Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for KOINU-23
in China, Japan, Philippines

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone KOINU-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001018
Name KOINU-23
Glide number: TC-2023-000183-CHN
From - To 29 Sep - 10 Oct
Exposed countries China, Japan, Philippines
Exposed population 3.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 213 km/h Category 4
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (06 Oct 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 46 km/h 0.9 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 248 km/h 0.9 m 1098 mm 2.5
GFS 187 km/h 1.2 m 1019 mm 1.5
ECMWF 166 km/h 1.1 m 281 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Philippines, Taiwan - Tropical cyclone KOINU (ECHO 02 Oct 2023)Mon, 02 Oct 2023 09:49

  • A new tropical cyclone named KOINU -"Jenny" in the Philippines- formed over the Pacific Ocean on 27 September and started moving westward. On 2 October at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located over the northern Philippine Sea approximately 720 km south-east of the southernmost tip of Taiwan Island, with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (typhoon). Even though the TC has become a Typhoon last night, humanitarian impact in the Northern Philippines is low. 
  • KOINU is expected to continue north-west toward southern Taiwan, strenghtening and it is forecast to make landfall over this area on 4 October late in the afternoon (UTC), with maximum sustained winds up to 195 km/h.
  • Very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over the whole Taiwan Island on 4-8 October and over northern Luzon and the Batanes Islands (northern Philippines) on 2-6 October. PAGASA has issued a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal nr. 1 over this area.
Philippines, Taiwan, China - Tropical cyclone KOINU, update (ECHO 03 Oct 2023)Tue, 03 Oct 2023 09:45

  • Tropical cyclone KOINU continued northwestward over the Philippine Sea. On 3 October at 5.00 UTC, its centre was located over the northern Philippine Sea approximately 420 km south-east of the Hengchun Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds of 194 km/h (typhoon).
  • KOINU is forecast to slightly weakening and to make landfall over southern Taiwan on the late afternoon (UTC) of 4 October, with maximum sustained winds up to 155-160 km/h.
  • After that it is forecast to enter into the South China Sea and to continue west toward the southern Guangdong Province on 5-7 October, as a tropical storm.
  • Very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over northern Luzon, the Babuyan Islands and the Batanes Islands starting from 3 October, over the whole Taiwan Island from 4 October and over south-eastern China from 7 October.
  • In the Philippines, PAGASA has issued a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal nr. 2 over the Batanes, while in Taiwan the CWA has issued a sea and land typhoon red warning. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council activated its emergency preparedness response protocols in region. 
Philippines, Taiwan, China - Tropical cyclone KOINU, update (ECHO 04 Oct 2023)Wed, 04 Oct 2023 10:07

  • Tropical cyclone KOINU passed over the Luzon Strait and continued westward over the the northwestern Philippine Sea. On 4 October at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located over the northern Philippine Sea approximately 270 km east of southern Taiwan, with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (typhoon).
  • KOINU is forecast to cross southern Taiwan in the night between 4 and 5 October. After that it is forecast to enter into the South China Sea and it could approach the southern coast of Guangdong Province between 8 and 9 October, as a tropical storm.
  • The National Disaster Risk Reduction and management Council (NDRRMC) reports nine displaced people after the passage of KOINU in northern Philippines.
  • Heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge is reported over northern Luzon, Batanes and the Babuyan Islands (northern Philippines), a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 3 over the northern portion of Batanes (Luzon) has been issued.  
  • Very heavy rainfall, strong winds over the whole Taiwan Island  and over south-eastern China, red warnings have been issued over most of Taiwan. The China National Meteorological Centre maintained the yellow alert for typhoon (the third highest among the four tier system).
KOINU-23 - EC/ECHO daily mapWed, 04 Oct 2023 18:08

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Philippines, Taiwan, China - Tropical cyclone KOINU, update (ECHO 05 Oct 2023)Thu, 05 Oct 2023 10:24

  • Tropical cyclone KOINU crossed southern Taiwan and entered the South China Sea. On 5 October at 5.15 UTC, its centre was located 61 km west of the southern part of Pingtung County (southern Taiwan) with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h with gusts of 191 km/h.
  • In Taiwan, 190 people have been injured, most of them along the west coast of the island, including Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung. In addition, most domestic flights and 42 international flights have been cancelled on 5 October. In the Philippines, KOINU with the combined effect of Southwest Monsson affected 275 people and displaced 194 others.
  • KOINU is forecast to move west-northwest over the South China Sea and is expected to pass close to the southern coast of Guangdong Province in south-eastern China on 6-10 October.
  • For the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over most of Taiwan (particularly the southern parts) and the coastal areas of Guangdong Province.
China, Taiwan - Tropical cyclone KOINU, update (ECHO 09 Oct 2023)Mon, 09 Oct 2023 11:07

  • Tropical cyclone KOINU passed over the Hengchun Peninsula, on the southernmost tip of Taiwan on 5 October as a typhoon and continued westward over the South China Sea on 5-8 October. On 9 October at 5.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea, close to the Yangjiang City- south-western Guangdong Province- with maximum sustained winds of 111 km/h (tropical storm).
  • KOINU is forecast to continue south-west over the sea, further weakening, and to make landfall over the Hainan Island in southern China in the morning (UTC) of 10 October, with maximum sustained winds up to 75 km/h. After that it is forecast to enter into the Gulf of Tonkin on 11-12 October, further weakening and dissipating.
  • Very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over the whole Taiwan Island and Guangdong, Fujian and Guangxi Provinces on 9-11 October and over the Hainan Island on 10-12 October.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),