Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALICIA-20
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALICIA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (19 Nov 02:30 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.1 m 312 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 0.1 m 391 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 Nov 2020 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Nov 2020 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Nov 2020 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Nov 2020 06:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 14 Nov 2020 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 14 Nov 2020 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 15 Nov 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Nov 2020 06:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 15 Nov 2020 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 15 Nov 2020 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 16 Nov 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 16 Nov 2020 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 16 Nov 2020 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 16 Nov 2020 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 17 Nov 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 17 Nov 2020 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 17 Nov 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 17 Nov 2020 18:00 76 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

391 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 17 Nov 2020 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Nov 2020 18:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 14 Nov 2020 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Nov 2020 06:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 14 Nov 2020 12:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 14 Nov 2020 18:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 15 Nov 2020 00:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 15 Nov 2020 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 15 Nov 2020 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 15 Nov 2020 18:00 212 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 16 Nov 2020 00:00 153 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 16 Nov 2020 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 16 Nov 2020 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 16 Nov 2020 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 17 Nov 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 17 Nov 2020 06:00 34 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 17 Nov 2020 12:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 17 Nov 2020 18:00 312 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in La Ferme, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 19 Nov 2020 02:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Nov 2020 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Nov 2020 02:30 La Ferme Mauritius  0.1
19 Nov 2020 02:30 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.1
15 Nov 2020 10:30 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.1
15 Nov 2020 10:30 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.1

Calculation folder at this link