Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 260234
TCDEP2

Remnants Of Rick Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Rick has
dissipated over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico. The
surface low, if one exists, appears to be elongated east-to-west
based on a few weather observations, and there is no organized deep
convection within 150 nmi of the poorly defined center. Therefore,
this will be the final NHC advisory on Rick.

Although the system has dissipated, deep-layer moisture associated
with Rick's remnants will continue to spread northward over
south-central and west-central Mexico. As a result, heavy rainfall
is expected across portions of those areas through at least Tuesday.
These rains may contribute to dangerous flash flooding and
mudslides. For additional information on the heavy rainfall and
flood potential, please consult products issued by your local
weather forecast office.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Rick. For additional information on the heavy rainfall and flooding
potential over Mexico, please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 20.4N 103.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF RICK
12H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 260234
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Rick Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...RICK DISSIPATES OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 103.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Rick were located near
latitude 20.4 North, longitude 103.1 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 25 mph (35 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight and
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Rick will produce up to an additional 1 to 3 inches of
rain across coastal sections of the Mexican state of Michoacan
through tonight. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Rick. For additional information on the heavy rainfall
and flooding potential over Mexico, please consult products from
your local weather forecast office.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 260233
TCMEP2

REMNANTS OF RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
0300 UTC TUE OCT 26 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 103.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 103.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 102.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 103.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RICK.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 252035
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Rick Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Rick has continued to move farther inland over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico. The core of the cyclone collapsed earlier this
afternoon, and what remains of the deep convection near it's
estimated center is gradually dissipating. The strongest convection
now associated with the system is located along the coast, and an
earlier ASCAT overpass showed that the peak winds in those showers
and thunderstorms were only 20 to 25 kt. There are very few surface
observations near where the estimated center of Rick is located.
Therefore, based primarily on the degradation in the satellite
appearance of the cyclone, the initial intensity has been lowered to
30 kt.

Rick's estimated motion is 355/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge to
the east of the depression should keep it on this same general
trajectory farther inland over Mexico into tonight. Therefore,
continued weakening is inevitable. Visible satellite images indicate
that the low-level center of Rick is becoming diffuse. Although the
NHC forecast shows dissipation in 24 h, this may occur much sooner.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 20.0N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 21.5N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 252035
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rick Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...RICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 102.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rick was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 102.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue into tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 24 hours, and Rick is expected to dissipate over the
mountainous terrain of Mexico by tonight or Tuesday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 252035
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
2100 UTC MON OCT 25 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 102.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 102.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 102.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.5N 102.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 102.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 251746
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...RICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 102.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings
for the coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 102.5 West. Rick is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A generally
northward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Rick will move farther inland over
Mexico today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected this afternoon and
evening, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 251600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.10.2021

HURRICANE RICK ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 102.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.10.2021 18.1N 102.1W WEAK
00UTC 26.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.8N 113.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2021 10.8N 113.2W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2021 11.4N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2021 11.4N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2021 11.4N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2021 11.1N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2021 10.6N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2021 10.4N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 10.6N 129.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.10.2021 10.6N 129.8W WEAK
00UTC 29.10.2021 10.3N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2021 9.6N 131.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2021 9.3N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2021 9.2N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.10.2021 9.2N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2021 9.2N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251600

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 251452
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

The center of Rick made landfall a short distance east of Lazaro
Cardenas, Mexico earlier this morning. Since then, visible
satellite images show that the system has continued to move
generally northward over southern Mexico. Assuming that weakening
has occurred after landfall at a rate similar to that given by the
decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is set at 70 kt. Rick
should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, and
although the NHC forecast shows a 24-h point, the global models
suggest that the cyclone could dissipate by that time.

Satellite fixes indicate that Rick is moving just west of due north
at a slightly faster forward speed, or around 350/8 kt. A
low-latitude mid-level ridge to the east of Rick should steer the
cyclone northward to north-northwestward until dissipation occurs
over southwestern Mexico. The official forecast track is based
partly on extrapolation since most of the model trackers lose the
system later today due to dissipation of the low-level circulation.
The updated NHC track forecast is similar to that from the previous
advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 18.6N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 19.7N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 251450
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...RICK INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 102.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 102.2 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Rick will move farther inland over
southern Mexico today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected today while Rick
continues to move over land, and Rick is forecast to dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico tonight or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over
portions of the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning areas for the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is producing significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds in southern Mexico. Near the
coast, the surge is accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 251449
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
1500 UTC MON OCT 25 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 102.2W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 102.2W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.7N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 102.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 251152
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...RICK JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 102.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 102.1 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A north-northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Rick will move farther inland over
southern Mexico today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected today while Rick moves over
land, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain
of southern Mexico tonight or Tuesday.

Rick is a compact tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).
A Mexican Navy observing station in Lazaro Cardenas in the state of
Michoacan recently reported a wind gust to 36 mph (58 km/h) and a
pressure of 997 mb (29.44 inches).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over
portions of the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Tropical
storm conditions will continue through early this afternoon within
portions of the Tropical Storm Warning areas.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is producing significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds in southern Mexico. Near the
coast, the surge is accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ62 KNHC 250956
TCUEP2

Hurricane Rick Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
500 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...RICK MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST EAST OF
LAZARO CARDENAS....

