Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICOLE-22
in United States, Bahamas

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone NICOLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000948
Name NICOLE-22
From - To 07 Nov - 11 Nov
Exposed countries United States, Bahamas
Exposed population 570 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 120 km/h Category 1
Maximum storm surge 1.3 m (12 Nov 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 56 km/h 1.3 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 122 km/h 1.8 m 340 mm 0.5
GFS 108 km/h 0.9 m 358 mm 0.5
ECMWF n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
The Bahamas, USA - Hurricane NICOLE (ECHO 08 Nov 2022)Tue, 08 Nov 2022 11:26

  • The newly formed Hurricane NICOLE is moving west over the Atlantic Ocean, towards the northern Bahamas. On 8 November at 6.00 UTC its center was located about 570 km east of the eastern coast of Abaco Islands (northern Bahamas). 
  • NICOLE is expected to strengthen, making its first landfall over Abaco Islands in the midday of 9 November, with maximum sustained winds up to 110 km/h (Tropical Storm). After that, it is expected to reach the south-eastern coast of the Florida Peninsula in the morning of 10 November and is forecast to make landfall close to Port St. Lucia as a Cat.1 Hurricane. 
  • In the Bahamas, authorities are implementing evacuations for persons living in vulnerable areas that could be affected by the passage of NICOLE, as reported by media. In Florida, a state of emergency has been issued for 34 Counties, as NICOLE could affect the east coast of Florida, including areas that had been hit by Hurricane Ian on 28-29 September. 
  • Storm surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for northern and central Bahamas, and for the eastern coast of Florida, as heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected over these areas from 8 November.
Bahamas, USA - Hurricane NICOLE, update (ECHO 09 Nov 2022)Wed, 09 Nov 2022 11:20

  • Tropical Storm NICOLE is moving towards the northern Bahamas, and on 9 November at 6.00 UTC its center was located about 170 km east of the eastern coast of Abaco Islands (northern Bahamas), with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h.
  • NICOLE is expected to strengthen to a Cat.1  Hurricane and approach Abaco Islands in the afternoon of 9 November. After that, it is forecast to make landfall in the morning of 10 November in an area close to Vero Beach on the south-eastern coast of Florida, as a Hurricane Cat. 1.
  • In the Bahamas, a number of shelters have been organised to host the population across Abaco, Grand Bahama, Andros, Bimini and Berry Islands. According to media, storm surge has been reported across Great Abaco. There are concerns about people living in vulnerable communities that were affected by the passage of hurricane DORIAN in September 2019. In Florida, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for counties in south-eastern Florida Peninsula, while airport activities have been suspended. 
  • Storm surge, hurricane, and tropical storm warnings have been issued for northern and central Bahamas, and for the eastern coast of Florida and Georgia, as heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected over these areas from 9 November.
NICOLE-22 - EC/ECHO daily mapWed, 09 Nov 2022 17:01

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Bahamas, USA - Tropical cyclone NICOLE, update (ECHO 10 Nov 2022)Thu, 10 Nov 2022 12:13

  • After passing over northern Bahamas in the afternoon of 9 November, tropical cyclone NICOLE is heading towards the eastern coast of southern Florida, making landfall on the morning of 10 November. Its center was located about 20 km east of Port Pierce (Florida) and about 150 km north-west of western Grand Bahama, with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (Cat.1 Hurricane), on 10 November at 7.00 UTC.
  • Flooding and storm surge was reported across Grand Bahama, Great Abaco, and New Providence, while public activities have been suspended. In Florida, evacuation orders took effect in parts of Palm Beach County, Volusia County, and Flagler County, while some airports and school districts have closed. 
  • After the landfall, NICOLE is expected to move north-westwards on 10-11 November over the Florida Peninsula, as a tropical storm. After that, it is forecast to downgrade to a tropical depression, as it turns northwards and moves across Georgia and the Carolinas.
  • Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings are still in effect for northern and central Bahamas, coastal Florida, Georgia, and southern Carolina, as heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected over these areas. Storm surge warning has been issued for the coasts of Florida and Georgia.
USA - Hurricane NICOLE, update (ECHO 11 Nov 2022)Fri, 11 Nov 2022 11:53

  • Hurricane NICOLE made landfall in the morning of 10 November over south-eastern Florida Peninsula, as a Cat. 1 Hurricane (max sustained winds of 120 km/h), and continued moving over the Florida Peninsula as a tropical storm. As of 11 November at 3.00 UTC NICOLE was downgraded to a tropical depression and its centre was located in south-western Georgia, close to Cairo municipality. 
  • According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and media, in Florida, there have been two fatalities related to NICOLE, while about 1,500 people have been evacuated to 52 public shelters.
  • Power outages affected nearly 355,000 households. Storm surge, floods, and river overflow have affected the Florida Peninsula, causing structural damage to houses and roads. National authorities expanded the State of Emergency to all 67 counties of Florida. 
  • NICOLE is forecast to move northwards over the eastern USA as a tropical depression, crossing Georgia and the Carolinas, and dissipate in the early morning of 12 October over Virginia. 
  • On 11-13 November, moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast over the eastern USA.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2022. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (39), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),