Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JASMINE-22
in Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 270600
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 220427090157
2022042706 24S JASMINE 012 01 090 16 SATL 060
T000 238S 0479E 030
T012 233S 0489E 030
T024 204S 0528E 025
AMP
012HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 47.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 47.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.4S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 48.2E.
27APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
295 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z
IS 16 FEET.
//
2422042006 116S 511E 20
2422042012 120S 499E 20
2422042018 122S 489E 20
2422042100 120S 478E 20
2422042106 118S 467E 20
2422042112 120S 460E 20
2422042118 126S 452E 20
2422042200 133S 441E 25
2422042206 135S 433E 25
2422042212 138S 427E 25
2422042218 141S 423E 30
2422042300 146S 416E 30
2422042306 153S 403E 30
2422042312 160S 400E 25
2422042318 167S 397E 30
2422042400 174S 395E 35
2422042406 179S 394E 40
2422042412 186S 394E 40
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042506 204S 403E 45
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042606 231S 423E 55
2422042606 231S 423E 55
2422042612 233S 433E 50
2422042612 233S 433E 50
2422042618 236S 442E 35
2422042700 238S 461E 25
2422042706 238S 479E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 47.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 47.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.4S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 48.2E.
27APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
295 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z
IS 16 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 270000
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 220427011627
2022042700 24S JASMINE 011 01 100 15 SATL 020
T000 238S 0458E 025
T012 233S 0490E 030
T024 217S 0515E 030
T036 203S 0528E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
024HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 23.8S 46.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 45.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.3S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.7S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.3S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270000Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 46.1E.
27APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
309 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270600Z, 271200Z, 271800Z AND 280000Z WILL BE
REPACKAGED FROM THE RSMC LA REUNION FORECAST.
//
2422042006 116S 511E 20
2422042012 120S 499E 20
2422042018 122S 489E 20
2422042100 120S 478E 20
2422042106 118S 467E 20
2422042112 120S 460E 20
2422042118 126S 452E 20
2422042200 133S 441E 25
2422042206 135S 433E 25
2422042212 138S 427E 25
2422042218 141S 423E 30
2422042300 146S 416E 30
2422042306 153S 403E 30
2422042312 160S 400E 25
2422042318 167S 397E 30
2422042400 174S 395E 35
2422042406 179S 394E 40
2422042412 186S 394E 40
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042506 204S 403E 45
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042606 231S 423E 55
2422042606 231S 423E 55
2422042612 233S 433E 50
2422042612 233S 433E 50
2422042618 236S 442E 35
2422042700 238S 461E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 270000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 23.8S 46.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 45.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.3S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.7S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.3S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270000Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 46.1E.
27APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
309 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270600Z, 271200Z, 271800Z AND 280000Z WILL BE
REPACKAGED FROM THE RSMC LA REUNION FORECAST.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270012
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/12/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.8 S / 46.1 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1005 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/04/2022 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 120 NO: 120

24H: 28/04/2022 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 95

36H: 28/04/2022 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE A LA
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE JASMINE S'EST BIEN AFFAIBLIE. LE DEPLACEMENT
S'EST ACCELERE LAISSANT TRANSITER ENCORE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 25KT
ET DES PRECIPITATIONS CONCERNEES LA PARTIE SUD DE MADAGASCAR.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LES RESTES DE JASMINE
CONTINUENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
AU NORD-OUEST ET DU FLUX D'OUEST EN MARGE DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. UNE FOIS RESSORTIE SUR MER, EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
MERCREDI, LES RESTES DE JASMINE DEVRAIENT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX DE
SUD-OUEST DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE EN LIEN AVEC LE FRONT FROID CIRCULANT
PLUS AU SUD. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES RESTES DE JASMINE S'ORIENTENT
VERS LES MASCAREIGNES EN SE DISSIPANT.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT SUR
TERRE. LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL RESSORT MERCREDI AU LARGE DES COTES
SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR MAIS DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE FAIRE ABSORBER PAR
UN FRONT FROID DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT HOSTILE, LAISSANT DES VENTS
POTENTIELLEMENT DE L'ORDRE DE 30KT DANS LA PARTIE SUD ET OUEST EN
LIEN AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU FRONT FROID.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
LORS DE SA TRAVERSEE DE MADAGASCAR, LES RESTES DE JASMINE VONT
APPORTER ENCORE DES PRECIPITATIONS SUR LA PARTIE SUD DE MADAGASCAR.
LES POPULATIONS DE CETTE ZONE SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE LES PREVISIONS
FAITES PAR LES SERVICES DE LA METEOROLOGIE MALGACHE.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270012
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/12/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 46.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/27 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 120

24H: 2022/04/28 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 95

36H: 2022/04/28 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION ON LAND JASMINE WEAKENED WELL. THE DISPLACEMENT HAS
ACCELERATED LEAVING STILL WINDS OF ABOUT 25KT AND PRECIPITATIONS
CONCERNED THE SOUTHERN PART OF MADAGASCAR.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE REMNANTS OF JASMINE CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ONCE OUT TO
SEA, DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF JASMINE SHOULD BE
PICKED UP AGAIN IN THE SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
IN CONNECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. ON THIS
TRACK, THE REMNANTS OF JASMINE ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS WHILE DISSIPATING.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND. THE
RESIDUAL LOW MAY EMERGE ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR BUT SHOULD QUICKLY BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, LEAVING WINDS POTENTIALLY IN THE ORDER OF 30KT
IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART IN CONNECTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
AS IT PASSES THROUGH MADAGASCAR, THE REMNANTS OF JASMINE WILL BRING
MORE RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. THE POPULATIONS OF
THIS AREA ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE FORECASTS MADE BY THE MALAGASY
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 261800
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 220426203520
2022042618 24S JASMINE 010 01 110 09 SATL 020
T000 236S 0442E 035 R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 238S 0474E 025
T024 226S 0503E 030
T036 212S 0518E 030
T048 196S 0532E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
036HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 23.6S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.8S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.6S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.2S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.6S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 45.0E.
26APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
236 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270000Z, 270600Z, 271200Z AND 271800Z WILL BE
REPACKAGED FROM THE RSMC LA REUNION FORECAST.
//
2422042006 116S 511E 20
2422042012 120S 499E 20
2422042018 122S 489E 20
2422042100 120S 478E 20
2422042106 118S 467E 20
2422042112 120S 460E 20
2422042118 126S 452E 20
2422042200 133S 441E 25
2422042206 135S 433E 25
2422042212 138S 427E 25
2422042218 141S 423E 30
2422042300 146S 416E 30
2422042306 153S 403E 30
2422042312 160S 400E 25
2422042318 167S 397E 30
2422042400 174S 395E 35
2422042406 179S 394E 40
2422042412 186S 394E 40
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042506 204S 403E 45
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042606 231S 423E 55
2422042606 231S 423E 55
2422042612 233S 433E 50
2422042612 233S 433E 50
2422042618 236S 442E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 23.6S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.8S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.6S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.2S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.6S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261800Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 45.0E.
26APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
236 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270000Z, 270600Z, 271200Z AND 271800Z WILL BE
REPACKAGED FROM THE RSMC LA REUNION FORECAST.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261825
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/12/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.6 S / 44.2 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/04/2022 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 27/04/2022 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 120 NO: 120

36H: 28/04/2022 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 95

48H: 28/04/2022 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE DE
JASMINE S'ETAIT MAINTENUE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DEPORTEE DANS LE
SECTEUR SUD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION A PRESENTE UN FORT REGAIN
D'ACTIVITE 2 HEURES AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE DE 15UTC SUR LA ZONE DE
TULEAR. AU COURS DES DERNIERES 3 HEURES DEPUIS L'ATTERRISSAGE,
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A FAIBLI MAIS RESTE ENCORE PRESENTE DANS LE
SECTEUR SUD-EST DE LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE. DES VENTS DE 35KT SONT
ENCORE POSSIBLES MAIS VONT FAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LES RESTES DE JASMINE
CONTINUENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE
LA DORSALE AU NORD-OUEST ET DU FLUX D'OUEST EN MARGE DU TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. DEMAIN, LES RESTES DE JASMINE DEVRAIENT ETRE
REPRIS DANS LE FLUX DE SUD-OUEST DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE UNE FOIS
RESSORTIE SUR MER ET S'ORIENTER VERS LES MASCAREIGNES EN SE
DISSIPANT.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT SUR
TERRE. LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL POURRAIT RESSORTIR MERCREDI AU LARGE DES
COTES SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR MAIS DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE FAIRE ABSORBER
PAR UN FRONT FROID DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT HOSTILE, LAISSANT DES VENTS
POTENTIELLEMENT DE L'ORDRE DE 30KT DANS LA PARTIE SUD ET OUEST EN
LIEN AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU FRONT FROID.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
LORS DE SA TRAVERSEE DE MADAGASCAR, LES RESTES DE JASMINE VONT
APPORTER ENCORE DES PRECIPITATIONS SUR LA PARTIE SUD DE MADAGASCAR.
LES POPULATIONS DE CETTE ZONE SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE LES PREVISIONS
FAITES PAR LES SERVICES DE LA METEOROLOGIE MALGACHE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261825
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/12/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 44.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/27 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/04/27 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 120

