Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALICIA-20
Off-shore

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2020-11-17 06:25


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170617
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/1/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 71.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/11/2020 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
24H: 18/11/2020 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 18/11/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 19/11/2020 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 19/11/2020 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 20/11/2020 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0- CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'AIR SEC A RECOUVERT TOUT LE
SYSTEME ET AUCUNE POUSSEE DE CONVECTION NE S'EST DECLENCHEE AU SEIN
DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0314Z A MONTRE DES
VENTS MAXIMAUX DE 30KT ET AINSI L'ABSENCE DE COUP DE VENT.
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DU CMRS EST DONC BASEE SUR CES DONNEES
D'OBSERVATION PLUTOT QUE SUR L'ANALYSE DVORAK QUI SURESTIME
L'INTENSITE DANS CE CAS D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE.

ALICIA A FORTEMENT RALENTI AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, ALORS QUE
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES.
AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DESCENDRE ENCORE UN PEU EN DIRECTION
DU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE OUEST DE LA DORSALE. CEPENDANT, DES DEMAIN,
UNE DORSALE ANTICYCLONIQUE DE BASSE TROPO SE DEVELOPPE AU SUD ET
BLOQUE SON DEPLACEMENT. AINSI, ALICIA DEVRAIT DERIVER VERS L'OUEST
DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS AVANT LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DE SURFACE JEUDI.
LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST ASSEZ IMPORTANTE MAIS TOUS PARTAGENT
CETTE PHILOSOPHIE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS
IFS/GFS.

ALICIA CONTINUE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. IL N'Y A PLUS DE
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DANS L'OCEAN. LE CISAILLEMENT EST EN BAISSE
AUJOURD'HUI MAIS REAUGMENTE DES MERCREDI SOIR. AUCUNE
REINTENSIFICATION N'EST DONC ENVISAGEE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER
A LENTEMENT SE COMBLER.

DERNIER BULLETIN DE SUIVI SUR CE SYSTEME, SAUF REINTENSIFICATION.=

>

2020-11-17 06:25


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170617
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/1/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 71.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2020/11/18 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/11/19 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/11/19 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/11/20 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0- CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, DRY AIR COVERED THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND NO
CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 0314Z ASCAT
SWATH SHOWED MAX WINDS OF 30 KT AND NO GALE FORCE WINDS. THE RSMC
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THUS BASED ON THIS SCATT OBSERVATION DATA
RATHER THAN THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, WHICH OVERESTIMATES THE INTENSITY IN
THIS RAPID WEAKENING CASE.

ALICIA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN OVER THE LAST HOURS, AS THE
STEERING FLOW IS COMING DOWN IN THE LOW-LEVELS. TODAY, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD STILL TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW, A HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
BLOCK ITS DESCENT. THUS, THE REMAININGS OF ALICIA ARE EXPECTED TO
DRIFT WESTWARD AT FIRST, BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MODEL DISPERSION IS QUITE HIGH BUT ALL SHARE THE SAME
PHILOSOPHY. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON AN IFS/GFS CONSENSUS.

ALICIA CONTINUES ON ITS RAPID WEAKENING PHASE. THERE IS NO MORE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY BUT IS INCREASING
AGAIN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO REINTENSIFICATION IS AWAITED,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY FILLING UP.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT
REINTENSIFICATION.=

>

2020-11-17 00:25


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170015
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/1/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 71.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/11/2020 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 18/11/2020 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 18/11/2020 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 19/11/2020 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 19/11/2020 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5- CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE CISAILLEE DU SYSTEME
EST CONFIRMEE EGALEMENT SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES. EN
ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES (SATCON/ADT)
L'INTENSITE EST RAMENEE A 45KT.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE GUIDEE PAR L'EFFACEMENT VERS L'EST
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI INDUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE PUIS
PLUS ZONALE EN MARGE DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME
AFFAIBLI. LA PROBABILITE D'UN EFFET FUJIWARA AVEC LA DEPRESSION 02
APPARAIT ASSEZ FAIBLE ETANT DONNE LA PETITE TAILLE DE CETTE DERNIERE.
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE NEANMOINS GRANDE SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE MEME SI
MAINTENANT L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES, PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEENE
AINSI LES DETERMINISTES PROPOSENT GLOBALEMENT LA MEME PHILOSOPHIE DE
TRAJECTOIRE.

ALICIA A ENTAME UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE AVEC L'ARRIVEE
D'AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. LA
DISPARITION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S DEVRAIT
FINIR D'AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME ET EMPECHER TOUTE NOUVELLE
INTENSIFICATION TROPICALE.=

>

2020-11-17 00:25


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170015
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/1/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 71.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/17 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/18 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/11/18 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/11/19 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/11/19 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS,THE SHEAR PATTERN OF THE LOW IS ALLSO
CONFIRMED BY LATEST SATELITE IMAGERY. IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS (SATCON/ADT), INTENSITY WAS THUS DOWNGRADED TO 45
KT.

THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH INDUCES A POLEWARDS TRACK. IT THEN BECOME
MORE ZONAL THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE, WHEN
THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAK. THE PROBABILITY OF A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02 SEEMS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE SHORT SIZE OF 02.
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER STRONG EVEN IF NOW ALL THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCES
AND FORECASTS AS WELL AS THE DETERMINISTS PROPOSE GLOBALLY THE SAME
PHILOSOPHY OF TRACK.

ALICIA HAS STARTED ITS RAPID WEAKENING PHASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF
DRY AIR ABOVE THE INNER CORE IN RELATION WITH SHEAR. THE DISAPPEARING
OF THE SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD END ANY POSSIBILITY FOR
RENEWED TROPICAL DEEPENING AND FILL UP THE SYSTEM.=

>

2020-11-17 00:09


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 162356
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/11/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/11/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 71.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/17 AT 12 UTC:
18.4 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/18 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-16 19:06


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161746
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/1/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 71.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/11/2020 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 17/11/2020 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 18/11/2020 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 18/11/2020 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 19/11/2020 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE CISAILLEE DU SYSTEME
EST CONFIRMEE EGALEMENT SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES. EN
ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES (SATCON/ADT)
L'INTENSITE EST RAMENEE A 55KT. LA PRESSION CENTRALE ESTIMEE A PU
ETRE AJUSTE AVEC LE PASSAGE A UN PEU PLUS DE 20MN DU CENTRE DE LA
BOUEE 5601578 QUI A MESURE SON MINIMUM DE PRESSION DE 987HPA A 13UTC.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE GUIDEE PAR L'EFFACEMENT VERS L'EST
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI INDUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE PUIS
PLUS ZONALE EN MARGE DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME
AFFAIBLI. LA PROBABILITE D'UN EFFET FUJIWARA AVEC LA DEPRESSION 02
APPARAIT ASSEZ FAIBLE ETANT DONNE LA PETITE TAILLE DE CETTE DERNIERE.
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE NEANMOINS GRANDE SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE. UN GRAND
NOMBRE DE MEMBRE DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEENE AINSI QUE
CERTAINES GUIDANCES DETERMINISTES PROPOSENT ENCORE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD-EST.

