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 12.4N 102.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 13.2N 104.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2022 14.2N 105.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2022 15.5N 107.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 16.1N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2022 16.6N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.06.2022 16.6N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2022 16.2N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2022 16.8N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.06.2022 18.9N 112.7W WEAK
12UTC 20.06.2022 19.1N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 18.9N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 18.8N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 18.5N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200408

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 200400
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 112.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 112.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.2N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.5N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.7N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 113.0W.
20JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 200254
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Blas has lost any organized deep
convection, with only a few small blobs of activity well northeast
of the center. Dvorak estimates still support keeping Blas a
tropical storm for this advisory. The cyclone should not be long
for this world due to the continuing influences of dry air and cool
waters. Most likely, Blas will weaken into a tropical depression
early Monday and a convection-free remnant low by Monday afternoon.
This is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and little
change was made to the previous NHC forecast.

Blas is moving slowly westward tonight at around 4 kt. The storm
should creep westward for the next couple of days within the weak
low-level trade flow. The global models generally show Blas
degenerating into a trough on day 3, so the dissipation time has
been moved up to 60 h. The track forecast is very close to the
previous one and the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.1N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 19.7N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 200252
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...BLAS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 112.9W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 112.9 West. Blas is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast until dissipation in a couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Blas should decay into a tropical depression overnight and a
remnant area of low pressure on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 200252
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0300 UTC MON JUN 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.7N 116.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 112.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 112.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 112.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.2N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.3N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.4N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.6N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.9N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 112.5W.
19JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 856 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND
202200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 192034
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Deep convection has been withering away from the circulation of Blas
this afternoon, and only a few broken convective bands remain to the
north and northeast of the center. The Dvorak classifications
from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from
34 to 45 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, near the
low end of the satellite estimates, given the degraded appearance of
the storm this afternoon. Blas is already over cool waters, and
even cooler waters along its future track plus dry and stable air
should cause the system to further decay. The NHC forecast
shows Blas becoming a remnant low in 24 hours, but this could occur
sooner if the current trends continue. The system is forecast to
completely dissipate in a few days.

The storm has been moving very slowly and erratically throughout
the day. It is unclear if the center has also reformed a little to
the east this afternoon. Regardless, the overall motion has been a
northwestward drift. A slow west to west-northwest motion within
the low-level flow is expected to resume soon and continue until
dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.1N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.2N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.3N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 19.4N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 19.6N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 19.9N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 192033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...BLAS SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 112.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 112.4 West. Blas is
moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow west to
west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is anticipated, and
Blas is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 192033
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.4W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.4W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.2N 112.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.3N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.4N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.9N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 112.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 112.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 112.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.0N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.0N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.1N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.3N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 113.1W.
19JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 854 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z
AND 201600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 191434
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Blas has generally changed little in strength and structure during
the past several hours. The storm is maintaining an area of deep
convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The Dvorak
classifications continue to range between 35 and 45 kt, and based
on that data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Blas is
already over cool 25 degree C waters, and it is headed for even
cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass.
These conditions should cause the storm to decay, and it will
likely become a remnant low on Monday and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 6 kt. An even
slower westward motion is expected within the low-level flow until
the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a touch slower
than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 191433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...BLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 113.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 113.0 West. Blas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
westward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is anticipated, and Blas is forecast to become a
remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 191433
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.0W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.0W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 18.8N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 112.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.9N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.9N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.9N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.9N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.0N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.0N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 112.4W.
19JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 876 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z
AND 201000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 190836
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Blas remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with deep convection
restricted to the eastern half of the system's circulation. The
tropical storm is maintaining its limited convection for the moment
despite having moved over marginally cool sea surface temperatures
below 26 deg C. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on an
average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Blas should slowly
weaken during the next few days as it continues to move through a
dry and stable surrounding environment and over marginal SSTs. The
official forecast shows Blas becoming a remnant low in about 36 h
and dissipating during the middle of the week.

Blas is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (295/4 kt). As the
tropical storm weakens, it should be steered westward by
low-level trade wind flow for the next couple of days. Very little
change was made to NHC official track forecast, which is near the
middle of the global deterministic model forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.8N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 18.9N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 18.9N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 18.9N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0600Z 18.9N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1800Z 19.0N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...BLAS SLOWLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 112.3W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 112.3 West. Blas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the west is expected early this morning. Blas is forecast to
continue moving slowly westward through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is anticipated, and Blas is forecast to become a
remnant low within the next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 190834
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0900 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 112.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 112.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.9N 112.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.9N 113.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 112.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 18.6N 111.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 111.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.9N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.9N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.8N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.8N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.9N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 111.9W.
19JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 896 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 190237
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

The convection associated with Blas has increased some during the
past several hours, mostly in a band in the southeasteastern
quadrant of the storm. The initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt, on
the higher side of the recent Dvorak estimates in deference to the
marginally improved satellite presentation. A combination of cool
SSTs, dry mid-level air and decreasing atmospheric instability
should cause a general weakening of Blas during the next day or two.
The storm is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday and
degenerate into a remnant area of low pressure by Monday evening.
No significant changes were made to the last NHC intensity forecast.

Blas has turned more to the west-northwest tonight or 300/4 kt.
The cyclone should move slowly in that direction overnight and then
more westward tomorrow in light low-level trades. Model guidance
is in very good agreement, and only cosmetic changes were made to
the previous NHC track foreast. The remnants of Blas should open up
into a surface trough in 3 or 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.7N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 18.9N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 18.9N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 18.8N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1200Z 18.9N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190236
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...BLAS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 111.8W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 111.8 West. Blas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion with a turn to the west is anticipated during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blas is
expected to become a remnant area of low pressure on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 190235
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0300 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 111.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 111.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.9N 112.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.9N 113.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 114.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.9N 116.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 182032
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Blas continues to spin down. Satellite images show that the
center remains partially exposed and deep convection is still
limited to the southeastern quadrant. A recent ASCAT-B pass showed
maximum winds of around 40 kt, but it did not catch the southeast
side of the system. Based on that pass and the latest Dvorak
estimates that range from 35-55 kt, the initial intensity is nudged
down again to 45 kt. An observation on Socorro Island, Mexico,
reported sustained winds of tropical-storm-force earlier today, and
gusts to that threshold are still ongoing.

