Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KARINA-20 Off-shore from 13 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC to 17 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-20

Off-shore

14 Sep 2020 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (14 Sep 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	76 km/h	0.4 m	276 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	79 km/h	0.4 m	773 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	12 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	14 Sep 2020 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	589
50-100 mm	Mexico	107,624

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	12 Sep 2020 12:00	305	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 00:00	687	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	388	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
4	14 Sep 2020 00:00	366	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 12:00	331	Few people			-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Molino, Mexico. This height is estimated for 14 Sep 2020 23:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	Molino	Mexico	0.4
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.4
	14 Sep 2020 23:45	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.3
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.3
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.3
	14 Sep 2020 23:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2020 00:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	14 Sep 2020 23:45	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2020 00:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 23:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 19:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 19:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 19:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 22:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 22:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 13:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 13:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 13:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 00:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 20:30	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 20:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 22:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 22:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 23:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:45	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 12:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:45	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 14:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:45	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 12:45	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 12:45	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:45	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:00	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 22:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:15	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 12:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 22:30	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:15	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:15	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 22:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:15	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:45	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 21:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:45	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 12:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 12:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 13:30	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 14:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:30	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:30	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 23:30	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:15	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 20:15	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 12:30	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 22:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.