Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NORA-21 in Mexico from 25 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC to 30 Aug 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21

in Mexico

28 Aug 2021 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	108 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (28 Aug 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	108 km/h	0.5 m	177 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	86 km/h	0.5 m	838 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

86 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	83,860

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	25 Aug 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	26 Aug 2021 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	26 Aug 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	27 Aug 2021 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	27 Aug 2021 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	28 Aug 2021 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	28 Aug 2021 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Mexico	818,926
100-250 mm	Mexico	3,862,834
50-100 mm	Mexico	9,308,635

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 00:00	175	70 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
2	25 Aug 2021 12:00	215	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	26 Aug 2021 00:00	597	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	26 Aug 2021 12:00	664	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	27 Aug 2021 00:00	218	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
6	27 Aug 2021 12:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	28 Aug 2021 00:00	215	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
8	28 Aug 2021 12:00	583	4.7 million				-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in La Manzanilla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2021 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Aug 2021 19:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2021 03:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2021 03:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2021 05:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2021 20:15	Monteon	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2021 20:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2021 14:45	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 21:15	Ipala	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 21:15	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 18:45	Chamela	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 03:30	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 20:15	Chola	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 08:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 08:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 07:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 00:15	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 20:45	Corrales	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:15	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 15:15	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 18:45	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 03:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 15:15	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 20:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 12:30	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:15	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 15:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 22:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 22:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 15:45	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 01:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 04:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 03:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 00:45	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 15:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 08:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 14:15	Santiago	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 14:15	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 12:30	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:15	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 01:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 21:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 08:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 01:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 07:00	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 14:45	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 07:00	Aguaje	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 02:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 14:45	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 04:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 02:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 20:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 15:45	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 19:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:15	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:30	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 16:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 03:00	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:45	Coronado	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:45	Imperial Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:45	Boal	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 02:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 00:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 21:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 07:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:15	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 10:30	Azure Vista	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 10:30	Ocean Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 10:30	Fort Rosecrans	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 10:30	Roseville	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 10:30	Loma Portal	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 10:30	San Diego	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:15	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 06:15	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 12:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 19:30	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 02:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 21:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 23:30	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 01:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 23:30	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 09:30	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 06:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:30	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 23:45	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 13:00	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 17:00	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 17:00	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 16:30	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 16:30	Ensenada	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 19:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 06:15	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 17:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 09:45	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 13:15	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 09:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 10:15	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 02:45	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:30	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:30	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 23:15	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:45	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 21:30	Acapulco	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 21:30	El Marques	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 12:30	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 06:15	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 02:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 16:15	Rosarito	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 22:45	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 15:15	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 21:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:30	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 09:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:00	Mission Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:00	Campland on the Bay Trailer Park	United States	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.