The tropical storm is moving slowly northwestward at about 5 kt. A
continued slow westward to northwestward motion within the low- to
mid-level flow is expected to continue until the system dissipates
in 3 to 4 days. The models have trended southward this cycle, and
the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm
is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an
environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These
factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely
become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days, or possibly even
sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the
previous one, and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip
currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern
part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should
subside tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.4N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 18.8N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 18.7N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.7N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/0600Z 18.9N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 18.9N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 182031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 111.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.5 West. Blas is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow
westward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should
degenerate into a remnant low early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 182030
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
2100 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.7N 112.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 113.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.7N 114.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.7N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.9N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 181600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 110.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 110.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.3N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.6N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.7N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.9N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.2N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.6N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
181600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 111.1W.
18JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 951 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z
AND 191600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 181432
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Blas continues to weaken and is quite disorganized this morning.
Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level center
with deep convection confined to the southeastern quadrant of the
circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB,
and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the
intensity down to 50 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 4
kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion within
the low- to mid-level flow is expected to continue through the
middle of next week. The models have trended slower this cycle,
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be
positioned closer to the various consensus aids.

Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm
is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an
environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These
factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely
become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity
forecast is an update of the previous one, and is in line with the
majority of the guidance.

Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip
currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern
part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should
subside tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 181431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 111.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.0 West. Blas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should degenerate into a
remnant low early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 181431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 181000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 017
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 02E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 110.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 110.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.1N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.4N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.5N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.5N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.5N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.7N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.3N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
181000Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 110.9W.
18JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 968 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z
AND 191000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 180834
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Blas' cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate rapidly this
morning. The conventional satellite imagery and microwave
presentations show what remains of the deep convection is confined
to a small area in the southwest quadrant. The initial intensity
is lowered to 55 kt and is based on a blend of the various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. However,
this estimate could be a bit generous given the recent METOP-B
scatterometer pass that showed peak winds of 40 to 45 kt.

The 20 kt of northeasterly shear weakening Blas is forecast
to decrease during the next 24 hours or so. By that time,
however, the cyclone should be moving over decreasing sea surface
temperatures and into a less thermodynamically favorable air mass.
The global models and the statistical intensity guidance agree with
Blas degenerating into a remnant low early next week,
and the NHC forecast follows suit.

Blas is likely being steered by the weaker low-level trades and is
moving west-northwestward or 285/5 kt. This general motion is
forecast to continue until it opens into a trough of low
pressure around the middle of next week. The latest NHC track
forecast is nudged a little to the right of the previous one and
lies close to the TVCE multi-model consensus.

While Blas weakens and moves farther away from the coast of Mexico,
its associated swells that are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
should subside by early next week. These conditions, however, are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas over
the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.8N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.4N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 18.5N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 18.5N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z 18.7N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z 19.3N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...BLAS CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN...
...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 110.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 110.8 West. Blas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should
degenerate into a remnant low early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula over the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 180833
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0900 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.8W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.8W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.4N 112.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N 113.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 114.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.7N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 19.3N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 110.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 180409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 89.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.06.2022 0 12.1N 89.4W 1008 23
1200UTC 18.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 89.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.06.2022 0 11.7N 89.3W 1007 23
1200UTC 18.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 110.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.06.2022 0 17.3N 110.2W 984 52
1200UTC 18.06.2022 12 18.1N 111.3W 990 42
0000UTC 19.06.2022 24 18.7N 112.5W 994 39
1200UTC 19.06.2022 36 18.9N 113.2W 995 39
0000UTC 20.06.2022 48 19.1N 114.4W 998 36
1200UTC 20.06.2022 60 18.9N 115.8W 1001 29
0000UTC 21.06.2022 72 18.9N 117.2W 1003 28
1200UTC 21.06.2022 84 19.2N 118.4W 1006 24
0000UTC 22.06.2022 96 19.1N 119.6W 1007 23
1200UTC 22.06.2022 108 18.9N 120.7W 1008 19
0000UTC 23.06.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.5N 102.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.06.2022 96 12.5N 103.9W 1006 23
1200UTC 22.06.2022 108 13.1N 106.2W 1005 29
0000UTC 23.06.2022 120 13.9N 108.8W 1003 33
1200UTC 23.06.2022 132 14.8N 110.6W 1002 33
0000UTC 24.06.2022 144 15.2N 112.3W 1001 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 180409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 89.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.06.2022 12.1N 89.4W WEAK
12UTC 18.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 89.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.06.2022 11.7N 89.3W WEAK
12UTC 18.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 110.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.06.2022 17.3N 110.2W MODERATE
12UTC 18.06.2022 18.1N 111.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.06.2022 18.7N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2022 18.9N 113.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2022 19.1N 114.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2022 18.9N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 18.9N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 19.2N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 19.1N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 18.9N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.5N 102.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.06.2022 12.5N 103.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 13.1N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2022 13.9N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2022 14.8N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2022 15.2N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180409

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 109.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 109.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.0N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.3N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.4N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.4N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.4N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.5N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.0N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 110.4W.
18JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 180248
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Blas has fallen apart tonight. The mid-level center of the cyclone
has sheared off to the southwest, with no deep convection near the
surface center, and a mostly-exposed low-level center was visible
on the last few daylight satellite images. Dvorak classifications
are basically dropping as fast as the rules allow, and given the
lack of any significant thunderstorm activity, the initial wind
speed is set on the low end of the estimates to 60 kt.

Continued weakening is anticipated due to Blas moving over cool
waters, although the loss of strength could be tempered by
decreasing wind shear as well. The storm should produce a few more
rounds of deep convection in the marginally unstable environment
before eventually becoming a remnant low early next week. Model
guidance is in good agreement on this solution, and the only modest
change to the forecast was lowering it in the near-term due to the
initial intensity. Additionally, the timing of Blas becoming a
post-tropical cyclone was moved up by 12 h in this forecast cycle,
and since most of the guidance indicate Blas should decay into a
trough around 120 h, the NHC forecast does as well.

