Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000775
Name SEROJA-21
From - To 04 Apr - 11 Apr
Exposed countries Australia, Indonesia
Exposed population 60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h Category 1
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (11 Apr 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 130 km/h 1.2 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 166 km/h 1.6 m 787 mm 0.5
GFS 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5
ECMWF 119 km/h 2 m 666 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Australia - Tropical Cyclone SEROJA (ECHO 06 Apr 2021)Tue, 06 Apr 2021 15:15

  • Tropical Cyclone SEROJA formed over the Savu Sea (eastern Indonesia, bordering Timor-Leste) on 4 April, moving south-west towards the Western Australia coast. On 6 April at 0.00 UTC its centre was approx. 130 km south of Sumba Island (East Nusa Tenggara) and 730 km nort-west of Derby Town (Western Australia), with maximum sustained winds of 102 km/h.
  • Following its passage, the Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management reports 128 fatalities, 72 people missing and 8,424 people displaced in East Nusa Tenggara. The Government of Timor-Leste reports 27 fatalities and 7,000 displaced in Dili.
  • SEROJA is forecast to strengthen as it moves south-west, with winds up to 195 km/h possible on 10 April.
  • Very heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over East Nusa Tenggara Province on 6-7 April, and the central coast of Western Australia on 10-11 April. Moderate rain is forecast over Timor-Leste on 6 April.
  • The European Commission's Copernicus emergency satelite mapping service was activated on 4 April to support damage assessments around Dili.
Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Australia - Tropical Cyclone SEROJA update (ECHO 07 Apr 2021)Wed, 07 Apr 2021 15:18

  • Tropical Cyclone SEROJA continued south-west, south of eastern Indonesia and Timor-Leste. On 7 April at 0.00 UTC it was located approximately 670 km north-west of Brome Town (northern Western Australia), with maximum sustained winds of 83 km/h.
  • According to national authorities, 128 died in East Nusa Tenggara Province (Indonesia) and 27 in Timor-Leste following its passage. More than 70 people are missing in Indonesia and over 15,400 displaced in both countries.
  • SEROJA is forecast to continue south-west, strengthening before turning south-east and making landfall on 11 April over the central west coast of Western Australia, with maximum sustained winds up to 175 km/h.
  • Very heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over the central and southern coast of Western Australia on 10-12 April.
  • The European Commission's Copernicus emergency satelite mapping service was activated on 4 April to support the damage assessment in Timor-Leste. 2 maps have been produced so far.
Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Australia - Tropical Cyclone SEROJA update (ECHO 08 Apr 2021)Thu, 08 Apr 2021 15:27

  • Tropical Cyclone SEROJA continues moving south-west over the Indian Ocean, and on 8 April at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 580 km north-west of Karratha City (coastal Pilbara Region, Western Australia), with maximum sustained winds of 102 km/h.
  • Meanwhile, the impact across eastern Indonesia and Timor-Leste has increased after the passage of SEROJA. National authorities in Indonesia report 138 fatalities, 61 missing individuals, and up to 1,114 destroyed or damaged houses across East Nusa Tenggara Province. In Timor-Leste, heavy rainfall that started affecting the country since the end of March, resulted in flash floods and landslides. According to UN OCHA, at least 42 people died and up to 9,779 people have been temporarily displaced in Dili capital city.
  • The International Disaster Charter and Copernicus Emergency Management Service have been activated to support the damage assessment across Timor-Leste.
  • SEROJA is forecast to strengthen as it moves south and could make landfall over Peron Peninsula (central Western Australia) on 11 April, with maximum sustained winds up to 205 km/h.
  • From 10 April, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge have been forecast for the West Coast of Western Australia, between Perth and Coral Bay.
Australia - Tropical Cyclone SEROJA update (ECHO 09 Apr 2021)Fri, 09 Apr 2021 15:34

  • Tropical Cyclone SEROJA is approaching the West Coast of Western Australia, its centre approximately 500 km north-west of North West Cape (north-west of Western Australia) on 9 April at 0:00 UTC, with maximum sustained winds 85 km/h. 
  • SEROJA is expected to make landfall on 11 April close to Kalbarri Town (central West Coast of Western Australia), with maximum sustained winds up to 155 km/h. Residents between Perth and Coral Bay are on high alert.
  • Strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge are forecast for the West Coast of Western Australia, between Lancelin and Coral Bay for the next 24 hours.
  • A severe weather warning is in place for strong winds in North West Cape owing to another Tropical Cyclone ODETTE, located about 1,100 km north-west of North West Cape. 
SEROJA-21 - Copernicus EMS activation (EMSR507)Sun, 04 Apr 2021 19:04

EMSR507: Copernicus Emergency Management Service has been activated
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EMSR (2), EC-JRC (38), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),