Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RAFAEL-24
in Cuba, Jamaica

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Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 102032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...RAFAEL DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 91.3W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael
was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 91.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h).
The remnant low is expected to meander over the central Gulf of
Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and
south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under
AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells will continue impacting portions of the northern and
western Gulf Coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Rafael. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 102032
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

The limited convection that Rafael was producing in its eastern
semicircle has collapsed. Surface observations, visible satellite
images, and a 1530z ASCAT-C pass show the surface circulation has
become poorly defined and very elongated in the north-south
direction. Since Rafael does not possess a well-defined center or
organized convection, it no longer meets the definition of a
tropical cyclone. This will be the final NHC advisory on Rafael.

The remnant low is expected to drift eastward over the central Gulf
of Mexico tonight, then turn toward the south and southwest on
Monday and Tuesday. The forecast calls for dissipation by Tuesday
night, but this could occur even sooner if current trends continue.
The elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf
Coast will likely continue into Monday. For more information, see
products from your local NWS forecast office.

Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Key Messages:

1. Swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 26.1N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 102031
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 91.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RAFAEL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 101434
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Convection has continued to weaken this morning and move farther
away to the east of the low-level center. Rafaels remaining
convection is all located more than 75 miles east-northeast of the
center. A recent observation of a 33-kt 1-min wind from buoy 42001
indicates that Rafael still likely has tropical-storm-force winds.
Gradual weakening is expected to continue because Rafael is located
within a very dry environment, which is forecast to become even
drier over the next 24 to 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and follows the intensity guidance.
Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model suggests that
Rafael should lose its convection and become a remnant low within
the next 12 to 24 h. Rafael is expected to become a remnant low
either tonight or on Monday.

Rafael has been drifting toward the north-northwest, or 345/3 kt.
Rafael will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as it spins down over the
next couple of days, performing a small clockwise loop over the
central Gulf of Mexico through Monday in weak steering currents,
before being pushed southward and southwestward by the low-level
flow on Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast lies close to the
consensus models, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous
NHC track forecast. The NHC forecast calls for the remnant low of
Rafael to open up into a trough and dissipate by mid-week, and this
solution is also shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF models.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast, and this will likely continue
into Monday before subsiding on Tuesday.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 26.3N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 25.9N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 24.1N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 23.8N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 101433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Rafael is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm
is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through
tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday
and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. A few hours ago, NOAA buoy 42001 over the central
Gulf of Mexico recorded a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a
gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of
the northern and western Gulf Coast through the remainder of this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 100830
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...RAFAEL GRADUALLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 91.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Rafael is
moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is
expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight,
then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week,
and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low
by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of
the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Indirect rainfall associated with the moisture from Rafael
is expected to lead to additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with local totals to 15 inches, across portions of
southwestern and central Louisiana into this afternoon. This rain
could lead to or continue significant flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 100830
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Rafael continues to gradually weaken. Satellite images show that
the low-level center remains exposed, with an area of shrinking deep
convection located well east of the center. The initial intensity
is reduced to 35 kt, in accordance with nearby buoy observations and
recent satellite intensity estimates. Gradual weakening is
expected due to a harsh environment of very dry air aloft and wind
shear. The system should lose organized deep convection later
today and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. Only
small changes were made to the previous intensity forecast.

The storm is basically drifting to the north-northwest now, and
Rafael is forecast to make a small clockwise loop during the next
day or so over the central Gulf of Mexico in light steering
currents. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the
cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward, and the
remnant low should open up into a trough of low pressure in about 3
days. The new forecast is a touch east of the previous one in the
near term and also shows dissipation a little sooner based on the
latest model solutions.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions
of southwestern and central Louisiana through this morning.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 26.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 26.4N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 26.2N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z 25.4N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 23.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 100830
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 91.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.4N 91.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.2N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.4N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.3N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 91.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 100232
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Rafael remains sheared this evening, with the remaining convection
located to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. The
circulation center itself is broad and appears to have multiple
small vorticity center embedded in it. The initial intensity is
decreased to 40 kt based on a blend of the various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates. These winds are likely
occurring in the area of convection northeast of the center and
northwest of buoy 42001.

The initial motion is now a slow 325/3. during the next 36 h or so,
Rafael should make a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of
Mexico. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the
cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward. One change in
the track guidance is that that the GFS and HWRF models turn the
system move westward after 60 h and wind up to the north of the rest
of the guidance. Overall, the new forecast track is little changed
from the previous track and lies near the consensus models.

Rafael should continue to weaken due to a combination of
southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment. Simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate that the
associated convection will dissipate between 24-36 h, with the
circulation becoming elongated. Based on this, the intensity
forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low
pressure area by 36 h, with final dissipation by 120 h as suggested
by most of the global models. The new intensity forecast has only
minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions
of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 25.7N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 26.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 25.3N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 24.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 22.8N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z 21.4N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 100231
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 91.7W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 15SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 91.7W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 91.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.0N 91.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.3N 91.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.8N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.4N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 91.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 100231
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

...RAFAEL REMAINS SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 91.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is
expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday
night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is
forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of
the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from
Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local
amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central
Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to
potentially significant flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 092057
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

The center of Rafael has become exposed to the southwest of its
associated convective mass in visible satellite images. The
low-level circulation is becoming broader and less defined, and the
cold overcast from the sheared convection has contracted and warmed
this afternoon. Overall, the storm appears less organized as it
contends with westerly shear and a dry mid-level environment. A
partial ASCAT pass showed 35-40 kt winds in the northeast quadrant,
but may not have sampled the area of strongest winds. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt, which is consistent with a blend of the
latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

The storm should continue weakening tonight due to the negative
effects of increasing westerly shear and continued intrusions of dry
mid-level air. In fact, the latest simulated satellite imagery from
the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Rafael could become devoid of
convection as early as Sunday. The official NHC forecast now shows
post-tropical/remnant low status at 36 h, but further timing
adjustments could be necessary if current trends continue. Rafael is
beginning to slow down (300/4 kt), and the storm is likely to
meander within weakening steering currents over the central Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Sunday. Then, the shallow vortex should become
steered by the prevailing low-level flow on Monday and move toward
the south and south-southwest through the middle of next week. Most
of the guidance shows the remnant low spinning down and opening into
a trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late in the 5-day
forecast period, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation by 120 h.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions
of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 25.7N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 25.7N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 23.3N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 22.2N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z 21.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 092057
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 91.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 91.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.7N 91.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 91.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.7N 91.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 92.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.2N 93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 91.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 092056
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

...SHEARED RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 91.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 91.7 West. Rafael is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The storm is
expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico
through Sunday night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest
on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected through early next week. Rafael is forecast to
degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of
the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from
Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local
amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central
Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially
significant flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 091443
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Rafael is a sheared tropical storm. High-resolution AMSR2 passive
microwave images received after the previous advisory showed the
northeastward tilt of the vortex with height. Recent data from the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm the surface center lies on the
southwestern edge of the deep convective mass over the central Gulf
of Mexico. The strongest winds are likely confined to the northeast
quadrant of the storm underneath this sheared convection. Dropsonde
data indicate the central pressure has risen to around 999 mb, and
the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on flight-level
winds from the aircraft.

The storm is likely to continue weakening due to unfavorable
environmental conditions. Moderate westerly shear (15-20 kt) through
Sunday and mid-level relative humidities falling below 40 percent
should make it difficult for Rafael to become better organized and
sustain deep convection going forward. Steady weakening is shown in
the NHC intensity forecast through Sunday, and Rafael is now
predicted to become a post-tropical remnant low in 48 h.

Rafael is moving west-northwestward (290/5 kt), but the storm is
expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico
within weakening steering currents during the next 24-36 h. As
Rafael becomes weak and shallow, the track guidance agrees on a turn
toward the south and south-southwest within the low-level flow
through the middle of next week. Only minor adjustments were made to
the NHC track forecast, which lies near the center of the guidance
envelope in good agreement with the TVCA simple consensus.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions
of the Upper Texas Coast into Southwest and Central Louisiana
through Sunday morning.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 25.2N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 25.4N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 25.6N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 25.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 25.1N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z 23.6N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 22.4N 93.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 18.5N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 091443
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND RAFAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 91.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. Rafael is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). The storm is
expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico
Sunday into Monday, then turn toward the south or south-southwest by
Monday night.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of
the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from
Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local
amounts to 10 inches, across portions of the Upper Texas Coast into
Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain
will lead to potentially significant flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 091442
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.4N 91.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.6N 92.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.7N 92.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.1N 91.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.6N 92.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.4N 93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.5N 96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 91.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090843
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Latest satellite images show Rafael has continued to burst deep
convection throughout the early morning hours, although shear has
impacted the symmetry of the convective canopy. The convection is
displaced to the northwest of the low-level center, as aircraft
reconnaissance reported earlier, and was further confirmed by a
scatterometer pass around 0230 UTC. There have been no microwave
passes tonight to assist with the storm structure. Satellite
intensity estimates continue to run higher than the flight level
winds from the earlier aircraft data, as they struggle to keep up
with the rapid weakening. Given shear has continued to disrupt the
circulation, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this
advisory, which is near the latest UW-CIMSS satellite consensus. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system in a few hours which will help better assess the storm
structure and intensity.