Blas has slowed considerably during the past several hours,
probably due to the vortex decoupling, with an initial motion
estimate of 290/6 kt. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion
is expected during the next several days due to the system
weakening and becoming increasingly steered by the lighter
low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is basically an
update of the previous one, shifted a bit to the north to come into
better agreement with the model consensus aids.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula for another day or two. These conditions are likely to
cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 17.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.0N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 18.4N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 18.4N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 18.4N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/0000Z 18.5N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180247
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...BLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM, BUT DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 110.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 110.2 West. Blas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 180247
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0300 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 109.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.4N 113.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.4N 114.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.4N 115.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.5N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.8N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.1N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.3N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.4N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.3N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.2N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.6N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.0N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
172200Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 110.1W.
17JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1011 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 172033
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

The strengthening observed this morning has come to an end,
and Blas now seems to be on a weakening trend. Deep convection has
become increasingly ragged and banding features appear a little
less defined. Based on the degraded satellite appearance and the
latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is nudged down to 75
kt. A partial ASCAT pass was helpful in locating the center and
analyzing the 34- and 50-kt wind radii.

During the past several hours, the hurricane has turned more to the
left, and the latest initial motion estimate is westward at 12
kt. Blas is currently being steered by a strong mid-level ridge
that is centered over the south-central U.S. A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days
as the system weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the
lighter low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the
south of the previous one, partially based on the initial position
and motion.

Blas is about to cross the 26 degree C isotherm and it will be
moving over progressively cooler waters during the next several
days. In addition, the cyclone will be moving into an environment
of increasingly more stable and dry air. These conditions should
cause a steady weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a
shallow post-tropical system in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity is
just an update of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and
IVCN guidance.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula for another day or two. These conditions are likely to
cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 17.4N 109.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.8N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.1N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 18.3N 113.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 18.3N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.2N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/1800Z 18.6N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 172032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...SWELLS CONTINUE TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 109.9W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 109.9 West. Blas is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is expected, and Blas will likely become a
tropical storm on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 172031
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
2100 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.8N 111.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 112.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.3N 113.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.2N 116.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.2N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.8N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.9N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.8N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.7N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.8N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.0N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 109.2W.
17JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1021 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (CELIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 171610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 87.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.06.2022 0 15.5N 87.5W 1011 23
0000UTC 18.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 03E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 89.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.06.2022 0 11.3N 89.3W 1008 24
0000UTC 18.06.2022 12 11.5N 89.3W 1008 21
1200UTC 18.06.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 108.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.06.2022 0 17.4N 108.5W 976 63
0000UTC 18.06.2022 12 17.9N 110.6W 988 43
1200UTC 18.06.2022 24 18.6N 112.1W 994 39
0000UTC 19.06.2022 36 19.3N 113.7W 998 30
1200UTC 19.06.2022 48 19.3N 114.6W 1001 28
0000UTC 20.06.2022 60 19.2N 115.8W 1003 26
1200UTC 20.06.2022 72 18.8N 116.7W 1005 25
0000UTC 21.06.2022 84 18.5N 118.1W 1006 24
1200UTC 21.06.2022 96 18.8N 119.3W 1008 21
0000UTC 22.06.2022 108 18.8N 120.5W 1009 19
1200UTC 22.06.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.4N 107.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.06.2022 132 13.8N 109.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 23.06.2022 144 14.2N 112.0W 1003 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 171610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 87.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.06.2022 15.5N 87.5W WEAK
00UTC 18.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 03E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 89.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.06.2022 11.3N 89.3W WEAK
00UTC 18.06.2022 11.5N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 108.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.06.2022 17.4N 108.5W STRONG
00UTC 18.06.2022 17.9N 110.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.06.2022 18.6N 112.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.06.2022 19.3N 113.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2022 19.3N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2022 19.2N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2022 18.8N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 18.5N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 18.8N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 18.8N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.4N 107.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.06.2022 13.8N 109.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.06.2022 14.2N 112.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171610

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 171445
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Blas has become a little better organized this morning. Microwave
data from overnight showed an eye feature and numerous curved
bands, especially south of the center. Since then, deep convection
has been increasing and has become a bit more symmetric around the
center. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 77 to 90 kt, and
the initial intensity is nudged up to 80 kt based on that data.

The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward, or 295 degrees,
at 12 kt. Blas is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge
centered over the south-central U.S. The hurricane is expected to
slow down on Saturday and turn westward on Sunday as the system
weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the lighter low-level
flow. This slow westward motion is forecast to continue through the
middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north
of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus aids.

Blas is currently in favorable conditions for strengthening, but
that is not expected to last much longer. The hurricane should
cross the 26 degree C isotherm later today and move over
progressively cooler waters during the next several days. In
addition, Blas will be moving into an environment of increasingly
more stable and dry air. These conditions should promote a steady
weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow post-tropical
system in a few days. The NHC intensity is forecast is a touch
higher than the previous one, due to the slightly stronger initial
intensity.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico for another day or so. These swells
are expected to spread to parts of the southern Baja California
peninsula later today and continue through the weekend. These
conditions are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in
those areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 17.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 18.2N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 18.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 18.9N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/1200Z 18.8N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z 19.0N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 171443
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...BLAS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 109.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Blas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west are expected this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later
today and continue during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. The swells
are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja
California later today and continue through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 171442
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 110.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.9N 114.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.8N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 106.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 106.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.6N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.1N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.4N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.5N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.4N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.3N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.4N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.4N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
171000Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 107.7W.
17JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1103 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (THREE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 170837
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Conventional satellite imagery and earlier GMI and SSMI/S microwave
images indicated that the location of Blas' center was near the
northern edge of the deep convective mass. Evidently, the
northeasterly shear persists and impinges on the north portion of
the cloud pattern. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged, and the initial
intensity is, once again, held at 75 kt.

Blas is expected to move over cooler oceanic sea surface
temperatures and into a high statically stable thermodynamic
surrounding environment during the next few days. Gradual
weakening is then forecast through the remainder of the period.
The official intensity forecast has changed little from the previous
one and sides with the HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity
forecasts.

