Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JASMINE-22
in Madagascar
25 Apr 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JASMINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (25 Apr 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 130 km/h 0.6 m 247 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 0.6 m 437 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Apr 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar6,956 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Apr 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Apr 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 24 Apr 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Apr 2022 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Madagascar
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Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

437 mm

Up to 290 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Apr 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmTanzania, Malawi, Madagascar292,277
+
Tanzania84,215 
Malawi40,911 
Madagascar167,150 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar12,529,358
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo284,611 
Rwanda510,182 
Tanzania7,169,241 
Kenya7,572 
Burundi1,659,238 
Zambia30,302 
Malawi412,403 
Mozambique154,149 
Madagascar2,301,655 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Apr 2022 12:00 300 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 2 24 Apr 2022 00:00 180 -
- - - - - Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Blue 3 24 Apr 2022 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Apr 2022 00:00 335 290 thousand
- - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Apr 2022 00:00 UTC