36H: 2022/04/28 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 95

48H: 2022/04/28 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

BEFORE ITS LANDFALL, THE SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN OF JASMINE WAS
MAINTAINED. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWED A STRONG INCREASE IN ACTIVITY 2
HOURS BEFORE THE LANDFALL OF 15UTC OVER THE TOLIARA AREA. DURING THE
LAST 3 HOURS SINCE THE LANDFALL, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
BUT IS STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF THE DEPRESSION ON
LAND. WINDS OF 35KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE REMNANTS OF JASMINE CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TOMORROW, THE REMNANTS OF JASMINE SHOULD BE PICKED UP BY THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE
SEA AND MOVE TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS WHILE DISSIPATING.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND. THE
RESIDUAL LOW MAY EMERGE ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR BUT SHOULD QUICKLY BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, LEAVING WINDS POTENTIALLY IN THE ORDER OF 30KT
IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART IN CONNECTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
AS IT PASSES THROUGH MADAGASCAR, THE REMNANTS OF JASMINE WILL BRING
MORE RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. THE POPULATIONS OF
THIS AREA ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE FORECASTS MADE BY THE MALAGASY
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 261807
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/04/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/04/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JASMINE) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 44.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 15
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/27 AT 06 UTC:
23.8 S / 47.4 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/04/27 AT 18 UTC:
22.6 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER
EMERGENCE ON SEA.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 261200
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 220426142529
2022042612 24S JASMINE 009 01 100 09 SATL 060
T000 233S 0433E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 238S 0460E 025
T024 234S 0488E 030
T036 218S 0509E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 23.3S 43.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 43.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.8S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.8S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 44.0E.
26APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
184 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z WILL BE REPACKAGED
FROM THE RSMC LA REUNION FORECAST.
//
2422042006 116S 511E 20
2422042012 120S 499E 20
2422042018 122S 489E 20
2422042100 120S 478E 20
2422042106 118S 467E 20
2422042112 120S 460E 20
2422042118 126S 452E 20
2422042200 133S 441E 25
2422042206 135S 433E 25
2422042212 138S 427E 25
2422042218 141S 423E 30
2422042300 146S 416E 30
2422042306 153S 403E 30
2422042312 160S 400E 25
2422042318 167S 397E 30
2422042400 174S 395E 35
2422042406 179S 394E 40
2422042412 186S 394E 40
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042506 204S 403E 45
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042606 231S 423E 55
2422042606 231S 423E 55
2422042612 233S 433E 50
2422042612 233S 433E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 261200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 23.3S 43.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 43.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.8S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.8S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 44.0E.
26APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
184 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z WILL BE REPACKAGED
FROM THE RSMC LA REUNION FORECAST.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261319
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/12/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 43.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/04/2022 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 27/04/2022 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 150

36H: 28/04/2022 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES LA CONFIGURATION DE JASMINE A EVOLUE
VERS UNE STRUCTURE PLUTOT CISAILLEE EN LIEN AVEC L'AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND D'OUEST (15/20KT D'APRES LE CIMSS), LES
DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (GMI 0624Z ET AMSR2 DE 1021Z) TEMOIGNENT
D'UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME AVEC UN MUR DE
L'OEIL OUVERT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. EN ACCORD AVEC LES
DERNIERES OBSERVATIONS DE TULEAR (VENT DE NORD-EST PROCHE DE 35KT A
ENVIRON 40KT DU CENTRE, 1000HPA) ET LES DERNIERES ANALYSES
SUBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 50KT.

JASMINE S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT ORIENTE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE AU
NORD-OUEST ET DU FLUX D'OUEST EN MARGE DU THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'EST EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. L'ARRIVEE SUR TERRE
EST IMMINENT A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE TULEAR. LES RESTES DE JASMINE
DEVRAIT ETRE DEMAIN REPRIS DANS LE FLUX DE SUD-OUEST DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
GRADUELLEMENT SE DEGRADER AUJOURD'HUI AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST COMBINEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENSUITE RAPIDEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR SUR TERRE. LE MINIMUM
RESIDUEL POURRAIT RESSORTIR MERCREDI AU LARGE DES COTES SUD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR MAIS DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE FAIRE ABSORBER PAR UN FRONT
FROID DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT HOSTILE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
LES CONDITIONS LES PLUS DEGRADEES ONT COMMENCES SUR LA REGION DE
TULEAR. L'AMELIORATION DEVRAIT SE DESSINER EN COURS DE NUIT. DES
RAFALES MAXIMALES DE 130 KM/H SONT POSSIBLES PRES DU CENTRE LORS DE
L'ATTERRISSAGE. DE FORTES INTENSITES PLUVIEUSES POUVANT DONNER DES
CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM EN QUELQUES HEURES VONT
CONCERNER LES REGIONS SITUEES A PROXIMITE SUD DU CENTRE. UNE SURCOTE
DE L'ORDRE DE 10 A 30 CM POUVANT OCCASIONNER DES SUBMERSIONS SUR DES
ZONES EXPOSEES AVEC LA HOULE EST POSSIBLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261319
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/12/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/27 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/04/27 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 150

36H: 2022/04/28 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST HOURS JASMINE'S PATTERN HAS EVOLVED TOWARDS A RATHER
SHEARED PATTERN IN RELATION WITH THE INCREASE OF THE DEEP WESTERLY
SHEAR (15/20KT ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS). THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES (
0624Z GMI AND 1021Z AMSR2) SHOW AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE INNER
CORE WITH AN OPEN EYEWALL IN THE NORTH WESTERN QUADRANT. IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM TULEAR (NORTHEASTERLY WIND CLOSE TO
35KT AT ABOUT 40KM FROM THE CENTER, 1000HPA) AND THE LAST SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS, THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50KT

JASMINE PROGRESSIVELY BEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD LASTLY, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN ITS NORTH-EAST AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EDGE OF THE MID LATITUDES TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS
EASTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR. THE LANDFALL IS
IMMINENT AND SHOULD OCCUR IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF TOLIARA. FROM
TOMORROW JASMINE REMNANTS SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH
AN INTRUSION OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. THE REMNANT LOW COULD EMERGE ON WEDNESDAY
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY MERGE WITH A
COLD FRONT IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
THE WORST WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED IN THE TOLIARA AREA. AN
IMPROVEMENT COULD TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM GUSTS OF 130 KM/H ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING AREA. HEAVY RAINS MAY GIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 100 TO 150 MM IN A FEW HOURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK. A SURGE IN
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 30 CM MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN EXPOSED AREAS WITH THE
SWELLS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 261231
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/04/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/04/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/27 AT 00 UTC:
23.8 S / 46.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/04/27 AT 12 UTC:
23.4 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 260600
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 220426074005
2022042606 24S JASMINE 008 01 125 09 SATL 060
T000 231S 0423E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 234S 0446E 030
T024 233S 0475E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 23.1S 42.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 42.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.4S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.3S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 42.9E.
26APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
128 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z WILL BE REPACKAGED FROM
THE RSMC LA REUNION FORECAST.//
2422042006 116S 511E 20
2422042012 120S 499E 20
2422042018 122S 489E 20
2422042100 120S 478E 20
2422042106 118S 467E 20
2422042112 120S 460E 20
2422042118 126S 452E 20
2422042200 133S 441E 25
2422042206 135S 433E 25
2422042212 138S 427E 25
2422042218 141S 423E 30
2422042300 146S 416E 30
2422042306 153S 403E 30
2422042312 160S 400E 25
2422042318 167S 397E 30
2422042400 174S 395E 35
2422042406 179S 394E 40
2422042412 186S 394E 40
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042506 204S 403E 45
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042606 231S 423E 55
2422042606 231S 423E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 23.1S 42.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 42.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.4S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.3S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 42.9E.
26APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
128 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z WILL BE REPACKAGED FROM
THE RSMC LA REUNION FORECAST.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260701
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/12/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.1 S / 42.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/04/2022 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 140 NO: 140

24H: 27/04/2022 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES LA CONFIGURATION DE JASMINE A EVOLUE
VERS UNE STRUCTURE DE BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT AUTOUR DU CENTRE
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. NEANMOINS, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT
RECHAUFFES ET L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SEMBLE AVOIR DU MAL A GARDER UN
CARACTERE DURABLE, AVEC DES BURSTS EPISODIQUES. CELA EST PROBABLEMENT
EN LIEN AVEC L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET LES PREMIERES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. NEANMOINS, LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE FIN DE
NUIT (SSMIS DE 0127Z) ET SURTOUT L'ASCAT DE 0603Z CONFIRMENT LA
SOLIDITE DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES ET LE MAINTIEN DE VENTS
DE FORCE TEMPETE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC MAINTENUE A 55KT.

JASMINE S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT ORIENTE VERS L'EST-SUD-SUD AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE AU
NORD-OUEST ET DU FLUX D'OUEST EN MARGE DU THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'EST EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. L'ARRIVEE SUR TERRE
DEVRAIT SE FAIRE EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU DEBUT DE NUIT A PROXIMITE DE LA
VILLE DE TULEAR.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
GRADUELLEMENT SE DEGRADER AUJOURD'HUI AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST COMBINEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.
MAIS EN FONCTION DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT, IL EXISTE UNE CERTAINE
INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING ET DONC L'IMPACT REEL DE CETTE
DETERIORATION.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENSUITE RAPIDEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR SUR TERRE. LE
MINIMUM RESIDUEL POURRAIT RESSORTIR MERCREDI AU LARGE DES COTES
SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR MAIS DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE FAIRE ABSORBER PAR
UN FRONT FROID DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT HOSTILE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
LE TEMPS A COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER SUR LA REGION DE TUELAR ET CELA
DEVRAIT CONTINUER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. DES RAFALES MAXIMALES
DE 130 KM/H SONT POSSIBLES PRES DU CENTRE LORS DE L'ATTERRISSAGE. DE
FORTES INTENSITES PLUVIEUSES POUVANT DONNER DES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE
L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM EN QUELQUES HEURES VONT CONCERNER LES REGIONS
SITUEES A PROXIMITE SUD DU CENTRE. SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 10 A 30 CM
POUVANT OCCASIONNER DES SUBMERSIONS SUR DES ZONES EXPOSEES AVEC LA
HOULE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260701
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/12/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/26 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 140

24H: 2022/04/27 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST HOURS, JASMINE'S PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO A CURVED BAND
STRUCTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
HOWEVER, CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO
STRUGGLE, WITH EPISODIC BURSTS. THIS IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE
INCREASE OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE FIRST INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR.
NEVERTHELESS, THE MICROWAVE DATA FROM LATE NIGHT ( 0127Z SSMIS) AND
ESPECIALLY THE 0603Z ASCAT CONFIRM THE SOLIDITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND THE PERSISTENCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS. THE INTENSITY
IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT 55KT.


