Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for HILARY-23
in Mexico

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Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 36.1N 118.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.1N 118.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 42.0N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211000Z POSITION NEAR 38.1N 117.8W.
21AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 25
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210600Z IS 1004 MB.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 210849
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2023

The circulation of Hilary has become quite diffuse tonight, making
it difficult to track a coherent low-level center over the complex
topography of southern California and Nevada. Satellite imagery
indicates the storm has lost all tropical characteristics, as strong
upper-level southerly winds have stripped away most of the
associated shower activity well to the north. Hilary no longer
satisfies the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and thus it has become
post-tropical. Based on recent surface observations, the estimated
maximum sustained winds are reduced to 30 kt for this advisory.

Despite its post-tropical classification, the system is still
expected to produce heavy rainfall, significant flooding, and gusty
winds as it races northward across the western United States today.
Users should refer to products issued by their local National
Weather Service office for more specific information on these
threats. The circulation of post-tropical Hilary has been
significantly disrupted by land interaction, and the system is
likely to dissipate later today.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center on post-tropical Hilary. Future information on this
system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction
Center beginning at 800 AM PDT, under AWIPS header TCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Across the Southwestern United States, the ongoing and historic
amount of rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening to locally
catastrophic flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including landslides,
mudslides, and debris flows today. Localized flooding impacts, some
significant, are also expected across northern portions of the
Intermountain West into Tuesday morning.

2. Strong and gusty winds are expected to persist across portions
of the western United States today, particularly in and near areas
of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 38.3N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
12H 21/1800Z 42.0N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 210846
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...CONTINUED LIFE-THREATENING AND LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY...
...NEXT ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 117.9W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM N OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary
was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 117.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 29 mph (46
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the
forecast track, the center of post-tropical Hilary will move quickly
across Nevada today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Post-tropical Hilary is forecast to dissipate later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Hilary is expected to produce additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated storm total amounts
to 12 inches, across portions of Southern California and Southern
Nevada through today. Continued flash and urban flooding, locally
catastrophic, is expected.

Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday
morning, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for this storm can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

WIND: Post-tropical Hilary is still expected to produce strong and
gusty winds in and near areas of elevated terrain today.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect portions of the Baja
California Peninsula and southern California through this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Post-tropical Hilary. Future information on this system
can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction
Center beginning at 800 AM PDT, under AWIPS header TCPEP4, WMO
header WTPZ34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 210844
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 117.9W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 117.9W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 118.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.0N 117.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 117.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON POST-TROPICAL HILARY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMEP4, WMO HEADER
WTPZ24 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 210546
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 118.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF BAKERSFIELD CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings for Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu California
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 118.1 West. Hilary is
moving toward the north-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and a
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected to continue on
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will cross into
southern Nevada early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is expected, and Hilary is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km),
primarily to the east of the center. A elevated weather station
near Five Mile, California recently reported a sustained wind of 37
mph (59 km/h) and a gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches,
across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through
early Monday. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is
expected.

Intense heavy rainfall associated with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States through early Monday morning. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches, are expected across portions of southern California and
southern Nevada, leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding.
Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday
morning, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for this storm can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still possible during the next
few hours in the warning area in southern California.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast
of the Gulf of California through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two will be possible across southeast
California, northwest Arizona, southern Nevada and far southwest
Utah.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California through early
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 33.6N 117.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 117.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 39.8N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210400Z POSITION NEAR 35.7N 117.8W.
21AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 210252
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Radar images, satellite data, and surface observations indicate the
center of Hilary is becoming more diffuse while moving near the
coast of southern California. Rainbands associated with the storm
continue to spread northward across the southwestern United States.
The wind field of Hilary has become very asymmetric this evening,
with tropical-storm-force winds now confined to the eastern portion
of the circulation well away from the center. Based on the latest
observations and assuming some continued decay over land, the
initial intensity is set at 40 kt.

Hilary remains embedded within strong southerly flow between a ridge
over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low near the
central California coast. Thus, a fast north-northwestward motion is
expected to continue until dissipation occurs. The forecast track
with this update has shifted slightly left of the previous one based
on the adjusted initial position of the storm. Ultimately, this is
of little consequence as the rainfall and wind impacts extend far
from the center. Continued land interaction and strong upper-level
winds will result in additional degradation of the storm's
structure, and Hilary is forecast to become post-tropical by early
Monday. Regardless, gusty winds are expected to continue well to the
east of Hilary's center, especially in areas of higher terrain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Across the Southwestern United States, the ongoing and
potentially historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause
life-threatening to locally catastrophic flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows through
early Monday morning. Localized flooding impacts, some significant,
are also expected across northern portions of the Intermountain
West.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm Warning area through
tonight. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near
areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread well
inland across the western United States.

3. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja
California Peninsula and southern California through early Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 33.9N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 39.8N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 210251
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...CENTER OF HILARY MOVING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 118.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and
for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula south of San
Felipe. The warning has also been discontinued south of Puerto
Penasco along the coast of mainland Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Felipe to Puerto Penasco, Mexico
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 118.2 West. Hilary is
moving toward the north-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue into Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will move across portions of southern
California through early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected to continue, and Hilary is forecast to become
a post-tropical cyclone by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km),
primarily to the east of the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph (66
km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at the
Salton Sea in southern California.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches,
across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through
Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is
expected.

Intense heavy rainfall associated with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States through early Monday morning. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches, are expected across portions of southern California and
southern Nevada leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding.
Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday
morning, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for this storm can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few
hours within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf
of California. Tropical storm conditions will continue into tonight
in the warning area in southern California.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast
of the Gulf of California through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two will be possible this evening
across southeast California, northwest Arizona, southern Nevada and
far southwest Utah.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California through early
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 210251
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 118.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 118.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 117.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.8N 118.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 118.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 202359
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...CENTER OF HILARY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 116.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF PALM SPRINGS CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning south of San Jose de Las Palmas on the west coast and south
of Isla San Luis on the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula.
The warning has also been discontinue south of Puerto Libertad on
northwest coast of mainland Mexico.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula west coast from San Jose de Las Palms
northward
* Baja California peninsula east coast from Isla San Luis northward
* Mainland Mexico north of Puerto Libertad
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located inland near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 116.7 West.
Hilary is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h) and the
storm is expected to accelerate even more as it moves
north-northwestward to northward during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Hilary will move across southern
California this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected to continue, and Hilary is forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone overnight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust
to 69 mph (111 km/h) was reported in Yuma, Arizona within the past
couple of hours. A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust
to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported at Imperial County
Airport in Imperial, California.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches,
across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is
expected.

Intense heavy rainfall associated with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States through early Monday morning. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches, are expected across portions of southern California and
southern Nevada leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding.
Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday
morning, resulting in localized significant flash flooding.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for this storm can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through the evening
in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the northern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula. Tropical storm conditions will
continue into tonight in the warning area in southern California.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast
of the Gulf of California through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through this evening over
southeast California, western Arizona, southern Nevada, and far
southwest Utah.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 018
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 09E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 30.1N 115.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 115.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 35.8N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 41.8N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 116.3W.
20AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210400Z,
211000Z AND 211600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 202049 CCA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 116.1W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 210SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 116.1W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.8N 117.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 41.8N 117.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 116.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 202036
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Hilary made landfall over the northern Baja California Peninsula a
few hours ago with maximum winds estimated to be around 55 kt.
Since then the storm has continued to move north-northwestward with
the center now nearing the California/Mexico border. Maximum
sustained winds are now estimated to be near 50 kt based on the
earlier aircraft data and satellite estimates. Surface
observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds have spread
into southern California and there have been a few reports of gusts
around hurricane force. In addition, radar images show that bands
of heavy rain have spread across portions of the southwestern United
States and this will continue through early Monday.

The storm is moving quickly to the north-northwest, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 345/20 kt. An even faster motion to
the north-northwest is expected during the next day or so as Hilary
moves in the fast flow between a ridge over the south-central U.S.
and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast.
Little change was made to the previous track forecast.

Continued weakening due to dry air, and land interaction is
expected, but Hilary is forecast to remain a tropical storm while it
moves over southern California through tonight. The strongest winds
are expected to be to the east of the center and in areas of high
terrain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations for flooding impacts across the Southwestern United
States should be completed with the peak intensity of heavy rainfall
expected later today through early Monday morning. The potentially
historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening to
locally catastrophic flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including
landslides, mudslides, and debris flows through early Monday
morning. Localized flooding impacts, some significant, are also
expected across northern portions of the Intermountain West.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across the
northern portion of the Baja California Peninsula within the
Tropical Storm Warning area during the next few hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm Warning
area through tonight. Winds could be particularly strong and
gusty in and near areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are
expected to spread well inland across the western United States.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 31.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 35.8N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 41.8N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 202035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...CORE OF HILARY NEARING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 116.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning south of Punta Eugenia on the west coast and south of Bahia
San Bautista on the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula west coast from Punta Eugenia northward
* Baja California peninsula east coast from Bahia San Juan Bautista
northward
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located inland near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 116.1 West.
Hilary is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h) and the
storm is expected to accelerate even more as it moves
north-northwestward to northward during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Hilary will move across southern
California in the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected to continue, but Hilary is forecast to remain
a tropical storm while it moves across southern California.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 47 mph (75 km/h) with a gust
of 70 mph (113 km/h) was reported at Sill Hill, California. A
sustained wind of 47 mph (75 km/h) with a gust of 72 mph (116 km/h)
was reported at Hauser Mountain, California.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches,
across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is
expected.