Satellite imagery indicates the center of Rick made landfall along
the coast of southern Mexico about 15 miles (25 km) east of Lazaro
Cardenas, Mexico with an estimated intensity of 105 mph (165 km/h).
The minimum central pressure estimated from earlier reconnaissance
aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 102.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 250840
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Rick's satellite presentation has improved overnight with a warm
spot occasionally evident within the central dense overcast. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that provided two center
penetrations into the hurricane overnight measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 96 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 85-89 kt.
Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to
90 kt. Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum pressure is around
977 mb. With the center now very close to the coast of southern
Mexico, little change in strength is expected before Rick crosses
the coast within the next couple of hours. After landfall,
rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves over the
rugged terrain of southern Mexico, and the circulation is likely to
dissipate within 24-36 hours, if not sooner.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Rick is moving a little
faster just west of due north or 350/7 kt. A low-latitude
mid-level ridge to the east of Rick should steer the cyclone
northward to north-northwestward until dissipation occurs. This
motion will bring the center inland over southern Mexico by later
today. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement although
most of the model trackers lose the system after 12 hours due to
dissipation of the low-level circulation. The updated NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and close to the
TCVN multi-model consensus aid.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to make landfall along the southern coast
Mexico within the next couple of hours, bringing life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds to a portion of the
Hurricane Warning area.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning areas through late today.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.7N 101.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.7N 102.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0600Z 19.8N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SLIGHTLY STRONGER RICK ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ZIHUATANEJO AND LAZARO CARDENAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS
SPREADING ONSHORE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 101.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 101.9 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A north-northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the 12 to 24 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Rick will make landfall on the coast
of Mexico within the hurricane warning area within the next couple
of hours, and then move inland over southern Mexico by later today.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph
(165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is
expected before Rick makes landfall in southern Mexico. After
landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Rick is forecast to
dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico tonight or
Tuesday.

Rick is a compact tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).
A Mexican Navy observing station in Puerto Vicente in the state of
Guerrero reported a wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) within the past
couple of hours.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue to
spread onshore within portions of the Hurricane Warning area this
morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue through early
afternoon within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning areas.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southern Mexico. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 250837
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
0900 UTC MON OCT 25 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 101.9W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 101.9W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.7N 102.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 102.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 101.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250546
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS RICK SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WARNING AREAS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 101.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.2
North, longitude 101.7 West. Rick is moving toward the north near 6
mph (9 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the north or
north-northwest is expected over the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Rick will make landfall on the coast
of Mexico within the hurricane warning area later this morning.

Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph
(155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening
is possible before Rick reaches the coast of Mexico. After
landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Rick is forecast to
dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico tonight or
Tuesday.

Rick is a compact tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). A
Mexican Navy observing station in Puerto Vicente in the state of
Guerrero reported a wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) within the past
several hours.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring within
portions of the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warning areas, and
hurricane conditions are expected within a portion of the Hurricane
Warning area this morning and early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 17E (RICK) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 17E (RICK) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.5N 101.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 101.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.7N 101.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.7N 102.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.6N 102.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250400Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 101.7W.
25OCT21. HURRICANE 17E (RICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1285 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 250248
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Rick's convective organization and inner-core structure have both
continued to improve since the previous advisory. GMI and SSMI/S
passive microwave satellite data at 2245Z and 2310Z, respectively,
revealed that the hurricane had redeveloped a 20-nmi-wide low- and
mid-level closed eye that was surrounded by a solid ring of intense
convection. With better center placement now, satellite intensity
estimates using an embedded center technique indicate that Rick is
just below the T5.0/90-kt intensity classification threshold. Based
on these data, the intensity was increased to 80 kt at 0000 UTC and
has been held at that value at the advisory time due to no
appreciable change in Rick's appearance in infrared satellite
imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
enroute to provide a better assessment of Rick's intensity and
compact wind field structure around 0600 UTC.

The aforementioned GMI and SSMI/S microwave satellite data, compared
to earlier microwave imagery, indicate that Rick's eye/center has
been moving due north over the past 9 hours, or 360/05 kt. The
hurricane is currently located to the right or east of the previous
forecast track and model guidance, and only the new GFS model run
is on the right side of the latest track guidance envelope. The new
NHC track forecast has been nudged a little to the right of the
previous track, but not quite as far east as the northward-moving
GFS model scenario since the bulk of the other track forecasts
still show Rick making a turn toward the north-northwest during the
next 6 hours. The subtropical ridge steering the hurricane is
forecast to remain in place for the next 36 hours, which should
result in Rick making landfall in about 12 h, with the cyclone
dissipating in 36-48 h over the mountainous interior of
south-central or central Mexico.

The deep-layer vertical shear across Rick is forecast to increase
to 15-18 kt in 12 h. However, the shear direction is going to be
from the south, which be along rather across Rick's forward motion,
thus lessening the otherwise adverse effects of the increasing
shear. As a result, some slight strengthening will be possible
until the hurricane makes landfall late Monday morning. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous
advisory, but a 5-kt increase is easily within NHC's statistical
range of intensity forecast skill. After landfall occurs, Rick
should rapidly weaken due to the hurricane's relatively slow
forward motion over the very rugged terrain of south-central and
central Mexico. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising if the hurricane
dissipated sooner than indicated in the official intensity forecast.
However, very heavy rainfall causing dangerous flash flooding and
mudslides will still continue well after Rick dissipates as a
tropical cyclone owing to persistent, moist southerly onshore flow
being lifted by the mountainous topography.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico by late
Monday morning, bringing life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds within a portion of the Hurricane Warning area
from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Rick is expected to continue bringing tropical storm conditions
to portions of the southern coast of Mexico from east of Tecpan de
Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San
Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.8N 101.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.7N 101.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.7N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1200Z 19.6N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250247
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...RICK CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE MEXICAN COAST...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WARNING AREAS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 101.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 101.6 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slightly faster motion
toward the north or north-northwest is expected over the next
day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach
the coast of Mexico through tonight and make landfall on the coast
of Mexico within the hurricane warning area by late Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible as Rick nears the coast of
Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Rick is
forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern
Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.

