Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RAFAEL-24
in Cuba, Jamaica

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone RAFAEL-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001122
Name RAFAEL-24
From - To 03 Nov - 06 Nov
Exposed countries Cuba, Jamaica
Exposed population 600 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 185 km/h Category 3
Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (07 Nov 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

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Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 185 km/h 1.5 m n.a. 1.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 202 km/h 0.8 m 991 mm 0.5
GFS 133 km/h 1.4 m 517 mm 0.5
ECMWF 144 km/h 0.8 m 448 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman Islands (UK), USA - Tropical cyclone RAFAEL (ECHO 07 Nov 2024)Tue, 05 Nov 2024 10:10

  • A new tropical cyclone named RAFAEL formed over the central Caribbean Sea in the evening (UTC) of 3 November and started moving north-northwest toward western Jamaica, the Cayman Islands (UK), and central-western Cuba, strengthening.
  • On 5 November at 6.00 its centre was located over the Caribbean Sea approximately 175 km south-east of the Negril town, far western Jamaica, and around 825 km south-east of the Artemisa city, western Cuba, nearby the capital Havana, with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h (tropical storm).
  • RAFAEL is expected to pass very close to western Jamaica on 5 November, with maximum sustained winds of 93 km/h. After that, it is forecast to make landfall over the area of the Artemisa city (Cuba) on 6 November, with maximum sustained winds up to 148 km/h (category 1 hurricane).
  • Over the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over western Cuba, most of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Heavy rainfall is forecast over the far southern Florida (USA) since 6 November. NOAA has issued a hurricane warning for western Cuba and the Cayman Islands.
Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman islands (UK) - Tropical cyclone RAFAEL, update (ECHO 07 Nov 2024)Wed, 06 Nov 2024 11:19

  • Tropical cyclone RAFAEL, passed between the western coast of Jamaica and the eastern coasts of the Cayman islands (UK) on 5 November and continued northwest toward western Cuba, strengthening. On 6 November at 6.00 its centre was located over the Caribbean Sea approximately 105 km north-northeast of Grand Cayman and 330 km south-southeast of La Havana (Cuba), with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h (hurricane category 1).
  • RAFAEL is forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall over western Cuba in an area close to Artemisa city on late of 6 November. After that, it could briefly weaken over Cuba, but it is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. 
  • Over the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over western Cuba, most of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
  • Hurricane warnings are in effect across the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman Islands (UK), USA - Tropical cyclone RAFAEL (GDA.. 11/6/2024 12:25:00 PM.

Tropical cyclone RAFAEL, passed between the western coast of Jamaica and the eastern coasts of the Cayman islands (UK) on 5 November and continued northwest toward western Cuba, strengthening. On 6 November at 6.00 its centre was located ov
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Hurricane Rafael Intensifies as It Approaches 11/6/2024 1:25:00 AM.

. Updates will be provided as more information becomes available regarding Rafael’s movement and potential landfall. Nov 5, 2024 Photo: @NHC_Atlantic Residents in the nearby areas are urged to stay informed and prepare for potential impact
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Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman Islands (UK), USA - Tropical cyclone RAFAEL (GDA.. 11/5/2024 11:21:00 AM.

A new tropical cyclone named RAFAEL formed over the central Caribbean Sea in the evening (UTC) of 3 November and started moving north-northwest toward western Jamaica, the Cayman Islands (UK), and central-western Cuba, strengthening. On 5 N
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),