Intense heavy rainfall associated with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States through early Monday morning. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches, are expected across portions of southern California and
southern Nevada leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding.
Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday
morning, resulting in localized significant flash flooding.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for this storm can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through the evening
in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Baja California
Peninsula. Tropical storm conditions will continue through tonight
in the warning area in southern California.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east
of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California today
through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through this evening over
southeast California, western Arizona, southern Nevada, and far
southwest Utah.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 202035
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 116.1W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 420SE 360SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 116.1W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.8N 117.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 41.8N 117.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 116.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201754
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...HILARY MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 115.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula west coast from Puerto San
Andresito northward
* Baja California peninsula east coast from Loreto northward
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located on the coast near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 115.6 West.
Hilary is moving quickly toward the north-northwest near 25 mph (41
km/h). Hilary is expected to accelerate even more as it moves
north-northwestward to northward during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Hilary will move over the northern
portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next few hours,
and then move across southern California later this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected, but Hilary is expected to remain a
tropical storm before it reaches southern California.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center. An observation in Round Potrero, California,
recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (64 km/h) with a gust
to 63 mph (102 km/h). An observation in Crestwood, California,
recorded a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 53 mph
(85 km/h). In Playa El Paraiso, Mexico, an observation recorded
sustained winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust of 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches,
across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is
expected.

Intense heavy rainfall associated with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States through early Monday morning. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches, are expected across portions of southern California and
southern Nevada leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding.
Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday
morning, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for this storm can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical
storm warning area within the Baja California Peninsula and will
continue through today. Tropical storm conditions are beginning in
the tropical storm warning in southern California and will spread
northward through the afternoon.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east
of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California today
through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through this evening over
southeast California, western Arizona, southern Nevada, and far
southwest Utah.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 28.4N 115.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 115.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 33.5N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 39.9N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 116.0W.
20AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
201200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 201437
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

The core of Hilary continues to move quickly north-northwestward
along or just off the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula.
Heavy rains are streaming northward and are now affecting portions
of western Mexico, the northern Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern United States. The satellite appearance of Hilary
continues to degrade as dry and stable air wraps into the
circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating
Hilary and found that the pressure has increased to 984 mb and
maximum winds have dropped to near 60 kt, making Hilary a tropical
storm.

The storm is accelerating to the north-northwest, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 345/22 kt. An even faster motion to
the north-northwest is expected during the next day or so as Hilary
moves in the fast flow between a ridge over the south-central U.S.
and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast.
The center of Hilary is forecast to move into southern California
this afternoon and dissipate over the western U.S. on Monday.

Continued weakening due to cool waters, dry air, and land
interaction is expected, but Hilary is forecast to remain a
tropical storm before it reaches southern California later today.
The strongest winds are expected to be to the east of the center
and in areas of high terrain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations for flooding impacts across the Southwestern United
States should be completed with the peak intensity of heavy rainfall
expected later today through early Monday morning. The potentially
historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening to
locally catastrophic flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including
landslides, mudslides, and debris flows through early Monday
morning. Localized flooding impacts, some significant, are also
expected across northern portions of the Intermountain West.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the central and
northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in
portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm Warning
area. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near
areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread
well inland across the western United States.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 29.7N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 33.5N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 39.9N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...HILARY VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 115.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch and
downgraded the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Baja California Peninsula.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning south of Puerto San Andresito on the west coast and south
of Loreto on the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula west coast from Puerto San
Andresito northward
* Baja California peninsula east coast from Loreto northward
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 115.9 West. Hilary is
moving quickly toward the north-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h).
Hilary is expected to accelerate even more as it moves
north-northwestward to northward during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Hilary will move near or over the
northern portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next
few hours, and then move across southern California this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected, but Hilary is expected to remain
a tropical storm before it reaches southern California.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches,
across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is
expected.

Intense heavy rainfall associated with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States through early Monday morning. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches, are expected across portions of southern California and
southern Nevada leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding.
Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday
morning, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for this storm can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical
storm warning area within the Baja California Peninsula and will
continue through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in southern California this afternoon.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east
of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California today
through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through this evening over
southeast California, western Arizona, southern Nevada, and far
southwest Utah.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 201436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 115.9W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......210NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 420SE 360SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 115.9W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.9N 118.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 115.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201142
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...HILARY VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 115.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula west coast from Punta Abreojos to Santa
Fe
* Baja California peninsula east coast from San Evaristo northward
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. The hurricane is
moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). Hilary is
expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward
during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of
Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula during the next few hours, and then move across
southern California this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected, but Hilary is likely to still be a
hurricane while it passes near the west coast of the central Baja
California Peninsula this morning. Hilary is expected to weaken to
a tropical storm before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km). A sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust of
67 mph (108 km/h) were recently reported at Isla Cedros, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula
through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is
expected, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States, most intense from today into Monday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California
and southern Nevada. Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is
expected. Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through
Tuesday morning, resulting in localized, some significant, flash
flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this morning and are possible within the hurricane
watch area later today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin in southern California later today.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east
of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California today
through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today from mid-morning through
the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave
Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 26.3N 114.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 114.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.8N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 36.5N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 42.3N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 115.4W.
20AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z
IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 200855
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

The coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with
Hilary has gradually diminished. However, numerous convective
bands over the eastern semicircle of the circulation continue to
spread northward over the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of
California, and into the extreme southwestern United States. Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Hilary
is slowly weakening as evidenced by flight-level winds and
dropsonde measurements of the central pressure. The advisory
intensity estimate is set at 75 kt, although this might be a little
generous.

Hilary is beginning to accelerate toward the north-northwest and the
initial motion estimate is now 345/18 kt. Over the next day or two,
the cyclone should continue to accelerate within the flow between a
strong mid-level ridge over the south-central United States and a
mid- to upper-level low near the central California coast. This
motion will bring the center of Hilary near the northern Baja
California peninsula and then into southern California later today.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, albeit
a little faster in accord with the latest consensus model guidance.
Users are reminded that the exact details of the track forecast,
including where Hilary might make landfall, are of little overall
importance since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend far from the
center. These hazards are already spreading northward well in
advance of the arrival of the center.

Hilary should continue to weaken due to cooler waters, the intrusion
of drier air into the circulation, and increasing vertical shear.
However, confidence remains high that the system will still be of
tropical storm intensity when it moves into southern California.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations for flooding impacts associated with Hilary should
be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rainfall is about to
begin. In the Southwestern United States, the potentially historic
amount of rainfall is expected to cause flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows.
Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding impacts are expected
through Monday morning.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west-central coast of
the Baja California Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
during the next few hours, and are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area a little later today.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in
portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm Warning
area. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near
areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread
well inland across the western United States.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 27.4N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 30.8N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 36.5N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1800Z 42.3N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200853
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 115.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula south of
Santa Fe, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the east
coast of the Baja California peninsula south of San Evaristo. The
government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula west coast from Punta Abreojos to Santa
Fe
* Baja California peninsula east coast from San Evaristo northward
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 115.0 West. The hurricane is
moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). Hilary is
expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula during the next few hours, and then move across
southern California this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected, but Hilary is likely to still be a
hurricane while it passes near the west coast of the central Baja
California Peninsula this morning. Hilary is expected to weaken to
a tropical storm before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km). A sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 67 mph
(108 km/h) were recently reported at Isla Cedros, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula
through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is
expected, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States, most intense from today into Monday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California
and southern Nevada. Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is
expected. Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through
Tuesday morning, resulting in localized, some significant, flash
flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this morning and are possible within the hurricane
watch area later today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin in southern California later today.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east
of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California today
through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today from mid-morning through
the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave
Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 200853
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
0900 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 115.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 420SE 390SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 115.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.8N 116.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.5N 117.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.3N 118.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 115.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200557
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1200 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...HEAVY RAINS FROM HILARY SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 114.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Todos Santos
* Baja California peninsula east coast from Los Barilles northward
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 114.9 West. The
hurricane is moving toward the north-northwest near 20 mph (31
km/h). Hilary is expected to accelerate as it moves
north-northwestward to northward during the next day or two. On
the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the
west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula this morning and
then move across southern California this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but Hilary is likely to
still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula this morning. Hilary is expected to weaken to
a tropical storm before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km). A sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust of 66 mph
(106 km/h) were recently reported at Isla Cedros, Mexico.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula
through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is
expected, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States, peaking during the next day or so.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10
inches, are expected across portions of southern California and
southern Nevada. Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is expected.
Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized
significant flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this morning and are possible within the hurricane
watch area later today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in southern California later today.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California
today through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today from mid-morning
through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley,
Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 24.3N 114.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 114.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 28.3N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 33.6N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 39.5N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 114.7W.
20AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 20000Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z,
201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 200247
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Hilary's cloud pattern has continued to gradually decay this
evening. The eye is no longer discernible and the convective cloud
tops have warmed near the center. However, there are plenty of
curved bands around the circulation, and these continue to spread
well northward into the Baja California Peninsula. Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease
and the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt. Another Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is schedule overnight which
should provide better information about the structure and intensity
of the cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 345/15 kt.
The flow between a strong mid-level ridge over the south-central
United States and a mid- to upper-level low over off the central
coast of California will steer Hilary north-northwestward at an
increasingly faster pace during the next 12 to 24 hours. This will
bring the center of Hilary near the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula late tonight or early Sunday and into southern
California by late Sunday afternoon. The NHC track forecast is
again very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the
middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Users are
reminded that the exact details of the track forecast, including
where Hilary might make landfall, are of little overall importance
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend far from the
center. These hazards are already spreading northward over the
Baja California Peninsula well in advance of the arrival of the
center.