The microwave passes showed Blas a little north of the previous
advisory position, and the initial motion is estimated to be
west-northwestward, or 295/11 kt. Blas is embedded in the
east-southeasterly steering flow generated by a mid-tropospheric
ridge extending from northern Mexico into the eastern North Pacific
ocean. Some strengthening of the ridge should cause Blas to
increase forward speed today. A weaker, more vertically shallow
cyclone will likely turn westward in the low-level easterlies by
early next week. Only minor along-track adjustments were made
to the new track forecast, and a blend of the HCCA and TVCE were
used as a basis.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to parts of the
southern Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 17.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 18.5N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z 18.4N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 170836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...BLAS STILL CAUSING ROUGH SURF ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...SWELLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 107.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 107.5 West. Blas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to to continue over the next few days with some increase in
forward speed today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today and
continue through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells
are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja
California later today and continue through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 170836
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0900 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.5W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.5W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 111.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 113.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 18.4N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 107.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 106.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.3N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.0N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.7N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.7N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.1N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.1N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 106.8W.
17JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1149 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (THREE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 170235
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Blas continues to battle moderate northeasterly shear this evening.
Geostationary satellite infrared imagery shows cloud top
temperatures have warmed over a large portion of the central dense
overcast. There is still some strong convection near the center and
curved banding features. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB evaluate the intensity at 90 kt and 77 kt, respectively.
Objective Dvorak estimates are somewhat lower and the initial
intensity is held at 75 kt as a compromise of these estimates.

Blas is forecast to move over gradually cooling SSTs and into an
increasingly dry environment over the next few days. These
environmental factors should result in a slow weakening trend. The
NHC intensity prediction is slightly above the model consensus and
it is possible the storm could weaken faster than indicated here.

The initial motion estimate remains about the same, at 290/9 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north continues to be the dominant steering
feature and Blas is expected to maintain its west-northwest track
with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so.
Later in the forecast period, a weaker and more shallow Blas is
likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within the low-level
tradewind flow. The track model guidance is tightly clustered, and
the latest NHC forecast is near the middle of the track guidance
suite.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 16.5N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 18.7N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 18.1N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z 18.1N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 170234
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...BLAS CAUSING LARGE SWELLS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 106.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 106.5 West. Blas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to to continue over the next few days with some increase in
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12
hours or so, but steady weakening is expected to begin Friday and
continue through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells
are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja
California by late Friday and continue through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 170233
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0300 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.7N 113.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.1N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 162200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 105.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 105.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.9N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.3N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.7N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.0N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.8N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.3N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.2N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
162200Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 105.8W.
16JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1195 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 162048
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Geostationary satellite imagery suggests that the low-level center
of Blas has become more aligned with the mid-level center and
closer to the center of the central dense overcast during the last
6 hours. Despite this improvement, the convection is a little
shallower in the western semicircle of the hurricane than it was
this morning. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are 90
kt and 77 kt, respectively. The latest CIMSS-ADT estimate is 60 kt.
Taking a blend of the data, the intensity is held at 75 kt for this
advisory.

Moderate northeasterly shear is expected to continue over Blas
through the next 36 hours. Blas has another 18 hours or so over
warm water before it crosses the 26 degree Celsius isotherm. Little
change in strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning, while
the cyclone remains over warm ocean temperatures. Steady weakening
should begin in about 24 hours, and is anticipated to continue
during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas moves into
less favorable thermodynamic conditions. The cyclone is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low around day 3. The NHC intensity
prediction is in best agreement with the LGEM model and HFIP
corrected consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 285/7 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane should continue to
steer the cyclone west-northwestward with some increase in forward
speed over the next 48-60 hours. After that time, a weaker and more
shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within
the low-level tradewind flow. The track model guidance is tightly
clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is near the middle of the
consensus models. The new NHC track forecast is once again faster
than the previous advisory.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 16.2N 105.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.8N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.3N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 18.7N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 19.0N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 18.8N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z 18.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z 18.2N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 162046
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...BLAS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...LARGE SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 105.6W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 105.6 West. Blas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next few days with some increase in
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 to
24 hours, but steady weakening is expected to begin Friday night and
continue through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells
are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja
California by late Friday and continue through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 162046
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
2100 UTC THU JUN 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 111.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.7N 113.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 18.2N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 105.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 161610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 16.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 86.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.06.2022 0 11.1N 86.9W 1011 30
0000UTC 17.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 90.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.06.2022 0 10.2N 90.3W 1006 30
0000UTC 17.06.2022 12 11.0N 89.7W 1006 23
1200UTC 17.06.2022 24 11.1N 90.2W 1007 28
0000UTC 18.06.2022 36 11.7N 89.6W 1007 21
1200UTC 18.06.2022 48 12.4N 90.0W 1008 22
0000UTC 19.06.2022 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 104.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.06.2022 0 15.7N 104.5W 981 61
0000UTC 17.06.2022 12 16.4N 106.0W 980 59
1200UTC 17.06.2022 24 17.6N 109.0W 973 66
0000UTC 18.06.2022 36 18.0N 111.5W 988 42
1200UTC 18.06.2022 48 18.6N 113.0W 993 39
0000UTC 19.06.2022 60 19.5N 114.6W 997 34
1200UTC 19.06.2022 72 19.5N 115.8W 1000 29
0000UTC 20.06.2022 84 19.2N 116.9W 1002 29
1200UTC 20.06.2022 96 18.6N 117.7W 1004 26
0000UTC 21.06.2022 108 18.3N 119.0W 1005 25
1200UTC 21.06.2022 120 18.5N 120.2W 1008 22
0000UTC 22.06.2022 132 18.7N 121.2W 1009 19
1200UTC 22.06.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.0N 89.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.06.2022 12 11.0N 89.7W 1006 23
1200UTC 17.06.2022 24 11.1N 90.2W 1007 28
0000UTC 18.06.2022 36 11.7N 89.6W 1007 21
1200UTC 18.06.2022 48 12.4N 90.0W 1008 22
0000UTC 19.06.2022 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161610

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 104.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 104.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.5N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.3N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.0N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.8N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.0N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.7N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.5N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161600Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 104.9W.
16JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1230 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 161437
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

The satellite presentation of Blas in geostationary imagery has not
changed much this morning with the center embedded within the
northern portion of the central dense overcast. Recent microwave
imagery, however, shows that there has been some additional
degradation of the inner-core due to moderate east-northeasterly
shear. There is a bit more uncertainty than normal in the initial
intensity of the hurricane as the subjective Dvorak estimates are
on the higher end at 77 and 90 kt, while objective satellite
estimates from the ADT and SATCON are lower at 70 and 64 kt,
respectively. The advisory intensity is kept near a consensus of
these estimates at 75 kt.