Rafael remains over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico,
with vertical wind shear and drier air impacting the storms
structure. While the shear may decrease some after 36 h, relative
humidities will drop below 40 percent around the same time which
will lead to steady weakening. Given the unfavorable atmospheric
conditions the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show
steady weakening and follows the latest global model fields showing
Rafael becoming a depression by 48 h and degenerating to a remnant
low pressure area soon after that, although this could occur sooner
than is currently forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest or 285/5 kt. A
ridge to the north of the storm should continue to steer it slowly
west-northwestward for the next 24-36 h. After that, the track
guidance continues to come into agreement with the system meandering
and eventually moving south to southwestward within the low-level
wind flow as the system weakens. The latest NHC forecast was
shifted slightly towards the latest simple and corrected-consensus
aids.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 25.0N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.1N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 25.4N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 25.3N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 24.7N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 23.9N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 23.1N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 21.0N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z 19.6N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090843
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

...RAFAEL MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 90.8W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 90.8 West. Rafael is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected through today. After that, Rafael is likely to
move slowly south-southwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture
from Rafael is expected to cause 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local
amounts to 10 inches, across portions of the Piney Woods and Golden
Triangle of Southeast Texas as well as Southwest and Central
Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to
potentially significant flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090842
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 90.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 90.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 90.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.1N 91.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.4N 92.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.3N 92.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.7N 92.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.9N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.1N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 93.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 19.6N 94.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 90.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090234
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Rafael has become significantly less organized since the last
advisory due to the effects of shear and dry air entrainment. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated the
cyclone a few hours ago reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds
of 69 kt in the northwest quadrant and that the central pressure had
risen to the 985-990 mb range. The aircraft also reported that the
eyewall structure had disintegrated and that the 700-mb center was
located northeast of the surface center. Microwave satellite
imagery also suggests that the low-level center is now southwest of
the main convective mass. Based on these data and the likely
continued weakening since the aircraft mission, Rafael is
downgraded to a tropical storm with the initial intensity of 60 kt.
This value is a little below the latest CIMSS Satellite Consensus
estimate.

Even though Rafael remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of
Mexico, increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of
dry air should cause steady to rapid weakening for at least the
next couple of days. While the shear may decrease some after 48 h,
the airmass is expected to be too dry for the system to make a
comeback. The new intensity guidance follows the trend of the
global models and the regional hurricane models in showing Rafael
weakening to a depression by 60 h and degenerating to a remnant
low pressure area soon after that.

The initial motion is now west-northwest or 285/4 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should steer it lowly
west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the track
guidance has come into better, although not unanimous, agreement
that the cyclone will make a small loop or hairpin turn and wind
up moving south-southwestward as a ridge builds to its west. The
new forecast follows the general direction of the somewhat-spread
consensus models and lies a little to the east of the previous
forecast after 36 h.

Based on the current track and intensity forecasts, Rafael is
expected to have little direct impact on land areas. However,
swells generated by the storm should cause high surf along the
coast of the Gulf of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 24.8N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 25.0N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 25.3N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 25.6N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 25.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 24.4N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 23.4N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 22.0N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 20.5N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

...RAFAEL RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 89.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 89.9 West. Rafael is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward motion is expected through Saturday. After
that, Rafael is likely to move slowly south-southwestward toward
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid weakening is
expected during the next few days. During the past few hours, NOAA
buoy 42001 located north of the center reported sustained winds of
42 mph (68 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (83 km/h).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090233
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 89.9W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 89.9W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 89.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 90.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.3N 91.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.6N 91.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.1N 91.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.4N 91.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.4N 92.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 92.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 20.5N 94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 89.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 082032
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 90SE 150SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.9N 90.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 91.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.6N 92.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 92.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.8N 92.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 93.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 89.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 082032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

...RAFAEL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 89.7W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 89.7 West. Rafael is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow west-northwestward
motion is expected through tonight. After that, Rafael is likely to
meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 081612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.11.2024

HURRICANE RAFAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 88.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.11.2024 24.5N 88.6W STRONG
00UTC 09.11.2024 24.4N 89.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.11.2024 24.9N 90.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2024 25.2N 91.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.11.2024 25.6N 91.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.11.2024 25.8N 91.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2024 25.3N 91.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2024 23.9N 91.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2024 23.0N 92.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2024 22.3N 93.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2024 21.7N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2024 20.6N 94.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2024 18.8N 95.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 9.4N 130.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.11.2024 9.4N 131.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2024 9.5N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.11.2024 9.4N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 35.8N 73.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2024 35.8N 73.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.11.2024 35.8N 73.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081612


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 081433
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Rafael has lost a little strength, but remains a powerful hurricane.
Although the eye that was apparent in satellite images overnight has
filled, the system still has a well organized central dense overcast
pattern with compact banding features surrounding it. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Rafael this morning and
based on their data, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt. The
minimum pressure is estimated to be 961 mb based on dropsonde
information. Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with
tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend
only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively.

Although the waters are still relatively warm over the Gulf of
Mexico, a combination of increasing westerly vertical wind shear and
intrusions of dry air should promote steady to rapid weakening
during the next few days. The intensity models are in good agreement
on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is a touch lower than the
previous one. Rafael is forecast to fall below hurricane strength on
Saturday and degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.

Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge
that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf
of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next 24 hours or so as the ridge weakens. A trough
approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering
currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to
meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system
becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected
in the low-level flow. Despite the complex steering, the models
are in fair agreement and this forecast is generally similar to the
previous one.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 24.5N 88.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 25.5N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.8N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 25.9N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 25.5N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.7N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 22.6N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

...RAFAEL REMAINS A POWERFUL COMPACT HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 88.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Rafael is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower west-northwestward
motion is expected during the next day or so. After that, Rafael is
likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 081432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 91.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.8N 91.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.9N 91.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 91.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.6N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 88.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080845
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

...RAFAEL MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 88.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.0 West. Rafael is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to
move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today. By tonight, a steady weakening trend is forecast and should
continue through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080846
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Satellite images depict Rafael continues to produce deep convection,
with cloud tops around -80 C. However, in the last few hours, the
eye has become more cloud filled and less pronounced. Subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates this cycle were T/5.5 and
T/6.0, from TAFB and SAB respectively. Objective satellite intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 100-119 kt. Using a blend of
these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 105 kt. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system in a few hours.

The initial motion is 275/8 kt, and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as
Rafael continues to be steered by a building ridge to the north.
Model guidance has come into a little better agreement this cycle,
with the latest operational ECMWF and UKMET leaning towards the GFS
solution, which shows a slow anticyclonic meandering loop over the
central Gulf of Mexico. Although there remains some ensemble
divergence, the ensemble means are in better agreement as well. As
the Rafael weakens, the low-level flow then causes the system to
move southwestward in the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the
forecast period. The NHC track was shifted towards these model
trends and lies near to the simple and corrected-consensus aids.

Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and
warm sea surface temperatures. Some intensity fluctuations are
possible today. By tonight, westerly shear is forecast to increase
slightly, and a drier airmass will begin to impact the system. This
should cause Rafael to steadily weaken throughout the forecast
period, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows the latest
model weakening trends. Model simulated IR satellite depicts that
the system will struggle to produce convection by the end of the
period, and the latest NHC forecast shows the system becoming a
remnant low in 120 h. Although, some models like the GFS depict that
this could occur sooner than currently forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 88.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080845
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 88.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080559
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Special Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Satellite imagery this morning depicts that Rafael continues to wrap
deep convection around the center of the system, with cold cloud
tops near -85 C. GLM satellite data shows lightning is occuring in
the eastern eyewall. Subjective and objective intensity estimates
have continued to rise from the previous advisory and range from 100
to 115 kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and these
estimates the current intensity is raised to 105 kt, which required
the special advisory. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning.

The initial motion is 280/8 kt, and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as
Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. There were no
changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory.

Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and
warm sea surface temperature, which has allowed the current
intensification to occur. Additional strengthening is possible
today, and the latest NHC forecast was adjusted in the short term
through 36 h given the current higher intensity. After that,
westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not
likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the
circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the
latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near
the consensus aids beyond 48 h.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080558
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Special Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS INTO MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 87.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Rafael is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward
to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to
move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin late
tonight and continue through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080557
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 87.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.11.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 103.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.11.2024 0 11.5N 103.4W 1008 22
1200UTC 08.11.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE RAFAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.11.2024 0 24.7N 86.7W 965 79
1200UTC 08.11.2024 12 24.4N 88.6W 975 71
0000UTC 09.11.2024 24 24.7N 90.0W 988 54
1200UTC 09.11.2024 36 25.1N 91.2W 994 50
0000UTC 10.11.2024 48 25.4N 91.9W 998 40
1200UTC 10.11.2024 60 26.1N 92.3W 1002 34
0000UTC 11.11.2024 72 26.4N 91.4W 1003 29
1200UTC 11.11.2024 84 26.5N 91.2W 1004 27
0000UTC 12.11.2024 96 25.0N 91.2W 1005 27
1200UTC 12.11.2024 108 24.0N 91.4W 1007 21
0000UTC 13.11.2024 120 23.0N 91.9W 1005 21
1200UTC 13.11.2024 132 22.9N 92.8W 1007 22
0000UTC 14.11.2024 144 22.2N 93.5W 1008 24
1200UTC 14.11.2024 156 20.5N 94.7W 1008 36
0000UTC 15.11.2024 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 30.3N 72.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.11.2024 132 30.2N 69.8W 1010 33
0000UTC 14.11.2024 144 28.9N 66.4W 1006 36
1200UTC 14.11.2024 156 27.3N 66.1W 1007 29
0000UTC 15.11.2024 168 25.5N 66.6W 1006 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 9.7N 132.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.11.2024 156 9.7N 132.8W 1007 23
0000UTC 15.11.2024 168 10.0N 134.1W 1006 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080410


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080253
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Satellite imagery this evening shows that Rafael has become better
organized, with the eye becoming more distinct and the cloud tops
in the eyewall getting colder. However, reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that this has not yet
resulted in strengthening. The central pressure is near 965 mb, and
a combination of 700-mb flight level winds and dropsonde data
supports an initial intensity of 90 kt. Interestingly, this is at
the lower end of the various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates.

The initial motion is now 280/8 kt, and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as
Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. After that,
the track guidance is still quite divergent. The Canadian, NAVGEM,
and COAMPS-TC models call for the cyclone to turn northward or
northeastward toward the northern Gulf coast as it gets affected by
the large deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States.
The GFS, which previously supported this scenario, is now calling
for a slow anticyclonic loop over the central Gulf of Mexico, and
this is also the forecast of the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. The
ECMWF, deterministic UKMET, and the GFS-based regional hurricane
models still show a turn toward the southwest and south as a narrow
ridge builds between the hurricane and the aforementioned trough.
To add to the uncertainty, the GFS and ECWMF ensembles still have
numerous tracks supporting both the northward and southward turns.
Based on the continued guidance spread and continuity from the
previous forecast, the new track forecast continues to lean toward
the southward scenario, although the new track is a little slower
than the previous track to match the overall slower set of guidance.

Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and
the hurricane is crossing a warm eddy in the Loop Current. This
combination should at least maintain the current intensity for the
next 12-24 h, and slight strengthening cannot be ruled out. After
that, westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear
is not likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into
the circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and
the intensity forecast has been adjusted to show an increased
weakening rate between 24-60 h to better fit the trend of the
guidance. The intensity forecast generally follows the faster
weakening rate of the global and GFS-based regional hurricane
models, as the statistical-dynamical models have a slower rate of
weakening. It should be noted that if Rafael turns northward, it
would move over cooler sea surface temperatures and encounter
stronger shear, which would likely cause a faster weakening than
currently forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080252
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 87.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080252
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL GETS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 87.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 87.1 West. Rafael is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to
move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some small intensity fluctuations are possible tonight and
Friday. Weakening is forecast to begin on Friday night and continue
through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 072035
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Rafael has made a resurgence this afternoon. The hurricane has
apparently mixed out some of the dry air from earlier today and
become better organized, with a ragged eye that has emerged in
satellite imagery and a more cohesive ring of deep convection
surrounding its center. On the last pass through the eye earlier
this afternoon, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the
central pressure had fallen several millibars from earlier passes.
They also reported a few observations of 700-mb flight-level winds
in excess of 100 kt, with a peak of 107 kt. These data support
raising the initial intensity to 90 kt. Another Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate Rafael this evening.

The improved structure of the hurricane could make it more resilient
to the negative effects of dry air and westerly shear in the near
term, so some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out tonight.
However, the overall model trends favor weakening through much of
the 5-day forecast period as Rafael moves into a drier mid-level
environment and encounters stronger shear by this weekend. The
updated NHC intensity prediction has been nudged upward through 24 h
and downward at later forecast times, but still lies near or above
the simple- and corrected-consensus aids. It is possible that the
hostile environmental conditions could cause Rafael to weaken even
faster and lose organized convection by the end of the 5-day period.

Rafael is moving west-northwestward (295/8 kt) around a mid-level
ridge over the southwestern Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. As
this ridge builds to its north, the hurricane is expected to move
generally westward through Saturday. There is still quite a bit of
track forecast uncertainty thereafter, with larger than normal
spread among the various track models. Many of the models (including
the ECMWF, UKMET, and regional hurricane models) slow Rafael down
and turn it southwestward in response to ridging over the western
Gulf and northern Mexico. However, the GFS and Canadian models show
a slow northward turn between an upper trough over the central U.S.
and a ridge to the east. No major changes were made to the NHC track
forecast this cycle, which continues to favor the former scenario.
However, future larger adjustments to the track forecast could be
required. If model solutions like the GFS were to verify, Rafael
would encounter a stronger shear environment and likely weaken
faster than shown in the official NHC forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 24.7N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 24.7N 89.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 25.2N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 25.1N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.7N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 072033
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.7N 89.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.2N 92.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.1N 92.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.7N 93.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 071453
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
Rafael this morning. Tail Doppler Radar data and reports from the
flight crews, in addition to earlier passive microwave imagery,
indicate the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest of the
center. This is likely due to the negative influences of some drier
mid-level air and westerly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
have reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, and dropsonde
data indicate the central pressure has risen slightly to around 971
mb. Given the latest flight-level wind data and some erosion of the
eyewall convection, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.

The hurricane is expected to move into an even drier airmass over
the next few days, with at least weak to moderate westerly shear
over the system. So despite 27-28 deg C SSTs over the southern Gulf
of Mexico, some additional weakening is forecast through this
weekend into early next week. Rafael should remain a hurricane for
the next couple of days, but some downward adjustments were made to
the NHC intensity forecast to bring it closer to the latest
multi-model consensus aids. Even still, the NHC forecast lies on the
higher side of the guidance envelope.

Recent aircraft fixes indicate Rafael is beginning a leftward turn,
and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 295/8 kt.
The hurricane should move westward over the next couple of days as a
mid-level ridge builds to its north. Then, there is still some
spread in the track guidance with a bifurcation in model solutions.
Most of the models (including the ECMWF, UKMET, and regional
hurricane models) show Rafael turning southwestward in response to a
narrow ridge building to its northwest. But, the GFS and Canadian
models still suggest a northward turn ahead of a slightly deeper
upper trough over the central United States. The NHC prediction
continues to favor the southern solutions and is similar to the
previous forecast, in agreement with the majority of track models
and consensus aids. There remains above average uncertainty in the
future track of Rafael, and additional adjustments to subsequent
official track forecasts are likely. If the northern model solutions
were to verify, Rafael would likely encounter even more hostile
environmental conditions and weaken faster than shown in the
official NHC forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to
western Cuba today. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along
the higher terrain.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 24.5N 85.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 24.7N 91.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 24.7N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 24.5N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 071451
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 91.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.7N 91.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N 92.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 93.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 071451
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.2 West. Rafael is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
west is expected later today, with this general motion continuing
through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to
move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening is anticipated during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across
portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding
and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 071152
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
RAFAEL...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 84.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 84.9 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west at
a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general
motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is
expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is anticipated during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across
portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding
and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west during the next several
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 070847
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

Satellite images show that Rafael remains fairly well-organized,
with very cold convective cloud tops, although the Central Dense
Overcast is a bit ragged looking. Convective banding features are
limited and no eye is evident on the imagery at this time.
Upper-level outflow is restricted over the western semicircle of the
circulation, indicative of some westerly vertical wind shear over
the tropical cyclone. An earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission
into the system measured 700 mb flight-level winds of 101 kt in the
northeast quadrant which equates to a peak surface wind of about 90
kt. This intensity is also supported by a blend of the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rafael later
this morning.