Cooler waters, drier air, and increasing vertical wind will continue
to cause a decrease in intensity as Hillary moves northward.
However, the cyclone is expected to still be a hurricane when it
moves near or over the west-central coast of the Baja California
Peninsula overnight, and confidence remains high that Hilary will
move into southern California as a tropical storm.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations for flooding impacts associated with Hilary should
be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rainfall will begin well
in advance of the center. In the Southwestern United States, the
potentially historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause flash,
urban, and arroyo flooding including landslides, mudslides, and
debris flows. Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding impacts are
expected early Sunday through early Monday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west-central coast of
the Baja California Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Sunday morning, and are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area on Sunday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Sunday in
portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm
Warning area. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and
near areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread
well inland across the western United States.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 25.3N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 28.3N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 33.6N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1200Z 39.5N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200247
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 114.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning on the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula south of
Los Barilles, and on the west coast of the Baja California
Peninsula south of Todos Santos,

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Todos Santos
* Baja California peninsula east coast from Los Barilles northward
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 114.6 West. Hilary is moving
toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across
southern California Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but Hilary is likely to
still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula later tonight. Hilary is expected to weaken to
a tropical storm before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km). A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of
69 mph (111 km/h) were reported at Loreto, Mexico, within the past
couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula
through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally
catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of
the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States, peaking during the next day or so.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10
inches, are expected across portions of southern California and
southern Nevada. Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is expected.
Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized
significant flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the
hurricane watch area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning
area and will spread northward tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area through
early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
southern California on Sunday.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday
through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning
through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley,
Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 200246
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 114.6W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......230NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 420SE 360SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 114.6W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 115.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.6N 117.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.5N 118.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 114.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 192351
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
600 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 114.2W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be completed.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.2 West. Hilary is moving
toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across
southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but Hilary will still be a
hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California
Peninsula tonight. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm
before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km). A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of
58 mph (93 km/h) were recently reported at Loreto, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula
through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally
catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of
the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States,
peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to
catastrophic flooding is expected. Elsewhere across portions of the
Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
expected, resulting in localized significant flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the
hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
California on Sunday.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday
through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning
through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley,
Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 22.9N 113.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 113.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.4N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.8N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 36.4N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 114.2W.
19AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 612 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z,
201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 192043
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Hilary appears to be weakening quickly. The eye is filling
and the cloud tops in the eyewall and rainbands have been warming
during the past several hours. In addition, the hurricane has
become increasingly asymmetric with dry air continuing to wrap into
the western half of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane
Hunters have been investigating Hilary during the past few hours and
found that the minimum pressure has risen to 959 mb. Blending the
aircraft flight-level wind and SFMR data, as well as some of the
satellite estimates yields an initial intensity of 95 kt, but that
could be a little generous. Areas of heavy rain are already
spreading across portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern U.S. Hilary is also producing a large area of high
seas along the coast of Baja California and the Gulf of California,
with maximum significant wave heights estimated to be higher
than 40 ft.

The hurricane is still moving north-northwestward, or 345/15 kt. The
steering currents are well established and consist of a strong
mid-level high pressure area over the south-central U.S. and a mid-
to upper-level low off the central California coast. The flow
between these features should cause Hilary to accelerate to the
north-northwest or north during the next day or two, with the core
of the system reaching the central portion of the Baja California
Peninsula tonight and southern California Sunday afternoon or
evening. The NHC track forecast is largely the same as the previous
one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users are reminded
that the exact details of the track forecast, including where Hilary
might make landfall, are of little overall importance since strong
winds and heavy rainfall will extend far from the center. These
hazards will also begin well in advance of the arrival of the
center.

Hilary is expected to continue weakening rather quickly while it
moves northward due to significantly cooler waters, drier air, and
an increase in vertical wind shear. However, Hilary is still
expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall or moves very near
the central portion of the Baja California Peninsula. There is high
confidence that Hilary will move into southern California as a
tropical storm.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations for flooding impacts should be completed as soon as
possible, as heavy rainfall will begin well in advance of the
center. In the Southwestern U.S., the potentially historic
amount of rainfall is expected to cause flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows.
Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding impacts are expected late
tonight through early Monday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west-central coast of
the Baja California Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Sunday morning, and are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area on Sunday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Sunday in
portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm
Warning area. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and
near areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread
well inland across the western U.S.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 23.8N 114.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 26.4N 114.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 30.8N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 36.4N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 192043
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...HEAVY RAINS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 114.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 114.1 West. Hilary is moving
toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across
southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but Hilary will still
be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical
storm before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km). A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 61
mph (98 km/h) were recently reported at Puerto Cortes.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula
through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally
catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of
the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States,
peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to
catastrophic flooding is expected. Elsewhere across portions of the
Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
expected, resulting in localized significant flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the
hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
California on Sunday.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday
through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning
through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley,
Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 192042
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 114.1W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......230NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 390SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 114.1W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.4N 114.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.8N 116.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.4N 117.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 114.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 191741
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1200 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...HILARY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 113.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...570 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 113.9 West. Hilary is
moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The
hurricane is expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward
to northward during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the
center of Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the
Baja California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move
across southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected, but Hilary will still
be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical
storm before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km). A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to
52 mph (83 km/h) were recently reported at the Cabo San Lucas
Marina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula
through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally
catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of
the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States,
peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to
catastrophic flooding is expected. Elsewhere across portions of the
Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
expected, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the
hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
California Sunday afternoon.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland near and
along the forecast track.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday
through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning
through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley,
Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 113.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 113.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.6N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 28.3N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 33.4N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 39.6N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 113.6W.
19AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 702 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
191200Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z
IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 191444
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Although Hilary continues to maintain a well-defined circular eye,
the convective pattern has become increasingly asymmetric during the
past several hours. Deep convection has been eroding on the
system's west side as dry and stable air has been wrapping into
that portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates supports nudging the initial intensity downward
to 110 kt for this advisory. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate the system later today, and the data they
collect will provide a better assessment of Hilary's intensity and
structure.

The major hurricane continues to turn to the right, and the latest
initial motion is north-northwestward, or 345/14 kt. The steering
currents are well established and consist of a strong mid-level high
pressure area over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level
low off the central California coast. The flow between these
features should cause Hilary to accelerate to the north-northwest or
north during the next day or two, with the core of the system
reaching the central portion of the Baja California Peninsula
tonight and southern California Sunday afternoon or evening. Users
are reminded that the exact details of the track forecast, including
where Hilary might make landfall, are of little overall importance
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend far from the
center. These hazards will also begin well in advance of the
arrival of the center.

Hilary is expected to weaken quickly while it moves northward due to
significantly cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in vertical
wind shear. Even though weakening is anticipated, Hilary is still
expected to be a hurricane when it moves near or over the central
portion of the Baja California peninsula, but is expected to decay
to a tropical storm before it moves over southern California. The
intensity models are in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is
near the middle of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations for flooding impacts should be completed as soon as
possible, as heavy rainfall will begin well in advance of the
center. In the Southwestern U.S., the potentially historic
amount of rainfall is expected to cause flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows.
Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding impacts are expected late
tonight through early Monday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west-central coast of
the Baja California Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Sunday morning, and are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area on Sunday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Sunday afternoon
in portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm
Warning area. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and
near areas of higher terrain.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 22.3N 113.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 24.6N 114.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 28.3N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 33.4N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1200Z 39.6N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 191443
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...HILARY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 113.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 113.5 West. Hilary is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across
southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected, but Hilary will still
be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical
storm before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km). A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to
63 mph (102 km/h) were recently reported at the Cabo San Lucas
Marina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula
through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally
catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of
the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States,
peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to
catastrophic flooding is expected. Elsewhere across portions of the
Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
expected, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the
hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
California Sunday afternoon.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland near and
along the forecast track.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday
through early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning
through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley,
Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 191443
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 113.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......230NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 450SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 113.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 190SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 115.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.4N 116.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.6N 117.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 113.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 191154
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
600 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 113.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 113.4 West. Hilary is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster motion
toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today,
followed by an even faster motion toward the north by Sunday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the
west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula tonight and on
Sunday and move across southern California Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected to begin today, but
Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula tonight and Sunday morning. Hilary
is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by midday Sunday before it
reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km). A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to
62 mph (100 km/h) were recently reported at the Cabo San Lucas
Marina.

