Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for USAGI-24 in Philippines, Taiwan from 11 Nov 2024 00:00 UTC to 15 Nov 2024 00:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 150448

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 150300 UTC, TYPHOON USAGI (2425) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO
POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 150300
WARNING 150300.
WARNING VALID 160300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) 985 HPA
AT 20.7N 120.2E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 21.8N 119.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 22.3N 120.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 20.7N 120.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 151500UTC 21.8N 119.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 160300UTC 22.3N 120.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170000UTC 22.6N 121.1E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 180000UTC 23.0N 121.7E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS USAGI IS LOCATED AT 20.0N, 120.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 150148

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 150000 UTC, TYPHOON USAGI (2425) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO
POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) 985 HPA
AT 20.0N 120.3E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 21.6N 119.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 22.3N 120.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 22.6N 121.1E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 23.0N 121.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 20.0N 120.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 151200UTC 21.6N 119.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 160000UTC 22.3N 120.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170000UTC 22.6N 121.1E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 180000UTC 23.0N 121.7E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 142248

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 142100 UTC, TYPHOON USAGI (2425) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE TWO ZERO
POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 142100
WARNING 142100.
WARNING VALID 152100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) 985 HPA
AT 19.8N 120.6E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 21.3N 119.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 22.2N 120.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 19.8N 120.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 150900UTC 21.3N 119.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 152100UTC 22.2N 120.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 161800UTC 22.4N 121.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 171800UTC 22.9N 121.8E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS USAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.3N, 120.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN
ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) 985 HPA
AT 19.3N 120.9E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 21.1N 119.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 22.0N 120.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 22.4N 121.0E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 22.9N 121.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 19.3N 120.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 150600UTC 21.1N 119.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 151800UTC 22.0N 120.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 161800UTC 22.4N 121.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 171800UTC 22.9N 121.8E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 141648

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 141500 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON USAGI (2425) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (123.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC
TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (127.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 18.8N 121.3E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 20.7N 119.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 21.6N 119.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2425 USAGI (2425) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 18.8N 121.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 150300UTC 20.7N 119.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 151500UTC 21.6N 119.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 22.1N 120.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 171200UTC 22.5N 121.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 181200UTC 22.8N 121.8E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 141348

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 141200 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON USAGI (2425) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC
TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (26.3 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (126.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY USAGI IS LOCATED AT 18.7N, 121.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN
ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 980 HPA
AT 18.7N 121.5E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 20.4N 119.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 21.4N 119.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 22.1N 120.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 22.5N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 22.8N 121.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 18.7N 121.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 150000UTC 20.4N 119.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 151200UTC 21.4N 119.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 161200UTC 22.1N 120.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 171200UTC 22.5N 121.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 181200UTC 22.8N 121.8E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 970 HPA
AT 18.3N 121.9E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 20.0N 120.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 21.2N 119.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 18.3N 121.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 142100UTC 20.0N 120.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 150900UTC 21.2N 119.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 160600UTC 22.3N 120.5E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 170600UTC 22.8N 121.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 180600UTC 23.1N 122.3E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140748

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON USAGI (2425) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (128.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.=

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY USAGI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 17.8N, 122.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
960HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 960 HPA
AT 17.8N 122.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 19.6N 120.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 21.0N 119.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 22.3N 120.5E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 22.8N 121.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 23.1N 122.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 17.8N 122.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 141800UTC 19.6N 120.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 150600UTC 21.0N 119.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 160600UTC 22.3N 120.5E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 170600UTC 22.8N 121.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 180600UTC 23.1N 122.3E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140448

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140300 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON USAGI (2425) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 105 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (128.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.=