Although the shear is forecast to relax slightly during the next
12-24 hours, the recent degradation of the inner core will likely
prevent any further intensification. Therefore, little change in
strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning. By 36 hours, Blas
is forecast to cross the 26 degree Celsius isotherm which should
commence the weakening process. Steady weakening is then
anticipated during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas
moves into less favorable thermodynamic conditions, and the cyclone
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 4. The NHC
intensity prediction is in best agreement with the LGEM model and
ICON consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/7 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane should continue to
steer the cyclone west-northwestward with some increase in forward
speed over the next 48-72 hours. After that time, a weaker and more
shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within
the lower-level tradewind flow. There is very little cross-track
spread among the various dynamical models, but there is some
along-track or speed differences with the HWRF, HMON, and GFS much
faster than the ECMWF. The new NHC track forecast is a little
faster than the previous advisory, closer to the latest HCCA and
TVCE consensus aids, but additional adjustments could be required in
subsequent advisories.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 15.9N 104.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 161436
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...BLAS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...LARGE SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 104.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 104.8 West. Blas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue over the next few days with some increase
in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours, but steady weakening is expected to begin Friday
night and continue through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells
are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja
California by late Friday and continue through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 161436
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.8W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.8W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 104.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 103.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 103.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.2N 105.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.0N 107.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.2N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.6N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.9N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.0N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.5N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
161000Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 104.2W.
16JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1259 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 160835
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

A GMI microwave overpass received just after the last advisory
showed decay of the inner core structure of Blas, with the central
deep convection occurring only in the southern semicircle. In
addition, the cloud pattern in infrared imagery now looks more like
a shear pattern than a central dense overcast. These changes are
likely due to the effects of 15-25 kt of easterly shear currently
analyzed over the cyclone. Despite the convective decay, the
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
consensus are unchanged since the last advisory. Thus, the initial
intensity remains a possibly generous 75 kt.

Little change in strength is likely during the next 6-12 h due to
the shear. The shear should diminish some between 12-24 h and
allow Blas to strengthen a little more. After that, the cyclone is
forecast to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, which
should cause a gradual weakening for the remainder of the forecast
period. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of
the guidance and has some minor adjustments from the previous
advisory.

The microwave imagery indicated that the center was a little to the
north of the previous advisory position, and the initial motion is
a somewhat uncertain 300/5. Blas should be steered west-
northwestward with some increase in forward speed by the flow on the
south side of a mid- to upper-level ridge. As the cyclone weakens
later in the forecast period, it is expected to turn west-
southwestward following the lower-level tradewind flow. The new
forecast track is a little to the north of, and faster than, the
previous forecast track, and it lies near the various consensus
models.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are beginning to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely continue through the end
of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.2N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 17.0N 107.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 18.6N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 18.9N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 18.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 160835
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...BLAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 104.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 104.0 West. Blas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next several days with some increase
in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today and tonight followed
by gradual weakening beginning Friday night or Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely to continue over the next several
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 160835
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0900 UTC THU JUN 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 105.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.0N 107.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.6N 112.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.9N 113.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 104.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 160409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 83.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.06.2022 0 11.1N 83.1W 1010 20
1200UTC 16.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 91.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.06.2022 0 11.4N 91.1W 1007 26
1200UTC 16.06.2022 12 10.2N 90.3W 1007 29
0000UTC 17.06.2022 24 10.1N 89.7W 1006 28
1200UTC 17.06.2022 36 10.6N 89.1W 1007 27
0000UTC 18.06.2022 48 11.5N 89.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 18.06.2022 60 12.2N 90.2W 1006 30
0000UTC 19.06.2022 72 12.5N 91.2W 1006 32
1200UTC 19.06.2022 84 12.5N 92.4W 1006 26
0000UTC 20.06.2022 96 13.2N 94.6W 1005 29
1200UTC 20.06.2022 108 13.0N 97.3W 1005 32
0000UTC 21.06.2022 120 12.8N 99.6W 1004 29
1200UTC 21.06.2022 132 13.0N 102.8W 1004 29
0000UTC 22.06.2022 144 13.0N 105.7W 1003 28

HURRICANE BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 103.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.06.2022 0 15.3N 103.5W 989 47
1200UTC 16.06.2022 12 15.3N 104.6W 987 54
0000UTC 17.06.2022 24 16.1N 106.4W 984 51
1200UTC 17.06.2022 36 17.4N 109.4W 977 59
0000UTC 18.06.2022 48 17.6N 112.0W 986 47
1200UTC 18.06.2022 60 18.2N 113.0W 993 38
0000UTC 19.06.2022 72 19.1N 114.3W 996 35
1200UTC 19.06.2022 84 19.3N 115.3W 999 29
0000UTC 20.06.2022 96 19.1N 116.3W 1001 30
1200UTC 20.06.2022 108 18.7N 117.0W 1004 25
0000UTC 21.06.2022 120 18.7N 118.1W 1005 23
1200UTC 21.06.2022 132 19.1N 118.8W 1007 21
0000UTC 22.06.2022 144 19.4N 119.7W 1008 20


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 160409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 83.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.06.2022 11.1N 83.1W WEAK
12UTC 16.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 91.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.06.2022 11.4N 91.1W WEAK
12UTC 16.06.2022 10.2N 90.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2022 10.1N 89.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.06.2022 10.6N 89.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.06.2022 11.5N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.06.2022 12.2N 90.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.06.2022 12.5N 91.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2022 12.5N 92.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2022 13.2N 94.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2022 13.0N 97.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 12.8N 99.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 13.0N 102.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 13.0N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 103.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.06.2022 15.3N 103.5W MODERATE
12UTC 16.06.2022 15.3N 104.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2022 16.1N 106.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.06.2022 17.4N 109.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.06.2022 17.6N 112.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.06.2022 18.2N 113.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.06.2022 19.1N 114.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2022 19.3N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2022 19.1N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2022 18.7N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 18.7N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2022 19.1N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2022 19.4N 119.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160409

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 160400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.2N 103.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 103.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.8N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.4N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.1N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.7N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.2N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.6N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.8N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.3N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
160400Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 103.7W.
16JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1291 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 160233
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Blas remains a well-organized hurricane with very cold cloud tops
near the center, some curved banding, and an impressive
upper-level outflow in all quadrants but the northeast. Subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates hold the hurricane's current
intensity at T4.5/75 kt, so the initial intensity will remain at
75 kt for this advisory.