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 943 mb (27.85
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, will be likely,
especially in the northern portions of the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States, peaking on Sunday, and possibly lasting
through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated
amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern
California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to locally catastrophic
flooding will be likely. Elsewhere across portions of the Western
United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected,
resulting in localized flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the
hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area today and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
California on Sunday.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over parts of the
lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave Desert and Imperial Valley
regions.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and
southern California over the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.2N 113.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 113.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.8N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.2N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.6N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 36.4N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 42.6N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 113.3W.
19AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 781 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
190600Z IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS
45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 190848
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Hilary continues to display a large and well-defined eye, surrounded
by very cold convective cloud tops of -75 degrees Celsius. There
has been some noticeable thinning of the convection on the western
side of the circulation, which could indicate that the hurricane is
beginning to pull down cooler, more stable air from the north. That
said, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 128 kt, which still supports an initial
intensity of 115 kt. The plane also found that the central pressure
has dropped slightly to 943 mb.

Hilary continues to move toward the north-northwest, or 335/11 kt.
Southerly flow between a large mid-level high over the Central
Plains and a cut-off low near the central California coast is
expected to accelerate Hilary north-northwestward and then
northward during the next 48 hours, with its forward motion likely
reaching 25-30 kt by the time the system reaches southern
California on Sunday. In fact, the track guidance has sped up
again on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is a little
faster than the previous forecast after 24 hours. Users are
reminded that the exact details of the track forecast, including
where Hilary might make landfall, are of little overall importance
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend far from the
center. These hazards will also begin well in advance of the
arrival of the center.

The degradation of the convection on Hilary's western side probably
suggests that weakening will begin very soon. Hilary's circulation
will begin moving over sea surface temperatures colder than 26
degrees Celsius later this morning, and the cooler waters and
corresponding more stable air mass are likely to cause fast
weakening over the next couple of days. Hilary is expected to pass
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula still
as a hurricane tonight, but then weaken to a tropical storm by
Sunday while it's moving near the northwestern coast of the
peninsula. Hilary will still be producing tropical-storm-force
winds when it reaches southern California on Sunday. The
circulation is likely to dissipate around or soon after 48 hours,
but a 60-hour forecast point is still provided for track continuity.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary will begin well in advance
of the center, from the Baja California Peninsula into the
Southwestern United States. Preparations for the impacts of flooding
from rainfall should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rain
will increase ahead of the center today. In the Southwestern United
States, flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is expected, with
dangerous and locally catastrophic impacts likely from tonight into
Monday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west-central coast of
the Baja California Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Sunday morning, and are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area on Sunday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Sunday in
southern California within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Winds
could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of higher
terrain.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and
southern California over the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 20.9N 113.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 22.8N 113.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 26.2N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 30.6N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...W COAST OF BAJA CALIF
48H 21/0600Z 36.4N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/1800Z 42.6N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 190847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 113.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 113.3 West. Hilary is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster motion
toward the north-northwest is expected to begin today, followed by
an even faster motion toward the north by Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the
west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula tonight and on
Sunday and move across southern California Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected to begin today, but
Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula tonight and Sunday morning.
Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by midday Sunday
before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km). A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph
(100 km/h) were recently reported at the Cabo San Lucas Marina.

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter data from a few hours ago is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, will be likely,
especially in the northern portions of the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States, peaking on Sunday, and possibly lasting
through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated
amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern
California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to locally catastrophic
flooding will be likely. Elsewhere across portions of the Western
United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected,
resulting in localized flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the
hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area today and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
California on Sunday.

Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over parts of the
lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave Desert and Imperial Valley
regions.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and
southern California over the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 190847
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 113.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......230NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 420SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 113.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 190SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.2N 114.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.6N 116.0W...W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.4N 117.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.6N 117.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 113.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 190557
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1200 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT HILARY IS STILL A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 113.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of
Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 113.0 West. Hilary
is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through today. A faster motion
toward the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the
west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula on Sunday and
reach southern California by Sunday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected to begin
later today, but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula tonight and Sunday.
Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday
before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to
51 mph (81 km/h) was recently reported at the Cabo San Lucas Marina.

Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum central pressure is 946 mb
(27.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, will be likely,
especially in the northern portions of the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States through early next week, peaking on
Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated
amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern
California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to locally catastrophic
flooding will be likely. Elsewhere across portions of the Western
United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected,
resulting in localized flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the
hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are beginning
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area today and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
California on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and
southern California over the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 190400
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 112.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 112.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.4N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.2N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 27.6N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.1N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 37.8N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 112.8W.
19AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 848 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z,
191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 190251
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

Hilary's cloud pattern has not changed much since earlier today.
The hurricane continues to exhibit a large 30-35 n mi wide eye with
a surrounding ring of deep convection with clouds tops around -75
degrees Celsius. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 115 kt. The next
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is currently en route, and
it should provide a better assessment of Hilary's intensity and
structure overnight.

Hilary has turned north-northwestward with an initial motion
estimate of 335/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged
from before. Hilary is forecast to turn northward and begin to
accelerate on Saturday as it is steered by deep-layer southerly flow
between a strong subtropical ridge over the south-central United
States and an upper-level low off the coast of central California.
The models have again trended slightly faster, and the NHC foreast
has been adjusted accordingly. The NHC track forecast brings the
center near the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula
in about 36 hours, and along the northwestern coast of the peninsula
in 48 hours. This is near the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance envelope. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact
details of the track forecast as strong winds and heavy rainfall
will extend far from the center. These hazards will begin well in
advance of the arrival of the center.

Hilary has likely peaked in intensity, and weakening is expected to
begin on Saturday as it moves over cooler SSTs. A faster rate of
weakening is likely to begin by 24 hours as Hilary moves over
SSTs less than 26C and the vertical wind shear begins to increase.
However, Hilary is forecast to be a large hurricane when it passes
near the west-central coast of the Baja Peninsula, and a
tropical storm when it nears the U.S./Mexico border. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
close to the IVCN consensus model.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary will begin well in advance
of the center, from the Baja California Peninsula into the
Southwestern United States. Preparations for the impacts of flooding
from rainfall should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rain
will increase ahead of the center on Saturday. In the Southwestern
United States, flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is expected, with
dangerous and locally catastrophic impacts likely.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula Saturday night and are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Sunday in
portions of southern California where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and
southern California over the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 19.7N 112.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 21.4N 113.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 24.2N 114.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 27.6N 115.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 32.1N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/1200Z 37.8N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 190250
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 112.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from the California/Mexico border to Point
Mugu, including Catalina Island has been changed to a Tropical
Storm Warning.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along
the west coast of the Baja Peninsula peninsula from Cabo San Quintin
to the California/Mexico border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Baja California from Cabo San Quintin northward to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of
Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 112.7 West. Hilary is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through Saturday. A faster motion toward
the north-northwest and north is expected Saturday night and
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close
to the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula on
Sunday and reach southern California by Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday,
but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.
Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday
before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, will be likely,
especially in the northern portions of the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States through early next week, peaking on
Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated
amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern
California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to locally catastrophic
flooding will be likely. Elsewhere across portions of the Western
United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected,
resulting in localized flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Saturday night and are possible within the
hurricane watch by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area tonight, and are possible within
the watch area in Mexico on Saturday and Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in southern California on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and
southern California over the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 190249
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......220NE 200SE 110SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 390SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.4N 113.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.2N 114.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.6N 115.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.1N 116.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.8N 117.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 112.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 182349
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
600 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...OUTER BANDS FROM HILARY SPREADING ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 112.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas
* Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of
Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 112.4 West. Hilary is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a faster motion
toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Hilary will move close to the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula over the weekend and reach southern California
by Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely through
tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday, but Hilary
will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the
Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Hilary is
expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday before it
reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km). An automated weather station on Socorro Island has
measured peak sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to
79 mph (128 km/h) today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, will be possible,
especially in the northern portions of the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday
and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California
and southern Nevada. Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding will
be possible. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United
States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in
localized flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Saturday night and are possible within the
hurricane watch by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area tonight, and are possible
within the watch area in Mexico on Saturday and Sunday and in
southern California beginning late Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and
south California over the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 182200
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 111.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 111.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.3N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.6N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.6N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 29.4N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 34.1N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 39.3N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 112.3W.
18AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 914 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190400Z,
191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 182046
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

Hilary remains a large and powerful major hurricane. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters sampled the northern portion of Hilary and found a
higher minimum pressure than expected of 948 mb, 700 mb flight-level
winds of 113 kt, and peak SFMR surface winds of 93 kt. However, the
aircraft did not sample the southern half of the circulation, which
currently has some of the deepest convection. Blending the available
aircraft data and latest satellite intensity estimates yields an
initial intensity of 115 kt.

Hilary continues to slowly bend to the right, and the initial motion
is northwestward or 315/10 kt. A general north-northwest to north
motion with a steady increase in forward speed is expected tonight
and through the weekend as the system is steered by pronounced
steering flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the
south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central
California coast. The models have trended faster this cycle, and
the NHC forecast has followed suit. Based on the latest forecast,
the core of Hilary is expected to be very near the central portion
of Baja California Saturday night and move inland over southern
California by Sunday night. It should be noted that strong winds and
heavy rains will occur well ahead of the center.