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 140300
WARNING 140300.
WARNING VALID 150300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 940 HPA
AT 17.5N 122.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 19.1N 120.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 20.6N 120.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 17.5N 122.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 141500UTC 19.1N 120.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 150300UTC 20.6N 120.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 160000UTC 22.2N 120.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 170000UTC 22.7N 121.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 180000UTC 22.9N 121.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 190000UTC 23.0N 122.2E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 241114014935
2024111400 27W USAGI 013 03 305 12 SATL SYNP 010
T000 172N 1231E 130 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 188N 1215E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 202N 1206E 095 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 211N 1206E 085 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 219N 1210E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 225N 1215E 060 R050 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 228N 1218E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 231N 1222E 045 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 013
1. SUPER TYPHOON 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 123.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 123.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.8N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.2N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.1N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.9N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.5N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.8N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 122.7E.
14NOV24. SUPER TYPHOON 27W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106 NM
SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
140000Z IS 915 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS
52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TORAJI)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN33 PGTW).
//
2724110906 71N1482E 15
2724110912 76N1472E 15
2724110918 82N1462E 15
2724111000 88N1454E 20
2724111006 97N1440E 20
2724111012 107N1425E 20
2724111018 115N1411E 20
2724111100 122N1394E 30
2724111106 124N1380E 35
2724111112 125N1365E 40
2724111118 129N1349E 45
2724111200 136N1337E 45
2724111206 140N1318E 50
2724111206 140N1318E 50
2724111212 144N1304E 55
2724111212 144N1304E 55
2724111218 148N1289E 65
2724111218 148N1289E 65
2724111218 148N1289E 65
2724111300 151N1278E 70
2724111300 151N1278E 70
2724111300 151N1278E 70
2724111306 156N1265E 75
2724111306 156N1265E 75
2724111306 156N1265E 75
2724111312 162N1253E 115
2724111312 162N1253E 115
2724111312 162N1253E 115
2724111318 165N1241E 130
2724111318 165N1241E 130
2724111318 165N1241E 130
2724111400 172N1231E 130
2724111400 172N1231E 130
2724111400 172N1231E 130
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY USAGI IS LOCATED AT 17.2N, 123.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140148

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON USAGI (2425) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 105 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (127.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 17.2N 123.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 141200UTC 18.8N 121.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 150000UTC 20.3N 120.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 160000UTC 22.2N 120.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 170000UTC 22.7N 121.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 180000UTC 22.9N 121.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 190000UTC 23.0N 122.2E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 940 HPA
AT 17.2N 123.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 18.8N 121.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 20.3N 120.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 22.2N 120.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 22.7N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 22.9N 121.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 23.0N 122.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1012 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 132248

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 132100 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON USAGI (2425) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 105 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (127.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.=

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 132100
WARNING 132100.
WARNING VALID 142100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 950 HPA
AT 16.9N 123.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 18.4N 121.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 20.0N 120.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 16.9N 123.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 140900UTC 18.4N 121.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 142100UTC 20.0N 120.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 151800UTC 22.2N 121.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 161800UTC 23.2N 122.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 171800UTC 23.9N 123.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 181800UTC 24.3N 124.0E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY USAGI IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-19/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 950 HPA
AT 16.6N 123.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 18.1N 122.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 19.7N 120.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 22.2N 121.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 23.2N 122.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 23.9N 123.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 24.3N 124.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1012 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 16.6N 123.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 140600UTC 18.1N 122.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 141800UTC 19.7N 120.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 151800UTC 22.2N 121.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 161800UTC 23.2N 122.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 171800UTC 23.9N 123.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 181800UTC 24.3N 124.0E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131648

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

SEVERE TYPHOON USAGI (2425) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 131500 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON USAGI (2425) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (23.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (127.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (28.5 N)
ONE THREE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (136.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.=