Blas is expected to strengthen further to a peak intensity of 85 kt
in the next 24 h before entering a less favorable environment of
increased easterly vertical shear and cooler waters. The intensity
forecast has changed little compared to the previous NHC
prediction and remains near the higher end of the numerical
guidance, with DSHIPS generally showing the most intensification of
the models.

The initial motion of Blas is estimated to be 290/5 kt. A
well-established 500 mb ridge extending from the southern United
States across Mexico and into the eastern North Pacific should
continue to steer the tropical cyclone on a generally
west-northwestward track for the next few days. As Blas weakens in
the latter part of the forecast period, it is expected to turn
west-southwestward following the lower-level tradewind flow. The
track model guidance is in very good agreement throughout most of
the forecast period with some differences in forward speed later in
the period. The official forecast remains close to the model
consensus and very close to the previous NHC track forecast.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are beginning to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely continue through the end
of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 103.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.4N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 18.6N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 18.3N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 160232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...BLAS MAINTAINING 85 MPH WINDS BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME
MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 103.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 103.7 West. Blas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next several days with some increase
in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours
followed by gradual weakening through the end of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely to continue over the next several
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 160232
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0300 UTC THU JUN 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.6N 113.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.3N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 103.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 152200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 102.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 102.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.5N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.1N 105.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.7N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.4N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.0N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.3N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.8N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.5N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
152200Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 103.3W.
15JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1314 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 152054
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

The satellite presentation of Blas this afternoon remains quite
healthy, with deep cold cloud tops below -80 C near the center and a
well-defined curved band wrapping 3/4ths around the western side of
the cyclone. A late arriving AMSR2 pass at 1854 UTC still showed a
mid-level eye feature on 89-GHz, though it remains a bit open to
the east on the 37-GHz channel. Subjective Dvorak estimates from
1800 UTC were up to T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate has been holding steady at T4.4/75 kt.
These data support an initial intensity of 75 kt for this advisory.

Blas has maintained a general west-northwestward heading today,
currently estimated at 290/5 kt. The track philosophy has also not
changed much today, as a deep-layer ridge building westward to the
north of Blas is expected to maintain the cyclone on its current
heading with a bit of acceleration over the next couple of days.
Afterwards, Blas is likely to become increasingly steered by the
lower-level flow as it becomes vertically shallow, leading to a
slowdown and bend in the track to the west and west-southwest at the
end of the forecast period. There was a modest increase in forward
motion from the guidance suite this cycle, so the track forecast was
also nudged a bit faster, but is still very close to the previous
forecast track and near the reliable consensus aids.

Blas has intensified 30-kt in the last 24 hours, which qualifies as
rapid intensification. Whether of not this rate of intensification
continues likely hinges on the impact of moderate (20-30 kt)
easterly vertical wind shear which both the GFS and ECMWF suggest is
already impinging on the cyclone. The latest intensity forecast
still shows a peak of 85 kt in 24 h, but slows the rate of
intensification relative to the prior advisory. This forecast is on
the high side of the guidance envelope and is closest to the latest
SHIPS and LGEM runs. After 36 h, sea-surface temperatures begin to
rapidly decrease underneath Blas as it also moves towards an
increasingly dry and stable environment, as seen by the widespread
stratocumulus field to the northwest of the system on visible
satellite. Weakening is forecast to commence by Friday, with the
global model guidance now suggesting Blas could become a remnant low
by the end of the forecast period as convection ceases.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are beginning to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely continue through the end
of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.1N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.5N 104.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.1N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 16.7N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.4N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 18.0N 111.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 18.3N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 18.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 152046
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...BLAS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...
...SWELLS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 103.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 103.1 West. Blas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next several days with gradual
acceleration.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours followed by gradual weakening through the end of the
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely to continue over the next several
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 152045
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
2100 UTC WED JUN 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 103.1W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 105SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 103.1W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 105.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.4N 109.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.0N 111.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 112.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 102.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 102.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.3N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.8N 104.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.5N 106.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.1N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.7N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.2N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.8N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 103.0W.
15JUN22. HURRICANE 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1321 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z
AND 161600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 151457
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Since the prior advisory, the structure of Blas has continued to
improve on both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. In
fact, several SSMIS microwave passes indicate that Blas is
developing an inner core, with at least a banding mid-level eye
feature showing up on the 89-GHz channel. The latest 1200 UTC
subjective Dvorak estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt
from SAB. In addition, the most recent objective Dvorak estimates
from UW-CIMSS have been quickly increasing with the latest estimate
at T4.3/72 kt. A blend of the aforementioned data yields 65 kt for
the advisory initial intensity, making Blas a hurricane.

The center of Blas may have relocated a bit further south into the
large overnight convective burst, but its mean motion this morning
has continued a pronounced left turn, estimated at 290/4 kt. A
continued west-northwest motion with some acceleration is
anticipated over the next several days as the mid-level ridge
poleward of the storm continues to build in and extend westward
ahead of Blas. Towards the end of the forecast, Blas is expected to
become a shallow system, resulting in a slowing westward motion as
the low-level flow exerts greater influence. The latest forecast
track has been adjusted a bit south in the short-term based on the
adjusted initial position , but ends up just north of the previous
forecast by the end of the period, close to the center of the track
guidance envelope.