JASMINE PROGRESSIVELY BEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD LASTLY, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AT ITS NORTH-EAST AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EDGE OF THE MID LATITUDES TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS
EASTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR. THE LANDFALL SHOULD
OCCURED AT THE END OF THE DAY OR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT NEAR
THE CITY OF TOLIARA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH
AN INTRUSION OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR. BUT DEPENDING ON THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING AND SO THE
REAL IMPACT OF THIS DETERIORATION.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN ON LAND. THE REMANANT LOW COULD
EMERGE ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT SHOULD
RAPIDLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
THE WEATHER DETERIORATION HAS STARTED NEAR TOLIARA AND THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD WORSEN IN THE NEXT HOURS. MAXIMUM GUSTS OF 130 KM/H ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING AREA. HEAVY RAINS MAY GIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 100 TO 150 MM IN A FEW HOURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK. A SURGE IN
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 30 CM MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN EXPOSED AREAS WITH THE
SWELLS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 260627
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/04/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/04/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/26 AT 18 UTC:
23.4 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/27 AT 06 UTC:
23.3 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 260000
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 220426020112
2022042600 24S JASMINE 007 01 155 04 SATL 020
T000 226S 0415E 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 234S 0429E 050 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 237S 0453E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 22.6S 41.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 41.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 23.4S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.7S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 41.9E.
26APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 76
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260600Z, 261200Z AND 261800Z WILL BE REPACKAGED FROM THE RSMC
LA REUNION FORECAST.//
2422042006 116S 511E 20
2422042012 120S 499E 20
2422042018 122S 489E 20
2422042100 120S 478E 20
2422042106 118S 467E 20
2422042112 120S 460E 20
2422042118 126S 452E 20
2422042200 133S 441E 25
2422042206 135S 433E 25
2422042212 138S 427E 25
2422042218 141S 423E 30
2422042300 146S 416E 30
2422042306 153S 403E 30
2422042312 160S 400E 25
2422042318 167S 397E 30
2422042400 174S 395E 35
2422042406 179S 394E 40
2422042412 186S 394E 40
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042506 204S 403E 45
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042512 211S 408E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042518 222S 413E 50
2422042600 226S 415E 55
2422042600 226S 415E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 260000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 22.6S 41.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 41.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 23.4S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.7S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 41.9E.
26APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 76
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260600Z, 261200Z AND 261800Z WILL BE REPACKAGED FROM THE RSMC
LA REUNION FORECAST.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260053
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/12/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.6 S / 41.5 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/04/2022 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 27/04/2022 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE JASMINE SUR
L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE A EU TENDANCE A LEGEREMENT SE DEGRADER AVEC UN
CENTRE MOINS NET. RECEMMENT, ELLE MONTRE A NOUVEAU QUELQUES SIGNES
D'AMELIORATION AVEC UNE CONVECTION VIGOUREUSE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE EST ABAISSEE A 55 KT COMPTE-TENU DE
CETTE EVOLUTION. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 ACQUISE PEU APRES 22Z
MONTRE UN COEUR CENTRAL ENCORE BIEN STRUCTURE (MALGRE UNE LEGERE
PERTE DE DEFINITION COMPARE A HIER SOIR) ET ALIGNE VERTICALEMENT.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE JASMINE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DU FLUX DIRECTEUR ACTUELLEMENT SITUE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET
CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR ET UN TALWEG QUI
CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD DU CANAL. ELLE A SENSIBLEMENT RALENTIT COMPARE A
HIER SOIR. AUJOURD'HUI, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTE PLUS FRANCHEMENT
VERS L'EST SOUS L'EFFET DU FLUX DIRECTEUR A FORTE COMPOSANTE OUEST,
LIE AU FLUX DE MOYENNE TROPO ASSOCIE AU TALWEG GLISSANT AU SUD DU
CANAL ET LA DORSALE QUI PIVOTE AU NORD DU SYSTEME. CELA DIRIGE AINSI
JASMINE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. L'ARRIVEE SUR TERRE
DEVRAIT SE FAIRE EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU DEBUT DE NUIT A PROXIMITE DE LA
VILLE DE TULEAR AVEC UN CONSENSUS DE MODELES QUI DEVIENT DE PLUS EN
PLUS CONSISTANT SUR CETTE PREVISION.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
GRADUELLEMENT SE DEGRADER AUJOURD'HUI AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST COMBINEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.
MAIS EN FONCTIOON DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT, IL EXISTE UNE
CERTAINE INCERTITUDE SUR L'IMPACT REELLE DE CETTE DETERIORATION DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES ONT TENDANCE A
SUGGERER UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT OU UNE TENDANCE STABLE D'ICI LE
LANDFALL. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE A DONC ENCORE ETE LEGEREMENT
REHAUSSEE PAR RAPPORT A LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENSUITE RAPIDEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR SUR TERRE. LE
MINIMUM RESIDUEL POURRAIT RESSORTIR MERCREDI AU LARGE DES COTES
SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR EN EVOLUANT EN BORDURE NORD D'UN FRONT FROID.
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT HOSTILE, IL N'AURA AUCUN POTENTIEL DE
REDEVELOPPEMENT.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

-MADAGASCAR: DEGRADATION DU TEMPS CET APRES-MIDI (HEURE LOCALE
MADAGASCAR) AVEC ATTERRISSAGE EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE DANS LA
REGION DE TULEAR. DES RAFALES MAXIMALES DE 130 KM/H SONT POSSIBLES
PRES DU CENTRE LORS DE L'ATTERRISSAGE. DE FORTES INTENSITES
PLUVIEUSES POUVANT DONNER DES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150
MM EN QUELQUES HEURES VONT CONCERNER LES REGIONS SITUEES A PROXIMITE
SUD DU CENTRE. SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 10 A 30 CM POUVANT OCCASIONNER
DES SUBMERSIONS SUR DES ZONES EXPOSEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260053
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/12/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 41.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/26 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2022/04/27 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

DURING THE NIGHT, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF JASMINE ON THE CLASSICAL
IMAGERY HAS TENDED TO DEGRADE SLIGHTLY WITH A LESS CLEAR CENTER.
RECENTLY, IT SHOWS AGAIN SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT WITH VIGOROUS
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE ANALYZED INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 55 KT CONSIDERING THIS EVOLUTION. THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGERY ACQUIRED SHORTLY AFTER 22Z SHOWS A CENTRAL CORE STILL WELL
STRUCTURED (DESPITE A SLIGHT LOSS OF DEFINITION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
EVENING) AND VERTICALLY ALIGNED.

THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF JASMINE REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING FLOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE AND CHANNELED BY A RIDGE EAST OF MADAGASCAR AND A
TROUGH THAT CIRCULATES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL. IT HAS SLOWED
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING. TODAY, THE TRACK IS
TURNING MORE EASTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRONG WESTWARD
DIRECTIONAL FLOW, LINKED TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLIDING TROUGH SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL AND THE RIDGE THAT PIVOTS
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS DIRECTS JASMINE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE LANDFALL SHOULD BE DONE AT THE END OF THE DAY OR
BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT NEAR THE CITY OF TULEAR WITH A CONSENSUS OF
MODELS WHICH BECOMES MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH
AN INTRUSION OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR. BUT DEPENDING ON THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS
DETERIORATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE TENDS
TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT WEAKENING OR STABLE TREND BETWEEN NOW AND
LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASED AGAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN ON LAND. THE REMANANT LOW COULD
EMERGE ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, IT
WILL HAVE NO POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:

-MADAGASCAR: WEATHER DETERIORATION THIS AFTERNOON (LOCAL TIME
MADAGASCAR) WITH LANDFALL LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING IN THE TULEAR
REGION. MAXIMUM GUSTS OF 130 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER. HEAVY
RAINFALL INTENSITIES THAT MAY GIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF THE ORDER OF
100 TO 150 MM IN A FEW HOURS WILL CONCERN THE REGIONS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SURGE IN THE ORDER OF 10 TO 30 CM MAY CAUSE
FLOODING IN EXPOSED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 260029
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/04/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/04/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 41.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/26 AT 12 UTC:
23.4 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/27 AT 00 UTC:
23.7 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251914
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/12/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 41.3 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/04/2022 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 26/04/2022 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 55

36H: 27/04/2022 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

VERS 15Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE JASMINE A EVOLUE VERS UNE
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL MAL DEFINI ET ASSEZ LARGE. CETTE CONFIGURATION
A COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER DEPUIS 17Z AVEC DES SOMMETS SE RA CHAUFFANT
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES DE LA SOIREE (SSMIS
DE 1413Z) MONTRE QUE LE COEUR INTERNE S'EST BIEN CONSOLIDE COMPARE A
PLUS TOT DANS LA JOURNEE, AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL LARGE MAIS BIEN
DEFINI EN 91 GHZ. L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 60 KT (BIEN AU-DESSUS DES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES A 40-50 KT) EN SE BASANT SUR L'ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK CORROBOREE PAR UNE PASS SMAP DONNANT DES VENTS A
63 KT A 1533Z.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE JASMINE RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
ACTUELLEMENT SITUE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE
A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR ET UN TALWEG QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD DU CANAL.
A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS
L'EST SOUS L'EFFET DU FLUX DIRECTEUR A FORTE COMPOSANTE OUEST, LIE AU
FLUX DE MOYENNE TROPO ASSOCIE AU TALWEG GLISSANT AU SUD DU CANAL ET
LA DORSALE QUI PIVOTE AU NORD DU SYSTEME. CELA DIRIGE AINSI JASMINE
EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR ET LES DERNIERES TENDANCES
DES PREVISIONS TABLENT POUR UNE ARRIVEE PLUS PRECOCE SUR LES COTES
MALAGACHES ET SENSIBLEMENT PLUS AU SUD QUE PRECEDEMMENT ENVISAGE.
L'ARRIVEE SUR TERRE DEVRAIT SE FAIRE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H
(POTENTIELLEMENT MEME PLUS TOT QUE CE QUI EST INDIQUE DANS LA
PREVISION OFFICIELLE)

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
GRADUELLEMENT SE DEGRADER A PARTIR DE MARDI AVEC LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST COMBINEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. C'EST DONC UN SYSTEME EN PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT QUI
DEVRAIT ABORDER LES COTES MAIS QUI SERA ENCORE ASSOCIER A DES VENTS
FORTS (STADE SUPERIEUR DE LA TEMPETE MODEREE PREVUE MAIS IL N'EST PAS
IMPOSSIBLE QUE LE SYSTEME REUSSISSE A SE MAINTENIR AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE).

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

-MADAGASCAR: ATTERRISSAGE DANS 24H VOIRE MOINS PLUTOT DANS LA REGION
DE TULEAR. DES RAFALES MAXIMALES JUSQU'A 120 VOIRE 130 KM/H SONT
POSSIBLES LORS DE L'ATTERRISSAGE AVEC DE FORTES INTENSITES PLUVIEUSES
POUVANT DONNER DES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 150MM/24H. SURCOTE
DE L'ORDRE DE 10 A 30 CM POUVANT OCCASIONNER DES SUBMERSIONS MINEURES
SUR DES ZONES EXPOSEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251914
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/12/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 41.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/26 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2022/04/26 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 55

36H: 2022/04/27 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+.