Rick is a compact tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).
A Mexican Navy observing station in Puerto Vicente in the state of
Guerrero recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
now occurring within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin inside a portion of the Tropical
Storm Warning areas within the next couple of hours.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 250246
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
0300 UTC MON OCT 25 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.6W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.6W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 101.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 101.9W...NEAR MEXICAN COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.7N 102.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.6N 102.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 101.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 242349
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...RICK GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 101.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 18
to 24 hours. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 101.6 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slightly faster motion
toward the north or north-northwest is expected over the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the
coast of Mexico through tonight and make landfall on the coast of
Mexico within the hurricane warning area by late Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible as
Rick nears the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is
expected, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous
terrain of southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
now occurring within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin inside a portion of the Tropical
Storm Warning areas within the next couple of hours.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 242038
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Rick continues to hold its own, with little change in overall
organization over the past 18 to 24 hours. There is still no eye
evident in satellite images, and earlier microwave images revealed
that the eyewall underneath the cirrus canopy is open on the eastern
side. There is a large amount of spread in the various objective
and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates, which range from 60 kt to
90 kt. Since Rick does not look any better or worse than 6 hours
ago, the difference between these estimates is split down the
middle, and the initial advisory intensity remains 75 kt. Based on
data from a 1656 UTC ASCAT-B overpass, winds of tropical storm force
were only 30 n mi from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

A recent ASCAT-B overpass helped to verify the position of the
center of Rick, and the system has been moving a little slower and
to the right of what was previously thought. The initial motion is
therefore set at 360/04 kt. Rick continues to move in the direction
of a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Most of the model guidance
suggest the ridge may begin to fill in slightly to the northeast of
the cyclone as early as tonight, which would cause the hurricane to
turn north-northwestward along with a slight increase in forward
speed. The only notable change to the NHC track forecast was a
slightly slower motion in the short term. Otherwise, the track is
very close to the multimodel consensus solutions.

Rick has been unable to take advantage of the favorable environment
for strengthening over the past 24 hours, and the hurricane is about
out of time to intensify any further. The UW-CIMMS shear analysis
shows 15 to 20 kt of vertical wind shear between Rick and
the coast of Mexico, and 400-700 mb relative humidity of only about
50 percent. Therefore, it is becoming less likely that Rick will
undergo any significant strengthening before landfall. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but remains
on the high end of the guidance. After landfall, the cyclone will
weaken rapidly and the system may dissipate sooner than shown in
this forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico Monday
morning, bringing life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds within a portion of the Hurricane Warning area
from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico beginning within
the next couple of hours from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco,
and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce
flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 16.3N 101.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.1N 101.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 25/1800Z 18.4N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0600Z 19.6N 103.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 242037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...RICK MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 101.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 101.7 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slightly faster motion
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the
coast of Mexico through tonight and make landfall on the coast of
Mexico within the hurricane warning area Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible as Rick nears the
coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected,
and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected within the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin inside a portion of the Tropical Storm
Warning areas within the next couple of hours.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 242037
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
2100 UTC SUN OCT 24 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.7W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.7W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.1N 101.9W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.4N 102.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 103.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 101.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 241748
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...RICK INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 101.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 101.7 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slightly faster motion
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next day or
two. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the
coast of Mexico today and tonight and make landfall on the coast of
Mexico within the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while Rick moves closer to
the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected,
and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 241445
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Rick has changed little in organization since last night, with an
80-100 n mi wide Central Dense Overcast surrounded by some
convective banding features. The intensity estimate is held at 75
kt for this advisory based on a blend of subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with objective ADT numbers from
UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow has become less well-defined over
the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, suggestive of some
south-southeasterly shear.

Center fixes indicate that the hurricane continues its fairly slow
northward motion at around 355/5 kt. Rick should move northward to
north-northwestward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge
over Mexico, and the track guidance shows a slight increase in
forward speed during the next day or so. The global models
show a slight building of a mid-level ridge to the northwest of
Rick in about 36 hours which could cause the track to bend more to
the left after landfall. The official track forecast is very close
to the previous one and is also very close to the latest NOAA
corrected-consensus, HCCA, prediction.

Although Rick has been in a seemingly conducive environment for
strengthening, the hurricane has not intensified much. This
reminds us of our limited understanding of tropical cyclone
intensity change. Nonetheless, since Rick should remain over warm
waters and in a fairly moist mid-level atmospheric environment
before reaching the coast, the official forecast continues to
call for some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. When
the center nears the coast, some increase in southwesterly shear
and the interaction with the mountainous land mass of southern
Mexico could cause some weakening. After landfall, the cyclone
will weaken rapidly and the system may lose its identity sooner
than shown in this forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to strengthen today and reach the coast of
southern Mexico tonight or early Monday, bringing life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds within a portion of
the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San
Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico beginning today
from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning
from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan today, and could persist
through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash
flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.1N 101.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.9N 101.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 18.1N 102.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0000Z 19.2N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1200Z 20.4N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 241444
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...RICK MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 101.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.7 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slightly faster motion
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next day or
two. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the
coast of Mexico today and tonight and make landfall on the coast of
Mexico within the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Monday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while Rick moves closer to
the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected,
and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 241444
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
1500 UTC SUN OCT 24 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 101.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 101.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 101.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.1N 102.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 103.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.4N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 101.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 241138
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...RICK EXPECTED TO BRING FLOODING RAINFALL, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
BEGINNING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 101.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 101.7 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slightly faster motion
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next day or
two. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the
coast of Mexico today and tonight and make landfall on the coast of
Mexico within the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while Rick moves closer to
the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected,
and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 240839 CCA
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Corrected typo in the first Key Message

The overall satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed
much overnight. Rick's center is embedded within a small central
dense overcast, and an earlier SSMIS microwave overpass suggests
that the small eye was slightly better defined. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Rick overnight has found
that the hurricane has not strengthened since the mission yesterday
afternoon. Although the aircraft did not measure flight-level winds
as strong as during the previous mission, a dropsonde released in
the southwestern eyewall measure mean winds in the lowest 150 m that
still support an intensity of 75 kt. The aircraft reported that the
minimum pressure is around 980 mb, which is close to the pressure
reported yesterday afternoon.