ALICIA A ENTAME UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE AVEC L'ARRIVEE
D'AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. LA
DISPARITION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S DEVRAIT
FINIR D'AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME ET EMPECHER TOUTE NOUVELLE
INTENSIFICATION TROPICALE.=

>

2020-11-16 19:06


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161746
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 71.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/18 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/11/19 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS,THE SHEAR PATTERN OF THE LOW IS ALLSO
CONFIRMED BY LATEST SATELITE IMAGERY. IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS (SATCON/ADT), INTENSITY WAS THUS DOWNGRADED TO 55
KT. MINIMAL ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ADJUSTED THANKS TO THE
BUOY 5601578 CURRENTLY MEASURING ITS MINIMUM OF PRESSURE AROUND
987HPA AT NEARLY 20NM FROM THE CENTER CLOSE AT 13UTC.

THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH INDUCES A POLEWARDS TRACK. IT THEN BECOME
MORE ZONAL THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE, WHEN
THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAK. THE PROBABILITY OF A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02 SEEMS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE SHORT SIZE OF 02.
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER STRONG NEVERTHELESS WITH MANY EPS MEMBERS OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING YET A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.

ALICIA HAS STARTED ITS RAPID WEAKENING PHASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF
DRY AIR ABOVE THE INNER CORE IN RELATION WITH SHEAR. THE DISAPPEARING
OF THE SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD END ANY POSSIBILITY FOR
RENEWED TROPICAL DEEPENING AND FILL UP THE SYSTEM.=

>

2020-11-16 19:06


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161745
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/11/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 71.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/17 AT 06 UTC:
17.9 S / 71.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/17 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-16 13:39


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161322
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/1/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 72.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/11/2020 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 17/11/2020 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 18/11/2020 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 18/11/2020 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 19/11/2020 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ALICIA
A PEU EVOLUE. LE POINT CHAUD ENCORE VISIBLE A 06Z EN IMAGERIE
CLASSIQUE A TOTALEMENT DISPARU. QUELQUES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES
PERSISTENT PROCHE DU CENTRE. LA STRUCTURE CISAILLEE DU SYSTEME EST
CONFIRMEE PAR LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES COMME L'AMSR2 DE 0831Z OU LA
SSMIS DE 1105Z. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES
(SATCON/ADT) L'INTENSITE EST RAMENEE A 60KT. LA PRESSION CENTRALE
ESTIMEE A PU ETRE AJUSTE AVEC LE PASSAGE A UN PEU PLUS DE 20MN DU
CENTRE DE LA BOUEE 5601578 QUI MESURE ACTUELLEMENT UNE PRESSION
MINIMALE AUTOUR DE 990HPA EN BORDURE INTERNE DU MUR DE L'OEIL.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE GUIDEE PAR L'EFFACEMENT VERS L'EST
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI INDUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE PUIS
PLUS ZONALE EN MARGE DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME
AFFAIBLI. LA PROBABILITE D'UN EFFET FUJIWARA AVEC LA DEPRESSION 02
APPARAIT ASSEZ FAIBLE ETANT DONNE LA PETITE TAILLE DE CETTE DERNIERE.
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE NEANMOINS GRANDE SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE. UN GRAND
NOMBRE DE MEMBRE DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEENE AINSI QUE
CERTAINES GUIDANCES DETERMINISTES PROPOSENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST.

ALICIA A ENTAME UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE AVEC L'ARRIVEE
D'AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. LA
DISPARITION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S DEVRAIT
FINIR D'AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME ET EMPECHER TOUTE NOUVELLE
INTENSIFICATION TROPICALE.=

>

2020-11-16 13:39


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161322
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 72.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/17 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/17 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/18 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/11/18 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/11/19 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, ALICIA CLOUD PATTERN BARELY EVOLVED. THE
WARM SPOT STILL DISCERNIBLE AT 06Z DISAPPEARED RAPIDLY. SOME
CONVECTIVE BURSTS STILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER. THE SHEAR PATTERN OF
THE LOW IS CONFIRMED BY LATEST MICROWAVES SUCH AS 0831Z AMSR2 AND
1105Z. IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS (SATCON/ADT),
INTENSITY WAS THUS DOWNGRADED TO 60KT. MINIMAL ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS ADJUSTED THANKS TO THE BUOY 5601578 CURRENTLY MEASURING
A PRESSURE AROUND 990HPA AT NEARLY 20NM FROM THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE
INNER BORDER OF THE EYEWALL.

THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH INDUCES A POLEWARDS TRACK. IT THEN BECOME
MORE ZONAL THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE, WHEN
THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAK. THE PROBABILITY OF A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02 SEEMS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE SHORT SIZE OF 02.
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER STRONG NEVERTHELESS WITH MANY EPS MEMBERS OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.

ALICIA HAS STARTED ITS RAPID WEAKENING PHASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF
DRY AIR ABOVE THE INNER CORE IN RELATION WITH SHEAR. THE DISAPPEARING
OF THE SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD END ANY POSSIBILITY FOR
RENEWED TROPICAL DEEPENING AND FILL UP THE SYSTEM.=

>

2020-11-16 12:24


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161223
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/11/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 72.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/17 AT 00 UTC:
17.2 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/17 AT 12 UTC:
18.6 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-16 07:22


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160654
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/1/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 72.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/11/2020 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 17/11/2020 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 17/11/2020 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
48H: 18/11/2020 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 18/11/2020 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 19/11/2020 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ALICIA
A CONSIDERABLEMENT EVOLUE. UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL EST RESTEE PRESENTE
PEU APRES 00Z AVEC UNE ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK MAXIMALE AUTOUR DE
5.5. PUIS L'ASPECT S'EST NETTEMENT DEGRADEE AVEC LA DISPARATION DE LA
STRUCTURE EN OEIL. CES CHANGEMENTS SONT LIES AUX EFFETS NEFASTES DU
CISAILLEMENT ASSOCIEE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR DU
SYSTEME. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT CE DIAGNOSTIC,
AVEC UNE STRUCTURE PRESENTANT TOUJOURS UN TILT CONSEQUENT DE PRES DE
25 MN SUR LA PASSE GMI DE 0340Z ENTRE L'OEIL EN 89GHZ ET CELUI EN
37GHZ. L'INTENSITE FIXEE A 06Z REFLETE PLUS L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE DU
SYSTEME SUR LES DERNIERES 06H QUE CELLE DE 06Z QUI EST SANS DOUTE
PLUS FAIBLE.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE GUIDEE PAR L'EFFACEMENT VERS L'EST
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI INDUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE PUIS
PLUS ZONALE EN MARGE DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME
AFFAIBLI. LA PROBABILITE D'UN EFFET FUJIWARA AVEC LA DEPRESSION 02
APPARAIT ASSEZ FAIBLE ETANT DONNE LA PETITE TAILLE DE CETTE DERNIERE.

