Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for HILARY-23
in Mexico

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone HILARY-23 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000993
Name HILARY-23
Glide number: TC-2023-000150-MEX
From - To 16 Aug - 21 Aug
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 231 km/h Category 4
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (21 Aug 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 46 km/h 1 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 230 km/h 1 m 484 mm 0.5
GFS 173 km/h 1 m 559 mm 0.5
ECMWF 101 km/h 1 m 453 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Mexico, USA - Hurricane HILARY (ECHO 18 Aug 2023)Fri, 18 Aug 2023 09:23

  • A new tropical cyclone named HILARY formed over the Eastern Pacific Ocean far off the coast of southern Mexico on 16 August and started moving north-west toward the Baja California Peninsula. On 18 August at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located over the Ocean approximately 650 km south of Cabo San Lucas City (far southern Baja California Peninsula), with maximum sustained winds of 220 km/h (Category 3 Hurricane).
  • On the forecast track, HILARY is forecast to continue moving northwestward over the Ocean and it is expected to pass very close to the northern Baja California Sur State (near Puerto Escondido City) on 20 August in the morning (UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h (Category 1 Hurricane).
  • On 19-21 August, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over the Baja California Peninsula and southern California (USA). NOAA has issued a Hurricane Watch for most of the Baja California Sur State and a Tropical Storm Warning for the rest of the peninsula.
Mexico, USA - Tropical cyclone HILARY, update (ECHO 21 Aug 2023)Mon, 21 Aug 2023 11:01

  • Tropical cyclone HILARY made landfall over the Baja California State (northern Mexico, bordering with California State, USA), near San Quintin City, on 20 August in the afternoon (UTC), as a tropical storm. On 21 August at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located inland over the greater Los Angeles area (southern California), with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h (tropical storm).
  • In Mexico, media report, as of 21 August, two fatalities, of which one in Santa Rosalía in Mulegé Municipality (Baja California Sur) and one more in Culiacán City (Sinaloa). In the USA, FEMA reports approximately 4,500 voluntary evacuations orders across the Los Angeles County.
  • On the forecast track, HILARY is forecast to continue moving northward inland over southern California, further weakening and dissipating on 21 August.
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over the northern Baja California State (Mexico) and southern California (USA). NOAA has issued a Tropical Storm Warning over this area.
USA - Tropical storm HILARY, update (ECHO 22 Aug 2023)Tue, 22 Aug 2023 11:40

  • Heavy rainfall, associated to the passage of the tropical storm HILARY and its remnants on 21 August, affected southern California (USA), causing floods that have resulted in evacuations and damage. The most affected were San Diego, Sacramento, San Bernardino, Orange, Los Angeles, Riverside and Ventura Counties.
  • The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports, as of 21 August, approximately 9,000 avacuated people, including in three evacuation centres across the affected area. In addition, media report around 1,000 canceled flights and up to 57,000 power outages.
  • Over the next 24 hours, no more rainfall is forecast over central and southern California.
USA - Tropical storm HILARY, update (ECHO 24 Aug 2023)Thu, 24 Aug 2023 11:05

  • Heavy rainfall, associated to the passage of the tropical storm HILARY and its remnants on 20-21 August, affected southern California (USA), causing floods and mudslides that have resulted in evacuations and damage. The most affected were San Bernardino, San Diego, Los Angeles, Riverside and Ventura Counties.
  • Media report, as of 24 August, one missing person, around 800 isolated people and about 30 rescued people across the San Bernardino County. In San Diego County, media report approximately 400 evacuated people and nine rescued people. In addition, 40 rescued people were reported throughout Riverside County.
  • Over the next 24 hours, moderate rainfall with thunderstorms are forecast over central-eastern California.
USA - Tropical storm HILARY, update (ECHO 25 Aug 2023)Fri, 25 Aug 2023 10:29

  • Heavy rainfall, associated to the passage of the remnants of tropical storm HILARY on 21-23 August, affected southern, central and northern Arizona (south-western USA), causing flash floods and some severe weather related incidents (due to the strong wind) that have resulted in evacuations and damage. The most affected area were Coconino, Yavapai and Yuma Counties and the Grand Canyon National Park.
  • Media report, as of 25 August, around 170 evacuated people (of which a number of these in one shelter) across the Coconino County and the area of the Grand Canyon National Park. Several damaged houses were also reported across the Yuma County.
  • Over the next 24 hours, more rainfall with thunderstorms are forecast over most of Arizona.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Michigan and Ohio face thunderstorms resulting in power outages and de.. 8/25/2023 5:57:00 PM.

Mother nature is showcasing her full fury in the United States . The country recently battled the devastating wildfires in Hawaii and destructive Hurricane Hilary. On Thursday and Friday, Michigan and Ohio faced thunderstorms which caused p
...(more)
Hilary grows to a category 3 hurricane in the Pacific and heads for th.. 8/25/2023 4:18:00 PM.

Santo Domingo.- As of Thursday night, Hurricane Hilary has escalated to a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale while traversing the Mexican Pacific. The National Meteorological Service (SMN) of Mexico has predicted that the stor
...(more)
San diego 8/25/2023 3:07:00 PM.

Authorities are searching for the pilot of an F/A-18 Hornet that crashed near MCAS in California just before midnight on Thursday. A viral post purported to show a pod of dolphins fleeing out farther to sea during Tropical Storm Hilary.
...(more)
Hilary reminds us commercial real estate has stake in weather turmoil,.. 8/25/2023 2:59:00 PM.

On Wednesday of last week, the first reports of a tropical storm brewing off the coast of Baja were filed. Over the next few days, the storm gained intensity and at its peak had winds allowing it to claim Category 4 status – one below the l
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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), DesInventar (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),