The most recent microwave images suggest that Blas is developing an
inner core, which would likely support further intensification today
as the system remains over warm (28-29 C) sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) embedded in sufficently high mid-level moisture. A possible
complicating factor is that both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance indicates easterly shear increasing to 20-25 kt over
the next 24-36 h. Assuming this does not play a major inhibiting
factor, the latest NHC forecast indicates continued intensification
and peaks Blas as category 2 hurricane in 24 h. After 36 h, Blas
will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, moving over sub 26 C waters
by 60 h. For this reason, weakening is anticipated to begin by
Friday. At the end of the forecast period, Blas is likely to lose
its deep-convective activity and become a shallow low-level vortex.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico beginning today and continuing through the end
of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 151454
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 102.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 102.8 West. Blas is now moving
toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next several days with gradual
acceleration.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours followed by gradual weakening by the end of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas are expected to reach the coast of
southwestern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 151453
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 102.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 102.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 102.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.7N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.2N 104.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.8N 105.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.3N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.9N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.4N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.0N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151000Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 102.6W.
15JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1316 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND
161000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 150845
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Blas is getting better organized,
with the center now embedded in a circular central dense overcast
that is mostly surrounded by outer convective bands. Subjective
and objective Dvorak technique intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and CIMSS are all 55 kt, so that will be the initial intensity for
this advisory.

Blas is starting its anticipated left turn and the initial motion
is now 330/5. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during
the next 24 h as Blas moves along the south side of a mid- to
upper-level ridge extending westward from central Mexico and this
general motion should continue with some increase in forward
speed for the next several days. The new forecast track has only
minor adjustments from the previous track, and it lies in the
middle of the track guidance envelope.

Blas has at least another 24 h of favorable conditions in which to
intensify, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane later
today. In about 24 hours, the storm is forecast to experience
increasing northeasterly shear, and it should move over cooler
water between 48-60 h. Based on these factors, and on the
intensity guidance, Blas is expected to peak in intensity in about
36 h, followed by a slow weakening through the rest of the forecast
period. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast, with the 80-kt peak intensity near the upper edge of the
guidance envelope.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, the
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico starting later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 15.2N 102.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 16.2N 104.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.8N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.3N 107.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.4N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 19.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 19.5N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 150845
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...BLAS STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 102.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.6 West. Blas is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected this morning, with a
west-northwestward motion expected late today or tonight. Blas is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Blas
is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas are expected to reach the coast of
southwestern Mexico later this morning. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 150844
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0900 UTC WED JUN 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.2N 104.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 105.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.3N 107.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.4N 111.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 19.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 102.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 83.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.06.2022 0 12.1N 83.0W 1010 26
1200UTC 15.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 91.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.06.2022 0 13.9N 91.5W 1009 27
1200UTC 15.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 102.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.06.2022 0 13.9N 102.2W 1002 25
1200UTC 15.06.2022 12 14.6N 102.4W 1001 29
0000UTC 16.06.2022 24 15.0N 103.1W 1001 31
1200UTC 16.06.2022 36 15.6N 104.8W 1001 31
0000UTC 17.06.2022 48 16.3N 107.1W 999 34
1200UTC 17.06.2022 60 17.0N 109.4W 998 37
0000UTC 18.06.2022 72 18.0N 111.3W 999 32
1200UTC 18.06.2022 84 18.9N 113.2W 1000 30
0000UTC 19.06.2022 96 19.5N 115.3W 1001 29
1200UTC 19.06.2022 108 19.4N 116.3W 1003 27
0000UTC 20.06.2022 120 19.4N 117.4W 1004 25
1200UTC 20.06.2022 132 18.9N 118.8W 1005 25
0000UTC 21.06.2022 144 18.5N 120.0W 1006 23

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 36.9N 71.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.06.2022 0 36.9N 71.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 15.06.2022 12 35.2N 68.5W 1007 35
0000UTC 16.06.2022 24 34.0N 63.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 16.06.2022 36 35.1N 54.9W 1001 39
0000UTC 17.06.2022 48 38.7N 50.2W 984 49
1200UTC 17.06.2022 60 41.2N 49.5W 983 43
0000UTC 18.06.2022 72 44.3N 49.9W 993 36
1200UTC 18.06.2022 84 48.3N 49.5W 1004 30
0000UTC 19.06.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.3N 91.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.06.2022 24 11.3N 91.1W 1007 24
1200UTC 16.06.2022 36 10.3N 90.5W 1008 29
0000UTC 17.06.2022 48 10.1N 90.0W 1008 24
1200UTC 17.06.2022 60 10.5N 88.6W 1009 25
0000UTC 18.06.2022 72 11.2N 88.1W 1008 22
1200UTC 18.06.2022 84 12.0N 88.3W 1008 24
0000UTC 19.06.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 150410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.06.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 83.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.06.2022 12.1N 83.0W WEAK
12UTC 15.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 91.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.06.2022 13.9N 91.5W WEAK
12UTC 15.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 102.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.06.2022 13.9N 102.2W WEAK
12UTC 15.06.2022 14.6N 102.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2022 15.0N 103.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2022 15.6N 104.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2022 16.3N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.06.2022 17.0N 109.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.06.2022 18.0N 111.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.06.2022 18.9N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.06.2022 19.5N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2022 19.4N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2022 19.4N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2022 18.9N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2022 18.5N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 36.9N 71.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.06.2022 36.9N 71.1W WEAK
12UTC 15.06.2022 35.2N 68.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2022 34.0N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2022 35.1N 54.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.06.2022 38.7N 50.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.06.2022 41.2N 49.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.06.2022 44.3N 49.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.06.2022 48.3N 49.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.3N 91.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.06.2022 11.3N 91.1W WEAK
12UTC 16.06.2022 10.3N 90.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2022 10.1N 90.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.06.2022 10.5N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.06.2022 11.2N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.06.2022 12.0N 88.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150410

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 102.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 102.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.4N 102.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.7N 103.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.2N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.8N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.4N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.9N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.8N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.2N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 102.3W.
15JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1345 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 150241
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Tropical Storm Blas has maintained a well-defined structure this
evening, with satellite images indicating prominent convective
banding. Deep convection has also significantly increased near the
circulation center during the past few hours, suggesting that an
increase in the storm's intensity is imminent. At this time, Dvorak
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB remain at 3.0, so the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

Blas is expected to strengthen during the next couple of days, as
the large-scale environment is forecast to remain conducive for
continued development. The cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane
strength tomorrow while remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
Later in the week, easterly shear is expected to increase in
association with an upper-level anticyclone building over Mexico,
and Blas will begin to traverse cooler waters. These large-scale
factors are expected to result in Blas weakening by this
weekend. The intensity forecast is higher than the consensus aids
and lower than HWRF, in line with the prior NHC forecast.