LA PUISSANTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE A PERMIS A ALICIA DE POURSUIVRE
UNE ULTIME INTENSIFICATION. MAINTENANT LE SYSTEME EN VOIE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR DU
SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. LA DISPARITION D'UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S DEVRAIT FINIR D'AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME ET EMPECHER TOUTE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION TROPICALE.=

>

2020-11-16 07:22


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/1/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 72.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/16 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/17 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/11/18 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/11/19 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=4.5+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, ALICIA CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVED A LOT. AN EYE
PATTERN WAS PRESENT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH A MAXIMUM SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS AROUND 5.5. THEN THE APPEARANCE OF ALICIA SEVERELY
DECAYED WITH NO MORE EYE IN INFRARED. THIS CHANGE ARE RELATED TO THE
DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF THE STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS WITHIN THE INNER CORE. LAST MICROWAVE CONFIRM THIS
DIAGNOSTIC SHOWING A STRONG TILT BETWEEN THE EYES IN 89GHZ AND 37GHZ
: NEAR 25 NM IN 0340Z GMI SWATH. CURRENT INTENSITY REFLECTS MORE THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS RATHER THAN THE 06Z ONE
WHICH SHOULD BE WEAKER.

THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH INDUCES A POLEWARDS TRACK. IT THEN BECOME
MORE ZONAL THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE, WHEN
THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAK. THE PROBABILITY OF A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02 SEEMS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE SHORT SIZE OF 02.

THE POWERFUL ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE ALLOWED ALICIA TO MAKE A FINAL
DEEPENING. NOW THE LOW IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE
THE INNER CORE IN RELATION WITH SHEAR. THE DISAPPEARING OF THE
SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD END ANY POSSIBILITY FOR RENEWED
TROPICAL DEEPENING.=

>

2020-11-16 06:29


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160628
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/11/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (ALICIA) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 72.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/16 AT 18 UTC:
16.8 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/17 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-16 01:20


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160100
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/1/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.3 S / 72.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 160 SO: 140 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/11/2020 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 17/11/2020 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 17/11/2020 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 18/11/2020 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 18/11/2020 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 19/11/2020 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

DE LA CONVECTION TRES INTENSE S'EST DEVELOPPE AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE D'ALICIA ACCOMPAGNES DE
SOMMETS TRES FROIDS EN IR (-90C). L'AMSR2 DE 2017Z REVELE QUE LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE S'EST AMELIOREE AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL
CONSOLIDEE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET MOINS TILTEE EN 89 GHZ. PEU DE
TEMPS AVANT 00Z, CET OEIL EST APPARU EN IR AVEC QUELQUES DT BRUT A
5.5 JUSTE APRES 00Z. L'ADT QUI A PRIS EN COMPTE LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL
EN MICRO-ONDES EST MONTE A UNE ESTIMATION DE 65 KT (VENTS 10 MIN).
PLUS TOT HIER SOIR, UNE PASS SMAP ESTIMAIT 64 KT EN BORD DE FAUCHEE.
ALICIA EST DONC MAINTENANT ESTIME AVOIR ATTEINT LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE GUIDEE PAR L'EFFACEMENT VERS L'EST
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI INDUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE. LES
DERNIERS MODELES MONTRENT MOINS D'ACCORD SUR LA COURTE ECHEANCE AVEC
IFS QUI S'EST SENSIBLEMENT DECALE VERS L'OUEST SUGGERANT UN POSSIBLE
EFFET FUJIWHARA AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H AVEC LA CIRCULATION DE LA
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02.CETTE POSSIBILITE A ETE PARTIELLEMENT INTEGRE
DANS LA NOUVELLE PREVISION DU CMRS.

LA PUISSANTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE A PERMIS A ALICIA DE POURSUIVRE
UNE ULTIME INTENSIFICATION. CELLE-CI POURRAIT ENCORE SE MAINTENIR
QUELQUES HEURES CE MATIN AVANT QUE LE SYSTEME NE NAVIGUE SUR DES EAUX
TROP FROIDES. EN COURS DE JOURNEE UNE TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEFINITIF EST DONC ATTENDUE AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT
AU SUD DE 17S, UN CISAILLEMENT PERSISTANT ET DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.=

>

2020-11-16 01:20


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160100
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/1/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 72.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 160 SW: 140 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/16 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/17 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/17 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/11/18 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/11/18 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/11/19 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

VERY INTENSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS NEAR
THE CENTER OF ALICIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS ON IR
IMAGERY (-90C). THE AMSR2 OF 2017Z REVEALS THAT THE INTERNAL
STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED WITH A CONSOLIDATED AND LESS TILTED EYE
CONFIGURATION IN THE 89 GHZ CHANNEL. SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z, THIS EYE
APPEARED IN IR WITH SOME RAW T-NUM AT 5.5 JUST AFTER OOZ. THE ADT
THAT TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE MICROWAVE EYE STRUCTURE ROSE TO AN
ESTIMATE OF 65 KT (WINDS 10 MIN). EARLIER LAST NIGHT, A SMAP PASS
ESTIMATED 64 KT AT THE SWATH'S EDGE. ALICIA IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED TO
HAVE REACHED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S STAGE.

THE TRACK PREDICTION REMAINS GUIDED BY THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH INDUCES A POLEWARDS TRACK. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW LESS AGREEMENT ON THE SHORT TIME FRAME WITH IFS WHICH HAS
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02.
THIS POSSIBILITY HAS BEEN PARTIALLY INTEGRATED IN THE NEW CMRS
FORECAST.