AROUND 15Z, THE JASMINE CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVED INTO AN ILL-DEFINED AND
RATHER LARGE EYE PATTERN. THIS CONFIGURATION HAS STARTED TO DEGRADE
SINCE 17Z WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF THE EVENING (SSMIS FROM 1413Z) SHOWS THAT THE
INNER CORE HAS CONSOLIDATED WELL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE DAY, WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE BUT WELL-DEFINED EYE IN 91 GHZ. THE INTENSITY
IS ESTIMATED AT 60 KT (WELL ABOVE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AT 40-50 KT)
BASED ON DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CORROBORATED BY A SMAP PASS
GIVING WINDS AT 63 KT AT 1533Z.

THE MOVEMENT OF JASMINE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING
FLOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND CHANNELED BY A
RIDGE EAST OF MADAGASCAR AND A TROUGH THAT CIRCULATES FURTHER SOUTH
OF THE CHANNEL. FROM TUESDAY ON, THE TRAJECTORY IS TURNING MORE
EASTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRONG WESTWARD DIRECTIONAL FLOW,
LINKED TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLIDING TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL AND THE RIDGE THAT PIVOTS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS IS DIRECTING JASMINE TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR AND THE
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS ARE FOR AN EARLIER ARRIVAL ON THE MALAGASY
COAST AND SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
LANDFALL SHOULD BE DONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS (POTENTIALLY EVEN
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST)

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASE OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR
COMBINED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. IT
IS THEREFORE A SYSTEM IN A WEAKENING PHASE THAT SHOULD APPROACH THE
COASTS BUT WHICH WILL STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS (UPPER
STAGE OF THE MODERATE STORM EXPECTED BUT IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT
THE SYSTEM SUCCEEDS IN MAINTAINING THE STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL
STORM).

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

-MADAGASCAR: LANDFALL IN 24 HOURS OR LESS IN THE TULEAR AREA. MAXIMUM
GUSTS UP TO 120 OR EVEN 130 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LANDFALL
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INTENSITIES THAT CAN GIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ABOUT 150MM/24H. SURGE OF ABOUT 10 TO 30 CM MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
IN EXPOSED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 251815
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/04/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 41.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/26 AT 06 UTC:
22.9 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/26 AT 18 UTC:
23.1 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251221
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/12/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 40.8 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/04/2022 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 26/04/2022 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75

36H: 27/04/2022 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 55

48H: 27/04/2022 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 165 NO: 95

60H: 28/04/2022 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 28/04/2022 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE INCURVEE DE JASMINE S'EST
MAINTENUE AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES AVEC UNE EXTENSION DE
L'ENROULEMENT QUI PERSISTE. LES DERNIERES LOCALISATIONS PERMETTENT DE
NOTER QUE JASMINE MAINTIENT SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT AUX ALENTOURS
DE 8KT. AVEC LES CONDITIONS DE CISAILLEMENT EXISTANTES, CETTE VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT NE PERMETTRA PLUS AU SYSTEME DE MAINTENIR VOIRE
AUGMENTER SON INTENSITE. LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL VISIBLE SUR LES DONNEES
GPM DE 0720UTC EN BASSES COUCHES CONFIRME DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE
50KT, VALIDANT L'ESTIMATION DVORAK.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE JASMINE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST STAGNE A UNE
VITESSE DE 8KT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR ACTUELLEMENT SITUE
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DE
MADAGASCAR ET UN TALWEG QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD DU CANAL. A PARTIR DE
MARDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS L'EST SOUS
L'EFFET DU FLUX DIRECTEUR A FORTE COMPOSANTE OUEST, LIE AU FLUX DE
MOYENNE TROPO ASSOCIE AU TALWEG GLISSANT AU SUD DU CANAL. CELA DIRIGE
AINSI JASMINE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR, SCENARIO QUI
EST DE PLUS EN PLUS MARQUE DANS LES MODELES. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE
SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SEMBLE ENVISAGEABLE A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR OU
MERCREDI.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT MOINS RAPIDE DE JASMINE
QUI NE COMPENSE QUE PARTIELLEMENT LES CONDITIONS DE CISAILLEMENT, LE
SYSTEME VA AVOIR DU MAL A S'INTENSIFIER MALGRE UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LE SYSTEME VA DONC
TRANSITER A PROXIMITE DE EUROPA AVEC UNE INTENSITE MOINDRE PAR
RAPPORT AUX PREVISIONS PRECEDENTES. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST COMBINEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT LE SYSTEME AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR. UNE FOIS SUR TERRE, JASMINE DEVRAIT SE
DISSIPER TOTALEMENT SUR TERRE D'ICI JEUDI, LAISSANT UN VORTEX
RESIDUEL QUI POURRAIT RESSORTIR SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR A PLUS
LONGUE ECHEANCE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
-ILES DU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE (EUROPA) : DEGRADATION CE LUNDI
AVEC RAFALES POUVANT AVOISINER 100 KM/H LORS DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES
DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI, CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100/150
MM EN 24HEURES ET VAGUES DE 4 A 5 METRES DEFERLANT SUR LES FACADES
NORD DES TERRES PUIS FAIBLISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT.
-MADAGASCAR : ATTERRISSAGE POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR OU
MERCREDI ENTRE LES REGIONS DE TULEAR ET DE MORONDAVA. DES RAFALES
MAXIMALES DE L'ORDRE DE 100KM/H SONT ATTENDUES LORS DE L'ATTERRISSAGE
AVEC DES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 150MM/24H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/12/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 40.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/26 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/04/26 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75

36H: 2022/04/27 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2022/04/27 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 165 NW: 95

60H: 2022/04/28 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/04/28 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN OF JASMINE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN ROLL EXTENSION THAT PERSISTS. THE LAST
LOCATIONS ALLOW TO NOTE THAT JASMINE MAINTAINS ITS SPEED OF MOVEMENT
AROUND 8KT. WITH THE EXISTING SHEAR CONDITIONS, THIS SPEED OF
MOVEMENT WILL NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN OR INCREASE ITS
INTENSITY. THE EYE STRUCTURE VISIBLE ON THE GPM DATA OF 0720UTC IN
LOW LAYERS CONFIRMS WINDS OF ABOUT 50KT, VALIDATING THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE.

JASMINE'S SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT STAGNATES AT A SPEED OF 8KT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIRECTIONAL FLOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, CHANNELED BY A RIDGE EAST OF MADAGASCAR AND A TROUGH
THAT CIRCULATES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL. FROM TUESDAY, THE TRACK
WILL BE MORE EASTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRONG WESTERLY
DIRECTIONAL FLOW, LINKED TO THE MID-TROPO FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLIDING TROUGH SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL. THIS DIRECTS JASMINE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST OF MADAGASCAR, A SCENARIO WHICH IS MORE AND MORE MARKED IN
THE MODELS. A LANDFALL OVER SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR SEEMS POSSIBLE
FROM TUESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF JASMINE WHICH ONLY
PARTIALLY COMPENSATES FOR THE SHEAR CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY INTENSIFYING DESPITE A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A
STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE TRANSIT NEAR
EUROPA WITH A LOWER INTENSITY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
STARTING ON TUESDAY, THE INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
MORE MARKEDLY BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR. ONCE ON LAND,
JASMINE SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OVER LAND BY THURSDAY, LEAVING A
RESIDUAL VORTEX THAT COULD EMERGE OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
IN THE LONGER TERM.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-SOUTH MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ISLANDS (EUROPA) : DEGRADATION EXPECTED
THIS MONDAY WITH GUSTS WHICH CAN APPROACH 100 KM/H DURING THE CLOSEST
PASSAGE IN THE NIGHT OF MONDAY TO TUESDAY, CUMULATED RAIN IN THE
ORDER OF 100/150 MM IN 24 HOURS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METERS BREAKING
ON THE NORTHERN FACADES OF THE ISLANDS THEN WEAKENING GRADUALLY.
-MADAGASCAR : LANDFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN THE REGIONS OF TULEAR AND MORONDAVA. MAXIMUM GUSTS OF ABOUT
100KM/H ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LANDFALL WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ABOUT 150MM/24H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 251200
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/04/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 40.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/26 AT 00 UTC:
21.7 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/26 AT 12 UTC:
22.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 220425075737
2022042506 24S JASMINE 004 01 140 09 SATL 060
T000 204S 0403E 045 R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 213S 0408E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 219S 0418E 045 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 217S 0430E 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 211S 0443E 035 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 197S 0452E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 40.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 40.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.3S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.9S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.7S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.1S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.7S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 40.4E.
25APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
108 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z
AND 260900Z WILL BE REPACKAGED FROM THE RSMC LA REUNION FORECAST.//
2422042006 116S 511E 20
2422042012 120S 499E 20
2422042018 122S 489E 20
2422042100 120S 478E 20
2422042106 118S 467E 20
2422042112 120S 460E 20
2422042118 126S 452E 20
2422042200 133S 441E 25
2422042206 135S 433E 25
2422042212 138S 427E 25
2422042218 141S 423E 30
2422042300 146S 416E 30
2422042306 153S 403E 30
2422042312 160S 400E 25
2422042318 167S 397E 30
2422042400 174S 395E 35
2422042406 179S 394E 40
2422042412 186S 394E 40
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042500 197S 397E 50
2422042506 204S 403E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 40.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 40.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.3S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.9S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.7S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.1S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.7S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 40.4E.
25APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
108 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z
AND 260900Z WILL BE REPACKAGED FROM THE RSMC LA REUNION FORECAST.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250635
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/12/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 40.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/04/2022 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 35

24H: 26/04/2022 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 26/04/2022 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 27/04/2022 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65

60H: 27/04/2022 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 185 NO: 120

72H: 28/04/2022 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

PAS D'EVOLUTION AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EN BANDE INCURVEE DE JASMINE S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC UNE LEGERE
BAISSE DE L'EXTENSION DE L'ENROULEMENT ET UNE CONVECTION MOINS
MARQUEE. LES DONNEES SSMIS DE 0120UTC PERMET DE NOTER ENCORE UN LEGER
CISAILLEMENT ET UNE STRUCTURE MIEUX DEFINIE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
AVEC UN OEIL JUSTIFIANT DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ET L'ADT RESTENT PROCHES DE 3.5., L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 50KT. LES OBSERVATIONS DE LA STATION DE EUROPA AINSI QUE
CELLE D'UN BATEAU A PROXIMITE VALIDE LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT.

