Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALICIA-20
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALICIA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (19 Nov 02:30 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 108 km/h 0.1 m 184 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 0.1 m 391 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Nov 2020 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Nov 2020 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Nov 2020 06:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 14 Nov 2020 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 14 Nov 2020 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 15 Nov 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Nov 2020 06:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 15 Nov 2020 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 15 Nov 2020 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 16 Nov 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 16 Nov 2020 06:00 108 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2020 06:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Nov 2020 18:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 14 Nov 2020 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Nov 2020 06:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 14 Nov 2020 12:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 14 Nov 2020 18:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 15 Nov 2020 00:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 15 Nov 2020 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 15 Nov 2020 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 15 Nov 2020 18:00 212 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 16 Nov 2020 00:00 153 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 16 Nov 2020 06:00 258 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in La Ferme, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 19 Nov 2020 02:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2020 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Nov 2020 02:30 La Ferme Mauritius  0.1
19 Nov 2020 02:30 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.1
17 Nov 2020 08:15 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.1
17 Nov 2020 08:15 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.1

Calculation folder at this link