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 131500
WARNING 131500.
WARNING VALID 141500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 950 HPA
AT 16.4N 124.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 17.9N 122.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 19.5N 121.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 16.4N 124.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 140300UTC 17.9N 122.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 141500UTC 19.5N 121.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 151200UTC 21.7N 121.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 161200UTC 23.0N 122.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 171200UTC 23.8N 122.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 181200UTC 24.2N 123.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY USAGI IS LOCATED AT 16.1N, 125.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS AND
LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 955 HPA
AT 16.1N 125.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 17.5N 123.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 19.0N 121.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 21.7N 121.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 23.0N 122.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 23.8N 122.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 24.2N 123.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 16.1N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 140000UTC 17.5N 123.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 141200UTC 19.0N 121.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 151200UTC 21.7N 121.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 161200UTC 23.0N 122.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 171200UTC 23.8N 122.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 181200UTC 24.2N 123.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 130900
WARNING 130900.
WARNING VALID 140900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 970 HPA
AT 15.8N 125.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 17.1N 123.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 18.6N 122.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 15.8N 125.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 132100UTC 17.1N 123.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 140900UTC 18.6N 122.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 150600UTC 21.0N 121.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 160600UTC 22.1N 121.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 170600UTC 22.8N 122.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 180600UTC 23.4N 122.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY USAGI IS LOCATED AT 15.7N, 126.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 975 HPA
AT 15.7N 126.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 16.8N 124.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 18.4N 122.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 21.0N 121.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 22.1N 121.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 22.8N 122.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 23.4N 122.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 15.7N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 131800UTC 16.8N 124.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 140600UTC 18.4N 122.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 150600UTC 21.0N 121.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 160600UTC 22.1N 121.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 170600UTC 22.8N 122.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 180600UTC 23.4N 122.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 130300
WARNING 130300.
WARNING VALID 140300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 975 HPA
AT 15.3N 127.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 16.5N 124.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 18.0N 122.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 15.3N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 131500UTC 16.5N 124.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 140300UTC 18.0N 122.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 150000UTC 20.5N 120.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 160000UTC 21.7N 121.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 170000UTC 22.5N 122.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 180000UTC 23.0N 123.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY USAGI IS LOCATED AT 15.0N, 128.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 975 HPA
AT 15.0N 128.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 16.2N 125.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 17.6N 123.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 20.5N 120.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 21.7N 121.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 22.5N 122.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 23.0N 123.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 15.0N 128.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 131200UTC 16.2N 125.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 140000UTC 17.6N 123.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 150000UTC 20.5N 120.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 160000UTC 21.7N 121.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 170000UTC 22.5N 122.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 180000UTC 23.0N 123.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 122100
WARNING 122100.
WARNING VALID 132100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) 975 HPA
AT 14.9N 128.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 15.9N 125.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 17.1N 123.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 14.9N 128.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 130900UTC 15.9N 125.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 132100UTC 17.1N 123.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 141800UTC 19.6N 121.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 151800UTC 21.3N 120.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 161800UTC 22.4N 121.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 171800UTC 22.9N 122.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 241112200250
2024111218 27W USAGI 008 04 280 15 SATL 060
T000 147N 1289E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 157N 1264E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 169N 1241E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 183N 1225E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 199N 1216E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 230N 1223E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 249N 1247E 045 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 266N 1284E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.7N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.9N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 26.6N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 128.3E.
12NOV24. TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2724110906 71N1482E 15
2724110912 76N1472E 15
2724110918 82N1462E 15
2724111000 88N1454E 20
2724111006 97N1440E 20
2724111012 107N1425E 20
2724111018 115N1411E 20
2724111100 122N1394E 30
2724111106 124N1380E 35
2724111112 125N1365E 40
2724111118 129N1349E 45
2724111200 136N1337E 45
2724111206 140N1318E 50
2724111206 140N1318E 50
2724111212 144N1304E 55
2724111212 144N1304E 55
2724111218 147N1289E 60
2724111218 147N1289E 60
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 008
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.7N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.9N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 26.6N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 128.3E.
12NOV24. TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (YINXING) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY USAGI IS LOCATED AT 14.6N, 129.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2425 USAGI (2425) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975 HPA
AT 14.6N 129.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 15.6N 126.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 16.7N 124.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 19.6N 121.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 21.3N 120.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 22.4N 121.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 22.9N 122.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2425 USAGI (2425) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 14.6N 129.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 130600UTC 15.6N 126.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 131800UTC 16.7N 124.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 141800UTC 19.6N 121.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 151800UTC 21.3N 120.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 161800UTC 22.4N 121.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 171800UTC 22.9N 122.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ34 PGUM 121537
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM USAGI (27W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272024
137 AM CHST WED NOV 13 2024

...TROPICAL STORM USAGI MOVING INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 129.7E

ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR
ABOUT 670 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM USAGI
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
129.7 DEGREES EAST. USAGI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. USAGI IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THURSDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO
80 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON USAGI.

$$

STANKO=

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 121500
WARNING 121500.
WARNING VALID 131500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) 980 HPA
AT 14.6N 129.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 15.4N 127.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 16.5N 124.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 14.6N 129.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 15.4N 127.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 131500UTC 16.5N 124.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 141200UTC 18.8N 121.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 151200UTC 21.2N 120.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 161200UTC 22.1N 121.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 171200UTC 22.2N 122.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 241112132655
2024111212 27W USAGI 007 04 290 14 SATL 060
T000 145N 1304E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 154N 1277E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 164N 1254E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 177N 1232E 095 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 191N 1216E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 214N 1207E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 232N 1223E 045 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 245N 1245E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 007
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.4N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.4N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.7N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.1N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.2N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 129.7E.
12NOV24. TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 542 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2724110906 71N1482E 15
2724110912 76N1472E 15
2724110918 82N1462E 15
2724111000 88N1454E 20
2724111006 97N1440E 20
2724111012 107N1425E 20
2724111018 115N1411E 20
2724111100 122N1394E 30
2724111106 124N1380E 35
2724111112 125N1365E 40
2724111118 129N1349E 45
2724111200 136N1337E 45
2724111206 140N1317E 55
2724111206 140N1317E 55
2724111212 145N1304E 55
2724111212 145N1304E 55
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS USAGI IS LOCATED AT 14.2N, 130.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) 980 HPA
AT 14.2N 130.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 15.1N 127.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 16.1N 125.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 18.8N 121.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 21.2N 120.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 22.1N 121.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 22.2N 122.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 14.2N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 15.1N 127.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 131200UTC 16.1N 125.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 141200UTC 18.8N 121.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 151200UTC 21.2N 120.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 161200UTC 22.1N 121.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 171200UTC 22.2N 122.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 120900
WARNING 120900.
WARNING VALID 130900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) 985 HPA
AT 14.1N 131.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 14.9N 128.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 15.9N 126.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 14.1N 131.1E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 14.9N 128.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 130900UTC 15.9N 126.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 140600UTC 18.1N 122.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 150600UTC 20.8N 120.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 160600UTC 22.7N 121.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 170600UTC 22.3N 122.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ34 PGUM 120909
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Usagi (27W) Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP272024
709 PM ChST Tue Nov 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM USAGI INTENSIFYING QUICKLY OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.3N 131.0E

About 535 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 580 miles northwest of Yap
About 925 miles west of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...65 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 23 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Usagi
was located near Latitude 14.3 degrees North and Longitude
131.0 degrees East. Usagi is moving west at 23 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with a
decrease in forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph. Usagi is
forecast to intensify through Wednesday possibly becoming a
typhoon Wednesday morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
75 miles to the east and up to 25 miles to the west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be at 2 AM ChST.

$$

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 006
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 131.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 131.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.8N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 24.2N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 131.0E.
12NOV24. TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (YINXING) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS USAGI IS LOCATED AT 14.0N, 131.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) 990 HPA
AT 14.0N 131.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 14.6N 129.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 15.7N 126.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 18.1N 122.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 20.8N 120.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 22.7N 121.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 22.3N 122.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 14.0N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 14.6N 129.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 130600UTC 15.7N 126.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 140600UTC 18.1N 122.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 150600UTC 20.8N 120.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 160600UTC 22.7N 121.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 170600UTC 22.3N 122.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 120300
WARNING 120300.
WARNING VALID 130300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
992 HPA
AT 14.0N 132.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 22
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 14.5N 130.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 15.3N 127.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2425 USAGI (2425) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 14.0N 132.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 121500UTC 14.5N 130.3E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 130300UTC 15.3N 127.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 140000UTC 17.3N 123.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 150000UTC 20.3N 120.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 160000UTC 22.8N 122.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 170000UTC 23.7N 123.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ34 PGUM 120306
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM USAGI (27W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272024
106 PM CHST TUE NOV 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM USAGI INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 133.1E

ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF KOROR
ABOUT 785 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM USAGI
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
133.1 DEGREES EAST. USAGI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. USAGI IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO
70 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM CHST.

$$

DECOU=

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 241112020231
2024111200 27W USAGI 005 04 310 15 SATL 060
T000 138N 1338E 045 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 146N 1309E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 156N 1282E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 166N 1258E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 179N 1237E 100 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 210N 1215E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 227N 1219E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 243N 1243E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI) WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 133.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 133.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.6N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.6N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.9N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.0N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.7N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.3N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 133.1E.
12NOV24. TROPICAL STORM 27W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 746 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2724110906 71N1482E 15
2724110912 76N1472E 15
2724110918 82N1462E 15
2724111000 88N1454E 20
2724111006 97N1440E 20
2724111012 107N1425E 20
2724111018 115N1411E 20
2724111100 122N1394E 30
2724111106 124N1380E 35
2724111112 125N1365E 40
2724111118 128N1350E 45
2724111200 138N1338E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS USAGI IS LOCATED AT 13.4N, 133.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) 996 HPA
AT 13.4N 133.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 14.1N 130.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 15.0N 128.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 17.3N 123.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 20.3N 120.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 22.8N 122.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 23.7N 123.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 13.4N 133.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 121200UTC 14.1N 130.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 130000UTC 15.0N 128.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 140000UTC 17.3N 123.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 150000UTC 20.3N 120.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 160000UTC 22.8N 122.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 170000UTC 23.7N 123.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ34 PGUM 112151
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 27W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272024
751 AM CHST TUE NOV 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM 27W MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 134.2E

ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 390 MILES NORTH OF KOROR
ABOUT 710 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 27W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
134.2 DEGREES EAST. 27W IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. 27W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO
70 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 PM CHST.

$$

DECOU/STANKO=

Original Message :

WTJP34 RJTD 112100
WARNING 112100.
WARNING VALID 122100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) 1002 HPA
AT 12.9N 134.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 14.1N 131.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 14.8N 128.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2425 USAGI (2425)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 12.9N 134.5E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 120900UTC 14.1N 131.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 122100UTC 14.8N 128.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 131800UTC 16.7N 124.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 141800UTC 19.5N 121.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 151800UTC 22.0N 121.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 161800UTC 22.9N 121.9E 215NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 12.4N, 136.7E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(USAGI) STATUS. TS USAGI IS LOCATED AT 12.5N, 134.9E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 241111194432
2024111118 27W TWENTYSEVE 004 04 280 15 SATL 060
T000 128N 1350E 045 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 136N 1320E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 144N 1292E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 154N 1266E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 165N 1243E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 192N 1214E 100 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 212N 1210E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 223N 1221E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 004
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 12.8N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.6N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.4N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.2N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.2N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.3N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 134.2E.
11NOV24. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
823 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2724110906 71N1482E 15
2724110912 76N1472E 15
2724110918 82N1462E 15
2724111000 88N1454E 20
2724111006 97N1440E 20
2724111012 107N1425E 20
2724111018 115N1411E 20
2724111100 122N1394E 30
2724111106 124N1380E 35
2724111112 125N1365E 40
2724111118 128N1350E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 004
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 12.8N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.6N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.4N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.2N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.2N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.3N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 134.2E.
11NOV24. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
823 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 24W (YINXING) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2425 USAGI (2425) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 12.5N 134.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 13.9N 132.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 14.6N 129.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 16.7N 124.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 19.5N 121.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 22.0N 121.5E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 22.9N 121.9E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ53 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2425 USAGI (2425) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 12.5N 134.9E FAIR
MOVE W 18KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 120600UTC 13.9N 132.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 121800UTC 14.6N 129.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 131800UTC 16.7N 124.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 141800UTC 19.5N 121.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 151800UTC 22.0N 121.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 161800UTC 22.9N 121.9E 215NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ34 PGUM 111601
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm 27W Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP272024
201 AM ChST Tue Nov 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM TWENTYSEVEN MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.7N 135.7E