THE POWERFUL ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE ALLOWED ALICIA TO CONTINUE A FINAL
INTENSIFICATION. THIS ONE COULD STILL BE MAINTAINED A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM NAVIGATES ON TOO COLD WATERS. LATER TODAY
A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND IS THUS EXPECTED WITH AN INSUFFICIENT
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 17S, PERSISTENT SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS.=

>

2020-11-16 00:30


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160029
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/11/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (ALICIA) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 72.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/16 AT 12 UTC:
16.2 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/17 AT 00 UTC:
16.7 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-15 19:02


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151840
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/1/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1 S / 73.6 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 200 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/11/2020 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/11/2020 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 17/11/2020 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 17/11/2020 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 18/11/2020 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 18/11/2020 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

LA CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE S'EST MAINTENUE AU
COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC GLOBALEMENT PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR
LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. L'INTENSITE
EST DONC MAINTENUE A 55 KT. LE FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-EST
(ANALYSE A 20-25 KT A 15Z PAR LE CIMSS) IMPACTE LA STRUCTURE
VERTICALE DU SYSTEME QUI MONTRE UN DECALAGE DE 25 A 30 MN ENTRE LES
CIRCULATIONS DE BASSES ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE GUIDEE PAR L'EFFACEMENT VERS L'EST
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI INDUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES RESTENT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE
GLOBALE MALGRE QUELQUES DIFFERENCES SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET
LA PREVISION ACTUELLE RESTE TRES PROCHE DU CONSENSUS.

L'IMPACT ACTUEL DU CISAILLEMENT REDUIT LES POSSIBILITES
D'INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME ET IL APPARAIT MAINTENANT PEU
PROBABLE QU'ALICIA DEVIENNE UN CYCLONE TROPICAL. ON NE PEUT TOUTEFOIS
PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLURE CETTE POSSIBILITE PUIS QUE LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE RESTE TRES BONNE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. A PARTIR DE
LUNDI, LES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT COMMENCER A SE DETERIORER NETTEMENT
AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S ET UN
CISAILLEMENT EN HAUSSE, GRADUELLEMENT ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR
SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.=

>

2020-11-15 19:02


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 73.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 200 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/16 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/16 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/17 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/11/18 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
WITH OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT. THE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (ANALYZED AT 20-25 KT AT 15Z BY THE
CIMSS) IMPACTS THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOWS A 25
TO 30 MN TILT BETWEEN LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERE CIRCULATIONS ON
MICROWAVE IMAGERY.

THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS GUIDED BY THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT INDUCE A POLEWARDS TRACK. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL SCENARIO DESPITE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ON FORWARD MOTION AND THE CURRENT PREDICTION REMAINS VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.

THE CURRENT SHEAR REDUCES THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT TERM AND IT NOW APPEARS ONLY VERY LOW PROBABILITIES THAT ALICIA
WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, THIS POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT SINCE THE UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE REMAINS VERY
GOOD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FROM MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD
START TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AN INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 17S AND AN INCREASING SHEAR, GRADUALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.=

>

2020-11-15 18:29


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151826
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/11/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 73.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.0 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/16 AT 18 UTC:
16.9 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-15 12:24


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151211
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/1/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.7 S / 73.6 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/11/2020 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 16/11/2020 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 17/11/2020 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 17/11/2020 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 18/11/2020 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 18/11/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

DEPUIS PRES DE 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE ALICIA EST EN
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE (CDO) PRESENTANT UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION
PAR RAPPORT AU PRECEDENT BULLETIN. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES
MICRO-ONDES RECENTES, LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE N'EST PAS EVIDENTE ET
EN SUIVANT L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE, NOUS
POUVONS ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 55KT.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE N'EVOLUE GUERE : ALICIA SE DEPLACE VERS
LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD AVEC L'EFFACEMENT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES RESTENT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALE MALGRE QUELQUES DIFFERENCES SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LES MODELES CONVERGENT UN PEU PLUS
SUR L'OPTION D'UNE REPRISE GRADUELLE DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZE, LAISSANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN FIN DE VIE.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES COMMENCENT A ETRE UN PEU MOINS
FAVORABLES MAIS ALICIA BENEFICIE ENCORE PENDANT 12HEURES D'UNE PLAGE
D'INTENSIFICATION QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICALE.
SOUS CES CONDITIONS, ALICIA GENERE UN FLUX D'ALTITUDE TRES MARQUE QUI
INDUIT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE VENT NEFASTE A LA CYCLOGENESE DU
DEUXIEME SYSTEME LOCALISE AU NORD-OUEST D'ALICIA. A PARTIR DE LUNDI,
LES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT COMMENCER A SE DETERIORER NETTEMENT AVEC UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S ET UN CISAILLEMENT EN
HAUSSE, GRADUELLEMENT ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. CES CONDITIONS ANNONCENT UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE
L'INTENSITE DE ALICIA QUI A ECHEANCE DE 78H NE PRESENTERA PLUS QU'UNE
CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE.=

>

2020-11-15 12:24


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151211
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 73.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/16 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/11/16 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/17 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/11/17 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/11/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/11/18 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

FOR ALMOST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALICIA IS A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) PATTERN SHOWING A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS NOT OBVIOUS AND BY FOLLOWING THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS OF THE CLOUD PATTERN, WE CAN ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF
55KT.

THE TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT EVOLVE MUCH: ALICIA MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTH WITH THE EASTWARD WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL TRACK
DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT. FROM TUESDAY
ON, THE MODELS AGREE A LITTLE MORE ON THE OPTION OF THE CAPTURE OF
THE REMNANT LOW BY THE TRADE WINDS, LEAVING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY
WEDNESDAY.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE BUT ALICIA IS STILL BENEFITING FOR 12 HOURS FROM A RANGE OF
INTENSIFICATION THAT SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, ALICIA GENERATES A VERY MARKED HIGH
ALTITUDE FLOW WHICH INDUCES A STRONG NEFAST WIND SHEAR TO THE
CYCLOGENESIS OF A SECOND SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH-WEST OF ALICIA. FROM
MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE WITH
INSUFFICIENT SEA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF 17S, A STRENGTHENING SHEAR
CONSTRAINT, GRADUALLY ASSOCIATED TO MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS ANNOUNCE A CLEAR WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY OF ALICIA,
WHICH AT THE 78-HOUR PERIOD WILL ONLY HAVE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION.=

>

2020-11-15 12:04


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151202
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/11/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 73.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/16 AT 00 UTC:
15.1 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/11/16 AT 12 UTC:
16.3 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-15 06:40