LE MOUVEMENT DE JASMINE S'ACCELERE LEGEREMENT EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-EST, LUI PERMETTANT D'ECHAPPER PARTIELLEMENT A LA CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST ACTUELLEMENT SITUE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR ET UN
TALWEG QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD DU CANAL. CELA LAISSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
GLOBALEMENT VERS DE SUD-SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 18H. A PARTIR
DE MARDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT TRES INCERTAINE, DEPENDANT DE
L'INTENSITE QU'AURA LE SYSTEME A CE MOMENT. LE CHOIX DU CMRS EST UN
VIRAGE PLUS OU MOINS MARQUE VERS L'EST SOUS L'EFFET DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
A FORTE COMPOSANTE OUEST, LIE AU FLUX DE MOYENNE TROPO ASSOCIE AU
TALWEG GLISSANT AU SUD DU CANAL. CELA DIRIGE AINSI JASMINE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR, MAIS LES MODELES SONT FORTEMENT
DISPERSES. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SEMBLE
ENVISAGEABLE A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR OU MERCREDI.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JASMINE BENEFICIE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN (BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE,
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE), MALGRE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE MODEREE QUE LE SYSTEME COMPENSE PAR UN DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE.
UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT POURRAIT MARQUER UN AFFAIBLISEMENT PLUS
RAPIDE ET UNE TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTANT PLUS VERS LE NORD. A PARTIR DE
MARDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST, LIEE AU PASSAGE DU TALWEG
PLUS AU SUD, COMBINEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT
AVANT SON APPROCHE SUR MADAGASCAR. EN CAS D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR, UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE EST AUSSI A ATTENDRE SUR LES
TERRES. EN CONSEQUENCE, IL EST PROBABLE QUE LE SYSTEME SE DISSIPE
TOTALEMENT SUR TERRE D'ICI JEUDI OU VENDREDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
-ILES DU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE (BASSAS DA INDIA, EUROPA) :
DEGRADATION ATTENDUE CE LUNDI AVEC RAFALES POUVANT AVOISINER 120 KM/H
LORS DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI, CUMULS DE
PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100/150 MM EN 24HEURES ET VAGUES DE 4 A 5 METRES
DEFERLANT SUR LES FACADES NORD DES TERRES PUIS FAIBLISSANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT.
-MADAGASCAR : ATTERRISSAGE POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR OU
MERCREDI ENTRE LES REGIONS DE TULEAR ET DE MORONDAVA, MAIS AVEC FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR TIMING, LOCALISATION ET INTENSITE. DES RAFALES
MAXIMALES DE L'ORDRE DE 100KM/H SONT ATTENDUES LORS DE L'ATTERRISSAGE
AVEC DES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 150MM/24H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/12/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 40.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/25 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 35

24H: 2022/04/26 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/04/26 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/04/27 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

60H: 2022/04/27 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 120

72H: 2022/04/28 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

NO EVOLUTION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN
OF JASMINE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE ROLL
EXTENSION AND A LESS MARKED CONVECTION. THE SSMIS DATA FROM 0120UTC
STILL SHOW A SLIGHT SHEAR AND A BETTER DEFINED STRUCTURE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, WITH AN EYE JUSTIFYING WINDS OF ABOUT 50KT. THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND THE ADT REMAIN CLOSE TO 3.5., THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50KT. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE EUROPA STATION
AS WELL AS FROM A NEARBY BOAT VALIDATE THE WIND EXTENSIONS.

THE MOVEMENT OF JASMINE IS SLIGHTLY ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHEAST,
ALLOWING IT TO PARTIALLY ESCAPE THE SHEAR STRESS. THE STEERING FLOW
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, CHANNELED BY A RIDGE
EAST OF MADAGASCAR AND A TROUGH THAT CIRCULATES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
CHANNEL. THIS LEAVES A TRACK GLOBALLY TOWARDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING
THE NEXT 18 HOURS. FROM TUESDAY, THE TRACK BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN,
DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. THE CHOICE OF
THE RSMC IS A MORE OR LESS MARKED TURN TO THE EAST UNDER THE EFFECT
OF THE STRONG WESTERN COMPONENT OF THE STEERING FLOW, LINKED TO THE
MID-TROPO FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLIDING TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
CHANNEL. THIS DIRECTS JASMINE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST OF MADAGASCAR,
BUT THE MODELS ARE STRONGLY SCATTERED. A LANDFALL OVER SOUTH-WESTERN
MADAGASCAR SEEMS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JASMINE BENEFITS FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING (GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL), DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE SHEAR
STRESS THAT THE SYSTEM COMPENSATES BY A FAST MOVEMENT. A SLOWER
DISPLACEMENT COULD MARK A FASTER WEAKENING AND A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR, LINKED
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH, COMBINED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY BEFORE ITS APPROACH TO MADAGASCAR. IN CASE OF A
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR, A CLASSICAL WEAKENING IS ALSO EXPECTED ON THE
LAND. AS A CONSEQUENCE, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
TOTALLY ON LAND BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-SOUTH MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ISLANDS (BASSAS DA INDIA, EUROPA) :
DEGRADATION EXPECTED THIS MONDAY WITH GUSTS WHICH CAN APPROACH 120
KM/H DURING THE CLOSEST PASSAGE IN THE NIGHT OF MONDAY TO TUESDAY,
CUMULATED RAIN IN THE ORDER OF 100/150 MM IN 24 HOURS AND WAVES OF 4
TO 5 METERS BREAKING ON THE NORTHERN FACADES OF THE ISLANDS THEN
WEAKENING GRADUALLY.
-MADAGASCAR : LANDFALL IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT GUARANTEED) FROM TUESDAY
EVENING OR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE REGIONS OF TULEAR AND MORONDAVA, BUT
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM
GUSTS OF ABOUT 100KM/H ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LANDFALL WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 150MM/24H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 250602
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/04/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 40.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/25 AT 18 UTC:
21.8 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/26 AT 06 UTC:
22.5 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250035
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/12/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 40.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/04/2022 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 26/04/2022 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 26/04/2022 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 27/04/2022 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 27/04/2022 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 28/04/2022 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE JASMINE
A PROGRESSIVEMENT EVOLUE D'UNE STRUCTURE EN CDO VERS UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT SUR PRES D'UN TOUR, AVEC
UNE CONVECTION ORAGEUSE TOUJOURS TRES ACTIVE. LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 2307Z
MONTRE QU'UN ANNEAU CENTRAL PARTIEL EST EN FORMATION, RESTANT OUVERT
DU COTE NORD-OUEST ET INCLINE PAR LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ET L'ADT RESTENT PROCHES DE 3.5. EN L'ABSENCE
D'AUTRES DONNEES, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 50KT.

LE MOUVEMENT DE JASMINE S'ACCELERE LEGEREMENT EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-EST CE LUNDI, LUI PERMETTANT D'ECHAPPER PARTIELLEMENT A LA
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST ACTUELLEMENT SITUE EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR
ET UN TALWEG SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT TRES INCERTAINE, DEPENDANT DE L'INTENSITE QU'AURA
LE SYSTEME A CE MOMENT. UN VIRAGE PLUS OU MOINS MARQUE VERS L'EST OU
NORD-EST DEVRAIT SE FAIRE, MAIS LES MODELES SONT FORTEMENT DISPERSES.
CERTAINES OPTIONS MAINTIENNENT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR A FORTE COMPOSANTE
OUEST, LIE AU FLUX DE MOYENNE TROPO ASSOCIE AU TALWEG GLISSANT AU SUD
DU CANAL, DIRIGEANT AINSI JASMINE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR, TANDIS QUE D'AUTRES SCENARIOS PRIVILEGIENT UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR REDESCENDANT EN BASSES COUCHES AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CE QUI FERAIT REMONTER LE SYSTEME VERS LE NORD EN LONGEANT
LA COTE OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SOUS L'INFLUENCE DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI
SE RENFORCERONT ALORS SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS
FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE CES DIVERSES OPTIONS ET EST ASSORTIE D'UNE
INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA NORMALE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE
SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SEMBLE ENVISAGEABLE A PARTIR DE MARDI
APRES-MIDI OU MERCREDI, MAIS LE TIMING ET LA LOCALISATION RESTENT
ENCORE LARGEMENT A PRECISER.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JASMINE BENEFICIE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN (BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE,
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE), MALGRE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE MODEREE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST, LIEE AU PASSAGE DU TALWEG PLUS AU SUD, COMBINEE A UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT AVANT SON APPROCHE DE MADAGASCAR
(FORTE INCERTITUDE A CE SUJET). EN CAS D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR,
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE EST AUSSI A ATTENDRE SUR LES TERRES. EN
CONSEQUENCE, IL EST PROBABLE QUE LE SYSTEME SE DISSIPE TOTALEMENT
D'ICI JEUDI OU VENDREDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
-ILES DU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE (BASSAS DA INDIA, EUROPA) :
DEGRADATION ATTENDUE LUNDI SOIR OU NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC RAFALES POUVANT
AVOISINER 100 KM/H, CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM, VAGUES DE 4
A 5 METRES.
-MADAGASCAR : ATTERRISSAGE POSSIBLE (MAIS PAS GARANTI) A PARTIR DE
MARDI APRES-MIDI OU MERCREDI ENTRE LES REGIONS DE TULEAR ET DE
MORONDAVA, MAIS AVEC FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR TIMING, LOCALISATION ET
INTENSITE. LE NORD DE LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA SEMBLE LA PLUS
EXPOSEE (PLUIES SOUTENUES, RAFALES DE VENT).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250035
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/12/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 40.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/25 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/04/26 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2022/04/26 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/04/27 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2022/04/27 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/04/28 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/29 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, JASMINE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY
EVOLVED FROM A CDO TO A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING ALMOST A FULL
TURN, DISPLAYING STILL VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE 2307Z AMSR2 PASS
SHOWS A FORMING INNER CORE STILL OPEN ON ITS NORTHWESTERN SIDE AND
VERTICALLY TILTED DUE TO WIND SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND
ADT ESTIMATES REMAIN CLOSE TO 3.5. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER DATA, THE
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50KT.