It is surprising that Rick has not intensified over the past 6-12
hours as the hurricane remains in a low shear environment and the
outflow is well established. Given the expected favorable
upper-level wind pattern and warm sea surface temperatures along the
track of Rick, strengthening is forecast to resume today. Since
Rick has not strengthened as much as expected and it only has about
12-18 hours before southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over
the storm, the updated intensity forecast calls for a lower peak
intensity than before and is at the high end of the guidance
envelope. As Rick approaches the coast of southern Mexico tonight,
the aforementioned increase in southwesterly shear and land
interaction could case some weakening. After landfall, rapid
weakening will occur as the cyclone moves over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico, and Rick is expected to dissipate Monday night or
Tuesday.

The overnight aircraft fixes were a little east of the earlier
satellite-based position estimates, yielding a more northward
long-term motion estimate of 355/3 kt. Rick is forecast to move
northward or north-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over Mexico. This motion
should bring the center of the hurricane to the coast of southern
Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight or early Monday,
and inland over southern or southwestern Mexico on Monday. The
dynamical models are in relatively good agreement on this scenario,
and the official forecast lies near the various consensus aids. The
new track forecast is a little right of the previous advisory due to
the more eastward initial position.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to strengthen today and reach the coast of
southern Mexico tonight or early Monday, bringing life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds within a portion of
the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San
Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico beginning today
from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning
from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan today, and could persist
through Monday night. This rainfall will likely produce flash
flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.6N 101.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.2N 101.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.2N 102.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.4N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/0600Z 20.2N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 240834
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

The overall satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed
much overnight. Rick's center is embedded within a small central
dense overcast, and an earlier SSMIS microwave overpass suggests
that the small eye was slightly better defined. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Rick overnight has found
that the hurricane has not strengthened since the mission yesterday
afternoon. Although the aircraft did not measure flight-level winds
as strong as during the previous mission, a dropsonde released in
the southwestern eyewall measure mean winds in the lowest 150 m that
still support an intensity of 75 kt. The aircraft reported that the
minimum pressure is around 980 mb, which is close to the pressure
reported yesterday afternoon.

It is surprising that Rick has not intensified over the past 6-12
hours as the hurricane remains in a low shear environment and the
outflow is well established. Given the expected favorable
upper-level wind pattern and warm sea surface temperatures along the
track of Rick, strengthening is forecast to resume today. Since
Rick has not strengthened as much as expected and it only has about
12-18 hours before southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over
the storm, the updated intensity forecast calls for a lower peak
intensity than before and is at the high end of the guidance
envelope. As Rick approaches the coast of southern Mexico tonight,
the aforementioned increase in southwesterly shear and land
interaction could case some weakening. After landfall, rapid
weakening will occur as the cyclone moves over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico, and Rick is expected to dissipate Monday night or
Tuesday.

The overnight aircraft fixes were a little east of the earlier
satellite-based position estimates, yielding a more northward
long-term motion estimate of 355/3 kt. Rick is forecast to move
northward or north-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over Mexico. This motion
should bring the center of the hurricane to the coast of southern
Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight or early Monday,
and inland over southern or southwestern Mexico on Monday. The
dynamical models are in relatively good agreement on this scenario,
and the official forecast lies near the various consensus aids. The
new track forecast is a little right of the previous advisory due to
the more eastward initial position.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to strength today and reach the coast of
southern Mexico tonight or early Monday, bringing life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds within a portion of
the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San
Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico beginning today
from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning
from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan today, and could persist
through Monday night. This rainfall will likely produce flash
flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.6N 101.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.2N 101.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.2N 102.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.4N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/0600Z 20.2N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 240833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...RICK INCHING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING FLOODING RAINFALL, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE,
AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 101.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 101.7 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slightly faster motion
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next day
or two. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the
coast of Mexico today and tonight and make landfall on the coast
of Mexico within the hurricane warning area late tonight or on
Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while Rick moves
closer to the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is
expected, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous
terrain of southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 240833
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
0900 UTC SUN OCT 24 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 101.7W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 101.7W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 101.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.2N 102.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.4N 102.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.2N 103.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 101.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 240558
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RICK...
...HURRICANE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 101.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
15.3 North, longitude 101.8 West. Rick is moving toward the
north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the
north-northwest or north is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the coast of
Mexico today and tonight, and make landfall on the coast of Mexico
late tonight or on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected and Rick is forecast to become a
major hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 240239
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Rick appears to have stopped strengthening for the moment. The eye
seen earlier in visible imagery has disappeared, and recent
microwave imagery shows that the eyewall located under the central
dense overcast has become less organized. There is an unusually
large spread of satellite intensity estimates from 60-90 kt, and
based on the satellite trends since the earlier reconnaissance
aircraft left the storm, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt.
Since Rick is in a low shear environment and has excellent cirrus
outflow, it is unclear why the system has stopped intensifying.

