Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FERDINAND-20
Off-shore

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GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2020-02-29 08:45

WTXS51 PGTW 290900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200229071131
2020022906 20S FERDINAND  023  01 310 05 SATL 020
T000 156S 1113E 035 R034 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 152S 1109E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 023
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 111.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 111.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.2S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 111.2E.
29FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
432 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 12 FEET.
//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022718 167S1136E  55
2020022718 167S1136E  55
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022806 165S1129E  45
2020022812 163S1126E  40
2020022818 161S1122E  45
2020022900 159S1117E  40
2020022906 156S1113E  35
NNNN

>

2020-02-29 08:45

WTXS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 023
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 111.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 111.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.2S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 111.2E.
29FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
432 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY RAPIDLY ERODING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS
SHEARED, PARTIALLY EXPOSING A WEAK AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
290129Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS SHOWING 35KT WIND BARBS MAX. ANALYSES
INDICATE MODERATE 20-KT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAVE OFFSET THE RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND WARM SSTS. THE OVERALL HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND LEAD
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE WIDELY SPREAD, AN
INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STORM MOTION. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 12 FEET.
NNNN

>

2020-02-29 02:08

WTXS51 PGTW 290300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200229012355
2020022900 20S FERDINAND  022  01 305 09 SATL 060
T000 154S 1114E 045 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 150S 1109E 040 R034 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 147S 1106E 040 R034 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 145S 1104E 035 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 142S 1101E 030
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 022
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z --- NEAR 15.4S 111.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 111.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 15.0S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 14.7S 110.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 14.5S 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 14.2S 110.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 111.3E.
29FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
441 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 010300Z.
//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022718 167S1136E  55
2020022718 167S1136E  55
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022806 165S1129E  45
2020022812 163S1126E  40
2020022818 159S1122E  45
2020022900 154S1114E  45
NNNN

>

2020-02-29 02:06

WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 022
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z --- NEAR 15.4S 111.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 111.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 15.0S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 14.7S 110.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 14.5S 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 14.2S 110.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 111.3E.
29FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
441 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 20S APPEARS TO BE
MOVING ALONGSIDE DRY AIR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST; HOWEVER, IT
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION, AS SEEN IN
A 282230Z WSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW/KNES, A 281806Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS
AND A 290000Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND PERSISTENT VWS. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48, BUT
COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z,
291500Z, 292100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-28 20:19

WTXS51 PGTW 282100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200228193127
2020022818 20S FERDINAND  021  01 315 06 SATL 060
T000 159S 1122E 045 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 155S 1116E 045 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 151S 1111E 040 R034 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 148S 1107E 035 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 144S 1104E 030
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 112.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 112.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 15.5S 111.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.1S 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 14.8S 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 14.4S 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 112.1E.
28FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
399 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.
//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022718 167S1136E  55
2020022718 167S1136E  55
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022806 165S1129E  45
2020022812 163S1126E  40
2020022818 159S1122E  45
NNNN

>

2020-02-28 20:15

WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 112.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 112.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 15.5S 111.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.1S 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 14.8S 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 14.4S 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 112.1E.
28FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
399 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 20S APPEARS TO BE
MOVING ALONGSIDE DRY AIR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, TC
20S CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A COMPACT, CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW/KNES, A 281126Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS AND A 281840Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS.
TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND PERSISTENT VWS. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48, BUT COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER WITHIN
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-28 14:52

WTXS51 PGTW 281500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200228140558
2020022812 20S FERDINAND  020  01 285 04 SATL 050
T000 164S 1125E 045 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 160S 1119E 045 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 156S 1113E 040 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 153S 1109E 035 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 151S 1104E 030
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 020
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 112.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 112.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.0S 111.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 15.6S 111.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 15.3S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 15.1S 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 112.4E.
28FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
365 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022718 167S1136E  55
2020022718 167S1136E  55
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022806 165S1129E  45
2020022812 164S1125E  45
NNNN

>

2020-02-28 14:48

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 020
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 112.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 112.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.0S 111.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 15.6S 111.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 15.3S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 15.1S 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 112.4E.
28FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
365 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATED EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS (DRIER MORE STABLE AIR) ADVECTING
INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, TC 20S CONTINUES
TO STUBBORNLY FIGHT THE ENVIRONMENT AND HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT,
SHRINKING CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IN A 281022Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (15 KNOTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW/KNES
AND A 281020Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. TC 20S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
STEADILY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND PERSISTENT VWS. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 BUT COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER WITHIN
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-28 08:27

