Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for RICK-21 in Mexico on 22 Oct 2021 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21

in Mexico

22 Oct 2021 15 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	FL-2021-000166-VNM
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	740 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	167 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (26 Oct 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 25 Oct 2021 12:00 - 26 Oct 2021 12:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	167 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 560000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	22 Oct 2021 15:00	139	2 million	560 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	22 Oct 2021 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.7, -100.5
1	23 Oct 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	13, -101.3
1	23 Oct 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	13.9, -101.9
1	24 Oct 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.6, -102.3
1	24 Oct 2021 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.3, -102.7
1	25 Oct 2021 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	21000 people	16.2, -103.1
1	25 Oct 2021 12:00	Category 1	139	560000 people	1.4 million people	17.3, -103.5
1	26 Oct 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.1 million people	19.8, -104	Mexico
1	27 Oct 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	22, -104.3	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Michoacan	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico
Colima	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Tecomán	Colima	Mexico	City	75000 people
Armería	Colima	Mexico	City	16000 people
Colima	Colima	Mexico	Major city	130000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Coahuayana		61				0

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Basilio Vadillo	Basilio Vadillo	San Migue	1973

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Apisa, Mexico. This height is estimated for 26 Oct 2021 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (10 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 22 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	26 Oct 2021 01:00	Apisa	Mexico	0.3
	26 Oct 2021 02:00	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	25 Oct 2021 19:00	Maruata	Mexico	0.2
	25 Oct 2021 23:00	San Telmo	Mexico	0.2
	26 Oct 2021 00:00	Cayaca	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2021 04:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2021 04:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.2
	25 Oct 2021 21:00	Bucerias	Mexico	0.1
	26 Oct 2021 03:00	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2021 02:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.