Rick has slowed its forward motion a little and is now moving 340/4
kt. The hurricane is expected to move slowly north-northwestward to
northward during the next couple of days as it moves through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge extending westward from Mexico.
There has been little change in the forecast guidance since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track is basically the same as the
previous forecast through 36 h. After that, the new track is a
little of the west of the previous track. On the forecast track,
the center of Rick will make landfall along the coast of Mexico near
or just after the 36 h point, then move farther inland over Mexico
during the subsequent 24 h.

Rick is expected to remain in a favorable environment of light
shear and warm sea surface temperatures for the next 18-24 h. Based
on this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification to
begin again in the next few hours and for Rick to reach major
hurricane strength in about 24 h. After that, some weakening could
occur before landfall due to increasing shear and land interaction
with the coastal mountains of Mexico. Rick should rapidly weaken
after landfall, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over
Mexico by 72 h. Before landfall, the new intensity forecast is at
the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 15.3N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.9N 102.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 26/0000Z 19.3N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1200Z 20.8N 104.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 240238
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...RICK MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 102.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 102.0 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night, and make
landfall on the coast of Mexico late Sunday night or on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. While Rick has strengthened little during the past several
hours, it is expected to strengthen tonight and become a major
hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 240237
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
0300 UTC SUN OCT 24 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.0W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.0W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 102.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.3N 103.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.8N 104.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 102.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 232338
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...RICK FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 102.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 102.1 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. While Rick has strengthened little during the past few
hours, it is expected to resume strengthening tonight and become a
major hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 232054
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Rick continued to strengthen through the late morning, with a brief
appearance of an eye in visible satellite images. Over the past few
hours the eye has become less apparent, and the Central Dense
Overcast (CDO) has become a bit elongated. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated the hurricane late this
afternoon and was able to provide beneficial data regarding Rick's
structure and intensity. During the flight, the aircraft measured
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 80 kt (which reduce to 72 kt at
the surface), and SFMR surface winds of 81 kt a little earlier in
the flight. A blend of these values suggests the initial advisory
intensity is 75 kt, which agrees well with unanimous 77-kt Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The
aircraft also confirmed that the core of Rick is compact, with
tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 50 n mi from the
center. However, earlier scatterometer data sampled winds to near
tropical storm force in the large curved band that wraps around much
of the hurricane's center at a distance of 100 to 150 n mi.

Rick has jogged west-northwest over the past couple hours, but the
12 h motion is about 335/05 kt. There is no change to the forecast
track reasoning. Rick is expected to resume a motion between
north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days.
The track model guidance has come into better agreement, and the
only notable change to the NHC forecast track was during the first
12 h to adjust for the recent left-of-track motion.

The environment of sea-surface temperatures near 30 degrees C and
very low shear should support a fast pace of strengthening over the
next day or so. The only factor that could inhibit the pace of
intensification is the presence of a dry moat between the CDO and
outer band, and some of this dry air could get drawn into the core
of Rick. However, based on the other favorable factors, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for continued strengthening through Sunday
morning. As the hurricane nears the coast in 36 h, dry air and
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear may weaken the cyclone.
The latest NHC intensity forecast still calls for Rick to reach
major hurricane intensity on Sunday, despite the recent pause in
strengthening. This forecast remains on the high end of the
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.1N 101.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.5N 102.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.6N 102.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 25/1800Z 18.9N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/0600Z 20.3N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 232052
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT RICK'S PACE OF
STRENGTHENING HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT...
...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 101.8 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rick is expected to resume strengthening by tonight
and become a major hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft
observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 232050
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
2100 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.8W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.8W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 102.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 102.3W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 102.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.3N 103.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 101.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 231757
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RICK...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 101.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 101.8 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (135 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Rick is expected to become a major hurricane on
Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding
and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 231530 CCA
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Corrected to show dissipated at 27/1200Z

Rick continues to quickly become better organized on satellite
images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast surrounded by a
well-defined convective band wrapping almost completely around the
circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were 65 kt at around 1200 UTC and with the steady strengthening
trend underway, the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt.
Upper-outflow is prominent over all quadrants of the cyclone. An
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Rick later today to provide additional intensity and
structure information.

Latest high-resolution visible satellite images indicate that the
hurricane is moving a little faster toward the north-northwest, or
at about 345/6 kt. Rick is expected to move between
north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days.
There continues to be significant spread in the track guidance
models with the GFS being the easternmost and fastest, taking
Rick on a mainly northward track. The ECMWF is slower and farther
west, and some other models are even slower and farther west over
southwestern Mexico or just off the coast. The official track
forecast is, again, shifted somewhat to the east of the previous
one and generally follows the HCCA consensus prediction.

As noted earlier, the atmospheric and oceanic environment for Rick
appears to be very conducive for intensification during the next
24-36 hours, with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and high
oceanic heat content. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index
continues to show a high probability of Rapid Intensification into
Sunday, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast,
which is near the upper end of the guidance. In 36 to 48 hours,
increasing shear and drier air could cause the strengthening trend
to end or even result in some weakening.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the southwest
coast of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo. There is larger-than-normal
uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of
hazardous conditions within the watch area could change
significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.7N 101.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST
60H 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 231528 CCA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021

CORRECTED TO SHOW DISSIPATED AT 27/1200Z

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO...AND
WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 101.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 231446
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Rick continues to quickly become better organized on satellite
images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast surrounded by a
well-defined convective band wrapping almost completely around the
circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were 65 kt at around 1200 UTC and with the steady strengthening
trend underway, the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt.
Upper-outflow is prominent over all quadrants of the cyclone. An
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Rick later today to provide additional intensity and
structure information.

