Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FERDINAND-20
Off-shore
28 Feb 2020 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FERDINAND-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Indonesia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (01 Mar 12:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.1 m 43 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 0.3 m 494 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

173 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndonesia990 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Feb 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 24 Feb 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 24 Feb 2020 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 24 Feb 2020 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Feb 2020 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 25 Feb 2020 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 25 Feb 2020 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 25 Feb 2020 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Feb 2020 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 26 Feb 2020 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 26 Feb 2020 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 26 Feb 2020 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 27 Feb 2020 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 27 Feb 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 27 Feb 2020 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 27 Feb 2020 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 28 Feb 2020 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 28 Feb 2020 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia8,786,278 
50-100 mmIndonesia115,730,721 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Feb 2020 00:00 80 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 24 Feb 2020 06:00 92 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 24 Feb 2020 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 24 Feb 2020 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Feb 2020 00:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 25 Feb 2020 06:00 184 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 8 25 Feb 2020 12:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 25 Feb 2020 18:00 265 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Feb 2020 00:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 26 Feb 2020 06:00 209 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 12 26 Feb 2020 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 26 Feb 2020 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 27 Feb 2020 00:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 27 Feb 2020 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 27 Feb 2020 12:00 124 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 27 Feb 2020 18:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 28 Feb 2020 00:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 28 Feb 2020 06:00 269 8.8 million
- - - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Pardoo, Australia. This height is estimated for 01 Mar 2020 12:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
01 Mar 2020 12:45 Pardoo Australia  0.1
01 Mar 2020 19:00 Dampier Australia  0.1
01 Mar 2020 19:00 Karratha Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:30 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:30 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:30 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:30 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:30 Soega Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:30 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:30 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:30 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:30 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:30 Banjoebiroe Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:00 Kencong Indonesia  0.1
28 Feb 2020 10:00 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.1
01 Mar 2020 12:45 Condon Australia  0.1
29 Feb 2020 04:00 Waingapu Indonesia  0.1
29 Feb 2020 04:00 Matawai Indonesia  0.1
29 Feb 2020 04:00 Pajeti Indonesia  0.1
29 Feb 2020 04:00 Lakohembi Indonesia  0.1