Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for USAGI-24
in Philippines, Taiwan

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone USAGI-24 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001126
Name USAGI-24
From - To 11 Nov - 15 Nov
Exposed countries Philippines, Taiwan
Exposed population 1.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 241 km/h Category 4
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (14 Nov 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Philippines)

GDACS Score

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Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 130 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 274 km/h 0.9 m 952 mm 2.5
GFS 187 km/h 1.1 m 401 mm 1.5
ECMWF 216 km/h 0.9 m 657 mm 2.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Philippines, Taiwan, Japan - Tropical cyclone USAGI (ECHO 15 Nov 2024)Wed, 13 Nov 2024 11:21

  • A new tropical cyclone named USAGI ("Ofel" in the Philippines) formed over the North Pacific Ocean on 9 November and started moving west over the Philippine Sea toward the far northern Luzon island, northern Philippines and southern Taiwan, strengthening. On 13 November at 6.00 UTC its centre was located over the sea, approximately 640 km south-east of the Babuyan islands, northern Philippines, with maximum sustained winds of 139 km/h (typhoon).
  • USAGI is expected to continue northwestward over the Philippine Sea and to pass over the far northern Luzon, the Babuyan islands and the nearby Batanes islands, northern Philippines, close to southern Taiawan on 14-15 November as a typhoon, with maximum sustained winds up to 185 km/h (typhoon).
  • Very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over northern Luzon, the Babuyan islands, the Batanes islands, most of Taiwan, and the Ryukyu islands, far southern Japan over 14-17 November.
Philippines, Taiwan, Japan - Tropical cyclone USAGI, update (ECHO 15 Nov 2024)Thu, 14 Nov 2024 12:06

  • Tropical cyclone USAGI ("Ofel" in the Philippines) is approaching the coasts of north-eastern Luzon, and on 14 November at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 50 km east-northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan valley region with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (typhoon) with gusts up to 240 km/h.
  • Its impact combined with the passage of TORAJI resulted in two injured people, more than 46,000 displaced and about 310,000 affected people, as reported by national authorities on 14 November.
  • USAGI is expected to move northwestward and then northward, it will cross Babuyan and Batanes on 15 November and it will pass close to the southern coast of Taiwan on 16 November as a typhoon with winds up to 130 km/h. After that, it will continue over the western Philippine sea passing close to the eastern coast of Taiwan as a tropical storm.
  • Very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over northern Luzon, the Babuyan islands, the Batanes islands, most of Taiwan and southern Ryukyu islands, southern Japan over 15-17 November.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Pepito now a typhoon, Ofel weakens into severe tropical storm 11/15/2024 3:02:00 AM.

Severe Tropical Storm Pepito intensified into a typhoon on Friday morning ahead of its expected landfall, according to state weather bureau PAGASA. Meanwhile, PAGASA said Typhoon Ofel weakened into a severe tropical storm. “TROPICAL CYCLONE
...(more)
Usagi now a super typhoon 11/14/2024 1:14:00 PM.

TYPHOON USAGI (Local name: Ofel) has intensified into a super typhoon as it is forecast to make landfall over Cagayan or northern Isabela on Thursday afternoon, the state weather bureau announced on Thursday morning. In an 11 a.m. weather a
...(more)
Parts of Cagayan at Signal No. 4 as Ofel reaches Babuyan Islands 11/14/2024 1:13:00 PM.

Several areas in northeastern Luzon are at Signal No.4 as Typhoon Ofel (USAGI) continues to move west northwestward over the Babuyan Islands. According to PAGASA’s 8 p.m. cyclone bulletin, the center of the typhoon’s eye was last observed o
...(more)
Philippines, Taiwan, Japan - Tropical cyclone USAGI (GDACS, JTWC, PAGA.. 11/14/2024 1:05:00 PM.

Tropical cyclone USAGI ("Ofel" in the Philippines) is approaching the coasts of north-eastern Luzon, and on 14 November at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 50 km east-northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan valley region with ma
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),