Fluctuations in the hurricane's strength are expected through
tonight, but Hilary is expected to begin weakening on Saturday as it
moves over progressively cooler SSTs and into an environment of
increasing shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is lower
than the previous one, partially due to the lower initial intensity,
and a little higher than the HCCA and IVCN models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary will begin well in advance
of the center, from the Baja California Peninsula into the
Southwestern United States. Preparations for the impacts of flooding
from rainfall should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rain
will increase ahead of the center on Saturday. In the Southwestern
United States, flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is expected, with
the potential for dangerous and locally catastrophic impacts.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula Saturday night and are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible by late Sunday in
portions of southern California where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and
south California over the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.7N 112.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 114.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 29.4N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 34.1N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/1800Z 39.3N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 182046
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 112.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning on the west coast of Baja California northward
to Cabo San Quintin and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning north of Loreto on the east coast of Baja
California and north of Guaymas in mainland Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward from the
Orange/Los Angeles County Line to Point Mugu.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas
* Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of
Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 112.2 West. Hilary is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a faster
motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west coast of the
Baja California peninsula over the weekend and reach southern
California by Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely through
tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday, but Hilary
will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Hilary
is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday before
it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, will be possible,
especially in the northern portions of the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday
and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California
and southern Nevada. Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding will
be possible. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United
States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in
localized flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Saturday night and are possible within the
hurricane watch by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area tonight, and are possible
within the watch area in Mexico on Saturday and Sunday and in
southern California beginning late Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and
south California over the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 182045
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.4N 116.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.1N 117.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 112.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 181746
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1200 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...HILARY NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 111.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...110 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Punta Eugenia to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula from Loreto southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Loreto
* Mainland Mexico north of Huatabampito
* Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border
* California/Mexico border to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line
* Catalina Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of
Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 111.8 West. Hilary is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected today and tonight, followed by a faster
motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west coast of the
Baja California peninsula over the weekend and reach southern
California by Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the
next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday, but
Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Hilary
is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday afternoon before
it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290
miles (465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday
and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California
and southern Nevada. Rare and dangerous flooding will be possible.
Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area Saturday night and are possible within the hurricane
watch by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area by late today, and are possible within the
watch area in Mexico on Saturday and in southern California
beginning Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 181600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 111.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 111.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.2N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.3N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.8N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.4N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 35.2N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 111.6W.
18AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 974 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS
939 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 56 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z. REFER TO POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 181451
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

After an impressive 70-kt increase in winds over the past 24 hours,
Hilary's intensity has leveled off. Satellite data indicate that
Hilary remains an impressive major hurricane with a 15-20 n mi
diameter eye and symmetric convective cloud pattern surrounding that
feature. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates
support holding the initial intensity steady at 125 kt. Microwave
data is showing some signs of a double eyewall structure, which is
quite common in strong hurricanes like Hilary. Hilary is quite
large with its tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 250 n mi
from the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to
investigate the hurricane later today, and the data they collect
will provide a better assessment of the system's strength and
structure.

Hilary has turned to the northwest with the initial motion estimated
to be 305/9 kt. A general north-northwest to north motion with a
steady increase in forward speed is expected later today and through
the weekend as the system is steered by the flow between a strong
subtropical ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to
upper-level low off the central California coast. This pattern
should take the core of Hilary near the central Baja California
Peninsula coast Saturday night and then inland over southern
California Sunday night. The models are in fairly good agreement,
and little change was made to the previous track forecast. It
should be noted that strong winds and heavy rains will occur well
ahead of the center.

Fluctuations in the hurricane's strength are expected today, but
Hilary is expected to begin weakening late tonight as it moves over
progressively cooler SSTs and into an environment of increasing
shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA
and IVCN models and is largely an update of the previous one.

Based on the forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for
portions of southern California. This is the first time NHC has
issued a watch for that region. Supplemental soundings (weather
balloons) are being launched by much of the National Weather Service
offices across the western U.S. This effort is highly appreciated
as the data should help provide a better assessment of the
environment and steering pattern ahead of Hilary.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary could produce areas of
flash flooding and result in landslides over portions of the Baja
California Peninsula late tonight through late Sunday. Rainfall
impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are
expected to peak this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding is expected, with the potential for rare and dangerous
impacts.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula on Sunday and are possible in the Hurricane
Watch area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Sunday in portions of
southern California where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.

4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These swells
will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of the Baja
California Peninsula later this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 111.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 19.2N 112.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 21.3N 113.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 23.7N 114.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 26.8N 115.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 30.4N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 35.2N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 181450
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 111.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Baja
California peninsula from north of Punta Eugenia to Ensenada.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino northward and from Loreto northward
and from north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the California/Mexico
border to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line and for Catalina
Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Punta Eugenia to Ensenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula from Loreto southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Loreto
* Mainland Mexico north of Huatabampito
* Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border
* California/Mexico border to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line
* Catalina Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of
Hilary.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 111.4 West. Hilary is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected today and tonight, followed by a
faster motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend and reach
southern California by Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the
next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday, but
Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Hilary
is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday afternoon before
it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday
and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California
and southern Nevada. Rare and dangerous flooding will be possible.
Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area Saturday night and are possible within the hurricane
watch by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area by late today, and are possible within the
watch area in Mexico on Saturday and in southern California
beginning Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 181450
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......250NE 170SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.3N 113.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 114.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.4N 116.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.2N 117.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 111.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 181135
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
600 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...HILARY REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 111.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Punta Abreojos to San Jose de
Las Palmas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula from Loreto southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Loreto to Bahia de Los Angeles
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula, along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico, and the southwestern United
States coastline should closely monitor the progress of Hilary.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions
of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 111.0 West. Hilary is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is expected today and tonight,
followed by a faster motion toward the north Saturday night and
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close
to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend
and reach southern California by Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the
next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday, but
Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Hilary
is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday afternoon before
it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290
miles (465 km). Over the past few hours, an automated Mexican navy
station on Socorro Island measured a sustained wind of 35 mph (56
km/h) and a wind gust to 59 mph (94 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday
and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California
and southern Nevada, which would lead to significant and rare
impacts. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States,
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Saturday night or Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area by late today, and are possible
within the watch area by early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding along the
western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center
passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if
Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 181000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 110.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 110.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.3N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.2N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.4N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.3N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 28.7N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.9N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 43.6N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
181000Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 110.9W.
18AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1021 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z
IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 53 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z. REFER TO POST
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER
TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GREG) (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 180858
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

Hilary's satellite presentation has continued to improve overnight,
with a solid ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a warming eye.
TAFB and SAB provided consensus Dvorak estimates of T6.0/115 kt
while objective estimates are a bit higher, between 125-135 kt.
The advisory intensity is therefore set at 125 kt as a blend
of the various estimates. Hilary has rapidly intensified by a
remarkable 65 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane remains
large, and the initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a
recent ASCAT-C pass. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Hilary around midday and
should provide a more precise estimate of the hurricane's intensity.

The hurricane continues to move toward the west-northwest, or 300/11
kt. However, with mid-tropospheric high pressure nudging eastward
from the Rocky Mountains into the Central Plains, and a cut-off low
off the California coast, Hilary is expected to turn northwestward
very soon and then turn northward and begin accelerating by 48
hours. The track guidance is more tightly clustered than usual
during the first 72 hours of the forecast, and therefore there is
relatively high confidence in the NHC track forecast, which is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Since Hilary's
forecast track parallels the coast from the central Baja California
peninsula northward to southern California, it is still nearly
impossible to predict an exact landfall location, not to mention
that Hilary's exact landfall probably won't make much difference
when it comes to the expected hazards and impacts in the region.

Hilary could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours or
so. However, once hurricanes reach major hurricane strength, they
are prone to fluctuations in intensity, particularly if an eyewall
replacement begins. In addition, oceanic heat content will be
dropping significantly in 24-36 hours, and it's likely that Hilary's
large wind field will mix up cooler water ahead of the arrival of
the center. This colder water, as well as potential interaction
with the terrain of the Baja California peninsula, is expected to
induce faster weakening over the weekend, with Hilary likely to drop
below hurricane intensity some time on Sunday. Due to its
accelerating motion in 2 to 3 days, Hilary is still expected to be
producing tropical-storm-force winds when it reaches southern
California. The surface circulation is likely to dissipate soon
after moving into California, but a day 4 remnant low point is still
shown over the western U.S. for continuity purposes.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of the Baja
California Peninsula from late today into late Sunday. Rainfall
impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are
expected to peak this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding is expected with the potential for significant impacts.

2. The threat of hurricane-force wind impacts is increasing along
the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin across the southern portion of the Baja California
Peninsula later today and then spread northward through the weekend.

3. The threat of significant wind impacts continues to increase for
the northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern United States, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Watches could
be issued for portions of this area, including along the southern
California coast, later today.

4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These
swells will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula later this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.2N 110.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.3N 112.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 20.2N 113.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 22.4N 114.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 25.3N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 28.7N 115.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 32.9N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/0600Z 43.6N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 180857
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...HILARY IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 110.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning on
the west side of the Baja California peninsula to Punta Abreojos and
on the east side of the Baja California peninsula to Loreto.