The hurricane continues to move away from western Cuba with an
initial motion of about 305/10 kt. Rafael is located on the
southwest side of mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic
and the Florida Peninsula. Most of the global models guidance
shows this ridge building westward, albeit weakly, over the
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. As a result, Rafael
should turn westward with some decrease in forward speed during the
next 2-3 days. Then, the majority of the models show a ridge
building to the west of the system. This steering evolution would
cause Rafael to turn more southward, and this is shown by the
dynamical model consensus track prediction. The new official
forecast is adjusted to the left of the previous NHC track but is
not as far south as the consensus. The motion is likely to be
quite slow during the latter part of the forecast period. There
remains significant uncertainty in the future track of Rafael over
the Gulf of Mexico and additional adjustments to subsequent official
track forecasts are likely.

Southwesterly vertical wind shear should continue to affect Rafael,
although the latest SHIPS model output does not show very strong
shear over the system during the next several days. However, the
numerical guidance does indicate very dry air around Rafael through
the forecast period, which should induce weakening. If the system
moves farther south over the Gulf than currently anticipated, it
could encounter lower wind shear, and likely a more moist air mass.
This could result in Rafael maintaining its intensity more than
currently expected. For now, the official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and calls for weakening later in the
period. This is similar to the latest model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the Dry Tortugas
through this morning.

2. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to
western Cuba today. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along
the higher terrain.

3. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 24.2N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 24.4N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 24.5N 87.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.6N 90.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 24.6N 92.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 24.2N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 23.5N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070845
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 84.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
Cuba.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys is
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
please monitor products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 84.6 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west
at a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general
motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael
is expected to continue to move away from western Cuba over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Rafael is then forecast
to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is possible during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Dry Tortugas
through this morning.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across
portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding
and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west during the next several
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 070845
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.6W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.6W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 85.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N 87.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 90.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.6N 92.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.2N 93.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 23.5N 93.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 84.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070545
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA
OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
Mayabeque

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.1 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west
at a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general
motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael
is expected to continue to move away from western Cuba over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Rafael is then forecast
to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some weakening is possible today, with little change
in strength expected on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of
western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in parts of the Lower and Middle Florida Keys and the
Dry Tortugas through this morning.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across
portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding
and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should
subside overnight.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible overnight,
mainly over parts of the Lower Florida Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so and will also
spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this
week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 070252
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

The eye of Rafael made landfall just after the last advisory was
issued with an estimated intensity of 100 kt. Since then, the
center has crossed western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, and a combination of land interaction and increasing
southwesterly shear has caused some weakening. Reports from NOAA
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure has risen to near 969 mb, and that the maximum
winds have decreased to near 90 kt. In addition, radar data from
Cuba and the Key West WSR-88D show that the eyewall structure has
decayed, with the deep convection now confined to the northeastern
quadrant.

The initial motion is 315/11. Rafael is on the southwest side of a
low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida
Peninsula. This ridge is forecast to build westward in response to
a developing deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States.
This evolution should cause the cyclone to move westward across the
Gulf of Mexico with some decrease in forward speed during the next
2-3 days. The track guidance remains divergent after 72 h. The
GFS and Canadian models show the cyclone being caught in southerly
flow between the deep-layer trough and a ridge over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and turn the system northward. The ECMWF and UKMET
forecast the ridge to be more over the western Gulf of Mexico
between Rafael and the trough, and thus turn the cyclone
southwestward. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs have tracks that
support both of these possibilities. Given the spread and
uncertainty, this low-confidence latter part of the forecast track
shows a slow west-southwestward motion close the the consensus
models.

The global models suggest that the current shear should decrease in
about 24 h, then increase again later in the forecast period. The
forecast track keeps the system over relatively warm sea surface
temperatures, especially if it turns southwestward. However, all
of the guidance agrees that the airmass over the Gulf will be quite
dry, and this should lead to gradual weakening even if the system
stays over the warm water. There remains a lot of uncertainty in
the intensity forecast, as the environment is much more hostile to
the north of the forecast track and somewhat more favorable to the
south of the forecast track. The intensity forecast follows the
overall trend of the guidance, but the guidance itself has a
significant spread.

Since the eyewall structure has decayed and the system is moving
away from western Cuba, there will be no more hourly updates for
Rafael. Three-hourly public advisories will continue as long as
watches and warnings are in effect.

Key Messages:

1. While Rafael is now moving away from western Cuba, a hurricane
warning remains in effect for this region where a life-threatening
storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves
are still possible.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in
the Lower and Middle Florida Keys tonight.

3. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to
western Cuba into Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are
possible along the higher terrain.

4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 23.5N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 070251
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 83.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 83.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 83.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for the
provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and the Isle of
Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
Mayabeque

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.6 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A turn toward the west
at a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday, with this general
motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael
is expected to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible tonight and Thursday,
with little change in strength expected on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of
western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in parts of the lower and middle Florida Keys through
tonight.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
into Thursday, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches
across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash
flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should
subside tonight.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible this evening,
mainly over parts of the Lower Florida Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so and will also
spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this
week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 070200
TCUAT3

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...
...9 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

The next update will be provided with the next complete advisory at
10 PM EST...0300 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 83.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 070056
TCUAT3

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
800 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...8 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

A few hours ago, Mariel, Cuba reported sustained winds of 80 mph
(130 km/h) and a peak gust of 115 mph (185 km/h) as the eye of
Rafael passed nearby.

The next hourly update will be provided at 9 PM EST...0200 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 83.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 062352
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS,
AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 83.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 83.2 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward
motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to
westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the
forecast track, Rafael is expected to move away from western Cuba
this evening, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this
evening and tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rafael is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during
the next day or so while Rafael moves over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring
in squalls over the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, including a gust
of 66 mph (106 km/h) at the NOAA station at Sand Key.

The minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of
western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle
Florida Keys through tonight.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across
portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12
inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash
flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should
subside tonight.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 062255
TCUAT3

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
600 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL ON THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...6 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

The Havana International Airport recently reported a wind gust of
67 mph...108 km/h.

The next update will be provided in the intermediate advisory at 7
PM EST...0000 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 83.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 062159
TCUAT3

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
500 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING THROUGH THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA...

Recently, the Havana International Airport has reported sustained
winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 71 mph (114 km/h).
A weather station in the Casablanca area of Havana recently
reported a wind gust of 93 mph (150 km/h).

The next hourly update will be provided at 6 PM EST (2300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 82.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ESE OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 062114
TCUAT3

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
415 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL MAKES LANDFALL IN THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA...

Rafael has made landfall in the Cuban province of Artemisa just
east of Playa Majana. Maximum sustained winds at landfall are
estimated to be near 115 mph (185 km/h). The estimated minimum
central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

The next hourly update will be provided at 5 PM EST (2200 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 415 PM EST...2115 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 82.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 062049
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve
after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming
quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a
couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and
measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated
minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the
northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located.
Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100-kt initial intensity is
supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak
estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over
the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is
underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery,
and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall.

With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in
strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba
within the next hour or so. Some weakening is expected as the
storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over
the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and
significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening. As
noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward
late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where
environmental conditions could be less hostile. If additional
southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on
subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward
adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael
is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of
a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next
day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build
westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael
to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. By 72
hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with
the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the
remainder of the track guidance. The NHC track forecast has been
shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the
various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and
southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models
now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern
Gulf by the end of the period.

Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane
this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for
this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging
hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in
the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight.

3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are
expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba.

4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 062047
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 82.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 82.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 82.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 82.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 062047
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...
...BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 82.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward
motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to
westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the
forecast track, Rafael is expected to cross Cuba this evening, and
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this evening or
tonight. Rafael is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected
before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba. Some weakening is
forecast while Rafael crosses western Cuba, but the storm is
forecast to remain a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at
the Havana International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of western
Cuba through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys
through tonight.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across
portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12
inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash
flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to
14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including
the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 061957
TCUAT3

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...EYEWALL OF RAFAEL APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...3 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

Rafael is nearing western Cuba and is expected to make landfall
within the next couple of hours.