WTXS51 PGTW 280900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200228070809
2020022806 20S FERDINAND  019  01 270 04 SATL 020
T000 165S 1129E 045 R034 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 163S 1122E 045 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 160S 1115E 040 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 156S 1110E 035 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 154S 1106E 030
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 112.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 112.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 16.3S 112.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 16.0S 111.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.6S 111.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 15.4S 110.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 112.7E.
28FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
355 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022718 167S1136E  55
2020022718 167S1136E  55
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022806 165S1129E  45
NNNN

>

2020-02-28 07:59

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 112.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 112.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 16.3S 112.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 16.0S 111.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.6S 111.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 15.4S 110.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 112.7E.
28FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
355 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. MSI CONTINUES TO DEPICT EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS (DRIER MORE STABLE AIR) ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S CONTINUES TO STUBBORNLY FIGHT THE
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT, SHRINKING CORE OF DEEP
CONVECTION AS WELL AS A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 280551Z
AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (15 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW/KNES, A 280540Z ADT ESTIMATE
OF 3.1 AND A 280147Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. TC 20S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
STEADILY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND PERSISTENT VWS. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 BUT COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER WITHIN
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-28 03:04

WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 113.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 113.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 16.4S 112.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.1S 111.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 15.8S 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 15.5S 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 113.1E.
28FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
351 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS (DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR)
WRAPPING UNDER THE OVERHEAD CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
EVIDENT IN A 272248Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 280035Z
METOP-A ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS SET
BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-3.5 (45-55 KTS) BY
PGTW/KNES, A 272145Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KTS, AND A 272330Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE OF T3.4 (53 KTS). ANIMATED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MSI REVEAL THAT TC 20S HAS BEEN ENTRAINING DRY
AIR, LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN THE PAST
SIX HOURS. AN ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS OFFSETTING THE
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM AT 28-30 CELSIUS, CONTRIBUTING TO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12, THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THIS OUTLIER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-28 03:00

WTXS51 PGTW 280300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200228024515
2020022800 20S FERDINAND  018  01 315 04 SATL 025
T000 165S 1133E 050 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 164S 1126E 045 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 161S 1118E 040 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 158S 1112E 035 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 155S 1107E 030
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 113.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 113.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 16.4S 112.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.1S 111.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 15.8S 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 15.5S 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 113.1E.
28FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022718 168S1136E  55
2020022718 168S1136E  55
2020022800 165S1133E  50
2020022800 165S1133E  50
NNNN

>

2020-02-27 20:58

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 113.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 113.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 16.7S 112.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 16.5S 112.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 16.2S 111.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.8S 110.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 113.4E.
27FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
331 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271749Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) FROM PGTW/KNES/APRF AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 271800Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.3
(51 KTS). ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND EIR IMAGERY REVEAL
THAT THE SYSTEM IS ENTRAINING SOME DRY AIR, BUT HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WITH NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, TC 20S REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AT 28-30 CELSIUS. UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST,
TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, STEADILY
WEAKENING DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48, IF NOT SOONER, DUE
TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
NAVGEM AS AN OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET
NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TOWARDS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH PLACES MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-27 20:54

WTXS51 PGTW 272100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200227203314
2020022718 20S FERDINAND  017  01 270 04 SATL 020
T000 168S 1136E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 167S 1129E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 165S 1121E 040 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 162S 1114E 035 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 158S 1108E 030
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 113.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 113.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 16.7S 112.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 16.5S 112.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 16.2S 111.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.8S 110.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 113.4E.
27FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022712 168S1140E  55
2020022718 168S1136E  55
2020022718 168S1136E  55
NNNN

>

2020-02-27 14:33

WTXS51 PGTW 271500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200227131132
2020022712 20S FERDINAND  016  01 235 03 SATL 030
T000 169S 1140E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 171S 1134E 045 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 171S 1128E 040 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 169S 1121E 035 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 166S 1115E 030
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 114.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 114.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 17.1S 113.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 17.1S 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.9S 112.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.6S 111.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 113.9E.
27FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
324 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022706 167S1143E  65
2020022712 169S1140E  55
2020022712 169S1140E  55
NNNN