The Hurricane Watch on the west side of the Baja California
peninsula has been extended northward to San Jose de Las Palmas.

The Tropical Storm Watch on the east side of the Baja California
peninsula has been extended northward to Bahia de Los Angeles. A
Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for mainland Mexico from
Huatabampito to Bahia Kino.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Punta Abreojos to San Jose de
Las Palmas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula from Loreto southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Loreto to Bahia de Los Angeles
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula, along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico, and the southwestern United
States coastline should closely monitor the progress of Hilary.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions
of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 110.8 West. Hilary is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is expected today and tonight,
followed by a faster motion toward the north Saturday night and
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move
close to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula over the
weekend and reach southern California by Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
likely over the next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by
Saturday, but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and
Sunday. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday
afternoon before it reaches southern California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km). Over the past few hours, an automated Mexican navy
station on Socorro Island measured a sustained wind of 38 mph (61
km/h) and a wind gust to 64 mph (102 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday
and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California
and southern Nevada, which would lead to significant and rare
impacts. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States,
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Saturday night or Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area by late today, and are possible
within the watch area by early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding along the
western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center
passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if
Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 180856
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 110.8W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......250NE 170SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 110.8W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 112.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.2N 113.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 190SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.4N 114.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.3N 114.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.9N 116.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 43.6N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 110.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 180552
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1200 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...HILARY REACHES CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 110.4W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur North of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos
* Baja California Sur North of Los Barriles to Bahia San Juan
Bautista

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula, along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico, and the southwestern United
States coastline should closely monitor the progress of Hilary.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions
of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 110.4 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected to begin later this morning,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja
California peninsula over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid intensification is
expected to continue through this morning. Hilary should begin to
weaken on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290
miles (465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States through early next week, peaking on
Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated
amounts of 10 inches, will be possible across portions of southern
California and southern Nevada. Elsewhere across western Arizona,
southwest Utah, central Nevada, and central California, rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Saturday night or Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area by late today, and are possible
within the watch area by early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding along the
western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center
passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if
Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 180518
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 7...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Hilary continues to rapidly intensify. The presentation on infrared
satellite imagery has become very impressive, and the hurricane now
has a thick ring of -70 to -75 C eyewall cloud tops surrounding the
eye which continues to warm. Earlier AMSR2 and GMI microwave imagery
showed a similarly impressive structure, with a solid eyewall on
both 89-GHz and 37-GHz channels. While the most recent subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates are constrained from increasing as much
as the satellite presentation would suggest, the objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS have been rapidly increasing, with the latest
estimate from ADT at T6.3/122 kt, AiDT at 112 kt, and 107 kt from
D-PRINT. Hilary's initial intensity will be set at 110 kt for this
advisory, favoring the objective estimates.

The hurricane has maintained a west-northwestward motion tonight,
estimated at 300/12 kt. The mid-level ridge currently steering
Hilary is soon forecast to shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level
cutoff low swings in from the west and parks itself near the
central California coast. This pattern should result in Hilary
starting to turn northwestward and the north-northwestward over the
next 24-36 hours. A turn more northward should begin by this weekend
with some gradual acceleration as the hurricane is captured
downstream of the cutoff low. The track guidance this cycle remains
tightly clustered, and only slight adjustments to the forecast track
were made this cycle. This track forecast remains in good agreement
with the corrected consensus aid (HCCA). Since the forecast track
continues to be roughly parallel to the coastline north of the
central Baja peninsula to the California border, it very difficult
to know if the center will remain just offshore or move over the
peninsula before reaching the southwestern United States.

The rapid intensification episode of Hilary is expected to continue
for at least another 12 hours, and the latest forecast intensity now
takes the hurricane to 130 kt in that time frame. Afterwards, there
is an interesting difference between the statistical-dynamical
models (SHIPS and LGEM) which show a peak intensity in about 24
hours, and the hurricane-regional models which show a peak a bit
earlier before gradual weakening begins. While there are few signs
of an imminent eyewall replacement cycle based on the last few
microwave passes, it is possible one could occur in another day or
so. The large 34-kt wind field of the hurricane could also start to
upwell some cooler waters out ahead of the inner core in 24-36
hours. Thus, some gradual weakening is now forecast to begin during
this time period with a faster rate of weakening as the hurricane
crosses a sharp temperature gradient to the west of the Baja
Californian peninsula. The official forecast is above the intensity
guidance in the short-term, but falls back to the consensus aids
beyond 36 h. The surface circulation is likely to dissipate as it
pushes far inland in 96 hours, but a point as a remnant low will
still be shown to maintain a forecast track over the southwestern
United States.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of the Baja
California Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall
impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are
expected to peak this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding is possible with the potential for significant impacts.

2. The threat of hurricane-force wind impacts is increasing along
the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and the
government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch for a portion of
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to spread across the southern portion of the
Baja California Peninsula by late Friday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

3. The threat of significant wind impacts continues to increase for
the northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern United States, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Watches could
be issued for portions of this area on Friday.

4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These
swells will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula later this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 110.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.7N 111.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.4N 112.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 21.5N 113.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 24.0N 114.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 27.2N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 116.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 39.0N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.7N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.4N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.5N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.0N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 27.2N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.7N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 39.0N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 110.1W.
18AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1061 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81800Z IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z,
181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GREG) (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 180247
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Hilary continues to rapidly intensify. The presentation on infrared
satellite imagery has become very impressive, and the hurricane now
has a thick ring of -70 to -75 C eyewall cloud tops surrounding the
eye which continues to warm. Earlier AMSR2 and GMI microwave imagery
showed a similarly impressive structure, with a solid eyewall on
both 89-GHz and 37-GHz channels. While the most recent subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates are constrained from increasing as much
as the satellite presentation would suggest, the objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS have been rapidly increasing, with the latest
estimate from ADT at T6.3/122 kt, AiDT at 112 kt, and 107 kt from
D-PRINT. Hilda's initial intensity will be set at 110 kt for this
advisory, favoring the objective estimates.

The hurricane has maintained a west-northwestward motion tonight,
estimated at 300/12 kt. The mid-level ridge currently steering Hilda
is soon forecast to shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level cutoff
low swings in from the west and parks itself near the central
California coast. This pattern should result in Hilary starting to
turn northwestward and the north-northwestward over the next 24-36
hours. A turn more northward should begin by this weekend with some
gradual acceleration as the hurricane is captured downstream of the
cutoff low. The track guidance this cycle remains tightly
clustered, and only slight adjustments to the forecast track were
made this cycle. This track forecast remains in good agreement with
the corrected consensus aid (HCCA). Since the forecast track
continues to be roughly parallel to the coastline north of the
central Baja peninsula to the California border, it very difficult
to know if the center will remain just offshore or move over the
peninsula before reaching the southwestern United States.

The rapid intensification episode of Hilary is expected to continue
for at least another 12 hours, and the latest forecast intensity now
takes the hurricane to 130 kt in that time frame. Afterwards, there
is an interesting difference between the statistical-dynamical
models (SHIPS and LGEM) which show a peak intensity in about 24
hours, and the hurricane-regional models which show a peak a bit
earlier before gradual weakening begins. While there are few signs
of an imminent eyewall replacement cycle based on the last few
microwave passes, it is possible one could occur in another day or
so. The large 34-kt wind field of the hurricane could also start to
upwell some cooler waters out ahead of the inner core in 24-36
hours. Thus, some gradual weakening is now forecast to begin during
this time period with a faster rate of weakening as the hurricane
crosses a sharp temperature gradient to the west of the Baja
Californian peninsula. The official forecast is above the intensity
guidance in the short-term, but falls back to the consensus aids
beyond 36 h. The surface circulation is likely to dissipate as it
pushes far inland in 96 hours, but a point as a remnant low will
still be shown to maintain a forecast track over the southwestern
United States.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of the Baja
California Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall
impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are
expected to peak this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding is possible with the potential for significant impacts.

2. The threat of hurricane-force wind impacts is increasing along
the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and the
government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch for a portion of
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to spread across the southern portion of the
Baja California Peninsula by late Friday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

3. The threat of significant wind impacts continues to increase for
the northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern United States, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Watches could
be issued for portions of this area on Friday.