Latest high-resolution visible satellite images indicate that the
hurricane is moving a little faster toward the north-northwest, or
at about 345/6 kt. Rick is expected to move between
north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days.
There continues to be significant spread in the track guidance
models with the GFS being the easternmost and fastest, taking
Rick on a mainly northward track. The ECMWF is slower and farther
west, and some other models are even slower and farther west over
southwestern Mexico or just off the coast. The official track
forecast is, again, shifted somewhat to the east of the previous
one and generally follows the HCCA consensus prediction.

As noted earlier, the atmospheric and oceanic environment for Rick
appears to be very conducive for intensification during the next
24-36 hours, with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and high
oceanic heat content. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index
continues to show a high probability of Rapid Intensification into
Sunday, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast,
which is near the upper end of the guidance. In 36 to 48 hours,
increasing shear and drier air could cause the strengthening trend
to end or even result in some weakening.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the southwest
coast of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo. There is larger-than-normal
uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of
hazardous conditions within the watch area could change
significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.7N 101.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST
60H 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 231446
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. The
government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and
west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 101.5 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Rick is expected to become a major hurricane on
Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding
and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 231445
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO...AND
WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 101.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 231146
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...RICK BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 101.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 101.5 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Rick is
expected to become a major hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 230847
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Rick Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

The satellite presentation of Rick has continued to improve
overnight. The center is embedded within a fairly symmetric and
expanding central dense overcast, and there is evidence of outer
banding features. There has been no recent microwave imagery
to examine the inner core structure, but given the recent satellite
appearance and the earlier microwave data, it is likely that the
inner core has become better defined. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers
supported an intensity of 55 kt at 0600 UTC, and given the
continued improvement in organization, the advisory intensity has
been set at 60 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Rick this afternoon and should provide a
better assessment of the storm's strength and structure.

Rick has been intensifying quickly since it developed yesterday
morning, and environmental conditions consisting of very low
vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist
low- to mid-level atmosphere are expected to continue to support
rapid strengthening during the next day or so. The SHIPS rapid
intensification index is showing a greater than 90 percent chance
of rapid strengthening over the next 24 hours, and also indicates a
better than 80 percent chance of a 45 kt increase in intensity over
the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance the NHC intensity
forecast calls for rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36
hours, and the official forecast shows Rick reaching major
hurricane status within 36 hours. This is near the higher end of
the intensity guidance envelope, but is not as high as the HFIP
corrected consensus aid. Increasing shear after that time and the
possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle could cause some
fluctuations in intensity before Rick reaches the coast of Mexico.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Rick is likely to
dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico in 72 to 96 hours.

Rick has turned north-northwestward or 330/5 kt. A slow
north-northwestward to northward track is expected around the
western side of a mid-level ridge centered of the Caribbean.
Although the guidance agrees on that general steering flow, there
are still significant difference regarding the location and timing
of landfall in southern or southwestern Mexico. The GFS, Canadian,
and HWRF are along the eastern edge of the track model envelope
while the ECMWF, UKMET, and CTCI models are along the western side.
The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the
previous advisory but remains close to the various consensus aids.
It should be noted that the global model ensembles suggest a
stronger cyclone is likely to track more eastward. Therefore the
official forecast has been nudged in that direction and it is
possible future eastward adjustments could be required.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has extended
both the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches farther eastward.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for
portions of the watch areas later this morning.

Key Messages:

1. Rick is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are possible within the Hurricane Watch area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo. There is larger-than-normal
uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of
hazardous conditions within the watch area could change
significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early as Sunday from
east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning
from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting tonight, and
could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 101.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.6N 101.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 16.0N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 17.0N 102.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 18.5N 103.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/0600Z 20.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0600Z 25.0N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230846
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...RICK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 101.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch eastward
to Tecpan de Galeana and has also extended the Tropical Storm
Watch eastward to Acapulco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 101.4 West. Rick is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast through
Sunday. Rick is expected to become a hurricane today, and it
is forecast to become a major hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 230844
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
0900 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH EASTWARD
TO TECPAN DE GALEANA AND HAS ALSO EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH EASTWARD TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 101.4W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 101.4W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 101.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 101.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 102.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 102.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 103.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.5N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.0N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 101.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230546
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
100 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...RICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 101.3W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 101.3 West. Rick is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn to the
north-northwest is expected to begin later today or tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the coast
of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast through Sunday,
and Rick is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting
Saturday night. This will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 230402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.10.2021

TROPICAL STORM RICK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 100.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.10.2021 13.3N 100.9W WEAK
12UTC 23.10.2021 14.5N 101.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2021 15.0N 102.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2021 15.5N 102.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2021 16.0N 102.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2021 16.6N 103.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2021 17.7N 104.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2021 18.6N 104.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230402

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (RICK) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RICK) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 101.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 101.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.0N 101.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.8N 102.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.5N 102.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.4N 102.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.7N 103.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.4N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 24.0N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 101.4W.
23OCT21. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1459 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 230248
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Rick Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Rick is strengthening.
Conventional satellite imagery shows that a central dense overcast
has formed, and recently received SSM/IS data indicates that a small
convective ring or developing eyewall is present under the overcast.
Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are
in the 40-45 kt range, and given the structure seen in the microwave
imagery the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt. The
cyclone currently has excellent upper-level outflow, with apparent
multiple outflow channels to the north and the south.