>

2020-02-27 14:26

WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 114.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 114.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 17.1S 113.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 17.1S 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.9S 112.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.6S 111.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 113.9E.
27FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
324 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION. A 271100Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT IMAGE INDICATES A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, WHICH IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR BEHIND THE WEAKENING TREND.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU
24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND PERSISTENT VWS.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD STEER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 BUT COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER WITHIN
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-27 08:58

WTXS51 PGTW 270900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200227074945
2020022706 20S FERDINAND  015  01 240 02 SATL 050
T000 166S 1143E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 168S 1137E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 169S 1132E 045 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 169S 1126E 040 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 167S 1119E 035 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 161S 1110E 030
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 114.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 114.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 16.8S 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 16.9S 113.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 16.9S 112.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 16.7S 111.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 16.1S 111.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 114.1E.
27FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
342 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022618 165S1147E  90
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022700 165S1145E  80
2020022706 166S1143E  65
2020022706 166S1143E  65
2020022706 166S1143E  65
NNNN

>

2020-02-27 08:52

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 114.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 114.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 16.8S 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 16.9S 113.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 16.9S 112.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 16.7S 111.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 16.1S 111.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 114.1E.
27FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
342 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
MSI ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS (DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR)
ADVECTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH APPEARS
TO BE ENTRAINING INTO THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A 270208Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU
36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND PERSISTENT VWS.
AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD STEER
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 BUT COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER WITHIN
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-27 03:11

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 114.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 114.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.8S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 17.0S 113.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 17.1S 112.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 17.0S 112.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 16.5S 111.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 16.2S 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 114.3E.
27FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
348 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THINNING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262225Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
HAS DIMINISHED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TURNING EVIDENT
IN MSI AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) BY PGTW, ABRF, AND KNES,
AND PLACED ABOVE BOTH A 270000Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (T3.8/61
KTS) AND A 262226Z SATCON ESTIMATE (51 KTS). TC 20S REMAINS IN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, EASTERLY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P, LOCATED TO THE EAST, IS APPLYING SOME
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF TC 20S. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST IS ACTING AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THUS,
TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU
36. AFTERWARDS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM, ALTERING THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AT THIS TIME, THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW AN EXTENSION OF THE
STR BUILDING IN AND STEERING TC 20S WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. CONVERSELY,
OTHER MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM RECURVING ON ITSELF TO AN EASTWARD TRACK
IN A WEAKENED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LIKELY INFLUENCED BY BINARY
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P. THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST, TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DISSIPATION OVER WATER IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, BUT INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTERWARDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-27 03:07

WTXS51 PGTW 270300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200227025259
2020022700 20S FERDINAND  014  01 270 02 SATL XTRP 020
T000 165S 1144E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 168S 1139E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 170S 1133E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 171S 1127E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 170S 1121E 045 R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 165S 1113E 035 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 162S 1111E 030
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 114.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 114.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.8S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 17.0S 113.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 17.1S 112.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 17.0S 112.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 16.5S 111.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 16.2S 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 114.3E.
27FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022618 165S1146E  90
2020022618 165S1146E  90
2020022618 165S1146E  90
2020022700 165S1144E  80
2020022700 165S1144E  80
2020022700 165S1144E  80
NNNN

>

2020-02-26 14:43

WTXS51 PGTW 261500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200226133727
2020022612 20S FERDINAND  012  02 240 04 SATL 020
T000 163S 1148E 095 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 165S 1143E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 166S 1138E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 167S 1132E 065 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 166S 1128E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 162S 1127E 035 R034 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 160S 1126E 030
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 114.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 114.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.5S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.6S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 16.7S 113.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 16.6S 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.2S 112.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 16.0S 112.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 114.7E.
26FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
362 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022606 161S1152E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
2020022612 163S1148E  95
NNNN