The next update will be provided in the full advisory at 4 PM
EST...2100 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 82.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 061857
TCUAT3

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
200 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...EYE OF RAFAEL NEARING WESTERN CUBA...
...2 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

Rafael is nearing western Cuba and is expected to make landfall
within the next few hours.

Another position update will be provided by 3 PM EST (2000 UTC)


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 82.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 061755
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 82.3 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual
west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast
track, Rafael is expected make landfall in western Cuba this
afternoon. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico tonight.

Satellite data and preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in
Cuba this afternoon. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). An automated weather station at Cayo Largo Del Sur,
Cuba, reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to
83 mph (134 km/h) within the past few hours.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the
Isle of Youth through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle
Florida Keys today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into
western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across
portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12
inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead
to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands
additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to
14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including
the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 061452
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 83.2W...OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N 84.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.3N 86.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.4N 88.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N 92.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.7N 92.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 81.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 061452
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS,
AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 81.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 81.9 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so,
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or just east of
the Isle of Youth during the next few hours, and make landfall
in western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Rafael is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall
in Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the
Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys
today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther
east in central Cuba today.

RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western
Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are
expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher
totals up to 12 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain.
This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the
Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to
14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including
the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 061159
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 81.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Grand Cayman.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 81.6 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or two, followed by a
gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the
forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or over the Isle of
Youth later this morning or early this afternoon, and make landfall
in western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael
could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in
Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in
portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in
central Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches
are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with
isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of
higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and
mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of
Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands, and could raise
water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in
areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the
Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 060851
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep
convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is
very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are
also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a
closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a
rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level
winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is
set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael's inner core is relatively
small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi
from its 10-15 n mi wide eye.

The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial
motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two,
Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance
becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the
system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that,
during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge
could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could
force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days.
In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions,
the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous
one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If
future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional
leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required.

Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat
content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to
mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba.
Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane
status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive
for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly
shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are
likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near
the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast
period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane
intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth
today. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where
damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and
destructive waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning today and tonight.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and
mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 060850
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 80.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 81.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 060850
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 81.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 81.3 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or two,
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move over western Cuba
later today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph
(150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast,
and Rafael could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes
landfall in Cuba later today. Rafael could briefly weaken over
Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico as a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in
portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in
central Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches
are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with
isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of
higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and
mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of
Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and
could raise water levels by as much as 8 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on
Wednesday.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 060547
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 80.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Grand Cayman radar
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 80.9 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so,
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move over western Cuba
later today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael is
forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall
in Cuba later today. Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is
then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands for the next few hours and are also expected in western Cuba
and the Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle
Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible farther east in central Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and
could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on
Wednesday.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 060300
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

We have been fortunate to receive an abundance of in-situ data from
both an Air Force Reserve C-130 and a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter
aircraft tonight. Their data indicated that Rafael had become a
hurricane just after 00 UTC with peak 750 mb flight level winds of
79 kt from the NOAA-P3 and 700 mb winds of 73 kt from the Air Force
C-130. On satellite imagery Rafael's structure continues to improve
with very cold deep convection near the center rotating around the
center. Radar reflectivity out of Grand Cayman Island also shows the
inner core continues to improve with a 10-15 n mi diameter eyewall,
though is still occasionally open on the southwest side. The initial
intensity is set to 70 kt, based on NOAA-P3 Tail Doppler Radar
velocities up to 85 kt in the NE eyewall boundary layer, which was
matched by an Air Force Recon dropsonde also launched in the NE
eyewall at 0025 UTC that had a 500 m layer average wind of 85 kt.

Rafael continues to move northwestward at 320/11 kt. A prominent
low- to mid-level ridge centered offshore of the Southeastern U.S.
should continue to steer the hurricane northwestward for the next
day or so. This track will lead to Rafael moving through the Cayman
Islands for the next few hours and then across the western portion
of Cuba during the afternoon on Wednesday. Thereafter, Rafael will
emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where it is becoming
increasingly likely that the aforementioned ridging will begin to
build to the north of Rafael, leading to the hurricane turning more
west-northwestward and slowing down as it moves into the central
Gulf of Mexico. There have been notable changes in the global model
guidance today, with the GFS track shifting significantly to the
south and west over the past four cycles, closer to the ECMWF track.
This evolution is likely partially related to changes in the
upstream synoptic flow pattern, now showing a cutoff low digging
into the four corners region rather than being more progressive
moving eastward in the Great Plains. Such an evolution will allow a
narrow ridge to become oriented directly over Rafael, substantially
slowing its forward motion. Because it is becoming more evident the
ECMWF synoptic flow pattern may end up being correct, the NHC track
has been shifted leftward, especially beyond 48 h, compared to the
previous forecast track. At the very end of the forecast, Rafael
will likely become a shallow cyclone, drifting slowly northward in
the low-level flow.

Environmental conditions are very favorable for continued
intensification, and given that Rafael now possesses a tight inner
core and eyewall, rapid intensification seems likely. Strangely, the
HAFS models did not appear to initialize correctly at 18 UTC, and
were a good 5-10 mb too weak at 00 UTC tonight. Despite this, HAFS-B
raw model output shows Rafael becoming a category 2 hurricane before
moving over Cuba, and the NHC intensity forecast will now show
Rafael becoming a Category 2 hurricane in 12 h. It is also not
impossible Rafael becomes a major hurricane before impacting Cuba,
with at least one hurricane-regional model showing this possibility
this cycle (HMON). Rafael should briefly weaken over Cuba. After the
hurricane emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, the environment is not as
favorable as the northwestern Caribbean, but is also not especially
unfavorable from 24-48 h as it will remain over 27-28 C waters, and
only 10-15 kt of vertical wind shear. However, mid-level shear
begins to substantially increase after that time, and sea-surface
temperatures from wave drifters just north of Rafael's forecast
track are only 26-27 C. This one two negative punch will likely
begin to result in weakening, which should become more rapid towards
the end of the forecast period as very dry air over the western Gulf
of Mexico is likely to be ingested into the storm. The NHC intensity
forecast is at the upper-end of the guidance in the first 12 h, but
then falls closer to the HCCA consensus aid between 24-48 h, before
dropping into the middle of the intensity guidance envelope by the
end of the forecast. Rafael might be close to becoming post-tropical
as global model guidance suggests it may lose most of its remaining
convection in about 120 h.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over
the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before
Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A
hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive
waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean through early Thursday, including Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain
in Jamaica and Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 19.7N 80.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 21.2N 81.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 83.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...ON THE N CUBA COAST
36H 07/1200Z 24.3N 84.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 24.8N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 25.1N 87.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.4N 89.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 26.7N 91.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 27.9N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 060256
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...HURRICANE RAFAEL PASSING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 80.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 80.4 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so,
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to pass through the Cayman
Islands tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night.

Aircraft dropsonde data indicates that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 12-18 hours, and
Rafael is now forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it
makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday. Rafael could briefly weaken
over Cuba but is then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico as a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An observation site on Cayman Brac recently reported a
wind gust of 80 mph (129 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde
observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
tonight and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts
of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible farther east in central Cuba late tonight into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and
could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on
Wednesday.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 060254
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 79.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.2N 81.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 83.2W...ON THE N CUBA COAST
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 84.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.8N 85.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.1N 87.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 89.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N 91.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 91.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 80.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 060021
TCUAT3

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
720 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that
Rafael has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75
mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also
indicates that the minimum central pressure has fallen to 986 mb
(29.11 inches).

SUMMARY OF 720 PM EST...0020 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 79.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 052355
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 79.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 19.3 North, longitude 79.9 West. Rafael is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general northwestward motion
is anticipated over the next several days. On the forecast track,
the storm is expected to move near or over the Cayman Islands
tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected
during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to become a
hurricane shortly as it passes near the Cayman Islands, with
additional strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from dropsonde data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts
of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and
could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and
far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 052041
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
radar data from Grand Cayman indicate that Rafael has developed an
inner wind core during the past several hours. The radar data shows
the development of a ragged eye, and the Hurricane Hunter reported
850-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt about 30-35 n mi northeast of the
center. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has
fallen to near 989 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity
is increased to 60 kt. The wind radii have been revised some based
on the aircraft data.