The initial motion is slightly west of north, or 350/4 kt, and Blas
is forecast to turn leftward and accelerate northwestward in the
next 12-24 hours followed by a west-northwestward motion. A
west-northwestward motion on the south side of a mid-level
ridge should continue into the weekend. The official track
forecast is very close to the prior NHC prediction and in good
agreement with the consensus track aids.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, the
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico starting tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.3N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.7N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 16.2N 104.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.8N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 17.4N 108.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.9N 110.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 19.2N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hogsett

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 150240
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...BLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 102.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 102.3 West. Blas is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and should turn
to the northwest overnight, and to the west-northwest by late
Wednesday. Blas is expected to continue moving west-northwestward
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Blas is
expected to become a hurricane tomorrow with further strengthening
possible on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas are expected to reach
the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hogsett


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 150240
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0300 UTC WED JUN 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.7N 103.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N 104.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.8N 106.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.9N 110.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 114.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 102.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/HOGSETT



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 102.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 102.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1N 102.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.4N 102.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.8N 103.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.3N 105.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.9N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.5N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.0N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142200Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 102.1W.
14JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1368 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 142059
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

The convective organization of Tropical Storm Blas continues to
improve based on satellite imagery which shows a convective core
forming with a well-defined mid-level circulation. The initial wind
speed has been raised to 45 kt and is in agreement with Dvorak
estimates.

Future intensification of Blas is expected in the short-term
forecast. The high SSTs and low vertical wind shear provide the
baseline conditions for the storm to quickly intensify in the next
24 h, as indicated by statistical model guidance. Beyond this
timeframe, environmental conditions are expected to become
increasingly unfavorable as an upper-level anticyclone builds over
Mexico and increases the shear over Blas. The NHC intensity
forecast is higher in the short-term than the last cycle and
reflects the potential for quicker intensification.

Blas continues to drift northward and the NHC track forecast has
been shifted northward primarily due to initial storm motion and
position. By tomorrow Blas is expected to turn west-northwestward
and gradually accelerate due to a building ridge and continue that
motion for the next several days. Model guidance has trended
northward and faster, potentially due to a deeper tropical cyclone
circulation feeling the upper-level easterly flow. The NHC
forecast is shifted in that direction near or just south of the
consensus guidance.

Even though the system is forecast to remain off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico starting later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 102.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.8N 103.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.3N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 18.6N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 142058
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...TROPICAL STORM BLAS INTENSIFYING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 102.0W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 102.0 West. Blas is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and Blas should turn to
the northwest overnight and to the west-northwest by late
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Blas is expected to become a hurricane
tomorrow with further strengthening possible on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blas are expected to reach
the coast of southwestern Mexico late today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 142057
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
2100 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.4N 102.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.8N 103.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 105.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 141600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 102.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 102.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.2N 102.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.6N 102.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.9N 103.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.4N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.6N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.9N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141600Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 102.1W.
14JUN22. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 141458
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone southwest of
Mexico continues to become better organized, with plenty of banding
in the eastern semicircle and increased central deep convection.
Dvorak estmates have increased to 35-45 kt, and the initial wind
speed is raised to 40 kt, making this system the second tropical
storm of the season.

The environment near Blas looks conducive for further
intensification during the next couple of days, with very warm
waters and generally light shear. However, increased northeasterly
shear is likely to begin on Thursday due to a building upper-level
anticyclone over Mexico. Model guidance is higher than the last
cycle, mostly due to the initial wind speed, and the NHC intensity
forecast matches that trend. Weakening should commence by the end
of the week due to stronger shear and cooler waters.

Blas is drifting northward, caught in an area of light steering
beneath a distant mid-tropospheric low over northern Mexico. The
tropical cyclone should move little today and then start moving to
the west-northwest at a faster pace due to the low moving out and a
ridge building over Mexico. This motion should take the system
gradually away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Similar
to the last cycle, although there is some spread in the models,
especially in terms of forward speed, they generally agree on the
overall scenario. This track forecast lies near the various
consensus aids, a bit north of the last NHC track forecast.

Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 141457
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 102.1W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 102.1 West. Blas is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). Little movement is
expected today, follow by a more steady motion toward the
west-northwest through mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Blas could
become a hurricane late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach
the coast of southwestern Mexico late today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 141456
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 102.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 140831
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system that NHC has
been monitoring off the coast of southwestern Mexico has now become
a tropical depression. Deep convection started to consolidate near
the center around 00Z, and it has increased and expanded since then.
In addition, the circulation appears better defined and
sufficiently meets the criteria needed for a tropical cyclone. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is a little lower than the
latest Dvorak estimates.

The depression is currently located a couple of hundred miles south
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and it is drifting
north-northwestward at 3 kt. This slow and likely erratic motion is
expected to continue for another 24 hours as the steering currents
remain weak, and the system is expected to remain close to, but
offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico during that time.
After that, however, a turn to the west-northwest with an increase
in forward speed is expected as a mid-level ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone. This motion should take the system gradually
away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Although there is
some spread in the models, especially in terms of forward
speed, they generally agree on the overall scenario. This track
forecast lies near the various consensus aids.

The depression appears to be strengthening now, and this
intensification trend will likely continue for about 36 hours as
the system remains over warm water and in an environment of low to
moderate shear and high moisture. After that time, however, the
intensification rate is expected to slow due to an increase in
easterly shear, and gradual weakening is anticipated to commence
around day 3 when the system moves into strong shear and heads
toward progressively cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast
lies at the high end of the models in the short term, but falls
near the middle of the guidance envelope between 48 and 120 h.

Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 13.6N 102.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.9N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 14.6N 103.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.1N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 15.5N 105.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 16.1N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 17.4N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 18.4N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 140831
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 102.4W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-E
was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 102.4 West. The
depression is drifting toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for another day or
so. After that time, a turn to the west-northwest with a gradual
increase in forward speed is forecast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 140831
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
0900 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.4W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.4W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.9N 102.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 102.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.6N 103.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 104.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.1N 107.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.4N 111.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.4N 113.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 102.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>