>

2020-02-26 14:42

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 114.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 114.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.5S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.6S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 16.7S 113.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 16.6S 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.2S 112.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 16.0S 112.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 114.7E.
26FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
362 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH AN
EMBEDDED YET CLOUD FILLED CENTER. OVER THE LAST FEW TAUS, CONVECTION
HAS CYCLED, INTERMITTENTLY REVEALING AN EYE THEN SUBSUMING IT WITHIN
THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ONCE AGAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 261113Z COLOR37 GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ON LOW LEVELS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE IR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 95 KTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KTS) BY APRF, PGTW, AND KNES, SLIGHTLY ABOVE A
261114Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 88 KTS AND A 261200Z ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T.50 (90 KTS). LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P, LOCATED 997 NM TO THE EAST, IS
IMPINGING UPON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TC 20S, ALTHOUGH TC 20S STILL
SPORTS A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY, THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS THAT TC 20S IS ALREADY
STARTING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN BANDING THAT
IS APPEARING IN THE EIR LOOP. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 20S. UNDER ITS
INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MOSTLY WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36. THEN, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOW AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
BUILDING IN, STEERING TC 20S NORTHWESTWARD. OTHER MODELS RECURVE THE
SYSTEM BACK ON ITSELF IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LIKELY FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF BINARY TC INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P TO
THE EAST. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 20S IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-
SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, WITH FULL DISSIPATION OVER WATER OCCURRING BY
TAU 96. DUE TO THE VARIATION IN MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH
TAU 36, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND
UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM SHARPLY EASTWARD, BUT
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEFORE IT
CAN COMPLETE THE TURN EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-02-26 03:08

WTXS51 PGTW 260300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200226025133
2020022600 20S FERDINAND  010  02 280 05 SATL 020
T000 158S 1155E 095 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 161S 1149E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 163S 1144E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 164S 1139E 075 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 165S 1135E 065 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 164S 1127E 045 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 160S 1122E 030
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 010
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 115.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 115.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.1S 114.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.3S 114.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.4S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 16.5S 113.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.4S 112.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 16.0S 112.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 115.4E.
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022506 155S1167E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022518 159S1160E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
2020022600 158S1155E  95
NNNN

>

2020-02-26 03:04

WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 010
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 115.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 115.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.1S 114.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.3S 114.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.4S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 16.5S 113.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.4S 112.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 16.0S 112.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 115.4E.
26FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 398 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT, CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 252238Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A 20 NM
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITHIN A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. SET AT 95 KTS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-5.5
(90-102 KTS) BY PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. THIS IS SET HIGHER THAN A
260030Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.9 (87 KTS) AND A
252235Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 81 KTS WHICH SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND
WITHIN THE SYSTEM. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, EASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P, LOCATED 1040 NM TO
THE EAST, IS APPLYING SOME PRESSURE TO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF TC 20S.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST IS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM FOR TC 20S. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. THEN, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL
BUILD IN, STEERING TC 20S WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 20S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, WITH FULL
DISSIPATION OVER WATER OCCURRING BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. TWO NOTABLE OUTLIERS ARE THE
GALWEM AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS. GALWEM PRESENTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK WHILE NAVGEM TURNS TC 20S SOUTHWARD THEN BACK EASTWARD AS TC
20S INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P WHICH IS TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS LARGE A SPREAD
WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ECMWF AND UKMET ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOW THE
EASTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 48 AND 96, RESPECTIVELY. CONVERSELY, THE
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOLLOW A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK PRIOR TO CURVING NORTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE
VARIATION IN MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

2020-02-25 15:07

WTXS51 PGTW 251500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200225144258
2020022512 20S FERDINAND  008  02 225 04 SATL 010
T000 158S 1165E 090 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 160S 1157E 095 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 163S 1149E 095 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 166S 1143E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 169S 1136E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 171S 1126E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 167S 1118E 040 R034 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD
T120 162S 1111E 030
AMP
    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 116.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 116.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 16.0S 115.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.3S 114.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.6S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.9S 113.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 17.1S 112.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.7S 111.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 16.2S 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 116.3E.
25FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
413 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022506 155S1168E  85
2020022506 155S1168E  85
2020022506 155S1168E  85
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
2020022512 158S1165E  90
NNNN