4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These
swells will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula later this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 110.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.7N 111.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.4N 112.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 21.5N 113.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 24.0N 114.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 27.2N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 116.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 39.0N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 180245
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...HILARY CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 110.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch on the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia, and has extended the Tropical Storm Watch northward
on the east of the Baja California peninsula to Bahia San Juan
Bautista.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur North of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos
* Baja California Sur North of Los Barriles to Bahia San Juan
Bautista

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula, along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico, and the southwestern United
States coastline should closely monitor the progress of Hilary.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions
of these areas on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 110.0 West. Hilary is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected to begin tomorrow morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California
peninsula over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Hilary is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid intensification is
expected to continue through tomorrow morning, and Hilary is likely
to become a category 4 hurricane. Hilary should then begin to weaken
on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches,
with isolated amounts of 10 inches, will be possible across portions
of southern California and southern Nevada. Elsewhere across western
Arizona, southwest Utah, central Nevada, and central California,
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Saturday night or Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area by late Friday, and are possible
within the watch area by early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding along the
western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center
passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if
Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 180244
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.0W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.0W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.7N 111.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N 112.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.5N 113.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 210SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.7N 116.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 39.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 110.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 172346
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
600 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...HILARY BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 109.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos
* North of Los Barriles to Loreto

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula, along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico, and the southwestern United
States coastline should closely monitor the progress of Hilary.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions
of these areas later tonight and Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 109.5 West. Hilary is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Hilary will approach the Baja California peninsula over
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. This makes Hilary a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening
is forecast during the next day or so, and Hilary is likely to
become a category 4 hurricane tomorrow.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches,
with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Friday, and are possible within the watch area by
early Saturday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.0N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.4N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.3N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.4N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.0N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 28.5N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 35.4N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 43.0N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172200Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 109.1W.
17AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1119 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81718Z IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z,
181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 172056
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Hilary has an impressive appearance on satellite imagery. The
eye, which is becoming better defined, is surrounded by very cold
cloud tops in the CDO. There are numerous convective banding
features, especially over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over all but the
northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Recent objective Dvorak
T-numbers support an intensity of about 95 kt, which is used for
this advisory.

The hurricane continues to move on a west-northwestward track with
an initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Global models indicate
that a mid-tropospheric ridge currently situated to the north of
Hilary will shift eastward over the next few days while a cutoff
low remains near the California coast. This should result in a
steering pattern that will cause the system to gradually turn
toward the northwest, north-northwest, and north with increasing
forward speed during the next 72 hours. The official forecast
track has not changed much from the past few advisory packages, and
is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus
solutions. Since the forecast track is roughly paralleling the
coastline north of the central Baja peninsula to the California
border, it nearly impossible to know at this point if the
center will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before
reaching the southwestern United States.

Hilary is over very warm waters, near 30 deg C, with extremely
low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to low-level atmospheric
environment. Therefore additional intensification is highly
likely for the next day or so. The various SHIPS rapid
intensification (RI) indices continue to show high probabilities of
RI during the next day or so. The most likely indicated intensity
increase is around 25 kt over the next 24 hours, which is also shown
in the NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters
and land interaction should result in some weakening. The official
wind speed forecast remain near or above latest HCCA guidance. The
surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by day 5, but a day 5
forecast point (as a remnant low) is still provided to maintain a
forecast track over the southwestern United States.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of Baja California
Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall impacts from
Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak
this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is
possible with the potential for significant impacts.

2. The threat of hurricane-force wind impacts is increasing along
the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula and
hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across
the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula by late Friday
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. The threat of significant wind impacts continues to increase for
the northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern United States, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Watches could
be issued for portions of this area on Friday.

4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These
swells will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula later this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 108.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 110.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 22.4N 113.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 25.0N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 28.5N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.4N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1800Z 43.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 172055
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...HILARY APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 108.9W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
northward on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
to Punta Abreojos, and northward on the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula to Loreto.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos
* North of Los Barriles to Loreto

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula, along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico, and the southwestern United
States coastline should closely monitor the progress of Hilary.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions
of these areas later tonight and Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 108.9 West. Hilary is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Hilary will approach the Baja California peninsula over
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Hilary is likely to become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches,
with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Friday, and are possible within the watch area by
early Saturday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 172054
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 35.4N 118.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 43.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 171740
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...HILARY NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 108.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Hilary. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 108.4 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California
peninsula over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Hilary is likely to become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches,
with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Friday, and are possible within the watch area by
early Saturday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 107.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 107.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.4N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.6N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.3N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.2N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.6N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.6N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.4N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 41.0N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 107.9W.
17AUG23. HURRICANE 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z
IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z. REFER TO
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR FINAL
WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 171500
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Hilary has continued to intensify rapidly. The cloud pattern of
this large hurricane is very impressive, with extremely intense
deep convection and cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder.
Well-defined banding features are evident over all quadrants of the
circulation. The upper-level outflow pattern is quite symmetric and
expanding. Satellite intensity estimates are wide-ranging and
the Dvorak technique rules do not allow subjective current
intensity estimates much above 65-70 kt. However based on data
T-numbers the advisory intensity is set, perhaps conservatively, to
75 kt.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or about 300/12 kt.
Over the next few days, a mid-level ridge to the north of Hilary
is forecast to shift eastward while a mid-level low remains near
the California coast. This evolution of the steering currents
should result in a gradual turn toward the north in a couple of
days, which would bring Hilary near the Baja California peninsula
in 72 hours or so and near the U.S./California border in 3-4 days.
The official forecast track is very similar to the previous one,
and follows the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. Although
there is fairly high confidence in the track prediction, Hilary's
oblique angle of approach to the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula makes it nearly impossible to know at this point if the
center will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before
reaching the southwestern United States.

Hilary is in an environment of low shear and high mid- to low-level
humidity, and over very warm waters. The SHIPS rapid
intensification (RI) indices show extremely high probabilities of
rapid intensification during the next day or so. Therefore the
official intensity forecast shows a 40-kt increase over the next 24
hours. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters and land
interaction should result in some weakening. The official wind
speed forecast is near or a little above the latest HCCA guidance.
The surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by day 5, but a
day 5 forecast point (as a remnant low) is still provided to
maintain a forecast track over southern California.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of Baja California
Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall impacts from
Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak
this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding, is
possible with the potential for significant impacts.

2. Hilary has the potential to bring significant impacts to the
Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United
States this weekend and early next week, including after it becomes
post-tropical. Although it is too soon to determine the location
and magnitude of wind impacts, interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast.
Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are now in effect for
southern portions of Baja California Sur, and additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

3. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 15.5N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.4N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.6N 111.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 19.3N 112.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 21.2N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 23.6N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 26.6N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 33.4N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1200Z 41.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 171458
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...HILARY CONTINUES STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 107.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
southern portion of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro
southward on the west coast and Los Barriles southward on the east
coast. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito on the west coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Hilary. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 107.8 West. Hilary is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Hilary will approach the Baja California peninsula over
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Hilary could become a major hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches,
with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Friday, and are possible within the watch area by
early Saturday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 171457
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.8W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.8W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.4N 109.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.6N 111.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.2N 113.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.6N 114.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 140SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 33.4N 116.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 41.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 107.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 171200 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 4A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
600 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Corrected header to show hurricane

...HILARY BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 107.1W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Hilary. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 107.1 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California
peninsula over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Hilary
could become a major hurricane by tonight or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Friday night or early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across portions
of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday morning. Flash
flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 171156
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
600 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...HILARY BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 107.1W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Hilary. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 107.1 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California
peninsula over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Hilary
could become a major hurricane by tonight or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Friday night or early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across portions
of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday morning. Flash
flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 14.3N 105.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 105.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.5N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.7N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.1N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.9N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.0N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.6N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 31.6N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 39.1N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171000Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 106.5W.
17AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1268
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS
991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 170857
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Hilary is a large tropical storm. An elongated band of deep
convection curves around the southern and eastern side of the
circulation, and a Central Dense Overcast has begun to develop due
to new convection near Hilary's center, with possibly the formative
stages of an eye. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
have jumped to a consensus T3.5/55 kt, and given the improved
satellite presentation since 06 UTC, the initial intensity is set at
60 kt.

Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest (300/11 kt), to the south
of a mid-tropospheric high stretching from the U.S. Rockies
southward into northern Mexico. The ridge is expected to shift
eastward to the Central Plains during the next 48 hours, while a
mid- to upper-level low moves eastward to the California coast. This
steering pattern evolution should cause Hilary to recurve toward the
northwest and then north during the next 3 days. Model guidance is
in generally good agreement on Hilary's future path, with a fairly
tightly packed guidance envelope for much of the forecast period.
Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is very close to a blend of
the previous forecast with the HFIP Corrected Consensus aid (HCCA)
and the TVCE consensus. Despite the high confidence in the track,
Hilary's oblique angle of approach to the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula does make it nearly impossible to know at this
point if the center will remain just offshore or move over the
peninsula before reaching the southwestern United States.

Negligible shear, very warm waters of 30 degrees Celsius, and
plentiful atmospheric moisture mean the environment is ripe for
Hilary to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days. In
fact, many of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are
showing a 100 percent chance of RI during the next 48 hours. The
NHC intensity forecast follows this thinking and shows Hilary
becoming a hurricane very soon and then a major hurricane by tonight
or early Friday, more or less a blend of the HCCA aid and the SHIPS
solutions. Hilary should reach waters colder than 26 degrees
Celsius soon after 72 hours, and fast weakening is indicated after
that time, especially if the storm crosses over the Baja California
peninsula. The surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by
day 5, but a day 5 forecast point (as a remnant low) is still
provided to maintain a forecast track north of the Baja California
peninsula.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hilary has the potential to bring significant impacts to the
Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United
States this weekend and early next week, including after it becomes
post-tropical. Although it is too soon to determine the location
and magnitude of wind impacts, interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. A
Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for southern portions of Baja
California Sur, and additional watches or warnings will likely be
required later today.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of the Baja
California peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall
impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are
expected to peak on Sunday and Monday.

3. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 14.6N 106.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 16.7N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 19.9N 113.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 22.0N 113.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 24.6N 114.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 31.6N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/0600Z 39.1N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 170856
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...HILARY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
VERY SOON...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 106.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southern portion of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro
southward on the west coast and San Evaristo southward on the east
coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Hilary. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 106.3 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California
peninsula over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Hilary
will become a hurricane very soon. It could become a major
hurricane by tonight or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Friday night or early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across portions
of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday morning. Flash
flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 170856
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
0900 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.3W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.3W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 114.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 140SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 31.6N 116.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 39.1N 118.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 106.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 104.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 104.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.3N 106.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.5N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.8N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.5N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.6N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.3N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 34.3N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 105.3W.
17AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1364
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81700Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z,
171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 170245
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

This evening, Hilary appears to be getting its act together, with
its structure quickly improving. Satellite imagery shows a
well-defined curved band wrapping around the storm's southern
semicircle, with deep convection blossoming near the estimated
center. Earlier microwave imagery also suggested that a tighter
center might have reformed a bit further to the south, more
embedded in the deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak
estimates form TAFB and SAB were 35 kt at 0000 UTC. However, the
objective estimates have risen more quickly, with the most recent
ADT estimate at 49 kt, and SATCON at 48 kt. The initial intensity
this advisory is set at 45 kt, closer to these higher end
estimates.

While Hilary may have earlier reformed a bit closer to the
convection, its estimated motion still appears to be
west-northwestward, just a tad slower than earlier at 290/10 kt.
Initially, Hilary is being steered west-northwestward by a prominent
mid-level ridge draped between northwest Mexico and the four corners
region of the US. However, this ridging is expected to shift
eastward, allowing a large weakness to appear to the south of a
deep-layer cutoff low that remains parked just offshore of central
California. The net impact of this synoptic pattern evolution is
that Hilary will begin to turn to the northwest and north between
48-72 hours with some gradual acceleration as the tropical cyclone
is steered between the cutoff low to the west, and the mid-level
ridge to the east. While the track guidance this cycle shifted a bit
to the west in the short term, this is more a reflection of an
initial position adjustment, and the NHC track forecast was not
modified much from the prior cycle. This track forecast opts to
remain on the east side of the track guidance envelope, between the
consensus aids and the GFS forecast track. On this forecast track,
Hilary could pass near or over the Baja California peninsula
sometime over the weekend.

Assuming the storm is in the initial stages of developing an inner
core, Hilary appears poised to intensify, likely rapidly, over the
next couple of days. SHIPS-RII predictors are basically as high as
they can go, thanks in part to low shear, very warm sea-surface
temperatures, and high mid-level environmental moisture. In fact,
the latest SHIPS-RII cycle shows a 100 percent chance of a 45 kt
increase in intensity over the next 36 hours. That is verbatim what
the latest NHC intensity forecast shows, and Hilary is forecast to
become a major hurricane in a couple of days. After that time, the
large wind field of Hilary may begin to upwell some cooler waters,
with sea-surface temperatures dropping under 26 C between 72-96 h.
Possible land interaction may also begin to disrupt the core
structure of the storm during that time as it nears the Baja
California peninsula. A combination of these factors should
ultimately cause Hilary to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end
of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is in best
agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

As stated previously, it is important to remind users to not focus
on the exact forecast track and intensity of Hilary, especially in
the latter parts of the forecast period. Due to the forecast
parallel angle of approach to the Baja California peninsula, small
changes in the cross track position may result in large changes to
when and where the system ultimately approaches the coast.
Regardless, the large size of the cyclone means wind and rainfall
impacts are likely to extend far from the center of Hilary.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hilary has the potential to bring impacts to the Baja California
Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this
weekend. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of rainfall and wind impacts, interests in these areas
should monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast.
Watches may be required for parts of the Baja California Peninsula
as soon as tomorrow morning.

2. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 13.4N 105.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 14.3N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 15.5N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 16.8N 111.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 20.5N 113.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 22.6N 114.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 28.3N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 34.3N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 170240
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

...HILARY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 105.1W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress
of this system. Watches will likely be required for a portion of
that area as soon as tomorrow morning.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 105.1 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion should continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn
northwestward on Friday, and north-northwestward on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next
24-36 hours, and Hilary is forecast to become a major hurricane by
the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 170239
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 105.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 105SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 105.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.3N 106.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 109.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 55NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.8N 111.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.5N 113.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 22.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 28.3N 115.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 34.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 105.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 162200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 103.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 103.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.5N 105.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.6N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.8N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.2N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.0N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.3N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.8N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 34.3N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162200Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 103.9W.
16AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1389
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81618Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 162044
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Hilary has not changed much this afternoon. A large burst of
convection, with cloud top temperatures colder than -85 degrees C,
continues to obscure the low-level circulation and some outflow has
developed on the southern semicircle of the storm. Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 43 kt and
the initial intensity is remains at 35 kt.

The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 13 kt. Hilary is
forecast to gradually turn, first to the northwest by day 2 and
then to the north-northwest by day 3 with the same general forward
motion. This is likely driven by a building ridge over the United
States and a trough off the coast of California. The short-term
track prediction has shifted to the right of the previous forecast,
largely due to an adjustment in the rather uncertain initial
position. It is closest to the simple consensus aid, TVCE.

Strengthening is still expected due to the conducive atmospheric
conditions and warm sea surface temperatures. Hilary is forecast to
be in an area of weak vertical wind shear through 72-96 hours and
remain over warm waters through 72 hours. Therefore, steady to
rapid intensification is anticipated and the official forecast
shows Hilary becoming a hurricane in 24 hours. However, the system
is broad and it could take slightly longer to initially consolidate
and strengthen. Beyond day 3, Hilary is forecast to cross over a
gradient of cooling ocean waters which should induce a weakening
trend. The system is still expected to be post-tropical by the end
of the forecast period.

It is important to remind users to not focus on the exact forecast
track and intensity of Hilary, especially in the latter parts of the
forecast period. Due to the nearly parallel angle of approach to
the Baja California peninsula, small changes in the cross track
position may result in large changes to when and where the system
ultimately approaches the coast. Regardless, wind and rainfall
impacts are likely to extend far from the center of Hilary.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hilary has the potential to bring impacts to the Baja California
Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this
weekend. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of rainfall and wind impacts, interests in these areas
should monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast.

2. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the
next days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 13.7N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 14.5N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 15.6N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 16.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 20.0N 112.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 27.8N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 34.3N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 162043
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

...HILARY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 103.7W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this
system. Watches will likely be required for a portion of that area
as soon as this evening.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.7 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest
by Friday followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast for the next few days.
Hilary is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 162043
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 105.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.6N 107.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 112.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 160SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 27.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 34.3N 118.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160051ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 102.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 102.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.1N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.1N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.4N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.7N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.5N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.4N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.7N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.5N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161600Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 102.8W.
16AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1484
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z
IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 160100).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 161457
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

The disturbance south of the southern coast of Mexico has increased
in organization this morning. Satellite imagery indicates that it
has a well-defined circulation, with convective banding features
that are becoming better defined. Subjective Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB are at T1.5 and T2.0, respectively, however the
T-number from TAFB was constrained. First-light visible satellite
imagery confirms the organizing trend and, based on the improved
appearance of the cloud pattern over the past few hours, the system
is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hilary.

Hilary is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A building ridge over
the United States and a trough off the coast of California are the
main steering features affecting the storm. The tropical cyclone
is forecast to make a gradual turn to the northwest in 24 hours,
and then turn more northward between the trough and the western
periphery of the ridge by day 3. Global model guidance is
relatively well-clustered for the first 3 days, with some larger
cross-track differences by day 4 and beyond. The official track
forecast is closest to the simple and corrected consensus aids.

The environmental and oceanic conditions appear ripe for further
strengthening. Sea surface temperatures are at or near a warm 30
degrees C through 72 h, vertical wind shear is expected to be
weak, and the near-storm relative humidities are moist.
Statistical intensity guidance show high probabilities of rapid
intensification in the next couple of days. Therefore, the NHC
intensity prediction explicitly shows rapid intensification in the
first 24 hours and Hilary is expected to become a hurricane on
Thursday. However, the system is broad and it could take slightly
longer to consolidate and strengthen. The storm is likely to reach
its peak intensity in 60-72 hours. By day 4, the vertical wind
shear is forecast to increase and the track forecast moves Hilary
over waters cooler than 26 degree C. Convection will likely
collapse and the system is expected to become post-tropical by day
5.

It is important to remind users to not focus on the exact forecast
track and intensity of Hilary, especially in the latter parts of
the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hilary has the potential to bring impacts to the Baja California
Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this
weekend. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of rainfall and wind impacts, interests in these areas
should monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast.

2. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the
next days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.4N 102.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 13.1N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 14.1N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 15.4N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 18.5N 112.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 20.4N 113.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 25.7N 114.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 31.5N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Camposano


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 161456
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

...TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 102.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 102.6 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the
northwest in a day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast for the next few days.
Hilary is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 161456
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
1500 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.6W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.6W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.1N 104.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.1N 106.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.4N 108.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 113.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 160SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.7N 114.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 31.5N 116.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 102.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



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