About 275 miles northwest of Yap
About 325 miles north of Kayangel
About 325 miles north-northwest of Ngulu
About 335 miles northwest of Ulithi
About 380 miles north-northeast of Koror
About 615 miles west of Guam
About 690 miles west-southwest of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 17 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm 27W was
located near Latitude 12.7 degrees North and Longitude 135.7 degrees
East. 27W is moving west at 17 mph, away from Yap state. It is
expected to turn slightly toward the west-northwest with little
change in forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph. 27W is forecast
to intensify through Wednesday, possibly becoming a typhoon Tuesday
night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles to the north and up to 30 miles to the south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 241111133408
2024111112 27W TWENTYSEVE 003 04 280 15 SATL 060
T000 125N 1365E 040 R034 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 133N 1334E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 141N 1306E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 149N 1281E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 159N 1257E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 182N 1221E 105 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 208N 1207E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 226N 1219E 045 R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.5N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.1N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.9N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.9N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.2N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.8N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.6N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 135.7E.
11NOV24. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
203 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 995 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2724110906 71N1482E 15
2724110912 76N1472E 15
2724110918 82N1462E 15
2724111000 88N1454E 20
2724111006 97N1440E 20
2724111012 107N1425E 20
2724111018 115N1411E 20
2724111100 122N1394E 30
2724111106 123N1380E 35
2724111112 125N1365E 40
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.5N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.1N 130.6E
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ34 PGUM 110920
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm 27W Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP272024
720 PM ChST Mon Nov 11 2024

...27W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.5N 137.2E

About 215 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 245 miles northwest of Ulithi
About 400 miles north-northeast of Koror
About 515 miles west of Guam
About 600 miles west-southwest of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 16 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm 27W was
located near Latitude 12.5 degrees North and Longitude
137.2 degrees East. 27W is moving west at 16 mph. It is expected
to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with little
change in forward speed through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph. 27W is forecast
to intensify through Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
30 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Tuesday morning.

$$

Williams

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 241111072208
2024111106 27W TWENTYSEVE 002 04 275 14 SATL 060
T000 123N 1380E 035 R034 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 132N 1350E 050 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 140N 1321E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 149N 1294E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 158N 1268E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 178N 1230E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 204N 1210E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 226N 1219E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 138.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 138.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.2N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.8N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.8N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.4N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.6N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 137.2E.
11NOV24. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
168 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 997 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 24W (YINXING) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (TORAJI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2724110906 71N1482E 15
2724110912 76N1472E 15
2724110918 82N1462E 15
2724111000 88N1454E 20
2724111006 97N1440E 20
2724111012 107N1425E 20
2724111018 115N1411E 20
2724111100 122N1394E 30
2724111106 123N1380E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ34 PGUM 110231
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 27W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP272024
1231 PM ChST Mon Nov 11 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W FORMS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.7N 138.5E

About 205 miles north-northwest of Ulithi
About 225 miles north of Yap
About 425 miles west of Guam
About 460 miles northeast of Koror
About 465 miles west of Rota
About 510 miles west-southwest of Saipan
About 975 miles west-northwest of Chuuk

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 18 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
27W was located near Latitude 12.7 degrees North and Longitude
138.5 degrees East. 27W is moving west-northwest at 18 mph. It
is expected to maintain this general course and speed through
Tuesday through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. 27W is forecast to
intensify through tonight possibly becoming a tropical storm.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST.

$$

Williams

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.2N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.8N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 241111011858
2024111100 27W TWENTYSEVE 001 04 295 16 SATL 060
T000 124N 1392E 030
T012 134N 1363E 035 R034 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 142N 1333E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 148N 1305E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 155N 1280E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 173N 1231E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 202N 1205E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 226N 1205E 035 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.2N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.8N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.5N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.3N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.2N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.6N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 138.5E.
11NOV24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 321 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2724110906 71N1482E 15
2724110912 76N1472E 15
2724110918 82N1462E 15
2724111000 88N1454E 20
2724111006 97N1440E 20
2724111012 107N1425E 20
2724111018 117N1407E 20
2724111100 124N1392E 30
NNNN

Global Telecommunication Service

Measurements Levels