JASMINE'S MOVEMENT IS ACCELERATING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD THIS MONDAY,
ALLOWING IT TO PARTIALLY ESCAPE FROM THE SHEARED CONSTRAINT. THE
STEERING FLOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE MID-LEVELS, CHANNELED BY A
RIDGE EAST OF MADAGASCAR AND A TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. FROM
TUESDAY, THE TRACK BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM AT THAT MOMENT. A MORE OR LESS SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR, BUT MODELS ARE STRONGLY DISPERSED.
SOME OPTIONS MAINTAIN A STEERING FLOW WITH A STRONG WESTERLY
COMPONENT, LINKED TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BY-PASSING TROUGH SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THUS DIRECTING
JASMINE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST OF MADAGASCAR, WHILE OTHER SCENARIOS
FAVOR A STEERING FLOW SHIFTING BACK DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO A
MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING TREND, WHICH WOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM TURN
MORE FRANKLY NORTHWARDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURES WHICH RE-BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA.
THE RSMC'S TRACK MAKES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VARIOUS OPTIONS AND
HAS AN ABOVE-AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH-WEST OF
MADAGASCAR SEEMS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY, BUT
THE TIMING AND LOCATION STILL REMAIN LARGELY TO BE SPECIFIED.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JASMINE BENEFITS FROM FAIRY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING (GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT), DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A
MODERATE SHEAR CONSTRAINT. FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, COMBINED WITH
DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID-LEVELS, SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE OR
LESS RAPIDLY BEFORE ITS APPROACH OF MADAGASCAR (HIGH UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THIS). IN CASE OF LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR, A CLASSIC WEAKENING
IS ALSO TO BE EXPECTED OVER LAND. CONSEQUENTLY, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-SOUTH MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ISLANDS (BASSAS DA INDIA, EUROPA) :
DISTURBED CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH GUSTS NEARING 100 KM/H, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO
100 MM, 4-TO-5-METER WAVES.
-MADAGASCAR : LANDFALL IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT GUARANTEED) FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE REGIONS OF TULEAR AND MORONDAVA,
BUT WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY. THE
NORTH OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION SEEMS THE MOST EXPOSED (HEAVY
RAINS, WIND GUSTS).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 250012
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 25/04/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 40.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/25 AT 12 UTC:
21.2 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/26 AT 00 UTC:
22.4 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 220424190449
2022042418 24S JASMINE 003 01 170 06 SATL 025
T000 192S 0395E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 202S 0398E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 210S 0404E 040 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 213S 0411E 035 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 211S 0420E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 39.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 39.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.2S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.0S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.3S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 39.6E.
24APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
184 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND
252100Z.//
2422042006 116S 511E 20
2422042012 120S 499E 20
2422042018 122S 489E 20
2422042100 120S 478E 20
2422042106 118S 467E 20
2422042112 120S 460E 20
2422042118 126S 452E 20
2422042200 133S 441E 25
2422042206 135S 433E 25
2422042212 138S 427E 25
2422042218 141S 423E 30
2422042300 146S 416E 30
2422042306 153S 403E 30
2422042312 160S 400E 25
2422042318 167S 397E 30
2422042400 174S 395E 35
2422042406 179S 394E 40
2422042412 186S 394E 40
2422042418 192S 395E 50
2422042418 192S 395E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 39.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 39.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.2S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.0S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.3S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 39.6E.
24APR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
184 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND
252100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241836
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/12/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8 S / 39.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/04/2022 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 25/04/2022 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 26/04/2022 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 26/04/2022 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 27/04/2022 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 27/04/2022 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 110 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2022 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 29/04/2022 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT
INTENSIFIEE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX TRES FROIDS EN IMAGERIE
INFRAROUGE (-80/-85C) ET UNE EXPANSION DU CDO. LE CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES EST DESORMAIS ENTIEREMENT A L'INTERIEUR DE LA COUVERTURE
NUAGEUSE CONVECTIVE DENSE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS-F17 1538Z MONTRE
UNE FORTE CONVECTION DANS LA PARTIE SUD ET SUD-EST, QUI S'EST
RAPPROCHEE DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME, MAIS AVEC UNE STRUCTURE ENCORE ASSEZ
ASYMETRIQUE, ILLUSTRANT LES EFFETS ENCORE PRESENTS DU CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST (ESTIME ENTRE 15 ET 20KT D'APRES LE
CIMSS). EN COHERENCE AVEC L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION
OBSERVEE, LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE SONT
EN HAUSSE, AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK MONTANT A 3.5, PERMETTANT
D'ESTIMER QUE JASMINE A ATTEINT LE NIVEAU MINIMAL DU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES A 50KT.

JASMINE SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD A SUD-EST JUSQU'A LUNDI,
GUIDE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
CANALISE ENTRE LA DORSALE A L EST DE MADAGASCAR ET UN THALWEG SUR
L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT TRES
INCERTAINE, DEPENDANT DE L'INTENSITE QU'AURA LE SYSTEME A CE MOMENT.
CERTAINES OPTIONS MAINTIENNENT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR A FORTE COMPOSANTE
OUEST, LIE AU FLUX DE MOYENNE TROPO ASSOCIE AU THALWEG GLISSANT AU
SUD DU CANAL, DIRIGEANT AINSI JASMINE EN DIRECTION DE MADAGASCAR,
TANDIS QUE D'AUTRES SCENARIOS PRIVILEGIENT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
REDESCENDANT EN BASSES COUCHES AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, CE
QUI FERAIT REMONTER LE SYSTEME VERS LE NORD EN LONGEANT LA COTE OUEST
DE MADAGASCAR. L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN, QUI PRIVILEGIAIT JUSQU'A PRESENT
UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE NORD, A MAINTENANT TENDANCE A RAPPROCHER LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE MADAGASCAR, MAIS AVEC UNE DISPERSION TRES FORTE ENTRE
RUNS ET ENTRE MODELES (GEFS FAVORISE L'OPTION DE TRAVERSEE DE
MADAGASCAR D'OUEST EN EST). LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS A
PARTIR DE MARDI OU MERCREDI EST DONC PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE ET
MERITERA D'ETRE REPRECISEE DANS LES PROCHAINES PREVISIONS. EN
PARTICULIER, ON NE PEUT PAS EXCLURE UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JASMINE BENEFICIE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A LUNDI VOIRE MARDI MATIN, MALGRE LA
PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE MODEREE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST, LIEE AU PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG PLUS AU
SUD, COMBINEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME AVANT UNE DISSIPATION PROGRESSIVE
ATTENDUE EN FIN DE SEMAINE. EN CAS D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR (A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI), L'INTENSITE DE JASMINE DEVRAIT ETRE EN COURS
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, AVEC DONC DES IMPACTS QUI DEVRAIENT RESTER
RELATIVEMENT MODESTES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
-ILES DU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE (BASSAS DA INDIA, EUROPA):
DEGRADATION ATTENDUE ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI. RAFALES DE 80 A 100 KM/H,
CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 50 A 100 MM, VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 4 METRES.
-MADAGASCAR: POSSIBLE ATTERRISSAGE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SUR LA COTE
OUEST MAIS AVEC FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING ET LA LOCALISATION,
L'INTENSITE PREVUE ETANT A PRIORI FAIBLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/12/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 39.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/25 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/04/25 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/04/26 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/04/26 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2022/04/27 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/04/27 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/28 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/29 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS IN INFRARED IMAGERY (-80/-85C) AND AN
EXPANSION OF THE CDO. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW ENTIRELY BENEATH
CDO. THE 1538Z SSMIS-F17 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION ON
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDES OF THE STORM, WHICH HAS ALSO GOT
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, BUT WITH STILL A QUITE
ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, ILLUSTRATING THE REMNANT EFFECTS OF WEST TO
NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR (ESTIMATED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KT ACCORDING TO
CIMSS). IN CONSISTENCE WITH THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN, SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP, WITH DVORAK ANALYSIS
REACHING 3.5, ALLOWING TO ESTIMATE THAT JASMINE HAS REACHED THE
MINIMUM LEVEL OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 50KT.

JASMINE FOLLOWS A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK UNTIL MONDAY, GUIDED
BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW, CHANNELED BETWEEN
THE RIDGE EAST OF MADAGASCAR AND A TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. FROM
TUESDAY, THE TRACK BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM AT THAT MOMENT. CERTAIN OPTIONS MAINTAIN A STEERING
FLOW WITH A STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT, LINKED TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BY-PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THUS DIRECTING JASMINE TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, WHILE
OTHER SCENARIOS FAVOR A STEERING FLOW SHIFTING BACK TO THE LOW LEVELS
DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT TURN NORTHWARDS
OFF THE WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE, WHICH UNTIL
NOW FAVORED A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN, IS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS A CLOSER
TO MADAGASCAR'S TRACK, BUT WITH A VERY STRONG DISPERSION BETWEEN RUNS
AND BETWEEN MODELS (GEFS FAVORS THE OPTION OF CROSSING MADAGASCAR
FROM WEST TO EAST). THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
IS THEREFORE PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN AND WILL NEED TO BE CLARIFIED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. IN PARTICULAR, LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR FROM
WEDNESDAY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JASMINE BENEFITS FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS UNTIL MONDAY OR EVEN TUESDAY MORNING, DESPITE THE
PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE SHEAR CONSTRAINT. FROM TUESDAY, THE
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH, COMBINED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID-LEVELS, SHOULD
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE GRADUAL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. IN CASE OF LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR (FROM WEDNESDAY), THE
INTENSITY OF JASMINE SHOULD BE WEAKENING, THEREFORE WITH IMPACTS
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-SOUTH MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ISLANDS (BASSAS DA INDIA, EUROPA):
DISTURBED CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
OF 80 TO 100 KM/H, RAINFALL OF 50 TO 100 MM, 4-METER HIGH WAVES.
-MADAGASCAR: POSSIBLE LANDFALL FROM WEDNESDAY ON THE WEST COAST BUT
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION. INTENSITY SHOULD BE
ON THE LOW SIDE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241812
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/04/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 39.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/25 AT 06 UTC:
20.0 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/25 AT 18 UTC:
20.9 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241253
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/12/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 39.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 65

24H: 25/04/2022 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 85

36H: 26/04/2022 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 85

48H: 26/04/2022 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95

60H: 27/04/2022 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 27/04/2022 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2022 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

120H: 29/04/2022 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE JASMINE A CONTINUE A S'ORGANISER ESSENTIELLEMENT A L'EST DU
CENTRE. MALGRE LA PRESENCE D UN CISAILLEMENT D OUEST QUI EXPOSE LE
CENTRE, LES IMAGES SATELLITES METTENT EN EVIDENCE UNE MEILLEURE
ORGANISATION EN BASSES COUCHES. DE PLUS, UNE MESURE DE VENT A 0250Z
DONNE DES VENTS MAXIMUM AUTOUR DE 35/40KT. JASMINE POURSUIT DONC SON
INTENSIFICATION AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMUM ESTIMES A 45KT.