The initial motion is now 295/5 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to
the north of Rick is weakening as a deep-layer trough moves into the
western United States, which will leave Rick on the west side of a
low-latitude ridge. This evolution should allow the storm to turn
more northward during the next 24-36 h. However, there continues to
be significant track spread between the right-side GFS, which has an
almost immediate northward motion, and the left-side ECMWF/UKMET,
which forecast a much later northward turn. The new track forecast
splits the difference between these extremes and follows the
consensus models near the center of the guidance envelope. This
results in a forecast landfall in Mexico in just over 60 h. However,
because of the spread, there is low confidence in the exact time of
landfall, and landfall would occur earlier if Rick follows the GFS
track.

For the next 36 h, Rick is expected to be in an area of light
vertical shear, strong upper-level divergence, and warm sea surface
temperatures. This, combined with the structure seen in microwave
imagery, suggests rapid strengthening is likely, and the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification indices support this. One possible issue is that
tongues of dry air may try to entrain into the core, which could
slow the development rate. After 36 h, increasing shear and a drier
air mass should stop intensification, with the intensity guidance
suggesting some weakening before the system makes landfall in
Mexico. Rapid weakening should occur over the mountains of Mexico
after landfall. The new intensity forecast has higher intensities
over the previous forecast and now calls for Rick to reach a peak
intensity of 90 kt, which could be conservative. The new forecast
is along the upper edge of the intensity guidance until landfall,
and it is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the southwest
coast of Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening
storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo. There is
larger-than-normal uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and
the arrival time of hazardous conditions within the watch area could
change significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of
Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana, and by Monday morning from west of
Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday
Night, and could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will
likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 13.4N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.0N 101.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.8N 102.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.5N 102.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.4N 102.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 17.7N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 19.4N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 24.0N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230241
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...RICK EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 101.3W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 101.3 West. Rick is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to
the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward
motion beginning by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Rick will approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and
Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast through Sunday,
and Rick is expected to become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting
Saturday night. This will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico beginning by late Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 230241
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
0300 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 101.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 101.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.8N 102.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 102.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.4N 102.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 103.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.4N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 24.0N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 101.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 222338
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...RICK STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 101.3W
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required tonight or tomorrow morning for portions of the current
watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 101.3 West. Rick is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to
the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward
motion beginning by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
system would be approaching the coast of southwestern Mexico late
this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Rick
is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick will produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated
storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday
night. This will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico beginning by late Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (RICK) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RICK) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 100.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 100.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.7N 101.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.6N 102.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.3N 102.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.1N 102.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.1N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.3N 103.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.2N 103.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 101.1W.
22OCT21. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1484 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 222101
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Rick Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

A curved band of deep convection has wrapped roughly halfway around
and over the estimated center of the cyclone over the past several
hours, and a central dense overcast may be trying to form. Outflow
has been expanding in all directions, indicative of a low-shear
environment. Although there were two recent ASCAT overpasses over
the cyclone, the higher magnitude vectors were likely rain
inflated. Thus, the initial intensity of the system is based on the
latest Dvorak intensity estimates of 35 kt from both TAFB and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, making Rick the seventeenth named storm of the 2021
eastern Pacific basin hurricane season.

Rick has slowed its forward motion and is now moving
west-northwestward at 6 kt. A ridge to the north of the storm is
forecast to weaken tonight as a deep-layer trough digs southeastward
toward the western United States. Rick is expected to turn
northwestward tonight then north-northwestward by Saturday night
towards this weakness. The model guidance is still having a
difficult time agreeing upon how abrupt of a right turn that the
cyclone will make this weekend, with the GFS consistently showing a
northward motion by tonight, and much of the other guidance
indicating the northwest then north-northwest motion over the next
few days. The NHC track forecast was nudged a little to the right of
the previous one due to an overall slight shift to the right in the
guidance, and lies in between the NOAA corrected consensus HCCA,
and FSU Superensemble solutions. It should be noted that the model
spread between the right-outlier GFS and left-outlier ECMWF models
is about 175 n mi at 48 h. Therefore, the track forecast remains of
low confidence.

There is little change to the intensity forecast reasoning. The
storm is expected to be within an ideal environment for
strengthening over the next couple of days, with very little
vertical wind shear, a moist airmass, and sea surface temperatures
near 30 degrees C. Therefore, steady intensification is indicated by
all of the model guidance through 48 h. There is some weakening
indicated by the models just before the time the system would be
nearing the coast of Mexico, which could be due to some dry air
entraining into the cyclone's circulation. The NHC intensity remains
near the IVCN consensus solution through 72 h and below HCCA. Beyond
landfall, the intensity forecast is near the Decay-SHIPS prediction.
The NHC intensity forecast also calls for a 24-h period of rapid
intensification, which seems reasonable given the environment, the
model agreement, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance that
now indicates a greater than 60 percent chance of a 45-kt increase
in strength over the next 36 h, and 55 kt over the next 48 h.

Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the southwest
coast of Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening
storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo. There is
larger-than-normal uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and
the arrival time of hazardous conditions within the watch area could
change significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of
Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana, and by Monday morning from west of
Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday
Night, and could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will
likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.1N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.7N 101.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.6N 102.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 15.3N 102.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.3N 103.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 26/1800Z 23.2N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 222057
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Rick Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

A curved band of deep convection has wrapped roughly halfway around
and over the estimated center of the cyclone over the past several
hours, and a central dense overcast may be trying to form. Outflow
has been expanding in all directions, indicative of a low-shear
environment. Although there were two recent ASCAT overpasses over
the cyclone, the higher magnitude vectors were likely rain
inflated. Thus, the initial intensity of the system is based on the
latest Dvorak intensity estimates of 35 kt from both TAFB and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, making Rick the seventeenth named storm of the 2021
eastern Pacific basin hurricane season.

