Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NORA-21 in Mexico from 25 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC to 30 Aug 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21

in Mexico

29 Aug 2021 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (01 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	61 km/h	0.3 m	189 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	86 km/h	0.5 m	838 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

86 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	25 Aug 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	26 Aug 2021 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	26 Aug 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	27 Aug 2021 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	27 Aug 2021 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	28 Aug 2021 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	28 Aug 2021 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
9	29 Aug 2021 00:00	76	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
10	29 Aug 2021 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	Mexico	18,761
250-500 mm	Mexico	726,973
100-250 mm	Mexico	1,685,400
50-100 mm	Mexico	12,306,879

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 00:00	175	70 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
2	25 Aug 2021 12:00	215	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	26 Aug 2021 00:00	597	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	26 Aug 2021 12:00	664	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	27 Aug 2021 00:00	218	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
6	27 Aug 2021 12:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	28 Aug 2021 00:00	215	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
8	28 Aug 2021 12:00	177	570 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
9	29 Aug 2021 00:00	299	160 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
10	29 Aug 2021 12:00	730	2.4 million					-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Sep 2021 12:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2021 15:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 20:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 22:15	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2021 12:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 04:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 04:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 20:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 00:30	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 15:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 03:45	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 15:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 20:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2021 11:45	La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 17:15	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2021 11:45	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 21:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 23:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 23:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 15:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 15:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 01:00	La Playa	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 00:45	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 14:30	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 14:30	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 20:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 15:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 15:30	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 15:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 07:00	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 12:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 12:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 07:00	Aguaje	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 17:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 15:15	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 15:15	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 01:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 15:30	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 15:45	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 14:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 11:45	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 15:15	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 15:15	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:45	Coronado	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:45	Imperial Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:45	Boal	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 14:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:00	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 16:30	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 17:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 17:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 15:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 20:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 02:30	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:15	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 17:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 17:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:30	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2021 10:15	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 04:45	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 14:45	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 15:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:15	Azure Vista	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:15	Ocean Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:15	Fort Rosecrans	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:15	Roseville	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:15	Loma Portal	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:15	San Diego	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 03:45	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 15:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:30	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:30	Ensenada	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:45	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 03:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 16:15	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 23:30	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 15:30	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:30	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 14:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 23:30	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 03:45	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 04:15	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 22:45	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 17:15	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 17:15	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:30	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 15:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 04:15	El Barril	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:15	Rosarito	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 03:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 03:00	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.