The initial motion is northwestward at 325/13 kt. Rafael is
currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone
generally northwestward for the next 36-48 h, with the center
passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. From 48-72
h, the models are in better agreement that the center should turn
more westward as the ridge builds a little westward along the
northern Gulf coast. After 72 h, there remains some significant
spread in the track guidance, due partly to differences in how fast
Rafael will shear apart and due partly to differences in the
forecast strength of the ridge along the Gulf coast. The GFS
weakens the ridge and shows a northward turn, while the ECMWF keeps
a stronger ridge and shows a more westward motion. The
deterministic UKMET has now changed to a northward turn scenario,
but the HWRF, HMON, and UKMET ensemble mean join the ECMWF with a
westward motion. As mentioned with the previous forecast, until
there is a clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more
likely, the forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow
turn toward the north over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Now that Rafael has developed an inner wind core, conditions are
favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24 h or
so. The system is expected to reach hurricane strength during
the next several hours as it passes through the Cayman Islands with
additional strengthening before it reaches Cuba. While the peak
intensity forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance,
there is a chance that Rafael could get stronger than currently
forecast. Once the center is north of 25N in the Gulf of Mexico,
the cyclone is likely to encounter increasing vertical wind shear,
dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures, which
should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually shearing apart
vertically. This part of the intensity forecast lies near or just
above the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over
the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before
Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A
hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive
waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean through early Thursday, including Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain
in Jamaica and Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 19.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 80.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 82.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.1N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 25.4N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 25.8N 87.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.1N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 28.8N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 052040
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 79.6W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 70SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 79.6W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N 80.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 82.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.1N 83.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.4N 86.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.8N 87.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.1N 90.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.8N 90.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 79.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 052041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 79.6 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next two to three
days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near or
over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, be near or over
western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by Wednesday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph
(110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is
expected during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to
become a hurricane during the next several hours as it passes near
the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes
landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts
of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and
could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and
far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 051739
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL NOW WEST OF THE WESTERN END OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 79.1 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (23 km/h). A generally
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the storm is expected to move away from western
Jamaica this afternoon, and be near or over the Cayman Islands
this evening and tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next
24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it
passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it
makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica for several more hours and are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible farther
east in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal
tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane
Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and
southwesternmost Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 051449
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that the convection has increased near the
center of Rafael during the past several hours. However, reports
from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that
this has not yet translated into strengthening, possibly due to
what looks like a tongue of dry air seen entraining into the
center in microwave imagery. The aircraft reported maximum winds
of 54 kt at 850 mb with a minimum central pressure near 994 mb.
Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity remains 50 kt.
One note is the radius of maximum winds has decreased to about 20
n mi, suggesting that Rafael is trying to develop a better-defined
inner core despite the apparent dry air.

The initial motion is still northwestward at 320/11 kt. Rafael is
currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone
generally northwestward for the next couple of days, with the center
passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. After that
time, there is a significant spread in the track guidance. While all
of the guidance suggests that Rafael should shear apart over the
central and northern Gulf, the GFS takes longer to show this
happening than the ECMWF/UKMET. In addition, the GFS shows a weaker
ridge north of the system, while the ECMWF/UKMET show a stronger
ridge. The result is that the GFS shows a northward motion with
landfall on the northern Gulf coast, while the ECMWF/UKMET show a
westerly motion across the central Gulf of Mexico. Until there is a
clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more likely, the
forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow motion over
the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Conditions are favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during
the next 24-36 h if Rafael can develop a stronger inner wind core.
Based on the expectation that the core will form, the system is
forecast to reach hurricane strength in about 12 h and continue to
strengthen until it reaches Cuba. Once the center is north of 25N
in the Gulf of Mexico, it is likely to encounter increasing
vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface
temperatures, which should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually
shearing apart vertically. The new intensity forecast remains on
the high side of the intensity guidance and is similar to the
previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes
near or over the Cayman Islands by tonight where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this
region, where a life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves
are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower
and Middle Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Cayman, along with southern and western portions of
Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher
terrain in Jamaica and Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 17.8N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 21.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 83.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.1N 85.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 25.6N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 26.8N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 28.0N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 051449
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
WESTERN JAMAICA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 78.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for
the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 78.6 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A generally
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the storm is expected to move near western Jamaica
through early this afternoon, and be near or over the Cayman
Islands this evening and tonight, and be near or over western Cuba
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 to
36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes
near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes
landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica through early this afternoon and are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible farther
east in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal
tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane
Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and
southwesternmost Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 051448
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 78.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 81.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.6N 87.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 89.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 78.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 051146
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL PASSING SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 78.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel
5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 78.4 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A generally
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica this
morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, and be near or
over western Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36
hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the
northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further
strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
this afternoon and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle
of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica through early this afternoon and are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba, possible farther east in central Cuba, and in
the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba where rainfall
totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected. Isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches are anticipated across the higher terrain in Jamaica
and Cuba, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States during the middle to latter part of the
week. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower
and Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal
tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane
Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and
southwesternmost Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 050854
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that Rafael is becoming better organized,
with convective banding features becoming more prominent,
especially over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Central
convection is still a bit limited at this time, with a rather small
Central Dense Overcast. An earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter
mission indicated falling central pressure, with maximum winds
approaching 50 kt. The current intensity is set at that value,
which is slightly above the subjective Dvorak estimates, based on
the increasing organization of the system. Another Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Rafael a little later
this morning which should provide a good estimate on the strength of
the tropical cyclone.

Rafael is moving northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of
about 325/11 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue this general
motion for the next couple of days, crossing western Cuba and
moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is
in fairly good agreement for the first 48 hours of the period.
Thereafter, the model tracks diverge with an increasing spread
between the GFS and ECMWF solutions with time. The ECMWF
simulation shows a much stronger mid-level ridge over the
southeastern U.S., resulting in Rafael moving into the western Gulf
in the latter part of the period. In contrast, the GFS model
indicates that ridge will break down in 3-4 days, allowing the
system to turn northward. The official forecast lies roughly
between these two possibilities and is fairly close to the model
consensus. This is just slightly west of the previous NHC track.
Given the model spread, there is a less confidence than usual in the
4-5 day forecast.

The storm is currently situated in an atmospheric and oceanic
environment that is quite conducive for strengthening, with high
oceanic heat content, low vertical wind shear, and high low- to
mid-tropospheric humidity. The various Rapid Intensification (RI)
indices from our model guidance show a significant chance of RI
during the next day or so, so the shorter-term official intensity
forecast might be a bit conservative. After Rafael moves into the
Gulf of Mexico, however, drier air and stronger vertical wind shear
should halt the strengthening process. The official intensity
forecast is on the high side of the guidance for the 3-5 day
forecast, and is similar to the previous NHC prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes
near or over the Cayman Islands by tonight where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this
region, where a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are
also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early
this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday
night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Caymans, along with southern and western portions of
Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher
terrain in Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rainfall will spread north into
Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to
late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 20.3N 80.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 22.2N 82.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 25.8N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 26.8N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 27.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 050852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES NEAR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A generally
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica this
morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, and be near or
over western Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast
over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a
hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands
with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
this afternoon and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle
of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica through early this afternoon and are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba, possible farther east in central Cuba, and in
the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba where rainfall
totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected. Isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches are anticipated across the higher terrain in Jamaica
and Cuba, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States during the middle to latter part of the
week. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower
and Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal
tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane
Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and
southwesternmost Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 050851
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N 79.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.3N 80.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 82.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.9N 84.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.8N 86.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.8N 89.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 27.8N 90.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 78.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 050541
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL APPROACHING JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 77.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 77.6 West. Rafael is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few
days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near
Jamaica this morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands tonight,
and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36
hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the
northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further
strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
this afternoon and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle
of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica through this morning and are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba, possible farther east in central Cuba, and in
the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding and mudslides could
occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States by mid to late week. Rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal
tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane
Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 050300
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

After a period of intensification this afternoon, Rafael has taken a
brief pause on further development. Tonight's Air Force Reserve
Aircraft sampled the tropical storm from 2330-0130 UTC, finding the
structure still somewhat broad with a minimum central pressure of
996 mb from the last fix, only slightly lower than this afternoon.
Earlier AMSR2 and GMI microwave imagery did show the outer core
structure of Rafael is gradually organizing, with plenty of curved
convective bands on the 37-GHz channel along the the eastern flank,
though some dry air appears to be undercutting the cirrus outflow
to the west and preventing organized convection from fully wrapping
around the center. Aircraft flight-level winds at 850 mb were not
all that impressive (40 kt peak), though peak SFMR values in the
same realm still support a maximum intensity of about 40 kt for
this advisory. Another Air Force Reconnaissance mission is in route
to sample the storm again later tonight.