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150623
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/1/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 74.2 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/11/2020 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 16/11/2020 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/11/2020 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 17/11/2020 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 17/11/2020 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 18/11/2020 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
INCURVEE S'EST MAINTENUE MAIS EVOLUE PROGRESSIVBEMENT AU COURS DES
DERNIERS INSTANTS VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN CDO. CETTE EVOLUTION
LAISSE PRESAGER UNE INTENSIFICATION PROCHAINE DE ALICIA. L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE SELON DVORAK PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE
L'ORDRE DE 50KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE : ALICIA CONTINUE SON
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN
PROFOND TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST, LA DORSALE S'EFFACE VERS L'EST ET
LAISSE ALICIA ENTAMER UN PLONGEON VERS LE SUD EN COURS DE JOURNEE.
LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE
GLOBALE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE NETTEMENT AVEC
DEUX SCENARIOS POSSIBLES PROPOSES PAR LA PRESVISION D'ENSEMBLE : LA
PERSISTANCE D'UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD VOIRE LE SUD-EST OU LA
REPRISE GRADUELLE DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS OPTE POUR LA DEUXIEME OPTION.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES JUSQU'A CE
SOIR, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT BIENTOT TRANSITER SOUS L'AXE DE LA
DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. ALICIA VA ENCORE BENEFICIER D'UNE TRES BONNE
DIVERGENCE, D'UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE ET SURTOUT D'UN TRES FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENCORE ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI CE SOIR. SOUS CES CONDITIONS, ALICIA GENERE UN
FLUX D'ALTITUDE TRES MARQUE QUI INDUIT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE VENT
NEFASTE A LA CYCLOGENESE D'UN DEUXIEME SYSTEME LOCALISE AU NORD-OUEST
D'ALICIA. PAR LA SUITE LES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT COMMENCER A SE
DETERIORER NETTEMENT AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT AU SUD
DE 17S ET UN CISAILLEMENT EN HAUSSE, GRADUELLEMENT ASSOCIE A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CES CONDITIONS ANNONCENT
UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE L'INTENSITE DE ALICIA QUI A ECHEANCE DE 84H
NE PRESENTERA PLUS QU'UNE CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE.=

>

2020-11-15 06:40


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 74.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/15 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/11/16 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/11/16 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/11/17 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/11/18 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BUT IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS TOWARDS
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) PATTERN. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT
ALICIA WILL INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATION
ACCORDING TO DVORAK ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 50KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK : ALICIA KEEPS ON HEADING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SHOULD SOON LET ALICIA
DIVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. FROM TUESDAY, THE UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER
WITH TWO POSSIBLE SCENARII SUGGESTED BY THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE : THE
PERSISTANCE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OR THE CAPTURE OF THE
REMNANT LOW BY THE TRADE WINDS. THE PRESENT FORECAST OF THE RSMC OPTS
FOR THE SECOND OPTION.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CONDUCIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING, AS
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SOON TRACK UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. ALICIA
SHOULD STILL BENEFIT FROM AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, RELATIVELY WEAK
WIND SHEAR AND A VERY STRONG OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT. THE SYSTEM COULD
STILL REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY THIS EVENING. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, ALICIA GENERATES A VERY MARKED HIGH ALTITUDE FLOW WHICH
INDUCES A STRONG NEFAST WIND SHEAR TO THE CYCLOGENESIS OF A SECOND
SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH-WEST OF ALICIA. AFTER, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE WITH INSUFFICIENT SEA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
17S, A STRENGTHENING SHEAR CONSTRAINT, GRADUALLY ASSOCIATED TO
MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ANNOUNCE A CLEAR WEAKENING
OF THE INTENSITY OF ALICIA, WHICH AT THE 84-HOUR PERIOD WILL ONLY
HAVE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION.=

>

2020-11-15 06:02


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150559
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/11/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 74.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/15 AT 18 UTC:
14.8 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/11/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.3 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-15 00:25


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150016
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/1/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.6 S / 75.3 E
(ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/11/2020 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/11/2020 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/11/2020 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 17/11/2020 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 17/11/2020 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 18/11/2020 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/11/2020 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5-;CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA FORTE CONVECTION S'EST MAINTENUE
PRES DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION ET LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST
PROGRESSIVEMENT REVENUE VERS UNE STRUCTURE DE BANDE INCURVEE.
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DU CMRS RESTE BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS ENTRE
L'ANALYSE DVORAK ET LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. DANS LE MEME
TEMPS, L'IMAGE 89GHZ SSMIS DE 2241Z REVELE UNE ORGANISATION INTERNE
EN COURS D'AMELIORATION MALGRE UNE FAIBLESSE ENCORE EVIDENTE COTE
EST, CE QUI LAISSE ESPERER LA REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION A COURT
TERME.

ALICIA CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AVEC
L'ARRIVEE D'UN PROFOND TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST, LA DORSALE S'EFFACE
VERS L'EST ET DEVRAIT BIENTOT LAISSER LA TEMPETE PLONGER VERS LE SUD
D'ICI CE SOIR. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE
NETTEMENT AVEC DEUX SCENARIOS POSSIBLES PROPOSES PAR LA PRESVISION
D'ENSEMBLE : LA PERSISTANCE D'UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD VOIRE LE
SUD-EST OU LA REPRISE GRADUELLE DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZE. LE DERNIER RESEAU DU MODELE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN A REJOINT
CETTE SECONDE OPTION. AINSI, LA PARTIE FINALE DE LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE A ETE DECALEE ASSEZ SIGNIFICATIVEMENT VERS L'OUEST EN SE
BASANT SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES DISPONIBLES.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES JUSQU'A
DIMANCHE SOIR, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT BIENTOT TRANSITER SOUS
L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. ALICIA VA ENCORE BENEFICIER D'UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE, D'UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE ET SURTOUT D'UN TRES
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENCORE ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI CE SOIR. EN SOIREE DE DIMANCHE, LES
CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT COMMENCER A SE DETERIORER NETTEMENT AVEC UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S ET UN CISAILLEMENT EN
HAUSSE, GRADUELLEMENT ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE.=

>

2020-11-15 00:25


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150016
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 75.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/15 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/16 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/11/16 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/11/17 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/11/17 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/11/18 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/19 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5-;CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINED NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CLOUD PATTERN PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED BACK
ONTO A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE. THE RSMC INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS STILL
BASED ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND AVAILABLE
OBJECTIVE DATA. MEANWHILE, THE 2241Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN
IMPROVING INNER ORGANISATION DESPITE A CLEAR WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSIFICATION COULD SOON RESUME.