Rick has slowed its forward motion and is now moving
west-northwestward at 6 kt. A ridge to the north of the storm is
forecast to weaken tonight as a deep-layer trough digs southeastward
toward the western United States. Rick is expected to turn
northwestward tonight then north-northwestward by Saturday night
towards this weakness. The model guidance is still having a
difficult time agreeing upon how abrupt of a right turn that the
cyclone will make this weekend, with the GFS consistently showing a
northward motion by tonight, and much of the other guidance
indicating the northwest then north-northwest motion over the next
few days. The NHC track forecast was nudged a little to the right of
the previous one due to an overall slight shift to the right in the
guidance, and lies in between the NOAA corrected consensus HCCA,
and FSU Superensemble solutions. It should be noted that the model
spread between the right-outlier GFS and left-outlier ECMWF models
is about 175 n mi at 48 h. Therefore, the track forecast remains of
low confidence.

There is little change to the intensity forecast reasoning. The
storm is expected to be within an ideal environment for
strengthening over the next couple of days, with very little
vertical wind shear, a moist airmass, and sea surface temperatures
near 30 degrees C. Therefore, steady intensification is indicated by
all of the model guidance through 48 h. There is some weakening
indicated by the models just before the time the system would be
nearing the coast of Mexico, which could be due to some dry air
entraining into the cyclone's circulation. The NHC intensity remains
near the IVCN consensus solution through 72 h and below HCCA. Beyond
landfall, the intensity forecast is near the Decay-SHIPS prediction.
The NHC intensity forecast also calls for a 24-h period of rapid
intensification, which seems reasonable given the environment, the
model agreement, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance that
now indicates a greater than 60 percent chance of a 45-kt increase
in strength over the next 36 h, and 55 kt over the next 48 h.

1. Rick is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the southwest
coast of Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening
storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo. There is
larger-than-normal uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and
the arrival time of hazardous conditions within the watch area could
change significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of
Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana, and by Monday morning from west of
Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday
Night, and could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will
likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.1N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.7N 101.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.6N 102.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 15.3N 102.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.3N 103.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 26/1800Z 23.2N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 222056
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM RICK...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 101.0W
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for portions
of the southwestern coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Punta San
Telmo, and a Tropical Storm Watch from east of Zihuatanejo to
Tecpan de Galeana and from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required tonight or tomorrow morning for portions of the current
watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 101.0 West. Rick is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to
the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a
north-northwestward motion beginning by Saturday night. On the
forecast track, the system would be approaching the coast of
southwestern Mexico late this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Rick
is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick will produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated
storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday
night. This will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico beginning by late Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 222055
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
2100 UTC FRI OCT 22 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO
TECPAN DE GALEANA AND FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 101.0W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 101.0W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 100.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.7N 101.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 102.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 102.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.3N 103.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 23.2N 103.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 101.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 221457
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

Over the past 24 h, the convective organization has steadily
increased in association with the area of low pressure to the
southwest of southern Mexico. Overnight, an ASCAT overpass showed
that the system still lacked a well-defined low-level center.
However, since that time visible satellite imagery reveals that the
disturbance has become much better organized and that a tropical
cyclone has formed. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB were T-2.0/30 kt, and therefore
30 kt is the initial advisory intensity.

The tropical depression is moving 280/9 kt to the south of a
mid-tropospheric ridge. A deep-layer trough is forecast to dig
southeastward toward the western United States this weekend and
early next week, which should create a weakness in the ridge to the
north of the cyclone. This would cause the depression to slow its
forward motion and turn northwest or north-northwest towards this
weakness. There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance
beyond 24 h, as the various models have different solutions as to
how abrupt of a turn to the right the cyclone will make in response
to the change in the steering flow. The NHC track forecast is near
the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA, and the TVCE guidance. Based on
the current NHC forecast track, the cyclone would be nearing the
coast of southwestern Mexico in 72 h, and inland by 96 h. However,
due to the larger-than-normal model spread beyond 24 h, that
portion of the forecast track is not particularly of high
confidence.

The cyclone is expected to be within an ideal environment for
strengthening over the next couple of days, with very little
vertical wind shear, a moist airmass, and sea surface temperatures
near 30 degrees C. Therefore, steady intensification is indicated by
all of the model guidance through 60 h. There is some weakening
indicated by the models at 72 h, around the time the system would be
nearing the coast of Mexico, which could be due to some dry air
entraining into the cyclone's circulation. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the IVCN consensus solution through 72 h but below
HCCA. Beyond landfall, the intensity forecast is near the
Decay-SHIPS prediction. It should be noted that the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification guidance indicates a greater than 60 percent chance
of a 55-kt increase in strength over the next 60 h and 65 kt over
the next 72 h.

Based on the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii, Tropical
Storm or Hurricane Watches may be issued for a portion of the
southwestern Mexico coast as early as tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 12.7N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.0N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 13.9N 101.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 14.6N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 15.3N 102.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 16.2N 103.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 17.3N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 19.8N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 27/1200Z 22.0N 104.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 221453
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 100.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen-E was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 100.5
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h). A slowing of forward speed followed by a turn to the
northwest is expected by tonight. A turn to the north-northwest
should occur late this weekend. On the forecast track, the system
would be approaching the coast of southwestern Mexico early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm by tonight, and a hurricane over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Tropical Depression Seventeen will produce 5 to 10 inches
of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and
Colima starting Saturday night. This will likely produce flash
flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 221453
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
1500 UTC FRI OCT 22 2021

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 100.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 100.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.0N 101.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.9N 101.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 102.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.3N 102.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.2N 103.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.3N 103.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.8N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 104.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 100.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



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