>

2020-02-25 15:06

WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 116.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 116.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 16.0S 115.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.3S 114.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.6S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.9S 113.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 17.1S 112.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.7S 111.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 16.2S 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 116.3E.
25FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
413 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN
A RAGGED EYE AND CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL HAS THINNED AND WARMED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS BASED ON THE KNES AND APRF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND A 250612Z SATCON OF 92 KTS, UNDER THE
PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS) AND A 251127Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110 KTS THAT IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.8 (110 KTS). ANALYSES INDICATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW
(10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (30-32C). HOWEVER,
EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P, WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY
1030 NM AWAY, WEST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, IS STARTING TO IMPINGE
ON THE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TC 20S. TC 20S WILL CONTINUE ON
ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR WILL
BUILD AND FORM AN EXTENSION THAT WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE MARGINAL
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KTS AT 12 HOURS. HWRF AND SHIPS
DEPICT A LARGER DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION, WHILE COAMPS-TC AND GFS
EITHER BRIEFLY MAINTAIN OR BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 120, TC FERDINAND WILL
BE REDUCED TO 30 KTS AND DISSIPATED. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD
AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
NAVGEM THE EXTREME EAST OUTLIER, AN INDICATION OF EXCESSIVE BINARY
INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY CYCLONE, 19P, PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER
WATER IN THE GFS SOLUTION OR SKIRT THE COASTLINE OF NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD IN ALL OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AROUND TAU
96. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF GFS, GALWEM, AND ECMWF FLATTEN OUT THE
TRACK OF TC 20S TO DUE WESTWARD IN THE LONG TERM, WHILE THE GFS
ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE STILL SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD CURVE IN THE
LONG TERM. NAVGEM AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE BOTH LOOP TC 20S BACK
EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO PROJECTED
INTERACTION WITH TC 19P. AS A RESULT OF THE SPREAD OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO
TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED AHEAD OF AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, AND TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE FASTER TRACK MOTION IN THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND GFS
SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-02-25 02:35

WTXS51 PGTW 250300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200225015445
2020022500 20S FERDINAND  006  01 225 04 SATL 025
T000 153S 1171E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 156S 1165E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 159S 1159E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 162S 1153E 085 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 166S 1146E 075 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 169S 1138E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 168S 1133E 045 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 159S 1120E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 15.3S 117.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 117.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 15.6S 116.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 15.9S 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.2S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.6S 114.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 16.9S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.8S 113.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 15.9S 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 117.0E.
25FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
453 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022418 150S1174E  60
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
2020022500 153S1171E  65
NNNN

>

2020-02-25 02:31

WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 15.3S 117.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 117.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 15.6S 116.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 15.9S 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.2S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.6S 114.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 16.9S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.8S 113.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 15.9S 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 117.0E.
25FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
453 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
RAGGED PINHOLE EYE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEEPENED AND BECAME
MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE 242202Z CORIOLIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW.
ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-
30C). TC 20S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL BUILD AND FORM AN EXTENSION
THAT WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 90KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 120, TC FERDINAND WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS AND
DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH NAVGEM THE EXTREME EAST
OUTLIER, AN INDICATION OF EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE, 19P, PROJECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
AROUND TAU 72, EXIT INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AND APPROACH TC 20S WITHIN
600NM. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-24 14:38

WTXS51 PGTW 241500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200224133023
2020022412 20S FERDINAND  004  01 225 07 SATL 030
T000 149S 1175E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 153S 1170E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 157S 1164E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 159S 1157E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 161S 1150E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 166S 1141E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 166S 1133E 045 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 159S 1120E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 117.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 117.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 15.3S 117.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 15.7S 116.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 15.9S 115.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.1S 115.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.6S 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 16.6S 113.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 15.9S 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 117.4E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
484 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1180E  45
2020022412 149S1175E  55
2020022412 149S1175E  55
NNNN

>

2020-02-24 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 117.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 117.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 15.3S 117.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 15.7S 116.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 15.9S 115.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.1S 115.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.6S 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 16.6S 113.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 15.9S 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 117.4E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
484 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 240942Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST
VALUES (29-30C). TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72,
THE STR WILL TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF
115NM AT TAU 72, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 120. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS DEPICT
THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING STR, AND CONSEQUENTLY MAJOR DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK ORIENTATION AND TRACK SPEEDS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TC 20S SHOULD
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS EXPECTED BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. WITH THE APPROACH OF TC 19P IN THE LATER PERIOD, THERE
IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ITS OUTFLOW TO DEGRADE TC 20S'S OUTFLOW
LEADING TO A SHARPER WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z,
250900Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-24 08:40