UNE DORSALE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE SUR L EST DE MADAGASCAR
ET L APPROCHE D'UN FAIBLE THALWEG SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE ORIENTE LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR DE JASMINE VERS LE SUD. LA DORSALE PIVOTE LENTEMENT
VERS L'OUEST INCLINANT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST LUNDI. PUIS
PASSANT A L'ARRIERE DU THALWEG, JASMINE ENTAME UN VIRAGE EN SE
DIRIGEANT VERS L'EST PUIS LE NORD-EST MARDI. AVEC UNE NOUVELLE
DORSALE QUI GONFLE SUR L'AFRIQUE EN FIN DE PERIODE, LA TRAJECTOIRE
EST DAVANTAGE NORD-NORD-EST.
LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST ASSEZ FORTE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE A PARTIR
DE MARDI AVEC UN ENSEMBLE IFS QUI FAIT REMONTER LE SYSTEME DANS LE
CANAL ALORS QUE L'ENSEMBLE GFS LE DIRIGE DAVANTAGE SUR MADAGASCAR. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS PRIVILEGIE UNE TRAJECTOIRE QUI SE RAPPROCHE DU
CENTRE EUROPEEN. ELLE EST CEPENDANT PLUS A L'EST QUE CELLE DU RESEAU
PRECEDENT.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JASMINE BENEFICIE GLOBALEMENT DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A MARDI, CEPENDANT LA BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TEND A DISPARAITRE DEMAIN. L'INTENSITE DE
JASMINE COMMENCE DONC A LEGEREMENT DIMINUER DES DEMAIN. A PARTIR DE
MARDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST COMBINEE A UNE INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT LE
SYSTEME AVANT UNE DISSIPATION PROGRESSIVE ATTENDUE EN FIN DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- SELON LA PROGRESSION DU SYSTEME EN MER, LE TEMPS SUR LES ILES DU
SUD DU CANAL (BASSAS DA INDIA ET EUROPA) DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE
DEGRADER DEMAIN. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER AU PLUS PRES D'EUROPA DANS
LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
- DES RAFALES DE L'ORDRE DE 80 A 90KM/H, LOCALEMENT 100KM/H SONT
POSSIBLES DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI. DES CUMULS DE 50 A 100MM EN
12H SONT ATTENDUS.
- LES CONDITIONS DE MER SE DEGRADENT DEMAIN POUR LES ILES DU SUD DU
CANAL (BASSAS DA INDIA ET EUROPA) SUITE AU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME AU
SUD. DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 3 A 4 METRES EN MOYENNES SONT
ATTENDUES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241253
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/12/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 39.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/25 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 65

24H: 2022/04/25 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 85

36H: 2022/04/26 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 85

48H: 2022/04/26 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95

60H: 2022/04/27 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2022/04/27 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/28 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

120H: 2022/04/29 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM JASMINE CONTINUED TO BE ORGANIZED MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WESTERLY SHEAR THAT EXPOSES THE CENTER,
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
MOREOVER, A WIND MEASUREMENT AT 0250Z GIVES MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND
35/40KT. JASMINE CONTINUES ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 45KT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPOSPHERE OVER
EASTERN MADAGASCAR AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA IS DIRECTING JASMINE'S DIRECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE
IS SLOWLY TURNING WESTWARD TILTING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY. THEN PASSING BEHIND THE TROUGH, JASMINE STARTS A TURN TO THE
EAST AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THEN WITH A NEW RIDGE
SWELLING OVER AFRICA, THE TRAJECTORY IS MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS QUITE STRONG ON
THE TRAJECTORY FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS WITH AN IFS ENSEMBLE THAT MAKES
THE SYSTEM GO UP IN THE CHANNEL WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE DIRECTS IT
MORE OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CMRS TRACK FAVORS A TRACK THAT IS CLOSER TO
THE EUROPEAN CENTER. IT IS HOWEVER FURTHER EAST THAN THE LAST
PREVISION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JASMINE IS BENEFITING FROM OVERALL GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY, HOWEVER THE GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE TENDS TO DISAPPEAR TOMORROW. JASMINE'S INTENSITY STARTS TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FROM TOMORROW. FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASE OF THE
WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE A
PROGRESSIVE DISSIPATION EXPECTED AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM AT SEA, THE WEATHER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS (BASSAS DA INDIA AND EUROPA) SHOULD
START TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO EUROPA
DURING THE NIGHT OF MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
- GUSTS OF 80 TO 90KM/H, LOCALLY 100KM/H ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 12 HOURS ARE EXPECTED.
- SEA CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE
SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL (BASSAS DA INDIA AND EUROPA) FOLLOWING THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. WAVES OF 3 TO 4 METERS ON
AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241206
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/04/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 39.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 150 NM FROM THE CENTER, IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, 250 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
19.7 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/25 AT 12 UTC:
20.7 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240616
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/12/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 39.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/04/2022 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 65

24H: 25/04/2022 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 65

36H: 25/04/2022 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 65

48H: 26/04/2022 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 26/04/2022 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 27/04/2022 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2022 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 29/04/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPA TE TROPICALE JASMINE A
POURSUIVI SON DEPLACEMENT DANS LE CANAL AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE FLUCTUANTE AVEC LE LEVER DU JOUR. L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE
PERMET D'IDENTIFIER UN CENTRE SUR LA BORDURE SUD-OUEST DE LA
CONVECTION DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ENCORE CISAILLE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN
SYSTEME CISAILLE DONNE UNE INTENSITE DE 3.0- SOIT DES VENTS MAXIMUM
AUTOUR DE 40KT.

AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'APPROCHE PROGRESSIVE D'UN FAIBLE TALWEG SUR
L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET AU SUD-EST. LE MOUVEMENT
S'ORIENTERA ALORS PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES, PUIS SUD-EST LUNDI, AVEC UN RALENTISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE.
AVEC LE PIVOTEMENT DU TALWEG AU LARGE DU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE
MARDI ET LE GONFLEMENT D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE
EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, COMBINE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
CELUI-CI DEVRAIT REBROUSSER CHEMIN EN REPARTANT VERS LE NORD A PARTIR
DE MARDI. UNE TRES FORTE DISPERSION PERSISTE ENTRE LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES, LAISSANT CIRCULER LE SYSTEME PLUS OU MOINS PRES DES COTES
DE MADAGASCAR OU DU MOZAMBIQUE. LE SCENARIO RETENU PAR LE CMRS EST
PROCHE DES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES ET DETERMINISTES DU CENTRE
EUROPEEN, ET MAINTIENT LE SYSTEME ASSEZ LONGUEMENT EN MER DANS LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE JUSQU'A SA DISSIPATION. LA TRAJECTOIRE OFFICIELLE
EST CEPENDANT REVUE LEGEREMENT PLUS A L'EST QUE LA PRECEDENTE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JASMINE BENEFICIE GLOBALEMENT DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A MARDI, MALGRE LA PRESENCE D'UNE
PETITE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE. LA TEMPA TE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR DANS DE
BONNES CONDITIONS EN ALTITUDE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, ET BONNE
DIVERGENCE MARQUA E PAR UN CANAL D'EVACUATION CA TE POLAIRE). AINSI,
UNE INTENSIFICATION AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE EST POSSIBLE
EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE MAIS CE N'EST PLUS DE SCENIARIO PRIVILEGIE. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST COMBINEE A UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR
PROGRESSIVEMENT LE SYSTEME AVANT UNE DISSIPATION PROGRESSIVE ATTENDUE
EN MILIEU OU FIN DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME EN MER, PERSISTANCE DE QUELQUES
RAFALES RESIDUELLES DIMANCHE SUR LA FRANGE MARITIME DE LA PROVINCE DE
NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE). LES RAFALES LES PLUS IMPORTANTES SONT RELEGUEES
EN MER DANS UNE ZONE ASSEZ RESTREINTE AUTOUR DU SYSTEME. SELON LA
PROGRESSION DU SYSTEME EN MER, LES ILES DU SUD DU CANAL (BASSAS DA
INDIA ET EUROPA) POURRAIT SUBIR QUELQUES RAFALES D'INTENSITE MODA RA
E EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE DE L'ORDRE DE 60 A 80 KM/H.
- DIMINUTION PROGRESSIVE DES PRECIPITATIONS AVEC DE FAIBLES CUMULS DE
PLUIE A ATTENDRE PRES DU LITTORAL DES PROVINCES DE NAMPULA ET DE
ZAMBEZIE. LES CUMULS LES PLUS FORTS SE SITUENT ENTRE 150 ET 300 MM EN
24H ENTRE LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE ET DE MADAGASCAR.
- MER FORTE A LOCALEMENT TRES FORTE EN CETTE FIN DE WEEK-END AU LARGE
DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES AVEC DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 5 A 6 METRES,
S'AMORTISSANT GRADUELLEMENT A PARTIR DE DEMAIN DIMANCHE. LES
CONDITIONS DE MER SE DEGRADENT EN REVANCHE EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE POUR LES ILES DU SUD DU CANAL (BASSAS DA INDIA ET EUROPA)
SUITE AU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME AU SUD. DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 3 A
4 METRES EN MOYENNES SONT ATTENDUES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240616
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/12/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 39.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/24 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 65

24H: 2022/04/25 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 65

36H: 2022/04/25 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 65

48H: 2022/04/26 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/04/26 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/27 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/28 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/29 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM JASMINE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CHANNEL WITH A FLUCTUATING CLOUD PATTERN. CLASSIC IMAGERY
ALLOWS TO IDENTIFY A CENTER ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION
IN A STILL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN A SHEAR SYSTEM
GIVES AN INTENSITY OF 3.0- MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 40KT.

WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW IS RESUMED
IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE BY THE PROGRESSIVE APPROACH OF A WEAK
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA A RIDGE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE MOVEMENT
WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWARD ON THE NEXT HOURS, THEN SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY, WITH A TEMPORARY SLOWDOWN.
WITH THE TURNING OF THE TROUGH OFF THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ON TUESDAY AND THE SWELLING OF A NEW RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM, IT SHOULD TURN BACK AND MOVE BACK NORTHWARDS FROM TUESDAY. A
VERY STRONG DISPERSION PERSISTS BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL MODELS, LETTING
THE SYSTEM CIRCULATE MORE OR LESS NEAR THE COASTS OF MADAGASCAR OR
MOZAMBIQUE. THE SCENARIO SELECTED BY THE RSMC IS CLOSE TO THE
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST FORECASTS OF THE EUROPEAN CENTER, AND KEEPS
THE SYSTEM AT SEA FOR A LONG TIME IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS HOWEVER REVISED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JASMINE BENEFITS GENERALLY FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY, DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
SMALL SHEAR. THE STORM SHOULD STILL EVOLUATE IN GOOD UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS (WEAK SHEAR, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE MARKED BY A POLAR COAST
EVACUATION CHANNEL). THUS, AN INTENSIFICATION TO THE SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT THIS IS NO LONGER A PRIVILEGED
SCENIARIO. FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED
WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE A GRADUAL DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE
OR END OF NEXT WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- WITH THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM AT SEA, PERSISTENCE OF SOME
RESIDUAL GUSTS ON SUNDAY ON THE MARITIME BORDER OF NAMPULA PROVINCE
(MOZAMBIQUE). THE MOST IMPORTANT GUSTS ARE RAISED AT SEA IN A RATHER
RESTRICTED AREA AROUND THE SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM AT SEA, THE ISLANDS OF THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL (BASSAS DA
INDIA AND EUROPA) COULD UNDERGO SOME GUSTS OF MODERATE INTENSITY AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK OF ABOUT 60 TO 80 KM/H.
- GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAINFALL WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 150 AND 300 MM IN 24 HOURS BETWEEN THE COASTS OF
MOZAMBIQUE AND MADAGASCAR.
- SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND OFF THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE WITH WAVES OF ABOUT 5 TO 6 METERS, GRADUALLY
LOWERING FROM TOMORROW SUNDAY. THE SEA CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE SOUTH OF THE
CHANNEL (BASSAS DA INDIA AND EUROPA) FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. WAVES OF 3 TO 4 METERS ON AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240607
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/04/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 39.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 150 NM FROM THE CENTER, IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, 250 IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/24 AT 18 UTC:
18.9 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/25 AT 06 UTC:
19.9 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240050
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/12/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/04/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 40.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/04/2022 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 0

24H: 25/04/2022 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 25/04/2022 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 35

48H: 26/04/2022 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 26/04/2022 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 27/04/2022 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/04/2022 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 29/04/2022 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

DEPUIS SON RETOUR SUR LES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A MONTRA DES SIGNES
D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC DE L'ACTIVITA ELECTRIQUE MARQUEE PRES DU
CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES, ET DES SOMMETS QUI SE SONT PROGRESSIVEMENT
REFROIDIS. CE REGAIN D'ACTIVITE EST OBJECTIVE PAR L'ASCAT-C DE 1841Z
ET L'ASCAT-B DE 1934Z QUI PRA SENTENT DU COUP DE VENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE CET FIN
D'APRES-MIDI, AINSI QUE LA GMI DE 2056Z CONFIRMENT CE GAIN EN TERMES
D'ORGANISATION ET DE CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR DE BASSES COUCHES. AU VU
DE DE CES ELEMENTS L'INTENSITE EST PORTEE A 35KT AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE, ET A ETE BAPTISE JASMINE PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR A 23UTC.

LE SYSTEME VA POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST, SUIVANT LE FLUX DE NORD-EST ENGENDRA PAR LA BORDURE
OCCIDENTALE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU
SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'APPROCHE
PROGRESSIVE D'UN FAIBLE TALWEG SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE UNE DORSALE A
L'EST ET AU SUD-EST. LE MOUVEMENT S'ORIENTERA ALORS PLUS FRANCHEMENT
VERS LE SUD EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, PUIS SUD-EST LUNDI, AVEC UN
RALENTISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE.
AVEC LE PIVOTEMENT DU TALWEG AU LARGE DU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE
MARDI ET LE GONFLEMENT D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE
EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, COMBINE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
CELUI-CI DEVRAIT REBROUSSER CHEMIN EN REPARTANT VERS LE NORD A PARTIR
DE MARDI. UNE TRES FORTE DISPERSION PERSISTE ENTRE LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES, LAISSANT CIRCULER LE SYSTEME PLUS OU MOINS PRES DES COTES
DE MADAGASCAR OU DU MOZAMBIQUE. LE SCENARIO RETENU PAR LE CMRS EST
PROCHE DES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES ET DETERMINISTES DU CENTRE
EUROPEEN, ET MAINTIENT LE SYSTEME ASSEZ LONGUEMENT EN MER DANS LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE JUSQU'A SA DISSIPATION. LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE
AMERICAINE (GEFS) SE RAPPROCHE QUANT A LUI PEU A PEU DE SON HOMOLOGUE
EUROPEEN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JASMINE BENEFICIE GLOBALEMENT DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A MARDI. EN RETROUVANT LES EAUX
CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LA TEMPA TE DEVRAIT RETROUVER UN FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE COUPLE A DE BONNES CONDITIONS EN ALTITUDE (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT, ET BONNE DIVERGENCE MARQUA E PAR UN CANAL D'EVACUATION
CA TE POLAIRE). AINSI, UNE INTENSIFICATION AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE EST POSSIBLE EN JOURNA E DE DIMANCHE. UN BREF PASSAGE PAR
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL N'EST PAS TOTALEMENT EXCLU A CE STADE,
MEME SI LES MODA LES DE PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLES EUROPEEN ET AMERICAIN
NE LE PROPOSENT PLUS VRAIMENT. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST COMBINEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT LE SYSTEME AVANT UNE
DISSIPATION PROGRESSIVE ATTENDUE EN MILIEU OU FIN DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME EN MER, PERSISTANCE DE QUELQUES
RAFALES RESIDUELLES DIMANCHE SUR LA FRANGE MARITIME DE LA PROVINCE DE
NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE). LES RAFALES LES PLUS IMPORTANTES SONT RELEGUEES
EN MER DANS UNE ZONE ASSEZ RESTREINTE AUTOUR DU SYSTEME. SELON LA
PROGRESSION DU SYSTEME EN MER, LES ILES DU SUD DU CANAL (BASSAS DA
INDIA ET EUROPA) POURRAIT SUBIR QUELQUES RAFALES D'INTENSITE MODA RA
E EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE DE L'ORDRE DE 60 A 80 KM/H.
- DIMINUTION PROGRESSIVE DES PRECIPITATIONS AVEC DE FAIBLES CUMULS DE
PLUIE A ATTENDRE PRES DU LITTORAL DES PROVINCES DE NAMPULA ET DE
ZAMBEZIE. LES CUMULS LES PLUS FORTS SE SITUENT ENTRE 150 ET 300 MM EN
24H ENTRE LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE ET DE MADAGASCAR.
- MER FORTE A LOCALEMENT TRES FORTE EN CETTE FIN DE WEEK-END AU LARGE
DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES AVEC DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 5 A 6 METRES,
S'AMORTISSANT GRADUELLEMENT A PARTIR DE DEMAIN DIMANCHE. LES
CONDITIONS DE MER SE DEGRADENT EN REVANCHE EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE POUR LES ILES DU SUD DU CANAL (BASSAS DA INDIA ET
EUROPA)SUITE AU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME AU SUD. DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE
DE 3 A 4 METRES EN MOYENNES SONT ATTENDUES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)

2.A POSITION 2022/04/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 40.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/24 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2022/04/25 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/04/25 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 35

48H: 2022/04/26 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2022/04/26 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/27 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/28 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/29 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

SINCE ITS RETURN TO THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE
CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH
MARKED ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLC, AND TOPS CLOUD
HAVE GRADUALLY COOLED. THIS RENEWED ACTIVITY IS SEEN BY THE 1841Z
ASCAT-C AND THE 1934Z ASCAT-B WHICH SHOW GALE FORCE WIND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES OF
THIS LATE AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS THE 2056Z GMI CONFIRM THIS GAIN IN
TERMS OF ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CORE. GIVEN
TO THESE ELEMENTS, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35KT AT THE STAGE OF
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM, AND HAS BEEN NAMED JASMINE BY THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MADAGASCAR AT 23UTC.

THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, FOLLOWING THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. WITH THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW IS RESUMED IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE BY THE PROGRESSIVE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN AFRICA A RIDGE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE MOVEMENT WILL THEN
TURN MORE SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY, WITH A
TEMPORARY SLOWDOWN.
WITH THE TURNING OF THE TROUGH OFF THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ON TUESDAY AND THE SWELLING OF A NEW RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM, IT SHOULD TURN BACK AND MOVE BACK NORTHWARDS FROM TUESDAY. A
VERY STRONG DISPERSION PERSISTS BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL MODELS, LETTING
THE SYSTEM CIRCULATE MORE OR LESS NEAR THE COASTS OF MADAGASCAR OR
MOZAMBIQUE. THE SCENARIO SELECTED BY THE RSMC IS CLOSE TO THE
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST FORECASTS OF THE EUROPEAN CENTER, AND KEEPS
THE SYSTEM AT SEA FOR A LONG TIME IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES. THE AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST (GEFS) IS GRADUALLY
APPROACHING ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JASMINE IS EXPERIENCING OVERALL GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY. BY FINDING THE WARM WATERS OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE STORM SHOULD FIND A STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL COUPLED WITH GOOD CONDITIONS ALOFT (LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR,
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT CHARACTERIZED BY A POLAR EVACUATION
CHANNEL). THUS, AN INTENSIFICATION TO THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY. A SHORT PASSAGE THROUGH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IS NOT TOTALLY EXCLUDED AT THIS POINT, EVEN IF THE
FORECAST MODELS OF EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLES DO NOT REALLY
PROPOSE IT ANYMORE. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE INCREASE IN WESTERLY
VWS COMBINED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE
DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- WITH THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM AT SEA, PERSISTENCE OF SOME
RESIDUAL GUSTS ON SUNDAY ON THE MARITIME BORDER OF NAMPULA PROVINCE
(MOZAMBIQUE). THE MOST IMPORTANT GUSTS ARE RAISED AT SEA IN A RATHER
RESTRICTED AREA AROUND THE SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM AT SEA, THE ISLANDS OF THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL (BASSAS DA
INDIA AND EUROPA) COULD UNDERGO SOME GUSTS OF MODERATE INTENSITY AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK OF ABOUT 60 TO 80 KM/H.
- GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAINFALL WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 150 AND 300 MM IN 24 HOURS BETWEEN THE COASTS OF
MOZAMBIQUE AND MADAGASCAR.
- SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND OFF THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE WITH WAVES OF ABOUT 5 TO 6 METERS, GRADUALLY
LOWERING FROM TOMORROW SUNDAY. THE SEA CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE SOUTH OF THE
CHANNEL (BASSAS DA INDIA AND EUROPA) FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. WAVES OF 3 TO 4 METERS ON AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED.=

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Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240016
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/04/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 40.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 240 NM FROM THE CENTER, IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/04/24 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
19.2 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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