ALICIA KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHWESTWARD AT A QUICK PACE ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD SOON LET ALICIA DIVE SOUTHWARD BY THIS EVENING.
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. FROM
TUESDAY, THE UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER WITH TWO POSSIBLE SCENARII
SUGGESTED BY THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE : THE PERSISTANCE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OR THE CAPTURE OF THE REMNANT LOW BY THE TRADE
WINDS. THE LAST EURO MODEL RUN SHIFTED ON THIS SECOND OPTION. THUS,
THE LAST PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY
SHIFTED WESTWARD BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CONDUCIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, AS
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SOON TRACK UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. ALICIA
SHOULD STILL BENEFIT FROM AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, RELATIVELY WEAK
WIND SHEAR AND A VERY STRONG OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT. THE SYSTEM COULD
STILL REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY THIS EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE WITH INSUFFICIENT SEA
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF 17S, A STRENGTHENING SHEAR CONSTRAINT,
GRADUALLY ASSOCIATED TO MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS.=

>

2020-11-15 00:08


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150006
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/11/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/11/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 75.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/15 AT 12 UTC:
13.9 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/16 AT 00 UTC:
15.8 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-14 18:26


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141818
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/1/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.2 S / 76.3 E
(DIX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/11/2020 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/11/2020 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/11/2020 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 16/11/2020 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 17/11/2020 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 17/11/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/11/2020 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, UNE FORTE POUSSEE CONVECTIVE S'EST
DECLENCHEE PRES DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. LA PASSE ASCAT-B DE 1515Z A
PERMIS DE LOCALISER LE CENTRE PROCHE DE LA BORDURE NORD-EST DU CDO,
CONFIRMANT AINSI UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE PAR UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE DE
SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST. L'ANALYSE DVORAK QUI EN DECOULE EST EN ACCORD
AVEC L'ADT. EN COHERENCE AVEC CES ESTIMATIONS, L'ASCAT REVELE PAR
AILLEURS LA PRESENCE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD. L'IMAGE SSMIS 89GHZ DE 1332Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE PEU
ROBUSTE, AVEC LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE LIMITEE AU DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.

ALICIA CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AVEC
L'ARRIVEE D'UN PROFOND TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST, LA DORSALE S'EFFACE
VERS L'EST ET LAISSERA LA TEMPETE GLISSER VERS LE SUD DEMAIN. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALE.
A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE NETTEMENT AVEC DEUX
SCENARIOS POSSIBLES: LA PERSISTANCE D'UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD VOIR
LE SUD-EST OU LA REPRISE DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES JUSQU'A
DIMANCHE SOIR, MALGRE LA LEGERE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE. ALICIA DEVRAIT
ENCORE BENEFICIER D'UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE, D'UN CISAILLEMENT
FAIBLE ET SURTOUT D'UN TRES FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DEMAIN. EN SOIREE DE
DIMANCHE, LES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT COMMENCER A SE DETERIORER
NETTEMENT AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S, UN
CISAILLEMENT EN HAUSSE, GRADUELLEMENT ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR
SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.=

>

2020-11-14 18:26


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2 S / 76.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/15 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/15 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/11/16 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/11/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/11/17 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS TRIGGERED NEAR
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 1515Z ASCAT-B SWATH SUGGESTS THAT THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTH-EASTERN BORDER OF THE
CDO, CONFIRMING A SHEARED PATTERN UNDER A WEAK TO MODERATE
EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. THE ASSOCIATED DVORAK ANALYSIS
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE. CONSISTENTLY, THE ASCAT DATA
SHOW STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 89GHZ
1332Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A STILL ILL-DEFINED INTERNAL STRUCTURE, WITH
THE MAIN CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

ALICIA KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHWESTWARD AT A QUICK PACE ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OFA DEEP TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND WILL LET ALICIA DIVE SOUTHWARD TOMORROW. AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. FROM TUESDAY, THE
UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER WITH TWO POSSIBLE SCENARII : THE PERSISTANCE
OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OR THE CAPTURE OF THE REMNANT LOW
BY THE TRADE WINDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CONDUCIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT,
DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR CONSTRAINT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STORM.
ALICIA SHOULD STILL BENEFIT FROM AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, RELATIVELY
WEAK WIND SHEAR AND A VERY STRONG OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT. THE SYSTEM
COULD THUS STILL REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE TOMORROW. SUNDAY
NIGHT, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE WITH
INSUFFICIENT SEA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF 17S, A STRENGTHENING SHEAR
CONSTRAINT, GRADUALLY ASSOCIATED TO MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS.=

>

2020-11-14 13:00


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141238
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/1/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6 S / 77.4 E
(NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 160
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/11/2020 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/11/2020 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/11/2020 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/11/2020 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 17/11/2020 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 17/11/2020 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/11/2020 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A EVOLUE EN CDO DEPUIS LA FIN DE MATINEE
AVEC PAR MOMENT UN SIMILI-OEIL SUR LES IMAGES VISIBLES VERS LA
MI-JOURNEE. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE DE 0845Z ET 1101Z MONTRE TOUTEFOIS
QUE LE COEUR CENTRAL PEINE A S'ORGANISER EN MOYENNE TROPO EN LIEN
POSSIBLE AVEC UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR EST. L'IMAGERIE
VAPEUR D'EAU MATERIALISE D'AILLEURS NETTEMENT UN OUTFLOW CONTRARIE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST ALORS QU'IL EST EXCELLENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE RESTE A 50 KT EN BON ACCORD ENTRE LES
PLUS HAUTES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES ET L'ADT.

ALICIA A BIEN REPRIS UN DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-OUEST GUIDEE
PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. AVEC
L'ARRIVEE D'UN PROFOND TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST, LA DORSALE SE DECALE
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST ET LAISSERA UN FLUX DIRECTEUR S'ORIENTANT
AU NORD A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON
ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE,
L'INCERTITUDE DEVIENT AUGMENTE EN LIEN AVEC LE FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR
ET L'EXISTENCE DE DEUX SCENARIOS POSSIBLES: LA PERSISTANCE D'UN
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD VOIR LE SUD-EST OU LA REPRISE DU MINIMUM
RESIDUEL DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TRES
FAVORABLES JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN. AVEC L'AIDE DU RENFORCEMENT DES VENTS
D'OUEST EQUATORIAUX, UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE, PEU DE CISAILLEMENT
ET UN TRES FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DEMAIN. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES
CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT PAR CONTRE SE DETERIORER NETTEMENT AVEC UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S, UN CISAILLEMENT EN
HAUSSE, GRADUELLEMENT ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE.=

>

2020-11-14 13:00


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 77.4 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 160
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/15 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/15 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/11/16 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/11/16 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/11/17 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/11/17 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/18 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED IN A CDO PATTERN SINCE LATE MORNING
WITH OCCASIONAL EYE-LIKE FEATURES ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AROUND MIDDAY.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF 0845Z AND 1101Z SHOW HOWEVER THAT THE INNER
CORE IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF IN THE MID-LEVELS IN POSSIBLE
CONNECTION WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGING CLEARLY MATERIALIZES A POOR OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
WHILE IT IS EXCELLENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 50 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HIGHEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE ADT.

ALICIA HAS WELL RESUMED A RAPID SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT STEERED BY THE
STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A DEEP LAYERS TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL LEAVE A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL
TRAJECTORY. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN RELATION TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND THE EXISTENCE OF
TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS: THE PERSISTENCE OF A SOUTHWARDS TO
SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK OR A SOUTHWESTWARDS OR WESTWARDS DRIFT OF A
REMNANT LOW IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

ON THIS TRAJECTORY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE HELP OF THE STRENGTHENING EQUATORIAL
WESTERLY WINDS, A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE, LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY
STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE TOMORROW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 17S, INCREASING SHEAR, GRADUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-TROPICAL AIR.=

>

2020-11-14 12:25


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 141224
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/11/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/11/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 77.4 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/15 AT 00 UTC:
11.8 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/15 AT 12 UTC:
14.2 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-14 06:59


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140637
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/1/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.6 S / 78.6 E
(HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 160
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/11/2020 18 UTC: 10.4 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/11/2020 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 15/11/2020 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/11/2020 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/11/2020 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 17/11/2020 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/11/2020 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

ALICIA CONTINUE DE MONTRER DES SIGNES D'ORGANSISATION. EN IMAGERIE
CLASSIQUE, LA BANDE INCURVEE BIEN DEFINIE CE MATIN EST EN TRAIN
D'EVOLUER EN CDO SUIT A UN RENFORCEMENT MARQUE DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE PRES DU CENTRE PEU APRES 03Z. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA
MATINEE MONTRENT UNE POURSUITE DE LA CONSOLIDATION DE LA STRUCTURE DE
BASSES COUCHES. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 50 KT EN FOURCHETTE
HAUTE DES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK DISPONIBLES (40-50 KT EN VENTS
10-MIN) MAIS EN BON ACCORD AVEC UN ADT A 45-50 KT (VENT MOYEN SUR 10
MIN) ET DES VENTS A PLUS DE 45 KT MESURES DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST
PAR LES ASCAT DE CE MATIN.

ALICIA A RALENTIT CES DERNIERES 6H MAIS DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UN
DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-OUEST GUIDEE PAR LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. SOUS L'IMPULSION DE LA
DYNAMIQUE PLUS AU SUD, LA DORSALE SE DECALE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS
L'EST ET LAISSERA UN FLUX DIRECTEUR S'ORIENTANT AU NORD A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, L'INCERTITUDE DEVIENT
IMPORTANTE EN LIEN AVEC LE FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR ET L'EXISTENCE DE
DEUX SCENARIOS POSSIBLES: LA PERSISTANCE D'UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD
VOIR LE SUD-EST OU LA REPRISE DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TRES
FAVORABLES JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN. AVEC L'AIDE DU RENFORCEMENT DES VENTS
D'OUEST EQUATORIAUX, UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE, PEU DE CISAILLEMENT
ET UN TRES FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES 24/48H. EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT PAR CONTRE SE DETERIORER
NETTEMENT AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S, UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN HAUSSE, GRADUELLEMENT ASSOCIE A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.=

>

2020-11-14 06:59


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140637
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.6 S / 78.6 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 160
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/14 18 UTC: 10.4 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/15 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/11/15 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/11/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/11/16 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/11/17 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/18 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

ALICIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY,
THE WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND PATTERN OF THIS MORNING IS EVOLVING INTO
A CDO PATTERN AFTER A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE
CENTER SINCE 03Z. THE MORNING MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEAL A FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVELS STRUCTURE. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 50 KT IN THE HIGH RANGE OF THE LAST AVAILABLE DVORAK
ESTIMATES (40-50 KT IN 10-MIN WINDS) BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
ADT AT 45-50 KT (10-MIN WINDS) AND WINDS OVER 45 KT MEASURED IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT BY THIS MORNING'S ASCAT.

ALICIA HAS SLOWED DOWN THESE LAST 6 HOURS BUT SHOULD RESUME A FAIRLY
FAST SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT GUIDED BY THE GUIDING FLOW GENERATED BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UNDER THE IMPULSE OF THE DYNAMICS FURTHER
SOUTH, THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARDS AND WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY GUIDING FLOW FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL TRAJECTORY. AT THE END OF THE
DEADLINE, THE UNCERTAINTY BECOMES IMPORTANT IN RELATION TO THE WEAK
GUIDING FLOW AND THE EXISTENCE OF TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS: THE
PERSISTENCE OF A SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT OR THE RESUMPTION
OF THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE UP TO
MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
WINDS, A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE, LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, ALICIA IS LIKELY TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY IN
THE NEXT 24/48H. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 17S, AND INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED GRADUALLY
WITH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR INTRUSIONS.=

>

2020-11-14 06:28


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140624
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/11/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/11/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.6 S / 78.6 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/14 AT 18 UTC:
10.4 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/15 AT 06 UTC:
12.7 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-14 00:55


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140035
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/1/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.0 S / 79.2 E
(HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 19 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 240 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/11/2020 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/11/2020 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 15/11/2020 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/11/2020 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/11/2020 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 17/11/2020 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/11/2020 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUE
DE S'ORGANISER AUTOUR DU CENTRE D'ALICIA. LES PASSES SSMI DE 2223Z ET
AMSR2 DE 2027Z MONTRENT QUE LE COEUR BIEN QU'ENCORE ALLONGE MONTRE DE
PLUS EN PLUS DES SIGNES DE COURBURES. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES
INFRAROUGE, UN POINT CHAUD PERSISTANT SEMBLE SE METTRE EN PLACE A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE, SANS DOUTE EN LIEN AVEC LA STRUCTURE ASSEZ LARGE
DE LA CIRCULATION INTERNE.

ALICIA CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER RAPIDEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST GUIDEE
PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. SOUS
L'IMPULSION DE LA DYNAMIQUE PLUS AU SUD, LA DORSALE SE DECALE
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST ET LAISSERA UN FLUX DIRECTEUR S'ORIENTANT
AU NORD A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON
ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE,
L'INCERTITUDE DEVIENT IMPORTANTE EN LIEN AVEC LE FAIBLE FLUX
DIRECTEUR ET L'EXISTENCE DE DEUX SCENARIOS POSSIBLES: LA PERSISTANCE
D'UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD VOIR LE SUD-EST OU LA REPRISE DU MINIMUM
RESIDUEL DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE. POUR L'INSTANT, LE PREMIER SCENARIO
SEMBLE ENCORE LE PLUS PROBABLE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TRES
FAVORABLES JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN. AVEC L'AIDE DU RENFORCEMENT DES VENTS
D'OUEST EQUATORIAUX, UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE, PEU DE CISAILLEMENT
ET UN TRES FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES 24/48H. EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT PAR CONTRE SE DETERIORER
NETTEMENT AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S, UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN HAUSSE, GRADUELLEMENT ASSOCIE A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.=

>

2020-11-14 00:55


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140035
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/1/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.0 S / 79.2 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 240 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/14 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/15 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/15 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/11/16 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/11/16 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/11/17 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/18 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVTY GOT BETTER ORGANIZED
AROUND ALICIA CENTER. 2027Z AMRS2 AND 2223Z SSMI SHOW THAT EVEN THE
INNER IS STILL ELONGATED, IT FEATURES INCREASING SIGNS OF CURVATURE.
ON THE LATEST IMAGES, A PERSISTENT WARM SPOT CAN BE SEEN ON THE
INFRARED IMAGERY, PROBABLY RELATED TO THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE
INNER CORE.

ALICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS GUIDED BY THE
STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
SOON ACCELERATE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. UNDER THE IMPULSE OF THE
DYNAMICS FURTHER SOUTH, THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND
WILL LEAVE A NORTHWARD DIRECTED STEERING FLOW FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL TRACK. FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, THE UNCERTAINTY BECOMES IMPORTANT IN RELATION TO THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND THE EXISTENCE OF TWO POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS:CONTINUATION OF A SOUTH/SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT OR
TAEKEOVER OF THE TRADE WIND IN THE STEERING FLOW. THE FIRST ONE SEEMS
STILL MORE LIKELY.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO
MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
WINDS, A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE, LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, ALICIA IS LIKELY TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY IN
THE NEXT 24/48H. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 17S, AND INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED GRADUALLY
WITH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR INTRUSIONS.=

>

2020-11-14 00:15


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140014
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/11/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/11/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.0 S / 79.2 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 19 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/14 AT 12 UTC:
10.2 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/15 AT 00 UTC:
12.5 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-11-13 19:00


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131846
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/1/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 6.4 S / 80.8 E
(SIX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/11/2020 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/11/2020 18 UTC: 10.0 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 15/11/2020 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 15/11/2020 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/11/2020 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 16/11/2020 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/11/2020 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 18/11/2020 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
RENFORCEE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME AVEC UNE ACCENTUATION DE
LA COURBURE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1530Z TEMOIGNE D'UNE AMELIORATION DE
LA CIRCULATION INTERNE AVEC DES VENTS ATTEIGNANT LE COUP DE VENT DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. NEANMOINS ELLE APPARAIT ENCORE ASSEZ LARGE ET
ALLONGEE CE QUI POURRAIT LIMITER SON INTENSIFICATION A COURTE
ECHEANCE. LE SYSTEME A DONC ETE BAPTISE ALICIA PAR LES SERVICES
MAURICIENS A 1730Z.

TOUJOURS PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION. ALICIA CONTINUE
D'ETRE GUIDEE PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROCHAINEMENT ACCELERER SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. SOUS L'IMPULSION DE LA DYNAMIQUE PLUS
AU SUD, LA DORSALE SE DECALE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST ET LAISSERA
UN FLUX DIRECTEUR S'ORIENTANT AU NORD A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALE.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, L'INCERTITUDE DEVIENT IMPORTANTE EN LIEN AVEC LE
FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR ET L'EXISTENCE DE DEUX SCENARIOS POSSIBLES:
EVACUATION DANS LE DOMAINE EXTRA-TROPICAL OU COMBLEMENT DANS LE
DOMAINE TROPICAL AU NORD DE LA CEINTURE ANTICYCLONIQUE DE BASSES
COUCHES RECONSTITUEE. LE SCENARIO D'UNE EVACUATION SEMBLE POUR
L'INSTANT LE PLUS PROBABLE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TRES
FAVORABLES AU COURS DES 2 PROCHAINS JOURS. AVEC L'AIDE DU
RENFORCEMENT DES VENTS D'OUEST EQUATORIAUX, UNE TRES BONNE
DIVERGENCE, PEU DE CISAILLEMENT ET UN TRES FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DIMANCHE.
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT PAR CONTRE SE
DETERIORER AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT AU SUD DE 17S, UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN HAUSSE GRADUELLEMENT ASSOCIE A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.=

>

2020-11-13 19:00


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.4 S / 80.8 E
(SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/14 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/14 18 UTC: 10.0 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/15 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/11/15 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/11/16 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/11/16 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVE INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER
WITH AN IMPROVING CURVATURE. 1530Z ASCAT SWATH CONFIRM THIS
IMPRESSION WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HOWEVER THE INNER CORE IS STILL QUITE BROAD AND ELONGATED WHICH MAY
SLOW THE DEEPENING RATE AT SHORT RANGE. THIS SYSTEM WAS THEREFORE
NAMED ALICIA BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 1730Z.

STILL NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ALICIA CONTINUES TO
BE GUIDED BY THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SOON ACCELERATE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. UNDER
THE IMPULSE OF THE DYNAMICS FURTHER SOUTH, THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL LEAVE A NORTHWARD DIRECTED STEERING FLOW
FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS GLOBAL TRAJECTORY. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE UNCERTAINTY BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN RELATION TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND THE EXISTENCE OF
TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS: EVACUATION IN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL DOMAIN OR
FILLING UP IN THE TROPICAL DOMAIN NORTH OF THE RECONSTRUCTED
LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC BELT. THE FIRST ONE SEEMS MORE LIKELY FOR NOW.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
WINDS, A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE, LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, ALICIA MAY REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE LEVEL ON SUNDAY. AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH
INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 17S, AND INCREASING SHEAR
ASSOCIATED GRADUALLY WITH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR INTRUSIONS.=

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2020-11-13 18:13


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 131810
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/11/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 13/11/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.4 S / 80.8 E
(SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 300 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/14 AT 06 UTC:
7.8 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/14 AT 18 UTC:
10.0 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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