WTXS51 PGTW 240900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200224074603
2020022406 20S FERDINAND  003  01 225 07 SATL 020
T000 144S 1179E 045 R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 149S 1174E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 152S 1168E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 155S 1160E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 158S 1153E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 165S 1143E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 167S 1131E 045 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 156S 1115E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 117.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 117.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.9S 117.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 15.2S 116.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 15.5S 116.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 15.8S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 16.5S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 16.7S 113.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 15.6S 111.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 117.8E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
521 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1189E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 139S1184E  40
2020022406 144S1179E  45
NNNN

>

2020-02-24 08:39

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 117.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 117.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.9S 117.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 15.2S 116.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 15.5S 116.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 15.8S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 16.5S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 16.7S 113.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 15.6S 111.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 117.8E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
521 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 240621Z GMI 36GHZ
COLOR IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND RECENT ADT
ESTIMATES OF 2.8-2.9. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72,
THE STR WILL TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF
105NM AT TAU 72, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 120. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS DEPICT
THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING STR, AND CONSEQUENTLY MAJOR DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK ORIENTATION AND TRACK SPEEDS. ADDITIONALLY, ECMWF RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AND JUMPS THE CENTER TO TC 19P, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO REGENERATE OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TC 20S
SHOULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. WITH THE APPROACH OF TC 19P IN THE LATER PERIOD, THERE
IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ITS OUTFLOW TO DEGRADE TC 20S'S OUTFLOW
LEADING TO A SHARPER WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z,
250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-24 03:00

WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 118.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 118.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 14.6S 117.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 15.0S 117.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 15.2S 116.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 15.2S 115.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 15.5S 114.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 15.6S 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 15.4S 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 118.0E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
333 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 232304Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS) AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BY PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TC 20S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL STEER THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TC
20S IS A SMALL SYSTEM WHICH MAY UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 75 KTS AROUND TAU 36 AND
THEN BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF A TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH CAUSES THE STR
PATTERN TO SHIFT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS
PLACES LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-24 02:54

WTXS51 PGTW 240300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200224024030
2020022400 20S FERDINAND  002  01 225 08 SATL 020
T000 140S 1181E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 146S 1175E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 150S 1170E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 152S 1164E 075 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 152S 1157E 070 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 155S 1146E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 156S 1137E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 154S 1128E 040 R034 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 118.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 118.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 14.6S 117.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 15.0S 117.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 15.2S 116.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 15.2S 115.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 15.5S 114.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 15.6S 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 15.4S 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 118.0E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1187E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
2020022400 140S1181E  40
NNNN

>

2020-02-23 21:21

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 118.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 118.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 14.0S 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.4S 117.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 14.7S 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 14.7S 116.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 15.0S 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 15.2S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 15.2S 113.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 118.6E.
23FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
337 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE EAST. A 231757Z ATMS 88 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM AND SUPPORTS THE POSITIONING OF TC 20S. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS HEDGED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS) BY PGTW, APRF, AND
KNES BASED ON THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, TC 20S HAS A GOOD MOISTURE
SIGNATURE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST IS SERVING AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 20S. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, TC 20S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS A SMALL SYSTEM, THERE IS A HIGH POSSIBILITY
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THIS HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
70 KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER THAT, DECREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 (SPREAD OF 40 NM), BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH AN INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD IN THE LATER
FORECAST PERIOD. NOTABLY, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A TRACK TO
THE NORTH OF THE MAJORITY AFTER TAU 12. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THUS, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY JTWC FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 231000Z).//
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2020-02-23 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 232100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 200223205233
2020022318 20S TWENTY     001  01 180 05 SATL 045
T000 134S 1187E 035 R034 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 140S 1182E 045 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 144S 1177E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 147S 1171E 065 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 147S 1164E 070 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 150S 1151E 065 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 152S 1143E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 152S 1134E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 118.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 118.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 14.0S 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.4S 117.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 14.7S 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 14.7S 116.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 15.0S 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 15.2S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 15.2S 113.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 118.6E.
23FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
2020022212 111S1194E  20
2020022218 115S1193E  20
2020022300 119S1192E  25
2020022306 124S1191E  25
2020022312 129S1187E  30
2020022318 134S1187E  35
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