Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia
25 Feb 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTHER-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (25 Feb 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 58 km/h 0.6 m 94 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 1.6 m 472 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

86 km/h

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia2,352 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 23 Feb 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 24 Feb 2020 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 5 25 Feb 2020 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPapua New Guinea, Australia1,714
+
Papua New Guinea1,457 
Australia257 
100-250 mmPapua New Guinea, Indonesia, Australia157,730
+
Indonesia08 
Papua New Guinea142,490 
Australia15,232 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia1,862,066
+
Indonesia489,532 
Papua New Guinea1,219,069 
Australia153,465 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 00:00 123 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 2 23 Feb 2020 12:00 255 160 thousand
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 209 Few people
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 4 24 Feb 2020 12:00 227 Few people
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 5 25 Feb 2020 00:00 331 160 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 25 Feb 2020 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Feb 2020 02:00 Karumba Australia  0.6
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Bing Bong Australia  0.4
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.3
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Caburinga Village Australia  0.3
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Gove Australia  0.3
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.3
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Yirrkala Australia  0.3
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Kulinchin Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Mapoon Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Cowel Creek Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Seisia Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Bamaga Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Cape York Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 00:15 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 08:00 Alyangula Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 10:45 Eyre Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 10:45 Thundulda Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Hammond I Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Port Kennedy Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Jara Papua New Guinea  0.2
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Mari Papua New Guinea  0.2
25 Feb 2020 09:45 Numbulwar Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 07:30 Pallarenda Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 07:30 Belgian Gardens Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 07:30 Townsville Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 07:30 Oonoonba Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 07:30 Cluden Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 07:30 Oolbun Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Boigu Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Bugi Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 00:00 Dauan Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:30 Mutarnee Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:30 Moongobulla Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:30 Rollingstone Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:30 Kinduro Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Halifax Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Cassady Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 05:30 Mairipepea Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 05:30 Moravamu Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 05:30 Kamaua Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 05:30 Mira Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 05:30 Koravaki Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 05:30 Mariki Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 05:30 Ara'ava Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 05:30 Kinipo Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:45 Lucinda Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Moinamu Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Namaituri Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Goari Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Ubua Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Dopima Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Babai Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Mirimairau Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Uramu I Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Kaivu Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 11:00 Avioua Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 11:00 Veraibari Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 05:45 Aloszville Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 01:15 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 01:15 Saibai Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 07:00 Cooktown Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 04:30 Running Creek Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 04:00 Elava Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 04:00 Kukipi Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 04:00 Malalaua Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 04:00 Terapo Mission Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 04:00 Kapuri Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 04:00 Avihara Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:45 Elim Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 04:00 Iokea Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 04:00 Moru Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Amagoa Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Segero Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Tugara Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Dibiri Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Orapoi Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Oropai Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Gesco Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Tirere Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Dameramuda Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Bina No 1 Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 09:30 Maipani Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Sui Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Mibu Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Iasa Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Ipisia Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Agobara Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Samari Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:30 Oromosapuo Papua New Guinea  0.1