Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KARINA-20 Off-shore from 13 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC to 17 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-20

Off-shore

16 Sep 2020 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (16 Sep 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	61 km/h	0.4 m	221 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	79 km/h	0.4 m	773 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	12 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	14 Sep 2020 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	15 Sep 2020 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	15 Sep 2020 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	16 Sep 2020 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	16 Sep 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	7,866
50-100 mm	Mexico	51,528

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	12 Sep 2020 12:00	305	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 00:00	687	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	388	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
4	14 Sep 2020 00:00	366	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 12:00	276	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
6	15 Sep 2020 00:00	273	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	15 Sep 2020 12:00	161	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	16 Sep 2020 00:00	178	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	16 Sep 2020 12:00	224	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Molino, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Sep 2020 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Sep 2020 19:00	Molino	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 19:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 19:30	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 19:30	Tecomate	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 19:30	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 19:15	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 19:15	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.4
	18 Sep 2020 05:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	18 Sep 2020 02:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 20:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 20:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 20:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2020 04:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2020 02:30	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 01:30	Aguaje	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 01:30	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 21:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 15:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 15:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 15:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2020 05:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2020 10:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2020 04:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 08:45	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 08:45	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2020 02:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 15:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 15:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 15:15	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 15:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 15:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 20:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 20:45	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 20:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 09:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 09:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 09:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 09:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 09:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:30	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:45	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 16:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 10:15	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 15:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:30	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 22:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 03:30	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 18:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 18:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 18:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 18:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 20:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:15	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.