Rafael appears to be turning more northwestward with a faster
forward motion, estimated tonight at 335/10 kt. The track forecast
for the next 48 h is fairly straightforward, as mid-level ridging
builds in to the northeast of Rafael, which should maintain steering
that should continue a northwestward track, bringing the tropical
storm on its closest approach to Jamaica Tuesday morning, passing
through the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and nearing the Caribbean
coast of western Cuba on Wednesday. After Rafael crosses Cuba and
moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the track forecast remains a
challenge. The spread in ensemble track solutions is notable, and
appears not just related to the vertical depth of Rafael, but also
the synoptic pattern over the United States. A large deep-layer
cutoff low is expected to dig into the four corners region of the
U.S., and how progressive this feature is moving into the central
U.S. will likely determine how much ridging remains over the Gulf of
Mexico in 4-5 days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the
prior track for the first 36 h, but is a shade farther right beyond
that time, slightly favoring the GFS and Canadian model solutions
over the UKMET and ECMWF tracks. However, the 200-850 mb steering
flow depicted in the Gulf of Mexico also shows the possibility of a
bifurcation point near 25N 86W in 3 days, and where Rafael ends up
at the time could determine if it stays in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico or moves much further westward into the central or western
Gulf. Needless to say, this is a low confidence track forecast in 5
days.

The inner core of Raphael still appears to be in the formative stage
tonight, as convection has yet to become axis-symmetrical around the
low-level circulation, which lacks a tighter wind field. Thus, the
rate of intensification over the next day or so should be slower
than in the final 24 h before Raphael reaches Cuba. Environmental
conditions remain very favorable in the northwestern Caribbean, and
SHIPS rapid intensification guidance still indicates that the
cyclone has a 40-50 percent chance of a 45 kt increase in the next
36 h. The NHC intensity forecast will show 40 kt of intensification
over the next 36 h, with some additional intensification possible
before Raphael moves over Cuba. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, westerly
shear increases to 15-25 kt, which could halt intensification and
ultimately lead to weakening as it imports very dry air into Raphael
by the end of the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the prior advisory, and remains on the high side of the overall
intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes
near or over the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this
region, where a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are
also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight and
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week, where
flooding and landslides are possible. Heavy rainfall will spread
into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid
to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 16.3N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 17.6N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 21.4N 81.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 24.6N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 85.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 26.6N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 27.1N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 050259
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...RECON FINDS RAFAEL STEADY STATE AS IT NEARS JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND ISLE OF YOUTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 77.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has upgraded all the provinces previously
under a Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning. The government of
Cuba has also upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm
Warning for the provinces of Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti
Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through
Tuesday morning for Jamaica, and within 36 h for portions of Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 77.2 West. Rafael is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northwestward turn with a little more acceleration is anticipated
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected
to be near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, be near or over the Cayman
Islands Tuesday night, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24
to 36 h, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the
northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further
strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from dropsonde data from the
Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle
of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica tonight into Tuesday morning and are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba, possible farther east in central Cuba, and in
the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding and mudslides could
occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States by mid to late week. Rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal
tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane
Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 050254
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.6N 78.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 81.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 84.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N 85.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.6N 87.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 27.1N 89.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 77.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 042350
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...RAFAEL APPROACHING JAMAICA WHERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 76.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego
de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.system.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required later
tonight or early Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located by Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
15.8 North, longitude 76.9 West. Rafael is now moving toward the
north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A more northwestward motion is
expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move
near Jamaica during the overnight period, be near or over the Cayman
Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecasted and the system could
become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure recently measured by dropsonde
data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica during the overnight into Tuesday morning and are possible
in central Cuba, and in the lower and middle Florida Keys on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding and mudslides could
occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States by mid to late week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1-3 feet above normal tide
levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 042058
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA
LATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 76.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for
the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego
de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.system.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required
tonight or early tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Rafael is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion
is expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move
near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands late
Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica by late tonight and are possible in central Cuba, and in the
lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding and mudslides could
occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States mid to late week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1-3 feet above normal tide
levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 042054
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Deep convection continues to burst near the center of the system,
with improving overall structure and curved banding depicted in
recent satellite images. Recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter data has
found flight level winds around 40-45 kt with higher SFMR values.
The Hurricane Hunters also indicated that an eyewall appears to be
developing. Based on the aircraft data, the intensity is being
increased to 40 kt. The system is now designated as Tropical Storm
Rafael, and is the seventeenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane
season.

The storm has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track,
and the initial motion is estimated 010/8 kt. A turn to the
northwest is expected later tonight, and that motion is forecast to
continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should
take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the
Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on
Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to
differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the
storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous
one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it
should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is
of lower confidence.

Given the improving overall structure with an inner core developing,
combined with favorable environmental factors of low wind shear,
high moisture, and warm SSTs all support intensification. Models all
support steady to rapid intensification, and SHIPS RI probabilities
indicate a near 40 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in the next 24
hours and a near 50 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in 48 hours.
Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast and peak intensity has been
increased and lies near the higher end of the guidance envelope
through the middle part of the forecast period. Based on the
SHIPS RI guidance, future upward intensity adjustments during the
first 48 h may be necessary in subsequent forecast cycles. In a
few days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase
in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler
waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening, and
the NHC intensity forecast follows these weakening trends and lies
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids through the end of the
forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over
the Cayman Islands by Tuesday evening where damaging hurricane-force
winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight and
Tuesday.

2. Additional strengthening is forecast before Rafael reaches
western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday where there is an
increasing risk of a dangerous storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

5. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week, where
flooding and landslides are possible. Heavy rainfall will spread
into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid
to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 042053
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 76.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 76.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 041801
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA
LATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 76.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego
de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.system. Additional
watches or warnings could be required today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely
monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 76.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and forecast
to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system
is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the
Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and a
hurricane by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eighteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica by late tonight and are possible in central Cuba on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eighteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight
and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 041754
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch
for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila,
Camaguey, and Las Tunas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego
de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.system. Additional
watches or warnings could be required today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely
monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 76.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and forecast
to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system
is expected to move near Jamaica tonight, be near or over the Cayman
Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eighteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica by this evening and are possible in central Cuba on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eighteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight
and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 041440
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images, and
surface observations indicate that the low pressure system over the
south-central Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center and
is producing organized deep convection. Therefore, the system now
meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The maximum
flight-level winds from the aircraft support holding the initial
wind speed steady at 30 kt. Deep convection is gradually organizing
near the center and in bands around it, especially on the south and
east sides of the circulation.

The depression has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track,
and the initial motion estimate is now 010/8 kt. A turn to the
northwest is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to
continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should
take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the
Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on
Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to
differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the
storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous
one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it
should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is
of low confidence.

The environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm
SSTs support intensification, and since the system now has a well
organized circulation, there is increasing confidence of steady
strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf,
a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air,
and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope, fairly close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus
aids.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands on
Tuesday and are possible in portions of Cuba early Wednesday, where
Hurricane Warnings and Watches are in effect. There is a risk of
dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the
Cayman Islands and portions of western Cuba. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Jamaica this evening.

2. Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system
as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of these
areas later today.

3. The system is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico later this
week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast
track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any,
impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor
updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica and portions of Cuba through
mid-week. Flooding and mudslides are possible in these areas. Heavy
rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the
Southeast United States mid to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 15.2N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 16.5N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 18.2N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 19.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 21.7N 82.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 24.6N 85.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 26.1N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 27.4N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 041438
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch
for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila,
Camaguey, and Las Tunas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego
de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.system. Additional
watches or warnings could be required today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely
monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 76.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and forecast
to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system
is expected to move near Jamaica tonight, be near or over the Cayman
Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eighteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica by this evening and are possible in central Cuba on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eighteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight
and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 041438
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 76.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 76.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 76.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 77.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.2N 79.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.9N 80.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.7N 82.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 83.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 85.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.1N 87.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.4N 89.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 76.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 041204
TCUAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
705 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning
for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF 705 AM EST...1205 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 041146
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this
system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.8 North, longitude 76.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected
later today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica
this evening, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday,
and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or storm
today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter. The system
could be near or at hurricane intensity when it passes near the
Cayman Islands and Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours ...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days... high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica by this evening.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on
Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 040850
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

The system's deep convection is gradually becoming better organized
with a little more concentration of the shower and thunderstorm
activity. However, convective banding features are not yet well
defined, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane aircraft did
not show a distinct circulation center. Surface observations and
scatterometer data indicate very light winds over the western
portion of the disturbance. Since the circulation has yet to
become well defined, the system is still being designated as a
potential tropical cyclone at this time. The current intensity
estimate remains at 30 kt based on the scatterometer winds and the
aircraft observations. Another Air Force plane is scheduled to
investigate the system later this morning.

Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is
rather uncertain. My best estimate is slowly northward, or 360/6
kt. Over the next few days, the system should move generally
northwestward on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure system near and east of the Florida peninsula. Later in
the forecast period, the track guidance diverges significantly,
with the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met office model predictions well to
the southwest of most of the other guidance tracks. The motion
during the latter part of the period is partially dependent on how
much the mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast is eroded by
the upstream flow and how strong and vertically deep the tropical
cyclone will become. The details of this evolution are not well
known at this time. In any event it should be noted that, given the
uncertainty in the center location, there is greater than usual
uncertainty in the track forecast.

As noted earlier, there is also significant uncertainty in the
intensity prediction. For the next 48 hours or so, the system
will be traversing waters of high oceanic heat content with low
vertical wind shear. Therefore strengthening is likely, but the
amount of intensification is largely dependent on whether a
well-defined inner core and vertically aligned circulation
develops. If this evolution occurs, which cannot be known with
great certainty, significant intensification is likely before the
system reaches Western Cuba. Later, the environment over the Gulf
of Mexico should be less conducive for strengthening with strong
southwesterly shear and drier air. The official intensity
forecast lies between the more conservative statistical-dynamical
guidance and the more aggressive regional hurricane models.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today and
pass near Jamaica on tonight and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. The system is forecast to become a hurricane
by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from
hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and
portions of western Cuba.

2. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor
this system as hurricane and tropical storm watches could be
required for portions of these areas later today.

3. The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later
this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range
forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if
any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly
monitor updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean, including the island of Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica
and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall would then
spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United
States mid to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/1800Z 15.5N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 05/0600Z 17.3N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 19.1N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 20.8N 81.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 22.7N 83.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0600Z 24.2N 84.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 040848
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 76.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this
system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.2 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a more northwestward motion is
expected today and forecast to continue for the next few days.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica
by late today and be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday
into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today with
additional strengthening forecast thereafter. The system could be
near hurricane intensity when it passes near the Cayman Islands in
the northwestern Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days ...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica by late today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on
Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 040847
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 77.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.3N 78.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.1N 79.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.8N 81.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 83.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...115NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.2N 84.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 76.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 040544
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this
system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.0 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a more northwestward motion is
expected today and forecast to continue for the next few days.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica
by late today and be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday
into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter. The
system could be near hurricane intensity as it passes near the
Cayman Islands in the northwestern Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days ...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by
late today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba
through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on
Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 040258
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

The convective structure of the system in the south-central
Caribbean Sea has not become any better organized this evening.
Current shower and thunderstorm activity is clustered in two regions
to the south and northeast of the estimated center. The center
itself remains quite broad and lacks distinct banding features, as
seen on an earlier GMI microwave pass at 2219 UTC. Given the lack of
improvement from this afternoon, the system remains a Potential
Tropical Cyclone (PTC), with an initial intensity at 30 kt. An Air
Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is in route to sample the system
tonight, and we should soon also receive an ASCAT-B scatterometer
pass to provide more information on its structure and intensity.

My best guess is that the system continues to move slowly northward
this evening, with a current motion a fairly uncertain 360/5 kt.
Over the next couple of days, a large mid-level ridge currently
parked north of the system off the southeastern U.S. coast should
shift a little eastward and build farther southeastward towards
Hispaniola. The result of this synoptic pattern should cause PTC18
to turn northwestward and gradually accelerate as it moves into the
northwestern Caribbean. This motion should bring the system near
Jamaica by Monday evening and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening.
This northwestward track should continue, likely bringing the system
over Cuba and ultimately into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 72
h. After that time, the track guidance begins to diverge, with
notable ECMWF ensemble cross-track spread in the
southwest-to-northeast direction over the Gulf of Mexico. Some of
this track spread is related to how fast a mid-latitude cutoff low
over the four corners region of the U.S. ejects out into the central
Plains. This feature will play a role in how much the mid-level
ridging ahead of the system becomes eroded when it emerges into the
Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is a little slower compared to
the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is also a little bit
slower this advisory, while nudged just a hair to the west of the
prior forecast at the end of period. However, forecast confidence on
the track in the 96-h and 120-h time-frame is lower than usual.

The intensity forecast is also uncertain, because how much the
system is able to intensify will be determined by its evolving
structure over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions in
the northwestern Caribbean are forecast to be quite favorable, with
SHIPS guidance indicating vertical wind shear remaining 10 kt or
lower while traversing very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures
for the next 48-60 h. Such an environment could favor rapid
intensification, as some of the regional-hurricane model guidance
aids were suggesting earlier today. However, this evolution depends
on when or if the system is able to develop an inner-core, and the
current poor structure argues against substantial development in the
short-term. Assuming the system does ultimately develop a better
aligned vortex, more significant intensification is forecast in the
24-60 h time frame, and the NHC intensity forecast still shows the
system becoming a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. After
PTC18 crosses Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast environment
becomes less favorable, with increasing southwesterly shear and
decreasing sea-surface temperatures, though this environment is
quite dependent on the forecast track. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is quite similar to the prior one, splitting the difference
between the more aggressive hurricane-regional models, and more
subdued global model and statistical-dynamical aids.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and
pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. The system is forecast to become a hurricane
by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from
hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and
portions of Cuba.

2. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor
this system as hurricane and tropical storm watches could be
required for portions of these areas on Monday.

3. The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later
this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range
forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if
any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly
monitor updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western
portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy
rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent
areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late
portions of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.3N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 05/0000Z 16.0N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 17.9N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 19.8N 80.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 21.8N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 25.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 040254
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 76.9W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this
system as additional watches or warnings could be required on
Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.3 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a turn more northwestward
is forecast on Monday and expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near
Jamaica by late Monday and be near or over the Cayman Islands late
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
This system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday
with additional strengthening forecast after that time. The system
could be near hurricane intensity as it passes near the Cayman
Islands in the northwestern Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by
late Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba
through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally
up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of
Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States mid to late week.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on
Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 040253
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 76.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 76.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 76.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 77.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.9N 78.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.8N 80.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.8N 82.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...115NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 76.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 032343
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this
system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance center was estimated near
latitude 13.0 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is currently
drifting slowly, but is expected to soon begin moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected to
occur tomorrow and continue for the next few days. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late Monday
and near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. This system is expected to become a tropical depression
tonight or tomorrow and steady strengthening is forecast beyond
that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands on
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba
through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally
up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of
Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States mid to late week.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on
Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 032054
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 77.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch
for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the island of Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this
system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological
service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
13.0 North, longitude 77.1 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north and then
northwest is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late Monday
and near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
This system is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and
steady strengthening is forecast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hurricane is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands on
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba
through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally
up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of
Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States mid to late week.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on
Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 032054
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the
disturbance over the south-central Caribbean Sea and their data
indicates that the system has developed a closed center. However,
deep convection is not quite organized enough to designate the
system a tropical depression at this time. Given the potential for
development and impacts to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the
next day or two, advisories are being issued on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Eighteen.

The initial motion is northeastward at 6 kt, but this is uncertain
given that the system has only recently closed off. A turn to the
north and then northwest is expected over the next couple of days as
a mid-level ridge builds across the southwestern Atlantic and the
eastern Caribbean. This motion should take the disturbance near
Jamaica by late Monday and near or over the Cayman Islands and Cuba
on Tuesday and Wednesday. The models are in relatively good
agreement during that time period, and the official track forecast
lies near the various consensus models. Once the system reaches the
Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week, the model solutions
diverge due to differences in the predicted steering patterns and
vertical depth of the system by that time. Therefore, the NHC track
forecast during that time period is of notably lower confidence.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening
during the next few days, and it seems likely that the system will
become a tropical storm before it reaches Jamaica and a hurricane
before it reaches Cuba. However, later in the week, southwesterly
vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should end the
strengthening process and likely induce some weakening once the
system reaches the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane regional models are
very aggressive, however, their intensity predictions appear
overdone, at least in the short term. The NHC intensity forecast is
closer to the statistical-dynamical models DSHP and LGEM and near
the IVCN consensus aid.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and
pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect. The system is forecast to become a
hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts
from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and
portions of Cuba.

2. Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system
as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of the
Florida Keys tonight or early Monday.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm later this week, but given uncertainties in the
long-range forecast, it is too soon to determine what, if any,
impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly
monitor updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western
portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy
rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent
areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late
portions of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.0N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 032052
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 77.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 77.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 77.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI