Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia
24 Feb 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTHER-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.6 m (24 Feb 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 86 km/h 1.6 m 209 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 1.6 m 472 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

86 km/h

Up to 3 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia2,949 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 23 Feb 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPapua New Guinea, Australia3,000
+
Papua New Guinea1,721 
Australia1,279 
100-250 mmPapua New Guinea, Indonesia, Australia140,897
+
Indonesia110 
Papua New Guinea132,513 
Australia8,274 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Australia1,852,914
+
Indonesia467,057 
Papua New Guinea1,011,518 
Timor-Leste575 
Australia373,764 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 00:00 123 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 2 23 Feb 2020 12:00 255 160 thousand
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 427 140 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.6m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Karumba Australia  1.6
24 Feb 2020 05:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.8
24 Feb 2020 11:15 Alyangula Australia  0.7
24 Feb 2020 05:30 Kulinchin Australia  0.7
24 Feb 2020 10:45 Numbulwar Australia  0.7
24 Feb 2020 11:45 Bing Bong Australia  0.6
24 Feb 2020 06:00 Mapoon Australia  0.6
24 Feb 2020 11:45 Caburinga Village Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 04:30 Cowel Creek Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 04:45 Seisia Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 04:45 Bamaga Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 05:15 Cape York Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 11:45 Gove Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 11:45 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 11:45 Yirrkala Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Hammond I Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 04:30 Jara Papua New Guinea  0.5
24 Feb 2020 04:30 Mari Papua New Guinea  0.5
24 Feb 2020 00:30 Port Kennedy Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 03:00 Sarire Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 03:00 Tamarike Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 03:15 Matara Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 03:15 Urum Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 03:15 Merauke Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 03:15 Daub Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 03:15 Anansai Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 03:15 Wendu Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 04:15 Kobiem Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 04:15 Okaba Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 04:15 Moegaigare Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 04:15 Alakoe Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 04:15 Alatepi Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 02:00 Komoran Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 01:30 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 00:45 Selemit Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:15 Tor Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:15 Wan Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:15 Konerau Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 09:15 Thundulda Australia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Kladar Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Sabon Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 09:15 Eyre Australia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 02:45 Soeam Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 10:00 Boigu Australia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 10:00 Bugi Papua New Guinea  0.2
24 Feb 2020 10:00 Dauan Australia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 03:00 Halifax Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 03:00 Cassady Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Pallarenda Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Belgian Gardens Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Townsville Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Oonoonba Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Cluden Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Oolbun Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 10:15 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.1
24 Feb 2020 10:45 Saibai Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Aloszville Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Mutarnee Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Moongobulla Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Rollingstone Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Kinduro Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 00:30 Running Creek Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 04:15 Lower Tully Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 04:15 South Mission Beach Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 03:00 Lucinda Australia  0.1